RUN: 4DIG001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: MONG007L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: MONG007L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 113 1 Turgen-charchira mountai WIDTH_LATE LADA - 113 2 Mongolia Larch 2000 4942-9133 1570 1995 - 113 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 113021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1824 1830 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 113022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1816 1816 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 113051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1776 1777 / 1858 1858 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 113102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1671 1671 / 1830 1830 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 113111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1903 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 113112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1677 1677 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 113191 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 2 GAPS / 1735 1736 / 1786 1788 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 113192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1882 1888 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 113201 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1822 1824 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 113202 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1822 1824 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 113211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 2 GAPS / 1802 1807 / 1850 1851 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 113212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1682 1684 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 113011 1751 1956 206 0.227 0.203 2.705 12.361 0.412 0.707 2 113012 1736 1936 201 0.128 0.128 4.240 24.391 0.340 0.607 3 113021 1784 1982 199 0.207 0.147 2.165 9.130 0.419 0.640 4 113022 1766 1981 216 0.190 0.113 1.255 4.898 0.372 0.689 5 113051 1730 1959 230 0.182 0.148 1.487 4.408 0.342 0.789 6 113052 1751 1959 209 0.215 0.157 1.304 3.843 0.374 0.744 7 113061 1751 1995 245 0.174 0.162 2.512 10.778 0.426 0.688 8 113062 1751 1995 245 0.158 0.198 9.111109.832 0.400 0.312 9 113071 1755 1850 96 0.405 0.395 1.866 6.522 0.495 0.705 10 113072 1758 1973 216 0.248 0.216 2.339 10.139 0.463 0.694 11 113091 1755 1994 240 0.126 0.087 2.680 13.256 0.420 0.553 12 113092 1754 1994 241 0.154 0.099 1.820 7.154 0.459 0.492 13 113101 1613 1994 382 0.136 0.115 1.709 5.849 0.430 0.626 14 113102 1612 1994 383 0.138 0.160 4.069 27.147 0.382 0.727 15 113111 1601 1995 395 0.116 0.112 2.632 12.213 0.449 0.695 16 113112 1601 1994 394 0.083 0.085 3.621 18.525 0.407 0.755 17 113121 1760 1924 165 0.123 0.081 1.854 7.276 0.370 0.522 18 113122 1761 1958 198 0.107 0.094 2.201 8.006 0.388 0.681 19 113181 1752 1959 208 0.245 0.237 2.041 6.746 0.419 0.817 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 113182 1757 1963 207 0.318 0.260 1.456 4.448 0.477 0.689 21 113191 1570 1963 394 0.119 0.104 2.447 9.600 0.371 0.710 22 113192 1570 1964 395 0.121 0.091 1.920 7.326 0.391 0.627 23 113201 1792 1944 153 0.255 0.164 1.786 6.405 0.316 0.666 24 113202 1772 1954 183 0.265 0.157 2.257 12.664 0.356 0.627 25 113211 1661 1951 291 0.250 0.169 1.709 7.069 0.375 0.642 26 113212 1655 1958 304 0.164 0.085 1.572 7.714 0.311 0.724 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1570 TO 1995 426 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 252 0.187 0.153 2.491 13.758 0.399 0.659 STANDARD DEVIATION 85 0.075 0.070 1.554 20.418 0.047 0.103 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 0.169 0.147 2.103 7.860 0.395 0.688 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 100 0.119 0.070 0.922 5.838 0.056 0.083 MINIMUM VALUE 96 0.083 0.081 1.255 3.843 0.311 0.312 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 201 0.126 0.099 1.709 6.522 0.371 0.627 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 301 0.245 0.169 2.632 12.361 0.426 0.710 MAXIMUM VALUE 393 0.405 0.395 9.111109.832 0.495 0.817 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.484 0.225 0.012 -0.733 2.860 -0.180 0.893 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.180 SERIES 113071 AND 113211 96 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.893 SERIES 113051 AND 113052 209 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.97 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1595. 1630. 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. CORR 1. 6. 15. 21. 28. 28. 36. 153. 276. 300. RBAR 0.773 0.826 0.675 0.538 0.574 0.640 0.508 0.442 0.541 0.435 SDEV 0.000 0.064 0.191 0.200 0.213 0.155 0.224 0.174 0.292 0.218 SERR 0.000 0.026 0.049 0.044 0.040 0.029 0.037 0.014 0.018 0.013 EPS 0.912 0.964 0.934 0.902 0.915 0.943 0.944 0.950 0.968 0.952 NSS 3.1 5.7 6.9 7.9 8.0 9.3 16.4 23.8 25.7 25.9 YEAR 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 300. 300. 276. 210. 45. RBAR 0.347 0.400 0.663 0.605 0.398 SDEV 0.186 0.199 0.099 0.114 0.181 SERR 0.011 0.012 0.006 0.008 0.027 EPS 0.931 0.943 0.980 0.973 0.922 NSS 25.4 25.0 24.9 23.8 17.8 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1570 1995 426 0.157 0.099 1.498 5.574 0.345 0.658 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.718 0.425 0.016 219 207 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.00 2.70 1.01 1.30 4.00 559.63 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.13 0.33 0.85 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 223. 103. 96. 201. 304. 395. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.656 0.575 0.532 0.481 0.502 0.406 0.431 0.399 0.365 0.311 PACF 0.656 0.254 0.157 0.071 0.164 -0.073 0.121 0.010 0.006 -0.082 95% C.L. 0.097 0.132 0.154 0.170 0.183 0.195 0.203 0.211 0.218 0.224 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.486 0.447 0.186 0.153 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 113011 1 0.83091462 0.06412718 0.00000000 0.16569877 2 113012 1 0.25819883 0.01837936 0.00000000 0.06023805 3 113021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047637 0.15392369 4 113022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011364 0.17750828 5 113051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00107838 0.30734152 6 113052 1 0.49552432 0.02647044 0.00000000 0.12684785 7 113061 1 0.41168419 0.02592184 0.00000000 0.11012716 8 113062 1 0.53807592 0.04301470 0.00000000 0.10832082 9 113071 1 1.05214608 0.02654640 0.00000000 0.02957410 10 113072 1 0.38628051 0.01597720 0.00000000 0.14059027 11 113091 1 0.28850433 0.04362590 0.00000000 0.09900163 12 113092 1 0.19041373 0.01807748 0.00000000 0.11123073 13 113101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00051001 0.23392299 14 113102 1 0.34794453 0.00789993 0.00000000 0.02855998 15 113111 1 0.34842238 0.03081663 0.00000000 0.08650010 16 113112 1 0.42314467 0.04352262 0.00000000 0.05908080 17 113121 1 0.20509647 0.01206209 0.00000000 0.03484544 18 113122 1 0.27030867 0.01634603 0.00000000 0.02739170 19 113181 1 0.64814436 0.02103346 0.00000000 0.10068852 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 113182 1 0.68162024 0.02260318 0.00000000 0.17503282 21 113191 1 0.24913852 0.01068376 0.00000000 0.06042312 22 113192 1 0.19954181 0.00753249 0.00000000 0.05572454 23 113201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00205955 0.41265228 24 113202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00081327 0.33779323 25 113211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013390 0.23476797 26 113212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016008 0.13892131 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 113011 1751 1956 206 1.000 0.626 1.248 4.233 0.410 0.552 2 113012 1736 1936 201 1.007 0.570 2.135 9.985 0.339 0.490 3 113021 1784 1982 199 1.007 0.733 1.962 7.127 0.419 0.658 4 113022 1766 1981 216 1.000 0.594 1.202 4.558 0.373 0.674 5 113051 1730 1959 230 1.019 0.715 2.174 11.694 0.338 0.676 6 113052 1751 1959 209 1.002 0.560 1.776 7.594 0.372 0.496 7 113061 1751 1995 245 1.002 0.739 2.022 7.387 0.426 0.673 8 113062 1751 1995 245 1.000 0.603 2.178 11.006 0.399 0.418 9 113071 1755 1850 96 0.988 0.679 1.693 6.875 0.489 0.586 10 113072 1758 1973 216 1.001 0.705 1.852 8.259 0.462 0.616 11 113091 1755 1994 240 0.999 0.457 0.762 4.026 0.419 0.384 12 113092 1754 1994 241 1.000 0.514 0.949 3.671 0.458 0.382 13 113101 1613 1994 382 0.998 0.637 1.543 6.327 0.430 0.533 14 113102 1612 1994 383 1.003 0.633 2.065 10.701 0.387 0.610 15 113111 1601 1995 395 1.002 0.790 2.229 9.151 0.446 0.612 16 113112 1601 1994 394 1.004 0.517 0.833 3.460 0.406 0.436 17 113121 1760 1924 165 1.001 0.471 0.868 3.639 0.368 0.459 18 113122 1761 1958 198 1.018 0.466 1.203 5.878 0.388 0.356 19 113181 1752 1959 208 1.020 0.628 1.061 4.012 0.418 0.597 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 113182 1757 1963 207 1.001 0.689 1.861 7.565 0.475 0.518 21 113191 1570 1963 394 1.004 0.538 0.920 3.682 0.371 0.576 22 113192 1570 1964 395 1.001 0.566 1.151 4.799 0.386 0.575 23 113201 1792 1944 153 1.017 0.489 0.905 3.301 0.316 0.582 24 113202 1772 1954 183 0.999 0.538 1.641 8.430 0.357 0.578 25 113211 1661 1951 291 1.000 0.684 1.794 7.419 0.376 0.643 26 113212 1655 1958 304 0.999 0.507 1.472 6.987 0.309 0.710 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 254 1.004 0.602 1.519 6.606 0.398 0.553 STANDARD DEVIATION 86 0.007 0.095 0.492 2.557 0.047 0.100 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 1.001 0.599 1.592 6.931 0.394 0.577 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 103 0.004 0.168 0.901 4.233 0.055 0.126 MINIMUM VALUE 96 0.988 0.457 0.762 3.301 0.309 0.356 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 201 1.000 0.517 1.061 4.026 0.371 0.490 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 304 1.004 0.684 1.962 8.259 0.426 0.616 MAXIMUM VALUE 395 1.020 0.790 2.229 11.694 0.489 0.710 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 113011 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 113012 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 113021 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 113022 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 113051 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 113052 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 113061 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 113062 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 113071 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 113072 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 113091 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 113092 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 113101 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 113102 -67 256 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 113111 -67 264 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 113112 -67 263 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 113121 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 113122 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 113181 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 113182 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 113191 -67 263 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 113192 -67 264 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 113201 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 113202 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 113211 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 113212 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 113011 1751 1956 206 0.996 0.610 1.253 4.214 0.410 0.546 2 113012 1736 1936 201 0.995 0.509 1.902 9.391 0.339 0.427 3 113021 1784 1982 199 0.996 0.517 0.845 3.509 0.419 0.497 4 113022 1766 1981 216 0.990 0.509 0.579 2.545 0.372 0.613 5 113051 1730 1959 230 0.969 0.582 1.966 10.515 0.338 0.625 6 113052 1751 1959 209 0.988 0.482 1.219 5.130 0.372 0.434 7 113061 1751 1995 245 0.994 0.678 1.939 7.357 0.426 0.630 8 113062 1751 1995 245 0.994 0.560 2.201 11.679 0.399 0.357 9 113071 1755 1850 96 0.978 0.616 1.506 6.156 0.489 0.543 10 113072 1758 1973 216 0.994 0.705 2.088 9.720 0.462 0.613 11 113091 1755 1994 240 0.998 0.447 0.728 4.020 0.419 0.351 12 113092 1754 1994 241 0.995 0.488 0.802 3.339 0.458 0.341 13 113101 1613 1994 382 0.983 0.579 1.466 5.719 0.430 0.498 14 113102 1612 1994 383 0.993 0.612 2.161 11.339 0.387 0.588 15 113111 1601 1995 395 0.992 0.716 1.774 6.801 0.446 0.569 16 113112 1601 1994 394 0.997 0.501 0.766 3.225 0.406 0.421 17 113121 1760 1924 165 0.996 0.456 0.864 3.683 0.368 0.427 18 113122 1761 1958 198 0.995 0.406 1.183 7.296 0.388 0.232 19 113181 1752 1959 208 0.984 0.521 0.839 3.429 0.419 0.513 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 113182 1757 1963 207 0.995 0.669 1.832 7.814 0.475 0.497 21 113191 1570 1963 394 0.988 0.501 0.907 3.790 0.371 0.536 22 113192 1570 1964 395 0.993 0.544 1.093 4.609 0.386 0.552 23 113201 1792 1944 153 0.990 0.427 0.972 3.875 0.316 0.499 24 113202 1772 1954 183 0.990 0.507 1.600 8.258 0.358 0.535 25 113211 1661 1951 291 0.985 0.593 1.716 7.787 0.377 0.542 26 113212 1655 1958 304 0.995 0.449 1.026 4.937 0.310 0.617 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 254 0.991 0.546 1.355 6.159 0.398 0.500 STANDARD DEVIATION 86 0.007 0.086 0.512 2.734 0.047 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 0.993 0.519 1.236 5.424 0.394 0.524 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 103 0.007 0.122 0.968 4.024 0.055 0.142 MINIMUM VALUE 96 0.969 0.406 0.579 2.545 0.310 0.232 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 201 0.988 0.488 0.864 3.790 0.371 0.427 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 304 0.995 0.610 1.832 7.814 0.426 0.569 MAXIMUM VALUE 395 0.998 0.716 2.201 11.679 0.489 0.630 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.448 0.134 0.007 -0.215 2.767 0.082 0.775 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.082 SERIES 113102 AND 113211 291 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.775 SERIES 113191 AND 113192 394 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.97 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1595. 1630. 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. CORR 1. 6. 15. 21. 28. 28. 36. 153. 276. 300. RBAR 0.819 0.857 0.643 0.550 0.599 0.653 0.492 0.441 0.504 0.446 SDEV 0.000 0.039 0.175 0.213 0.182 0.147 0.242 0.185 0.220 0.168 SERR 0.000 0.016 0.045 0.046 0.034 0.028 0.040 0.015 0.013 0.010 EPS 0.933 0.971 0.925 0.906 0.923 0.946 0.941 0.949 0.963 0.954 NSS 3.1 5.7 6.9 7.9 8.0 9.3 16.4 23.8 25.7 25.9 YEAR 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 300. 300. 276. 210. 45. RBAR 0.355 0.404 0.647 0.601 0.428 SDEV 0.198 0.200 0.099 0.129 0.155 SERR 0.011 0.012 0.006 0.009 0.023 EPS 0.933 0.944 0.979 0.973 0.930 NSS 25.4 25.0 24.9 23.8 17.8 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1570 1995 426 0.947 0.413 0.654 3.172 0.325 0.542 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.664 0.294 0.055 149 277 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.44 1.35 1.00 1.11 2.46 87.60 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.51 0.85 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.541 0.384 0.301 0.237 0.193 0.100 0.131 0.082 0.025 -0.045 PACF 0.541 0.129 0.072 0.032 0.024 -0.068 0.087 -0.034 -0.052 -0.088 95% C.L. 0.097 0.122 0.133 0.139 0.143 0.145 0.146 0.147 0.147 0.148 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.309 0.463 0.094 0.072 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.565 0.348 0.302 0.281 0.219 0.158 0.189 0.133 0.015 -0.111 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.565 2 0.542 0.042 3 0.536 -0.030 0.132 4 0.526 -0.027 0.088 0.082 5 0.525 -0.028 0.088 0.080 0.005 6 0.525 -0.027 0.089 0.080 0.010 -0.010 7 0.526 -0.028 0.081 0.071 0.012 -0.061 0.098 8 0.532 -0.032 0.082 0.075 0.017 -0.063 0.128 -0.057 9 0.525 -0.016 0.074 0.077 0.026 -0.053 0.124 0.006 -0.118 10 0.506 -0.015 0.095 0.068 0.030 -0.041 0.137 0.003 -0.032 -0.164 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 4208.89 4046.83 4048.10 4042.62 4041.73 4043.72 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 4045.68 4043.56 4044.16 4040.16 4030.59 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.565 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 31.96 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 146.98 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.565 0.320 0.181 0.102 0.058 0.033 0.018 0.010 0.006 0.0033 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 113011 1 0.300 0.547 2 113012 1 0.186 0.429 3 113021 1 0.257 0.499 4 113022 1 0.395 0.613 5 113051 1 0.453 0.626 6 113052 1 0.198 0.434 7 113061 1 0.407 0.632 8 113062 1 0.132 0.359 9 113071 1 0.310 0.544 10 113072 1 0.377 0.614 11 113091 1 0.128 0.353 12 113092 1 0.119 0.342 13 113101 1 0.255 0.500 14 113102 1 0.348 0.589 15 113111 1 0.336 0.571 16 113112 1 0.225 0.426 17 113121 1 0.189 0.434 18 113122 1 0.068 0.233 19 113181 1 0.278 0.516 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 113182 1 0.260 0.501 21 113191 1 0.320 0.536 22 113192 1 0.334 0.552 23 113201 1 0.258 0.502 24 113202 1 0.295 0.539 25 113211 1 0.298 0.544 26 113212 1 0.397 0.618 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.274 0.502 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.098 0.101 MEDIAN 1 0.286 0.526 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.138 0.136 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.068 0.233 LOWER HINGE 1 0.198 0.434 UPPER HINGE 1 0.336 0.571 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.453 0.632 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 113011 1751 1956 206 1.002 0.505 1.172 5.057 0.522 0.011 2 113012 1736 1936 201 1.000 0.460 2.072 11.407 0.431 -0.024 3 113021 1784 1982 199 1.000 0.447 0.682 3.847 0.526 -0.050 4 113022 1766 1981 216 1.000 0.401 0.344 3.158 0.487 -0.106 5 113051 1730 1959 230 1.004 0.443 1.957 13.136 0.443 -0.134 6 113052 1751 1959 209 1.000 0.434 1.235 5.808 0.443 -0.046 7 113061 1751 1995 245 1.006 0.512 1.137 6.013 0.566 -0.044 8 113062 1751 1995 245 1.003 0.513 2.464 16.887 0.477 0.027 9 113071 1755 1850 96 1.000 0.517 1.578 7.663 0.514 0.077 10 113072 1758 1973 216 1.006 0.542 1.661 9.054 0.540 0.047 11 113091 1755 1994 240 1.000 0.418 0.472 3.892 0.496 0.022 12 113092 1754 1994 241 1.000 0.458 0.762 3.694 0.532 0.017 13 113101 1613 1994 382 1.001 0.500 1.199 6.145 0.518 -0.032 14 113102 1612 1994 383 1.004 0.485 1.498 8.249 0.495 0.008 15 113111 1601 1995 395 1.006 0.576 1.646 8.097 0.568 -0.045 16 113112 1601 1994 394 1.000 0.454 0.783 3.380 0.489 -0.093 17 113121 1760 1924 165 1.000 0.410 0.750 3.985 0.433 -0.019 18 113122 1761 1958 198 1.000 0.395 1.246 7.605 0.422 -0.028 19 113181 1752 1959 208 1.000 0.445 0.598 3.207 0.506 -0.064 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 113182 1757 1963 207 1.006 0.563 1.540 7.192 0.574 -0.005 21 113191 1570 1963 394 1.000 0.423 0.915 5.230 0.466 -0.114 22 113192 1570 1964 395 1.001 0.451 0.958 5.128 0.491 -0.110 23 113201 1792 1944 153 1.000 0.368 0.438 4.156 0.414 -0.042 24 113202 1772 1954 183 1.000 0.426 1.342 7.428 0.443 -0.043 25 113211 1661 1951 291 1.003 0.487 1.803 9.545 0.467 0.006 26 113212 1655 1958 304 1.000 0.353 0.536 3.870 0.412 -0.094 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 254 1.002 0.461 1.184 6.647 0.487 -0.034 STANDARD DEVIATION 86 0.002 0.057 0.555 3.343 0.048 0.053 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 1.000 0.452 1.185 5.911 0.490 -0.037 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 103 0.003 0.083 0.828 4.206 0.080 0.072 MINIMUM VALUE 96 1.000 0.353 0.344 3.158 0.412 -0.134 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 201 1.000 0.423 0.750 3.892 0.443 -0.064 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 304 1.003 0.505 1.578 8.097 0.522 0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 395 1.006 0.576 2.464 16.887 0.574 0.077 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.418 0.104 0.006 0.195 3.050 0.178 0.745 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.178 SERIES 113102 AND 113202 183 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.745 SERIES 113111 AND 113112 394 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.97 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1595. 1630. 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. CORR 1. 6. 15. 21. 28. 28. 36. 153. 276. 300. RBAR 0.817 0.785 0.652 0.572 0.570 0.547 0.421 0.485 0.519 0.405 SDEV 0.000 0.060 0.140 0.184 0.142 0.143 0.164 0.135 0.149 0.134 SERR 0.000 0.025 0.036 0.040 0.027 0.027 0.027 0.011 0.009 0.008 EPS 0.932 0.954 0.928 0.913 0.914 0.918 0.923 0.957 0.965 0.946 NSS 3.1 5.7 6.9 7.9 8.0 9.3 16.4 23.8 25.7 25.9 YEAR 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 300. 300. 276. 210. 45. RBAR 0.346 0.356 0.482 0.488 0.434 SDEV 0.149 0.173 0.126 0.136 0.134 SERR 0.009 0.010 0.008 0.009 0.020 EPS 0.931 0.932 0.959 0.958 0.932 NSS 25.4 25.0 24.9 23.8 17.8 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1570 1995 426 0.973 0.342 0.535 3.739 0.389 -0.034 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.513 0.232 0.070 155 271 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.82 1.00 1.09 1.91 285.63 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.50 0.85 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.034 0.070 0.091 0.061 0.100 -0.053 0.089 0.069 0.007 -0.119 PACF -0.034 0.069 0.096 0.063 0.094 -0.063 0.061 0.063 0.002 -0.148 95% C.L. 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.099 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.101 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.019 -0.039 0.073 0.097 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.073 0.096 0.067 0.101 -0.047 0.090 0.072 0.006 -0.118 PACF 0.002 0.073 0.096 0.063 0.089 -0.064 0.065 0.061 -0.005 -0.147 95% C.L. 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.099 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.101 0.101 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.005 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1570 1995 426 0.974 0.436 0.682 3.221 0.306 0.626 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.625 0.457 0.363 0.285 0.231 0.143 0.155 0.121 0.047 -0.020 PACF 0.625 0.110 0.066 0.019 0.019 -0.065 0.091 -0.020 -0.080 -0.075 95% C.L. 0.097 0.129 0.144 0.152 0.157 0.160 0.161 0.163 0.164 0.164 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.400 0.557 0.109 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.46 MINUTES