RUN: 4DIG001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: MONG007X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: MONG007X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 113 1 Turgen-charchira mountai DENSITY_MAXIMUM LADA - 113 2 Mongolia Larch 2000 4942-9133 1570 1995 - 113 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 113011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 24 IN 1 GAPS / 1931 1954 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 113021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1824 1830 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 113022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1816 1816 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 113051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1776 1777 / 1858 1858 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 113101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1620 1622 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 113102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 3 GAPS / 1652 1654 / 1671 1671 / 1830 1830 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 113112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1677 1677 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 113191 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 2 GAPS / 1735 1736 / 1786 1788 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 113192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1882 1888 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 113201 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1822 1824 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 113202 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1822 1824 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 113211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 2 GAPS / 1802 1807 / 1850 1851 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 113212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 2 GAPS / 1682 1684 / 1793 1797 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 113011 1751 1956 206 0.827 0.076 -1.407 5.588 0.068 0.530 2 113012 1736 1936 201 0.822 0.093 -0.867 4.161 0.087 0.528 3 113021 1784 1982 199 0.895 0.076 -1.608 7.939 0.076 0.253 4 113022 1766 1981 216 0.912 0.078 -1.312 4.925 0.068 0.452 5 113051 1730 1959 230 0.873 0.105 -0.827 3.667 0.085 0.591 6 113052 1751 1959 209 0.826 0.105 -0.620 4.023 0.077 0.694 7 113061 1751 1995 245 0.889 0.084 -1.625 7.592 0.089 0.198 8 113062 1751 1995 245 0.888 0.083 -1.569 7.514 0.086 0.222 9 113071 1755 1850 96 0.882 0.082 -1.341 5.138 0.070 0.480 10 113072 1758 1973 216 0.892 0.088 -1.557 5.566 0.069 0.575 11 113091 1755 1994 240 0.901 0.100 -1.710 6.911 0.107 0.125 12 113092 1754 1994 241 0.917 0.090 -1.825 8.152 0.092 0.132 13 113101 1613 1994 382 0.866 0.118 -1.020 3.538 0.104 0.540 14 113102 1612 1994 383 0.826 0.149 -0.584 2.655 0.122 0.669 15 113111 1601 1995 395 0.853 0.115 -1.075 3.774 0.111 0.454 16 113112 1601 1994 394 0.844 0.120 -0.779 3.155 0.121 0.441 17 113121 1760 1924 165 0.864 0.091 -0.954 4.294 0.081 0.474 18 113122 1761 1958 198 0.824 0.113 -0.886 3.658 0.108 0.503 19 113181 1752 1959 208 0.831 0.066 -0.495 3.747 0.066 0.403 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 113182 1757 1963 207 0.870 0.067 -1.385 7.106 0.070 0.316 21 113191 1570 1963 394 0.837 0.106 -0.884 3.442 0.099 0.492 22 113192 1570 1964 395 0.877 0.115 -1.151 4.359 0.093 0.563 23 113201 1792 1944 153 0.871 0.053 -0.754 3.695 0.047 0.500 24 113202 1772 1954 183 0.866 0.072 -1.115 4.344 0.050 0.726 25 113211 1661 1951 291 0.852 0.075 -0.705 4.132 0.071 0.461 26 113212 1655 1958 304 0.844 0.079 -0.775 4.424 0.080 0.424 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1570 TO 1995 426 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 251 0.863 0.092 -1.109 4.904 0.085 0.452 STANDARD DEVIATION 85 0.029 0.021 0.387 1.625 0.020 0.160 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 221 0.866 0.089 -1.047 4.319 0.083 0.477 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 98 0.051 0.030 0.629 1.893 0.029 0.137 MINIMUM VALUE 96 0.822 0.053 -1.825 2.655 0.047 0.125 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 198 0.837 0.076 -1.407 3.695 0.070 0.403 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 296 0.888 0.106 -0.779 5.588 0.099 0.540 MAXIMUM VALUE 395 0.917 0.149 -0.495 8.152 0.122 0.726 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.305 0.199 0.011 -0.226 3.244 -0.294 0.815 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.294 SERIES 113102 AND 113202 183 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.815 SERIES 113091 AND 113092 240 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.97 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1595. 1630. 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. CORR 1. 6. 15. 21. 28. 28. 36. 153. 276. 300. RBAR 0.789 0.498 0.608 0.538 0.444 0.557 0.484 0.301 0.335 0.354 SDEV 0.000 0.226 0.168 0.189 0.285 0.186 0.232 0.241 0.273 0.214 SERR 0.000 0.092 0.043 0.041 0.054 0.035 0.039 0.019 0.016 0.012 EPS 0.920 0.850 0.914 0.902 0.865 0.921 0.939 0.911 0.928 0.934 NSS 3.1 5.7 6.9 7.9 8.0 9.3 16.4 23.8 25.7 25.9 YEAR 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 300. 300. 276. 210. 45. RBAR 0.350 0.376 0.407 0.440 0.475 SDEV 0.237 0.179 0.185 0.207 0.202 SERR 0.014 0.010 0.011 0.014 0.030 EPS 0.932 0.938 0.945 0.949 0.942 NSS 25.4 25.0 24.9 23.8 17.8 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1570 1995 426 0.869 0.071 -1.320 6.047 0.064 0.455 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.251 -0.140 0.199 129 297 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.52 1.67 1.00 1.14 2.82 97.57 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.09 0.31 0.85 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 223. 103. 96. 201. 304. 395. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.454 0.268 0.283 0.283 0.171 0.157 0.129 0.102 0.078 0.069 PACF 0.454 0.077 0.171 0.116 -0.034 0.045 -0.013 0.001 0.000 0.000 95% C.L. 0.097 0.115 0.121 0.127 0.133 0.135 0.136 0.138 0.138 0.139 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.253 0.381 0.006 0.122 0.136 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 113011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00062522 0.87874079 2 113012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030511 0.85260749 3 113021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000939 0.89147127 4 113022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022947 0.88676924 5 113051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003810 0.87842900 6 113052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00114405 0.94658494 7 113061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007382 0.88006258 8 113062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016745 0.86728102 9 113071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00070842 0.84741229 10 113072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042411 0.93842292 11 113091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000588 0.90079182 12 113092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006390 0.90932155 13 113101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00031743 0.92758209 14 113102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00072441 0.96595323 15 113111 1 0.14178512 0.00450196 0.00000000 0.78690809 16 113112 1 0.11837909 0.01065040 0.00000000 0.81710064 17 113121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006946 0.85823506 18 113122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00078914 0.90261036 19 113181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000221 0.83049053 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 113182 1 0.09104191 0.00185939 0.00000000 0.79489547 21 113191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006990 0.84957814 22 113192 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00034640 0.94380122 23 113201 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010654 0.86165029 24 113202 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00076065 0.79585665 25 113211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030844 0.80772114 26 113212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007579 0.85545588 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 113011 1751 1956 206 1.000 0.093 -0.841 3.708 0.068 0.543 2 113012 1736 1936 201 1.000 0.111 -0.899 3.936 0.087 0.504 3 113021 1784 1982 199 1.000 0.086 -1.605 7.672 0.076 0.270 4 113022 1766 1981 216 1.000 0.085 -1.097 4.338 0.068 0.427 5 113051 1730 1959 230 1.000 0.120 -0.806 3.667 0.086 0.604 6 113052 1751 1959 209 1.000 0.097 -0.891 3.770 0.076 0.463 7 113061 1751 1995 245 1.000 0.094 -1.637 7.670 0.089 0.194 8 113062 1751 1995 245 1.000 0.093 -1.541 7.596 0.086 0.206 9 113071 1755 1850 96 1.000 0.092 -1.150 5.389 0.069 0.464 10 113072 1758 1973 216 1.000 0.096 -1.431 5.216 0.069 0.538 11 113091 1755 1994 240 1.000 0.111 -1.710 6.911 0.107 0.125 12 113092 1754 1994 241 1.000 0.098 -1.828 8.199 0.092 0.130 13 113101 1613 1994 382 1.000 0.130 -0.957 3.645 0.104 0.493 14 113102 1612 1994 383 1.000 0.153 -0.606 2.705 0.120 0.501 15 113111 1601 1995 395 1.000 0.129 -1.174 3.869 0.110 0.401 16 113112 1601 1994 394 1.000 0.139 -0.748 3.224 0.120 0.407 17 113121 1760 1924 165 1.000 0.106 -0.972 4.336 0.081 0.471 18 113122 1761 1958 198 1.000 0.127 -0.797 3.611 0.108 0.414 19 113181 1752 1959 208 1.000 0.080 -0.494 3.748 0.066 0.401 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 113182 1757 1963 207 1.000 0.076 -1.396 6.839 0.070 0.300 21 113191 1570 1963 394 1.000 0.128 -0.928 3.477 0.099 0.503 22 113192 1570 1964 395 1.000 0.124 -1.387 4.707 0.093 0.489 23 113201 1792 1944 153 1.000 0.062 -0.793 3.796 0.049 0.470 24 113202 1772 1954 183 1.000 0.071 -0.371 3.758 0.051 0.584 25 113211 1661 1951 291 1.000 0.083 -0.615 4.196 0.071 0.380 26 113212 1655 1958 304 1.000 0.092 -0.837 4.457 0.080 0.408 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 254 1.000 0.103 -1.058 4.786 0.084 0.411 STANDARD DEVIATION 86 0.000 0.023 0.397 1.620 0.019 0.132 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 1.000 0.096 -0.943 4.066 0.083 0.445 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 103 0.000 0.037 0.599 1.681 0.030 0.121 MINIMUM VALUE 96 1.000 0.062 -1.828 2.705 0.049 0.125 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 201 1.000 0.086 -1.396 3.708 0.069 0.380 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 304 1.000 0.124 -0.797 5.389 0.099 0.501 MAXIMUM VALUE 395 1.000 0.153 -0.371 8.199 0.120 0.604 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 113011 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 113012 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 113021 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 113022 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 113051 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 113052 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 113061 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 113062 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 113071 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 113072 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 113091 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 113092 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 113101 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 113102 -67 256 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 113111 -67 264 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 113112 -67 263 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 113121 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 113122 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 113181 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 113182 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 113191 -67 263 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 113192 -67 264 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 113201 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 113202 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 113211 -67 194 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 113212 -67 203 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 113011 1751 1956 206 1.000 0.086 -0.914 4.374 0.068 0.464 2 113012 1736 1936 201 1.000 0.103 -0.964 4.275 0.087 0.431 3 113021 1784 1982 199 1.000 0.084 -1.687 8.114 0.076 0.226 4 113022 1766 1981 216 1.000 0.077 -1.199 4.579 0.068 0.312 5 113051 1730 1959 230 0.999 0.101 -0.630 3.563 0.086 0.444 6 113052 1751 1959 209 1.000 0.091 -0.733 3.437 0.077 0.378 7 113061 1751 1995 245 1.000 0.093 -1.730 8.199 0.089 0.175 8 113062 1751 1995 245 1.000 0.091 -1.652 8.133 0.086 0.174 9 113071 1755 1850 96 0.999 0.077 -1.523 7.058 0.069 0.238 10 113072 1758 1973 216 1.000 0.090 -1.518 5.801 0.069 0.467 11 113091 1755 1994 240 1.000 0.109 -1.782 7.169 0.107 0.109 12 113092 1754 1994 241 1.000 0.097 -2.013 8.967 0.092 0.115 13 113101 1613 1994 382 1.000 0.123 -0.901 3.901 0.104 0.427 14 113102 1612 1994 383 0.999 0.138 -0.514 3.273 0.120 0.369 15 113111 1601 1995 395 1.000 0.127 -1.224 4.015 0.110 0.381 16 113112 1601 1994 394 1.000 0.136 -0.809 3.290 0.120 0.385 17 113121 1760 1924 165 1.000 0.102 -1.043 4.479 0.081 0.436 18 113122 1761 1958 198 1.000 0.121 -0.910 4.042 0.108 0.360 19 113181 1752 1959 208 1.000 0.077 -0.446 3.738 0.066 0.356 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 113182 1757 1963 207 1.000 0.076 -1.396 6.847 0.070 0.294 21 113191 1570 1963 394 0.999 0.122 -1.042 3.614 0.099 0.456 22 113192 1570 1964 395 0.999 0.117 -1.368 4.748 0.093 0.425 23 113201 1792 1944 153 1.000 0.053 -0.862 4.369 0.049 0.275 24 113202 1772 1954 183 1.000 0.057 -0.076 3.485 0.051 0.331 25 113211 1661 1951 291 1.000 0.078 -0.689 4.499 0.071 0.311 26 113212 1655 1958 304 1.000 0.087 -0.975 5.044 0.080 0.344 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 254 1.000 0.097 -1.100 5.116 0.084 0.334 STANDARD DEVIATION 86 0.000 0.023 0.470 1.783 0.019 0.107 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 1.000 0.092 -1.008 4.426 0.083 0.358 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 103 0.000 0.039 0.708 3.109 0.030 0.152 MINIMUM VALUE 96 0.999 0.053 -2.013 3.273 0.049 0.109 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 201 1.000 0.078 -1.518 3.738 0.069 0.275 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 304 1.000 0.117 -0.809 6.847 0.099 0.427 MAXIMUM VALUE 395 1.000 0.138 -0.076 8.967 0.120 0.467 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.357 0.156 0.009 -0.016 3.303 -0.071 0.817 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.071 SERIES 113112 AND 113211 291 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.817 SERIES 113091 AND 113092 240 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.97 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1595. 1630. 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. CORR 1. 6. 15. 21. 28. 28. 36. 153. 276. 300. RBAR 0.747 0.484 0.623 0.544 0.454 0.552 0.510 0.306 0.349 0.355 SDEV 0.000 0.219 0.163 0.181 0.266 0.188 0.220 0.217 0.248 0.224 SERR 0.000 0.090 0.042 0.039 0.050 0.036 0.037 0.018 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.900 0.843 0.919 0.904 0.869 0.920 0.945 0.913 0.932 0.935 NSS 3.1 5.7 6.9 7.9 8.0 9.3 16.4 23.8 25.7 25.9 YEAR 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 300. 300. 276. 210. 45. RBAR 0.360 0.370 0.431 0.454 0.484 SDEV 0.230 0.180 0.169 0.199 0.198 SERR 0.013 0.010 0.010 0.014 0.030 EPS 0.935 0.936 0.950 0.952 0.943 NSS 25.4 25.0 24.9 23.8 17.8 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1570 1995 426 0.999 0.076 -1.388 5.473 0.064 0.384 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.352 -0.169 0.242 134 292 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.51 1.09 1.00 1.10 2.19 190.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.48 0.85 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.383 0.139 0.167 0.172 0.059 0.050 0.043 0.033 -0.020 -0.015 PACF 0.383 -0.010 0.137 0.075 -0.048 0.030 -0.011 0.007 -0.045 -0.002 95% C.L. 0.097 0.110 0.112 0.114 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.148 0.385 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.310 0.023 0.062 0.027 -0.020 -0.014 0.016 0.011 0.047 -0.016 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.310 2 0.334 -0.080 3 0.341 -0.109 0.088 4 0.343 -0.112 0.095 -0.021 5 0.343 -0.110 0.093 -0.014 -0.021 6 0.343 -0.110 0.093 -0.014 -0.019 -0.004 7 0.343 -0.109 0.093 -0.016 -0.017 -0.011 0.021 8 0.343 -0.109 0.093 -0.016 -0.017 -0.011 0.020 0.002 9 0.343 -0.110 0.094 -0.015 -0.016 -0.016 0.026 -0.016 0.052 10 0.346 -0.111 0.095 -0.016 -0.017 -0.016 0.031 -0.022 0.071 -0.056 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2703.52 2662.59 2661.85 2660.56 2662.37 2664.19 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2666.19 2668.00 2670.00 2670.85 2671.51 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.341 -0.109 0.088 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 10.86 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 112.18 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.341 0.007 0.053 0.047 0.011 0.003 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 113011 3 0.224 0.452 0.011 0.046 2 113012 3 0.219 0.515 -0.191 0.045 3 113021 3 0.054 0.238 -0.037 0.002 4 113022 3 0.107 0.317 -0.029 0.064 5 113051 3 0.224 0.414 0.013 0.100 6 113052 3 0.166 0.442 -0.158 0.019 7 113061 3 0.036 0.179 -0.007 0.041 8 113062 3 0.068 0.171 -0.018 0.195 9 113071 3 0.097 0.237 -0.026 0.126 10 113072 3 0.226 0.474 0.023 -0.062 11 113091 3 0.025 0.124 -0.087 0.085 12 113092 3 0.037 0.128 -0.070 0.111 13 113101 3 0.188 0.444 -0.063 0.071 14 113102 3 0.162 0.342 0.010 0.139 15 113111 3 0.176 0.413 -0.124 0.168 16 113112 3 0.196 0.399 -0.101 0.202 17 113121 3 0.233 0.476 -0.149 0.200 18 113122 3 0.145 0.406 -0.120 0.000 19 113181 3 0.131 0.344 0.024 0.031 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 113182 3 0.095 0.310 -0.046 -0.058 21 113191 3 0.254 0.348 0.141 0.125 22 113192 3 0.212 0.353 0.083 0.128 23 113201 3 0.129 0.269 0.115 -0.173 24 113202 3 0.129 0.293 0.081 0.070 25 113211 3 0.125 0.261 0.087 0.120 26 113212 3 0.124 0.336 0.031 -0.012 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.145 0.334 -0.023 0.069 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.068 0.110 0.087 0.088 MEDIAN 3 0.138 0.343 -0.022 0.070 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.116 0.153 0.111 0.107 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.025 0.124 -0.191 -0.173 LOWER HINGE 3 0.097 0.261 -0.087 0.019 UPPER HINGE 3 0.212 0.414 0.024 0.126 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.254 0.515 0.141 0.202 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 113011 1751 1956 206 1.000 0.076 -0.887 6.062 0.082 0.002 2 113012 1736 1936 201 1.000 0.091 -0.830 4.231 0.101 0.006 3 113021 1784 1982 199 1.000 0.082 -1.712 8.747 0.085 0.003 4 113022 1766 1981 216 1.000 0.073 -1.166 4.552 0.079 0.003 5 113051 1730 1959 230 1.000 0.090 -0.551 3.761 0.103 -0.015 6 113052 1751 1959 209 1.000 0.083 -0.643 3.514 0.090 0.000 7 113061 1751 1995 245 1.000 0.091 -1.735 8.245 0.096 0.004 8 113062 1751 1995 245 1.000 0.088 -1.664 7.975 0.093 -0.002 9 113071 1755 1850 96 1.000 0.074 -1.536 7.258 0.076 0.020 10 113072 1758 1973 216 1.000 0.079 -1.158 5.684 0.083 0.001 11 113091 1755 1994 240 1.000 0.108 -1.855 7.540 0.111 -0.002 12 113092 1754 1994 241 1.000 0.095 -2.000 8.874 0.096 0.010 13 113101 1613 1994 382 1.000 0.111 -0.886 3.732 0.122 0.002 14 113102 1612 1994 383 1.000 0.127 -0.647 3.607 0.139 -0.007 15 113111 1601 1995 395 1.000 0.116 -1.162 4.489 0.126 -0.010 16 113112 1601 1994 394 1.000 0.123 -0.840 3.803 0.140 -0.025 17 113121 1760 1924 165 1.000 0.090 -0.996 4.599 0.096 0.015 18 113122 1761 1958 198 1.000 0.112 -0.795 4.006 0.123 0.003 19 113181 1752 1959 208 1.000 0.071 -0.602 4.094 0.077 -0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 113182 1757 1963 207 1.000 0.072 -1.256 5.824 0.078 0.002 21 113191 1570 1963 394 1.000 0.106 -0.997 4.120 0.116 -0.011 22 113192 1570 1964 395 1.000 0.104 -1.317 5.538 0.109 -0.010 23 113201 1792 1944 153 1.000 0.050 -1.122 5.202 0.056 -0.028 24 113202 1772 1954 183 1.000 0.053 -0.329 4.066 0.059 -0.007 25 113211 1661 1951 291 1.000 0.073 -0.872 5.288 0.080 0.002 26 113212 1655 1958 304 1.000 0.082 -0.945 4.994 0.092 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 254 1.000 0.089 -1.096 5.377 0.096 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 86 0.000 0.020 0.435 1.701 0.022 0.010 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 223 1.000 0.089 -0.996 4.797 0.094 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 103 0.000 0.032 0.486 1.996 0.032 0.010 MINIMUM VALUE 96 1.000 0.050 -2.000 3.514 0.056 -0.028 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 201 1.000 0.074 -1.317 4.066 0.080 -0.007 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 304 1.000 0.106 -0.830 6.062 0.111 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 395 1.000 0.127 -0.329 8.874 0.140 0.020 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.372 0.147 0.008 0.001 3.599 -0.098 0.815 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.098 SERIES 113112 AND 113211 291 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.815 SERIES 113091 AND 113092 240 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 46.97 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1595. 1630. 1655. 1680. 1705. 1730. 1755. 1780. 1805. 1830. CORR 1. 6. 15. 21. 28. 28. 36. 153. 276. 300. RBAR 0.661 0.578 0.658 0.594 0.497 0.540 0.465 0.338 0.397 0.378 SDEV 0.000 0.196 0.132 0.159 0.224 0.189 0.211 0.211 0.214 0.220 SERR 0.000 0.080 0.034 0.035 0.042 0.036 0.035 0.017 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.856 0.886 0.930 0.920 0.888 0.916 0.934 0.924 0.944 0.940 NSS 3.1 5.7 6.9 7.9 8.0 9.3 16.4 23.8 25.7 25.9 YEAR 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 300. 300. 276. 210. 45. RBAR 0.376 0.356 0.393 0.452 0.500 SDEV 0.219 0.186 0.157 0.182 0.177 SERR 0.013 0.011 0.009 0.013 0.026 EPS 0.939 0.933 0.942 0.951 0.947 NSS 25.4 25.0 24.9 23.8 17.8 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1570 1995 426 1.001 0.068 -1.351 5.648 0.072 0.015 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.351 -0.170 0.235 122 304 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.42 1.35 1.00 1.13 2.48 56.82 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.50 0.85 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.015 -0.051 -0.015 0.075 -0.025 0.013 -0.023 0.010 -0.031 -0.025 PACF 0.015 -0.051 -0.014 0.073 -0.029 0.021 -0.025 0.006 -0.030 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.003 -0.002 0.074 -0.029 0.018 -0.026 0.010 -0.032 -0.025 PACF 0.001 0.003 -0.002 0.074 -0.029 0.017 -0.026 0.004 -0.028 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.006 0.001 0.003 -0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1570 1995 426 1.001 0.072 -1.379 5.513 0.064 0.313 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.313 0.027 0.083 0.109 0.010 0.003 -0.010 -0.004 -0.036 -0.036 PACF 0.313 -0.078 0.110 0.056 -0.043 0.017 -0.033 0.005 -0.039 -0.013 95% C.L. 0.097 0.106 0.106 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 0.108 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.118 0.347 -0.116 0.110 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.38 MINUTES