RUN: MT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: MT105I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: MT105I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 720 1 Hododoo Pass, SW-Superio DENSITY_EARLY PCEN - 720 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 1710 4700-11510 1758 1983 720 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 720011 1806 1983 178 3.118 0.160 0.019 3.189 0.043 0.411 2 720012 1806 1983 178 3.221 0.171 -0.212 2.984 0.042 0.510 3 720021 1763 1983 221 3.480 0.201 0.126 2.575 0.047 0.451 4 720022 1758 1983 226 3.392 0.214 0.229 2.548 0.045 0.601 5 720031 1839 1983 145 3.101 0.237 0.361 3.366 0.063 0.478 6 720032 1826 1983 158 3.034 0.259 2.269 13.268 0.057 0.542 7 720041 1774 1983 210 2.745 0.183 0.988 4.781 0.046 0.591 8 720042 1777 1983 207 2.760 0.151 -0.222 2.906 0.043 0.519 9 720051 1840 1983 144 3.441 0.213 0.652 3.175 0.042 0.612 10 720052 1848 1983 136 3.413 0.247 -0.013 3.118 0.053 0.574 11 720061 1851 1983 133 3.318 0.416 2.573 11.443 0.056 0.688 12 720062 1871 1983 113 3.230 0.179 0.265 2.803 0.047 0.402 13 720071 1851 1983 133 3.117 0.202 1.189 7.938 0.049 0.326 14 720072 1839 1983 145 2.996 0.170 1.368 7.273 0.041 0.470 15 720081 1896 1983 88 2.831 0.526 3.206 12.813 0.058 0.804 16 720082 1892 1983 92 2.898 0.467 2.323 7.955 0.072 0.725 17 720101 1904 1983 80 3.166 0.168 0.468 4.095 0.043 0.384 18 720102 1807 1983 177 3.372 0.217 0.708 4.009 0.051 0.478 19 720111 1890 1983 94 3.377 0.212 1.636 7.632 0.042 0.551 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 720112 1890 1983 94 3.285 0.181 0.470 3.465 0.049 0.372 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1758 TO 1983 226 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 148 3.165 0.239 0.920 5.567 0.049 0.525 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.229 0.105 1.005 3.525 0.008 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 144 3.193 0.207 0.561 3.737 0.047 0.514 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.359 0.067 1.325 4.735 0.011 0.165 MINIMUM VALUE 80 2.745 0.151 -0.222 2.548 0.041 0.326 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 3.015 0.175 0.177 3.051 0.043 0.431 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 3.375 0.242 1.502 7.785 0.054 0.596 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 3.480 0.526 3.206 13.268 0.072 0.804 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.144 0.202 0.015 0.012 2.575 -0.342 0.668 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.342 SERIES 720042 AND 720101 80 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.668 SERIES 720011 AND 720012 178 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.38 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 6. 21. 28. 91. 105. 190. RBAR 0.282 0.313 0.080 0.195 0.238 0.220 SDEV 0.192 0.278 0.244 0.225 0.206 0.221 SERR 0.078 0.061 0.046 0.024 0.020 0.016 EPS 0.698 0.813 0.531 0.798 0.856 0.849 NSS 5.9 9.5 13.1 16.3 19.1 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1758 1983 226 3.169 0.117 0.735 4.370 0.033 0.321 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.348 -0.309 1.284 33 193 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.99 1.00 1.04 2.03 4.58 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.13 0.00 0.86 0.98 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 144. 74. 80. 104. 178. 226. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.320 0.262 0.372 0.232 0.286 0.247 0.160 0.137 0.142 0.102 PACF 0.320 0.177 0.284 0.044 0.146 0.039 -0.018 -0.053 0.005 -0.023 95% C.L. 0.133 0.146 0.154 0.169 0.175 0.183 0.189 0.191 0.193 0.195 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.213 0.204 0.111 0.297 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 720011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00102089 3.02694535 2 720012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00189627 3.05129504 3 720021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00103632 3.36546612 4 720022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00055715 3.45540404 5 720031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00175968 2.97243977 6 720032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00288885 3.26377726 7 720041 1 0.50145316 0.03558805 0.00000000 2.67950940 8 720042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00024648 2.78519917 9 720051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00278410 3.23898602 10 720052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00441091 3.11108828 11 720061 1 1.38674486 0.12909411 0.00000000 3.24200320 12 720062 1 0.23981018 0.03189918 0.00000000 3.16613221 13 720071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00253405 2.94713593 14 720072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00085675 2.93387079 15 720081 1 3.26565695 0.18257357 0.00000000 2.64564157 16 720082 1 3.01134253 0.35278317 0.00000000 2.82012391 17 720101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00046144 3.14693666 18 720102 1 0.33622122 0.00630687 0.00000000 3.16994858 19 720111 1 1.18826354 0.22511151 0.00000000 3.32726908 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 720112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00310154 3.13735747 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 720011 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.048 0.001 3.345 0.043 0.347 2 720012 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.044 0.104 2.813 0.041 0.284 3 720021 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.054 -0.159 2.878 0.047 0.390 4 720022 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.062 0.234 2.558 0.044 0.582 5 720031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.072 0.293 3.278 0.062 0.417 6 720032 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.072 2.361 16.344 0.057 0.352 7 720041 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.053 0.328 3.104 0.046 0.387 8 720042 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.055 -0.215 2.844 0.042 0.511 9 720051 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.051 0.620 3.996 0.042 0.439 10 720052 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.052 0.191 3.237 0.053 0.149 11 720061 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.108 3.379 20.272 0.055 0.571 12 720062 1871 1983 113 1.000 0.052 0.461 3.115 0.047 0.324 13 720071 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.057 2.054 12.453 0.048 0.146 14 720072 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.055 1.413 7.868 0.041 0.450 15 720081 1896 1983 88 1.000 0.065 1.445 6.765 0.055 0.331 16 720082 1892 1983 92 1.000 0.124 2.255 9.809 0.072 0.643 17 720101 1904 1983 80 1.000 0.053 0.511 4.099 0.043 0.373 18 720102 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.061 0.762 3.885 0.051 0.419 19 720111 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.043 -0.021 2.633 0.041 0.289 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 720112 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.049 0.505 3.418 0.048 0.198 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 148 1.000 0.062 0.826 5.936 0.049 0.380 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.000 0.020 0.995 5.034 0.008 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.054 0.483 3.381 0.047 0.380 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.012 1.281 4.326 0.011 0.138 MINIMUM VALUE 80 1.000 0.043 -0.215 2.558 0.041 0.146 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.052 0.148 2.991 0.043 0.306 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.064 1.429 7.317 0.054 0.445 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 1.000 0.124 3.379 20.272 0.072 0.643 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 720011 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 720012 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 720021 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 720022 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 720031 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 720032 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 720041 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 720042 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 720051 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 720052 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 720061 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 720062 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 720071 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 720072 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 720081 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 720082 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 720101 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 720102 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 720111 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 720112 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 720011 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.045 0.158 3.185 0.043 0.253 2 720012 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.043 0.140 2.680 0.041 0.250 3 720021 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.048 -0.002 2.903 0.047 0.206 4 720022 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.055 -0.095 3.311 0.044 0.462 5 720031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.058 0.236 3.245 0.062 0.101 6 720032 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.067 2.297 15.392 0.057 0.267 7 720041 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.052 0.327 3.162 0.046 0.364 8 720042 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.052 -0.253 3.099 0.042 0.459 9 720051 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.050 0.526 3.761 0.042 0.403 10 720052 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.051 0.195 3.244 0.053 0.121 11 720061 1851 1983 133 0.999 0.093 3.361 20.420 0.055 0.452 12 720062 1871 1983 113 1.000 0.046 0.434 3.631 0.047 0.137 13 720071 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.054 1.934 11.978 0.048 0.064 14 720072 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.048 1.318 7.792 0.041 0.288 15 720081 1896 1983 88 1.000 0.059 1.271 6.258 0.055 0.200 16 720082 1892 1983 92 0.999 0.099 2.140 9.860 0.071 0.478 17 720101 1904 1983 80 1.000 0.049 0.662 4.163 0.043 0.276 18 720102 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.053 0.665 3.812 0.050 0.245 19 720111 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.038 0.225 3.085 0.041 0.110 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 720112 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.047 0.499 3.653 0.048 0.129 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 148 1.000 0.055 0.802 5.932 0.049 0.263 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.000 0.015 0.956 4.868 0.008 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.051 0.467 3.642 0.047 0.251 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.009 1.118 3.852 0.011 0.250 MINIMUM VALUE 80 0.999 0.038 -0.253 2.680 0.041 0.064 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.047 0.176 3.173 0.043 0.133 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.056 1.294 7.025 0.054 0.383 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 1.000 0.099 3.361 20.420 0.071 0.478 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.221 0.137 0.010 -0.053 3.923 -0.267 0.604 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.267 SERIES 720042 AND 720101 80 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.604 SERIES 720081 AND 720082 88 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.38 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 6. 21. 28. 91. 105. 190. RBAR 0.358 0.308 0.105 0.217 0.264 0.229 SDEV 0.120 0.217 0.203 0.157 0.186 0.198 SERR 0.049 0.047 0.038 0.016 0.018 0.014 EPS 0.767 0.809 0.605 0.819 0.872 0.856 NSS 5.9 9.5 13.1 16.3 19.1 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1758 1983 226 0.999 0.030 0.250 3.289 0.033 -0.009 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.038 0.019 0.021 49 177 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.41 1.23 1.00 1.14 2.37 18.23 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.009 -0.065 0.156 0.005 0.056 0.040 -0.067 -0.086 -0.012 0.019 PACF -0.009 -0.065 0.156 0.002 0.079 0.017 -0.061 -0.107 -0.033 0.021 95% C.L. 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.138 0.139 0.139 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.004 -0.089 0.140 -0.033 0.049 0.063 -0.104 -0.122 0.062 0.009 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.004 2 0.004 -0.090 3 0.017 -0.090 0.142 4 0.023 -0.094 0.143 -0.045 5 0.027 -0.105 0.150 -0.047 0.078 6 0.024 -0.104 0.145 -0.044 0.077 0.034 7 0.027 -0.097 0.141 -0.031 0.068 0.036 -0.086 8 0.016 -0.092 0.150 -0.035 0.087 0.023 -0.083 -0.133 9 0.021 -0.089 0.149 -0.039 0.088 0.017 -0.079 -0.133 0.042 10 0.021 -0.087 0.150 -0.039 0.087 0.017 -0.080 -0.133 0.042 0.010 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 825.98 827.98 828.16 825.56 827.09 827.71 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 829.44 829.76 827.74 829.34 831.32 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.017 -0.090 0.142 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.80 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.89 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.017 -0.090 0.139 0.013 -0.025 0.018 0.004 -0.005 0.002 0.0011 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 720011 3 0.084 0.223 0.053 0.122 2 720012 3 0.080 0.214 0.114 0.047 3 720021 3 0.125 0.152 0.076 0.257 4 720022 3 0.292 0.319 0.157 0.188 5 720031 3 0.079 0.080 0.037 0.254 6 720032 3 0.099 0.270 0.005 0.021 7 720041 3 0.191 0.274 0.108 0.185 8 720042 3 0.305 0.301 0.130 0.261 9 720051 3 0.196 0.342 0.096 0.086 10 720052 3 0.025 0.129 -0.049 0.055 11 720061 3 0.267 0.427 -0.060 0.242 12 720062 3 0.034 0.122 0.087 0.028 13 720071 3 0.041 0.053 0.047 0.142 14 720072 3 0.105 0.273 0.045 0.059 15 720081 3 0.110 0.169 0.199 -0.038 16 720082 3 0.252 0.444 0.042 0.053 17 720101 3 0.125 0.249 0.030 0.193 18 720102 3 0.115 0.196 0.079 0.174 19 720111 3 0.021 0.119 -0.059 0.049 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 720112 3 0.045 0.107 0.068 0.135 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.130 0.223 0.060 0.126 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.090 0.110 0.068 0.091 MEDIAN 3 0.108 0.219 0.061 0.128 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.132 0.162 0.069 0.140 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.021 0.053 -0.060 -0.038 LOWER HINGE 3 0.062 0.126 0.033 0.051 UPPER HINGE 3 0.194 0.288 0.102 0.191 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.305 0.444 0.199 0.261 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 720011 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.043 0.114 3.114 0.048 0.003 2 720012 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.041 0.039 2.580 0.046 -0.002 3 720021 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.045 -0.109 3.004 0.049 -0.011 4 720022 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.046 0.278 3.268 0.052 -0.014 5 720031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.055 0.312 3.284 0.062 0.010 6 720032 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.064 2.081 14.182 0.065 0.000 7 720041 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.047 0.447 3.495 0.052 0.014 8 720042 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.043 -0.028 2.995 0.049 -0.007 9 720051 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.045 0.309 2.987 0.051 0.010 10 720052 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.050 0.222 3.338 0.055 0.004 11 720061 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.080 3.530 21.357 0.066 0.025 12 720062 1871 1983 113 1.000 0.046 0.723 4.066 0.050 -0.003 13 720071 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.053 2.313 14.926 0.047 0.016 14 720072 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.046 1.399 9.093 0.046 0.000 15 720081 1896 1983 88 1.000 0.056 0.938 5.102 0.060 -0.007 16 720082 1892 1983 92 1.000 0.087 1.836 9.913 0.093 0.007 17 720101 1904 1983 80 1.000 0.045 0.760 4.199 0.047 -0.003 18 720102 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.051 0.576 3.515 0.056 -0.022 19 720111 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.038 0.234 3.164 0.043 0.004 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 720112 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.046 0.442 3.450 0.051 0.007 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 148 1.000 0.051 0.821 6.052 0.054 0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.000 0.012 0.949 5.187 0.011 0.011 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.046 0.444 3.472 0.051 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.009 0.940 3.958 0.010 0.014 MINIMUM VALUE 80 1.000 0.038 -0.109 2.580 0.043 -0.022 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.045 0.228 3.139 0.048 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.054 1.169 7.097 0.058 0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 1.000 0.087 3.530 21.357 0.093 0.025 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.267 0.125 0.009 0.023 3.577 -0.108 0.605 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.108 SERIES 720052 AND 720111 94 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.605 SERIES 720071 AND 720072 133 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.38 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 6. 21. 28. 91. 105. 190. RBAR 0.527 0.371 0.177 0.278 0.329 0.277 SDEV 0.036 0.189 0.173 0.148 0.180 0.177 SERR 0.015 0.041 0.033 0.016 0.018 0.013 EPS 0.868 0.849 0.739 0.863 0.903 0.885 NSS 5.9 9.5 13.1 16.3 19.1 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1758 1983 226 0.999 0.030 0.310 3.314 0.037 -0.183 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.074 0.033 0.001 63 163 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 1.63 1.00 1.13 2.76 25.18 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.182 -0.158 0.007 -0.028 0.066 0.038 -0.048 -0.068 -0.027 0.039 PACF -0.182 -0.198 -0.069 -0.078 0.036 0.047 -0.012 -0.069 -0.069 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.133 0.137 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.142 0.142 0.142 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.077 -0.220 -0.201 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.008 -0.013 -0.006 -0.061 0.051 0.022 -0.057 -0.077 -0.036 0.033 PACF -0.008 -0.013 -0.006 -0.061 0.050 0.021 -0.057 -0.081 -0.033 0.031 95% C.L. 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.134 0.134 0.135 0.135 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.004 -0.008 -0.014 -0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1758 1983 226 0.998 0.030 0.220 3.170 0.033 -0.014 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.014 -0.093 0.132 -0.061 0.017 0.046 -0.061 -0.076 -0.021 0.021 PACF -0.014 -0.094 0.130 -0.069 0.042 0.016 -0.039 -0.084 -0.035 0.023 95% C.L. 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.136 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.138 0.139 0.139 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.18 MINUTES