RUN: MT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: MT105N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: MT105N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 720 1 Hododoo Pass, SW-Superio DENSITY_MINIMUM PCEN - 720 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 1710 4700-11510 1758 1983 720 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 7 720041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1951 1955 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 720051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1865 1870 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 720062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1976 1980 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 720111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1978 1982 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 720011 1806 1983 178 0.259 0.016 0.138 3.044 0.053 0.408 2 720012 1806 1983 178 0.268 0.015 -0.348 3.048 0.045 0.447 3 720021 1763 1983 221 0.296 0.023 0.180 2.666 0.050 0.601 4 720022 1758 1983 226 0.287 0.021 0.551 2.731 0.047 0.634 5 720031 1839 1983 145 0.264 0.023 0.061 2.911 0.064 0.548 6 720032 1826 1983 158 0.249 0.021 0.974 5.721 0.061 0.519 7 720041 1774 1983 210 0.226 0.014 0.458 3.440 0.051 0.427 8 720042 1777 1983 207 0.229 0.017 0.208 2.808 0.054 0.544 9 720051 1840 1983 144 0.284 0.024 0.476 3.805 0.056 0.644 10 720052 1848 1983 136 0.277 0.022 0.040 2.749 0.060 0.550 11 720061 1851 1983 133 0.272 0.038 3.327 20.316 0.068 0.534 12 720062 1871 1983 113 0.258 0.020 0.291 3.366 0.059 0.432 13 720071 1851 1983 133 0.272 0.021 0.430 4.004 0.052 0.422 14 720072 1839 1983 145 0.260 0.020 0.934 5.267 0.048 0.593 15 720081 1896 1983 88 0.235 0.045 3.325 14.315 0.068 0.745 16 720082 1892 1983 92 0.235 0.037 2.330 8.538 0.066 0.734 17 720101 1904 1983 80 0.266 0.018 -0.108 3.389 0.047 0.535 18 720102 1807 1983 177 0.290 0.020 0.333 2.991 0.049 0.518 19 720111 1890 1983 94 0.277 0.021 1.980 9.181 0.051 0.428 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 720112 1890 1983 94 0.270 0.025 0.469 2.800 0.053 0.708 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1758 TO 1983 226 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 147 0.264 0.023 0.802 5.354 0.055 0.549 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.020 0.008 1.076 4.594 0.007 0.105 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 0.267 0.021 0.444 3.378 0.053 0.539 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 77 0.024 0.005 0.795 2.635 0.010 0.178 MINIMUM VALUE 80 0.226 0.014 -0.348 2.666 0.045 0.408 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 101 0.253 0.019 0.159 2.859 0.050 0.440 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 0.277 0.023 0.954 5.494 0.060 0.618 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 0.296 0.045 3.327 20.316 0.068 0.745 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.125 0.205 0.015 -0.009 2.633 -0.350 0.688 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.350 SERIES 720081 AND 720112 88 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.688 SERIES 720102 AND 720112 94 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.38 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 6. 21. 28. 91. 105. 190. RBAR 0.317 0.290 0.095 0.224 0.220 0.128 SDEV 0.192 0.299 0.243 0.197 0.187 0.224 SERR 0.078 0.065 0.046 0.021 0.018 0.016 EPS 0.733 0.795 0.579 0.825 0.843 0.746 NSS 5.9 9.5 13.1 16.3 19.1 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1758 1983 226 0.263 0.012 0.472 3.556 0.037 0.412 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.250 -0.229 0.089 44 182 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.55 1.00 1.09 1.64 10.61 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.85 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 144. 74. 80. 104. 178. 226. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.410 0.344 0.390 0.245 0.311 0.239 0.160 0.195 0.181 0.162 PACF 0.410 0.212 0.242 -0.008 0.148 -0.003 -0.031 0.026 0.050 0.023 95% C.L. 0.133 0.154 0.167 0.182 0.188 0.197 0.202 0.204 0.207 0.210 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.271 0.257 0.151 0.262 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 720011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014531 0.24643306 2 720012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010992 0.25791469 3 720021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017571 0.27628753 4 720022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003320 0.29062656 5 720031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021442 0.24814080 6 720032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00021054 0.26572523 7 720041 1 0.04846928 0.00052848 0.00000000 0.18058151 8 720042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005723 0.22255054 9 720051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030834 0.26036099 10 720052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037374 0.25116339 11 720061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005279 0.26834244 12 720062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010073 0.25323623 13 720071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00028453 0.25341764 14 720072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021745 0.24433333 15 720081 1 0.29956633 0.21802685 0.00000000 0.22114049 16 720082 1 0.22057647 0.35176528 0.00000000 0.22953023 17 720101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010970 0.26155695 18 720102 1 0.02938653 0.01282036 0.00000000 0.27863324 19 720111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008367 0.27467942 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 720112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00066120 0.23816746 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 720011 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.055 0.357 3.250 0.053 0.252 2 720012 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.052 -0.039 2.854 0.044 0.365 3 720021 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.066 0.216 2.824 0.050 0.484 4 720022 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.072 0.504 2.751 0.047 0.625 5 720031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.079 0.271 2.933 0.064 0.458 6 720032 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.073 0.625 5.871 0.061 0.362 7 720041 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.062 0.378 3.244 0.051 0.411 8 720042 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.073 0.249 2.886 0.053 0.524 9 720051 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.071 0.460 4.648 0.055 0.508 10 720052 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.060 0.066 2.664 0.059 0.187 11 720061 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.140 3.341 20.051 0.068 0.530 12 720062 1871 1983 113 1.000 0.076 0.103 2.959 0.058 0.495 13 720071 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.064 1.114 5.795 0.052 0.224 14 720072 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.069 1.437 7.010 0.048 0.507 15 720081 1896 1983 88 1.000 0.076 1.182 4.617 0.065 0.363 16 720082 1892 1983 92 1.000 0.125 2.687 13.608 0.066 0.682 17 720101 1904 1983 80 1.000 0.067 -0.033 3.562 0.047 0.515 18 720102 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.064 0.519 3.332 0.049 0.443 19 720111 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.076 1.988 9.250 0.050 0.472 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 720112 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.063 0.427 2.728 0.053 0.377 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 148 1.000 0.074 0.793 5.342 0.055 0.439 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.000 0.021 0.925 4.419 0.007 0.125 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.070 0.444 3.291 0.053 0.465 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.012 0.916 2.962 0.011 0.148 MINIMUM VALUE 80 1.000 0.052 -0.039 2.664 0.044 0.187 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.063 0.233 2.870 0.049 0.364 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.076 1.148 5.833 0.060 0.511 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 1.000 0.140 3.341 20.051 0.068 0.682 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 720011 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 720012 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 720021 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 720022 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 720031 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 720032 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 720041 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 720042 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 720051 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 720052 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 720061 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 720062 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 720071 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 720072 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 720081 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 720082 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 720101 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 720102 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 720111 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 720112 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 720011 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.053 0.461 3.223 0.053 0.199 2 720012 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.049 -0.071 2.832 0.045 0.281 3 720021 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.057 0.270 2.847 0.050 0.302 4 720022 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.059 0.210 3.184 0.047 0.432 5 720031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.065 0.158 2.486 0.064 0.194 6 720032 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.066 0.798 5.427 0.061 0.249 7 720041 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.061 0.397 3.331 0.051 0.385 8 720042 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.068 0.166 2.916 0.053 0.449 9 720051 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.069 0.385 4.459 0.055 0.478 10 720052 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.059 0.084 2.679 0.059 0.174 11 720061 1851 1983 133 0.998 0.117 3.936 25.403 0.068 0.369 12 720062 1871 1983 113 1.000 0.067 0.082 3.292 0.058 0.340 13 720071 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.059 0.923 5.652 0.052 0.112 14 720072 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.059 1.296 6.844 0.048 0.340 15 720081 1896 1983 88 1.000 0.068 1.068 4.694 0.065 0.233 16 720082 1892 1983 92 0.999 0.099 2.548 14.641 0.067 0.536 17 720101 1904 1983 80 1.000 0.058 0.520 3.630 0.047 0.377 18 720102 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.055 0.612 3.763 0.049 0.255 19 720111 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.056 0.861 5.510 0.050 0.230 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 720112 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.055 0.505 3.041 0.053 0.195 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 148 1.000 0.065 0.760 5.493 0.055 0.307 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.000 0.016 0.948 5.399 0.007 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.059 0.483 3.481 0.053 0.292 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.011 0.704 2.490 0.010 0.167 MINIMUM VALUE 80 0.998 0.049 -0.071 2.486 0.045 0.112 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.056 0.188 2.978 0.049 0.214 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.067 0.892 5.469 0.060 0.381 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 1.000 0.117 3.936 25.403 0.068 0.536 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.185 0.134 0.010 -0.099 3.791 -0.295 0.581 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.295 SERIES 720042 AND 720101 80 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.581 SERIES 720081 AND 720082 88 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.38 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 6. 21. 28. 91. 105. 190. RBAR 0.242 0.277 0.116 0.261 0.247 0.152 SDEV 0.122 0.230 0.200 0.150 0.172 0.197 SERR 0.050 0.050 0.038 0.016 0.017 0.014 EPS 0.653 0.785 0.633 0.852 0.862 0.782 NSS 5.9 9.5 13.1 16.3 19.1 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1758 1983 226 0.999 0.035 0.751 3.659 0.035 0.124 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.075 0.039 0.010 56 170 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 0.86 1.00 1.08 1.94 14.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.15 0.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.124 -0.002 0.122 -0.038 0.108 -0.007 -0.120 -0.020 0.015 0.065 PACF 0.124 -0.017 0.127 -0.072 0.131 -0.062 -0.093 -0.027 0.039 0.072 95% C.L. 0.133 0.135 0.135 0.137 0.137 0.139 0.139 0.141 0.141 0.141 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.016 0.124 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.172 -0.041 0.067 0.001 0.110 -0.058 -0.150 -0.083 0.046 0.104 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.172 2 0.184 -0.073 3 0.191 -0.089 0.090 4 0.194 -0.092 0.096 -0.032 5 0.198 -0.105 0.108 -0.058 0.131 6 0.214 -0.112 0.121 -0.070 0.155 -0.119 7 0.202 -0.096 0.114 -0.058 0.143 -0.097 -0.101 8 0.194 -0.103 0.124 -0.062 0.152 -0.104 -0.086 -0.074 9 0.200 -0.096 0.133 -0.075 0.157 -0.115 -0.078 -0.090 0.084 10 0.194 -0.089 0.139 -0.066 0.144 -0.109 -0.088 -0.082 0.068 0.080 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 867.46 862.69 863.49 863.66 865.42 863.51 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 862.30 861.98 862.76 863.17 863.73 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.172 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.95 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.04 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.172 0.030 0.005 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 720011 1 0.041 0.200 2 720012 1 0.089 0.282 3 720021 1 0.133 0.308 4 720022 1 0.224 0.437 5 720031 1 0.039 0.196 6 720032 1 0.069 0.255 7 720041 1 0.160 0.385 8 720042 1 0.256 0.452 9 720051 1 0.248 0.479 10 720052 1 0.035 0.175 11 720061 1 0.141 0.371 12 720062 1 0.117 0.340 13 720071 1 0.027 0.114 14 720072 1 0.127 0.346 15 720081 1 0.102 0.233 16 720082 1 0.287 0.536 17 720101 1 0.195 0.386 18 720102 1 0.066 0.255 19 720111 1 0.084 0.254 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 720112 1 0.044 0.195 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.124 0.310 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.081 0.113 MEDIAN 1 0.110 0.295 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.123 0.170 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.027 0.114 LOWER HINGE 1 0.055 0.216 UPPER HINGE 1 0.177 0.386 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.287 0.536 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 720011 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.052 0.452 3.287 0.059 -0.005 2 720012 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.047 0.018 3.014 0.053 -0.029 3 720021 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.054 0.055 2.860 0.062 -0.056 4 720022 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.053 0.158 3.122 0.062 -0.082 5 720031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.063 0.165 2.708 0.071 -0.007 6 720032 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.064 0.601 4.175 0.070 0.011 7 720041 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.056 0.434 3.289 0.066 -0.044 8 720042 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.060 0.327 3.601 0.071 -0.115 9 720051 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.061 0.124 3.771 0.072 -0.073 10 720052 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.058 0.177 2.855 0.065 0.011 11 720061 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.108 4.487 30.142 0.083 -0.019 12 720062 1871 1983 113 1.000 0.063 0.329 3.594 0.068 -0.012 13 720071 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.059 1.033 6.326 0.056 -0.012 14 720072 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.055 1.285 7.910 0.057 -0.024 15 720081 1896 1983 88 1.000 0.066 1.079 4.276 0.074 -0.052 16 720082 1892 1983 92 1.000 0.084 2.534 16.132 0.086 -0.005 17 720101 1904 1983 80 1.000 0.054 0.516 3.390 0.059 -0.096 18 720102 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.053 0.764 4.110 0.057 -0.008 19 720111 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.054 0.749 5.303 0.059 -0.058 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 720112 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.054 0.554 3.303 0.060 -0.015 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 148 1.000 0.061 0.792 5.858 0.065 -0.034 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.000 0.014 1.043 6.458 0.009 0.036 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.057 0.484 3.597 0.063 -0.021 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.009 0.728 1.585 0.012 0.050 MINIMUM VALUE 80 1.000 0.047 0.018 2.708 0.053 -0.115 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.054 0.171 3.204 0.059 -0.057 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.063 0.899 4.790 0.071 -0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 1.000 0.108 4.487 30.142 0.086 0.011 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.210 0.127 0.009 -0.008 3.119 -0.092 0.591 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.092 SERIES 720062 AND 720082 92 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.591 SERIES 720011 AND 720012 178 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.38 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 6. 21. 28. 91. 105. 190. RBAR 0.387 0.346 0.174 0.304 0.286 0.181 SDEV 0.110 0.164 0.165 0.123 0.170 0.185 SERR 0.045 0.036 0.031 0.013 0.017 0.013 EPS 0.788 0.834 0.735 0.877 0.884 0.816 NSS 5.9 9.5 13.1 16.3 19.1 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1758 1983 226 0.999 0.035 0.753 4.021 0.042 -0.203 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.064 0.031 0.012 53 173 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 1.33 1.00 1.05 2.38 16.85 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.13 0.00 0.86 0.99 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.202 -0.068 0.143 -0.126 0.142 -0.001 -0.132 -0.005 0.029 0.016 PACF -0.202 -0.114 0.111 -0.085 0.129 0.022 -0.091 -0.095 0.016 0.032 95% C.L. 0.133 0.138 0.139 0.142 0.144 0.146 0.146 0.148 0.148 0.148 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.073 -0.213 -0.093 0.111 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.023 -0.088 0.114 -0.077 0.127 0.001 -0.144 -0.026 0.034 0.041 PACF -0.023 -0.088 0.111 -0.082 0.149 -0.027 -0.103 -0.070 0.037 0.045 95% C.L. 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.136 0.137 0.139 0.139 0.141 0.141 0.142 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.009 -0.024 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1758 1983 226 0.999 0.034 0.696 3.557 0.035 0.136 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.136 -0.047 0.094 -0.039 0.114 -0.003 -0.144 -0.042 0.038 0.065 PACF 0.136 -0.066 0.112 -0.076 0.151 -0.069 -0.104 -0.042 0.059 0.057 95% C.L. 0.133 0.135 0.136 0.137 0.137 0.139 0.139 0.141 0.142 0.142 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.023 0.137 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.21 MINUTES