RUN: MT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: MT105T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: MT105T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 720 1 Hododoo Pass, SW-Superio DENSITY_LATE PCEN - 720 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 1710 4700-11510 1758 1983 720 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 720011 1806 1983 178 6.100 0.704 -0.111 2.604 0.093 0.504 2 720012 1806 1983 178 6.099 0.760 -0.172 2.195 0.086 0.611 3 720021 1763 1983 221 6.434 0.657 -0.832 3.478 0.090 0.378 4 720022 1758 1983 226 6.236 0.715 -0.598 3.412 0.095 0.442 5 720031 1839 1983 145 6.082 0.667 -0.160 2.546 0.076 0.582 6 720032 1826 1983 158 6.445 0.443 -0.704 4.196 0.072 0.081 7 720041 1774 1983 210 5.352 0.620 -0.314 2.351 0.085 0.566 8 720042 1777 1983 207 5.405 0.471 -0.318 3.362 0.086 0.178 9 720051 1840 1983 144 6.622 0.828 -0.217 2.293 0.089 0.610 10 720052 1848 1983 136 6.378 0.913 -0.210 2.304 0.096 0.683 11 720061 1851 1983 133 6.232 0.855 -0.611 2.515 0.076 0.760 12 720062 1871 1983 113 6.585 0.508 -0.807 3.648 0.082 0.127 13 720071 1851 1983 133 6.003 0.617 -0.763 4.196 0.088 0.331 14 720072 1839 1983 145 5.665 0.641 -0.409 2.727 0.106 0.275 15 720081 1896 1983 88 5.690 0.580 0.050 4.891 0.093 0.349 16 720082 1892 1983 92 6.030 0.511 -0.341 5.649 0.080 0.185 17 720101 1904 1983 80 6.612 0.496 -1.003 4.762 0.077 0.116 18 720102 1807 1983 177 6.742 0.750 -0.340 2.483 0.078 0.566 19 720111 1890 1983 94 6.667 0.573 -1.003 4.720 0.082 0.260 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 720112 1890 1983 94 6.575 0.543 -0.881 3.867 0.095 -0.014 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1758 TO 1983 226 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 148 6.198 0.643 -0.487 3.410 0.086 0.380 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.417 0.133 0.321 1.048 0.009 0.224 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 144 6.234 0.631 -0.375 3.387 0.086 0.363 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.563 0.206 0.572 1.697 0.014 0.392 MINIMUM VALUE 80 5.352 0.443 -1.003 2.195 0.072 -0.014 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 6.017 0.527 -0.785 2.499 0.079 0.181 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 6.580 0.732 -0.214 4.196 0.093 0.574 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 6.742 0.913 0.050 5.649 0.106 0.760 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.391 0.197 0.014 -0.294 3.441 -0.375 0.799 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.375 SERIES 720052 AND 720061 133 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.799 SERIES 720111 AND 720112 94 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.38 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 6. 21. 28. 91. 105. 190. RBAR 0.751 0.422 0.426 0.527 0.370 0.339 SDEV 0.123 0.304 0.168 0.188 0.184 0.195 SERR 0.050 0.066 0.032 0.020 0.018 0.014 EPS 0.947 0.874 0.907 0.948 0.918 0.911 NSS 5.9 9.5 13.1 16.3 19.1 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1758 1983 226 6.119 0.495 -0.602 3.534 0.071 0.340 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.014 0.006 0.579 27 199 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.41 1.00 1.05 1.45 5.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 144. 74. 80. 104. 178. 226. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.338 0.291 0.334 0.403 0.379 0.393 0.249 0.302 0.288 0.219 PACF 0.338 0.199 0.221 0.262 0.186 0.193 -0.037 0.044 -0.006 -0.093 95% C.L. 0.133 0.147 0.157 0.169 0.186 0.199 0.212 0.217 0.225 0.231 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.320 0.062 0.019 0.119 0.231 0.177 0.206 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 720011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00508519 5.64465046 2 720012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01006116 5.19851446 3 720021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00295538 6.76252747 4 720022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00136036 6.08161640 5 720031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00399020 5.79057741 6 720032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00086598 6.51365566 7 720041 1 0.82352740 0.03065428 0.00000000 5.22632694 8 720042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00202524 5.61564875 9 720051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01146803 5.79030418 10 720052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01782336 5.15696716 11 720061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01490369 7.23057747 12 720062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00162760 6.49244785 13 720071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00561604 5.62710857 14 720072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00427437 5.35307455 15 720081 1 2.78771877 0.32145616 0.00000000 5.60610437 16 720082 1 2.70230889 0.42037156 0.00000000 5.97411299 17 720101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00213607 6.69863605 18 720102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00621247 6.18895435 19 720111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00809645 7.05192184 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 720112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00362656 6.74704885 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 720011 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.106 -0.344 2.931 0.093 0.410 2 720012 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.089 -0.499 3.769 0.086 0.274 3 720021 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.099 -0.496 3.281 0.090 0.340 4 720022 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.114 -0.618 3.422 0.095 0.427 5 720031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.106 -0.201 2.618 0.075 0.543 6 720032 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.068 -0.716 4.299 0.072 0.073 7 720041 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.111 -0.177 2.585 0.084 0.535 8 720042 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.084 -0.436 3.638 0.085 0.118 9 720051 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.103 -0.224 2.499 0.088 0.388 10 720052 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.095 -0.327 2.965 0.096 0.215 11 720061 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.103 -0.233 3.386 0.075 0.576 12 720062 1871 1983 113 1.000 0.077 -0.786 3.696 0.081 0.115 13 720071 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.096 -0.965 4.338 0.087 0.250 14 720072 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.108 -0.552 3.043 0.105 0.215 15 720081 1896 1983 88 1.000 0.087 -0.891 4.543 0.092 0.141 16 720082 1892 1983 92 1.000 0.075 -1.134 5.899 0.079 0.011 17 720101 1904 1983 80 1.000 0.075 -0.948 4.505 0.076 0.104 18 720102 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.100 -0.329 2.682 0.078 0.487 19 720111 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.080 -0.953 4.743 0.081 0.129 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 720112 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.082 -0.770 3.658 0.094 -0.051 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 148 1.000 0.093 -0.580 3.625 0.086 0.265 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.000 0.014 0.299 0.881 0.009 0.188 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.095 -0.525 3.530 0.085 0.233 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.023 0.511 1.370 0.014 0.302 MINIMUM VALUE 80 1.000 0.068 -1.134 2.499 0.072 -0.051 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.081 -0.839 2.948 0.078 0.117 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.104 -0.328 4.318 0.092 0.418 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 1.000 0.114 -0.177 5.899 0.105 0.576 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 720011 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 720012 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 720021 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 720022 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 720031 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 720032 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 720041 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 720042 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 720051 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 720052 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 720061 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 720062 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 720071 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 720072 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 720081 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 720082 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 720101 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 720102 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 720111 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 720112 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 720011 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.086 -0.581 3.394 0.093 0.114 2 720012 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.082 -0.631 4.055 0.086 0.125 3 720021 1763 1983 221 0.999 0.085 -0.552 3.490 0.090 0.085 4 720022 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.110 -0.682 3.543 0.095 0.383 5 720031 1839 1983 145 0.999 0.074 -0.029 2.823 0.075 0.125 6 720032 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.065 -0.742 4.613 0.072 -0.028 7 720041 1774 1983 210 0.999 0.100 -0.405 2.915 0.084 0.421 8 720042 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.083 -0.416 3.622 0.085 0.098 9 720051 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.095 -0.295 2.666 0.088 0.275 10 720052 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.092 -0.246 2.936 0.096 0.172 11 720061 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.079 -0.574 4.399 0.075 0.265 12 720062 1871 1983 113 1.000 0.074 -0.835 3.943 0.081 0.055 13 720071 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.089 -1.000 4.830 0.087 0.104 14 720072 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.101 -0.521 3.369 0.105 0.093 15 720081 1896 1983 88 1.000 0.082 -0.939 4.810 0.092 0.033 16 720082 1892 1983 92 1.000 0.074 -1.021 5.650 0.079 -0.036 17 720101 1904 1983 80 1.000 0.071 -0.899 4.585 0.077 -0.007 18 720102 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.076 -0.775 4.756 0.078 0.106 19 720111 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.076 -0.892 4.737 0.081 0.027 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 720112 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.080 -0.751 3.662 0.094 -0.110 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 148 1.000 0.084 -0.639 3.940 0.086 0.115 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.000 0.011 0.267 0.826 0.009 0.135 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.082 -0.657 3.803 0.085 0.101 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.015 0.395 1.294 0.014 0.118 MINIMUM VALUE 80 0.999 0.065 -1.021 2.666 0.072 -0.110 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.075 -0.863 3.382 0.078 0.030 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.090 -0.468 4.675 0.092 0.149 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 1.000 0.110 -0.029 5.650 0.105 0.421 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.450 0.148 0.011 0.047 2.340 0.142 0.815 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.142 SERIES 720022 AND 720111 94 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.815 SERIES 720111 AND 720112 94 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.38 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 6. 21. 28. 91. 105. 190. RBAR 0.759 0.444 0.475 0.520 0.384 0.351 SDEV 0.117 0.211 0.151 0.169 0.175 0.184 SERR 0.048 0.046 0.029 0.018 0.017 0.013 EPS 0.949 0.884 0.922 0.946 0.923 0.915 NSS 5.9 9.5 13.1 16.3 19.1 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1758 1983 226 1.002 0.066 -1.071 5.199 0.072 -0.049 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.226 -0.080 0.134 55 171 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.62 1.00 1.05 1.67 508.82 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.049 -0.092 -0.005 0.144 0.073 0.123 -0.072 0.039 0.035 -0.053 PACF -0.049 -0.094 -0.014 0.136 0.089 0.163 -0.040 0.039 0.005 -0.097 95% C.L. 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.137 0.138 0.140 0.140 0.141 0.141 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.005 -0.090 0.022 0.139 0.075 0.186 -0.102 0.025 0.008 0.057 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.005 2 0.006 -0.090 3 0.008 -0.090 0.023 4 0.005 -0.078 0.022 0.131 5 -0.006 -0.080 0.029 0.131 0.079 6 -0.023 -0.108 0.022 0.148 0.080 0.215 7 -0.002 -0.100 0.037 0.150 0.070 0.213 -0.098 8 0.003 -0.109 0.034 0.144 0.068 0.217 -0.098 0.041 9 0.004 -0.114 0.044 0.147 0.075 0.219 -0.103 0.041 -0.048 10 0.005 -0.114 0.045 0.146 0.074 0.217 -0.103 0.042 -0.048 0.008 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1163.81 1165.80 1165.97 1167.85 1165.92 1166.51 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1157.81 1157.65 1159.26 1160.74 1162.73 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 7 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.002 -0.100 0.037 0.150 0.070 0.213 -0.098 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.53 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 109.33 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 7) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.002 -0.100 0.037 0.160 0.062 0.183 -0.100 -0.010 0.055 0.0595 -0.011 0.020 -0.028 0.018 0.019 0.007 -0.012 0.006 -0.003 0.0078 0.001 -0.001 -0.003 0.004 0.000 0.001 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0013 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 720011 7 0.119 0.094 -0.107 0.136 0.180 0.098 0.149 -0.147 2 720012 7 0.080 0.135 0.031 0.022 0.109 0.005 0.167 -0.163 3 720021 7 0.145 -0.034 0.049 0.064 0.116 0.246 0.194 -0.014 4 720022 7 0.266 0.210 0.148 0.045 0.108 0.173 0.128 -0.088 5 720031 7 0.043 0.131 0.012 0.061 -0.071 0.045 0.086 -0.054 6 720032 7 0.033 -0.034 -0.105 0.001 0.119 0.008 0.076 0.025 7 720041 7 0.280 0.254 0.181 0.154 0.163 -0.028 0.032 -0.116 8 720042 7 0.077 0.048 0.098 0.156 0.158 -0.007 -0.016 -0.098 9 720051 7 0.098 0.293 -0.049 0.079 0.016 -0.103 0.061 -0.007 10 720052 7 0.067 0.176 -0.076 0.004 -0.002 -0.174 -0.003 -0.053 11 720061 7 0.097 0.278 -0.058 0.093 0.031 0.089 -0.080 0.025 12 720062 7 0.076 0.088 -0.166 0.031 0.030 -0.099 0.188 0.010 13 720071 7 0.026 0.116 -0.038 0.006 0.015 -0.009 0.112 -0.041 14 720072 7 0.072 0.104 -0.116 0.071 0.131 0.036 0.128 -0.125 15 720081 7 0.120 0.068 0.019 0.004 0.030 0.063 0.171 -0.290 16 720082 7 0.129 -0.073 -0.174 -0.103 -0.163 -0.140 -0.033 -0.219 17 720101 7 0.148 -0.009 -0.114 0.055 0.070 0.176 0.175 -0.226 18 720102 7 0.096 0.081 0.044 0.065 0.176 0.061 0.136 -0.154 19 720111 7 0.098 0.054 -0.105 -0.076 -0.073 -0.151 0.129 -0.225 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 720112 7 0.125 -0.079 -0.134 0.003 -0.042 -0.006 0.146 -0.238 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 7 0.110 0.095 -0.033 0.044 0.055 0.014 0.097 -0.110 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.065 0.110 0.102 0.066 0.094 0.113 0.080 0.096 MEDIAN 7 0.097 0.091 -0.054 0.050 0.050 0.007 0.128 -0.107 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.053 0.136 0.148 0.071 0.119 0.140 0.111 0.164 MINIMUM VALUE 7 0.026 -0.079 -0.174 -0.103 -0.163 -0.174 -0.080 -0.290 LOWER HINGE 7 0.074 0.020 -0.111 0.004 0.006 -0.064 0.047 -0.191 UPPER HINGE 7 0.127 0.155 0.037 0.075 0.125 0.076 0.158 -0.027 MAXIMUM VALUE 7 0.280 0.293 0.181 0.156 0.180 0.246 0.194 0.025 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 720011 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.081 -0.382 3.358 0.091 0.003 2 720012 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.078 -0.634 4.312 0.087 -0.004 3 720021 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.079 -0.544 3.233 0.088 -0.001 4 720022 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.094 -0.271 3.200 0.103 -0.003 5 720031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.072 -0.238 3.464 0.079 0.005 6 720032 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.064 -0.683 4.473 0.068 0.001 7 720041 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.085 -0.583 3.125 0.094 -0.002 8 720042 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.080 -0.405 3.583 0.088 0.005 9 720051 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.090 -0.332 2.914 0.100 0.000 10 720052 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.089 -0.399 3.036 0.103 -0.001 11 720061 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.075 -0.712 4.132 0.084 -0.001 12 720062 1871 1983 113 1.000 0.072 -1.082 4.568 0.079 0.000 13 720071 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.087 -0.980 4.886 0.093 -0.004 14 720072 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.098 -0.422 3.755 0.105 -0.001 15 720081 1896 1983 88 1.000 0.077 -0.649 4.421 0.085 0.022 16 720082 1892 1983 92 1.000 0.070 -1.248 6.504 0.075 -0.042 17 720101 1904 1983 80 1.000 0.065 -0.613 4.430 0.071 -0.008 18 720102 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.073 -0.611 4.462 0.075 0.004 19 720111 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.072 -0.889 5.351 0.077 0.015 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 720112 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.074 -0.553 3.448 0.083 0.016 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 148 1.000 0.079 -0.611 4.033 0.086 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.000 0.009 0.269 0.901 0.011 0.012 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.078 -0.597 3.944 0.086 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.014 0.296 1.172 0.016 0.007 MINIMUM VALUE 80 1.000 0.064 -1.248 2.914 0.068 -0.042 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.072 -0.697 3.295 0.078 -0.003 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.086 -0.402 4.468 0.093 0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 1.000 0.098 -0.238 6.504 0.105 0.022 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.447 0.141 0.010 -0.106 2.352 0.115 0.799 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.115 SERIES 720032 AND 720101 80 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.799 SERIES 720111 AND 720112 94 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.38 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 6. 21. 28. 91. 105. 190. RBAR 0.783 0.513 0.507 0.537 0.416 0.349 SDEV 0.067 0.165 0.120 0.148 0.164 0.168 SERR 0.027 0.036 0.023 0.016 0.016 0.012 EPS 0.955 0.909 0.931 0.950 0.931 0.915 NSS 5.9 9.5 13.1 16.3 19.1 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.062 -1.041 5.265 0.071 -0.147 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.055 -0.019 0.069 45 181 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.69 1.00 1.05 1.73 534.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.12 0.00 0.86 0.99 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.147 -0.117 -0.094 0.084 0.005 0.020 0.026 0.065 0.012 -0.109 PACF -0.147 -0.141 -0.140 0.028 -0.007 0.025 0.051 0.088 0.059 -0.076 95% C.L. 0.133 0.136 0.138 0.139 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.061 -0.188 -0.166 -0.143 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.006 -0.004 0.005 0.000 0.012 0.030 0.006 0.087 0.025 -0.115 PACF -0.006 -0.004 0.005 0.000 0.012 0.030 0.006 0.088 0.026 -0.115 95% C.L. 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.134 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.009 -0.006 -0.004 0.005 0.000 0.013 0.030 0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.063 -0.968 4.812 0.068 -0.002 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 -0.080 0.039 0.126 0.097 0.183 -0.128 0.073 0.068 -0.035 PACF -0.002 -0.080 0.039 0.120 0.106 0.209 -0.122 0.084 0.005 -0.077 95% C.L. 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.136 0.137 0.142 0.144 0.144 0.145 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.15 MINUTES