RUN: MT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: MT105W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: MT105W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 720 1 Hododoo Pass, SW-Superio WIDTH_RING PCEN - 720 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 1710 4700-11510 1758 1983 720 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 720011 1806 1983 178 2.016 0.557 0.344 3.000 0.153 0.723 2 720012 1806 1983 178 2.025 0.673 1.017 3.802 0.145 0.824 3 720021 1763 1983 221 1.293 0.596 0.920 2.807 0.133 0.923 4 720022 1758 1983 226 1.549 0.615 0.775 2.826 0.134 0.905 5 720031 1839 1983 145 1.720 0.576 0.514 3.556 0.157 0.761 6 720032 1826 1983 158 1.851 0.537 0.599 3.217 0.136 0.812 7 720041 1774 1983 210 1.746 0.872 1.255 4.199 0.154 0.910 8 720042 1777 1983 207 1.718 0.899 1.765 5.333 0.154 0.898 9 720051 1840 1983 144 2.411 0.921 0.272 2.472 0.187 0.832 10 720052 1848 1983 136 2.613 0.978 0.217 2.338 0.191 0.794 11 720061 1851 1983 133 2.346 1.254 0.341 1.988 0.180 0.911 12 720062 1871 1983 113 2.824 1.314 0.451 1.974 0.143 0.918 13 720071 1851 1983 133 1.739 0.425 -0.143 2.801 0.160 0.672 14 720072 1839 1983 145 2.414 1.061 0.449 2.487 0.140 0.916 15 720081 1896 1983 88 3.050 0.823 0.740 3.385 0.176 0.667 16 720082 1892 1983 92 2.705 0.983 0.151 2.514 0.194 0.763 17 720101 1904 1983 80 2.899 0.813 0.877 4.405 0.151 0.722 18 720102 1807 1983 177 1.562 0.665 0.748 3.565 0.159 0.860 19 720111 1890 1983 94 2.970 0.988 0.647 2.638 0.129 0.838 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 720112 1890 1983 94 3.229 0.901 0.364 2.102 0.122 0.853 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1758 TO 1983 226 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 148 2.234 0.823 0.615 3.071 0.155 0.825 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.584 0.241 0.427 0.876 0.021 0.084 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 144 2.186 0.848 0.556 2.816 0.153 0.835 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 1.035 0.375 0.484 1.081 0.030 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 80 1.293 0.425 -0.143 1.974 0.122 0.667 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.730 0.606 0.342 2.480 0.138 0.762 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 2.765 0.981 0.826 3.561 0.168 0.908 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 3.229 1.314 1.765 5.333 0.194 0.923 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.370 0.271 0.020 -0.263 2.787 -0.383 0.965 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.383 SERIES 720042 AND 720062 113 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.965 SERIES 720061 AND 720062 113 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.38 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 6. 21. 28. 91. 105. 190. RBAR 0.719 0.237 0.275 0.267 0.281 0.269 SDEV 0.118 0.420 0.384 0.244 0.283 0.295 SERR 0.048 0.092 0.073 0.026 0.028 0.021 EPS 0.938 0.747 0.833 0.856 0.881 0.881 NSS 5.9 9.5 13.1 16.3 19.1 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1758 1983 226 2.109 0.507 0.593 3.590 0.108 0.817 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.307 0.225 0.301 54 172 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.85 1.00 1.05 1.90 7.31 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.15 0.00 0.85 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 144. 74. 80. 104. 178. 226. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.813 0.746 0.684 0.635 0.607 0.597 0.546 0.522 0.489 0.474 PACF 0.813 0.250 0.084 0.049 0.080 0.106 -0.058 0.026 -0.001 0.044 95% C.L. 0.133 0.203 0.247 0.278 0.303 0.324 0.342 0.357 0.371 0.382 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.697 0.600 0.268 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 720011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00403097 2.37667108 2 720012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00026621 2.00100541 3 720021 1 2.20181656 0.00814805 0.00000000 0.27690062 4 720022 1 2.56047988 0.00512910 0.00000000 0.03714754 5 720031 1 1.83552313 0.00917747 0.00000000 0.71039110 6 720032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00587232 2.31735539 7 720041 1 2.86869526 0.02191722 0.00000000 1.13607049 8 720042 1 3.75077701 0.03614678 0.00000000 1.22561276 9 720051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01790274 3.70933771 10 720052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01901081 3.91525483 11 720061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.02608252 4.09392023 12 720062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.03692428 4.92902040 13 720071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00184460 1.86223507 14 720072 1 4.07158518 0.01122142 0.00000000 0.41472283 15 720081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00756366 3.38612843 16 720082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00840066 3.09584808 17 720101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01662776 3.57242393 18 720102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00459992 1.15292311 19 720111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01102633 3.49385715 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 720112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01465311 3.92485237 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 720011 1806 1983 178 0.999 0.261 0.734 3.560 0.152 0.676 2 720012 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.332 1.008 3.758 0.144 0.819 3 720021 1763 1983 221 1.001 0.218 0.547 3.137 0.133 0.695 4 720022 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.222 0.703 3.222 0.133 0.696 5 720031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.262 0.408 2.744 0.156 0.661 6 720032 1826 1983 158 0.999 0.262 1.381 5.754 0.135 0.786 7 720041 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.303 0.659 3.065 0.153 0.792 8 720042 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.233 0.411 2.882 0.153 0.628 9 720051 1840 1983 144 0.997 0.232 0.701 4.042 0.186 0.538 10 720052 1848 1983 136 0.996 0.243 0.731 3.895 0.189 0.540 11 720061 1851 1983 133 0.983 0.271 -0.153 2.352 0.180 0.708 12 720062 1871 1983 113 1.021 0.211 0.080 3.979 0.143 0.623 13 720071 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.243 -0.071 2.758 0.159 0.656 14 720072 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.259 0.246 3.205 0.139 0.778 15 720081 1896 1983 88 1.000 0.260 0.779 3.738 0.174 0.646 16 720082 1892 1983 92 0.999 0.352 0.187 2.689 0.192 0.750 17 720101 1904 1983 80 0.998 0.239 1.056 5.400 0.149 0.614 18 720102 1807 1983 177 0.994 0.381 0.604 3.059 0.158 0.832 19 720111 1890 1983 94 0.998 0.309 0.708 2.890 0.128 0.811 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 720112 1890 1983 94 0.998 0.241 0.373 2.545 0.121 0.791 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 148 0.999 0.267 0.555 3.434 0.154 0.702 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.006 0.046 0.381 0.884 0.021 0.090 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 144 0.999 0.260 0.632 3.171 0.152 0.696 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.002 0.051 0.423 1.007 0.030 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 80 0.983 0.211 -0.153 2.352 0.121 0.538 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 0.998 0.236 0.310 2.820 0.137 0.637 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.287 0.732 3.827 0.166 0.789 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 1.021 0.381 1.381 5.754 0.192 0.832 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 720011 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 720012 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 720021 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 720022 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 720031 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 720032 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 720041 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 720042 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 720051 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 720052 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 720061 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 720062 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 720071 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 720072 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 720081 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 720082 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 720101 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 720102 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 720111 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 720112 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 720011 1806 1983 178 0.999 0.210 0.323 3.068 0.152 0.539 2 720012 1806 1983 178 0.997 0.263 0.420 3.005 0.145 0.741 3 720021 1763 1983 221 0.995 0.184 0.467 3.183 0.132 0.580 4 720022 1758 1983 226 0.997 0.198 0.637 3.244 0.133 0.629 5 720031 1839 1983 145 0.996 0.234 0.710 3.362 0.156 0.615 6 720032 1826 1983 158 0.997 0.234 1.061 4.892 0.135 0.741 7 720041 1774 1983 210 0.994 0.254 0.536 2.781 0.153 0.698 8 720042 1777 1983 207 0.998 0.209 0.706 3.811 0.153 0.534 9 720051 1840 1983 144 0.999 0.224 0.538 3.426 0.186 0.500 10 720052 1848 1983 136 0.999 0.227 0.401 3.388 0.189 0.490 11 720061 1851 1983 133 0.992 0.223 -0.310 3.059 0.180 0.572 12 720062 1871 1983 113 0.999 0.168 -0.429 4.856 0.143 0.445 13 720071 1851 1983 133 0.999 0.238 -0.139 2.751 0.159 0.645 14 720072 1839 1983 145 0.993 0.221 0.108 3.282 0.139 0.714 15 720081 1896 1983 88 0.997 0.204 -0.004 2.897 0.174 0.445 16 720082 1892 1983 92 0.995 0.260 -0.525 3.564 0.192 0.594 17 720101 1904 1983 80 0.998 0.195 0.541 3.934 0.148 0.476 18 720102 1807 1983 177 0.991 0.232 0.778 4.294 0.158 0.621 19 720111 1890 1983 94 0.995 0.142 0.489 2.937 0.125 0.319 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 720112 1890 1983 94 0.994 0.136 -0.202 2.496 0.120 0.392 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 148 0.996 0.213 0.305 3.412 0.154 0.565 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.002 0.035 0.440 0.656 0.021 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 144 0.997 0.222 0.443 3.263 0.152 0.576 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.004 0.037 0.661 0.717 0.030 0.154 MINIMUM VALUE 80 0.991 0.136 -0.525 2.496 0.120 0.319 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 0.995 0.197 -0.072 2.971 0.137 0.483 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 0.998 0.234 0.589 3.688 0.166 0.637 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 0.999 0.263 1.061 4.892 0.192 0.741 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.270 0.164 0.012 -0.027 3.346 -0.191 0.743 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.191 SERIES 720071 AND 720101 80 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.743 SERIES 720081 AND 720082 88 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.38 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 6. 21. 28. 91. 105. 190. RBAR 0.435 0.316 0.432 0.257 0.316 0.299 SDEV 0.185 0.246 0.208 0.214 0.247 0.239 SERR 0.075 0.054 0.039 0.022 0.024 0.017 EPS 0.820 0.815 0.909 0.849 0.898 0.895 NSS 5.9 9.5 13.1 16.3 19.1 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1758 1983 226 0.992 0.137 0.192 2.890 0.109 0.498 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.280 0.137 0.022 41 185 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.23 0.49 1.00 1.11 1.60 16.63 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.86 0.98 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.496 0.349 0.247 0.167 0.088 0.101 0.024 0.061 0.051 0.044 PACF 0.496 0.136 0.040 0.002 -0.036 0.060 -0.064 0.065 0.008 0.003 95% C.L. 0.133 0.163 0.175 0.181 0.184 0.185 0.186 0.186 0.186 0.186 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.262 0.428 0.138 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.525 0.301 0.196 0.105 0.038 0.078 -0.016 -0.037 -0.020 0.020 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.525 2 0.507 0.035 3 0.506 0.016 0.036 4 0.507 0.017 0.048 -0.024 5 0.506 0.018 0.049 -0.010 -0.028 6 0.508 0.019 0.044 -0.012 -0.074 0.091 7 0.519 0.010 0.043 -0.007 -0.072 0.151 -0.119 8 0.519 0.010 0.043 -0.007 -0.072 0.151 -0.119 0.001 9 0.519 0.012 0.041 -0.006 -0.071 0.150 -0.119 -0.006 0.014 10 0.519 0.012 0.047 -0.013 -0.068 0.151 -0.121 -0.006 -0.013 0.052 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1500.66 1429.79 1431.52 1433.23 1435.10 1436.92 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1437.06 1435.86 1437.86 1439.82 1441.21 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.525 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 27.56 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 138.05 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.525 0.276 0.145 0.076 0.040 0.021 0.011 0.006 0.003 0.0016 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 720011 1 0.295 0.541 2 720012 1 0.557 0.746 3 720021 1 0.360 0.587 4 720022 1 0.414 0.629 5 720031 1 0.403 0.626 6 720032 1 0.553 0.742 7 720041 1 0.497 0.704 8 720042 1 0.309 0.538 9 720051 1 0.272 0.502 10 720052 1 0.244 0.491 11 720061 1 0.331 0.573 12 720062 1 0.200 0.447 13 720071 1 0.422 0.649 14 720072 1 0.514 0.715 15 720081 1 0.242 0.449 16 720082 1 0.354 0.595 17 720101 1 0.241 0.477 18 720102 1 0.395 0.623 19 720111 1 0.103 0.320 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 720112 1 0.183 0.406 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.344 0.568 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.126 0.116 MEDIAN 1 0.343 0.580 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.175 0.155 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.103 0.320 LOWER HINGE 1 0.243 0.484 UPPER HINGE 1 0.418 0.639 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.557 0.746 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 720011 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.176 0.411 3.615 0.183 0.028 2 720012 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.174 0.295 4.011 0.191 0.004 3 720021 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.148 0.439 3.322 0.173 -0.087 4 720022 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.154 0.552 3.307 0.181 -0.108 5 720031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.182 -0.002 3.557 0.190 0.078 6 720032 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.157 0.116 3.010 0.179 -0.060 7 720041 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.180 0.337 3.260 0.214 -0.043 8 720042 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.176 0.295 3.125 0.204 -0.084 9 720051 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.193 0.048 3.383 0.233 -0.081 10 720052 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.198 0.269 3.028 0.226 0.027 11 720061 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.183 -0.423 3.694 0.215 -0.042 12 720062 1871 1983 113 1.000 0.150 -0.868 6.037 0.170 0.005 13 720071 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.181 -0.221 4.827 0.203 -0.023 14 720072 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.154 -0.006 3.878 0.175 -0.045 15 720081 1896 1983 88 1.000 0.182 -0.001 3.087 0.217 -0.103 16 720082 1892 1983 92 1.000 0.209 -0.171 3.492 0.239 0.009 17 720101 1904 1983 80 1.000 0.171 0.881 5.083 0.177 0.063 18 720102 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.181 0.404 5.262 0.204 -0.066 19 720111 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.134 -0.206 3.597 0.143 0.009 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 720112 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.124 -0.375 2.539 0.133 0.042 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 148 1.000 0.170 0.089 3.756 0.192 -0.024 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.000 0.021 0.399 0.883 0.028 0.056 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.176 0.082 3.525 0.191 -0.033 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.028 0.560 0.752 0.039 0.092 MINIMUM VALUE 80 1.000 0.124 -0.868 2.539 0.133 -0.108 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.154 -0.189 3.193 0.176 -0.074 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.182 0.371 3.945 0.215 0.018 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 1.000 0.209 0.881 6.037 0.239 0.078 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.325 0.127 0.009 0.409 4.475 -0.023 0.725 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.023 SERIES 720022 AND 720101 80 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.725 SERIES 720041 AND 720042 207 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.38 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 6. 21. 28. 91. 105. 190. RBAR 0.619 0.464 0.522 0.371 0.379 0.340 SDEV 0.098 0.161 0.130 0.129 0.141 0.152 SERR 0.040 0.035 0.025 0.013 0.014 0.011 EPS 0.905 0.892 0.935 0.906 0.921 0.912 NSS 5.9 9.5 13.1 16.3 19.1 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.113 -0.119 3.531 0.139 -0.156 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.240 0.106 0.012 44 182 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.43 1.01 1.07 1.50 3.44 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.13 0.00 0.86 0.99 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.155 0.046 0.034 0.031 -0.058 0.110 -0.097 0.048 -0.019 0.006 PACF -0.155 0.023 0.046 0.043 -0.052 0.091 -0.069 0.021 -0.010 -0.001 95% C.L. 0.133 0.136 0.136 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.139 0.140 0.140 0.140 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.025 -0.155 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 0.030 0.048 0.029 -0.039 0.090 -0.077 0.031 -0.012 0.004 PACF 0.004 0.030 0.048 0.028 -0.042 0.087 -0.079 0.031 -0.015 0.003 95% C.L. 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.135 0.136 0.136 0.136 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.134 0.223 2.862 0.101 0.552 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.550 0.331 0.217 0.131 0.065 0.078 0.001 0.025 0.017 0.032 PACF 0.550 0.041 0.028 -0.009 -0.022 0.063 -0.090 0.065 -0.015 0.032 95% C.L. 0.133 0.169 0.180 0.184 0.186 0.186 0.187 0.187 0.187 0.187 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.304 0.550 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES