RUN: MT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: MT105X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: MT105X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 720 1 Hododoo Pass, SW-Superio DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCEN - 720 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 1710 4700-11510 1758 1983 720 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 720011 1806 1983 178 0.718 0.086 -0.132 2.709 0.100 0.470 2 720012 1806 1983 178 0.714 0.095 -0.135 2.177 0.089 0.608 3 720021 1763 1983 221 0.744 0.083 -0.858 3.519 0.092 0.448 4 720022 1758 1983 226 0.720 0.087 -0.615 3.511 0.102 0.444 5 720031 1839 1983 145 0.707 0.081 -0.242 2.423 0.086 0.533 6 720032 1826 1983 158 0.759 0.058 -0.764 4.170 0.076 0.162 7 720041 1774 1983 210 0.629 0.082 -0.260 2.282 0.088 0.623 8 720042 1777 1983 207 0.631 0.064 -0.130 3.083 0.093 0.288 9 720051 1840 1983 144 0.780 0.100 -0.350 2.496 0.096 0.564 10 720052 1848 1983 136 0.749 0.111 -0.250 2.294 0.105 0.661 11 720061 1851 1983 133 0.726 0.111 -0.690 2.517 0.082 0.786 12 720062 1871 1983 113 0.771 0.063 -0.796 3.504 0.087 0.095 13 720071 1851 1983 133 0.689 0.074 -0.800 3.955 0.092 0.365 14 720072 1839 1983 145 0.652 0.077 -0.530 2.927 0.111 0.244 15 720081 1896 1983 88 0.669 0.069 -0.446 4.382 0.100 0.290 16 720082 1892 1983 92 0.708 0.062 -1.025 5.789 0.080 0.207 17 720101 1904 1983 80 0.782 0.066 -1.443 5.280 0.083 0.176 18 720102 1807 1983 177 0.772 0.091 -0.389 2.507 0.082 0.578 19 720111 1890 1983 94 0.777 0.076 -1.031 4.593 0.094 0.253 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 720112 1890 1983 94 0.766 0.072 -0.997 3.701 0.105 0.029 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1758 TO 1983 226 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 148 0.723 0.080 -0.594 3.391 0.092 0.391 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.049 0.016 0.368 1.046 0.009 0.210 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 144 0.723 0.079 -0.572 3.294 0.092 0.404 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.070 0.022 0.574 1.561 0.016 0.346 MINIMUM VALUE 80 0.629 0.058 -1.443 2.177 0.076 0.029 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 0.698 0.067 -0.829 2.502 0.084 0.226 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 0.768 0.089 -0.255 4.063 0.100 0.571 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 0.782 0.111 -0.130 5.789 0.111 0.786 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.429 0.199 0.014 -0.413 3.524 -0.368 0.864 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.368 SERIES 720052 AND 720061 133 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.864 SERIES 720111 AND 720112 94 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.38 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 6. 21. 28. 91. 105. 190. RBAR 0.746 0.419 0.434 0.550 0.395 0.388 SDEV 0.128 0.300 0.182 0.194 0.184 0.194 SERR 0.052 0.065 0.034 0.020 0.018 0.014 EPS 0.945 0.873 0.909 0.952 0.926 0.927 NSS 5.9 9.5 13.1 16.3 19.1 20.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1758 1983 226 0.717 0.062 -0.508 3.252 0.077 0.314 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.046 -0.019 0.086 29 197 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.46 1.01 1.07 1.53 5.18 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 144. 74. 80. 104. 178. 226. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.313 0.232 0.304 0.358 0.351 0.392 0.211 0.267 0.241 0.199 PACF 0.313 0.149 0.222 0.235 0.193 0.232 -0.044 0.058 -0.038 -0.074 95% C.L. 0.133 0.145 0.152 0.162 0.176 0.188 0.202 0.206 0.212 0.216 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.295 0.075 -0.016 0.119 0.204 0.171 0.244 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 720011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00048456 0.67421633 2 720012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00123447 0.60316700 3 720021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00051143 0.80043441 4 720022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009086 0.70946664 5 720031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035400 0.68119252 6 720032 1 0.03136566 0.03523813 0.00000000 0.75391674 7 720041 1 0.14032549 0.02394044 0.00000000 0.60155541 8 720042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00040998 0.67350781 9 720051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00127944 0.68710178 10 720052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00208905 0.60550326 11 720061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00203533 0.86283320 12 720062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006238 0.77479458 13 720071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00064961 0.64595008 14 720072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030428 0.62930459 15 720081 1 0.26444981 0.34256026 0.00000000 0.66116720 16 720082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00066705 0.73949593 17 720101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00041128 0.79903162 18 720102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00078096 0.70235938 19 720111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00111317 0.83010983 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 720112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00059069 0.79358959 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 720011 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.114 -0.328 3.005 0.099 0.410 2 720012 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.097 -0.285 3.297 0.089 0.287 3 720021 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.105 -0.464 3.174 0.092 0.373 4 720022 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.121 -0.625 3.506 0.102 0.436 5 720031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.113 -0.329 2.552 0.085 0.506 6 720032 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.075 -0.764 4.244 0.075 0.143 7 720041 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.120 -0.082 2.591 0.088 0.561 8 720042 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.092 -0.382 3.435 0.093 0.165 9 720051 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.110 -0.380 2.601 0.096 0.362 10 720052 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.103 -0.310 2.869 0.104 0.231 11 720061 1851 1983 133 0.999 0.110 -0.191 2.892 0.081 0.587 12 720062 1871 1983 113 1.000 0.082 -0.805 3.502 0.086 0.095 13 720071 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.101 -0.985 4.118 0.092 0.292 14 720072 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.116 -0.580 3.051 0.110 0.223 15 720081 1896 1983 88 1.000 0.095 -0.981 4.193 0.099 0.159 16 720082 1892 1983 92 1.000 0.084 -1.168 5.786 0.079 0.138 17 720101 1904 1983 80 1.000 0.083 -1.384 4.922 0.082 0.153 18 720102 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.106 -0.468 2.818 0.082 0.492 19 720111 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.091 -0.857 4.553 0.093 0.106 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 720112 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.092 -0.818 3.402 0.104 -0.027 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 148 1.000 0.100 -0.609 3.526 0.092 0.285 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.000 0.013 0.349 0.862 0.009 0.174 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.102 -0.524 3.349 0.092 0.259 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.020 0.509 1.275 0.016 0.275 MINIMUM VALUE 80 0.999 0.075 -1.384 2.552 0.075 -0.027 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.091 -0.838 2.881 0.084 0.148 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.111 -0.329 4.156 0.099 0.423 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 1.000 0.121 -0.082 5.786 0.110 0.587 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 720011 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 720012 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 720021 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 720022 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 720031 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 720032 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 720041 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 720042 -67 138 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 720051 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 720052 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 720061 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 720062 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 720071 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 720072 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 720081 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 720082 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 720101 -67 53 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 720102 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 720111 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 720112 -67 62 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 720011 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.093 -0.541 3.480 0.099 0.098 2 720012 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.088 -0.408 3.519 0.089 0.145 3 720021 1763 1983 221 0.999 0.089 -0.543 3.494 0.092 0.112 4 720022 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.116 -0.684 3.617 0.102 0.383 5 720031 1839 1983 145 0.999 0.081 -0.300 3.024 0.085 0.107 6 720032 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.070 -0.884 4.754 0.075 0.000 7 720041 1774 1983 210 0.999 0.107 -0.312 2.863 0.087 0.449 8 720042 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.092 -0.331 3.461 0.093 0.149 9 720051 1840 1983 144 0.999 0.101 -0.429 2.764 0.095 0.243 10 720052 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.100 -0.254 2.760 0.104 0.186 11 720061 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.081 -0.432 3.668 0.081 0.243 12 720062 1871 1983 113 1.000 0.079 -0.842 3.662 0.087 0.029 13 720071 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.094 -1.057 4.573 0.092 0.157 14 720072 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.109 -0.525 3.422 0.110 0.106 15 720081 1896 1983 88 1.000 0.089 -1.023 4.502 0.099 0.049 16 720082 1892 1983 92 1.000 0.082 -1.128 6.000 0.079 0.079 17 720101 1904 1983 80 1.000 0.079 -1.355 4.983 0.082 0.053 18 720102 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.080 -0.918 5.047 0.082 0.106 19 720111 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.087 -0.821 4.556 0.093 0.007 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 720112 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.089 -0.787 3.446 0.104 -0.093 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 148 1.000 0.090 -0.679 3.880 0.092 0.130 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.000 0.012 0.318 0.877 0.009 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.089 -0.613 3.568 0.092 0.106 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.016 0.483 1.131 0.016 0.121 MINIMUM VALUE 80 0.999 0.070 -1.355 2.760 0.075 -0.093 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.081 -0.901 3.434 0.084 0.051 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.097 -0.418 4.564 0.099 0.171 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 1.000 0.116 -0.254 6.000 0.110 0.449 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.481 0.158 0.011 -0.026 2.332 0.114 0.872 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.114 SERIES 720022 AND 720111 94 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.872 SERIES 720111 AND 720112 94 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.38 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 6. 21. 28. 91. 105. 190. RBAR 0.761 0.465 0.504 0.544 0.413 0.403 SDEV 0.111 0.197 0.138 0.177 0.184 0.183 SERR 0.045 0.043 0.026 0.019 0.018 0.013 EPS 0.949 0.892 0.930 0.951 0.931 0.931 NSS 5.9 9.5 13.1 16.3 19.1 20.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1758 1983 226 1.002 0.072 -0.882 4.667 0.077 -0.037 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.216 -0.072 0.129 58 168 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.36 1.00 1.11 1.47 6.94 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.037 -0.118 0.000 0.114 0.074 0.151 -0.087 0.046 0.017 -0.049 PACF -0.037 -0.120 -0.009 0.101 0.084 0.188 -0.054 0.069 -0.016 -0.086 95% C.L. 0.133 0.133 0.135 0.135 0.137 0.137 0.140 0.141 0.142 0.142 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.029 -0.107 0.037 0.129 0.067 0.202 -0.080 0.025 0.020 0.049 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.029 2 0.032 -0.108 3 0.036 -0.109 0.044 4 0.031 -0.096 0.040 0.117 5 0.023 -0.099 0.047 0.115 0.070 6 0.007 -0.125 0.036 0.137 0.065 0.229 7 0.028 -0.120 0.048 0.141 0.053 0.230 -0.090 8 0.033 -0.133 0.045 0.132 0.050 0.237 -0.091 0.060 9 0.035 -0.137 0.055 0.134 0.056 0.239 -0.097 0.062 -0.040 10 0.036 -0.137 0.055 0.133 0.055 0.238 -0.097 0.062 -0.040 0.006 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1208.59 1210.41 1209.77 1211.33 1210.22 1211.11 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1200.91 1201.08 1202.26 1203.91 1205.90 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 6 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.007 -0.125 0.036 0.137 0.065 0.229 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.34 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 109.10 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 6) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.007 -0.125 0.034 0.154 0.058 0.195 -0.002 -0.028 0.033 0.0694 0.021 0.033 0.002 0.002 0.016 0.022 0.006 0.006 0.003 0.0039 0.006 0.006 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0006 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 720011 6 0.137 0.057 -0.153 0.135 0.185 0.101 0.177 2 720012 6 0.070 0.141 -0.032 0.027 0.096 -0.015 0.166 3 720021 6 0.157 -0.024 0.036 0.079 0.138 0.220 0.206 4 720022 6 0.279 0.195 0.110 0.085 0.061 0.170 0.133 5 720031 6 0.037 0.105 -0.007 0.007 -0.053 0.061 0.105 6 720032 6 0.056 -0.007 -0.079 0.023 0.200 0.012 0.112 7 720041 6 0.322 0.257 0.234 0.162 0.140 -0.121 0.019 8 720042 6 0.092 0.098 0.095 0.120 0.158 -0.038 0.023 9 720051 6 0.064 0.257 -0.055 0.046 0.005 -0.020 0.006 10 720052 6 0.049 0.193 -0.066 0.020 -0.021 -0.067 -0.056 11 720061 6 0.116 0.284 -0.153 0.218 0.007 0.068 -0.068 12 720062 6 0.074 0.063 -0.131 0.152 0.052 -0.071 0.128 13 720071 6 0.049 0.169 -0.050 0.024 0.011 -0.014 0.134 14 720072 6 0.075 0.121 -0.163 0.080 0.107 0.022 0.119 15 720081 6 0.099 0.042 0.015 -0.037 -0.017 0.024 0.200 16 720082 6 0.092 0.064 -0.105 -0.094 -0.073 -0.089 -0.011 17 720101 6 0.109 0.031 -0.136 -0.030 0.015 0.114 0.177 18 720102 6 0.077 0.077 -0.024 0.032 0.139 0.047 0.179 19 720111 6 0.114 0.005 -0.082 -0.059 -0.055 -0.136 0.099 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 720112 6 0.115 -0.114 -0.155 -0.029 -0.076 0.026 0.122 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 6 0.109 0.101 -0.045 0.048 0.051 0.015 0.098 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.073 0.103 0.104 0.081 0.089 0.092 0.084 MEDIAN 6 0.092 0.087 -0.060 0.029 0.034 0.017 0.120 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.049 0.145 0.137 0.114 0.158 0.117 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 6 0.037 -0.114 -0.163 -0.094 -0.076 -0.136 -0.068 LOWER HINGE 6 0.067 0.036 -0.133 -0.011 -0.019 -0.052 0.021 UPPER HINGE 6 0.115 0.181 0.004 0.103 0.139 0.065 0.171 MAXIMUM VALUE 6 0.322 0.284 0.234 0.218 0.200 0.220 0.206 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 720011 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.087 -0.247 3.778 0.095 0.023 2 720012 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.086 -0.319 3.613 0.093 0.017 3 720021 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.082 -0.485 3.151 0.091 0.006 4 720022 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.100 -0.241 3.288 0.110 0.018 5 720031 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.080 -0.413 3.361 0.090 0.008 6 720032 1826 1983 158 1.000 0.068 -0.877 4.752 0.073 -0.002 7 720041 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.089 -0.429 3.217 0.097 0.000 8 720042 1777 1983 207 1.000 0.088 -0.270 3.232 0.097 0.001 9 720051 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.098 -0.503 3.136 0.107 -0.001 10 720052 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.098 -0.280 2.882 0.113 -0.002 11 720061 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.076 -0.469 3.481 0.087 -0.001 12 720062 1871 1983 113 1.000 0.076 -0.906 3.959 0.085 0.001 13 720071 1851 1983 133 1.000 0.091 -1.057 4.851 0.100 0.000 14 720072 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.105 -0.421 3.986 0.112 0.012 15 720081 1896 1983 88 1.000 0.087 -1.051 4.931 0.097 0.043 16 720082 1892 1983 92 1.000 0.080 -1.488 7.073 0.082 -0.007 17 720101 1904 1983 80 1.000 0.076 -1.161 4.465 0.083 0.032 18 720102 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.078 -0.739 4.885 0.082 0.016 19 720111 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.085 -0.923 5.237 0.091 0.026 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 720112 1890 1983 94 1.000 0.087 -0.789 3.412 0.097 0.029 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 148 1.000 0.086 -0.653 4.034 0.094 0.011 STANDARD DEVIATION 46 0.000 0.009 0.360 1.020 0.011 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 144 1.000 0.086 -0.494 3.696 0.094 0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 74 0.000 0.011 0.549 1.541 0.012 0.020 MINIMUM VALUE 80 1.000 0.068 -1.488 2.882 0.073 -0.007 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 103 1.000 0.079 -0.915 3.260 0.086 0.000 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.090 -0.366 4.801 0.098 0.020 MAXIMUM VALUE 226 1.000 0.105 -0.241 7.073 0.113 0.043 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.489 0.145 0.011 0.002 2.371 0.172 0.869 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.172 SERIES 720032 AND 720101 80 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.869 SERIES 720111 AND 720112 94 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 53.38 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 6. 21. 28. 91. 105. 190. RBAR 0.787 0.512 0.515 0.554 0.445 0.413 SDEV 0.059 0.167 0.120 0.158 0.169 0.169 SERR 0.024 0.036 0.023 0.017 0.016 0.012 EPS 0.956 0.909 0.933 0.953 0.939 0.934 NSS 5.9 9.5 13.1 16.3 19.1 20.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1758 1983 226 1.001 0.068 -0.770 4.641 0.076 -0.120 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.157 -0.053 0.106 44 182 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.36 1.01 1.09 1.46 5.17 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.120 -0.136 -0.073 0.059 0.017 0.065 -0.076 0.080 0.016 -0.087 PACF -0.120 -0.153 -0.115 0.011 -0.001 0.074 -0.048 0.089 0.034 -0.075 95% C.L. 0.133 0.135 0.137 0.138 0.138 0.139 0.139 0.140 0.141 0.141 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.051 -0.156 -0.170 -0.116 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 -0.006 -0.001 0.002 -0.003 0.017 -0.029 0.089 0.017 -0.111 PACF 0.003 -0.006 -0.001 0.002 -0.003 0.017 -0.029 0.089 0.016 -0.111 95% C.L. 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.134 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.001 0.003 -0.006 -0.001 0.002 -0.003 0.017 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1758 1983 226 1.001 0.068 -0.833 4.443 0.073 0.020 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.020 -0.101 0.027 0.119 0.071 0.171 -0.058 0.062 0.032 -0.044 PACF 0.020 -0.102 0.032 0.109 0.074 0.195 -0.057 0.089 -0.011 -0.078 95% C.L. 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.135 0.136 0.137 0.141 0.141 0.142 0.142 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.26 MINUTES