RUN: MT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: MT106E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: MT106E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 749 1 Lost Trail Pass WIDTH_EARLY PCEN - 749 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2130 4542-11357 1785 1983 749 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 749011 1808 1951 144 1.049 0.321 0.379 2.388 0.174 0.756 2 749012 1803 1983 181 1.105 0.404 1.110 3.906 0.168 0.821 3 749021 1870 1983 114 1.344 0.306 -0.357 2.959 0.193 0.486 4 749022 1868 1980 113 1.192 0.309 0.446 3.479 0.198 0.503 5 749031 1803 1983 181 1.239 0.466 0.720 3.127 0.192 0.749 6 749032 1804 1983 180 1.092 0.484 1.751 6.142 0.170 0.882 7 749041 1794 1983 190 0.992 0.540 1.737 5.989 0.200 0.870 8 749042 1839 1983 145 1.191 0.340 0.527 2.999 0.215 0.594 9 749051 1785 1983 199 0.997 0.655 0.850 2.497 0.215 0.911 10 749052 1803 1983 181 1.009 0.443 0.868 3.416 0.222 0.776 11 749061 1809 1983 175 1.230 0.535 0.895 3.970 0.159 0.894 12 749062 1800 1983 184 1.128 0.508 0.848 3.387 0.171 0.873 13 749071 1806 1983 178 1.316 0.630 0.679 2.685 0.187 0.882 14 749072 1795 1983 189 1.250 0.715 0.996 2.927 0.189 0.925 15 749081 1785 1983 199 1.497 1.183 1.477 4.547 0.223 0.935 16 749082 1816 1983 168 1.102 0.838 1.380 4.070 0.285 0.880 17 749091 1811 1983 173 1.238 0.585 0.219 1.925 0.250 0.757 18 749092 1816 1983 168 0.940 0.552 1.024 3.254 0.242 0.828 19 749101 1812 1983 172 1.403 0.415 0.310 2.517 0.179 0.712 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 749102 1806 1983 178 1.413 0.550 0.752 3.593 0.165 0.861 21 749111 1827 1983 157 1.603 0.497 0.213 2.646 0.159 0.754 22 749112 1819 1983 165 1.352 0.486 0.739 2.798 0.156 0.829 23 749121 1804 1983 180 1.855 0.908 0.549 2.302 0.180 0.892 24 749122 1785 1983 199 1.668 0.891 0.570 2.683 0.208 0.886 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1785 TO 1983 199 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.259 0.565 0.778 3.342 0.196 0.802 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.230 0.214 0.491 1.046 0.032 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.234 0.522 0.746 3.063 0.191 0.845 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.281 0.214 0.524 1.085 0.045 0.129 MINIMUM VALUE 113 0.940 0.306 -0.357 1.925 0.156 0.486 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 166 1.097 0.429 0.486 2.665 0.170 0.755 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 182 1.378 0.642 1.010 3.750 0.215 0.884 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 1.855 1.183 1.751 6.142 0.285 0.935 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.645 0.215 0.013 -1.312 4.643 -0.088 0.953 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.088 SERIES 749021 AND 749061 114 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.953 SERIES 749121 AND 749122 180 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 3. 136. 231. 231. 276. 253. RBAR 0.521 0.595 0.581 0.639 0.366 0.487 SDEV 0.053 0.139 0.208 0.116 0.236 0.239 SERR 0.031 0.012 0.014 0.008 0.014 0.015 EPS 0.933 0.969 0.969 0.977 0.933 0.957 NSS 12.9 21.2 22.8 23.8 24.0 23.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1983 199 1.380 0.613 0.936 2.970 0.143 0.915 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.651 0.253 0.103 37 162 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.07 0.18 1.00 1.04 1.22 7.80 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.65 0.87 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 178. 16. 113. 166. 182. 199. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.910 0.891 0.874 0.855 0.845 0.823 0.799 0.784 0.762 0.733 PACF 0.910 0.365 0.184 0.072 0.094 -0.018 -0.051 0.009 -0.025 -0.087 95% C.L. 0.142 0.231 0.292 0.341 0.381 0.417 0.449 0.476 0.502 0.524 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.888 0.345 0.257 0.141 0.093 0.139 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 749011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00443210 1.36986887 2 749012 1 1.14350188 0.00750533 0.00000000 0.48164663 3 749021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00410822 1.58043313 4 749022 1 0.76559472 0.10403579 0.00000000 1.13050735 5 749031 1 1.52588403 0.01198774 0.00000000 0.62005830 6 749032 1 1.79463530 0.03226891 0.00000000 0.78847265 7 749041 1 2.28827596 0.04147899 0.00000000 0.70742542 8 749042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00227220 1.02509487 9 749051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00943939 1.94082379 10 749052 1 1.43601239 0.01388185 0.00000000 0.48783323 11 749061 1 1.91181660 0.04655454 0.00000000 1.00059891 12 749062 1 1.76551688 0.03505255 0.00000000 0.85972559 13 749071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01035701 2.24273849 14 749072 1 2.56387115 0.01022033 0.00000000 0.12035224 15 749081 1 4.17476892 0.01560487 0.00000000 0.22341663 16 749082 1 3.15573788 0.02549375 0.00000000 0.38418549 17 749091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00894199 2.01610374 18 749092 1 1.97998965 0.01513511 0.00000000 0.22812240 19 749101 1 1.13960409 0.02082036 0.00000000 1.09724128 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 749102 1 1.70702481 0.02102818 0.00000000 0.97223741 21 749111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00620821 2.09325075 22 749112 1 1.53207111 0.01339052 0.00000000 0.73927081 23 749121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01573051 3.27838850 24 749122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01375037 3.04327846 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 749011 1808 1951 144 0.999 0.236 -0.217 2.866 0.173 0.593 2 749012 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.272 0.428 3.317 0.167 0.689 3 749021 1870 1983 114 0.999 0.213 0.163 3.426 0.191 0.402 4 749022 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.240 0.648 4.548 0.196 0.419 5 749031 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.222 -0.426 3.275 0.191 0.382 6 749032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.206 0.085 2.864 0.169 0.484 7 749041 1794 1983 190 0.999 0.266 0.220 2.759 0.199 0.567 8 749042 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.272 0.414 2.907 0.213 0.521 9 749051 1785 1983 199 1.222 0.962 3.167 13.804 0.216 0.866 10 749052 1803 1983 181 0.999 0.260 -0.077 2.980 0.221 0.452 11 749061 1809 1983 175 0.999 0.323 0.404 2.878 0.158 0.826 12 749062 1800 1983 184 0.999 0.319 0.551 3.082 0.170 0.774 13 749071 1806 1983 178 1.012 0.266 0.397 3.329 0.187 0.636 14 749072 1795 1983 189 1.008 0.287 0.457 3.237 0.189 0.631 15 749081 1785 1983 199 1.015 0.312 0.678 4.668 0.223 0.564 16 749082 1816 1983 168 1.001 0.314 0.177 3.255 0.284 0.331 17 749091 1811 1983 173 0.996 0.304 0.001 2.522 0.248 0.503 18 749092 1816 1983 168 1.002 0.258 0.378 3.324 0.240 0.360 19 749101 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.228 0.307 3.156 0.179 0.543 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 749102 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.259 0.017 2.866 0.164 0.697 21 749111 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.262 0.268 3.039 0.158 0.682 22 749112 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.226 0.126 2.796 0.155 0.615 23 749121 1804 1983 180 1.022 0.257 0.592 4.250 0.178 0.579 24 749122 1785 1983 199 1.030 0.298 0.548 4.189 0.208 0.546 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.013 0.294 0.388 3.722 0.195 0.569 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.045 0.146 0.653 2.221 0.032 0.142 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.264 0.343 3.197 0.190 0.565 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.006 0.063 0.397 0.506 0.046 0.191 MINIMUM VALUE 113 0.996 0.206 -0.426 2.522 0.155 0.331 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 166 0.999 0.238 0.106 2.872 0.169 0.468 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 182 1.005 0.301 0.503 3.378 0.215 0.659 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 1.222 0.962 3.167 13.804 0.284 0.866 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 749011 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 749012 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 749021 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 749022 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 749031 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 749032 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 749041 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 749042 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 749051 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 749052 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 749061 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 749062 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 749071 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 749072 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 749081 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 749082 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 749091 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 749092 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 749101 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 749102 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 749111 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 749112 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 749121 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 749122 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 749011 1808 1951 144 0.996 0.212 -0.238 3.130 0.174 0.497 2 749012 1803 1983 181 0.996 0.253 0.398 3.341 0.167 0.641 3 749021 1870 1983 114 0.998 0.186 -0.007 3.343 0.191 0.246 4 749022 1868 1980 113 0.998 0.213 0.342 3.843 0.197 0.286 5 749031 1803 1983 181 0.999 0.214 -0.487 3.348 0.191 0.346 6 749032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.201 -0.054 2.802 0.168 0.448 7 749041 1794 1983 190 0.996 0.226 0.300 3.064 0.199 0.394 8 749042 1839 1983 145 0.995 0.238 0.092 2.764 0.213 0.398 9 749051 1785 1983 199 0.985 0.264 0.321 3.168 0.215 0.499 10 749052 1803 1983 181 0.996 0.236 -0.006 2.977 0.221 0.339 11 749061 1809 1983 175 0.989 0.231 0.507 3.373 0.158 0.640 12 749062 1800 1983 184 0.990 0.233 0.806 4.032 0.170 0.565 13 749071 1806 1983 178 0.999 0.240 -0.123 2.594 0.187 0.575 14 749072 1795 1983 189 0.996 0.241 0.096 2.659 0.188 0.512 15 749081 1785 1983 199 0.998 0.275 0.009 2.896 0.222 0.481 16 749082 1816 1983 168 0.999 0.311 0.166 3.300 0.283 0.317 17 749091 1811 1983 173 0.996 0.282 -0.141 2.575 0.248 0.438 18 749092 1816 1983 168 0.997 0.238 0.207 3.030 0.240 0.262 19 749101 1812 1983 172 0.997 0.205 0.098 2.961 0.178 0.452 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 749102 1806 1983 178 0.994 0.221 -0.104 3.149 0.164 0.598 21 749111 1827 1983 157 0.996 0.234 0.112 3.102 0.158 0.618 22 749112 1819 1983 165 0.998 0.210 -0.068 2.886 0.154 0.558 23 749121 1804 1983 180 0.998 0.212 -0.108 3.273 0.178 0.423 24 749122 1785 1983 199 0.998 0.245 -0.127 3.072 0.208 0.422 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 0.996 0.234 0.083 3.112 0.195 0.456 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.003 0.028 0.271 0.349 0.032 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 0.997 0.234 0.051 3.087 0.189 0.450 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.003 0.030 0.360 0.430 0.045 0.191 MINIMUM VALUE 113 0.985 0.186 -0.487 2.575 0.154 0.246 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 166 0.996 0.213 -0.106 2.891 0.169 0.370 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 182 0.998 0.243 0.254 3.321 0.214 0.561 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 1.000 0.311 0.806 4.032 0.283 0.641 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.500 0.102 0.006 -0.028 4.112 0.131 0.810 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.131 SERIES 749061 AND 749122 175 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.810 SERIES 749081 AND 749082 168 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 3. 136. 231. 231. 276. 253. RBAR 0.553 0.533 0.560 0.500 0.457 0.561 SDEV 0.025 0.142 0.139 0.131 0.165 0.149 SERR 0.015 0.012 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.941 0.960 0.967 0.960 0.953 0.968 NSS 12.9 21.2 22.8 23.8 24.0 23.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1983 199 0.987 0.172 -0.214 2.772 0.148 0.427 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.314 0.088 0.072 58 141 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.46 1.00 1.03 1.49 4.03 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.71 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.425 0.301 0.269 0.211 0.191 0.175 0.019 0.009 0.041 -0.014 PACF 0.425 0.148 0.121 0.045 0.054 0.042 -0.144 -0.029 0.035 -0.041 95% C.L. 0.142 0.165 0.176 0.184 0.189 0.193 0.196 0.196 0.196 0.196 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.224 0.341 0.117 0.127 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.384 0.246 0.230 0.205 0.188 0.171 0.002 -0.004 0.046 -0.006 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.384 2 0.339 0.116 3 0.325 0.075 0.122 4 0.315 0.069 0.097 0.078 5 0.310 0.063 0.092 0.057 0.065 6 0.307 0.060 0.088 0.054 0.050 0.048 7 0.314 0.067 0.096 0.068 0.059 0.094 -0.150 8 0.309 0.071 0.098 0.070 0.063 0.096 -0.139 -0.033 9 0.311 0.076 0.094 0.067 0.060 0.092 -0.142 -0.045 0.037 10 0.312 0.074 0.089 0.071 0.062 0.095 -0.138 -0.042 0.049 -0.040 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1570.88 1541.22 1540.53 1539.55 1540.34 1541.49 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1543.04 1540.51 1542.29 1544.02 1545.70 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.325 0.075 0.122 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 17.11 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 120.64 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.325 0.180 0.205 0.120 0.076 0.059 0.039 0.026 0.019 0.0128 0.009 0.006 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 749011 3 0.302 0.366 0.181 0.100 2 749012 3 0.432 0.574 0.097 0.021 3 749021 3 0.063 0.254 -0.026 0.012 4 749022 3 0.118 0.313 -0.099 0.112 5 749031 3 0.151 0.318 0.011 0.161 6 749032 3 0.232 0.431 -0.010 0.113 7 749041 3 0.174 0.344 0.114 0.022 8 749042 3 0.198 0.360 0.070 0.063 9 749051 3 0.295 0.406 0.112 0.119 10 749052 3 0.157 0.273 0.082 0.170 11 749061 3 0.448 0.525 0.067 0.153 12 749062 3 0.410 0.394 0.120 0.225 13 749071 3 0.348 0.492 0.128 0.025 14 749072 3 0.301 0.412 0.181 0.033 15 749081 3 0.265 0.416 0.042 0.155 16 749082 3 0.130 0.288 0.017 0.164 17 749091 3 0.257 0.358 0.233 -0.055 18 749092 3 0.088 0.258 0.025 -0.002 19 749101 3 0.226 0.404 0.047 0.113 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 749102 3 0.394 0.478 0.094 0.139 21 749111 3 0.416 0.480 0.143 0.100 22 749112 3 0.330 0.500 0.041 0.102 23 749121 3 0.221 0.330 0.201 0.029 24 749122 3 0.251 0.294 0.132 0.213 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.259 0.386 0.083 0.095 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.112 0.089 0.078 0.072 MEDIAN 3 0.254 0.380 0.088 0.107 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.174 0.138 0.097 0.127 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.063 0.254 -0.099 -0.055 LOWER HINGE 3 0.165 0.316 0.033 0.027 UPPER HINGE 3 0.339 0.454 0.130 0.154 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.448 0.574 0.233 0.225 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 749011 1808 1951 144 1.000 0.179 -0.047 3.842 0.205 -0.013 2 749012 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.191 0.397 4.674 0.216 -0.009 3 749021 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.180 -0.242 3.161 0.211 0.001 4 749022 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.202 0.291 3.558 0.227 -0.014 5 749031 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.197 -0.658 4.601 0.215 -0.003 6 749032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.177 -0.360 3.242 0.203 -0.016 7 749041 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.206 0.174 3.285 0.231 -0.002 8 749042 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.216 0.058 3.134 0.250 -0.014 9 749051 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.223 0.217 3.338 0.252 -0.009 10 749052 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.216 0.036 3.207 0.241 0.003 11 749061 1809 1983 175 1.000 0.172 0.031 3.228 0.193 -0.012 12 749062 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.182 0.829 4.246 0.199 -0.039 13 749071 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.194 -0.271 2.903 0.224 0.004 14 749072 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.201 -0.370 3.979 0.230 -0.005 15 749081 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.235 -0.518 4.379 0.268 0.006 16 749082 1816 1983 168 1.001 0.285 -0.264 3.898 0.323 0.006 17 749091 1811 1983 173 1.000 0.247 -0.272 3.424 0.283 0.009 18 749092 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.230 0.093 2.996 0.266 0.002 19 749101 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.180 -0.148 3.115 0.214 0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 749102 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.173 -0.147 3.892 0.203 -0.016 21 749111 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.180 -0.020 3.452 0.193 0.009 22 749112 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.172 -0.165 2.853 0.181 0.010 23 749121 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.187 -0.404 4.209 0.213 0.007 24 749122 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.212 -0.077 3.725 0.235 -0.011 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.202 -0.077 3.598 0.228 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.000 0.028 0.321 0.537 0.033 0.012 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.196 -0.112 3.438 0.220 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.036 0.347 0.754 0.041 0.018 MINIMUM VALUE 113 1.000 0.172 -0.658 2.853 0.181 -0.039 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 166 1.000 0.180 -0.272 3.184 0.204 -0.012 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.216 0.075 3.938 0.246 0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 1.001 0.285 0.829 4.674 0.323 0.010 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.546 0.077 0.005 0.441 3.775 0.351 0.866 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.351 SERIES 749062 AND 749091 173 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.866 SERIES 749081 AND 749082 168 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 3. 136. 231. 231. 276. 253. RBAR 0.437 0.558 0.590 0.540 0.542 0.587 SDEV 0.018 0.114 0.117 0.100 0.110 0.102 SERR 0.011 0.010 0.008 0.007 0.007 0.006 EPS 0.909 0.964 0.970 0.966 0.966 0.971 NSS 12.9 21.2 22.8 23.8 24.0 23.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1983 199 0.998 0.148 -0.368 3.268 0.174 -0.057 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.233 0.067 0.060 72 127 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.60 1.00 1.05 1.65 68.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.73 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.057 -0.016 -0.021 0.040 0.062 0.108 -0.106 -0.063 0.040 -0.012 PACF -0.057 -0.019 -0.023 0.037 0.066 0.118 -0.090 -0.072 0.028 -0.027 95% C.L. 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.143 0.143 0.145 0.146 0.147 0.147 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.003 0.007 0.040 0.066 0.107 -0.100 -0.063 0.036 -0.015 PACF 0.001 0.003 0.007 0.040 0.066 0.108 -0.102 -0.068 0.031 -0.026 95% C.L. 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.143 0.144 0.146 0.146 0.146 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.002 0.001 0.003 0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1983 199 0.999 0.165 -0.219 2.781 0.143 0.406 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.404 0.273 0.268 0.194 0.174 0.159 -0.007 -0.021 0.025 -0.032 PACF 0.404 0.131 0.145 0.031 0.050 0.037 -0.155 -0.042 0.034 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.142 0.163 0.172 0.180 0.185 0.188 0.190 0.190 0.191 0.191 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.205 0.330 0.089 0.152 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.16 MINUTES