RUN: MT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: MT106I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: MT106I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 749 1 Lost Trail Pass DENSITY_EARLY PCEN - 749 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2130 4542-11357 1785 1983 749 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 17 749091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1853 1859 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 749011 1808 1951 144 3.149 0.227 0.090 3.308 0.051 0.563 2 749012 1803 1983 181 3.254 0.319 2.187 10.607 0.054 0.655 3 749021 1870 1983 114 2.775 0.209 0.701 3.842 0.064 0.348 4 749022 1868 1980 113 3.232 0.277 0.804 3.531 0.057 0.577 5 749031 1803 1983 181 3.086 0.248 0.478 4.043 0.060 0.448 6 749032 1804 1983 180 3.155 0.275 3.140 19.009 0.055 0.608 7 749041 1794 1983 190 2.910 0.208 0.635 3.851 0.059 0.381 8 749042 1839 1983 145 2.974 0.270 1.352 5.554 0.063 0.538 9 749051 1785 1983 199 3.440 0.296 1.148 6.373 0.048 0.692 10 749052 1803 1983 181 3.404 0.245 0.426 3.565 0.051 0.570 11 749061 1809 1983 175 2.777 0.174 0.125 3.396 0.042 0.626 12 749062 1800 1983 184 2.932 0.212 0.062 2.920 0.044 0.674 13 749071 1806 1983 178 3.152 0.223 2.167 15.889 0.056 0.299 14 749072 1795 1983 189 3.192 0.195 0.089 2.890 0.045 0.556 15 749081 1785 1983 199 2.821 0.327 -0.652 2.812 0.057 0.793 16 749082 1816 1983 168 2.966 0.186 0.018 4.893 0.060 0.203 17 749091 1811 1983 173 3.314 0.277 0.607 3.823 0.068 0.392 18 749092 1816 1983 168 3.289 0.202 0.046 2.534 0.060 0.181 19 749101 1812 1983 172 3.153 0.205 0.581 3.490 0.048 0.535 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 749102 1806 1983 178 3.112 0.181 0.399 3.051 0.044 0.496 21 749111 1827 1983 157 2.845 0.159 0.157 3.348 0.051 0.316 22 749112 1819 1983 165 2.848 0.228 -0.838 6.339 0.047 0.646 23 749121 1804 1983 180 2.993 0.158 0.229 3.207 0.050 0.280 24 749122 1785 1983 199 2.971 0.218 1.001 5.145 0.050 0.542 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1785 TO 1983 199 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 3.073 0.230 0.623 5.309 0.053 0.497 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.195 0.047 0.890 4.140 0.007 0.163 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 3.099 0.220 0.452 3.694 0.053 0.540 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.290 0.074 0.813 2.092 0.012 0.253 MINIMUM VALUE 113 2.775 0.158 -0.838 2.534 0.042 0.181 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 2.921 0.198 0.089 3.258 0.048 0.365 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 182 3.212 0.273 0.902 5.350 0.059 0.617 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 3.440 0.327 3.140 19.009 0.068 0.793 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.283 0.151 0.009 -0.238 3.015 -0.150 0.670 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.150 SERIES 749042 AND 749081 145 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.670 SERIES 749021 AND 749022 111 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 3. 136. 231. 231. 276. 253. RBAR 0.341 0.229 0.232 0.355 0.503 0.461 SDEV 0.355 0.263 0.218 0.159 0.141 0.153 SERR 0.205 0.023 0.014 0.010 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.870 0.863 0.873 0.929 0.960 0.953 NSS 12.9 21.2 22.8 23.8 24.0 23.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1983 199 3.085 0.150 1.783 9.181 0.038 0.432 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.570 0.417 -1.006 63 136 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.58 1.01 1.07 1.65 11.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.63 0.89 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 178. 16. 113. 166. 182. 199. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.430 0.235 0.211 0.167 0.133 0.162 0.151 0.044 0.045 0.071 PACF 0.430 0.061 0.111 0.040 0.031 0.085 0.038 -0.080 0.014 0.030 95% C.L. 0.142 0.166 0.172 0.178 0.181 0.183 0.186 0.188 0.188 0.188 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.240 0.385 0.057 0.150 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 749011 1 0.23562819 0.01834181 0.00000000 3.06665778 2 749012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003412 3.25098348 3 749021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027298 2.75904059 4 749022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00148613 3.31656766 5 749031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00043733 3.04661131 6 749032 1 2.16970587 0.26944190 0.00000000 3.11646461 7 749041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047697 2.86487055 8 749042 1 0.69534880 0.04388312 0.00000000 2.86756372 9 749051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00108174 3.33157468 10 749052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00214970 3.20874214 11 749061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00078766 2.84622860 12 749062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00184402 2.76181936 13 749071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042212 3.19002676 14 749072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00165376 3.03463864 15 749081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025447 2.79530692 16 749082 1 0.16071914 0.01147789 0.00000000 2.89496040 17 749091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00266589 3.06985998 18 749092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032619 3.31655121 19 749101 1 0.16741568 0.04125285 0.00000000 3.12940836 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 749102 1 0.54690689 0.07375982 0.00000000 3.07160401 21 749111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00056196 2.80070066 22 749112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00228178 2.65812707 23 749121 1 0.28754917 0.04419819 0.00000000 2.95805097 24 749122 1 0.96389568 0.12071060 0.00000000 2.93365407 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 749011 1808 1951 144 1.000 0.070 0.270 3.586 0.051 0.522 2 749012 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.098 2.198 10.654 0.054 0.651 3 749021 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.075 0.644 3.689 0.064 0.346 4 749022 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.084 0.673 3.111 0.057 0.552 5 749031 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.080 0.499 4.293 0.060 0.444 6 749032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.062 0.728 3.855 0.055 0.352 7 749041 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.071 0.648 3.818 0.058 0.368 8 749042 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.073 0.905 4.586 0.062 0.311 9 749051 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.085 1.791 9.297 0.047 0.678 10 749052 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.064 0.766 5.692 0.050 0.473 11 749061 1809 1983 175 1.000 0.061 0.162 3.445 0.042 0.594 12 749062 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.065 0.588 3.527 0.044 0.574 13 749071 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.070 1.974 14.500 0.056 0.288 14 749072 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.054 0.348 2.917 0.045 0.438 15 749081 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.116 -0.606 2.743 0.057 0.789 16 749082 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.062 0.219 5.300 0.059 0.163 17 749091 1811 1983 173 1.000 0.073 0.712 4.492 0.066 0.245 18 749092 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.061 0.046 2.550 0.060 0.173 19 749101 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.064 0.610 3.681 0.047 0.510 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 749102 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.050 0.261 3.314 0.044 0.322 21 749111 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.055 0.161 3.299 0.051 0.299 22 749112 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.072 -0.314 4.613 0.047 0.584 23 749121 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.049 0.279 3.232 0.050 0.148 24 749122 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.060 0.458 3.763 0.049 0.370 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.070 0.584 4.748 0.053 0.425 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.000 0.015 0.645 2.820 0.007 0.172 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.067 0.544 3.726 0.052 0.404 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.013 0.480 1.293 0.011 0.258 MINIMUM VALUE 113 1.000 0.049 -0.606 2.550 0.042 0.148 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 166 1.000 0.061 0.240 3.306 0.047 0.305 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.074 0.720 4.600 0.059 0.563 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 1.000 0.116 2.198 14.500 0.066 0.789 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 749011 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 749012 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 749021 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 749022 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 749031 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 749032 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 749041 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 749042 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 749051 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 749052 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 749061 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 749062 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 749071 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 749072 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 749081 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 749082 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 749091 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 749092 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 749101 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 749102 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 749111 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 749112 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 749121 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 749122 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 749011 1808 1951 144 1.000 0.060 0.180 3.908 0.051 0.368 2 749012 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.095 2.243 11.551 0.054 0.645 3 749021 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.067 0.531 3.287 0.064 0.185 4 749022 1868 1980 113 0.999 0.067 0.824 3.706 0.057 0.321 5 749031 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.077 0.542 4.442 0.060 0.410 6 749032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.059 0.915 5.103 0.055 0.282 7 749041 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.069 0.648 3.825 0.058 0.322 8 749042 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.072 0.939 4.641 0.062 0.300 9 749051 1785 1983 199 0.999 0.069 1.046 7.054 0.047 0.548 10 749052 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.056 0.900 6.259 0.050 0.326 11 749061 1809 1983 175 1.000 0.047 0.405 4.318 0.041 0.321 12 749062 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.057 0.672 4.138 0.044 0.464 13 749071 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.069 2.114 15.718 0.056 0.272 14 749072 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.052 0.348 3.068 0.045 0.383 15 749081 1785 1983 199 0.999 0.097 -0.301 2.671 0.057 0.702 16 749082 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.061 0.382 5.899 0.059 0.134 17 749091 1811 1983 173 1.000 0.070 0.720 4.521 0.066 0.169 18 749092 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.058 0.122 2.605 0.060 0.069 19 749101 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.059 0.727 3.998 0.047 0.429 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 749102 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.048 0.371 3.299 0.044 0.253 21 749111 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.054 0.144 3.290 0.051 0.271 22 749112 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.063 0.427 4.076 0.047 0.488 23 749121 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.048 0.351 3.357 0.050 0.102 24 749122 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.057 0.361 4.029 0.049 0.303 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.064 0.650 4.948 0.053 0.336 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.000 0.013 0.564 2.946 0.007 0.157 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.060 0.536 4.052 0.052 0.321 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.012 0.506 1.544 0.011 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 113 0.999 0.047 -0.301 2.605 0.041 0.069 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 166 1.000 0.057 0.356 3.328 0.047 0.262 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.069 0.862 4.872 0.059 0.419 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 1.000 0.097 2.243 15.718 0.066 0.702 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.364 0.119 0.007 -0.590 3.945 -0.140 0.654 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.140 SERIES 749081 AND 749112 165 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.654 SERIES 749021 AND 749022 111 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 3. 136. 231. 231. 276. 253. RBAR -0.005 0.273 0.251 0.377 0.535 0.492 SDEV 0.223 0.224 0.198 0.146 0.125 0.130 SERR 0.129 0.019 0.013 0.010 0.008 0.008 EPS -0.075 0.888 0.885 0.935 0.965 0.958 NSS 12.9 21.2 22.8 23.8 24.0 23.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1983 199 0.999 0.039 0.386 3.001 0.037 0.225 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.216 0.099 -0.050 98 101 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.97 1.00 1.09 2.05 6.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.08 0.77 0.89 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.224 0.023 0.020 0.007 -0.032 0.000 0.031 -0.013 0.020 0.022 PACF 0.224 -0.028 0.022 -0.002 -0.035 0.016 0.029 -0.026 0.031 0.008 95% C.L. 0.142 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.149 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.052 0.227 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.191 0.006 0.004 -0.019 -0.065 -0.050 -0.056 -0.041 0.026 -0.007 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.191 2 0.197 -0.032 3 0.197 -0.034 0.009 4 0.198 -0.034 0.013 -0.022 5 0.196 -0.034 0.011 -0.010 -0.059 6 0.195 -0.034 0.012 -0.011 -0.054 -0.028 7 0.193 -0.036 0.011 -0.010 -0.055 -0.020 -0.044 8 0.192 -0.037 0.010 -0.011 -0.055 -0.020 -0.039 -0.024 9 0.193 -0.035 0.010 -0.008 -0.055 -0.021 -0.038 -0.031 0.037 10 0.194 -0.036 0.010 -0.009 -0.056 -0.021 -0.038 -0.032 0.042 -0.025 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 977.93 972.53 974.33 976.31 978.22 979.52 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 981.36 982.97 984.86 986.58 988.46 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.191 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.65 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.79 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.191 0.036 0.007 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 749011 1 0.153 0.369 2 749012 1 0.450 0.670 3 749021 1 0.064 0.185 4 749022 1 0.115 0.323 5 749031 1 0.194 0.427 6 749032 1 0.086 0.291 7 749041 1 0.107 0.324 8 749042 1 0.095 0.301 9 749051 1 0.326 0.559 10 749052 1 0.111 0.327 11 749061 1 0.121 0.330 12 749062 1 0.224 0.468 13 749071 1 0.076 0.273 14 749072 1 0.149 0.385 15 749081 1 0.537 0.704 16 749082 1 0.019 0.135 17 749091 1 0.029 0.171 18 749092 1 0.006 0.069 19 749101 1 0.213 0.438 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 749102 1 0.073 0.254 21 749111 1 0.100 0.272 22 749112 1 0.280 0.502 23 749121 1 0.012 0.102 24 749122 1 0.127 0.303 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.153 0.341 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.133 0.161 MEDIAN 1 0.113 0.323 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.129 0.170 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.006 0.069 LOWER HINGE 1 0.074 0.263 UPPER HINGE 1 0.204 0.433 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.537 0.704 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 749011 1808 1951 144 1.000 0.056 0.193 4.697 0.061 -0.052 2 749012 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.069 1.024 6.269 0.070 -0.010 3 749021 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.065 0.675 3.583 0.071 -0.031 4 749022 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.063 0.823 3.764 0.067 -0.037 5 749031 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.070 0.385 4.478 0.073 -0.040 6 749032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.056 0.867 5.165 0.064 -0.002 7 749041 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.065 0.753 4.081 0.067 -0.018 8 749042 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.069 1.108 5.339 0.070 -0.019 9 749051 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.057 0.981 8.151 0.062 -0.081 10 749052 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.053 0.770 5.654 0.058 -0.020 11 749061 1809 1983 175 1.000 0.044 0.514 4.503 0.047 0.046 12 749062 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.051 0.694 5.271 0.055 -0.039 13 749071 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.067 2.451 18.468 0.064 -0.012 14 749072 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.048 0.337 3.529 0.053 -0.011 15 749081 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.069 -0.036 4.570 0.082 -0.198 16 749082 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.060 0.574 6.834 0.062 0.005 17 749091 1811 1983 173 1.000 0.069 0.849 4.785 0.071 -0.002 18 749092 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.058 0.129 2.628 0.062 0.002 19 749101 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.053 0.621 4.155 0.060 -0.068 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 749102 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.046 0.438 3.611 0.049 -0.023 21 749111 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.052 0.258 3.529 0.058 -0.046 22 749112 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.054 0.623 5.176 0.060 -0.107 23 749121 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.047 0.341 3.311 0.053 -0.005 24 749122 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.055 0.421 4.578 0.059 -0.060 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.058 0.658 5.255 0.062 -0.034 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.000 0.008 0.482 3.066 0.008 0.047 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.057 0.622 4.574 0.062 -0.022 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.013 0.473 1.618 0.010 0.042 MINIMUM VALUE 113 1.000 0.044 -0.036 2.628 0.047 -0.198 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 166 1.000 0.053 0.363 3.687 0.058 -0.049 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.066 0.836 5.305 0.068 -0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 1.000 0.070 2.451 18.468 0.082 0.046 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.408 0.087 0.005 -0.063 2.758 0.173 0.641 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.173 SERIES 749051 AND 749112 165 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.641 SERIES 749021 AND 749022 111 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 3. 136. 231. 231. 276. 253. RBAR 0.182 0.349 0.300 0.348 0.557 0.556 SDEV 0.122 0.155 0.154 0.139 0.094 0.105 SERR 0.071 0.013 0.010 0.009 0.006 0.007 EPS 0.742 0.919 0.907 0.927 0.968 0.967 NSS 12.9 21.2 22.8 23.8 24.0 23.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1983 199 0.998 0.037 0.289 3.225 0.042 -0.112 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.139 0.049 -0.009 88 111 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.70 1.00 1.12 1.82 10.57 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.09 0.82 0.88 0.97 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.112 -0.052 -0.007 0.008 -0.025 0.007 0.015 -0.045 0.034 0.005 PACF -0.112 -0.065 -0.020 0.001 -0.025 0.001 0.013 -0.043 0.026 0.007 95% C.L. 0.142 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.017 -0.113 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.008 -0.068 -0.011 0.003 -0.023 0.006 0.012 -0.040 0.031 0.017 PACF -0.008 -0.068 -0.012 -0.002 -0.025 0.006 0.009 -0.040 0.032 0.012 95% C.L. 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.143 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.005 -0.008 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1983 199 0.998 0.037 0.416 3.150 0.037 0.167 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.167 -0.039 -0.018 -0.007 -0.021 0.003 0.008 -0.029 0.029 0.029 PACF 0.167 -0.068 0.000 -0.006 -0.021 0.010 0.004 -0.032 0.042 0.014 95% C.L. 0.142 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.146 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.033 0.169 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES