RUN: MT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: MT106N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: MT106N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 749 1 Lost Trail Pass DENSITY_MINIMUM PCEN - 749 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2130 4542-11357 1785 1983 749 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 749061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1831 1835 / 1977 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 749062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1820 1824 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 749091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1854 1859 / 1927 1931 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 749092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1862 1866 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 749101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1892 1897 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 749121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1875 1879 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 749011 1808 1951 144 0.262 0.022 0.229 3.212 0.059 0.513 2 749012 1803 1983 181 0.268 0.027 1.546 7.852 0.069 0.485 3 749021 1870 1983 114 0.230 0.021 0.663 3.392 0.078 0.355 4 749022 1868 1980 113 0.269 0.026 0.639 3.128 0.071 0.494 5 749031 1803 1983 181 0.258 0.025 0.287 3.555 0.070 0.492 6 749032 1804 1983 180 0.267 0.027 2.242 15.351 0.065 0.567 7 749041 1794 1983 190 0.241 0.020 0.547 4.122 0.066 0.442 8 749042 1839 1983 145 0.239 0.023 1.299 6.031 0.079 0.426 9 749051 1785 1983 199 0.286 0.027 0.375 3.417 0.055 0.682 10 749052 1803 1983 181 0.278 0.023 0.295 3.180 0.065 0.488 11 749061 1809 1983 175 0.230 0.019 -0.116 2.253 0.049 0.707 12 749062 1800 1983 184 0.245 0.022 0.088 2.907 0.054 0.686 13 749071 1806 1983 178 0.268 0.024 1.525 13.254 0.067 0.272 14 749072 1795 1983 189 0.272 0.025 -0.376 2.531 0.053 0.717 15 749081 1785 1983 199 0.241 0.031 -0.566 2.794 0.060 0.812 16 749082 1816 1983 168 0.259 0.018 0.347 6.271 0.068 0.198 17 749091 1811 1983 173 0.285 0.031 -0.539 6.474 0.076 0.484 18 749092 1816 1983 168 0.289 0.021 -0.210 2.967 0.063 0.378 19 749101 1812 1983 172 0.269 0.020 0.406 3.000 0.059 0.476 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 749102 1806 1983 178 0.266 0.017 0.062 2.719 0.055 0.383 21 749111 1827 1983 157 0.241 0.019 -0.100 2.848 0.056 0.569 22 749112 1819 1983 165 0.241 0.026 -1.476 5.966 0.053 0.722 23 749121 1804 1983 180 0.251 0.016 -0.035 2.670 0.058 0.330 24 749122 1785 1983 199 0.248 0.016 0.563 3.909 0.047 0.506 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1785 TO 1983 199 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 170 0.258 0.023 0.321 4.742 0.062 0.508 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.018 0.004 0.783 3.317 0.009 0.154 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 176 0.261 0.023 0.291 3.302 0.062 0.490 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 18 0.028 0.007 0.709 3.121 0.013 0.221 MINIMUM VALUE 113 0.230 0.016 -1.476 2.253 0.047 0.198 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 162 0.241 0.019 -0.108 2.877 0.055 0.404 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 181 0.269 0.026 0.601 5.999 0.068 0.625 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 0.289 0.031 2.242 15.351 0.079 0.812 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.304 0.151 0.009 -0.218 2.918 -0.095 0.683 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.095 SERIES 749061 AND 749111 157 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.683 SERIES 749051 AND 749072 189 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 3. 136. 231. 231. 276. 253. RBAR 0.264 0.258 0.264 0.325 0.431 0.360 SDEV 0.446 0.238 0.212 0.172 0.161 0.184 SERR 0.257 0.020 0.014 0.011 0.010 0.012 EPS 0.822 0.880 0.891 0.920 0.948 0.930 NSS 12.9 21.2 22.8 23.8 24.0 23.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1983 199 0.258 0.014 0.493 3.473 0.043 0.451 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.439 0.287 -0.048 61 138 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.36 1.00 1.04 1.40 13.97 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.66 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 178. 16. 113. 166. 182. 199. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.449 0.292 0.253 0.249 0.255 0.253 0.229 0.238 0.217 0.111 PACF 0.449 0.114 0.109 0.105 0.102 0.086 0.049 0.076 0.035 -0.091 95% C.L. 0.142 0.168 0.178 0.185 0.192 0.198 0.205 0.210 0.215 0.220 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.259 0.363 0.077 0.089 0.118 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 749011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00001163 0.26144814 2 749012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004432 0.26419890 3 749021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006938 0.22627386 4 749022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007111 0.27299148 5 749031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016621 0.24249908 6 749032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005404 0.26216450 7 749041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009222 0.23224561 8 749042 1 0.06989162 0.09501690 0.00000000 0.23412992 9 749051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00016268 0.26956144 10 749052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017969 0.26193553 11 749061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003782 0.23260291 12 749062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019334 0.22576742 13 749071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008306 0.26104933 14 749072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030800 0.24253856 15 749081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013642 0.22721182 16 749082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002373 0.25686413 17 749091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037202 0.25101361 18 749092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009030 0.28131765 19 749101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005990 0.26372209 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 749102 1 0.04800692 0.15597130 0.00000000 0.26390779 21 749111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00018321 0.22654581 22 749112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035576 0.21138138 23 749121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000196 0.25126597 24 749122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002444 0.25003198 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 749011 1808 1951 144 1.000 0.084 0.213 3.182 0.059 0.510 2 749012 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.102 1.709 8.702 0.068 0.478 3 749021 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.090 0.579 3.143 0.078 0.349 4 749022 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.095 0.544 3.002 0.071 0.481 5 749031 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.090 0.518 4.253 0.070 0.432 6 749032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.100 2.592 17.949 0.064 0.557 7 749041 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.080 0.736 4.451 0.066 0.398 8 749042 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.084 0.797 3.828 0.079 0.254 9 749051 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.092 1.315 6.241 0.055 0.648 10 749052 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.078 0.561 3.604 0.065 0.409 11 749061 1809 1983 175 1.000 0.081 -0.087 2.331 0.049 0.689 12 749062 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.082 0.476 2.895 0.054 0.642 13 749071 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.089 2.091 17.047 0.067 0.251 14 749072 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.067 0.274 2.774 0.053 0.487 15 749081 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.127 -0.451 2.627 0.060 0.796 16 749082 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.071 0.329 6.172 0.068 0.196 17 749091 1811 1983 173 1.000 0.093 -0.665 8.112 0.077 0.387 18 749092 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.071 -0.094 2.866 0.062 0.346 19 749101 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.073 0.439 3.046 0.058 0.465 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 749102 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.061 -0.016 2.733 0.054 0.314 21 749111 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.069 -0.027 2.514 0.056 0.458 22 749112 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.088 -0.959 5.328 0.053 0.601 23 749121 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.063 -0.049 2.684 0.058 0.321 24 749122 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.064 0.402 3.634 0.047 0.500 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.083 0.468 5.130 0.062 0.457 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.000 0.015 0.815 4.185 0.009 0.148 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.083 0.421 3.393 0.061 0.461 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.020 0.696 2.930 0.013 0.187 MINIMUM VALUE 113 1.000 0.061 -0.959 2.331 0.047 0.196 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 166 1.000 0.071 -0.038 2.820 0.055 0.347 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.091 0.658 5.750 0.068 0.534 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 1.000 0.127 2.592 17.949 0.079 0.796 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 749011 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 749012 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 749021 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 749022 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 749031 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 749032 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 749041 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 749042 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 749051 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 749052 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 749061 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 749062 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 749071 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 749072 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 749081 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 749082 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 749091 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 749092 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 749101 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 749102 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 749111 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 749112 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 749121 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 749122 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 749011 1808 1951 144 1.000 0.075 0.087 3.580 0.059 0.394 2 749012 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.098 1.504 7.258 0.068 0.464 3 749021 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.077 0.571 3.164 0.078 0.133 4 749022 1868 1980 113 0.999 0.075 0.598 3.297 0.071 0.212 5 749031 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.088 0.582 4.574 0.069 0.400 6 749032 1804 1983 180 0.999 0.090 2.257 16.391 0.064 0.474 7 749041 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.076 0.569 4.342 0.066 0.337 8 749042 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.083 0.765 3.796 0.079 0.230 9 749051 1785 1983 199 0.999 0.074 0.583 4.245 0.055 0.499 10 749052 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.067 0.764 3.936 0.065 0.228 11 749061 1809 1983 175 1.000 0.054 0.103 2.666 0.049 0.302 12 749062 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.066 0.330 3.095 0.054 0.456 13 749071 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.088 2.624 22.052 0.067 0.215 14 749072 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.058 0.056 2.829 0.053 0.321 15 749081 1785 1983 199 0.998 0.106 -0.228 2.822 0.061 0.706 16 749082 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.069 0.344 6.836 0.068 0.148 17 749091 1811 1983 173 1.000 0.089 -0.595 8.502 0.077 0.330 18 749092 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.062 -0.098 2.832 0.062 0.135 19 749101 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.070 0.452 3.044 0.058 0.423 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 749102 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.058 0.082 2.636 0.054 0.245 21 749111 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.065 -0.059 2.682 0.056 0.399 22 749112 1819 1983 165 0.999 0.075 -0.046 4.048 0.053 0.487 23 749121 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.058 -0.064 2.672 0.058 0.212 24 749122 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.061 0.365 3.447 0.047 0.463 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.074 0.481 5.198 0.062 0.342 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.000 0.014 0.739 4.658 0.009 0.142 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.074 0.354 3.514 0.061 0.333 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.022 0.585 1.628 0.013 0.238 MINIMUM VALUE 113 0.998 0.054 -0.595 2.636 0.047 0.133 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 166 1.000 0.063 0.005 2.831 0.055 0.221 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.085 0.590 4.458 0.068 0.459 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 1.000 0.106 2.624 22.052 0.079 0.706 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.319 0.115 0.007 -0.360 3.835 -0.163 0.650 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.163 SERIES 749081 AND 749112 165 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.650 SERIES 749071 AND 749101 172 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 3. 136. 231. 231. 276. 253. RBAR 0.108 0.277 0.262 0.326 0.458 0.393 SDEV 0.511 0.214 0.186 0.161 0.148 0.154 SERR 0.295 0.018 0.012 0.011 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.609 0.890 0.890 0.920 0.953 0.939 NSS 12.9 21.2 22.8 23.8 24.0 23.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1983 199 1.001 0.047 0.581 3.298 0.043 0.299 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.088 0.042 0.016 82 117 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.47 1.00 1.07 1.54 12.26 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.51 0.89 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.297 0.149 0.123 0.089 0.108 0.093 0.047 0.074 0.084 -0.025 PACF 0.297 0.066 0.068 0.031 0.067 0.035 -0.008 0.045 0.040 -0.085 95% C.L. 0.142 0.154 0.157 0.159 0.160 0.161 0.162 0.162 0.163 0.164 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.099 0.306 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.234 0.104 0.112 0.056 0.031 -0.023 -0.046 0.039 0.046 -0.052 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.234 2 0.222 0.052 3 0.218 0.034 0.082 4 0.217 0.034 0.080 0.009 5 0.217 0.033 0.080 0.008 0.005 6 0.217 0.034 0.083 0.010 0.014 -0.045 7 0.215 0.034 0.084 0.013 0.016 -0.036 -0.042 8 0.218 0.036 0.083 0.012 0.011 -0.038 -0.055 0.062 9 0.215 0.039 0.084 0.012 0.010 -0.041 -0.057 0.054 0.039 10 0.218 0.042 0.080 0.009 0.011 -0.040 -0.051 0.056 0.054 -0.071 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1015.34 1006.12 1007.58 1008.24 1010.23 1012.22 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1013.82 1015.47 1016.70 1018.41 1019.41 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.234 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.48 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 105.80 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.234 0.055 0.013 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 749011 1 0.195 0.394 2 749012 1 0.263 0.498 3 749021 1 0.043 0.133 4 749022 1 0.062 0.214 5 749031 1 0.193 0.420 6 749032 1 0.251 0.490 7 749041 1 0.129 0.346 8 749042 1 0.069 0.230 9 749051 1 0.279 0.511 10 749052 1 0.060 0.229 11 749061 1 0.108 0.306 12 749062 1 0.221 0.457 13 749071 1 0.047 0.217 14 749072 1 0.109 0.323 15 749081 1 0.538 0.708 16 749082 1 0.023 0.149 17 749091 1 0.115 0.332 18 749092 1 0.025 0.135 19 749101 1 0.201 0.432 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 749102 1 0.074 0.246 21 749111 1 0.191 0.400 22 749112 1 0.290 0.504 23 749121 1 0.081 0.213 24 749122 1 0.260 0.472 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.159 0.348 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.119 0.146 MEDIAN 1 0.122 0.339 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.171 0.242 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.023 0.133 LOWER HINGE 1 0.065 0.223 UPPER HINGE 1 0.236 0.465 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.538 0.708 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 749011 1808 1951 144 1.000 0.069 0.482 4.809 0.073 -0.086 2 749012 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.084 1.125 6.050 0.088 -0.099 3 749021 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.076 0.586 3.253 0.085 -0.021 4 749022 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.073 0.585 3.261 0.080 -0.029 5 749031 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.079 0.294 4.360 0.084 -0.050 6 749032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.078 1.464 12.504 0.082 -0.069 7 749041 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.071 0.504 3.964 0.079 -0.042 8 749042 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.081 0.782 3.820 0.091 -0.029 9 749051 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.063 0.296 3.779 0.074 -0.084 10 749052 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.066 0.761 3.688 0.074 -0.021 11 749061 1809 1983 175 1.000 0.051 0.152 2.759 0.060 -0.035 12 749062 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.059 0.319 3.061 0.069 -0.059 13 749071 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.086 3.005 25.916 0.075 -0.004 14 749072 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.055 0.007 3.060 0.063 -0.024 15 749081 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.075 -0.136 4.681 0.089 -0.193 16 749082 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.068 0.629 8.278 0.073 0.005 17 749091 1811 1983 173 1.000 0.084 -0.164 7.998 0.091 -0.023 18 749092 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.061 0.023 2.739 0.067 -0.010 19 749101 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.063 0.304 3.039 0.073 -0.053 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 749102 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.056 0.126 2.809 0.063 -0.028 21 749111 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.060 0.202 2.992 0.071 -0.078 22 749112 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.064 0.129 4.261 0.071 -0.124 23 749121 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.057 -0.085 2.796 0.067 -0.041 24 749122 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.054 -0.014 3.279 0.063 -0.109 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.068 0.474 5.298 0.075 -0.054 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.000 0.011 0.670 4.950 0.009 0.045 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.067 0.300 3.733 0.074 -0.042 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.018 0.533 1.695 0.015 0.057 MINIMUM VALUE 113 1.000 0.051 -0.164 2.739 0.060 -0.193 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 166 1.000 0.059 0.074 3.050 0.068 -0.081 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.077 0.607 4.745 0.083 -0.024 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 1.000 0.086 3.005 25.916 0.091 0.005 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.349 0.096 0.006 0.049 3.193 0.097 0.619 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.097 SERIES 749041 AND 749112 165 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.619 SERIES 749071 AND 749101 172 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 3. 136. 231. 231. 276. 253. RBAR 0.331 0.281 0.260 0.325 0.485 0.462 SDEV 0.263 0.153 0.148 0.149 0.126 0.133 SERR 0.152 0.013 0.010 0.010 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.864 0.892 0.889 0.920 0.958 0.953 NSS 12.9 21.2 22.8 23.8 24.0 23.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.041 0.363 3.133 0.048 -0.089 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.046 0.019 0.032 95 104 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.61 1.00 1.06 1.67 12.12 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.68 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.088 0.026 0.050 0.055 0.059 0.040 -0.015 0.039 0.069 -0.078 PACF -0.088 0.018 0.054 0.064 0.069 0.047 -0.017 0.024 0.065 -0.076 95% C.L. 0.142 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.145 0.145 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 0.022 0.059 0.065 0.069 0.045 -0.008 0.045 0.067 -0.066 PACF 0.003 0.022 0.058 0.065 0.067 0.040 -0.018 0.032 0.055 -0.076 95% C.L. 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.143 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.145 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.043 0.488 3.105 0.041 0.245 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.244 0.093 0.096 0.099 0.100 0.068 0.024 0.060 0.065 -0.038 PACF 0.244 0.035 0.069 0.062 0.059 0.022 -0.014 0.043 0.029 -0.079 95% C.L. 0.142 0.150 0.151 0.152 0.154 0.155 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.157 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.064 0.250 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES