RUN: MT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: MT106W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: MT106W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 749 1 Lost Trail Pass WIDTH_RING PCEN - 749 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2130 4542-11357 1785 1983 749 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 749011 1808 1951 144 1.275 0.385 0.539 2.699 0.149 0.805 2 749012 1803 1983 181 1.350 0.514 1.080 3.647 0.153 0.879 3 749021 1870 1983 114 1.556 0.354 -0.234 2.873 0.181 0.526 4 749022 1868 1980 113 1.472 0.370 0.235 2.952 0.197 0.504 5 749031 1803 1983 181 1.471 0.510 0.903 3.344 0.167 0.760 6 749032 1804 1983 180 1.282 0.628 2.070 7.415 0.148 0.919 7 749041 1794 1983 190 1.146 0.622 1.796 6.039 0.176 0.897 8 749042 1839 1983 145 1.463 0.408 0.429 2.661 0.207 0.594 9 749051 1785 1983 199 1.212 0.772 0.893 2.633 0.193 0.907 10 749052 1803 1983 181 1.223 0.514 0.730 3.040 0.192 0.816 11 749061 1809 1983 175 1.425 0.607 0.926 3.986 0.147 0.907 12 749062 1800 1983 184 1.321 0.605 0.960 3.667 0.156 0.890 13 749071 1806 1983 178 1.574 0.766 0.715 2.647 0.171 0.903 14 749072 1795 1983 189 1.451 0.835 1.013 2.957 0.167 0.941 15 749081 1785 1983 199 1.722 1.361 1.531 4.709 0.206 0.945 16 749082 1816 1983 168 1.282 0.921 1.319 3.838 0.250 0.889 17 749091 1811 1983 173 1.552 0.678 0.246 1.985 0.234 0.749 18 749092 1816 1983 168 1.132 0.615 1.083 3.419 0.203 0.848 19 749101 1812 1983 172 1.630 0.486 0.448 2.700 0.171 0.743 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 749102 1806 1983 178 1.618 0.646 1.003 4.296 0.152 0.879 21 749111 1827 1983 157 1.815 0.551 0.245 2.576 0.147 0.774 22 749112 1819 1983 165 1.547 0.562 0.725 2.544 0.145 0.855 23 749121 1804 1983 180 2.094 1.024 0.586 2.381 0.180 0.893 24 749122 1785 1983 199 1.924 1.034 0.646 2.705 0.202 0.901 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1785 TO 1983 199 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.481 0.657 0.829 3.405 0.179 0.822 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.242 0.241 0.516 1.228 0.029 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.467 0.611 0.811 2.954 0.174 0.879 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.314 0.258 0.553 1.098 0.047 0.135 MINIMUM VALUE 113 1.132 0.354 -0.234 1.985 0.145 0.504 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 166 1.282 0.512 0.493 2.654 0.153 0.767 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 182 1.596 0.769 1.047 3.752 0.199 0.902 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 2.094 1.361 2.070 7.415 0.250 0.945 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.663 0.212 0.013 -1.345 4.779 -0.120 0.956 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.120 SERIES 749021 AND 749062 114 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.956 SERIES 749121 AND 749122 180 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 3. 136. 231. 231. 276. 253. RBAR 0.553 0.605 0.618 0.644 0.367 0.482 SDEV 0.101 0.158 0.200 0.117 0.238 0.252 SERR 0.058 0.014 0.013 0.008 0.014 0.016 EPS 0.941 0.970 0.974 0.977 0.933 0.957 NSS 12.9 21.2 22.8 23.8 24.0 23.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1983 199 1.628 0.734 1.011 3.096 0.132 0.935 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.588 0.150 0.231 39 160 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.37 1.00 1.05 1.42 7.34 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.73 0.87 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 178. 16. 113. 166. 182. 199. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.930 0.909 0.889 0.870 0.856 0.834 0.802 0.784 0.763 0.728 PACF 0.930 0.325 0.136 0.063 0.060 -0.024 -0.117 0.008 0.002 -0.124 95% C.L. 0.142 0.234 0.297 0.346 0.388 0.424 0.456 0.483 0.508 0.531 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.909 0.439 0.275 0.139 0.122 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 749011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00560984 1.68143547 2 749012 1 1.57579267 0.00737426 0.00000000 0.48387182 3 749021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00458083 1.81962585 4 749022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00506022 1.76029074 5 749031 1 1.62201071 0.01879930 0.00000000 1.01412582 6 749032 1 2.56071234 0.03793115 0.00000000 0.91431260 7 749041 1 2.72556162 0.04312866 0.00000000 0.82076538 8 749042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00198004 1.31800866 9 749051 1 2.78784204 0.01152242 0.00000000 0.12521479 10 749052 1 1.83854437 0.00996743 0.00000000 0.37616897 11 749061 1 2.23625755 0.04853763 0.00000000 1.16769469 12 749062 1 2.22430730 0.03791261 0.00000000 1.00832927 13 749071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01268662 2.70960951 14 749072 1 3.00599384 0.01150806 0.00000000 0.23265018 15 749081 1 4.79735851 0.01590640 0.00000000 0.28175408 16 749082 1 3.45120692 0.02400397 0.00000000 0.45184776 17 749091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00990975 2.41393995 18 749092 1 2.20898724 0.01722183 0.00000000 0.41746828 19 749101 1 1.43816853 0.02311037 0.00000000 1.27903175 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 749102 1 2.10496068 0.02445452 0.00000000 1.14654994 21 749111 1 1.65885842 0.00793001 0.00000000 0.86990094 22 749112 1 1.82493305 0.01462657 0.00000000 0.86329961 23 749121 1 4.06844187 0.00986089 0.00000000 0.20002025 24 749122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01601221 3.52499008 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 749011 1808 1951 144 1.000 0.222 -0.387 2.859 0.148 0.645 2 749012 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.269 0.486 3.420 0.152 0.755 3 749021 1870 1983 114 0.999 0.213 0.301 3.206 0.180 0.459 4 749022 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.231 0.606 4.259 0.195 0.423 5 749031 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.200 -0.376 3.213 0.166 0.389 6 749032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.188 0.133 2.846 0.147 0.503 7 749041 1794 1983 190 0.999 0.249 0.315 2.961 0.174 0.597 8 749042 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.273 0.410 2.698 0.205 0.559 9 749051 1785 1983 199 1.014 0.313 0.536 3.462 0.192 0.685 10 749052 1803 1983 181 0.999 0.238 0.090 2.926 0.191 0.491 11 749061 1809 1983 175 1.000 0.312 0.422 3.031 0.146 0.846 12 749062 1800 1983 184 0.999 0.312 0.522 3.020 0.156 0.794 13 749071 1806 1983 178 1.015 0.261 0.466 3.495 0.171 0.672 14 749072 1795 1983 189 1.007 0.262 0.511 3.242 0.166 0.641 15 749081 1785 1983 199 1.014 0.295 0.595 4.189 0.206 0.584 16 749082 1816 1983 168 1.001 0.277 0.165 3.173 0.249 0.346 17 749091 1811 1983 173 0.995 0.290 0.115 2.481 0.233 0.501 18 749092 1816 1983 168 1.001 0.225 0.395 3.244 0.201 0.398 19 749101 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.215 0.258 3.164 0.171 0.539 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 749102 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.249 0.054 2.925 0.151 0.707 21 749111 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.250 0.277 3.137 0.147 0.692 22 749112 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.213 0.099 2.790 0.144 0.619 23 749121 1804 1983 180 0.999 0.213 -0.255 3.419 0.179 0.442 24 749122 1785 1983 199 1.039 0.310 0.784 4.553 0.201 0.596 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.003 0.253 0.272 3.238 0.178 0.578 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.009 0.038 0.303 0.494 0.028 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.250 0.308 3.168 0.172 0.590 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.002 0.065 0.392 0.494 0.047 0.203 MINIMUM VALUE 113 0.995 0.188 -0.387 2.481 0.144 0.346 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 166 0.999 0.219 0.107 2.925 0.152 0.475 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 182 1.001 0.283 0.499 3.419 0.198 0.679 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 1.039 0.313 0.784 4.553 0.249 0.846 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 749011 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 749012 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 749021 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 749022 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 749031 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 749032 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 749041 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 749042 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 749051 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 749052 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 749061 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 749062 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 749071 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 749072 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 749081 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 749082 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 749091 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 749092 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 749101 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 749102 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 749111 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 749112 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 749121 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 749122 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 749011 1808 1951 144 0.996 0.203 -0.270 3.182 0.148 0.573 2 749012 1803 1983 181 0.996 0.249 0.430 3.426 0.152 0.714 3 749021 1870 1983 114 0.998 0.181 0.136 3.422 0.179 0.288 4 749022 1868 1980 113 0.997 0.206 0.242 3.610 0.195 0.288 5 749031 1803 1983 181 0.999 0.196 -0.312 3.189 0.166 0.368 6 749032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.183 0.035 2.842 0.147 0.472 7 749041 1794 1983 190 0.997 0.211 0.375 2.940 0.174 0.451 8 749042 1839 1983 145 0.995 0.234 0.071 2.544 0.205 0.425 9 749051 1785 1983 199 0.992 0.237 0.457 3.522 0.191 0.483 10 749052 1803 1983 181 0.997 0.219 0.170 2.877 0.191 0.403 11 749061 1809 1983 175 0.990 0.224 0.472 3.226 0.145 0.689 12 749062 1800 1983 184 0.990 0.223 0.766 3.967 0.156 0.591 13 749071 1806 1983 178 0.998 0.229 -0.097 2.595 0.171 0.600 14 749072 1795 1983 189 0.997 0.225 0.272 3.018 0.166 0.547 15 749081 1785 1983 199 0.998 0.262 0.029 2.821 0.206 0.509 16 749082 1816 1983 168 0.999 0.273 0.164 3.254 0.248 0.329 17 749091 1811 1983 173 0.996 0.269 -0.015 2.429 0.233 0.437 18 749092 1816 1983 168 0.997 0.208 0.287 3.080 0.201 0.302 19 749101 1812 1983 172 0.997 0.194 0.054 2.997 0.170 0.451 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 749102 1806 1983 178 0.995 0.213 -0.079 3.266 0.151 0.616 21 749111 1827 1983 157 0.996 0.221 0.084 3.196 0.146 0.621 22 749112 1819 1983 165 0.998 0.198 -0.079 2.928 0.144 0.558 23 749121 1804 1983 180 0.998 0.203 -0.242 3.238 0.179 0.382 24 749122 1785 1983 199 0.998 0.237 -0.068 3.097 0.201 0.423 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 0.997 0.221 0.120 3.111 0.178 0.480 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.003 0.025 0.260 0.348 0.028 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 0.997 0.220 0.077 3.140 0.172 0.462 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.002 0.033 0.353 0.357 0.046 0.189 MINIMUM VALUE 113 0.990 0.181 -0.312 2.429 0.144 0.288 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 166 0.996 0.203 -0.074 2.903 0.151 0.393 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 182 0.998 0.235 0.280 3.260 0.198 0.582 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 1.000 0.273 0.766 3.967 0.248 0.714 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.502 0.108 0.006 -0.240 4.018 0.081 0.806 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.081 SERIES 749061 AND 749122 175 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.806 SERIES 749111 AND 749112 157 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 3. 136. 231. 231. 276. 253. RBAR 0.474 0.556 0.585 0.494 0.452 0.549 SDEV 0.074 0.142 0.136 0.146 0.183 0.165 SERR 0.043 0.012 0.009 0.010 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.921 0.964 0.970 0.959 0.952 0.967 NSS 12.9 21.2 22.8 23.8 24.0 23.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1983 199 0.987 0.162 -0.182 2.891 0.138 0.434 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.363 0.097 0.052 59 140 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.49 1.00 1.05 1.54 6.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.71 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.432 0.333 0.297 0.236 0.198 0.190 0.056 0.030 0.074 0.013 PACF 0.432 0.180 0.129 0.048 0.032 0.050 -0.117 -0.041 0.059 -0.037 95% C.L. 0.142 0.166 0.179 0.189 0.195 0.199 0.202 0.203 0.203 0.203 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.240 0.326 0.147 0.137 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.389 0.281 0.262 0.227 0.196 0.192 0.028 0.014 0.081 0.014 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.389 2 0.330 0.152 3 0.310 0.109 0.132 4 0.299 0.100 0.108 0.078 5 0.295 0.095 0.103 0.063 0.050 6 0.292 0.091 0.097 0.057 0.033 0.060 7 0.301 0.096 0.105 0.071 0.046 0.102 -0.144 8 0.295 0.100 0.107 0.074 0.050 0.107 -0.131 -0.044 9 0.298 0.109 0.100 0.071 0.045 0.099 -0.138 -0.064 0.068 10 0.301 0.107 0.094 0.075 0.047 0.102 -0.134 -0.059 0.080 -0.041 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1547.85 1517.16 1514.48 1512.97 1513.75 1515.25 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1516.52 1514.36 1515.98 1517.05 1518.72 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.310 0.109 0.132 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 18.57 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 122.80 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.310 0.205 0.229 0.134 0.094 0.074 0.051 0.036 0.027 0.0189 0.014 0.010 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.0007 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 749011 3 0.372 0.424 0.169 0.110 2 749012 3 0.528 0.600 0.102 0.074 3 749021 3 0.084 0.286 0.003 0.019 4 749022 3 0.115 0.298 -0.062 0.142 5 749031 3 0.167 0.318 0.058 0.141 6 749032 3 0.250 0.443 0.005 0.115 7 749041 3 0.223 0.390 0.124 0.017 8 749042 3 0.218 0.397 0.058 0.032 9 749051 3 0.282 0.386 0.088 0.162 10 749052 3 0.215 0.293 0.160 0.140 11 749061 3 0.505 0.557 0.113 0.101 12 749062 3 0.434 0.402 0.137 0.219 13 749071 3 0.382 0.501 0.152 0.020 14 749072 3 0.334 0.446 0.209 -0.020 15 749081 3 0.294 0.438 0.047 0.150 16 749082 3 0.136 0.295 0.025 0.155 17 749091 3 0.263 0.309 0.261 0.038 18 749092 3 0.113 0.284 0.063 0.017 19 749101 3 0.228 0.402 0.044 0.124 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 749102 3 0.414 0.499 0.074 0.151 21 749111 3 0.420 0.487 0.121 0.119 22 749112 3 0.332 0.492 0.058 0.096 23 749121 3 0.188 0.295 0.184 0.063 24 749122 3 0.261 0.277 0.163 0.211 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.282 0.397 0.098 0.100 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.123 0.095 0.074 0.065 MEDIAN 3 0.262 0.399 0.095 0.112 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.175 0.170 0.104 0.111 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.084 0.277 -0.062 -0.020 LOWER HINGE 3 0.202 0.297 0.052 0.035 UPPER HINGE 3 0.377 0.467 0.156 0.146 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.528 0.600 0.261 0.219 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 749011 1808 1951 144 1.000 0.161 -0.158 3.985 0.182 -0.008 2 749012 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.171 -0.051 4.023 0.198 -0.004 3 749021 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.173 -0.102 3.283 0.204 0.001 4 749022 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.195 0.189 3.370 0.224 -0.016 5 749031 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.179 -0.443 4.224 0.190 -0.004 6 749032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.159 -0.317 3.418 0.179 -0.014 7 749041 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.187 0.183 3.389 0.208 -0.001 8 749042 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.210 -0.081 2.738 0.246 -0.008 9 749051 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.202 0.288 3.987 0.230 -0.018 10 749052 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.194 0.166 3.062 0.215 -0.001 11 749061 1809 1983 175 1.000 0.158 -0.021 2.934 0.180 -0.005 12 749062 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.170 0.878 4.303 0.186 -0.032 13 749071 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.181 -0.186 2.936 0.206 0.003 14 749072 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.184 -0.378 4.306 0.210 0.000 15 749081 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.220 -0.522 4.509 0.251 0.007 16 749082 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.252 -0.373 4.211 0.291 -0.001 17 749091 1811 1983 173 1.000 0.232 -0.031 3.364 0.263 -0.006 18 749092 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.197 0.130 3.094 0.229 0.000 19 749101 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.170 -0.124 3.144 0.201 0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 749102 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.164 -0.067 3.978 0.189 -0.017 21 749111 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.169 0.067 3.406 0.182 0.011 22 749112 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.162 -0.043 2.856 0.170 0.010 23 749121 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.182 -0.285 3.587 0.209 0.009 24 749122 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.204 0.061 3.708 0.227 -0.013 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.187 -0.051 3.576 0.211 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.000 0.024 0.291 0.530 0.030 0.010 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.182 -0.059 3.412 0.207 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.030 0.334 0.886 0.041 0.013 MINIMUM VALUE 113 1.000 0.158 -0.522 2.738 0.170 -0.032 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 166 1.000 0.169 -0.235 3.119 0.187 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.199 0.098 4.005 0.228 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 1.000 0.252 0.878 4.509 0.291 0.011 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.561 0.077 0.005 0.204 3.525 0.342 0.861 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.342 SERIES 749062 AND 749122 184 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.861 SERIES 749081 AND 749082 168 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 3. 136. 231. 231. 276. 253. RBAR 0.418 0.571 0.614 0.553 0.564 0.600 SDEV 0.085 0.111 0.099 0.099 0.122 0.107 SERR 0.049 0.009 0.006 0.007 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.903 0.966 0.973 0.967 0.969 0.973 NSS 12.9 21.2 22.8 23.8 24.0 23.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1983 199 0.996 0.138 -0.380 3.359 0.165 -0.071 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.186 0.051 0.065 63 136 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.48 1.01 1.11 1.59 113.67 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.63 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.071 -0.018 -0.021 0.040 0.058 0.106 -0.093 -0.066 0.072 -0.001 PACF -0.071 -0.023 -0.024 0.036 0.063 0.118 -0.073 -0.075 0.059 -0.010 95% C.L. 0.142 0.142 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.145 0.146 0.147 0.147 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.003 0.008 0.040 0.064 0.106 -0.085 -0.064 0.068 -0.002 PACF 0.001 0.003 0.008 0.040 0.064 0.107 -0.087 -0.069 0.063 -0.013 95% C.L. 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.143 0.144 0.145 0.146 0.146 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.002 0.001 0.003 0.008 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1983 199 0.997 0.156 -0.147 2.767 0.134 0.415 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.413 0.309 0.302 0.220 0.196 0.188 0.036 0.014 0.071 -0.001 PACF 0.413 0.167 0.156 0.031 0.046 0.048 -0.134 -0.048 0.062 -0.040 95% C.L. 0.142 0.164 0.176 0.186 0.191 0.195 0.198 0.199 0.199 0.199 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.225 0.313 0.123 0.166 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES