RUN: MT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: MT106X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: MT106X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 749 1 Lost Trail Pass DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCEN - 749 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2130 4542-11357 1785 1983 749 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 17 749091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 1 GAPS / 1853 1859 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 749011 1808 1951 144 0.717 0.071 -0.638 3.321 0.080 0.535 2 749012 1803 1983 181 0.763 0.081 -0.223 2.826 0.077 0.579 3 749021 1870 1983 114 0.719 0.063 -1.124 4.637 0.088 0.147 4 749022 1868 1980 113 0.784 0.054 -0.415 3.659 0.066 0.230 5 749031 1803 1983 181 0.669 0.083 -0.808 2.983 0.070 0.736 6 749032 1804 1983 180 0.691 0.057 -0.114 2.990 0.065 0.468 7 749041 1794 1983 190 0.728 0.056 -0.294 3.546 0.060 0.510 8 749042 1839 1983 145 0.737 0.052 -0.589 3.837 0.066 0.281 9 749051 1785 1983 199 0.726 0.058 -0.985 3.900 0.054 0.611 10 749052 1803 1983 181 0.751 0.047 -0.141 2.874 0.053 0.405 11 749061 1809 1983 175 0.654 0.068 -0.462 2.925 0.094 0.400 12 749062 1800 1983 184 0.689 0.062 -0.457 2.829 0.080 0.418 13 749071 1806 1983 178 0.668 0.062 -0.711 3.452 0.083 0.365 14 749072 1795 1983 189 0.695 0.065 -0.462 3.447 0.088 0.319 15 749081 1785 1983 199 0.653 0.084 -0.188 2.360 0.081 0.673 16 749082 1816 1983 168 0.624 0.079 -0.155 3.119 0.097 0.534 17 749091 1811 1983 173 0.679 0.073 -0.588 3.661 0.109 0.247 18 749092 1816 1983 168 0.647 0.082 -0.159 2.835 0.095 0.567 19 749101 1812 1983 172 0.696 0.063 -0.544 3.308 0.089 0.245 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 749102 1806 1983 178 0.691 0.061 -0.634 3.881 0.084 0.289 21 749111 1827 1983 157 0.685 0.063 -0.649 3.605 0.089 0.214 22 749112 1819 1983 165 0.660 0.076 -0.522 3.081 0.100 0.385 23 749121 1804 1983 180 0.705 0.065 -0.578 3.444 0.096 0.167 24 749122 1785 1983 199 0.704 0.071 -0.289 2.687 0.090 0.349 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 24 FROM 1785 TO 1983 199 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 0.697 0.066 -0.489 3.300 0.081 0.403 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.039 0.010 0.266 0.501 0.015 0.163 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 0.693 0.064 -0.492 3.315 0.084 0.392 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 17 0.054 0.015 0.381 0.733 0.023 0.271 MINIMUM VALUE 113 0.624 0.047 -1.124 2.360 0.053 0.147 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 165 0.669 0.059 -0.636 2.899 0.068 0.264 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 182 0.723 0.075 -0.256 3.632 0.092 0.535 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 0.784 0.084 -0.114 4.637 0.109 0.736 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.362 0.203 0.012 -0.480 2.990 -0.300 0.806 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.300 SERIES 749012 AND 749031 181 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.806 SERIES 749101 AND 749102 172 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 3. 136. 231. 231. 276. 253. RBAR 0.309 0.294 0.350 0.509 0.507 0.452 SDEV 0.153 0.231 0.270 0.189 0.235 0.207 SERR 0.089 0.020 0.018 0.012 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.852 0.898 0.925 0.961 0.961 0.951 NSS 12.9 21.2 22.8 23.8 24.0 23.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1983 199 0.702 0.044 -0.792 4.421 0.061 0.180 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.430 -0.197 0.199 64 135 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.28 1.00 1.06 1.34 4.97 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.06 0.79 0.88 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 178. 16. 113. 166. 182. 199. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.179 0.116 0.124 0.237 0.104 0.068 0.135 0.123 0.127 0.096 PACF 0.179 0.086 0.093 0.203 0.024 0.007 0.085 0.038 0.069 0.036 95% C.L. 0.142 0.146 0.148 0.150 0.157 0.159 0.159 0.162 0.164 0.166 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.040 0.179 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 749011 1 0.28495786 0.00219142 0.00000000 0.47285321 2 749012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00090923 0.68068510 3 749021 1 0.08448233 0.06165827 0.00000000 0.70765644 4 749022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00053738 0.75361729 5 749031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00106381 0.76619887 6 749032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00025821 0.71431226 7 749041 1 0.05872468 0.04012110 0.00000000 0.72034854 8 749042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028964 0.75845402 9 749051 1 0.13285753 0.00541715 0.00000000 0.64464170 10 749052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037494 0.71648806 11 749061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000627 0.65333396 12 749062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00044392 0.64768708 13 749071 1 0.03048331 0.03702247 0.00000000 0.66394901 14 749072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011036 0.68417144 15 749081 1 0.13597362 0.04368201 0.00000000 0.63761443 16 749082 1 0.21285412 0.02331089 0.00000000 0.57122022 17 749091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00033332 0.70844150 18 749092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00113247 0.74313444 19 749101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025851 0.67362708 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 749102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002261 0.68848217 21 749111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018451 0.69941694 22 749112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00052865 0.61612195 23 749121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018548 0.72211915 24 749122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017052 0.72102177 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 749011 1808 1951 144 1.000 0.095 -0.612 3.326 0.079 0.486 2 749012 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.087 -0.420 4.040 0.076 0.398 3 749021 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.084 -1.107 4.852 0.088 0.070 4 749022 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.065 -0.741 3.584 0.066 0.133 5 749031 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.095 0.112 3.244 0.070 0.544 6 749032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.080 -0.052 2.940 0.065 0.430 7 749041 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.075 -0.167 3.768 0.059 0.483 8 749042 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.069 -0.670 3.831 0.066 0.226 9 749051 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.073 -0.698 3.573 0.054 0.523 10 749052 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.057 -0.624 3.427 0.053 0.286 11 749061 1809 1983 175 1.000 0.104 -0.464 2.926 0.093 0.398 12 749062 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.084 -0.398 2.793 0.080 0.310 13 749071 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.093 -0.718 3.430 0.083 0.355 14 749072 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.094 -0.440 3.511 0.088 0.311 15 749081 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.122 -0.114 2.590 0.081 0.633 16 749082 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.095 -0.503 3.860 0.097 0.143 17 749091 1811 1983 173 1.000 0.103 -0.449 3.546 0.106 0.199 18 749092 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.095 -0.462 3.634 0.094 0.182 19 749101 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.088 -0.620 3.340 0.089 0.208 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 749102 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.089 -0.664 3.917 0.084 0.286 21 749111 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.092 -0.620 3.751 0.089 0.195 22 749112 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.109 -0.556 3.253 0.099 0.316 23 749121 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.091 -0.472 3.429 0.095 0.152 24 749122 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.099 -0.237 2.714 0.089 0.341 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.089 -0.487 3.470 0.081 0.317 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.000 0.014 0.260 0.487 0.015 0.147 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.091 -0.487 3.470 0.083 0.311 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.013 0.235 0.511 0.023 0.217 MINIMUM VALUE 113 1.000 0.057 -1.107 2.590 0.053 0.070 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 166 1.000 0.082 -0.644 3.248 0.068 0.197 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.095 -0.409 3.760 0.091 0.414 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 1.000 0.122 0.112 4.852 0.106 0.633 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 749011 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 749012 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 749021 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 749022 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 749031 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 749032 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 749041 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 749042 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 749051 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 749052 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 749061 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 749062 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 749071 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 749072 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 749081 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 749082 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 749091 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 749092 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 749101 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 749102 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 749111 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 749112 -67 110 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 749121 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 749122 -67 133 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 749011 1808 1951 144 0.999 0.078 -0.720 3.718 0.079 0.213 2 749012 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.081 -0.495 3.868 0.076 0.293 3 749021 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.081 -1.116 4.785 0.088 -0.011 4 749022 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.062 -0.738 3.679 0.066 0.015 5 749031 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.075 -0.116 3.402 0.070 0.289 6 749032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.077 -0.161 3.058 0.065 0.378 7 749041 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.064 -0.148 3.241 0.059 0.284 8 749042 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.066 -0.717 3.831 0.066 0.164 9 749051 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.070 -0.678 3.701 0.054 0.490 10 749052 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.056 -0.595 3.278 0.053 0.253 11 749061 1809 1983 175 1.000 0.095 -0.615 3.182 0.093 0.287 12 749062 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.081 -0.421 2.784 0.080 0.248 13 749071 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.091 -0.756 3.628 0.083 0.318 14 749072 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.087 -0.377 3.702 0.088 0.201 15 749081 1785 1983 199 0.999 0.111 -0.195 2.867 0.081 0.556 16 749082 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.093 -0.582 4.189 0.097 0.105 17 749091 1811 1983 173 1.000 0.098 -0.474 3.630 0.106 0.102 18 749092 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.087 -0.547 4.102 0.095 0.030 19 749101 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.084 -0.803 3.943 0.089 0.124 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 749102 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.082 -0.824 4.699 0.084 0.165 21 749111 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.087 -0.896 3.977 0.089 0.109 22 749112 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.100 -0.697 3.880 0.099 0.189 23 749121 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.086 -0.680 3.656 0.095 0.063 24 749122 1785 1983 199 0.999 0.091 -0.329 2.813 0.089 0.218 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.082 -0.570 3.650 0.081 0.212 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.000 0.013 0.255 0.520 0.015 0.140 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.083 -0.605 3.690 0.083 0.207 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.015 0.330 0.652 0.023 0.181 MINIMUM VALUE 113 0.999 0.056 -1.116 2.784 0.053 -0.011 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 166 1.000 0.076 -0.729 3.260 0.068 0.107 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.091 -0.399 3.911 0.091 0.288 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 1.000 0.111 -0.116 4.785 0.106 0.556 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.453 0.161 0.010 -0.294 2.757 -0.030 0.808 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.030 SERIES 749012 AND 749081 181 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.808 SERIES 749111 AND 749112 157 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 3. 136. 231. 231. 276. 253. RBAR 0.238 0.307 0.366 0.541 0.535 0.481 SDEV 0.073 0.215 0.225 0.164 0.203 0.191 SERR 0.042 0.018 0.015 0.011 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.801 0.904 0.929 0.966 0.965 0.957 NSS 12.9 21.2 22.8 23.8 24.0 23.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1983 199 1.001 0.057 -1.046 4.623 0.062 0.032 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.233 -0.069 0.130 54 145 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.21 1.00 1.03 1.24 20.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.77 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.031 -0.007 -0.002 0.122 -0.021 -0.047 0.014 0.017 0.042 0.021 PACF 0.031 -0.008 -0.001 0.122 -0.030 -0.044 0.018 0.000 0.048 0.030 95% C.L. 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.145 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.066 -0.024 -0.005 0.087 -0.015 -0.050 0.009 0.033 0.072 0.010 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.066 2 0.068 -0.028 3 0.068 -0.028 -0.001 4 0.068 -0.026 -0.007 0.087 5 0.070 -0.026 -0.008 0.089 -0.028 6 0.069 -0.022 -0.008 0.088 -0.025 -0.043 7 0.070 -0.022 -0.009 0.088 -0.024 -0.044 0.016 8 0.069 -0.021 -0.009 0.086 -0.024 -0.044 0.014 0.021 9 0.068 -0.022 -0.006 0.088 -0.030 -0.043 0.016 0.016 0.073 10 0.067 -0.022 -0.006 0.088 -0.030 -0.044 0.016 0.017 0.072 0.009 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1134.75 1135.88 1137.73 1139.73 1140.22 1142.07 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1143.70 1145.65 1147.56 1148.50 1150.49 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 749011 0 0.046 2 749012 0 0.086 3 749021 0 0.000 4 749022 0 0.000 5 749031 0 0.085 6 749032 0 0.145 7 749041 0 0.081 8 749042 0 0.028 9 749051 0 0.242 10 749052 0 0.064 11 749061 0 0.083 12 749062 0 0.063 13 749071 0 0.101 14 749072 0 0.040 15 749081 0 0.312 16 749082 0 0.011 17 749091 0 0.010 18 749092 0 0.001 19 749101 0 0.015 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 749102 0 0.027 21 749111 0 0.012 22 749112 0 0.036 23 749121 0 0.004 24 749122 0 0.048 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.064 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.076 MEDIAN 0 0.043 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.072 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.012 UPPER HINGE 0 0.084 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.312 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 749011 1808 1951 144 1.000 0.078 -0.720 3.718 0.079 0.213 2 749012 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.081 -0.495 3.868 0.076 0.293 3 749021 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.081 -1.116 4.785 0.088 -0.011 4 749022 1868 1980 113 1.000 0.062 -0.738 3.679 0.066 0.015 5 749031 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.075 -0.116 3.402 0.070 0.289 6 749032 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.077 -0.161 3.058 0.065 0.378 7 749041 1794 1983 190 1.000 0.064 -0.148 3.241 0.059 0.284 8 749042 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.066 -0.717 3.832 0.066 0.164 9 749051 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.070 -0.678 3.701 0.054 0.490 10 749052 1803 1983 181 1.000 0.056 -0.595 3.278 0.053 0.253 11 749061 1809 1983 175 1.000 0.095 -0.615 3.182 0.093 0.287 12 749062 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.081 -0.421 2.784 0.080 0.248 13 749071 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.091 -0.756 3.628 0.083 0.318 14 749072 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.087 -0.377 3.702 0.088 0.201 15 749081 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.111 -0.195 2.867 0.081 0.556 16 749082 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.093 -0.582 4.189 0.097 0.105 17 749091 1811 1983 173 1.000 0.098 -0.474 3.630 0.106 0.102 18 749092 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.087 -0.547 4.102 0.094 0.030 19 749101 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.084 -0.803 3.943 0.088 0.124 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 749102 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.082 -0.824 4.699 0.084 0.165 21 749111 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.087 -0.896 3.977 0.089 0.109 22 749112 1819 1983 165 1.000 0.100 -0.697 3.880 0.099 0.189 23 749121 1804 1983 180 1.000 0.086 -0.680 3.656 0.095 0.063 24 749122 1785 1983 199 1.000 0.091 -0.329 2.813 0.089 0.218 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 171 1.000 0.082 -0.570 3.650 0.081 0.212 STANDARD DEVIATION 22 0.000 0.013 0.255 0.520 0.015 0.140 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 178 1.000 0.083 -0.605 3.690 0.083 0.207 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 16 0.000 0.015 0.330 0.652 0.023 0.181 MINIMUM VALUE 113 1.000 0.056 -1.116 2.784 0.053 -0.011 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 166 1.000 0.076 -0.729 3.260 0.068 0.107 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 182 1.000 0.091 -0.399 3.911 0.091 0.288 MAXIMUM VALUE 199 1.000 0.111 -0.116 4.785 0.106 0.556 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 276 0.453 0.161 0.010 -0.294 2.757 -0.030 0.808 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.030 SERIES 749012 AND 749081 181 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.808 SERIES 749111 AND 749112 157 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.77 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1810. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 3. 136. 231. 231. 276. 253. RBAR 0.238 0.307 0.366 0.541 0.535 0.481 SDEV 0.073 0.215 0.225 0.164 0.203 0.191 SERR 0.042 0.018 0.015 0.011 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.801 0.904 0.929 0.966 0.965 0.957 NSS 12.9 21.2 22.8 23.8 24.0 23.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1983 199 1.001 0.057 -1.046 4.624 0.062 0.032 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.231 -0.068 0.129 54 145 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.21 1.00 1.03 1.24 16.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.08 0.77 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.032 -0.007 -0.002 0.122 -0.021 -0.047 0.015 0.017 0.042 0.021 PACF 0.032 -0.008 -0.001 0.122 -0.029 -0.044 0.019 0.000 0.048 0.029 95% C.L. 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.145 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1785 1983 199 1.001 0.057 -1.046 4.624 0.062 0.032 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.032 -0.007 -0.002 0.122 -0.021 -0.047 0.015 0.017 0.042 0.021 PACF 0.032 -0.008 -0.001 0.122 -0.029 -0.044 0.019 0.000 0.048 0.029 95% C.L. 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.145 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES