RUN: MT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: MT107E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: MT107E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 747 1 Skalkaho Pass, Bitterroo WIDTH_EARLY PCEN - 747 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2160 4614-11346 1782 1983 747 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 17 747091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 53 IN 1 GAPS / 1884 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 747111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 66 IN 1 GAPS / 1865 1930 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 747011 1820 1983 164 1.674 0.690 2.044 9.817 0.161 0.755 2 747012 1827 1983 157 1.468 0.447 0.186 2.619 0.181 0.725 3 747021 1782 1983 202 1.528 0.535 0.128 2.519 0.180 0.760 4 747022 1786 1983 198 1.429 0.379 0.178 2.692 0.174 0.642 5 747031 1823 1983 161 1.494 0.394 0.162 2.354 0.142 0.742 6 747032 1836 1983 148 1.771 0.432 0.396 2.890 0.144 0.740 7 747041 1824 1983 160 1.288 0.396 1.047 4.508 0.143 0.788 8 747042 1831 1983 153 1.450 0.528 1.068 3.719 0.146 0.863 9 747051 1822 1983 162 1.128 0.243 0.354 2.772 0.132 0.711 10 747052 1834 1983 150 1.252 0.323 1.261 4.410 0.144 0.791 11 747061 1803 1981 179 1.496 0.608 0.178 1.873 0.161 0.876 12 747062 1817 1983 167 1.378 0.544 0.237 2.215 0.148 0.894 13 747071 1805 1983 179 0.993 0.416 0.350 1.693 0.136 0.909 14 747072 1787 1983 197 1.074 0.460 0.444 3.242 0.128 0.885 15 747081 1801 1983 183 0.822 0.337 0.025 2.025 0.167 0.872 16 747082 1815 1983 169 0.842 0.261 0.246 2.589 0.131 0.881 17 747091 1790 1983 194 1.166 0.260 0.615 3.953 0.157 0.590 18 747092 1799 1983 185 1.070 0.265 0.281 3.726 0.146 0.731 19 747101 1805 1983 179 1.261 0.297 0.314 2.941 0.144 0.723 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 747102 1792 1983 192 1.123 0.220 0.573 3.135 0.156 0.518 21 747111 1795 1983 189 1.523 0.805 0.666 2.394 0.147 0.921 22 747112 1786 1983 198 1.561 0.615 1.583 6.091 0.131 0.903 23 747121 1853 1983 131 1.500 0.519 0.967 4.851 0.135 0.844 24 747122 1850 1983 134 1.374 0.360 0.772 2.929 0.110 0.868 25 747131 1809 1983 175 1.611 0.616 0.053 2.510 0.173 0.850 26 747132 1828 1983 156 1.666 0.573 0.276 2.336 0.137 0.845 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1782 TO 1983 202 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 167 1.344 0.443 0.554 3.338 0.148 0.793 STANDARD DEVIATION 21 0.255 0.152 0.503 1.667 0.017 0.104 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 165 1.404 0.424 0.352 2.831 0.145 0.817 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 30 0.395 0.221 0.585 1.332 0.025 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 123 0.822 0.220 0.025 1.693 0.110 0.518 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 153 1.128 0.323 0.186 2.394 0.136 0.731 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 183 1.523 0.544 0.772 3.726 0.161 0.876 MAXIMUM VALUE 202 1.771 0.805 2.044 9.817 0.181 0.921 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.143 0.360 0.020 -0.073 2.305 -0.639 0.934 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.639 SERIES 747061 AND 747122 132 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.934 SERIES 747071 AND 747072 179 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.16 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 91. 276. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.245 0.277 0.348 0.270 0.204 SDEV 0.284 0.262 0.361 0.308 0.375 SERR 0.030 0.016 0.020 0.017 0.021 EPS 0.878 0.907 0.933 0.906 0.870 NSS 22.3 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1782 1983 202 1.340 0.239 1.191 6.107 0.107 0.637 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.261 0.225 0.186 53 149 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.40 1.00 1.07 1.47 4.27 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 172. 32. 131. 157. 189. 202. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.633 0.607 0.570 0.512 0.531 0.510 0.467 0.385 0.429 0.312 PACF 0.633 0.343 0.189 0.062 0.148 0.091 0.005 -0.118 0.109 -0.144 95% C.L. 0.141 0.189 0.224 0.251 0.271 0.291 0.308 0.322 0.331 0.342 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.558 0.298 0.211 0.086 0.013 0.131 0.150 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 747011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00829044 0.99024618 2 747012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00229098 1.64914012 3 747021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00298323 1.83106542 4 747022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00172519 1.60115159 5 747031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00504046 1.90225232 6 747032 1 0.41360578 0.03742778 0.00000000 1.69768667 7 747041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00384500 0.97866511 8 747042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00708952 0.90443414 9 747051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00060380 1.07875311 10 747052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00317449 1.01225948 11 747061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00066805 1.55587852 12 747062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00784983 2.03728962 13 747071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00642188 1.57087433 14 747072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00683454 1.75042629 15 747081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00497331 1.27940249 16 747082 1 0.90682203 0.00659160 0.00000000 0.29752955 17 747091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018291 1.20341837 18 747092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00164700 1.22306287 19 747101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00294246 0.99612832 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 747102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00092547 1.03329623 21 747111 1 2.62591982 0.01772631 0.00000000 0.58557039 22 747112 1 2.34940386 0.03251579 0.00000000 1.20207036 23 747121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00974649 0.85703701 24 747122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00634295 0.94535857 25 747131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00268047 1.37497532 26 747132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00433432 1.32546067 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 747011 1820 1983 164 0.997 0.305 2.255 12.078 0.160 0.629 2 747012 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.297 0.222 2.800 0.180 0.699 3 747021 1782 1983 202 0.999 0.351 0.606 3.013 0.179 0.759 4 747022 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.264 0.549 3.075 0.174 0.648 5 747031 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.220 0.570 4.102 0.141 0.675 6 747032 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.243 0.699 3.448 0.143 0.737 7 747041 1824 1983 160 1.002 0.261 0.274 4.146 0.142 0.704 8 747042 1831 1983 153 1.003 0.271 0.225 3.746 0.145 0.753 9 747051 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.213 0.255 2.627 0.131 0.698 10 747052 1834 1983 150 0.999 0.222 1.037 4.277 0.143 0.699 11 747061 1803 1981 179 1.000 0.406 0.184 1.858 0.160 0.873 12 747062 1817 1983 167 0.995 0.275 0.070 2.517 0.147 0.789 13 747071 1805 1983 179 1.019 0.373 3.160 16.129 0.135 0.802 14 747072 1787 1983 197 1.014 0.324 2.363 11.749 0.127 0.798 15 747081 1801 1983 183 0.985 0.235 0.076 2.533 0.167 0.615 16 747082 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.243 0.153 2.713 0.131 0.796 17 747091 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.211 0.406 3.735 0.155 0.558 18 747092 1799 1983 185 0.999 0.237 0.430 3.853 0.145 0.698 19 747101 1805 1983 179 0.999 0.200 0.171 2.702 0.143 0.605 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 747102 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.189 0.414 2.782 0.155 0.482 21 747111 1795 1983 189 1.001 0.187 -0.029 3.501 0.142 0.556 22 747112 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.203 0.077 3.664 0.130 0.642 23 747121 1853 1983 131 0.999 0.234 0.892 3.997 0.134 0.685 24 747122 1850 1983 134 1.001 0.184 0.132 2.931 0.109 0.719 25 747131 1809 1983 175 1.001 0.367 -0.179 2.624 0.172 0.822 26 747132 1828 1983 156 1.002 0.324 0.085 2.620 0.136 0.809 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 172 1.001 0.263 0.581 4.355 0.147 0.702 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.006 0.063 0.804 3.429 0.017 0.094 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 172 1.000 0.243 0.265 3.261 0.143 0.699 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 32 0.002 0.092 0.474 1.295 0.025 0.147 MINIMUM VALUE 131 0.985 0.184 -0.179 1.858 0.109 0.482 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 0.999 0.213 0.132 2.702 0.135 0.642 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 1.001 0.305 0.606 3.997 0.160 0.789 MAXIMUM VALUE 202 1.019 0.406 3.160 16.129 0.180 0.873 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 747011 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 747012 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 747021 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 747022 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 747031 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 747032 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 747041 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 747042 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 747051 -67 108 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 747052 -67 100 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 747061 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 747062 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 747071 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 747072 -67 131 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 747081 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 747082 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 747091 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 747092 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 747101 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 747102 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 747111 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 747112 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 747121 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 747122 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 747131 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 747132 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 747011 1820 1983 164 0.995 0.263 1.863 11.193 0.159 0.566 2 747012 1827 1983 157 0.993 0.253 0.225 4.033 0.179 0.609 3 747021 1782 1983 202 0.982 0.237 0.412 2.820 0.178 0.545 4 747022 1786 1983 198 0.992 0.206 0.544 3.021 0.174 0.442 5 747031 1823 1983 161 0.998 0.205 0.460 3.999 0.141 0.623 6 747032 1836 1983 148 0.996 0.211 0.247 3.117 0.142 0.656 7 747041 1824 1983 160 0.997 0.237 1.190 8.313 0.142 0.620 8 747042 1831 1983 153 0.994 0.236 0.642 6.076 0.145 0.684 9 747051 1822 1983 162 0.996 0.175 0.297 2.788 0.130 0.573 10 747052 1834 1983 150 0.996 0.178 0.527 3.401 0.142 0.534 11 747061 1803 1981 179 0.996 0.267 0.840 4.881 0.160 0.604 12 747062 1817 1983 167 0.992 0.211 0.196 3.774 0.147 0.639 13 747071 1805 1983 179 0.991 0.180 0.999 6.027 0.135 0.522 14 747072 1787 1983 197 0.991 0.203 0.337 4.829 0.127 0.645 15 747081 1801 1983 183 0.997 0.168 -0.281 3.238 0.167 0.212 16 747082 1815 1983 169 0.992 0.163 -0.499 4.076 0.130 0.539 17 747091 1790 1983 194 0.999 0.175 0.811 6.386 0.155 0.288 18 747092 1799 1983 185 0.998 0.209 0.454 3.755 0.145 0.595 19 747101 1805 1983 179 0.998 0.184 0.107 2.823 0.143 0.542 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 747102 1792 1983 192 0.999 0.177 0.378 3.009 0.156 0.406 21 747111 1795 1983 189 0.998 0.159 -0.276 3.606 0.142 0.397 22 747112 1786 1983 198 0.996 0.174 0.177 4.483 0.130 0.509 23 747121 1853 1983 131 0.995 0.195 0.885 5.002 0.134 0.573 24 747122 1850 1983 134 0.996 0.149 0.135 3.406 0.109 0.575 25 747131 1809 1983 175 0.984 0.268 -0.070 3.623 0.171 0.715 26 747132 1828 1983 156 0.988 0.227 0.455 3.220 0.136 0.668 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 172 0.994 0.204 0.425 4.419 0.147 0.549 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.004 0.035 0.493 1.917 0.017 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 172 0.996 0.204 0.395 3.765 0.143 0.573 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 32 0.005 0.060 0.464 1.661 0.024 0.102 MINIMUM VALUE 131 0.982 0.149 -0.499 2.788 0.109 0.212 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 0.992 0.175 0.177 3.220 0.135 0.522 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 0.997 0.236 0.642 4.881 0.159 0.623 MAXIMUM VALUE 202 0.999 0.268 1.863 11.193 0.179 0.715 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.256 0.188 0.010 0.082 3.272 -0.219 0.799 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.219 SERIES 747032 AND 747122 134 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.799 SERIES 747131 AND 747132 156 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.16 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 91. 276. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.294 0.330 0.336 0.311 0.278 SDEV 0.227 0.204 0.226 0.257 0.278 SERR 0.024 0.012 0.013 0.014 0.015 EPS 0.903 0.926 0.929 0.922 0.909 NSS 22.3 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1782 1983 202 0.990 0.108 0.048 3.056 0.100 0.358 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.249 0.130 0.034 60 142 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.48 1.00 1.04 1.52 5.28 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.356 0.207 0.164 0.168 0.186 0.143 0.105 0.064 0.193 0.143 PACF 0.356 0.091 0.074 0.088 0.097 0.029 0.009 -0.018 0.161 0.010 95% C.L. 0.141 0.158 0.163 0.166 0.169 0.173 0.176 0.177 0.177 0.182 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.135 0.357 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.412 0.242 0.192 0.226 0.234 0.168 0.111 0.070 0.166 0.145 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.412 2 0.376 0.087 3 0.369 0.057 0.079 4 0.358 0.050 0.030 0.133 5 0.345 0.047 0.025 0.097 0.100 6 0.344 0.046 0.025 0.097 0.097 0.009 7 0.344 0.047 0.026 0.097 0.098 0.013 -0.012 8 0.344 0.047 0.029 0.099 0.098 0.015 -0.003 -0.027 9 0.347 0.048 0.027 0.088 0.087 0.011 -0.008 -0.068 0.119 10 0.345 0.049 0.027 0.088 0.085 0.010 -0.009 -0.069 0.114 0.016 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1447.98 1412.48 1412.94 1413.66 1412.06 1412.01 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1413.99 1415.97 1417.82 1416.93 1418.88 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.412 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 16.94 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 120.40 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.412 0.169 0.070 0.029 0.012 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 747011 1 0.350 0.568 2 747012 1 0.375 0.610 3 747021 1 0.333 0.547 4 747022 1 0.213 0.443 5 747031 1 0.403 0.624 6 747032 1 0.484 0.656 7 747041 1 0.388 0.622 8 747042 1 0.473 0.687 9 747051 1 0.346 0.576 10 747052 1 0.321 0.540 11 747061 1 0.472 0.640 12 747062 1 0.446 0.642 13 747071 1 0.319 0.543 14 747072 1 0.458 0.676 15 747081 1 0.050 0.213 16 747082 1 0.297 0.539 17 747091 1 0.096 0.309 18 747092 1 0.380 0.605 19 747101 1 0.295 0.543 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 747102 1 0.169 0.407 21 747111 1 0.167 0.397 22 747112 1 0.297 0.516 23 747121 1 0.332 0.576 24 747122 1 0.340 0.579 25 747131 1 0.552 0.719 26 747132 1 0.453 0.671 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.339 0.556 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.122 0.119 MEDIAN 1 0.343 0.576 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.149 0.101 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.050 0.213 LOWER HINGE 1 0.297 0.539 UPPER HINGE 1 0.446 0.640 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.552 0.719 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 747011 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.216 2.681 20.293 0.206 -0.114 2 747012 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.200 0.494 5.124 0.220 -0.032 3 747021 1782 1983 202 1.000 0.199 0.395 3.717 0.230 -0.120 4 747022 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.185 0.330 2.943 0.211 -0.064 5 747031 1823 1983 161 1.000 0.160 0.457 4.772 0.181 -0.096 6 747032 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.159 0.070 3.200 0.200 -0.198 7 747041 1824 1983 160 1.000 0.186 -0.452 8.486 0.192 0.006 8 747042 1831 1983 153 1.000 0.171 0.730 4.482 0.191 -0.029 9 747051 1822 1983 162 1.000 0.143 0.167 3.149 0.166 -0.084 10 747052 1834 1983 150 1.000 0.149 0.168 2.915 0.185 -0.116 11 747061 1803 1981 179 1.000 0.200 0.463 4.908 0.224 -0.234 12 747062 1817 1983 167 1.000 0.162 0.236 3.120 0.192 -0.149 13 747071 1805 1983 179 1.000 0.151 0.189 4.442 0.174 -0.075 14 747072 1787 1983 197 1.000 0.148 0.076 4.335 0.166 -0.029 15 747081 1801 1983 183 1.000 0.164 -0.261 3.550 0.184 -0.014 16 747082 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.137 -0.323 4.159 0.157 -0.049 17 747091 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.166 0.703 5.970 0.176 -0.017 18 747092 1799 1983 185 1.000 0.166 0.221 3.738 0.188 -0.078 19 747101 1805 1983 179 1.000 0.155 0.258 3.276 0.179 -0.009 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 747102 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.161 0.275 3.172 0.185 -0.025 21 747111 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.146 -0.208 3.925 0.165 -0.042 22 747112 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.149 -0.041 4.905 0.167 -0.109 23 747121 1853 1983 131 1.000 0.159 1.044 6.211 0.165 -0.007 24 747122 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.122 0.057 3.861 0.140 -0.053 25 747131 1809 1983 175 1.000 0.185 0.252 3.995 0.222 -0.197 26 747132 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.168 0.612 5.254 0.176 -0.054 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 172 1.000 0.166 0.330 4.919 0.186 -0.076 STANDARD DEVIATION 19 0.000 0.022 0.587 3.371 0.022 0.064 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 172 1.000 0.162 0.244 4.077 0.185 -0.059 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 32 0.000 0.036 0.393 1.632 0.033 0.085 MINIMUM VALUE 131 1.000 0.122 -0.452 2.915 0.140 -0.234 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 157 1.000 0.149 0.070 3.276 0.167 -0.114 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 189 1.000 0.185 0.463 4.908 0.200 -0.029 MAXIMUM VALUE 202 1.000 0.216 2.681 20.293 0.230 0.006 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.341 0.115 0.006 0.458 3.775 0.035 0.729 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.035 SERIES 747012 AND 747061 155 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.729 SERIES 747101 AND 747102 179 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.16 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 91. 276. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.380 0.455 0.420 0.376 0.335 SDEV 0.181 0.140 0.164 0.161 0.170 SERR 0.019 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.932 0.955 0.950 0.940 0.929 NSS 22.3 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1782 1983 202 0.996 0.103 -0.049 2.920 0.129 -0.241 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.147 0.069 0.056 76 126 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.62 1.00 1.05 1.67 279.75 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.240 -0.023 -0.015 0.020 0.086 0.015 0.017 -0.114 0.177 -0.005 PACF -0.240 -0.086 -0.045 0.003 0.096 0.068 0.054 -0.097 0.133 0.056 95% C.L. 0.141 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.150 0.150 0.150 0.152 0.156 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.065 -0.240 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.020 -0.091 -0.018 0.040 0.105 0.043 -0.006 -0.078 0.169 0.045 PACF -0.020 -0.091 -0.022 0.031 0.104 0.055 0.017 -0.069 0.163 0.027 95% C.L. 0.141 0.141 0.142 0.142 0.142 0.144 0.144 0.144 0.145 0.149 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.009 -0.020 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1782 1983 202 0.996 0.107 -0.009 2.908 0.099 0.365 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.364 0.077 0.049 0.098 0.146 0.096 0.035 0.014 0.172 0.118 PACF 0.364 -0.064 0.049 0.078 0.096 0.011 -0.006 -0.003 0.180 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.141 0.158 0.159 0.159 0.160 0.163 0.164 0.164 0.164 0.168 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.137 0.364 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES