RUN: MT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: MT108L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: MT108L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 692 1 Highland Fire Outlook WIDTH_LATE PCEN - 692 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2730 4545-11232 1496 1983 692 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 692012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 16 IN 3 GAPS / 1813 1817 / 1914 1919 / 1926 1930 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 692021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1874 1878 / 1909 1913 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 692041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 3 GAPS / 1842 1846 / 1919 1923 / 1930 1934 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 692042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1905 1910 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 692051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1814 1818 / 1941 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 692052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 23 IN 3 GAPS / 1729 1733 / 1851 1863 / 1971 1975 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 692061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1822 1826 / 1847 1851 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 692062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 16 IN 3 GAPS / 1688 1692 / 1758 1763 / 1917 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 692072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1834 1838 / 1967 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 692081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 22 IN 4 GAPS / 1659 1663 / 1720 1726 / 1794 1798 / 1957 1961 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 692082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 2 GAPS / 1518 1518 / 1713 1717 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 692131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 19 IN 3 GAPS / 1759 1765 / 1850 1855 / 1935 1940 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 692132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 12 IN 2 GAPS / 1784 1790 / 1883 1887 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 692011 1539 1983 445 0.090 0.034 1.968 8.323 0.182 0.689 2 692012 1523 1983 461 0.116 0.078 2.555 10.776 0.161 0.855 3 692021 1592 1983 392 0.115 0.030 1.215 5.536 0.177 0.510 4 692022 1626 1983 358 0.144 0.036 0.921 6.148 0.160 0.540 5 692031 1795 1983 189 0.103 0.028 0.465 3.237 0.197 0.454 6 692032 1810 1983 174 0.131 0.048 2.309 11.287 0.218 0.556 7 692041 1630 1983 354 0.085 0.038 3.198 22.018 0.210 0.656 8 692042 1654 1983 330 0.085 0.031 1.051 4.012 0.184 0.748 9 692051 1646 1983 338 0.091 0.036 1.359 4.641 0.175 0.811 10 692052 1654 1983 330 0.067 0.027 1.543 7.000 0.203 0.731 11 692061 1654 1983 330 0.082 0.025 1.868 6.972 0.144 0.775 12 692062 1635 1983 349 0.078 0.034 3.313 16.464 0.180 0.717 13 692071 1613 1983 371 0.097 0.041 2.836 12.220 0.158 0.803 14 692072 1614 1983 370 0.098 0.050 3.782 29.079 0.190 0.689 15 692081 1496 1983 488 0.105 0.043 1.263 4.404 0.191 0.761 16 692082 1510 1983 474 0.097 0.047 2.577 12.299 0.177 0.734 17 692091 1682 1983 302 0.096 0.033 2.425 10.923 0.182 0.650 18 692092 1815 1983 169 0.100 0.028 1.709 6.259 0.189 0.439 19 692101 1789 1983 195 0.132 0.043 1.146 5.339 0.229 0.582 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 692102 1780 1983 204 0.162 0.060 1.198 5.000 0.252 0.619 21 692111 1737 1983 247 0.117 0.030 0.957 4.074 0.217 0.328 22 692112 1722 1983 262 0.128 0.035 1.189 5.434 0.198 0.539 23 692121 1669 1983 315 0.123 0.059 3.626 21.302 0.211 0.618 24 692122 1660 1983 324 0.143 0.048 2.201 11.883 0.168 0.650 25 692131 1660 1983 324 0.083 0.039 1.900 7.710 0.196 0.730 26 692132 1619 1983 365 0.089 0.032 1.853 8.135 0.188 0.562 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1496 TO 1983 488 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 319 0.106 0.040 1.940 9.634 0.190 0.644 STANDARD DEVIATION 86 0.023 0.012 0.894 6.369 0.024 0.128 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 324 0.099 0.036 1.860 7.355 0.189 0.653 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 98 0.034 0.016 1.357 6.544 0.026 0.178 MINIMUM VALUE 169 0.067 0.025 0.465 3.237 0.144 0.328 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 0.089 0.031 1.198 5.339 0.177 0.556 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 360 0.123 0.047 2.555 11.883 0.203 0.734 MAXIMUM VALUE 468 0.162 0.078 3.782 29.079 0.252 0.855 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.299 0.192 0.011 0.226 2.607 -0.167 0.763 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.167 SERIES 692032 AND 692132 174 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.763 SERIES 692071 AND 692072 370 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.20 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1550. 1575. 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. CORR 3. 6. 6. 10. 28. 66. 153. 171. 190. 210. RBAR 0.538 0.485 0.158 0.204 0.182 0.133 0.307 0.226 0.141 0.195 SDEV 0.024 0.113 0.124 0.174 0.246 0.233 0.242 0.219 0.201 0.194 SERR 0.014 0.046 0.051 0.055 0.047 0.029 0.020 0.017 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.812 0.797 0.495 0.681 0.747 0.726 0.894 0.853 0.773 0.840 NSS 3.7 4.2 5.2 8.3 13.2 17.3 18.9 19.8 20.8 21.7 YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 210. 276. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.237 0.240 0.261 0.138 0.128 0.112 0.080 SDEV 0.196 0.193 0.157 0.170 0.193 0.171 0.189 SERR 0.014 0.012 0.009 0.009 0.011 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.880 0.890 0.902 0.807 0.792 0.767 0.693 NSS 23.7 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1496 1983 488 0.112 0.039 1.801 6.127 0.125 0.852 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.436 0.197 0.012 208 280 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.45 0.95 1.00 1.13 2.07 12.59 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 330. 108. 169. 262. 370. 488. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.850 0.802 0.802 0.778 0.762 0.726 0.694 0.676 0.645 0.599 PACF 0.850 0.285 0.283 0.103 0.097 -0.040 -0.037 -0.002 -0.037 -0.100 95% C.L. 0.091 0.142 0.175 0.203 0.226 0.246 0.263 0.278 0.291 0.302 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.777 0.472 0.081 0.220 0.063 0.105 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 692011 1 0.09598661 0.00815680 0.00000000 0.06474677 2 692012 1 0.29629418 0.01631591 0.00000000 0.07588743 3 692021 1 0.01599015 0.00631251 0.00000000 0.10835764 4 692022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00012876 0.16755411 5 692031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002433 0.10091580 6 692032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00045651 0.17051890 7 692041 1 0.11327541 0.01745326 0.00000000 0.06567092 8 692042 1 0.09839968 0.00852983 0.00000000 0.05210635 9 692051 1 0.11080761 0.00857860 0.00000000 0.05478806 10 692052 1 0.09385861 0.02311940 0.00000000 0.05431750 11 692061 1 0.10175597 0.03097178 0.00000000 0.07218784 12 692062 1 0.14524588 0.03351715 0.00000000 0.06569054 13 692071 1 0.18918449 0.03252362 0.00000000 0.08187993 14 692072 1 0.17282699 0.02297833 0.00000000 0.07796252 15 692081 1 0.11459152 0.00436329 0.00000000 0.05728753 16 692082 1 0.20939182 0.02731743 0.00000000 0.08135016 17 692091 1 0.17587771 0.08766362 0.00000000 0.08943840 18 692092 1 0.13761985 0.12759803 0.00000000 0.09360240 19 692101 1 0.09693489 0.01278253 0.00000000 0.09614615 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 692102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00044500 0.20752391 21 692111 1 0.03877134 0.02053818 0.00000000 0.10952770 22 692112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003708 0.13323507 23 692121 1 0.27921942 0.05994631 0.00000000 0.10908084 24 692122 1 0.15830322 0.05334796 0.00000000 0.13383065 25 692131 1 0.10766871 0.01054464 0.00000000 0.05175744 26 692132 1 0.05423463 0.01120045 0.00000000 0.07585894 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 692011 1539 1983 445 1.000 0.240 2.109 12.173 0.182 0.352 2 692012 1523 1983 461 0.999 0.304 2.749 15.918 0.161 0.641 3 692021 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.263 1.390 6.534 0.180 0.486 4 692022 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.239 1.746 11.365 0.159 0.473 5 692031 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.267 0.477 3.262 0.196 0.448 6 692032 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.301 2.166 11.353 0.217 0.382 7 692041 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.265 0.666 5.260 0.208 0.433 8 692042 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.206 0.554 3.948 0.186 0.261 9 692051 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.215 0.692 4.658 0.172 0.435 10 692052 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.251 0.329 3.311 0.207 0.429 11 692061 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.173 0.757 4.401 0.142 0.348 12 692062 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.195 0.717 6.111 0.176 0.226 13 692071 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.197 1.564 10.813 0.158 0.354 14 692072 1614 1983 370 1.000 0.291 2.530 14.915 0.192 0.460 15 692081 1496 1983 488 1.000 0.271 0.753 5.176 0.190 0.457 16 692082 1510 1983 474 1.000 0.300 2.247 15.867 0.178 0.502 17 692091 1682 1983 302 1.000 0.248 1.483 8.416 0.182 0.418 18 692092 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.224 1.717 8.439 0.189 0.041 19 692101 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.267 0.827 4.147 0.228 0.373 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 692102 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.313 0.667 3.756 0.251 0.493 21 692111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.245 0.998 4.242 0.217 0.245 22 692112 1722 1983 262 1.000 0.271 1.208 5.555 0.197 0.536 23 692121 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.350 6.548 76.860 0.211 0.323 24 692122 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.292 2.841 22.034 0.168 0.538 25 692131 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.286 1.914 10.688 0.196 0.369 26 692132 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.301 1.270 5.218 0.187 0.514 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 325 1.000 0.261 1.574 10.939 0.190 0.405 STANDARD DEVIATION 90 0.000 0.042 1.255 14.295 0.024 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 330 1.000 0.266 1.330 6.322 0.188 0.431 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 108 0.000 0.054 1.392 6.964 0.031 0.134 MINIMUM VALUE 169 0.999 0.173 0.329 3.262 0.142 0.041 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 1.000 0.239 0.717 4.401 0.176 0.352 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 370 1.000 0.292 2.109 11.365 0.207 0.486 MAXIMUM VALUE 488 1.000 0.350 6.548 76.860 0.251 0.641 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 692011 -67 298 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 692012 -67 308 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 692021 -67 262 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 692022 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 692031 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 692032 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 692041 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 692042 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 692051 -67 226 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 692052 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 692061 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 692062 -67 233 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 692071 -67 248 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 692072 -67 247 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 692081 -67 326 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 692082 -67 317 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 692091 -67 202 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 692092 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 692101 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 692102 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 692111 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 692112 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 692121 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 692122 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 692131 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 692132 -67 244 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 692011 1539 1983 445 0.999 0.236 2.163 12.418 0.182 0.328 2 692012 1523 1983 461 0.999 0.291 2.529 14.620 0.161 0.607 3 692021 1592 1983 392 0.998 0.233 1.220 6.283 0.180 0.347 4 692022 1626 1983 358 0.999 0.234 2.170 13.647 0.159 0.435 5 692031 1795 1983 189 0.996 0.246 0.460 3.758 0.196 0.361 6 692032 1810 1983 174 0.999 0.297 2.216 11.624 0.217 0.366 7 692041 1630 1983 354 0.997 0.249 0.910 7.094 0.209 0.344 8 692042 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.205 0.578 4.146 0.186 0.255 9 692051 1646 1983 338 0.999 0.205 0.536 4.399 0.172 0.387 10 692052 1654 1983 330 0.999 0.240 0.313 3.297 0.207 0.372 11 692061 1654 1983 330 0.999 0.167 0.775 4.537 0.142 0.308 12 692062 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.191 0.722 6.253 0.176 0.195 13 692071 1613 1983 371 0.999 0.191 1.534 10.330 0.158 0.317 14 692072 1614 1983 370 0.998 0.269 2.495 14.751 0.192 0.373 15 692081 1496 1983 488 0.999 0.265 0.831 6.037 0.190 0.421 16 692082 1510 1983 474 0.998 0.266 2.718 22.372 0.178 0.373 17 692091 1682 1983 302 1.000 0.234 2.092 14.185 0.182 0.326 18 692092 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.223 2.214 11.227 0.189 -0.011 19 692101 1789 1983 195 0.999 0.263 0.782 3.928 0.228 0.359 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 692102 1780 1983 204 0.997 0.298 0.618 3.606 0.251 0.441 21 692111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.242 1.017 4.441 0.217 0.228 22 692112 1722 1983 262 0.996 0.231 1.011 4.676 0.197 0.363 23 692121 1669 1983 315 0.999 0.354 7.411 91.510 0.211 0.306 24 692122 1660 1983 324 0.998 0.239 2.744 22.193 0.168 0.386 25 692131 1660 1983 324 0.999 0.278 1.939 10.749 0.196 0.343 26 692132 1619 1983 365 0.997 0.265 1.329 5.965 0.187 0.389 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 325 0.999 0.247 1.666 12.233 0.190 0.343 STANDARD DEVIATION 90 0.001 0.039 1.412 17.072 0.024 0.105 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 330 0.999 0.241 1.275 6.689 0.188 0.360 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 108 0.002 0.035 1.440 9.205 0.031 0.068 MINIMUM VALUE 169 0.996 0.167 0.313 3.297 0.142 -0.011 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 0.998 0.231 0.775 4.441 0.176 0.317 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 370 0.999 0.266 2.214 13.647 0.207 0.386 MAXIMUM VALUE 488 1.000 0.354 7.411 91.510 0.251 0.607 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.148 0.101 0.006 0.908 6.541 -0.138 0.738 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.138 SERIES 692052 AND 692092 169 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.738 SERIES 692121 AND 692122 315 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.20 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1550. 1575. 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. CORR 3. 6. 6. 10. 28. 66. 153. 171. 190. 210. RBAR 0.316 0.341 0.205 0.204 0.178 0.122 0.207 0.169 0.137 0.189 SDEV 0.164 0.205 0.096 0.172 0.185 0.213 0.220 0.189 0.199 0.189 SERR 0.095 0.084 0.039 0.055 0.035 0.026 0.018 0.014 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.633 0.683 0.575 0.681 0.741 0.706 0.831 0.801 0.768 0.835 NSS 3.7 4.2 5.2 8.3 13.2 17.3 18.9 19.8 20.8 21.7 YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 210. 276. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.240 0.230 0.215 0.151 0.127 0.115 0.082 SDEV 0.192 0.185 0.158 0.170 0.179 0.162 0.176 SERR 0.013 0.011 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.882 0.884 0.877 0.822 0.791 0.772 0.700 NSS 23.7 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1496 1983 488 0.972 0.148 0.577 5.160 0.129 0.377 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.490 0.298 -0.103 158 330 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.83 1.00 1.13 1.96 12.32 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.376 0.254 0.252 0.202 0.157 0.130 0.021 0.051 0.020 -0.044 PACF 0.376 0.132 0.142 0.060 0.027 0.017 -0.095 0.023 -0.026 -0.063 95% C.L. 0.091 0.103 0.108 0.112 0.115 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.118 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.183 0.295 0.082 0.128 0.070 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.242 0.187 0.153 0.202 0.109 0.049 -0.002 0.034 0.013 -0.002 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.242 2 0.209 0.136 3 0.197 0.118 0.087 4 0.185 0.102 0.060 0.140 5 0.184 0.101 0.058 0.138 0.012 6 0.184 0.105 0.060 0.141 0.018 -0.032 7 0.182 0.106 0.068 0.145 0.024 -0.022 -0.057 8 0.182 0.107 0.068 0.144 0.023 -0.023 -0.059 0.007 9 0.183 0.106 0.068 0.144 0.024 -0.022 -0.058 0.008 -0.005 10 0.182 0.106 0.068 0.144 0.024 -0.022 -0.058 0.009 -0.004 -0.005 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3735.04 3707.51 3700.34 3698.61 3690.94 3692.88 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3694.37 3694.75 3696.72 3698.71 3700.70 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.185 0.102 0.060 0.140 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 10.13 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 111.27 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.185 0.136 0.104 0.184 0.079 0.058 0.044 0.045 0.027 0.0204 0.015 0.013 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.0013 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 692011 4 0.134 0.345 -0.078 0.098 0.020 2 692012 4 0.422 0.430 0.227 0.034 0.055 3 692021 4 0.169 0.257 0.190 0.070 0.011 4 692022 4 0.231 0.406 0.087 0.021 -0.102 5 692031 4 0.191 0.261 0.203 0.023 0.090 6 692032 4 0.226 0.303 0.322 -0.138 0.014 7 692041 4 0.177 0.240 0.203 0.086 0.029 8 692042 4 0.078 0.263 -0.019 -0.063 0.000 9 692051 4 0.205 0.291 0.079 0.099 0.150 10 692052 4 0.165 0.320 0.073 0.038 0.100 11 692061 4 0.129 0.250 0.086 0.136 0.016 12 692062 4 0.055 0.167 0.089 0.037 0.058 13 692071 4 0.115 0.324 -0.024 -0.013 0.075 14 692072 4 0.166 0.316 0.121 0.034 0.018 15 692081 4 0.256 0.302 0.086 0.068 0.218 16 692082 4 0.176 0.288 0.154 0.091 0.003 17 692091 4 0.109 0.341 -0.048 0.006 0.014 18 692092 4 0.034 -0.007 0.183 -0.019 -0.035 19 692101 4 0.168 0.312 0.145 -0.015 -0.006 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 692102 4 0.221 0.381 0.141 0.039 -0.041 21 692111 4 0.094 0.170 0.100 0.110 0.089 22 692112 4 0.170 0.300 0.156 -0.011 0.077 23 692121 4 0.105 0.275 0.064 0.069 -0.002 24 692122 4 0.175 0.343 0.028 0.041 0.137 25 692131 4 0.159 0.258 0.142 0.103 0.038 26 692132 4 0.261 0.209 0.243 0.138 0.084 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.169 0.283 0.114 0.042 0.043 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.078 0.086 0.094 0.063 0.066 MEDIAN 4 0.168 0.295 0.111 0.038 0.024 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.090 0.067 0.110 0.085 0.081 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.034 -0.007 -0.078 -0.138 -0.102 LOWER HINGE 4 0.115 0.257 0.073 0.006 0.003 UPPER HINGE 4 0.205 0.324 0.183 0.091 0.084 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.422 0.430 0.322 0.138 0.218 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 692011 1539 1983 445 1.000 0.221 2.134 13.470 0.222 -0.002 2 692012 1523 1983 461 1.000 0.221 1.915 12.263 0.208 -0.006 3 692021 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.213 1.661 10.134 0.205 -0.001 4 692022 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.208 2.524 18.769 0.197 -0.016 5 692031 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.221 0.812 5.009 0.224 -0.006 6 692032 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.261 1.596 7.741 0.250 -0.001 7 692041 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.226 1.047 7.828 0.238 -0.001 8 692042 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.198 0.418 4.049 0.217 0.000 9 692051 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.182 0.623 4.903 0.199 -0.009 10 692052 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.219 0.523 3.376 0.244 0.004 11 692061 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.156 0.772 4.409 0.166 -0.001 12 692062 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.186 0.643 6.293 0.193 0.002 13 692071 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.181 1.581 10.668 0.185 -0.007 14 692072 1614 1983 370 1.000 0.247 2.172 13.646 0.230 -0.002 15 692081 1496 1983 488 1.000 0.228 1.441 9.312 0.223 -0.017 16 692082 1510 1983 474 1.000 0.242 3.358 32.235 0.209 0.000 17 692091 1682 1983 302 1.000 0.221 2.329 17.200 0.219 -0.001 18 692092 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.219 2.338 12.406 0.189 -0.001 19 692101 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.243 0.832 3.901 0.260 -0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 692102 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.262 0.730 3.922 0.285 -0.001 21 692111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.231 1.018 4.746 0.239 -0.005 22 692112 1722 1983 262 1.000 0.211 0.703 3.973 0.229 -0.009 23 692121 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.335 8.579114.319 0.240 0.000 24 692122 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.217 3.215 29.314 0.200 -0.003 25 692131 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.255 2.224 14.547 0.229 -0.002 26 692132 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.228 1.577 9.221 0.216 -0.012 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 325 1.000 0.224 1.799 14.525 0.220 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 90 0.000 0.034 1.612 21.659 0.026 0.005 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 330 1.000 0.221 1.579 9.266 0.221 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 108 0.000 0.031 1.452 8.899 0.038 0.006 MINIMUM VALUE 169 1.000 0.156 0.418 3.376 0.166 -0.017 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 1.000 0.211 0.772 4.746 0.200 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 370 1.000 0.242 2.224 13.646 0.238 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 488 1.000 0.335 8.579114.319 0.285 0.004 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.163 0.097 0.005 1.043 7.023 -0.116 0.721 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.116 SERIES 692052 AND 692092 169 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.721 SERIES 692121 AND 692122 315 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.20 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1550. 1575. 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. CORR 3. 6. 6. 10. 28. 66. 153. 171. 190. 210. RBAR 0.304 0.375 0.268 0.227 0.208 0.100 0.194 0.183 0.181 0.233 SDEV 0.153 0.124 0.082 0.163 0.181 0.170 0.187 0.161 0.166 0.177 SERR 0.088 0.051 0.034 0.052 0.034 0.021 0.015 0.012 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.619 0.714 0.657 0.710 0.777 0.659 0.820 0.816 0.821 0.868 NSS 3.7 4.2 5.2 8.3 13.2 17.3 18.9 19.8 20.8 21.7 YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 210. 276. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.272 0.252 0.190 0.155 0.151 0.136 0.110 SDEV 0.178 0.180 0.152 0.160 0.154 0.145 0.146 SERR 0.012 0.011 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.008 EPS 0.899 0.896 0.859 0.827 0.822 0.804 0.762 NSS 23.7 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1496 1983 488 0.985 0.117 0.938 6.122 0.129 -0.020 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.364 0.241 -0.074 159 329 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.82 1.00 1.11 1.93 21.68 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.020 -0.069 0.020 0.007 0.054 0.026 -0.070 0.030 -0.015 -0.080 PACF -0.020 -0.069 0.017 0.003 0.057 0.029 -0.062 0.030 -0.025 -0.079 95% C.L. 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.092 0.092 0.092 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.001 0.004 0.005 0.053 0.029 -0.066 0.025 -0.026 -0.073 PACF 0.000 -0.001 0.004 0.005 0.053 0.029 -0.066 0.025 -0.027 -0.076 95% C.L. 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.003 0.000 -0.001 0.004 0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1496 1983 488 0.984 0.124 0.780 5.469 0.116 0.255 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.255 0.197 0.159 0.214 0.140 0.088 -0.003 0.062 0.000 -0.049 PACF 0.255 0.141 0.087 0.149 0.037 -0.007 -0.083 0.028 -0.042 -0.068 95% C.L. 0.091 0.096 0.099 0.102 0.105 0.107 0.107 0.107 0.108 0.108 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.116 0.192 0.105 0.059 0.155 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES