RUN: MT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: MT108T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: MT108T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 692 1 Highland Fire Outlook DENSITY_LATE PCEN - 692 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2730 4545-11232 1496 1983 692 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 16 692082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1518 1518 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 692011 1539 1983 445 5.990 0.648 0.063 2.840 0.081 0.537 2 692012 1523 1983 461 5.583 0.521 -0.059 2.817 0.080 0.382 3 692021 1592 1983 392 5.717 0.552 -0.124 2.979 0.079 0.454 4 692022 1626 1983 358 5.457 0.719 0.766 3.083 0.067 0.778 5 692031 1795 1983 189 5.985 0.533 -0.574 3.166 0.077 0.456 6 692032 1810 1983 174 6.337 0.594 -0.359 2.771 0.074 0.522 7 692041 1630 1983 354 6.172 0.501 -0.363 3.204 0.056 0.620 8 692042 1654 1983 330 5.868 0.557 -0.564 2.907 0.063 0.650 9 692051 1646 1983 338 5.148 0.513 -0.013 2.549 0.072 0.582 10 692052 1654 1983 330 5.200 0.523 -0.072 2.750 0.064 0.638 11 692061 1654 1983 330 5.092 0.492 0.280 2.467 0.059 0.684 12 692062 1635 1983 349 5.359 0.482 1.152 6.396 0.060 0.611 13 692071 1613 1983 371 6.011 0.551 -0.343 3.149 0.064 0.587 14 692072 1614 1983 370 6.109 0.452 -0.344 3.412 0.062 0.427 15 692081 1496 1983 488 5.340 0.514 0.254 3.029 0.066 0.618 16 692082 1510 1983 474 5.536 0.604 -0.153 2.305 0.063 0.708 17 692091 1682 1983 302 5.521 0.545 -0.155 2.647 0.062 0.679 18 692092 1815 1983 169 5.381 0.471 0.258 4.038 0.070 0.478 19 692101 1789 1983 195 6.023 0.603 -0.764 3.716 0.060 0.717 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 692102 1780 1983 204 6.028 0.467 -0.645 3.339 0.068 0.389 21 692111 1737 1983 247 6.394 0.539 -0.103 3.669 0.062 0.563 22 692112 1722 1983 262 5.993 0.575 -0.216 2.486 0.069 0.586 23 692121 1669 1983 315 6.125 0.416 -0.504 3.380 0.061 0.326 24 692122 1660 1983 324 5.826 0.594 -0.265 2.269 0.063 0.680 25 692131 1660 1983 324 5.842 0.503 -0.004 2.452 0.070 0.459 26 692132 1619 1983 365 5.968 0.609 -0.078 2.884 0.073 0.616 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1496 TO 1983 488 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 325 5.769 0.541 -0.113 3.104 0.067 0.567 STANDARD DEVIATION 89 0.371 0.066 0.420 0.805 0.007 0.117 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 330 5.855 0.536 -0.138 2.943 0.065 0.586 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 108 0.566 0.093 0.355 0.692 0.010 0.190 MINIMUM VALUE 169 5.092 0.416 -0.764 2.269 0.056 0.326 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 5.457 0.501 -0.359 2.647 0.062 0.459 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 370 6.023 0.594 -0.004 3.339 0.072 0.650 MAXIMUM VALUE 488 6.394 0.719 1.152 6.396 0.081 0.778 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.250 0.187 0.010 -0.219 2.368 -0.250 0.616 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.250 SERIES 692022 AND 692112 262 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.616 SERIES 692071 AND 692072 370 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.20 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1550. 1575. 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. CORR 3. 6. 6. 10. 28. 66. 153. 171. 190. 210. RBAR 0.301 0.363 0.480 0.520 0.457 0.505 0.401 0.380 0.330 0.299 SDEV 0.249 0.177 0.169 0.146 0.160 0.161 0.191 0.182 0.211 0.252 SERR 0.144 0.072 0.069 0.046 0.030 0.020 0.015 0.014 0.015 0.017 EPS 0.616 0.703 0.828 0.900 0.918 0.947 0.927 0.924 0.911 0.902 NSS 3.7 4.2 5.2 8.3 13.2 17.3 18.9 19.8 20.8 21.7 YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 210. 276. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.362 0.319 0.265 0.279 0.303 0.307 0.278 SDEV 0.217 0.205 0.199 0.205 0.189 0.194 0.223 SERR 0.015 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.010 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.931 0.923 0.904 0.910 0.919 0.920 0.909 NSS 23.7 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1496 1983 488 5.825 0.347 0.149 3.533 0.049 0.384 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.288 -0.157 1.466 44 444 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.09 0.18 1.00 1.02 1.20 2.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.87 0.99 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 330. 108. 169. 262. 370. 488. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.384 0.364 0.318 0.259 0.279 0.242 0.268 0.248 0.195 0.232 PACF 0.384 0.254 0.146 0.060 0.106 0.052 0.094 0.055 -0.012 0.062 95% C.L. 0.091 0.103 0.113 0.120 0.125 0.130 0.133 0.138 0.141 0.144 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.222 0.249 0.213 0.146 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 692011 1 1.72482705 0.01879382 0.00000000 5.78529024 2 692012 1 0.49059355 0.00952628 0.00000000 5.47272348 3 692021 1 0.67790389 0.00999625 0.00000000 5.54863119 4 692022 1 1.25020051 0.02034819 0.00000000 5.28714323 5 692031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00159064 6.13608456 6 692032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00525092 5.87801552 7 692041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00262564 6.63766146 8 692042 1 3.27323389 0.00155451 0.00000000 3.30999231 9 692051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00218025 4.77820015 10 692052 1 1.26024592 0.00370672 0.00000000 4.47399569 11 692061 1 1.32891941 0.01213885 0.00000000 4.76829672 12 692062 1 1.82367027 0.03316040 0.00000000 5.20448017 13 692071 1 1.26279318 0.00389008 0.00000000 5.34395170 14 692072 1 0.51218396 0.00595927 0.00000000 5.90336704 15 692081 1 1.18549538 0.01230971 0.00000000 5.14403439 16 692082 1 1.57679665 0.00235743 0.00000000 4.58710575 17 692091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00103761 5.36409330 18 692092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00123763 5.48632288 19 692101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00277752 5.75082874 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 692102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00015626 6.04410458 21 692111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00453323 6.95616961 22 692112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00326293 6.42220497 23 692121 1 0.35866600 0.00744663 0.00000000 5.98690367 24 692122 1 1.25732374 0.01102374 0.00000000 5.48539686 25 692131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00166110 6.11190414 26 692132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00372986 6.65007067 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 692011 1539 1983 445 1.000 0.090 -0.330 2.933 0.081 0.327 2 692012 1523 1983 461 1.000 0.091 -0.064 2.885 0.080 0.345 3 692021 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.092 0.029 3.068 0.079 0.404 4 692022 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.124 1.286 4.923 0.067 0.745 5 692031 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.088 -0.535 3.305 0.076 0.442 6 692032 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.085 -0.142 3.476 0.073 0.423 7 692041 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.069 -0.002 3.519 0.056 0.472 8 692042 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.072 -0.178 4.566 0.063 0.357 9 692051 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.091 0.144 3.015 0.072 0.498 10 692052 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.089 0.351 3.905 0.064 0.553 11 692061 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.072 0.240 3.502 0.059 0.418 12 692062 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.064 -0.171 3.700 0.060 0.273 13 692071 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.080 -0.317 3.298 0.064 0.447 14 692072 1614 1983 370 1.000 0.071 -0.333 3.727 0.062 0.377 15 692081 1496 1983 488 1.000 0.081 -0.061 3.056 0.066 0.456 16 692082 1510 1983 474 1.000 0.095 -0.201 2.605 0.063 0.613 17 692091 1682 1983 302 1.000 0.098 0.062 2.946 0.062 0.668 18 692092 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.086 0.113 4.080 0.070 0.455 19 692101 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.097 -0.641 3.674 0.060 0.689 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 692102 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.077 -0.665 3.368 0.068 0.387 21 692111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.067 -0.414 3.507 0.062 0.315 22 692112 1722 1983 262 1.000 0.087 -0.079 2.517 0.069 0.498 23 692121 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.066 -0.520 3.371 0.061 0.290 24 692122 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.087 -0.134 2.667 0.063 0.558 25 692131 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.082 -0.167 2.696 0.070 0.402 26 692132 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.078 -0.179 2.675 0.073 0.345 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 325 1.000 0.084 -0.112 3.346 0.067 0.452 STANDARD DEVIATION 90 0.000 0.013 0.383 0.590 0.007 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 330 1.000 0.086 -0.154 3.337 0.065 0.432 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 108 0.000 0.019 0.359 0.741 0.010 0.141 MINIMUM VALUE 169 1.000 0.064 -0.665 2.517 0.056 0.273 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 1.000 0.072 -0.330 2.933 0.062 0.357 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 370 1.000 0.091 0.029 3.674 0.072 0.498 MAXIMUM VALUE 488 1.000 0.124 1.286 4.923 0.081 0.745 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 692011 -67 298 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 692012 -67 308 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 692021 -67 262 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 692022 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 692031 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 692032 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 692041 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 692042 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 692051 -67 226 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 692052 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 692061 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 692062 -67 233 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 692071 -67 248 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 692072 -67 247 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 692081 -67 326 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 692082 -67 317 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 692091 -67 202 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 692092 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 692101 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 692102 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 692111 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 692112 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 692121 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 692122 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 692131 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 692132 -67 244 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 692011 1539 1983 445 1.000 0.084 -0.281 2.904 0.081 0.213 2 692012 1523 1983 461 1.000 0.088 -0.102 2.978 0.080 0.309 3 692021 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.090 -0.056 3.018 0.079 0.375 4 692022 1626 1983 358 0.999 0.090 0.180 2.951 0.067 0.526 5 692031 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.081 -0.520 3.120 0.076 0.346 6 692032 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.082 -0.164 3.557 0.073 0.380 7 692041 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.067 0.011 3.522 0.056 0.439 8 692042 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.071 -0.148 4.467 0.063 0.336 9 692051 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.089 0.085 2.894 0.072 0.475 10 692052 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.081 0.245 3.454 0.064 0.457 11 692061 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.067 0.445 4.174 0.059 0.339 12 692062 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.063 -0.190 3.732 0.060 0.252 13 692071 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.075 -0.326 3.283 0.064 0.374 14 692072 1614 1983 370 1.000 0.070 -0.357 3.784 0.062 0.365 15 692081 1496 1983 488 1.000 0.080 -0.061 3.078 0.066 0.440 16 692082 1510 1983 474 0.999 0.082 -0.140 2.902 0.063 0.487 17 692091 1682 1983 302 0.999 0.080 0.156 4.125 0.062 0.511 18 692092 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.077 0.041 3.300 0.070 0.333 19 692101 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.077 -0.092 4.927 0.060 0.496 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 692102 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.071 -0.498 3.605 0.068 0.266 21 692111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.063 -0.451 3.695 0.062 0.226 22 692112 1722 1983 262 0.999 0.069 -0.276 2.940 0.069 0.212 23 692121 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.064 -0.535 3.482 0.061 0.238 24 692122 1660 1983 324 0.999 0.066 -0.209 3.241 0.063 0.231 25 692131 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.079 -0.162 2.752 0.070 0.362 26 692132 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.074 -0.192 2.804 0.073 0.282 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 325 1.000 0.076 -0.138 3.411 0.067 0.357 STANDARD DEVIATION 90 0.000 0.008 0.242 0.548 0.007 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 330 1.000 0.077 -0.155 3.291 0.065 0.354 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 108 0.000 0.013 0.292 0.743 0.010 0.174 MINIMUM VALUE 169 0.999 0.063 -0.535 2.752 0.056 0.212 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 1.000 0.069 -0.281 2.951 0.062 0.266 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 370 1.000 0.082 0.011 3.695 0.072 0.440 MAXIMUM VALUE 488 1.000 0.090 0.445 4.927 0.081 0.526 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.279 0.122 0.007 0.178 2.873 -0.081 0.623 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.081 SERIES 692041 AND 692111 247 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.623 SERIES 692011 AND 692012 445 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.20 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1550. 1575. 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. CORR 3. 6. 6. 10. 28. 66. 153. 171. 190. 210. RBAR 0.249 0.372 0.499 0.505 0.462 0.453 0.425 0.389 0.321 0.299 SDEV 0.230 0.193 0.190 0.141 0.144 0.168 0.184 0.181 0.216 0.237 SERR 0.133 0.079 0.078 0.045 0.027 0.021 0.015 0.014 0.016 0.016 EPS 0.553 0.711 0.839 0.895 0.919 0.935 0.933 0.927 0.907 0.903 NSS 3.7 4.2 5.2 8.3 13.2 17.3 18.9 19.8 20.8 21.7 YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 210. 276. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.381 0.334 0.278 0.290 0.308 0.326 0.298 SDEV 0.211 0.188 0.179 0.192 0.180 0.173 0.216 SERR 0.015 0.011 0.010 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.012 EPS 0.936 0.928 0.909 0.914 0.920 0.926 0.917 NSS 23.7 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1496 1983 488 1.000 0.050 -0.491 4.295 0.050 0.121 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.089 -0.038 0.096 114 374 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.10 0.29 1.00 1.05 1.33 6.31 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.120 0.121 0.083 0.005 0.009 -0.049 0.038 -0.006 -0.047 0.009 PACF 0.120 0.108 0.058 -0.023 -0.004 -0.054 0.051 -0.004 -0.050 0.013 95% C.L. 0.091 0.092 0.093 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.029 0.108 0.108 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.121 0.129 0.113 0.017 -0.042 -0.025 -0.036 0.008 0.008 0.085 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.121 2 0.107 0.116 3 0.097 0.106 0.088 4 0.098 0.108 0.090 -0.019 5 0.097 0.114 0.097 -0.013 -0.068 6 0.095 0.114 0.099 -0.010 -0.065 -0.025 7 0.095 0.113 0.099 -0.008 -0.063 -0.024 -0.019 8 0.095 0.114 0.101 -0.007 -0.066 -0.027 -0.022 0.033 9 0.095 0.114 0.102 -0.006 -0.066 -0.029 -0.024 0.031 0.017 10 0.094 0.111 0.104 -0.004 -0.061 -0.028 -0.032 0.021 0.009 0.085 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2858.51 2853.33 2848.76 2846.99 2848.81 2848.57 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2850.25 2852.09 2853.57 2855.43 2853.89 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.097 0.106 0.088 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.53 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.65 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.097 0.116 0.109 0.031 0.025 0.015 0.007 0.004 0.003 0.0013 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 692011 3 0.094 0.155 0.165 0.105 2 692012 3 0.161 0.209 0.188 0.144 3 692021 3 0.234 0.244 0.178 0.193 4 692022 3 0.345 0.373 0.116 0.218 5 692031 3 0.168 0.260 0.165 0.100 6 692032 3 0.186 0.298 0.203 0.018 7 692041 3 0.214 0.371 0.159 -0.004 8 692042 3 0.130 0.296 0.117 0.011 9 692051 3 0.276 0.372 0.081 0.188 10 692052 3 0.254 0.358 0.211 0.009 11 692061 3 0.141 0.277 0.124 0.083 12 692062 3 0.093 0.204 0.118 0.102 13 692071 3 0.207 0.250 0.212 0.129 14 692072 3 0.176 0.275 0.150 0.120 15 692081 3 0.223 0.354 0.140 0.077 16 692082 3 0.307 0.340 0.141 0.199 17 692091 3 0.273 0.450 0.095 0.038 18 692092 3 0.183 0.238 0.242 0.069 19 692101 3 0.252 0.453 0.074 0.020 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 692102 3 0.128 0.186 0.157 0.155 21 692111 3 0.122 0.159 0.114 0.214 22 692112 3 0.070 0.187 0.046 0.135 23 692121 3 0.068 0.215 0.109 -0.016 24 692122 3 0.072 0.196 0.105 0.068 25 692131 3 0.164 0.305 0.097 0.092 26 692132 3 0.127 0.237 0.042 0.204 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.180 0.279 0.136 0.103 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.076 0.084 0.051 0.072 MEDIAN 3 0.172 0.268 0.132 0.101 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.106 0.145 0.060 0.117 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.068 0.155 0.042 -0.016 LOWER HINGE 3 0.127 0.209 0.105 0.038 UPPER HINGE 3 0.234 0.354 0.165 0.155 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.345 0.453 0.242 0.218 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 692011 1539 1983 445 1.000 0.080 -0.282 3.402 0.088 -0.009 2 692012 1523 1983 461 1.000 0.081 -0.263 3.346 0.089 -0.009 3 692021 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.080 -0.132 3.219 0.088 -0.027 4 692022 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.073 0.306 3.348 0.079 -0.016 5 692031 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.075 -0.534 3.069 0.087 0.009 6 692032 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.074 -0.373 3.444 0.084 0.001 7 692041 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.060 0.118 3.691 0.066 0.001 8 692042 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.066 0.044 4.145 0.073 0.002 9 692051 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.076 -0.068 3.319 0.084 -0.014 10 692052 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.070 0.024 3.417 0.076 -0.003 11 692061 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.062 0.386 4.444 0.068 0.003 12 692062 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.060 -0.366 3.939 0.067 -0.003 13 692071 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.067 -0.156 4.228 0.072 0.004 14 692072 1614 1983 370 1.000 0.064 -0.522 3.914 0.070 0.004 15 692081 1496 1983 488 1.000 0.071 -0.098 3.556 0.078 -0.004 16 692082 1510 1983 474 1.000 0.068 -0.124 3.627 0.074 -0.014 17 692091 1682 1983 302 1.000 0.068 0.174 4.329 0.075 -0.002 18 692092 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.069 -0.177 3.027 0.078 -0.001 19 692101 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.067 0.337 5.498 0.075 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 692102 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.067 -0.397 4.182 0.075 -0.010 21 692111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.060 -0.659 4.482 0.067 -0.018 22 692112 1722 1983 262 1.000 0.067 -0.322 3.145 0.075 -0.007 23 692121 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.062 -0.515 3.606 0.067 -0.001 24 692122 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.064 -0.278 3.454 0.070 -0.001 25 692131 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.073 -0.047 2.840 0.082 -0.012 26 692132 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.069 -0.145 2.997 0.080 -0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 325 1.000 0.069 -0.156 3.680 0.076 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 90 0.000 0.006 0.276 0.598 0.007 0.008 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 330 1.000 0.068 -0.150 3.505 0.075 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 108 0.000 0.009 0.391 0.825 0.012 0.010 MINIMUM VALUE 169 1.000 0.060 -0.659 2.840 0.066 -0.027 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 1.000 0.064 -0.366 3.319 0.070 -0.010 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 370 1.000 0.073 0.024 4.145 0.082 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 488 1.000 0.081 0.386 5.498 0.089 0.009 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.346 0.128 0.007 0.136 2.975 0.005 0.719 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.005 SERIES 692041 AND 692111 247 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.719 SERIES 692011 AND 692012 445 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.20 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1550. 1575. 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. CORR 3. 6. 6. 10. 28. 66. 153. 171. 190. 210. RBAR 0.341 0.513 0.623 0.546 0.500 0.509 0.474 0.478 0.417 0.385 SDEV 0.268 0.136 0.114 0.070 0.107 0.157 0.169 0.143 0.185 0.194 SERR 0.155 0.055 0.046 0.022 0.020 0.019 0.014 0.011 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.658 0.814 0.897 0.909 0.930 0.947 0.945 0.948 0.937 0.931 NSS 3.7 4.2 5.2 8.3 13.2 17.3 18.9 19.8 20.8 21.7 YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 210. 276. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.465 0.401 0.323 0.327 0.347 0.326 0.333 SDEV 0.177 0.162 0.148 0.169 0.175 0.160 0.206 SERR 0.012 0.010 0.008 0.009 0.010 0.009 0.011 EPS 0.954 0.945 0.925 0.927 0.933 0.926 0.928 NSS 23.7 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1496 1983 488 1.001 0.048 -0.486 4.603 0.055 -0.143 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.091 -0.035 0.083 120 368 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.45 1.00 1.08 1.52 76.96 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.142 -0.029 -0.062 -0.039 -0.015 -0.062 0.053 -0.013 -0.052 0.029 PACF -0.142 -0.051 -0.075 -0.063 -0.038 -0.083 0.021 -0.016 -0.069 0.007 95% C.L. 0.091 0.092 0.092 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.094 0.094 0.094 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.023 -0.143 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.005 -0.006 -0.017 -0.069 -0.037 -0.072 0.038 -0.018 -0.054 0.021 PACF -0.005 -0.006 -0.017 -0.069 -0.038 -0.074 0.034 -0.025 -0.063 0.010 95% C.L. 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.005 -0.005 -0.006 -0.017 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1496 1983 488 1.001 0.048 -0.477 4.221 0.049 0.099 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.099 0.103 0.073 -0.050 -0.031 -0.076 0.016 -0.030 -0.060 0.010 PACF 0.099 0.094 0.055 -0.073 -0.033 -0.064 0.044 -0.021 -0.057 0.012 95% C.L. 0.091 0.091 0.092 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.022 0.090 0.095 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.44 MINUTES