RUN: MT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: MT108W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: MT108W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 692 1 Highland Fire Outlook WIDTH_RING PCEN - 692 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2730 4545-11232 1496 1983 692 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 16 692082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1518 1518 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 692011 1539 1983 445 0.502 0.218 1.104 3.817 0.177 0.866 2 692012 1523 1983 461 0.523 0.271 1.591 5.608 0.171 0.878 3 692021 1592 1983 392 0.406 0.133 0.471 3.195 0.195 0.728 4 692022 1626 1983 358 0.452 0.154 0.948 4.074 0.199 0.719 5 692031 1795 1983 189 0.556 0.170 -0.220 2.931 0.224 0.655 6 692032 1810 1983 174 0.792 0.226 -0.033 3.110 0.199 0.636 7 692041 1630 1983 354 0.387 0.145 0.196 2.538 0.266 0.667 8 692042 1654 1983 330 0.446 0.174 0.077 2.031 0.238 0.731 9 692051 1646 1983 338 0.403 0.097 0.338 2.830 0.172 0.619 10 692052 1654 1983 330 0.299 0.168 1.597 6.387 0.175 0.918 11 692061 1654 1983 330 0.371 0.128 1.613 6.026 0.160 0.836 12 692062 1635 1983 349 0.344 0.109 1.523 5.220 0.157 0.774 13 692071 1613 1983 371 0.536 0.185 1.510 6.150 0.179 0.775 14 692072 1614 1983 370 0.508 0.245 1.381 4.844 0.173 0.876 15 692081 1496 1983 488 0.402 0.132 1.074 4.589 0.205 0.678 16 692082 1510 1983 474 0.495 0.218 1.443 4.759 0.211 0.821 17 692091 1682 1983 302 0.465 0.206 0.341 2.248 0.187 0.851 18 692092 1815 1983 169 0.580 0.153 0.294 2.991 0.168 0.690 19 692101 1789 1983 195 0.571 0.148 0.133 3.092 0.199 0.543 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 692102 1780 1983 204 0.695 0.178 -0.265 3.311 0.203 0.566 21 692111 1737 1983 247 0.596 0.189 0.205 2.751 0.206 0.651 22 692112 1722 1983 262 0.674 0.201 0.321 3.114 0.208 0.633 23 692121 1669 1983 315 0.525 0.159 0.704 4.848 0.216 0.563 24 692122 1660 1983 324 0.511 0.161 1.086 5.838 0.212 0.598 25 692131 1660 1983 324 0.418 0.167 0.417 3.312 0.200 0.784 26 692132 1619 1983 365 0.420 0.135 0.420 3.386 0.198 0.676 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1496 TO 1983 488 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 325 0.495 0.172 0.703 3.962 0.196 0.721 STANDARD DEVIATION 89 0.113 0.041 0.620 1.308 0.025 0.109 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 330 0.499 0.167 0.446 3.349 0.199 0.705 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 108 0.150 0.056 1.176 1.857 0.033 0.184 MINIMUM VALUE 169 0.299 0.097 -0.265 2.031 0.157 0.543 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 0.406 0.145 0.205 2.991 0.175 0.636 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 370 0.556 0.201 1.381 4.848 0.208 0.821 MAXIMUM VALUE 488 0.792 0.271 1.613 6.387 0.266 0.918 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.302 0.316 0.018 -0.387 2.510 -0.648 0.918 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.648 SERIES 692052 AND 692091 302 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.918 SERIES 692011 AND 692012 445 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.20 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1550. 1575. 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. CORR 3. 6. 6. 10. 28. 66. 153. 171. 190. 210. RBAR 0.514 0.537 0.386 0.480 0.353 0.447 0.471 0.410 0.483 0.442 SDEV 0.132 0.233 0.304 0.262 0.277 0.252 0.201 0.188 0.193 0.180 SERR 0.076 0.095 0.124 0.083 0.052 0.031 0.016 0.014 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.797 0.828 0.767 0.885 0.878 0.933 0.944 0.932 0.951 0.945 NSS 3.7 4.2 5.2 8.3 13.2 17.3 18.9 19.8 20.8 21.7 YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 210. 276. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.469 0.577 0.597 0.349 0.326 0.325 0.325 SDEV 0.213 0.157 0.141 0.243 0.242 0.214 0.234 SERR 0.015 0.009 0.008 0.013 0.013 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.954 0.972 0.975 0.933 0.926 0.926 0.926 NSS 23.7 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1496 1983 488 0.523 0.182 1.160 4.344 0.154 0.840 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.340 0.185 0.081 105 383 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.30 1.00 1.09 1.39 8.38 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 330. 108. 169. 262. 370. 488. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.838 0.787 0.774 0.752 0.713 0.686 0.647 0.634 0.604 0.588 PACF 0.838 0.283 0.232 0.117 0.006 0.019 -0.052 0.053 -0.017 0.042 95% C.L. 0.091 0.140 0.173 0.199 0.221 0.239 0.255 0.268 0.280 0.291 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.757 0.485 0.131 0.178 0.135 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 692011 1 0.73569423 0.00602555 0.00000000 0.24765466 2 692012 1 0.96352488 0.00996149 0.00000000 0.31598666 3 692021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00047077 0.31364125 4 692022 1 0.14532664 0.00795899 0.00000000 0.40404359 5 692031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00059087 0.49968705 6 692032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00113431 0.69258654 7 692041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00089873 0.54607880 8 692042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00137275 0.67349285 9 692051 1 0.19831923 0.00225929 0.00000000 0.26465279 10 692052 1 0.59182209 0.01240618 0.00000000 0.15756153 11 692061 1 0.50699407 0.02432870 0.00000000 0.30857781 12 692062 1 0.32889971 0.01260030 0.00000000 0.27012241 13 692071 1 0.62477738 0.01569615 0.00000000 0.42988226 14 692072 1 0.83791482 0.01068434 0.00000000 0.30096570 15 692081 1 0.26632002 0.00451173 0.00000000 0.29435959 16 692082 1 0.81481642 0.01272067 0.00000000 0.36214668 17 692091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00183540 0.18716925 18 692092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00178151 0.42868978 19 692101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00048085 0.52395403 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 692102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00112756 0.57986671 21 692111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00170063 0.38462824 22 692112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00176344 0.44245943 23 692121 1 0.29625866 0.02828110 0.00000000 0.49182239 24 692122 1 0.34581548 0.01539702 0.00000000 0.44230616 25 692131 1 0.57620037 0.00324972 0.00000000 0.06228815 26 692132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00034309 0.48234624 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 692011 1539 1983 445 1.000 0.208 0.365 4.171 0.176 0.418 2 692012 1523 1983 461 1.000 0.231 0.557 4.001 0.170 0.521 3 692021 1592 1983 392 0.999 0.302 0.422 2.720 0.195 0.676 4 692022 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.334 1.168 5.393 0.198 0.698 5 692031 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.304 -0.149 2.954 0.223 0.640 6 692032 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.281 0.142 3.355 0.198 0.610 7 692041 1630 1983 354 0.998 0.294 0.023 2.890 0.265 0.429 8 692042 1654 1983 330 0.997 0.266 0.212 2.949 0.237 0.387 9 692051 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.228 0.162 2.694 0.171 0.568 10 692052 1654 1983 330 0.998 0.255 -0.164 3.161 0.176 0.662 11 692061 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.190 0.343 3.170 0.159 0.426 12 692062 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.185 0.146 3.962 0.156 0.396 13 692071 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.204 0.163 3.269 0.178 0.384 14 692072 1614 1983 370 1.000 0.238 0.353 2.993 0.172 0.568 15 692081 1496 1983 488 1.000 0.260 0.135 3.623 0.205 0.511 16 692082 1510 1983 474 1.000 0.227 0.262 2.927 0.210 0.351 17 692091 1682 1983 302 1.013 0.370 1.923 9.089 0.187 0.778 18 692092 1815 1983 169 1.002 0.227 0.250 3.180 0.167 0.578 19 692101 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.256 0.196 3.022 0.198 0.529 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 692102 1780 1983 204 0.999 0.242 -0.073 3.700 0.202 0.490 21 692111 1737 1983 247 0.997 0.247 0.484 3.494 0.205 0.430 22 692112 1722 1983 262 1.000 0.227 0.255 2.764 0.208 0.376 23 692121 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.286 0.791 5.867 0.216 0.494 24 692122 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.277 1.572 10.905 0.211 0.434 25 692131 1660 1983 324 1.001 0.315 0.041 3.542 0.199 0.653 26 692132 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.305 0.257 3.211 0.198 0.640 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 325 1.000 0.260 0.378 3.962 0.195 0.525 STANDARD DEVIATION 90 0.003 0.045 0.492 1.947 0.025 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 330 1.000 0.256 0.252 3.240 0.198 0.516 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 108 0.000 0.067 0.279 1.008 0.032 0.213 MINIMUM VALUE 169 0.997 0.185 -0.164 2.694 0.156 0.351 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 1.000 0.227 0.142 2.954 0.176 0.426 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 370 1.000 0.294 0.422 3.962 0.208 0.640 MAXIMUM VALUE 488 1.013 0.370 1.923 10.905 0.265 0.778 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 692011 -67 298 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 692012 -67 308 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 692021 -67 262 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 692022 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 692031 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 692032 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 692041 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 692042 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 692051 -67 226 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 692052 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 692061 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 692062 -67 233 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 692071 -67 248 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 692072 -67 247 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 692081 -67 326 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 692082 -67 317 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 692091 -67 202 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 692092 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 692101 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 692102 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 692111 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 692112 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 692121 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 692122 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 692131 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 692132 -67 244 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 692011 1539 1983 445 1.000 0.205 0.299 4.075 0.176 0.408 2 692012 1523 1983 461 0.999 0.226 0.614 4.203 0.170 0.501 3 692021 1592 1983 392 0.994 0.255 0.433 3.009 0.195 0.533 4 692022 1626 1983 358 0.993 0.267 0.603 3.497 0.198 0.551 5 692031 1795 1983 189 0.997 0.278 -0.308 3.339 0.223 0.551 6 692032 1810 1983 174 0.997 0.251 0.060 4.072 0.198 0.489 7 692041 1630 1983 354 0.997 0.279 -0.062 3.036 0.265 0.366 8 692042 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.261 0.202 3.064 0.237 0.365 9 692051 1646 1983 338 0.997 0.205 -0.001 2.754 0.171 0.471 10 692052 1654 1983 330 0.995 0.230 -0.140 3.621 0.176 0.577 11 692061 1654 1983 330 0.999 0.184 0.306 3.280 0.159 0.381 12 692062 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.181 0.057 3.956 0.156 0.378 13 692071 1613 1983 371 0.999 0.194 0.052 3.368 0.178 0.322 14 692072 1614 1983 370 0.997 0.221 0.303 3.126 0.172 0.504 15 692081 1496 1983 488 0.999 0.253 0.063 3.617 0.205 0.484 16 692082 1510 1983 474 0.999 0.219 0.228 2.820 0.210 0.303 17 692091 1682 1983 302 0.990 0.258 0.588 3.323 0.187 0.606 18 692092 1815 1983 169 0.997 0.196 0.199 3.094 0.167 0.432 19 692101 1789 1983 195 0.998 0.228 0.175 2.781 0.199 0.415 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 692102 1780 1983 204 0.998 0.214 -0.092 3.709 0.202 0.323 21 692111 1737 1983 247 0.998 0.223 0.363 3.144 0.205 0.320 22 692112 1722 1983 262 0.999 0.222 0.253 2.827 0.208 0.344 23 692121 1669 1983 315 0.999 0.277 1.491 10.929 0.216 0.427 24 692122 1660 1983 324 0.998 0.266 1.882 13.327 0.211 0.381 25 692131 1660 1983 324 0.993 0.290 0.250 4.193 0.199 0.587 26 692132 1619 1983 365 0.993 0.260 0.244 3.326 0.197 0.509 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 325 0.997 0.236 0.310 4.057 0.195 0.443 STANDARD DEVIATION 90 0.003 0.032 0.466 2.440 0.025 0.092 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 330 0.998 0.229 0.236 3.332 0.198 0.429 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 108 0.002 0.047 0.306 0.893 0.032 0.143 MINIMUM VALUE 169 0.990 0.181 -0.308 2.754 0.156 0.303 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 0.997 0.214 0.057 3.064 0.176 0.366 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 370 0.999 0.261 0.363 3.956 0.208 0.509 MAXIMUM VALUE 488 1.000 0.290 1.882 13.327 0.265 0.606 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.383 0.128 0.007 0.292 3.961 -0.013 0.826 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.013 SERIES 692051 AND 692091 302 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.826 SERIES 692121 AND 692122 315 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.20 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1550. 1575. 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. CORR 3. 6. 6. 10. 28. 66. 153. 171. 190. 210. RBAR 0.461 0.400 0.404 0.516 0.467 0.474 0.445 0.402 0.458 0.465 SDEV 0.209 0.312 0.255 0.148 0.183 0.186 0.171 0.183 0.194 0.168 SERR 0.121 0.127 0.104 0.047 0.035 0.023 0.014 0.014 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.761 0.735 0.780 0.899 0.921 0.940 0.938 0.930 0.946 0.950 NSS 3.7 4.2 5.2 8.3 13.2 17.3 18.9 19.8 20.8 21.7 YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 210. 276. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.495 0.616 0.592 0.359 0.333 0.330 0.341 SDEV 0.170 0.118 0.150 0.219 0.234 0.208 0.216 SERR 0.012 0.007 0.008 0.012 0.013 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.959 0.976 0.974 0.936 0.928 0.928 0.931 NSS 23.7 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1496 1983 488 0.983 0.179 -0.256 3.746 0.162 0.367 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.270 0.108 0.061 123 365 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.46 1.00 1.07 1.53 9.11 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.366 0.239 0.214 0.250 0.141 0.112 -0.025 0.044 0.014 0.008 PACF 0.366 0.122 0.109 0.146 -0.021 0.011 -0.139 0.040 -0.017 0.003 95% C.L. 0.091 0.102 0.106 0.110 0.114 0.116 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.185 0.287 0.076 0.070 0.162 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.237 0.147 0.110 0.236 0.068 0.063 -0.069 0.031 -0.016 0.063 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.237 2 0.214 0.097 3 0.208 0.084 0.060 4 0.196 0.067 0.018 0.200 5 0.204 0.068 0.021 0.208 -0.040 6 0.205 0.065 0.020 0.207 -0.042 0.011 7 0.206 0.060 0.046 0.210 -0.034 0.036 -0.123 8 0.209 0.059 0.047 0.206 -0.035 0.035 -0.127 0.019 9 0.209 0.057 0.047 0.205 -0.031 0.036 -0.126 0.023 -0.019 10 0.210 0.055 0.056 0.202 -0.029 0.021 -0.130 0.019 -0.034 0.072 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 4089.75 4063.57 4061.01 4061.27 4043.33 4044.54 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 4046.48 4040.99 4042.81 4044.63 4044.12 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.214 0.097 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.49 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.94 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.214 0.142 0.051 0.025 0.010 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 692011 2 0.195 0.337 0.174 2 692012 2 0.289 0.408 0.189 3 692021 2 0.320 0.437 0.182 4 692022 2 0.331 0.466 0.156 5 692031 2 0.397 0.354 0.361 6 692032 2 0.311 0.342 0.303 7 692041 2 0.184 0.287 0.222 8 692042 2 0.152 0.316 0.138 9 692051 2 0.266 0.379 0.197 10 692052 2 0.368 0.489 0.158 11 692061 2 0.158 0.341 0.109 12 692062 2 0.173 0.313 0.175 13 692071 2 0.129 0.269 0.166 14 692072 2 0.279 0.419 0.169 15 692081 2 0.271 0.433 0.113 16 692082 2 0.101 0.275 0.091 17 692091 2 0.406 0.500 0.176 18 692092 2 0.232 0.339 0.220 19 692101 2 0.178 0.388 0.068 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 692102 2 0.113 0.335 -0.015 21 692111 2 0.116 0.298 0.072 22 692112 2 0.153 0.290 0.159 23 692121 2 0.189 0.397 0.070 24 692122 2 0.152 0.362 0.052 25 692131 2 0.406 0.479 0.186 26 692132 2 0.318 0.431 0.156 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.238 0.372 0.156 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.097 0.069 0.077 MEDIAN 2 0.214 0.358 0.162 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.165 0.115 0.076 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.101 0.269 -0.015 LOWER HINGE 2 0.153 0.316 0.109 UPPER HINGE 2 0.318 0.431 0.186 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.406 0.500 0.361 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 692011 1539 1983 445 1.000 0.184 0.132 4.935 0.204 -0.012 2 692012 1523 1983 461 1.000 0.192 0.590 5.680 0.205 -0.024 3 692021 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.212 0.464 4.271 0.236 -0.023 4 692022 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.220 0.691 5.225 0.239 -0.017 5 692031 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.216 -0.024 3.344 0.243 -0.003 6 692032 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.208 0.277 3.844 0.221 0.011 7 692041 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.252 -0.166 3.539 0.294 -0.017 8 692042 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.241 0.132 3.301 0.272 -0.002 9 692051 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.177 0.108 2.909 0.205 -0.027 10 692052 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.185 -0.056 3.680 0.215 -0.021 11 692061 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.169 0.303 3.554 0.185 -0.006 12 692062 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.165 0.061 4.688 0.180 -0.012 13 692071 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.181 0.107 3.570 0.200 -0.003 14 692072 1614 1983 370 1.000 0.188 0.301 4.083 0.207 -0.011 15 692081 1496 1983 488 1.000 0.219 0.243 3.042 0.249 -0.025 16 692082 1510 1983 474 1.000 0.208 0.291 3.262 0.234 -0.004 17 692091 1682 1983 302 1.000 0.202 0.225 3.957 0.231 -0.033 18 692092 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.172 -0.047 3.223 0.196 -0.019 19 692101 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.207 0.247 3.295 0.235 -0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 692102 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.202 -0.030 4.080 0.228 0.000 21 692111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.211 0.308 3.116 0.235 -0.007 22 692112 1722 1983 262 1.000 0.206 0.196 2.657 0.236 -0.018 23 692121 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.250 1.864 14.914 0.250 -0.005 24 692122 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.246 2.148 16.747 0.245 -0.004 25 692131 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.230 0.661 5.719 0.247 -0.046 26 692132 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.221 0.327 4.051 0.237 -0.038 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 325 1.000 0.206 0.360 4.796 0.228 -0.014 STANDARD DEVIATION 90 0.000 0.025 0.531 3.358 0.026 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 330 1.000 0.207 0.245 3.762 0.234 -0.012 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 108 0.000 0.035 0.220 1.393 0.038 0.019 MINIMUM VALUE 169 1.000 0.165 -0.166 2.657 0.180 -0.046 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 1.000 0.185 0.107 3.295 0.205 -0.023 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 370 1.000 0.220 0.327 4.688 0.243 -0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 488 1.000 0.252 2.148 16.747 0.294 0.011 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.492 0.099 0.005 0.323 4.282 0.215 0.845 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.215 SERIES 692041 AND 692102 204 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.845 SERIES 692121 AND 692122 315 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.20 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1550. 1575. 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. CORR 3. 6. 6. 10. 28. 66. 153. 171. 190. 210. RBAR 0.443 0.503 0.533 0.555 0.518 0.480 0.425 0.483 0.563 0.577 SDEV 0.187 0.207 0.160 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.144 0.140 0.146 0.128 SERR 0.108 0.084 0.065 0.040 0.024 0.016 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.748 0.808 0.857 0.912 0.934 0.941 0.933 0.949 0.964 0.967 NSS 3.7 4.2 5.2 8.3 13.2 17.3 18.9 19.8 20.8 21.7 YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 210. 276. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.578 0.659 0.647 0.460 0.483 0.449 0.455 SDEV 0.116 0.107 0.116 0.147 0.151 0.160 0.163 SERR 0.008 0.006 0.006 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.970 0.980 0.979 0.957 0.960 0.955 0.956 NSS 23.7 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1496 1983 488 0.993 0.152 0.056 4.053 0.177 -0.065 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.216 0.080 0.054 121 367 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.52 1.00 1.10 1.62 5.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.065 -0.122 0.031 0.142 0.015 0.057 -0.115 0.046 0.009 -0.006 PACF -0.065 -0.126 0.014 0.133 0.041 0.095 -0.109 0.026 -0.027 -0.013 95% C.L. 0.091 0.091 0.092 0.092 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.096 0.096 0.096 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.021 -0.073 -0.129 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.020 0.027 0.143 0.021 0.075 -0.108 0.045 -0.005 -0.002 PACF 0.002 0.020 0.027 0.143 0.020 0.070 -0.119 0.022 -0.014 -0.016 95% C.L. 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.092 0.093 0.093 0.094 0.094 0.094 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 0.002 0.020 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1496 1983 488 0.993 0.158 -0.194 3.635 0.152 0.258 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.257 0.197 0.125 0.187 0.074 0.088 -0.065 0.034 -0.007 -0.002 PACF 0.257 0.140 0.049 0.134 -0.019 0.029 -0.128 0.038 -0.009 -0.012 95% C.L. 0.091 0.096 0.100 0.101 0.104 0.104 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.090 0.222 0.145 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.44 MINUTES