RUN: MT001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: MT108X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: MT108X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 692 1 Highland Fire Outlook DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCEN - 692 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 2730 4545-11232 1496 1983 692 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 16 692082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1518 1518 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 692011 1539 1983 445 0.674 0.078 0.147 2.831 0.083 0.576 2 692012 1523 1983 461 0.626 0.063 -0.085 2.796 0.084 0.420 3 692021 1592 1983 392 0.632 0.065 -0.100 2.982 0.085 0.437 4 692022 1626 1983 358 0.603 0.091 0.725 2.983 0.073 0.805 5 692031 1795 1983 189 0.678 0.063 -0.584 3.126 0.080 0.457 6 692032 1810 1983 174 0.724 0.072 -0.439 2.575 0.075 0.553 7 692041 1630 1983 354 0.693 0.062 -0.430 2.959 0.061 0.631 8 692042 1654 1983 330 0.663 0.069 -0.614 2.866 0.065 0.687 9 692051 1646 1983 338 0.573 0.061 -0.281 2.680 0.076 0.594 10 692052 1654 1983 330 0.575 0.067 -0.142 2.700 0.068 0.700 11 692061 1654 1983 330 0.565 0.061 0.299 2.418 0.062 0.721 12 692062 1635 1983 349 0.595 0.055 0.952 5.526 0.061 0.612 13 692071 1613 1983 371 0.674 0.066 -0.316 3.077 0.067 0.610 14 692072 1614 1983 370 0.686 0.055 -0.359 3.222 0.067 0.449 15 692081 1496 1983 488 0.593 0.062 0.209 3.045 0.070 0.632 16 692082 1510 1983 474 0.621 0.074 -0.174 2.270 0.065 0.747 17 692091 1682 1983 302 0.615 0.065 -0.255 2.561 0.065 0.681 18 692092 1815 1983 169 0.603 0.055 0.045 3.975 0.069 0.501 19 692101 1789 1983 195 0.682 0.074 -0.817 3.738 0.067 0.711 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 692102 1780 1983 204 0.681 0.057 -0.702 3.265 0.072 0.401 21 692111 1737 1983 247 0.714 0.057 -0.392 3.525 0.064 0.473 22 692112 1722 1983 262 0.673 0.064 -0.250 2.523 0.073 0.539 23 692121 1669 1983 315 0.688 0.052 -0.477 3.346 0.065 0.361 24 692122 1660 1983 324 0.648 0.075 -0.255 2.296 0.072 0.691 25 692131 1660 1983 324 0.652 0.061 -0.038 2.484 0.074 0.504 26 692132 1619 1983 365 0.668 0.071 -0.260 2.753 0.073 0.651 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1496 TO 1983 488 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 325 0.646 0.065 -0.177 3.020 0.071 0.583 STANDARD DEVIATION 89 0.045 0.009 0.403 0.663 0.007 0.120 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 330 0.657 0.064 -0.255 2.912 0.069 0.602 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 108 0.078 0.011 0.392 0.647 0.009 0.214 MINIMUM VALUE 169 0.565 0.052 -0.817 2.270 0.061 0.361 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 0.603 0.061 -0.430 2.575 0.065 0.473 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 370 0.681 0.071 -0.038 3.222 0.074 0.687 MAXIMUM VALUE 488 0.724 0.091 0.952 5.526 0.085 0.805 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.254 0.197 0.011 -0.206 2.393 -0.261 0.665 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.261 SERIES 692022 AND 692112 262 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.665 SERIES 692071 AND 692072 370 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.20 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1550. 1575. 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. CORR 3. 6. 6. 10. 28. 66. 153. 171. 190. 210. RBAR 0.308 0.386 0.480 0.540 0.438 0.507 0.389 0.384 0.355 0.302 SDEV 0.293 0.182 0.178 0.140 0.160 0.169 0.187 0.192 0.229 0.262 SERR 0.169 0.074 0.073 0.044 0.030 0.021 0.015 0.015 0.017 0.018 EPS 0.624 0.723 0.828 0.907 0.912 0.947 0.923 0.925 0.920 0.904 NSS 3.7 4.2 5.2 8.3 13.2 17.3 18.9 19.8 20.8 21.7 YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 210. 276. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.372 0.345 0.289 0.286 0.324 0.325 0.280 SDEV 0.224 0.204 0.199 0.212 0.197 0.203 0.231 SERR 0.015 0.012 0.011 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.013 EPS 0.934 0.931 0.913 0.913 0.926 0.926 0.910 NSS 23.7 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1496 1983 488 0.654 0.042 0.114 3.369 0.052 0.406 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.331 -0.188 0.189 45 443 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.09 0.29 1.00 1.03 1.32 2.44 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.87 0.99 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 330. 108. 169. 262. 370. 488. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.405 0.382 0.355 0.300 0.303 0.264 0.302 0.287 0.234 0.274 PACF 0.405 0.261 0.174 0.079 0.096 0.043 0.111 0.071 -0.005 0.072 95% C.L. 0.091 0.104 0.115 0.124 0.130 0.135 0.140 0.145 0.149 0.152 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.258 0.233 0.178 0.135 0.056 0.095 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 692011 1 0.22170998 0.01724252 0.00000000 0.64541316 2 692012 1 0.07700909 0.01065264 0.00000000 0.61076558 3 692021 1 0.12835869 0.00129105 0.00000000 0.53103745 4 692022 1 0.14939366 0.01957243 0.00000000 0.58206373 5 692031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014170 0.69150400 6 692032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00068631 0.66443092 7 692041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035370 0.75614333 8 692042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00052709 0.74999136 9 692051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025901 0.52908540 10 692052 1 0.17878453 0.00399058 0.00000000 0.47534332 11 692061 1 0.17160931 0.01273336 0.00000000 0.52469647 12 692062 1 0.19672535 0.02914514 0.00000000 0.57604158 13 692071 1 0.16316035 0.00388130 0.00000000 0.58727586 14 692072 1 0.08290748 0.00701135 0.00000000 0.65694094 15 692081 1 0.13665679 0.01116331 0.00000000 0.56840390 16 692082 1 0.19312151 0.00311329 0.00000000 0.52046126 17 692091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019110 0.58598226 18 692092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007354 0.60956466 19 692101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037076 0.64540893 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 692102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007869 0.67320871 21 692111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035412 0.75743264 22 692112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027044 0.70895940 23 692121 1 0.05002841 0.00558204 0.00000000 0.66432893 24 692122 1 0.15743932 0.01109302 0.00000000 0.60519707 25 692131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022260 0.68839467 26 692132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00043856 0.74803752 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 692011 1539 1983 445 1.000 0.092 -0.379 3.011 0.083 0.322 2 692012 1523 1983 461 1.000 0.097 -0.129 2.879 0.084 0.363 3 692021 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.101 0.033 3.073 0.085 0.409 4 692022 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.143 1.245 4.727 0.073 0.778 5 692031 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.093 -0.551 3.233 0.079 0.449 6 692032 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.088 -0.246 2.963 0.074 0.438 7 692041 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.074 -0.006 3.472 0.061 0.447 8 692042 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.075 -0.248 4.983 0.065 0.351 9 692051 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.097 -0.044 3.105 0.076 0.515 10 692052 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.099 0.300 3.933 0.068 0.601 11 692061 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.079 0.249 3.526 0.062 0.461 12 692062 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.065 -0.225 3.706 0.061 0.272 13 692071 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.084 -0.291 3.456 0.066 0.450 14 692072 1614 1983 370 1.000 0.075 -0.370 3.617 0.067 0.356 15 692081 1496 1983 488 1.000 0.089 -0.157 3.092 0.070 0.481 16 692082 1510 1983 474 1.000 0.099 -0.225 2.803 0.065 0.630 17 692091 1682 1983 302 1.000 0.102 0.011 2.887 0.065 0.658 18 692092 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.090 -0.038 4.011 0.069 0.490 19 692101 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.104 -0.724 3.619 0.067 0.679 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 692102 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.083 -0.628 3.132 0.072 0.397 21 692111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.072 -0.378 3.377 0.064 0.345 22 692112 1722 1983 262 1.000 0.091 -0.035 2.571 0.073 0.491 23 692121 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.074 -0.538 3.387 0.065 0.321 24 692122 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.100 -0.110 2.650 0.072 0.575 25 692131 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.087 -0.218 2.777 0.074 0.438 26 692132 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.082 -0.215 2.769 0.073 0.399 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 325 1.000 0.090 -0.151 3.337 0.070 0.466 STANDARD DEVIATION 90 0.000 0.015 0.375 0.590 0.007 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 330 1.000 0.090 -0.216 3.183 0.069 0.448 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 108 0.000 0.020 0.335 0.731 0.009 0.152 MINIMUM VALUE 169 1.000 0.065 -0.724 2.571 0.061 0.272 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 1.000 0.079 -0.370 2.887 0.065 0.363 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 370 1.000 0.099 -0.035 3.617 0.074 0.515 MAXIMUM VALUE 488 1.000 0.143 1.245 4.983 0.085 0.778 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 692011 -67 298 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 692012 -67 308 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 692021 -67 262 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 692022 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 692031 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 692032 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 692041 -67 237 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 692042 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 692051 -67 226 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 692052 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 692061 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 692062 -67 233 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 692071 -67 248 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 692072 -67 247 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 692081 -67 326 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 692082 -67 317 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 692091 -67 202 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 692092 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 692101 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 692102 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 692111 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 692112 -67 175 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 692121 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 692122 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 692131 -67 217 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 692132 -67 244 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 692011 1539 1983 445 1.000 0.086 -0.315 3.016 0.083 0.220 2 692012 1523 1983 461 1.000 0.093 -0.181 2.956 0.084 0.321 3 692021 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.099 -0.028 3.053 0.085 0.387 4 692022 1626 1983 358 0.999 0.099 0.151 2.973 0.073 0.551 5 692031 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.086 -0.539 3.103 0.079 0.347 6 692032 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.085 -0.265 3.027 0.074 0.391 7 692041 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.072 0.039 3.463 0.061 0.415 8 692042 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.074 -0.233 4.841 0.065 0.326 9 692051 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.095 -0.117 2.967 0.076 0.489 10 692052 1654 1983 330 0.999 0.089 0.164 3.550 0.068 0.503 11 692061 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.073 0.499 4.364 0.062 0.371 12 692062 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.065 -0.253 3.761 0.061 0.254 13 692071 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.079 -0.309 3.396 0.066 0.379 14 692072 1614 1983 370 1.000 0.074 -0.398 3.685 0.067 0.340 15 692081 1496 1983 488 1.000 0.088 -0.150 3.094 0.070 0.470 16 692082 1510 1983 474 0.999 0.086 -0.197 2.966 0.065 0.508 17 692091 1682 1983 302 0.999 0.085 0.149 4.127 0.065 0.513 18 692092 1815 1983 169 0.999 0.080 -0.111 3.304 0.069 0.378 19 692101 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.082 -0.170 4.648 0.067 0.464 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 692102 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.076 -0.465 3.336 0.072 0.258 21 692111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.068 -0.342 3.619 0.064 0.250 22 692112 1722 1983 262 0.999 0.072 -0.231 2.947 0.073 0.190 23 692121 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.070 -0.560 3.572 0.065 0.246 24 692122 1660 1983 324 0.999 0.075 -0.085 3.284 0.072 0.245 25 692131 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.083 -0.215 2.812 0.074 0.385 26 692132 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.077 -0.232 2.841 0.073 0.328 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 325 1.000 0.081 -0.169 3.412 0.070 0.367 STANDARD DEVIATION 90 0.000 0.009 0.234 0.553 0.007 0.102 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 330 1.000 0.081 -0.206 3.294 0.069 0.374 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 108 0.000 0.013 0.224 0.646 0.009 0.207 MINIMUM VALUE 169 0.999 0.065 -0.560 2.812 0.061 0.190 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 0.999 0.074 -0.309 2.973 0.065 0.258 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 370 1.000 0.086 -0.085 3.619 0.074 0.464 MAXIMUM VALUE 488 1.000 0.099 0.499 4.841 0.085 0.551 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.286 0.125 0.007 0.198 2.928 -0.114 0.632 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.114 SERIES 692041 AND 692111 247 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.632 SERIES 692011 AND 692012 445 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.20 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1550. 1575. 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. CORR 3. 6. 6. 10. 28. 66. 153. 171. 190. 210. RBAR 0.284 0.374 0.493 0.513 0.447 0.455 0.417 0.397 0.343 0.305 SDEV 0.241 0.205 0.201 0.137 0.146 0.176 0.181 0.190 0.236 0.252 SERR 0.139 0.084 0.082 0.043 0.028 0.022 0.015 0.015 0.017 0.017 EPS 0.596 0.713 0.836 0.898 0.914 0.935 0.931 0.929 0.915 0.905 NSS 3.7 4.2 5.2 8.3 13.2 17.3 18.9 19.8 20.8 21.7 YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 210. 276. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.392 0.366 0.304 0.299 0.330 0.342 0.301 SDEV 0.217 0.180 0.174 0.198 0.187 0.183 0.226 SERR 0.015 0.011 0.010 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.013 EPS 0.939 0.936 0.919 0.917 0.927 0.931 0.918 NSS 23.7 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1496 1983 488 1.000 0.053 -0.511 4.255 0.053 0.123 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.071 -0.032 0.093 118 370 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.30 1.00 1.04 1.34 3.48 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.123 0.121 0.093 0.009 0.009 -0.056 -0.004 0.002 -0.053 0.006 PACF 0.123 0.108 0.068 -0.021 -0.007 -0.063 0.010 0.015 -0.047 0.014 95% C.L. 0.091 0.092 0.093 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.032 0.103 0.101 0.069 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.104 0.132 0.128 0.035 -0.036 -0.035 -0.052 0.005 -0.007 0.083 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.104 2 0.091 0.123 3 0.078 0.113 0.106 4 0.078 0.113 0.106 -0.001 5 0.078 0.121 0.114 0.004 -0.070 6 0.075 0.121 0.119 0.010 -0.066 -0.046 7 0.073 0.118 0.120 0.015 -0.061 -0.043 -0.039 8 0.075 0.120 0.122 0.014 -0.066 -0.047 -0.042 0.036 9 0.074 0.120 0.123 0.015 -0.066 -0.049 -0.043 0.035 0.014 10 0.073 0.117 0.127 0.019 -0.060 -0.050 -0.055 0.023 0.007 0.093 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2930.08 2926.76 2921.33 2917.80 2919.80 2919.42 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2920.40 2921.65 2923.03 2924.93 2922.68 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.078 0.113 0.106 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.68 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.82 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.078 0.119 0.124 0.032 0.029 0.019 0.008 0.006 0.003 0.0018 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 692011 3 0.096 0.160 0.176 0.094 2 692012 3 0.178 0.205 0.199 0.164 3 692021 3 0.245 0.242 0.197 0.192 4 692022 3 0.375 0.386 0.115 0.227 5 692031 3 0.177 0.251 0.175 0.117 6 692032 3 0.199 0.295 0.217 0.035 7 692041 3 0.208 0.342 0.215 -0.046 8 692042 3 0.134 0.276 0.148 0.019 9 692051 3 0.312 0.339 0.142 0.202 10 692052 3 0.312 0.368 0.244 0.031 11 692061 3 0.168 0.295 0.152 0.069 12 692062 3 0.096 0.205 0.112 0.113 13 692071 3 0.211 0.254 0.212 0.129 14 692072 3 0.167 0.245 0.167 0.130 15 692081 3 0.245 0.389 0.133 0.056 16 692082 3 0.331 0.345 0.153 0.202 17 692091 3 0.281 0.440 0.094 0.071 18 692092 3 0.204 0.285 0.200 0.086 19 692101 3 0.226 0.411 0.095 0.031 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 692102 3 0.116 0.187 0.156 0.132 21 692111 3 0.119 0.193 0.093 0.181 22 692112 3 0.064 0.164 0.066 0.112 23 692121 3 0.084 0.209 0.155 0.004 24 692122 3 0.080 0.206 0.121 0.055 25 692131 3 0.200 0.290 0.152 0.120 26 692132 3 0.144 0.282 0.044 0.172 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.191 0.279 0.151 0.104 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.083 0.079 0.050 0.070 MEDIAN 3 0.189 0.279 0.153 0.113 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.126 0.136 0.082 0.109 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.064 0.160 0.044 -0.046 LOWER HINGE 3 0.119 0.206 0.115 0.055 UPPER HINGE 3 0.245 0.342 0.197 0.164 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.375 0.440 0.244 0.227 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 692011 1539 1983 445 1.000 0.082 -0.284 3.589 0.090 -0.006 2 692012 1523 1983 461 1.000 0.085 -0.354 3.389 0.093 -0.006 3 692021 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.086 -0.114 3.283 0.096 -0.023 4 692022 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.079 0.316 3.367 0.086 -0.017 5 692031 1795 1983 189 1.000 0.078 -0.619 3.357 0.091 0.011 6 692032 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.076 -0.452 3.126 0.086 0.001 7 692041 1630 1983 354 1.000 0.064 0.110 3.634 0.071 0.002 8 692042 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.069 -0.105 4.525 0.075 0.003 9 692051 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.079 -0.214 3.399 0.088 -0.020 10 692052 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.074 -0.054 3.832 0.081 -0.005 11 692061 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.067 0.466 4.731 0.072 0.002 12 692062 1635 1983 349 1.000 0.061 -0.378 3.944 0.068 -0.003 13 692071 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.070 -0.182 4.215 0.075 0.001 14 692072 1614 1983 370 1.000 0.068 -0.552 3.768 0.074 0.005 15 692081 1496 1983 488 1.000 0.077 -0.079 3.354 0.084 -0.004 16 692082 1510 1983 474 1.000 0.070 -0.324 4.274 0.076 -0.013 17 692091 1682 1983 302 1.000 0.072 0.216 4.401 0.079 -0.004 18 692092 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.071 -0.248 3.094 0.078 -0.007 19 692101 1789 1983 195 1.000 0.072 0.199 5.188 0.082 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 692102 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.071 -0.321 3.789 0.079 -0.008 21 692111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.064 -0.542 4.225 0.071 -0.019 22 692112 1722 1983 262 1.000 0.070 -0.288 3.048 0.079 -0.011 23 692121 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.067 -0.565 3.809 0.072 -0.002 24 692122 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.072 -0.109 3.464 0.080 -0.002 25 692131 1660 1983 324 1.000 0.075 -0.142 2.850 0.085 -0.013 26 692132 1619 1983 365 1.000 0.072 -0.148 3.194 0.082 -0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 325 1.000 0.073 -0.183 3.725 0.080 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 90 0.000 0.006 0.277 0.576 0.007 0.008 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 330 1.000 0.072 -0.198 3.611 0.080 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 108 0.000 0.008 0.276 0.862 0.011 0.012 MINIMUM VALUE 169 1.000 0.061 -0.619 2.850 0.068 -0.023 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 262 1.000 0.069 -0.354 3.354 0.075 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 370 1.000 0.077 -0.079 4.215 0.086 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 488 1.000 0.086 0.466 5.188 0.096 0.011 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.364 0.133 0.007 0.016 3.067 -0.045 0.728 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.045 SERIES 692041 AND 692111 247 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.728 SERIES 692011 AND 692012 445 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 56.20 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1550. 1575. 1600. 1625. 1650. 1675. 1700. 1725. 1750. 1775. CORR 3. 6. 6. 10. 28. 66. 153. 171. 190. 210. RBAR 0.364 0.517 0.639 0.555 0.500 0.526 0.479 0.500 0.447 0.409 SDEV 0.298 0.145 0.116 0.095 0.106 0.158 0.157 0.141 0.206 0.210 SERR 0.172 0.059 0.047 0.030 0.020 0.019 0.013 0.011 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.680 0.817 0.903 0.912 0.930 0.951 0.946 0.952 0.944 0.938 NSS 3.7 4.2 5.2 8.3 13.2 17.3 18.9 19.8 20.8 21.7 YEAR 1800. 1825. 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 210. 276. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.487 0.435 0.365 0.355 0.375 0.344 0.342 SDEV 0.182 0.157 0.136 0.170 0.187 0.174 0.219 SERR 0.013 0.009 0.008 0.009 0.010 0.010 0.012 EPS 0.957 0.952 0.937 0.935 0.940 0.932 0.931 NSS 23.7 25.5 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1496 1983 488 1.000 0.052 -0.633 5.368 0.059 -0.153 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.088 -0.035 0.085 133 355 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.37 1.00 1.06 1.43 4.43 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.152 -0.049 -0.050 -0.030 -0.011 -0.082 0.008 0.012 -0.052 0.028 PACF -0.152 -0.074 -0.071 -0.055 -0.034 -0.103 -0.034 -0.012 -0.072 -0.005 95% C.L. 0.091 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.037 -0.170 -0.087 -0.072 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.006 -0.018 -0.068 -0.041 -0.098 -0.012 -0.002 -0.053 0.019 PACF -0.004 -0.006 -0.018 -0.068 -0.042 -0.100 -0.017 -0.011 -0.064 0.002 95% C.L. 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.005 -0.004 -0.006 -0.018 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1496 1983 488 1.000 0.051 -0.584 4.626 0.052 0.079 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.079 0.104 0.082 -0.058 -0.035 -0.103 -0.033 -0.020 -0.064 0.009 PACF 0.079 0.098 0.068 -0.079 -0.042 -0.092 -0.002 0.004 -0.050 0.008 95% C.L. 0.091 0.091 0.092 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.094 0.094 0.094 0.094 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.028 0.070 0.101 0.074 -0.080 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.37 MINUTES