RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: NEPA002E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: NEPA002E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 557 1 Kalingchok Gebirge WIDTH_EARLY ABSB - 557 2 Nepal silver fir, East Himalayan fir 3720 2745-8605 1722 1978 - 557 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 557011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1906 1906 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 557012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1905 1906 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 557022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1816 1823 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 557041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1924 1924 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 557061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1922 1924 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 557091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1905 1905 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 557092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1887 1891 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 557131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1858 1858 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 557132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 1 GAPS / 1826 1835 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 557011 1774 1975 202 0.835 0.370 0.210 2.329 0.205 0.845 2 557012 1759 1978 220 0.714 0.557 1.953 7.576 0.212 0.905 3 557021 1733 1954 222 0.768 0.594 1.335 4.232 0.290 0.870 4 557022 1722 1969 248 0.852 0.717 2.303 9.929 0.294 0.783 5 557041 1876 1978 103 1.561 0.782 1.022 3.204 0.207 0.839 6 557051 1890 1976 87 0.936 0.325 -0.205 2.855 0.253 0.687 7 557052 1749 1978 230 0.768 0.338 0.949 4.990 0.288 0.721 8 557061 1736 1976 241 0.909 0.486 1.235 6.262 0.245 0.790 9 557071 1763 1966 204 0.545 0.249 2.628 16.054 0.230 0.587 10 557072 1765 1974 210 0.504 0.224 1.374 5.136 0.194 0.843 11 557081 1754 1978 225 0.672 0.331 1.762 6.676 0.207 0.772 12 557082 1736 1965 230 0.692 0.319 2.529 12.886 0.199 0.764 13 557091 1729 1919 191 0.744 0.506 2.081 7.611 0.209 0.918 14 557092 1725 1919 195 0.657 0.572 3.094 13.576 0.253 0.901 15 557101 1846 1978 133 0.658 0.263 0.400 2.551 0.238 0.747 16 557102 1816 1978 163 0.686 0.281 0.372 2.401 0.223 0.803 17 557112 1790 1978 189 1.023 0.532 0.296 2.575 0.267 0.817 18 557121 1756 1935 180 1.081 0.498 0.927 3.959 0.230 0.773 19 557131 1819 1969 151 1.070 0.574 1.379 5.375 0.269 0.679 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 557132 1759 1977 219 0.785 0.664 3.139 15.563 0.288 0.856 21 557151 1730 1978 249 0.729 0.347 1.665 6.698 0.242 0.807 22 557152 1738 1978 241 0.732 0.290 1.540 9.327 0.191 0.783 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1722 TO 1978 257 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 196 0.815 0.446 1.454 6.898 0.238 0.795 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.225 0.163 0.933 4.306 0.034 0.080 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 206 0.756 0.428 1.376 5.818 0.234 0.796 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 50 0.223 0.253 1.154 6.123 0.060 0.080 MINIMUM VALUE 87 0.504 0.224 -0.205 2.329 0.191 0.587 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 180 0.686 0.319 0.927 3.204 0.207 0.764 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 230 0.909 0.572 2.081 9.327 0.267 0.845 MAXIMUM VALUE 249 1.561 0.782 3.139 16.054 0.294 0.918 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.255 0.221 0.015 0.004 2.666 -0.326 0.815 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.326 SERIES 557021 AND 557041 79 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.815 SERIES 557091 AND 557092 191 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.22 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 45. 120. 136. 171. 190. 171. 171. RBAR 0.180 0.312 0.253 0.219 0.175 0.184 0.259 SDEV 0.221 0.237 0.257 0.275 0.266 0.275 0.250 SERR 0.033 0.022 0.022 0.021 0.019 0.021 0.019 EPS 0.772 0.887 0.863 0.847 0.816 0.828 0.876 NSS 15.4 17.3 18.7 19.8 20.9 21.4 20.2 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1722 1978 257 0.808 0.442 4.623 35.468 0.147 0.694 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.280 0.104 0.273 118 139 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.90 1.78 1.01 1.26 3.04 16.98 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 207. 50. 87. 180. 230. 249. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.691 0.612 0.530 0.433 0.400 0.383 0.389 0.388 0.435 0.433 PACF 0.691 0.258 0.078 -0.032 0.064 0.088 0.106 0.060 0.150 0.053 95% C.L. 0.125 0.174 0.205 0.225 0.238 0.248 0.257 0.266 0.275 0.285 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.704 0.709 0.151 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 557011 1 0.97185785 0.00740420 0.00000000 0.33099326 2 557012 1 2.32608199 0.04268977 0.00000000 0.46675172 3 557021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00207609 0.99954712 4 557022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00333628 1.26072788 5 557041 1 2.84528947 0.07296025 0.00000000 1.19311035 6 557051 1 0.72692788 0.08506991 0.00000000 0.84239477 7 557052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00046378 0.82165408 8 557061 1 1.32763386 0.02340401 0.00000000 0.67703420 9 557071 1 0.62522793 0.03013664 0.00000000 0.44470403 10 557072 1 0.75462019 0.02189680 0.00000000 0.34360960 11 557081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00106278 0.55217260 12 557082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00061706 0.62033832 13 557091 1 1.87335849 0.04108390 0.00000000 0.50733292 14 557092 1 2.04340243 0.04566479 0.00000000 0.42919773 15 557101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00487375 0.98406017 16 557102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00298095 0.93008178 17 557112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00045630 0.97972023 18 557121 1 2.33969498 0.29661533 0.00000000 1.04380095 19 557131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00050279 1.11695778 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 557132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00012891 0.78401130 21 557151 1 1.44019687 0.06460230 0.00000000 0.64220512 22 557152 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00228322 1.00851035 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 557011 1774 1975 202 1.000 0.403 0.589 3.681 0.207 0.781 2 557012 1759 1978 220 0.999 0.535 1.306 5.553 0.212 0.837 3 557021 1733 1954 222 0.999 0.754 1.293 3.812 0.288 0.878 4 557022 1722 1969 248 0.992 0.693 1.765 6.952 0.292 0.778 5 557041 1876 1978 103 1.000 0.352 0.817 3.532 0.207 0.689 6 557051 1890 1976 87 1.000 0.323 -0.124 3.743 0.249 0.625 7 557052 1749 1978 230 1.000 0.441 0.987 4.989 0.287 0.720 8 557061 1736 1976 241 1.000 0.444 1.262 8.016 0.243 0.683 9 557071 1763 1966 204 1.000 0.407 5.665 57.903 0.229 0.338 10 557072 1765 1974 210 1.000 0.251 0.248 3.219 0.193 0.528 11 557081 1754 1978 225 1.000 0.460 1.465 5.647 0.207 0.758 12 557082 1736 1965 230 1.001 0.456 2.335 10.734 0.198 0.756 13 557091 1729 1919 191 1.001 0.408 0.411 2.638 0.208 0.760 14 557092 1725 1919 195 1.003 0.481 1.490 5.779 0.253 0.752 15 557101 1846 1978 133 0.998 0.285 0.469 3.396 0.236 0.433 16 557102 1816 1978 163 0.996 0.328 -0.075 2.869 0.221 0.669 17 557112 1790 1978 189 1.000 0.522 0.339 2.683 0.266 0.812 18 557121 1756 1935 180 1.000 0.438 0.905 4.310 0.228 0.761 19 557131 1819 1969 151 1.000 0.540 1.351 5.119 0.268 0.685 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 557132 1759 1977 219 1.000 0.851 3.208 16.148 0.287 0.851 21 557151 1730 1978 249 1.000 0.365 0.923 5.088 0.241 0.651 22 557152 1738 1978 241 0.998 0.319 0.815 5.031 0.191 0.697 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 197 0.999 0.457 1.247 7.765 0.237 0.702 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.002 0.150 1.250 11.610 0.033 0.130 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 207 1.000 0.439 0.955 5.010 0.232 0.736 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 50 0.001 0.170 0.996 2.247 0.059 0.110 MINIMUM VALUE 87 0.992 0.251 -0.124 2.638 0.191 0.338 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 180 0.999 0.352 0.469 3.532 0.207 0.669 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 230 1.000 0.522 1.465 5.779 0.266 0.778 MAXIMUM VALUE 249 1.003 0.851 5.665 57.903 0.292 0.878 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 557011 -67 135 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 557012 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 557021 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 557022 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 557041 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 557051 -67 58 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 557052 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 557061 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 557071 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 557072 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 557081 -67 150 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 557082 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 557091 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 557092 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 557101 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 557102 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 557112 -67 126 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 557121 -67 120 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 557131 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 557132 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 557151 -67 166 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 557152 -67 161 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 557011 1774 1975 202 0.995 0.389 0.552 3.659 0.207 0.767 2 557012 1759 1978 220 0.989 0.480 1.745 10.462 0.212 0.788 3 557021 1733 1954 222 0.990 0.722 1.241 3.713 0.288 0.870 4 557022 1722 1969 248 0.993 0.662 1.657 6.564 0.291 0.763 5 557041 1876 1978 103 0.992 0.301 0.673 3.880 0.206 0.605 6 557051 1890 1976 87 0.998 0.303 -0.230 3.779 0.249 0.566 7 557052 1749 1978 230 0.995 0.396 0.700 3.848 0.286 0.654 8 557061 1736 1976 241 0.986 0.400 1.002 6.176 0.243 0.644 9 557071 1763 1966 204 0.999 0.417 6.768 73.077 0.229 0.307 10 557072 1765 1974 210 0.998 0.214 0.145 3.333 0.193 0.382 11 557081 1754 1978 225 0.995 0.436 1.279 5.004 0.207 0.746 12 557082 1736 1965 230 0.996 0.362 1.808 9.561 0.198 0.694 13 557091 1729 1919 191 0.994 0.380 0.754 3.244 0.208 0.706 14 557092 1725 1919 195 0.996 0.445 1.207 4.830 0.253 0.728 15 557101 1846 1978 133 0.998 0.273 0.387 3.338 0.236 0.386 16 557102 1816 1978 163 0.991 0.285 0.106 2.957 0.221 0.566 17 557112 1790 1978 189 0.991 0.399 0.649 4.779 0.266 0.630 18 557121 1756 1935 180 0.996 0.425 0.964 4.574 0.228 0.752 19 557131 1819 1969 151 0.993 0.465 1.373 5.740 0.267 0.643 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 557132 1759 1977 219 0.965 0.646 2.519 11.369 0.287 0.807 21 557151 1730 1978 249 0.995 0.308 0.731 4.543 0.241 0.423 22 557152 1738 1978 241 0.994 0.275 0.665 5.141 0.190 0.606 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 197 0.993 0.408 1.213 8.344 0.237 0.638 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.007 0.130 1.393 14.646 0.033 0.150 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 207 0.994 0.398 0.859 4.677 0.232 0.649 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 50 0.005 0.142 0.724 2.463 0.059 0.185 MINIMUM VALUE 87 0.965 0.214 -0.230 2.957 0.190 0.307 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 180 0.991 0.303 0.649 3.713 0.207 0.566 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 230 0.996 0.445 1.373 6.176 0.266 0.752 MAXIMUM VALUE 249 0.999 0.722 6.768 73.077 0.291 0.870 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.202 0.148 0.010 -0.323 3.091 -0.237 0.587 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.237 SERIES 557092 AND 557132 161 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.587 SERIES 557101 AND 557102 133 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.22 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 45. 120. 136. 171. 190. 171. 171. RBAR 0.301 0.298 0.279 0.210 0.166 0.204 0.257 SDEV 0.215 0.248 0.262 0.266 0.266 0.231 0.226 SERR 0.032 0.023 0.022 0.020 0.019 0.018 0.017 EPS 0.869 0.880 0.879 0.840 0.806 0.845 0.875 NSS 15.4 17.3 18.7 19.8 20.9 21.4 20.2 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1722 1978 257 0.976 0.284 1.589 11.564 0.175 0.589 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.340 0.132 0.193 120 137 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.69 1.58 1.00 1.14 2.72 23.83 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.88 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.586 0.347 0.201 0.080 -0.030 -0.040 -0.046 -0.082 -0.016 0.059 PACF 0.586 0.004 -0.007 -0.055 -0.084 0.035 -0.011 -0.063 0.093 0.071 95% C.L. 0.125 0.162 0.173 0.177 0.177 0.177 0.178 0.178 0.178 0.178 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.422 0.648 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.624 0.364 0.242 0.135 0.038 0.041 0.062 -0.025 -0.030 -0.016 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.624 2 0.650 -0.041 3 0.652 -0.074 0.050 4 0.654 -0.077 0.080 -0.045 5 0.652 -0.073 0.076 -0.011 -0.053 6 0.655 -0.072 0.070 -0.005 -0.101 0.074 7 0.653 -0.069 0.070 -0.008 -0.098 0.052 0.034 8 0.657 -0.062 0.057 -0.009 -0.089 0.043 0.120 -0.133 9 0.664 -0.068 0.055 -0.005 -0.089 0.040 0.123 -0.165 0.049 10 0.664 -0.068 0.056 -0.004 -0.089 0.040 0.124 -0.166 0.052 -0.005 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2072.19 1947.40 1948.97 1950.32 1951.79 1953.07 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1953.67 1955.38 1952.79 1954.17 1956.17 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.624 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 38.94 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 163.78 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.624 0.389 0.243 0.152 0.095 0.059 0.037 0.023 0.014 0.0090 0.006 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 557011 1 0.614 0.780 2 557012 1 0.627 0.790 3 557021 1 0.770 0.875 4 557022 1 0.638 0.797 5 557041 1 0.371 0.606 6 557051 1 0.398 0.569 7 557052 1 0.443 0.665 8 557061 1 0.419 0.647 9 557071 1 0.095 0.308 10 557072 1 0.157 0.382 11 557081 1 0.559 0.747 12 557082 1 0.495 0.702 13 557091 1 0.501 0.708 14 557092 1 0.531 0.729 15 557101 1 0.158 0.387 16 557102 1 0.326 0.570 17 557112 1 0.407 0.638 18 557121 1 0.568 0.752 19 557131 1 0.418 0.644 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 557132 1 0.654 0.809 21 557151 1 0.207 0.425 22 557152 1 0.368 0.606 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.442 0.643 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.178 0.153 MEDIAN 1 0.431 0.656 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.200 0.182 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.095 0.308 LOWER HINGE 1 0.368 0.570 UPPER HINGE 1 0.568 0.752 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.770 0.875 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 557011 1774 1975 202 1.000 0.243 0.387 4.107 0.276 -0.075 2 557012 1759 1978 220 1.003 0.281 1.289 10.625 0.258 0.133 3 557021 1733 1954 222 1.001 0.346 1.061 6.529 0.330 0.112 4 557022 1722 1969 248 1.002 0.384 1.387 8.567 0.376 0.045 5 557041 1876 1978 103 1.000 0.240 0.634 5.398 0.261 -0.045 6 557051 1890 1976 87 1.000 0.249 0.077 3.461 0.260 0.188 7 557052 1749 1978 230 1.000 0.295 0.441 3.627 0.336 0.026 8 557061 1736 1976 241 1.000 0.304 1.396 8.588 0.298 -0.026 9 557071 1763 1966 204 1.000 0.397 7.650 86.591 0.258 -0.005 10 557072 1765 1974 210 1.000 0.198 0.000 3.504 0.220 0.043 11 557081 1754 1978 225 1.001 0.285 0.879 6.403 0.280 -0.013 12 557082 1736 1965 230 1.000 0.256 1.541 8.845 0.250 0.031 13 557091 1729 1919 191 1.002 0.261 0.149 5.075 0.279 0.011 14 557092 1725 1919 195 1.000 0.305 1.139 7.498 0.319 0.000 15 557101 1846 1978 133 1.000 0.251 0.326 3.147 0.279 -0.037 16 557102 1816 1978 163 1.000 0.234 0.072 3.318 0.261 0.016 17 557112 1790 1978 189 1.000 0.306 0.881 6.938 0.313 0.002 18 557121 1756 1935 180 1.000 0.280 0.726 4.582 0.280 0.056 19 557131 1819 1969 151 1.002 0.351 1.290 8.109 0.334 0.063 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 557132 1759 1977 219 1.001 0.376 2.130 13.191 0.363 0.004 21 557151 1730 1978 249 1.002 0.270 0.843 5.991 0.277 -0.038 22 557152 1738 1978 241 1.000 0.219 0.569 4.251 0.227 0.013 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 197 1.001 0.288 1.130 9.925 0.288 0.023 STANDARD DEVIATION 45 0.001 0.055 1.557 17.323 0.041 0.061 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 207 1.000 0.281 0.861 6.197 0.279 0.012 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 50 0.001 0.058 0.903 4.460 0.060 0.058 MINIMUM VALUE 87 1.000 0.198 0.000 3.147 0.220 -0.075 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 180 1.000 0.249 0.387 4.107 0.260 -0.013 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 230 1.001 0.306 1.290 8.567 0.319 0.045 MAXIMUM VALUE 249 1.003 0.397 7.650 86.591 0.376 0.188 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.249 0.102 0.007 0.587 3.167 0.013 0.589 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.013 SERIES 557041 AND 557071 91 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.589 SERIES 557101 AND 557102 133 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 63.22 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. CORR 45. 120. 136. 171. 190. 171. 171. RBAR 0.204 0.286 0.270 0.254 0.266 0.298 0.322 SDEV 0.178 0.153 0.152 0.133 0.150 0.148 0.148 SERR 0.026 0.014 0.013 0.010 0.011 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.797 0.874 0.874 0.870 0.883 0.901 0.906 NSS 15.4 17.3 18.7 19.8 20.9 21.4 20.2 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1722 1978 257 0.988 0.168 0.329 4.666 0.175 -0.021 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.365 0.174 0.035 130 127 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 0.95 1.00 1.11 2.07 14.40 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.020 -0.029 0.017 0.008 -0.123 -0.022 0.046 -0.112 -0.031 0.059 PACF -0.020 -0.029 0.016 0.008 -0.122 -0.027 0.039 -0.109 -0.032 0.038 95% C.L. 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.129 0.129 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.029 0.016 0.006 -0.123 -0.024 0.043 -0.111 -0.032 0.060 PACF 0.000 -0.029 0.016 0.005 -0.122 -0.024 0.037 -0.111 -0.029 0.040 95% C.L. 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.129 0.129 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1722 1978 257 0.990 0.214 0.626 4.301 0.136 0.592 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.589 0.333 0.181 0.052 -0.061 -0.063 -0.056 -0.101 -0.056 -0.004 PACF 0.589 -0.021 -0.011 -0.069 -0.091 0.042 -0.006 -0.088 0.059 0.029 95% C.L. 0.125 0.162 0.173 0.176 0.176 0.176 0.177 0.177 0.178 0.178 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.380 0.613 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES