RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: NM569L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: NM569L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 730 1 Ski Valley, Wheeler Peak WIDTH_LATE PCEN - 730 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3120 3635-10530 1828 1983 730 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 730071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1923 1923 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 730081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1978 1983 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 730082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 13 IN 2 GAPS / 1906 1916 / 1941 1942 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 730102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1857 1859 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 730011 1836 1983 148 0.222 0.088 0.553 2.881 0.204 0.726 2 730012 1831 1983 153 0.215 0.092 1.696 7.512 0.233 0.495 3 730021 1845 1983 139 0.183 0.090 5.172 43.529 0.241 0.339 4 730022 1848 1983 136 0.181 0.069 0.940 4.042 0.221 0.552 5 730031 1846 1983 138 0.187 0.054 0.407 3.026 0.164 0.715 6 730032 1858 1983 126 0.233 0.085 0.456 2.795 0.164 0.768 7 730041 1859 1983 125 0.166 0.054 1.138 4.425 0.210 0.567 8 730042 1858 1983 126 0.177 0.059 1.318 6.918 0.196 0.529 9 730061 1842 1983 142 0.165 0.064 2.185 9.520 0.194 0.615 10 730062 1863 1983 121 0.150 0.069 2.096 9.069 0.184 0.776 11 730071 1831 1983 153 0.168 0.083 1.260 4.575 0.255 0.622 12 730072 1830 1919 90 0.227 0.105 1.555 5.189 0.362 0.225 13 730081 1830 1983 154 0.162 0.078 2.188 11.280 0.188 0.752 14 730082 1828 1983 156 0.183 0.076 0.899 4.250 0.202 0.747 15 730091 1845 1965 121 0.135 0.071 2.003 8.498 0.221 0.679 16 730092 1845 1983 139 0.151 0.070 1.993 10.639 0.230 0.627 17 730101 1836 1983 148 0.188 0.097 0.959 3.493 0.213 0.862 18 730102 1837 1983 147 0.181 0.116 2.132 8.006 0.185 0.891 19 730111 1840 1958 119 0.208 0.077 1.631 6.347 0.176 0.712 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 730112 1840 1983 144 0.238 0.084 0.160 2.531 0.195 0.748 21 730121 1833 1983 151 0.189 0.170 7.892 72.458 0.207 0.237 22 730122 1832 1945 114 0.202 0.219 8.117 69.606 0.190 0.560 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1828 TO 1983 156 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 135 0.187 0.090 2.125 13.663 0.211 0.625 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.028 0.038 2.160 20.381 0.041 0.179 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 139 0.183 0.081 1.593 6.632 0.203 0.653 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.042 0.023 1.191 5.479 0.034 0.195 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.135 0.054 0.160 2.531 0.164 0.225 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 125 0.166 0.069 0.940 4.042 0.188 0.552 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 0.208 0.092 2.132 9.520 0.221 0.748 MAXIMUM VALUE 153 0.238 0.219 8.117 72.458 0.362 0.891 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.509 0.150 0.010 -0.323 3.330 -0.006 0.900 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.006 SERIES 730021 AND 730072 75 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.900 SERIES 730101 AND 730102 147 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.44 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 153. 210. 190. 153. RBAR 0.330 0.297 0.467 0.297 SDEV 0.225 0.205 0.154 0.292 SERR 0.018 0.014 0.011 0.024 EPS 0.914 0.902 0.949 0.893 NSS 21.6 21.8 21.1 19.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1983 156 0.188 0.071 1.077 4.135 0.118 0.892 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.679 0.240 0.008 64 92 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.46 1.24 1.01 1.10 2.35 17.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.84 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 139. 23. 90. 125. 148. 156. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.886 0.792 0.743 0.719 0.709 0.688 0.681 0.656 0.633 0.627 PACF 0.886 0.033 0.164 0.125 0.121 0.024 0.116 -0.043 0.038 0.071 95% C.L. 0.160 0.257 0.313 0.356 0.391 0.423 0.451 0.476 0.499 0.519 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.845 0.643 -0.045 0.136 0.062 0.163 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 730011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00170758 0.34910646 2 730012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00140023 0.32258859 3 730021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00111734 0.26137942 4 730022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00106371 0.25396731 5 730031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00094034 0.25231037 6 730032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00176087 0.34475175 7 730041 1 0.19380854 0.07033796 0.00000000 0.14472656 8 730042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00103631 0.24278985 9 730061 1 0.20621055 0.03941474 0.00000000 0.12887250 10 730062 1 0.36723968 0.16234414 0.00000000 0.13269874 11 730071 1 0.25359508 0.01114902 0.00000000 0.04631725 12 730072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00186657 0.31181774 13 730081 1 0.27483869 0.02685911 0.00000000 0.09466399 14 730082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00126014 0.28066346 15 730091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00133688 0.21626033 16 730092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00112454 0.22922115 17 730101 1 0.33562705 0.02557527 0.00000000 0.10228488 18 730102 1 0.44150263 0.03883731 0.00000000 0.10758802 19 730111 1 0.25282255 0.03992411 0.00000000 0.15585536 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 730112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00147854 0.34566629 21 730121 1 0.32248127 0.01868523 0.00000000 0.08285070 22 730122 1 0.41168195 0.04312273 0.00000000 0.12066916 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 730011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.207 0.496 2.688 0.203 0.107 2 730012 1831 1983 153 1.001 0.284 1.629 7.381 0.232 0.191 3 730021 1845 1983 139 1.001 0.365 3.939 27.764 0.240 0.182 4 730022 1848 1983 136 0.996 0.291 1.202 4.409 0.220 0.347 5 730031 1846 1983 138 0.999 0.205 0.424 3.085 0.163 0.517 6 730032 1858 1983 126 0.997 0.242 1.626 7.869 0.165 0.505 7 730041 1859 1983 125 1.000 0.235 0.638 4.215 0.209 0.204 8 730042 1858 1983 126 1.000 0.254 2.179 14.246 0.195 0.232 9 730061 1842 1983 142 1.000 0.221 0.567 3.642 0.192 0.356 10 730062 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.321 0.618 3.973 0.181 0.723 11 730071 1831 1983 153 1.002 0.365 1.726 6.168 0.256 0.439 12 730072 1830 1919 90 0.997 0.385 1.285 3.966 0.358 0.070 13 730081 1830 1983 154 0.999 0.203 0.434 3.479 0.188 0.269 14 730082 1828 1983 156 1.001 0.253 1.147 4.369 0.202 0.373 15 730091 1845 1965 121 1.002 0.340 2.036 8.305 0.220 0.408 16 730092 1845 1983 139 1.002 0.339 2.016 9.195 0.228 0.407 17 730101 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.307 0.813 3.688 0.212 0.617 18 730102 1837 1983 147 0.999 0.273 0.817 3.377 0.182 0.672 19 730111 1840 1958 119 1.000 0.215 0.667 3.703 0.174 0.420 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 730112 1840 1983 144 0.994 0.251 1.361 5.930 0.193 0.518 21 730121 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.466 5.965 48.409 0.206 0.103 22 730122 1832 1945 114 1.002 0.520 7.400 64.208 0.190 0.428 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 136 1.000 0.297 1.772 11.094 0.209 0.368 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.002 0.085 1.796 15.802 0.041 0.184 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.279 1.243 4.389 0.202 0.390 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.001 0.106 1.377 4.618 0.032 0.302 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.994 0.203 0.424 2.688 0.163 0.070 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 125 0.999 0.235 0.638 3.688 0.188 0.204 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.001 0.340 2.016 8.305 0.220 0.505 MAXIMUM VALUE 156 1.002 0.520 7.400 64.208 0.358 0.723 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 730011 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 730012 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 730021 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 730022 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 730031 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 730032 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 730041 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 730042 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 730061 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 730062 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 730071 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 730072 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 730081 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 730082 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 730091 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 730092 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 730101 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 730102 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 730111 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 730112 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 730121 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 730122 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 730011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.203 0.470 2.712 0.203 0.079 2 730012 1831 1983 153 0.999 0.279 1.623 7.456 0.232 0.169 3 730021 1845 1983 139 0.996 0.341 3.939 27.524 0.240 0.122 4 730022 1848 1983 136 0.998 0.270 1.067 3.965 0.220 0.304 5 730031 1846 1983 138 0.999 0.193 0.562 3.999 0.163 0.457 6 730032 1858 1983 126 0.999 0.229 1.574 8.239 0.164 0.449 7 730041 1859 1983 125 0.999 0.222 0.669 4.615 0.209 0.107 8 730042 1858 1983 126 0.999 0.245 2.297 15.505 0.195 0.184 9 730061 1842 1983 142 0.999 0.211 0.641 3.945 0.192 0.284 10 730062 1863 1983 121 0.998 0.234 0.747 4.088 0.182 0.485 11 730071 1831 1983 153 0.996 0.327 1.669 5.779 0.256 0.312 12 730072 1830 1919 90 0.999 0.371 1.223 3.864 0.357 0.042 13 730081 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.194 0.497 3.959 0.188 0.197 14 730082 1828 1983 156 0.998 0.241 1.108 4.482 0.201 0.317 15 730091 1845 1965 121 0.995 0.310 2.009 8.048 0.220 0.333 16 730092 1845 1983 139 0.995 0.305 2.440 12.007 0.228 0.290 17 730101 1836 1983 148 0.994 0.243 0.354 2.993 0.212 0.369 18 730102 1837 1983 147 0.995 0.208 0.462 3.215 0.182 0.434 19 730111 1840 1958 119 0.998 0.191 0.801 3.676 0.175 0.250 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 730112 1840 1983 144 0.998 0.214 0.974 4.512 0.193 0.343 21 730121 1833 1983 151 0.997 0.453 6.629 56.299 0.207 0.041 22 730122 1832 1945 114 0.998 0.504 7.470 65.199 0.190 0.416 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 136 0.998 0.272 1.783 11.640 0.210 0.272 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.002 0.085 1.908 16.903 0.041 0.138 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 139 0.998 0.242 1.088 4.497 0.202 0.297 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.003 0.099 1.369 4.294 0.032 0.200 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.994 0.191 0.354 2.712 0.163 0.041 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 125 0.996 0.211 0.641 3.945 0.188 0.169 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 0.999 0.310 2.009 8.239 0.220 0.369 MAXIMUM VALUE 156 1.000 0.504 7.470 65.199 0.357 0.485 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.226 0.138 0.009 0.259 3.229 -0.102 0.672 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.102 SERIES 730022 AND 730091 118 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.672 SERIES 730101 AND 730102 147 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.44 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 153. 210. 190. 153. RBAR 0.214 0.238 0.295 0.313 SDEV 0.185 0.184 0.183 0.216 SERR 0.015 0.013 0.013 0.018 EPS 0.855 0.872 0.898 0.899 NSS 21.6 21.8 21.1 19.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1983 156 0.979 0.139 0.609 3.891 0.119 0.433 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.458 0.225 -0.031 60 96 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.59 1.18 1.00 1.16 2.33 53.91 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.00 0.89 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.431 0.190 0.102 0.079 0.078 0.022 0.009 -0.008 -0.037 -0.063 PACF 0.431 0.006 0.021 0.033 0.035 -0.037 0.004 -0.017 -0.037 -0.042 95% C.L. 0.160 0.187 0.192 0.194 0.195 0.195 0.195 0.195 0.195 0.196 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.187 0.432 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.350 0.145 0.057 0.097 0.049 -0.011 0.016 0.034 0.009 -0.120 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.350 2 0.342 0.025 3 0.342 0.026 -0.002 4 0.342 0.024 -0.031 0.086 5 0.343 0.023 -0.031 0.090 -0.013 6 0.342 0.027 -0.032 0.091 0.001 -0.042 7 0.344 0.027 -0.036 0.092 0.000 -0.054 0.035 8 0.343 0.028 -0.036 0.090 0.001 -0.054 0.028 0.020 9 0.344 0.029 -0.037 0.090 0.003 -0.055 0.029 0.026 -0.018 10 0.341 0.032 -0.033 0.083 0.003 -0.043 0.024 0.030 0.028 -0.135 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1083.43 1064.99 1066.89 1068.89 1069.74 1071.72 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1073.44 1075.25 1077.19 1079.14 1078.27 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.350 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 12.28 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 114.00 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.350 0.123 0.043 0.015 0.005 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 730011 1 0.009 0.081 2 730012 1 0.029 0.170 3 730021 1 0.017 0.123 4 730022 1 0.114 0.304 5 730031 1 0.212 0.460 6 730032 1 0.204 0.450 7 730041 1 0.052 0.107 8 730042 1 0.036 0.184 9 730061 1 0.104 0.291 10 730062 1 0.242 0.487 11 730071 1 0.105 0.312 12 730072 1 0.006 0.042 13 730081 1 0.050 0.211 14 730082 1 0.103 0.317 15 730091 1 0.124 0.333 16 730092 1 0.101 0.290 17 730101 1 0.148 0.373 18 730102 1 0.205 0.434 19 730111 1 0.070 0.258 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 730112 1 0.119 0.345 21 730121 1 0.007 0.041 22 730122 1 0.219 0.418 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.104 0.274 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.075 0.138 MEDIAN 1 0.103 0.298 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.112 0.203 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.006 0.041 LOWER HINGE 1 0.036 0.170 UPPER HINGE 1 0.148 0.373 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.242 0.487 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 730011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.203 0.451 2.854 0.210 0.003 2 730012 1831 1983 153 1.000 0.275 1.743 8.425 0.255 -0.003 3 730021 1845 1983 139 1.000 0.338 4.038 28.267 0.250 -0.006 4 730022 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.257 1.187 4.432 0.252 -0.048 5 730031 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.171 0.231 3.380 0.200 -0.016 6 730032 1858 1983 126 1.000 0.205 1.281 7.797 0.212 -0.022 7 730041 1859 1983 125 1.000 0.221 0.758 5.035 0.223 -0.021 8 730042 1858 1983 126 1.000 0.240 2.446 16.380 0.214 -0.008 9 730061 1842 1983 142 1.000 0.201 0.705 4.374 0.221 -0.046 10 730062 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.205 0.733 4.339 0.224 -0.037 11 730071 1831 1983 153 1.000 0.311 1.611 6.201 0.307 -0.028 12 730072 1830 1919 90 1.000 0.371 1.248 3.909 0.363 0.003 13 730081 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.189 0.478 3.888 0.211 -0.023 14 730082 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.229 1.215 5.082 0.229 -0.015 15 730091 1845 1965 121 1.000 0.292 2.458 11.141 0.260 0.040 16 730092 1845 1983 139 1.000 0.292 2.824 14.835 0.258 -0.039 17 730101 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.225 0.221 2.902 0.252 -0.034 18 730102 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.187 0.134 2.675 0.222 -0.062 19 730111 1840 1958 119 1.000 0.184 0.781 4.085 0.205 -0.016 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 730112 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.201 0.838 4.432 0.227 -0.005 21 730121 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.452 6.722 57.299 0.208 0.003 22 730122 1832 1945 114 1.003 0.449 6.667 55.813 0.244 0.153 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 136 1.000 0.259 1.762 11.707 0.238 -0.010 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.001 0.082 1.862 15.699 0.038 0.043 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.227 1.201 4.734 0.226 -0.016 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.000 0.091 1.741 7.232 0.040 0.031 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.171 0.134 2.675 0.200 -0.062 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.201 0.705 3.909 0.212 -0.034 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.292 2.446 11.141 0.252 -0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 156 1.003 0.452 6.722 57.299 0.363 0.153 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.208 0.128 0.008 0.469 3.784 -0.125 0.653 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.125 SERIES 730031 AND 730121 138 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.653 SERIES 730041 AND 730042 125 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.44 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 153. 210. 190. 153. RBAR 0.212 0.233 0.258 0.271 SDEV 0.188 0.171 0.174 0.179 SERR 0.015 0.012 0.013 0.014 EPS 0.854 0.869 0.880 0.879 NSS 21.6 21.8 21.1 19.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1983 156 0.982 0.123 0.532 4.127 0.130 0.172 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.380 0.201 -0.018 66 90 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.53 1.14 1.00 1.13 2.26 56.29 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.05 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.171 0.087 0.045 0.085 0.073 0.019 0.028 0.001 -0.008 -0.055 PACF 0.171 0.060 0.022 0.072 0.046 -0.011 0.016 -0.015 -0.018 -0.056 95% C.L. 0.160 0.165 0.166 0.166 0.167 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.168 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.033 0.171 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.010 0.053 0.018 0.070 0.057 0.002 0.026 -0.003 0.001 -0.047 PACF -0.010 0.053 0.019 0.068 0.057 -0.004 0.018 -0.009 -0.009 -0.051 95% C.L. 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.161 0.161 0.162 0.162 0.162 0.162 0.162 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.003 -0.010 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1983 156 0.982 0.130 0.577 3.959 0.120 0.365 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.362 0.190 0.109 0.118 0.097 0.043 0.035 0.004 -0.018 -0.063 PACF 0.362 0.068 0.023 0.071 0.030 -0.020 0.011 -0.024 -0.028 -0.058 95% C.L. 0.160 0.180 0.185 0.187 0.189 0.190 0.190 0.190 0.190 0.190 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.137 0.364 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.29 MINUTES