RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: NM569T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: NM569T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 730 1 Ski Valley, Wheeler Peak DENSITY_LATE PCEN - 730 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3120 3635-10530 1828 1983 730 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 730071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1923 1923 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 730082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 13 IN 2 GAPS / 1906 1916 / 1941 1942 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 730102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1857 1859 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 730011 1836 1983 148 6.222 0.375 0.535 3.741 0.053 0.367 2 730012 1831 1983 153 6.339 0.367 0.057 2.643 0.043 0.539 3 730021 1845 1983 139 6.311 0.639 0.398 3.420 0.060 0.662 4 730022 1848 1983 136 6.283 0.597 0.226 2.766 0.058 0.689 5 730031 1846 1983 138 6.308 0.469 0.198 2.889 0.053 0.585 6 730032 1858 1983 126 6.191 0.558 -0.274 2.988 0.054 0.717 7 730041 1859 1983 125 6.375 0.540 -0.560 2.722 0.041 0.766 8 730042 1858 1983 126 6.413 0.348 -0.285 2.944 0.043 0.489 9 730061 1842 1983 142 6.345 0.483 0.102 2.682 0.044 0.736 10 730062 1863 1983 121 6.584 0.340 0.245 3.126 0.041 0.403 11 730071 1831 1983 153 6.296 0.829 -1.693 5.371 0.055 0.851 12 730072 1830 1919 90 6.693 0.275 -0.079 3.793 0.042 0.197 13 730081 1830 1983 154 6.911 0.311 -0.573 3.908 0.044 0.259 14 730082 1828 1983 156 6.742 0.334 -0.404 3.189 0.038 0.498 15 730091 1845 1965 121 6.573 0.382 -0.243 3.147 0.054 0.345 16 730092 1845 1983 139 6.537 0.385 0.246 2.582 0.058 0.258 17 730101 1836 1983 148 7.288 0.388 -0.347 2.848 0.042 0.489 18 730102 1837 1983 147 7.260 0.399 -0.082 2.474 0.040 0.570 19 730111 1840 1958 119 6.181 0.253 -0.294 2.989 0.038 0.268 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 730112 1840 1983 144 6.044 0.309 -0.094 3.044 0.047 0.336 21 730121 1833 1983 151 6.916 0.708 -0.988 3.370 0.043 0.823 22 730122 1832 1945 114 6.956 0.383 -0.118 3.264 0.037 0.623 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1828 TO 1983 156 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 135 6.535 0.440 -0.183 3.177 0.047 0.521 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.348 0.149 0.490 0.626 0.007 0.198 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 139 6.394 0.384 -0.106 3.017 0.044 0.518 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.446 0.201 0.545 0.604 0.013 0.344 MINIMUM VALUE 90 6.044 0.253 -1.693 2.474 0.037 0.197 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 125 6.296 0.340 -0.347 2.766 0.041 0.345 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 6.742 0.540 0.198 3.370 0.054 0.689 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 7.288 0.829 0.535 5.371 0.060 0.851 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.172 0.247 0.016 -0.655 3.518 -0.605 0.669 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.605 SERIES 730032 AND 730121 126 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.669 SERIES 730022 AND 730032 126 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.44 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 153. 210. 190. 153. RBAR 0.338 0.284 0.190 0.150 SDEV 0.197 0.246 0.216 0.277 SERR 0.016 0.017 0.016 0.022 EPS 0.917 0.896 0.832 0.776 NSS 21.6 21.8 21.1 19.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1983 156 6.551 0.195 -0.100 3.038 0.029 0.228 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.106 -0.082 1.085 36 120 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.36 1.00 1.03 1.39 5.29 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.86 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 139. 23. 90. 125. 148. 156. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.226 0.142 0.071 0.039 -0.029 -0.028 -0.056 0.037 0.063 -0.068 PACF 0.226 0.095 0.021 0.008 -0.051 -0.019 -0.042 0.070 0.061 -0.108 95% C.L. 0.160 0.168 0.171 0.172 0.172 0.172 0.172 0.173 0.173 0.174 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.061 0.227 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 730011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00256098 6.03116655 2 730012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00069381 6.28539991 3 730021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00755387 5.78180504 4 730022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01170459 5.48132372 5 730031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00370203 6.05104208 6 730032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.01165303 5.45058775 7 730041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00212694 6.50879765 8 730042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00207853 6.28142595 9 730061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00175221 6.21936464 10 730062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00330267 6.78526449 11 730071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00995490 7.06281805 12 730072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00076693 6.72789526 13 730081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00200603 7.06611681 14 730082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00170438 6.85784721 15 730091 1 0.62565935 0.01656074 0.00000000 6.30491590 16 730092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00298597 6.32788849 17 730101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00045595 7.25440979 18 730102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00358561 7.52838659 19 730111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00075545 6.13534546 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 730112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00121853 5.95603132 21 730121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01171436 7.80625153 22 730122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00631206 7.31855774 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 730011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.057 0.333 3.552 0.052 0.306 2 730012 1831 1983 153 1.000 0.058 0.045 2.752 0.043 0.533 3 730021 1845 1983 139 1.000 0.091 0.756 5.378 0.059 0.583 4 730022 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.060 -0.261 2.648 0.058 0.274 5 730031 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.071 0.176 2.721 0.053 0.537 6 730032 1858 1983 126 1.000 0.059 -0.445 3.431 0.054 0.316 7 730041 1859 1983 125 1.000 0.084 -0.515 2.716 0.040 0.753 8 730042 1858 1983 126 1.000 0.053 -0.362 2.934 0.043 0.464 9 730061 1842 1983 142 1.000 0.075 -0.008 2.788 0.044 0.721 10 730062 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.048 -0.056 3.659 0.040 0.333 11 730071 1831 1983 153 1.000 0.117 -0.971 4.002 0.054 0.794 12 730072 1830 1919 90 1.000 0.041 -0.061 3.661 0.041 0.194 13 730081 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.043 -0.484 3.656 0.044 0.187 14 730082 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.049 0.099 2.971 0.038 0.463 15 730091 1845 1965 121 1.000 0.054 -0.316 3.260 0.053 0.232 16 730092 1845 1983 139 1.000 0.056 0.088 2.342 0.057 0.185 17 730101 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.053 -0.378 2.880 0.042 0.485 18 730102 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.050 -0.200 3.055 0.040 0.463 19 730111 1840 1958 119 1.000 0.041 -0.412 3.118 0.038 0.261 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 730112 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.050 -0.159 2.862 0.046 0.311 21 730121 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.073 -0.665 3.308 0.042 0.644 22 730122 1832 1945 114 1.000 0.046 -0.159 3.009 0.036 0.451 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 136 1.000 0.060 -0.180 3.214 0.046 0.431 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.000 0.018 0.366 0.636 0.007 0.188 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.055 -0.180 3.032 0.043 0.457 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.000 0.021 0.457 0.764 0.013 0.263 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.041 -0.971 2.342 0.036 0.185 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.049 -0.412 2.788 0.040 0.274 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.071 0.045 3.552 0.053 0.537 MAXIMUM VALUE 156 1.000 0.117 0.756 5.378 0.059 0.794 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 730011 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 730012 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 730021 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 730022 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 730031 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 730032 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 730041 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 730042 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 730061 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 730062 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 730071 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 730072 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 730081 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 730082 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 730091 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 730092 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 730101 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 730102 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 730111 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 730112 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 730121 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 730122 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 730011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.056 0.449 3.830 0.052 0.279 2 730012 1831 1983 153 1.000 0.053 0.074 3.062 0.043 0.449 3 730021 1845 1983 139 1.000 0.065 -0.093 4.533 0.059 0.248 4 730022 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.059 -0.317 2.689 0.058 0.237 5 730031 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.062 0.151 3.129 0.053 0.402 6 730032 1858 1983 126 1.000 0.056 -0.403 3.474 0.054 0.245 7 730041 1859 1983 125 1.000 0.061 0.206 4.666 0.040 0.587 8 730042 1858 1983 126 1.000 0.044 -0.235 2.934 0.043 0.252 9 730061 1842 1983 142 1.000 0.050 0.129 3.300 0.044 0.414 10 730062 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.046 0.212 4.092 0.040 0.261 11 730071 1831 1983 153 0.999 0.073 -0.811 4.224 0.054 0.476 12 730072 1830 1919 90 1.000 0.039 0.094 3.864 0.041 0.088 13 730081 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.040 -0.534 3.918 0.044 0.057 14 730082 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.043 -0.096 3.053 0.038 0.293 15 730091 1845 1965 121 1.000 0.051 -0.364 3.214 0.053 0.164 16 730092 1845 1983 139 1.000 0.054 0.067 2.257 0.057 0.142 17 730101 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.050 -0.425 2.840 0.042 0.427 18 730102 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.041 0.036 2.964 0.040 0.231 19 730111 1840 1958 119 1.000 0.038 -0.232 3.940 0.038 0.164 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 730112 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.047 -0.199 2.837 0.046 0.225 21 730121 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.059 -0.500 4.300 0.042 0.465 22 730122 1832 1945 114 1.000 0.043 -0.096 3.211 0.036 0.370 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 136 1.000 0.051 -0.131 3.470 0.046 0.294 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.000 0.009 0.302 0.653 0.007 0.137 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.051 -0.096 3.257 0.043 0.257 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.000 0.016 0.458 0.976 0.013 0.189 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.999 0.038 -0.811 2.257 0.036 0.057 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.043 -0.364 2.964 0.040 0.225 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.059 0.094 3.940 0.053 0.414 MAXIMUM VALUE 156 1.000 0.073 0.449 4.666 0.059 0.587 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.267 0.149 0.010 -0.078 2.608 -0.101 0.619 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.101 SERIES 730022 AND 730071 136 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.619 SERIES 730101 AND 730102 147 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.44 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 153. 210. 190. 153. RBAR 0.363 0.337 0.239 0.197 SDEV 0.197 0.189 0.166 0.196 SERR 0.016 0.013 0.012 0.016 EPS 0.925 0.917 0.869 0.828 NSS 21.6 21.8 21.1 19.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.029 -0.060 3.006 0.029 0.172 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.051 -0.023 0.065 62 94 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.38 1.00 1.07 1.45 5.98 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.00 0.86 0.92 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.170 0.123 0.080 0.065 -0.075 -0.076 -0.103 0.002 -0.003 -0.118 PACF 0.170 0.097 0.046 0.036 -0.107 -0.066 -0.074 0.054 0.029 -0.122 95% C.L. 0.160 0.165 0.167 0.168 0.169 0.170 0.170 0.172 0.172 0.172 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.038 0.170 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.200 0.077 0.054 0.038 -0.111 -0.073 -0.132 0.028 -0.003 -0.124 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.200 2 0.192 0.039 3 0.191 0.033 0.033 4 0.190 0.032 0.030 0.020 5 0.193 0.036 0.034 0.045 -0.132 6 0.188 0.037 0.035 0.046 -0.125 -0.034 7 0.184 0.024 0.040 0.050 -0.121 -0.014 -0.107 8 0.194 0.025 0.051 0.045 -0.125 -0.016 -0.124 0.092 9 0.194 0.025 0.051 0.045 -0.125 -0.016 -0.124 0.092 0.000 10 0.194 0.038 0.034 0.043 -0.142 -0.010 -0.117 0.096 0.027 -0.138 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 603.74 599.39 601.15 602.98 604.92 604.19 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 606.01 606.20 606.86 608.86 607.85 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.200 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.99 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.15 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.200 0.040 0.008 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 730011 1 0.081 0.280 2 730012 1 0.225 0.451 3 730021 1 0.063 0.251 4 730022 1 0.080 0.241 5 730031 1 0.182 0.402 6 730032 1 0.076 0.246 7 730041 1 0.360 0.592 8 730042 1 0.066 0.258 9 730061 1 0.190 0.415 10 730062 1 0.073 0.270 11 730071 1 0.240 0.476 12 730072 1 0.014 0.090 13 730081 1 0.005 0.057 14 730082 1 0.090 0.295 15 730091 1 0.040 0.166 16 730092 1 0.026 0.142 17 730101 1 0.215 0.429 18 730102 1 0.116 0.235 19 730111 1 0.043 0.165 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 730112 1 0.059 0.226 21 730121 1 0.244 0.475 22 730122 1 0.142 0.371 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.120 0.297 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.093 0.138 MEDIAN 1 0.080 0.264 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.131 0.188 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.005 0.057 LOWER HINGE 1 0.059 0.226 UPPER HINGE 1 0.190 0.415 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.360 0.592 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 730011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.054 0.436 3.924 0.059 -0.015 2 730012 1831 1983 153 1.000 0.047 0.172 3.734 0.054 -0.073 3 730021 1845 1983 139 1.000 0.063 -0.171 5.234 0.067 0.004 4 730022 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.057 -0.416 2.833 0.066 -0.039 5 730031 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.057 0.002 3.595 0.063 -0.063 6 730032 1858 1983 126 1.000 0.054 -0.655 4.252 0.061 -0.032 7 730041 1859 1983 125 1.000 0.049 0.245 4.250 0.051 0.073 8 730042 1858 1983 126 1.000 0.042 -0.307 2.841 0.047 -0.003 9 730061 1842 1983 142 1.000 0.045 0.355 3.293 0.053 -0.061 10 730062 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.044 0.238 4.830 0.045 -0.006 11 730071 1831 1983 153 1.000 0.064 -0.345 3.959 0.068 -0.061 12 730072 1830 1919 90 1.000 0.038 0.141 3.760 0.043 -0.006 13 730081 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.040 -0.537 3.958 0.045 -0.003 14 730082 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.041 -0.119 3.643 0.045 -0.015 15 730091 1845 1965 121 1.000 0.051 -0.391 3.442 0.058 -0.017 16 730092 1845 1983 139 1.000 0.054 0.007 2.355 0.061 -0.010 17 730101 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.045 -0.292 3.196 0.053 -0.084 18 730102 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.040 0.141 3.093 0.045 -0.055 19 730111 1840 1958 119 1.000 0.037 -0.128 3.847 0.042 -0.019 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 730112 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.046 -0.193 3.064 0.052 -0.020 21 730121 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.052 -0.785 5.316 0.053 -0.058 22 730122 1832 1945 114 1.000 0.040 0.046 3.097 0.044 -0.027 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 136 1.000 0.048 -0.116 3.705 0.053 -0.027 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.000 0.008 0.328 0.756 0.008 0.034 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.047 -0.124 3.689 0.053 -0.019 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.000 0.013 0.486 0.862 0.016 0.052 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.037 -0.785 2.355 0.042 -0.084 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.041 -0.345 3.097 0.045 -0.058 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.054 0.141 3.959 0.061 -0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 156 1.000 0.064 0.436 5.316 0.068 0.073 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.287 0.140 0.009 -0.127 2.600 -0.098 0.579 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.098 SERIES 730072 AND 730092 75 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.579 SERIES 730101 AND 730102 147 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.44 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 153. 210. 190. 153. RBAR 0.345 0.334 0.265 0.245 SDEV 0.187 0.168 0.151 0.163 SERR 0.015 0.012 0.011 0.013 EPS 0.919 0.916 0.884 0.864 NSS 21.6 21.8 21.1 19.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.028 -0.025 3.459 0.033 -0.119 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.000 0.000 0.038 59 97 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.51 1.00 1.06 1.57 6.45 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.87 0.93 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.119 0.031 0.039 0.059 -0.112 -0.044 -0.093 0.040 0.035 -0.122 PACF -0.119 0.017 0.045 0.070 -0.101 -0.076 -0.110 0.027 0.072 -0.109 95% C.L. 0.160 0.162 0.163 0.163 0.163 0.165 0.166 0.167 0.167 0.167 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.014 -0.119 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.023 0.051 0.052 -0.113 -0.070 -0.096 0.034 0.027 -0.115 PACF 0.002 0.023 0.051 0.052 -0.116 -0.076 -0.098 0.048 0.054 -0.114 95% C.L. 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.161 0.163 0.164 0.165 0.165 0.166 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.028 -0.067 2.896 0.028 0.209 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.208 0.074 0.070 0.039 -0.117 -0.107 -0.106 0.013 0.008 -0.097 PACF 0.208 0.033 0.050 0.014 -0.140 -0.066 -0.069 0.072 0.023 -0.113 95% C.L. 0.160 0.167 0.168 0.168 0.169 0.171 0.173 0.174 0.174 0.174 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.044 0.208 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.26 MINUTES