RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: NM569X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: NM569X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 730 1 Ski Valley, Wheeler Peak DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCEN - 730 2 United States of America Engelmann spruce 3120 3635-10530 1828 1983 730 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 730071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1923 1923 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 730082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 13 IN 2 GAPS / 1906 1916 / 1941 1942 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 730102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1857 1859 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 730011 1836 1983 148 0.730 0.042 0.206 3.089 0.053 0.326 2 730012 1831 1983 153 0.745 0.046 0.050 3.426 0.041 0.595 3 730021 1845 1983 139 0.737 0.067 0.163 3.337 0.063 0.591 4 730022 1848 1983 136 0.738 0.066 -0.061 2.805 0.057 0.645 5 730031 1846 1983 138 0.747 0.054 0.101 2.789 0.053 0.547 6 730032 1858 1983 126 0.734 0.063 -0.515 3.363 0.052 0.713 7 730041 1859 1983 125 0.737 0.069 -0.804 2.940 0.045 0.762 8 730042 1858 1983 126 0.740 0.043 -0.409 3.112 0.042 0.562 9 730061 1842 1983 142 0.738 0.056 -0.087 2.320 0.042 0.744 10 730062 1863 1983 121 0.766 0.045 -0.279 3.022 0.039 0.525 11 730071 1831 1983 153 0.728 0.108 -1.757 5.442 0.056 0.883 12 730072 1830 1919 90 0.786 0.038 -0.294 3.181 0.039 0.477 13 730081 1830 1983 154 0.795 0.045 -0.630 3.476 0.043 0.455 14 730082 1828 1983 156 0.775 0.047 -0.532 2.981 0.041 0.621 15 730091 1845 1965 121 0.754 0.053 -0.102 2.697 0.055 0.521 16 730092 1845 1983 139 0.747 0.046 0.203 2.421 0.063 0.179 17 730101 1836 1983 148 0.843 0.053 -0.374 2.790 0.039 0.676 18 730102 1837 1983 147 0.835 0.057 -0.062 2.088 0.042 0.687 19 730111 1840 1958 119 0.723 0.030 -0.338 3.317 0.039 0.241 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 730112 1840 1983 144 0.710 0.039 -0.144 2.772 0.052 0.259 21 730121 1833 1983 151 0.799 0.094 -0.972 3.170 0.046 0.855 22 730122 1832 1945 114 0.805 0.049 -0.127 3.063 0.040 0.667 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1828 TO 1983 156 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 135 0.760 0.055 -0.307 3.073 0.047 0.570 STANDARD DEVIATION 15 0.036 0.018 0.453 0.640 0.008 0.190 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 139 0.746 0.051 -0.211 3.043 0.044 0.593 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.048 0.018 0.455 0.527 0.012 0.210 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.710 0.030 -1.757 2.088 0.039 0.179 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 125 0.737 0.045 -0.515 2.789 0.041 0.477 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 0.786 0.063 -0.061 3.317 0.053 0.687 MAXIMUM VALUE 154 0.843 0.108 0.206 5.442 0.063 0.883 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.189 0.279 0.018 -0.495 2.977 -0.559 0.741 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.559 SERIES 730032 AND 730121 126 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.741 SERIES 730071 AND 730072 89 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.44 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 153. 210. 190. 153. RBAR 0.325 0.295 0.230 0.189 SDEV 0.193 0.272 0.220 0.271 SERR 0.016 0.019 0.016 0.022 EPS 0.912 0.901 0.863 0.821 NSS 21.6 21.8 21.1 19.6 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1983 156 0.762 0.027 -0.153 2.944 0.033 0.319 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.113 -0.081 0.123 37 119 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.33 1.00 1.06 1.38 8.68 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.06 0.00 0.86 0.92 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 139. 23. 90. 125. 148. 156. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.317 0.280 0.234 0.185 0.165 0.120 0.099 0.175 0.177 0.087 PACF 0.317 0.199 0.116 0.055 0.047 0.005 0.006 0.115 0.086 -0.046 95% C.L. 0.160 0.175 0.187 0.194 0.198 0.202 0.204 0.205 0.209 0.213 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.161 0.223 0.173 0.143 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 730011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00008908 0.72329563 2 730012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018388 0.75932235 3 730021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00071375 0.68723178 4 730022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00121173 0.65523201 5 730031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027067 0.72807258 6 730032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00122808 0.65606475 7 730041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00055619 0.77240002 8 730042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006560 0.74440384 9 730061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003565 0.74022478 10 730062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00056991 0.80038428 11 730071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00152555 0.84489250 12 730072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027921 0.79825968 13 730081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00056744 0.83923608 14 730082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00050417 0.81347328 15 730091 1 0.18427426 0.00791262 0.00000000 0.63635367 16 730092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006890 0.74265873 17 730101 1 0.05382242 0.00914356 0.00000000 0.81381816 18 730102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00071919 0.88903517 19 730111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004088 0.72589803 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 730112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005777 0.70588094 21 730121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00161593 0.92181724 22 730122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00083020 0.85299951 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 730011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.058 0.135 3.163 0.052 0.317 2 730012 1831 1983 153 1.000 0.060 0.051 3.108 0.041 0.577 3 730021 1845 1983 139 1.000 0.082 0.178 3.813 0.062 0.515 4 730022 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.061 -0.319 2.714 0.057 0.289 5 730031 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.071 0.158 2.628 0.053 0.527 6 730032 1858 1983 126 1.000 0.060 -0.744 3.862 0.052 0.400 7 730041 1859 1983 125 1.000 0.090 -0.656 2.774 0.045 0.729 8 730042 1858 1983 126 1.000 0.058 -0.389 3.047 0.042 0.557 9 730061 1842 1983 142 1.000 0.075 -0.071 2.305 0.042 0.739 10 730062 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.052 -0.403 3.605 0.039 0.416 11 730071 1831 1983 153 0.999 0.123 -1.155 4.424 0.057 0.801 12 730072 1830 1919 90 1.000 0.048 -0.139 2.769 0.038 0.456 13 730081 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.047 -0.704 4.005 0.043 0.196 14 730082 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.053 0.263 3.094 0.042 0.447 15 730091 1845 1965 121 1.000 0.056 -0.265 3.176 0.054 0.257 16 730092 1845 1983 139 1.000 0.061 0.161 2.388 0.062 0.176 17 730101 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.062 -0.261 2.618 0.039 0.651 18 730102 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.058 -0.170 2.563 0.042 0.528 19 730111 1840 1958 119 1.000 0.041 -0.298 3.297 0.038 0.236 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 730112 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.054 -0.186 2.736 0.052 0.252 21 730121 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.081 -0.748 3.354 0.046 0.674 22 730122 1832 1945 114 1.000 0.050 -0.243 2.773 0.040 0.492 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 136 1.000 0.064 -0.264 3.101 0.047 0.465 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.000 0.018 0.365 0.557 0.008 0.186 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.059 -0.252 3.070 0.044 0.474 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.000 0.018 0.454 0.640 0.012 0.288 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.999 0.041 -1.155 2.305 0.038 0.176 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.053 -0.403 2.714 0.041 0.289 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.071 0.051 3.354 0.053 0.577 MAXIMUM VALUE 156 1.000 0.123 0.263 4.424 0.062 0.801 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 730011 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 730012 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 730021 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 730022 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 730031 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 730032 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 730041 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 730042 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 730061 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 730062 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 730071 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 730072 -67 60 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 730081 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 730082 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 730091 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 730092 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 730101 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 730102 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 730111 -67 79 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 730112 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 730121 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 730122 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 730011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.056 0.294 3.281 0.052 0.270 2 730012 1831 1983 153 1.000 0.055 0.098 3.187 0.041 0.502 3 730021 1845 1983 139 1.000 0.064 -0.396 3.373 0.062 0.232 4 730022 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.059 -0.315 2.693 0.057 0.247 5 730031 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.061 0.077 3.266 0.053 0.348 6 730032 1858 1983 126 1.000 0.055 -0.581 3.720 0.052 0.281 7 730041 1859 1983 125 1.000 0.066 0.261 4.387 0.045 0.539 8 730042 1858 1983 126 1.000 0.044 -0.228 2.997 0.042 0.267 9 730061 1842 1983 142 1.000 0.050 0.061 3.172 0.042 0.423 10 730062 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.046 0.044 4.184 0.039 0.234 11 730071 1831 1983 153 0.999 0.080 -0.915 4.758 0.057 0.531 12 730072 1830 1919 90 1.000 0.041 0.158 3.378 0.038 0.280 13 730081 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.044 -0.739 4.585 0.043 0.072 14 730082 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.045 -0.015 3.123 0.042 0.220 15 730091 1845 1965 121 1.000 0.053 -0.234 3.046 0.054 0.153 16 730092 1845 1983 139 1.000 0.060 0.154 2.329 0.062 0.132 17 730101 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.055 -0.368 2.631 0.039 0.569 18 730102 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.045 0.130 2.873 0.042 0.258 19 730111 1840 1958 119 1.000 0.039 -0.188 3.844 0.038 0.173 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 730112 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.051 -0.146 2.683 0.052 0.173 21 730121 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.067 -0.520 4.241 0.046 0.528 22 730122 1832 1945 114 1.000 0.045 -0.149 3.050 0.040 0.379 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 136 1.000 0.054 -0.160 3.400 0.047 0.310 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.000 0.010 0.327 0.672 0.008 0.147 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.054 -0.147 3.226 0.044 0.268 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.000 0.015 0.466 0.847 0.012 0.203 MINIMUM VALUE 90 0.999 0.039 -0.915 2.329 0.038 0.072 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.045 -0.368 2.997 0.041 0.220 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.060 0.098 3.844 0.053 0.423 MAXIMUM VALUE 156 1.000 0.080 0.294 4.758 0.062 0.569 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.279 0.147 0.010 -0.071 2.750 -0.085 0.630 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.085 SERIES 730022 AND 730071 136 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.630 SERIES 730101 AND 730102 147 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.44 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 153. 210. 190. 153. RBAR 0.367 0.359 0.268 0.227 SDEV 0.190 0.189 0.166 0.205 SERR 0.015 0.013 0.012 0.017 EPS 0.926 0.924 0.886 0.852 NSS 21.6 21.8 21.1 19.6 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.031 -0.198 2.647 0.032 0.144 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.008 -0.004 0.047 51 105 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.69 1.01 1.12 1.81 7.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.06 0.00 0.88 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.143 0.149 0.120 0.032 -0.027 -0.044 -0.080 0.017 0.003 -0.122 PACF 0.143 0.131 0.085 -0.012 -0.059 -0.050 -0.063 0.058 0.027 -0.127 95% C.L. 0.160 0.163 0.167 0.169 0.169 0.169 0.170 0.171 0.171 0.171 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.045 0.125 0.132 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.148 0.093 0.081 0.030 -0.065 -0.078 -0.132 0.028 -0.016 -0.141 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.148 2 0.137 0.072 3 0.133 0.064 0.059 4 0.133 0.064 0.058 0.004 5 0.133 0.069 0.064 0.016 -0.083 6 0.128 0.070 0.068 0.020 -0.074 -0.068 7 0.120 0.062 0.070 0.028 -0.066 -0.055 -0.109 8 0.129 0.066 0.076 0.025 -0.072 -0.060 -0.119 0.083 9 0.129 0.067 0.076 0.026 -0.072 -0.060 -0.119 0.083 0.003 10 0.129 0.078 0.060 0.017 -0.082 -0.056 -0.108 0.092 0.021 -0.138 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 621.67 620.20 621.39 622.84 624.84 625.76 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 627.02 627.17 628.09 630.09 629.07 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.148 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.20 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.25 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.148 0.022 0.003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 730011 1 0.083 0.270 2 730012 1 0.297 0.505 3 730021 1 0.063 0.235 4 730022 1 0.094 0.254 5 730031 1 0.147 0.348 6 730032 1 0.120 0.283 7 730041 1 0.304 0.546 8 730042 1 0.073 0.270 9 730061 1 0.209 0.424 10 730062 1 0.058 0.241 11 730071 1 0.289 0.531 12 730072 1 0.084 0.284 13 730081 1 0.007 0.072 14 730082 1 0.053 0.223 15 730091 1 0.032 0.155 16 730092 1 0.039 0.132 17 730101 1 0.364 0.577 18 730102 1 0.145 0.263 19 730111 1 0.055 0.174 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 730112 1 0.038 0.174 21 730121 1 0.317 0.541 22 730122 1 0.159 0.380 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.138 0.313 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.109 0.149 MEDIAN 1 0.089 0.270 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.154 0.201 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.007 0.072 LOWER HINGE 1 0.055 0.223 UPPER HINGE 1 0.209 0.424 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.364 0.577 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 730011 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.054 0.271 3.387 0.060 -0.029 2 730012 1831 1983 153 1.000 0.048 0.049 3.961 0.055 -0.121 3 730021 1845 1983 139 1.000 0.063 -0.439 3.912 0.070 -0.020 4 730022 1848 1983 136 1.000 0.057 -0.431 2.814 0.066 -0.050 5 730031 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.057 0.055 3.882 0.062 -0.059 6 730032 1858 1983 126 1.000 0.053 -0.814 4.492 0.062 -0.060 7 730041 1859 1983 125 1.000 0.055 0.007 4.269 0.057 0.052 8 730042 1858 1983 126 1.000 0.042 -0.305 2.948 0.047 0.002 9 730061 1842 1983 142 1.000 0.045 0.218 3.392 0.052 -0.080 10 730062 1863 1983 121 1.000 0.045 0.090 4.843 0.045 -0.004 11 730071 1831 1983 153 1.000 0.068 -0.608 4.796 0.071 -0.051 12 730072 1830 1919 90 1.000 0.039 0.195 3.540 0.043 -0.013 13 730081 1830 1983 154 1.000 0.044 -0.757 4.711 0.045 -0.003 14 730082 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.043 -0.144 3.587 0.047 -0.012 15 730091 1845 1965 121 1.000 0.052 -0.248 3.063 0.059 -0.012 16 730092 1845 1983 139 1.000 0.059 0.127 2.418 0.067 -0.019 17 730101 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.045 -0.147 3.198 0.053 -0.130 18 730102 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.043 0.176 3.154 0.049 -0.072 19 730111 1840 1958 119 1.000 0.039 -0.023 3.779 0.043 -0.024 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 730112 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.051 -0.099 2.914 0.056 -0.015 21 730121 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.056 -0.747 5.379 0.061 -0.084 22 730122 1832 1945 114 1.000 0.042 0.001 3.301 0.048 -0.049 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 136 1.000 0.050 -0.162 3.715 0.055 -0.039 STANDARD DEVIATION 16 0.000 0.008 0.337 0.768 0.009 0.042 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 139 1.000 0.049 -0.061 3.563 0.055 -0.027 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.000 0.013 0.521 1.114 0.014 0.048 MINIMUM VALUE 90 1.000 0.039 -0.814 2.418 0.043 -0.130 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 125 1.000 0.043 -0.431 3.154 0.047 -0.060 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.056 0.090 4.269 0.062 -0.012 MAXIMUM VALUE 156 1.000 0.068 0.271 5.379 0.071 0.052 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.315 0.131 0.009 -0.163 2.799 -0.031 0.614 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.031 SERIES 730022 AND 730071 136 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.614 SERIES 730071 AND 730072 89 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 79.44 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 153. 210. 190. 153. RBAR 0.363 0.367 0.305 0.292 SDEV 0.173 0.163 0.152 0.154 SERR 0.014 0.011 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.925 0.927 0.903 0.890 NSS 21.6 21.8 21.1 19.6 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.030 -0.075 3.081 0.036 -0.176 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.028 -0.012 0.051 48 108 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.71 1.00 1.06 1.77 7.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.174 0.052 0.065 0.004 -0.053 -0.038 -0.101 0.049 0.035 -0.124 PACF -0.174 0.023 0.080 0.028 -0.056 -0.066 -0.120 0.025 0.074 -0.099 95% C.L. 0.160 0.165 0.165 0.166 0.166 0.166 0.167 0.168 0.169 0.169 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.031 -0.175 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 0.037 0.080 0.006 -0.063 -0.067 -0.105 0.040 0.024 -0.116 PACF 0.004 0.037 0.080 0.004 -0.069 -0.075 -0.102 0.056 0.048 -0.107 95% C.L. 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.161 0.161 0.162 0.163 0.164 0.165 0.165 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.030 -0.128 2.540 0.031 0.160 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.159 0.071 0.088 0.008 -0.072 -0.091 -0.109 0.024 0.012 -0.102 PACF 0.159 0.047 0.072 -0.020 -0.081 -0.077 -0.080 0.075 0.024 -0.106 95% C.L. 0.160 0.164 0.165 0.166 0.166 0.167 0.168 0.170 0.170 0.170 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.028 0.160 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.24 MINUTES