RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: NM570I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: NM570I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 700 1 Sierra Blanca, (Ruidoso) DENSITY_EARLY PSME - 700 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 3120 3320-10540 1554 19 700 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 700021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1774 1774 / 1871 1871 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 700052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 30 IN 1 GAPS / 1713 1742 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 700112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1823 1826 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 4.230 0.353 1.359 7.623 0.071 0.316 2 700012 1661 1983 323 4.568 0.402 0.781 5.021 0.067 0.445 3 700021 1573 1983 411 4.243 0.403 0.358 3.773 0.060 0.632 4 700022 1626 1919 294 4.047 0.287 0.958 5.016 0.067 0.267 5 700031 1669 1983 315 4.242 0.433 2.255 18.815 0.085 0.286 6 700032 1646 1983 338 4.085 0.430 0.305 3.574 0.089 0.376 7 700041 1555 1983 429 3.495 0.431 0.839 3.929 0.095 0.481 8 700042 1554 1983 430 3.250 0.380 0.819 4.064 0.092 0.432 9 700051 1685 1983 299 3.632 0.345 0.485 3.676 0.060 0.676 10 700052 1626 1983 358 3.756 0.263 0.251 3.381 0.053 0.464 11 700061 1810 1983 174 3.747 0.241 0.551 3.104 0.053 0.395 12 700062 1857 1983 127 4.216 0.276 0.124 2.576 0.061 0.311 13 700071 1878 1983 106 3.592 0.225 0.793 3.631 0.063 0.171 14 700072 1852 1983 132 3.611 0.237 0.877 4.972 0.059 0.226 15 700081 1870 1983 114 3.401 0.293 1.706 8.867 0.061 0.442 16 700082 1883 1983 101 3.340 0.321 1.064 4.965 0.078 0.372 17 700091 1723 1983 261 4.202 0.503 0.080 3.130 0.073 0.668 18 700092 1702 1983 282 3.665 0.353 1.181 6.124 0.079 0.259 19 700101 1702 1983 282 4.777 0.513 0.922 4.739 0.090 0.367 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 4.502 0.487 1.049 5.082 0.090 0.297 21 700111 1642 1983 342 4.296 0.376 0.058 3.299 0.070 0.447 22 700112 1729 1983 255 4.159 0.368 0.590 4.718 0.076 0.314 23 700121 1663 1983 321 4.035 0.450 1.131 4.300 0.070 0.595 24 700122 1667 1983 317 3.756 0.435 0.186 2.916 0.078 0.540 25 700131 1821 1983 163 3.943 0.436 1.426 6.032 0.083 0.449 26 700132 1715 1983 269 4.066 0.373 0.339 3.554 0.075 0.355 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1554 TO 1983 430 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 269 3.956 0.370 0.788 5.034 0.073 0.407 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.394 0.083 0.534 3.161 0.012 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 4.041 0.374 0.806 4.182 0.072 0.385 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.598 0.141 0.724 1.467 0.022 0.153 MINIMUM VALUE 101 3.250 0.225 0.058 2.576 0.053 0.171 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 3.632 0.293 0.339 3.554 0.061 0.311 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 4.230 0.433 1.064 5.021 0.083 0.464 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 4.777 0.513 2.255 18.815 0.095 0.676 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.386 0.151 0.008 -0.375 2.773 -0.131 0.715 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.131 SERIES 700042 AND 700091 261 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.715 SERIES 700092 AND 700132 269 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.289 0.246 0.238 0.449 0.512 0.595 0.500 0.345 0.329 0.400 SDEV 0.310 0.467 0.164 0.189 0.182 0.157 0.179 0.213 0.210 0.204 SERR 0.179 0.269 0.052 0.041 0.022 0.014 0.014 0.016 0.016 0.015 EPS 0.577 0.621 0.720 0.907 0.943 0.964 0.950 0.909 0.907 0.933 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.409 0.386 0.357 0.395 SDEV 0.192 0.171 0.203 0.188 SERR 0.013 0.011 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.940 0.940 0.934 0.943 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 3.894 0.343 -0.205 3.151 0.062 0.564 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.465 0.233 -0.444 81 349 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.13 0.24 1.00 1.03 1.28 3.81 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 288. 149. 101. 174. 323. 430. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.562 0.539 0.469 0.543 0.496 0.534 0.474 0.519 0.549 0.511 PACF 0.562 0.325 0.133 0.271 0.116 0.170 0.050 0.129 0.188 0.034 95% C.L. 0.096 0.123 0.143 0.157 0.174 0.186 0.200 0.210 0.222 0.234 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.483 0.229 0.152 0.025 0.206 0.078 0.183 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 700011 1 0.19831866 0.01957618 0.00000000 4.19560575 2 700012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00075017 4.68954563 3 700021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042863 4.33148575 4 700022 1 0.58369744 0.08832093 0.00000000 4.02519989 5 700031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00115106 4.42342281 6 700032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00134972 3.85622263 7 700041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00085492 3.31106400 8 700042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00019944 3.20748615 9 700051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00099649 3.78158116 10 700052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006634 3.76254392 11 700061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00101354 3.83615565 12 700062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00073321 4.16890144 13 700071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00055616 3.56241512 14 700072 1 0.09492811 0.02210743 0.00000000 3.58093143 15 700081 1 0.67193347 0.04961130 0.00000000 3.28522539 16 700082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00175842 3.42948127 17 700091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00420986 4.75321579 18 700092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00106257 3.81521130 19 700101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00038414 4.83116388 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 700102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00129631 4.68952274 21 700111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00200428 4.64004946 22 700112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00056725 4.22623825 23 700121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00163400 3.77169228 24 700122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00089187 3.89780092 25 700131 1 1.02245879 0.01761718 0.00000000 3.61032963 26 700132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00183841 4.31417036 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.082 1.203 6.625 0.070 0.303 2 700012 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.086 0.762 4.806 0.067 0.426 3 700021 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.094 0.437 3.616 0.061 0.618 4 700022 1626 1919 294 1.000 0.068 1.043 5.578 0.066 0.217 5 700031 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.099 2.528 22.332 0.085 0.241 6 700032 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.101 0.646 4.509 0.088 0.305 7 700041 1555 1983 429 1.000 0.120 0.922 4.026 0.095 0.445 8 700042 1554 1983 430 1.000 0.117 0.799 3.978 0.092 0.428 9 700051 1685 1983 299 1.000 0.092 0.721 3.876 0.060 0.656 10 700052 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.069 0.310 3.432 0.053 0.456 11 700061 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.063 0.432 3.018 0.052 0.362 12 700062 1857 1983 127 1.000 0.065 0.253 2.670 0.060 0.304 13 700071 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.062 0.807 3.532 0.062 0.164 14 700072 1852 1983 132 1.000 0.065 0.877 4.779 0.058 0.217 15 700081 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.071 1.349 6.342 0.060 0.221 16 700082 1883 1983 101 1.000 0.094 0.984 4.932 0.077 0.347 17 700091 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.094 0.717 4.494 0.073 0.439 18 700092 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.094 1.590 7.978 0.079 0.211 19 700101 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.107 0.961 4.911 0.090 0.364 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.105 1.027 4.746 0.089 0.266 21 700111 1642 1983 342 1.000 0.074 0.467 3.601 0.070 0.242 22 700112 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.088 0.614 4.654 0.076 0.321 23 700121 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.104 1.084 4.314 0.070 0.533 24 700122 1667 1983 317 1.000 0.114 0.300 2.876 0.078 0.523 25 700131 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.086 0.907 4.631 0.082 0.139 26 700132 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.085 0.632 3.397 0.074 0.260 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 1.000 0.089 0.860 5.140 0.073 0.346 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.000 0.017 0.470 3.705 0.012 0.136 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 1.000 0.090 0.803 4.502 0.072 0.313 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.000 0.030 0.413 1.310 0.022 0.198 MINIMUM VALUE 101 1.000 0.062 0.253 2.670 0.052 0.139 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.071 0.614 3.601 0.061 0.241 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 1.000 0.101 1.027 4.911 0.082 0.439 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 1.000 0.120 2.528 22.332 0.095 0.656 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 700011 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 700012 -67 216 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 700021 -67 275 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 700022 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 700031 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 700032 -67 226 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 700041 -67 287 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 700042 -67 288 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 700051 -67 200 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 700052 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 700061 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 700062 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 700071 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 700072 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 700081 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 700082 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 700091 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 700092 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 700101 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 700102 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 700111 -67 229 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 700112 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 700121 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 700122 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 700131 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 700132 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.081 1.215 6.655 0.070 0.278 2 700012 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.078 1.130 6.260 0.067 0.293 3 700021 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.079 1.008 5.393 0.061 0.445 4 700022 1626 1919 294 1.000 0.067 1.045 5.592 0.066 0.180 5 700031 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.094 2.516 20.966 0.085 0.161 6 700032 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.096 0.761 4.778 0.088 0.227 7 700041 1555 1983 429 1.000 0.111 0.883 4.027 0.095 0.356 8 700042 1554 1983 430 1.000 0.105 1.103 4.592 0.092 0.296 9 700051 1685 1983 299 1.000 0.079 0.553 3.731 0.060 0.527 10 700052 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.059 0.392 3.782 0.053 0.274 11 700061 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.057 0.448 3.210 0.052 0.227 12 700062 1857 1983 127 1.000 0.060 0.325 2.683 0.060 0.159 13 700071 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.061 0.823 3.582 0.062 0.122 14 700072 1852 1983 132 1.000 0.062 0.891 5.246 0.058 0.133 15 700081 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.070 1.373 6.473 0.060 0.192 16 700082 1883 1983 101 1.000 0.089 1.195 5.021 0.077 0.267 17 700091 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.090 1.222 6.353 0.073 0.375 18 700092 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.087 2.283 13.179 0.079 0.061 19 700101 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.105 1.017 5.080 0.090 0.332 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.097 1.423 6.453 0.089 0.128 21 700111 1642 1983 342 1.000 0.068 0.781 4.757 0.070 0.076 22 700112 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.079 0.807 5.691 0.076 0.149 23 700121 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.096 0.996 4.919 0.070 0.441 24 700122 1667 1983 317 0.999 0.101 0.839 4.814 0.078 0.367 25 700131 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.085 0.952 4.745 0.082 0.119 26 700132 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.082 0.803 3.630 0.074 0.195 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 1.000 0.082 1.030 5.831 0.073 0.245 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.000 0.016 0.490 3.645 0.012 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 1.000 0.081 0.974 4.970 0.072 0.227 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.000 0.028 0.392 2.233 0.022 0.183 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.999 0.057 0.325 2.683 0.052 0.061 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.068 0.803 4.027 0.061 0.149 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 1.000 0.096 1.195 6.260 0.082 0.332 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 1.000 0.111 2.516 20.966 0.095 0.527 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.393 0.116 0.006 -0.191 3.075 -0.003 0.690 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.003 SERIES 700022 AND 700082 37 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.690 SERIES 700031 AND 700032 315 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.354 0.294 0.263 0.463 0.517 0.598 0.514 0.353 0.329 0.407 SDEV 0.187 0.444 0.187 0.181 0.180 0.157 0.167 0.202 0.211 0.205 SERR 0.108 0.256 0.059 0.040 0.022 0.014 0.013 0.015 0.016 0.015 EPS 0.648 0.675 0.746 0.912 0.944 0.965 0.953 0.912 0.906 0.935 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.419 0.363 0.342 0.375 SDEV 0.188 0.161 0.173 0.179 SERR 0.013 0.010 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.942 0.934 0.930 0.938 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 0.996 0.058 1.035 4.541 0.060 0.055 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.367 0.160 -0.103 154 276 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.97 1.00 1.11 2.09 29.20 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.055 0.036 -0.113 0.037 -0.042 0.040 -0.063 0.046 0.155 0.053 PACF 0.055 0.033 -0.117 0.049 -0.040 0.029 -0.056 0.041 0.169 0.012 95% C.L. 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.101 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.078 0.062 -0.007 0.105 -0.040 0.004 -0.014 0.038 0.171 0.068 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.078 2 0.074 0.056 3 0.075 0.057 -0.016 4 0.077 0.051 -0.024 0.104 5 0.082 0.050 -0.021 0.108 -0.056 6 0.082 0.050 -0.021 0.108 -0.056 -0.001 7 0.082 0.050 -0.020 0.108 -0.055 0.000 -0.006 8 0.082 0.050 -0.018 0.105 -0.055 -0.002 -0.008 0.028 9 0.077 0.051 -0.018 0.115 -0.074 0.002 -0.017 0.013 0.181 10 0.071 0.051 -0.018 0.115 -0.071 -0.002 -0.017 0.011 0.178 0.036 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2626.17 2625.52 2626.18 2628.07 2625.42 2626.08 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2628.08 2630.06 2631.73 2619.43 2620.88 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.078 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 0.61 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 100.62 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.078 0.006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 700011 1 0.127 0.278 2 700012 1 0.093 0.295 3 700021 1 0.237 0.447 4 700022 1 0.044 0.180 5 700031 1 0.038 0.161 6 700032 1 0.080 0.227 7 700041 1 0.167 0.356 8 700042 1 0.094 0.297 9 700051 1 0.310 0.528 10 700052 1 0.125 0.277 11 700061 1 0.062 0.227 12 700062 1 0.033 0.159 13 700071 1 0.020 0.123 14 700072 1 0.021 0.133 15 700081 1 0.041 0.193 16 700082 1 0.072 0.268 17 700091 1 0.166 0.377 18 700092 1 0.009 0.061 19 700101 1 0.131 0.332 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 700102 1 0.018 0.128 21 700111 1 0.015 0.076 22 700112 1 0.060 0.149 23 700121 1 0.243 0.441 24 700122 1 0.177 0.372 25 700131 1 0.017 0.119 26 700132 1 0.055 0.196 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.095 0.246 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.081 0.122 MEDIAN 1 0.067 0.227 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.099 0.183 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.009 0.061 LOWER HINGE 1 0.033 0.149 UPPER HINGE 1 0.131 0.332 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.310 0.528 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.078 1.220 6.864 0.083 -0.064 2 700012 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.075 1.101 6.056 0.079 -0.024 3 700021 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.070 0.869 5.887 0.078 -0.094 4 700022 1626 1919 294 1.000 0.066 0.975 5.510 0.073 -0.020 5 700031 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.092 2.495 20.571 0.093 -0.018 6 700032 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.093 0.658 4.485 0.102 -0.039 7 700041 1555 1983 429 1.000 0.103 0.759 3.731 0.116 -0.077 8 700042 1554 1983 430 1.000 0.101 0.976 4.446 0.107 -0.025 9 700051 1685 1983 299 1.000 0.067 0.648 4.348 0.077 -0.109 10 700052 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.057 0.552 4.424 0.061 -0.064 11 700061 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.055 0.514 3.677 0.059 -0.024 12 700062 1857 1983 127 1.000 0.059 0.406 2.798 0.065 0.014 13 700071 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.060 0.713 3.320 0.068 -0.010 14 700072 1852 1983 132 1.000 0.061 0.908 5.473 0.062 0.008 15 700081 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.069 1.478 7.229 0.066 -0.012 16 700082 1883 1983 101 1.000 0.085 1.200 5.474 0.088 0.006 17 700091 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.083 1.111 6.162 0.089 -0.062 18 700092 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.087 2.321 13.554 0.082 -0.004 19 700101 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.099 0.860 4.273 0.107 -0.051 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.096 1.400 6.668 0.095 -0.005 21 700111 1642 1983 342 1.000 0.068 0.782 4.881 0.073 -0.007 22 700112 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.078 0.826 5.756 0.084 -0.029 23 700121 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.086 1.131 6.531 0.091 -0.109 24 700122 1667 1983 317 1.000 0.094 0.829 5.587 0.098 -0.072 25 700131 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.084 0.991 4.904 0.088 -0.007 26 700132 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.080 0.769 3.710 0.082 -0.025 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 1.000 0.079 1.019 6.012 0.083 -0.036 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.000 0.015 0.484 3.589 0.015 0.036 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 1.000 0.079 0.888 5.473 0.083 -0.024 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.000 0.026 0.372 1.813 0.020 0.057 MINIMUM VALUE 101 1.000 0.055 0.406 2.798 0.059 -0.109 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.067 0.759 4.348 0.073 -0.064 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 1.000 0.092 1.131 6.162 0.093 -0.007 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 1.000 0.103 2.495 20.571 0.116 0.014 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.444 0.103 0.006 -0.212 3.560 0.021 0.712 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.021 SERIES 700022 AND 700082 37 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.712 SERIES 700031 AND 700032 315 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.524 0.405 0.274 0.481 0.524 0.620 0.583 0.424 0.386 0.491 SDEV 0.174 0.305 0.201 0.203 0.170 0.144 0.143 0.164 0.187 0.170 SERR 0.100 0.176 0.064 0.044 0.021 0.013 0.011 0.013 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.787 0.773 0.757 0.917 0.945 0.968 0.964 0.933 0.926 0.953 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.483 0.400 0.410 0.418 SDEV 0.161 0.147 0.138 0.153 SERR 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.955 0.943 0.947 0.948 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 0.996 0.059 0.825 4.116 0.070 -0.208 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.338 0.131 -0.080 155 275 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 1.13 1.00 1.12 2.25 14.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.208 0.039 -0.131 0.072 -0.073 0.062 -0.109 0.041 0.132 0.012 PACF -0.208 -0.004 -0.129 0.021 -0.056 0.023 -0.088 -0.014 0.160 0.046 95% C.L. 0.096 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.104 0.105 0.105 0.106 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.043 -0.208 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.031 -0.118 0.035 -0.050 0.028 -0.096 0.050 0.155 0.043 PACF -0.001 -0.031 -0.119 0.034 -0.058 0.017 -0.094 0.039 0.161 0.020 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.102 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.001 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 0.996 0.058 1.045 4.619 0.059 0.075 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.074 -0.034 -0.118 0.021 -0.046 0.017 -0.090 0.055 0.162 0.056 PACF 0.074 -0.040 -0.113 0.038 -0.060 0.014 -0.091 0.059 0.159 0.010 95% C.L. 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.100 0.102 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.007 0.074 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.41 MINUTES