RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: NM570L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: NM570L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 700 1 Sierra Blanca, (Ruidoso) WIDTH_LATE PSME - 700 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 3120 3320-10540 1554 19 700 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 700021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 3 GAPS / 1774 1774 / 1836 1840 / 1871 1871 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 700022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1773 1777 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 700041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1917 1921 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 700052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 30 IN 1 GAPS / 1713 1742 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 700092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1955 1959 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 700112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1823 1826 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 0.206 0.106 1.434 5.263 0.283 0.621 2 700012 1661 1983 323 0.244 0.138 1.219 4.982 0.324 0.710 3 700021 1573 1983 411 0.148 0.115 3.502 17.870 0.245 0.862 4 700022 1626 1919 294 0.152 0.091 2.665 11.250 0.203 0.853 5 700031 1669 1983 315 0.210 0.119 2.063 12.392 0.235 0.771 6 700032 1646 1983 338 0.220 0.089 0.871 4.089 0.280 0.583 7 700041 1555 1983 429 0.126 0.083 2.301 8.669 0.281 0.753 8 700042 1554 1983 430 0.145 0.079 2.179 9.125 0.253 0.731 9 700051 1685 1983 299 0.178 0.083 1.454 4.744 0.288 0.581 10 700052 1626 1983 358 0.141 0.082 1.778 6.375 0.262 0.701 11 700061 1810 1983 174 0.257 0.082 1.158 4.826 0.240 0.485 12 700062 1857 1983 127 0.499 0.220 1.243 4.771 0.303 0.491 13 700071 1878 1983 106 0.672 0.264 0.826 4.025 0.326 0.423 14 700072 1852 1983 132 0.450 0.159 1.172 4.804 0.313 0.263 15 700081 1870 1983 114 0.489 0.249 1.020 4.561 0.287 0.616 16 700082 1883 1983 101 0.584 0.321 1.466 6.359 0.323 0.604 17 700091 1723 1983 261 0.328 0.341 1.999 6.996 0.263 0.884 18 700092 1702 1983 282 0.230 0.190 1.756 5.985 0.250 0.831 19 700101 1702 1983 282 0.254 0.113 1.134 4.697 0.220 0.715 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 0.238 0.107 0.837 3.606 0.260 0.694 21 700111 1642 1983 342 0.177 0.106 1.063 3.603 0.303 0.732 22 700112 1729 1983 255 0.122 0.050 0.972 3.944 0.290 0.571 23 700121 1663 1983 321 0.271 0.144 1.045 4.604 0.331 0.615 24 700122 1667 1983 317 0.259 0.159 1.418 5.934 0.343 0.692 25 700131 1821 1983 163 0.258 0.063 -0.112 2.752 0.175 0.551 26 700132 1715 1983 269 0.234 0.074 0.796 4.189 0.263 0.420 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1554 TO 1983 430 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 268 0.273 0.140 1.433 6.170 0.275 0.644 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.146 0.079 0.717 3.329 0.041 0.150 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 0.236 0.110 1.231 4.815 0.280 0.656 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.094 0.075 0.758 2.186 0.053 0.161 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.122 0.050 -0.112 2.752 0.175 0.263 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.177 0.083 1.020 4.189 0.250 0.571 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 0.271 0.159 1.778 6.375 0.303 0.732 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 0.672 0.341 3.502 17.870 0.343 0.884 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.364 0.189 0.010 -0.228 3.225 -0.213 0.885 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.213 SERIES 700062 AND 700121 127 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.885 SERIES 700091 AND 700092 261 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.380 0.151 0.222 0.401 0.342 0.367 0.472 0.318 0.389 0.346 SDEV 0.108 0.185 0.195 0.167 0.186 0.175 0.188 0.221 0.182 0.237 SERR 0.062 0.107 0.062 0.037 0.023 0.016 0.014 0.017 0.014 0.017 EPS 0.674 0.471 0.701 0.889 0.891 0.914 0.944 0.899 0.926 0.917 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.251 0.246 0.331 0.273 SDEV 0.235 0.231 0.186 0.226 SERR 0.016 0.014 0.011 0.013 EPS 0.884 0.891 0.927 0.904 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 0.209 0.071 1.022 4.486 0.216 0.621 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.421 0.273 0.040 208 222 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.46 3.45 1.00 1.47 4.92 27.34 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.95 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 288. 149. 101. 174. 323. 430. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.619 0.513 0.484 0.425 0.386 0.449 0.380 0.356 0.359 0.321 PACF 0.619 0.210 0.176 0.059 0.052 0.200 -0.022 0.032 0.047 -0.006 95% C.L. 0.096 0.128 0.146 0.160 0.170 0.178 0.189 0.196 0.202 0.207 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.437 0.446 0.125 0.187 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 700011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00049791 0.27774730 2 700012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00066417 0.35115552 3 700021 1 0.59469759 0.04070926 0.00000000 0.11239330 4 700022 1 0.48796037 0.04967420 0.00000000 0.11737823 5 700031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00094400 0.35883510 6 700032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00033823 0.27691570 7 700041 1 0.28235155 0.01564297 0.00000000 0.08343272 8 700042 1 0.23753397 0.01784348 0.00000000 0.11442602 9 700051 1 0.22573492 0.01159157 0.00000000 0.11549681 10 700052 1 0.24227874 0.00664939 0.00000000 0.05313236 11 700061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00012240 0.26818085 12 700062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00142793 0.40711662 13 700071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00351996 0.86058223 14 700072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00034471 0.47330210 15 700081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00292076 0.65662783 16 700082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00616331 0.89878416 17 700091 1 1.21286392 0.01882183 0.00000000 0.08474320 18 700092 1 0.67171478 0.01588072 0.00000000 0.08086657 19 700101 1 0.27036968 0.00836049 0.00000000 0.15055473 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 700102 1 0.29376435 0.00454606 0.00000000 0.07492169 21 700111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00080228 0.31452075 22 700112 1 0.13278380 0.00734784 0.00000000 0.06296516 23 700121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032141 0.32277453 24 700122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00079063 0.38441601 25 700131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00042676 0.29321519 26 700132 1 0.12979101 0.03663592 0.00000000 0.22134592 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.459 1.372 5.426 0.282 0.559 2 700012 1661 1983 323 0.995 0.489 1.163 4.783 0.323 0.622 3 700021 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.425 4.296 37.918 0.244 0.612 4 700022 1626 1919 294 1.000 0.293 0.996 5.726 0.202 0.533 5 700031 1669 1983 315 1.005 0.335 1.252 6.690 0.235 0.517 6 700032 1646 1983 338 0.997 0.387 1.266 5.435 0.279 0.537 7 700041 1555 1983 429 1.001 0.351 1.014 5.392 0.279 0.403 8 700042 1554 1983 430 1.000 0.375 1.053 4.451 0.253 0.537 9 700051 1685 1983 299 1.000 0.303 0.705 4.191 0.287 0.226 10 700052 1626 1983 358 1.001 0.314 1.131 6.045 0.255 0.346 11 700061 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.320 1.189 4.905 0.238 0.479 12 700062 1857 1983 127 0.998 0.427 1.277 4.864 0.301 0.486 13 700071 1878 1983 106 0.999 0.374 1.268 5.679 0.322 0.381 14 700072 1852 1983 132 1.000 0.350 1.163 4.801 0.311 0.265 15 700081 1870 1983 114 0.997 0.508 2.183 11.177 0.284 0.585 16 700082 1883 1983 101 0.993 0.431 1.242 5.279 0.319 0.509 17 700091 1723 1983 261 1.005 0.450 1.279 5.787 0.263 0.651 18 700092 1702 1983 282 1.004 0.342 0.984 4.509 0.249 0.497 19 700101 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.373 1.847 9.340 0.220 0.626 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 1.001 0.384 1.148 5.555 0.259 0.567 21 700111 1642 1983 342 1.056 0.522 1.824 7.673 0.302 0.589 22 700112 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.335 1.307 6.536 0.288 0.343 23 700121 1663 1983 321 0.997 0.536 1.261 5.264 0.330 0.614 24 700122 1667 1983 317 0.984 0.531 1.547 6.322 0.342 0.625 25 700131 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.237 0.199 3.167 0.174 0.530 26 700132 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.297 0.723 4.572 0.262 0.362 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 1.001 0.390 1.334 6.980 0.273 0.500 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.012 0.082 0.713 6.515 0.041 0.118 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 1.000 0.374 1.247 5.430 0.279 0.531 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.003 0.115 0.255 1.521 0.053 0.186 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.984 0.237 0.199 3.167 0.174 0.226 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.998 0.335 1.053 4.801 0.249 0.403 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 1.001 0.450 1.307 6.322 0.302 0.589 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 1.056 0.536 4.296 37.918 0.342 0.651 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 700011 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 700012 -67 216 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 700021 -67 275 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 700022 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 700031 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 700032 -67 226 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 700041 -67 287 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 700042 -67 288 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 700051 -67 200 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 700052 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 700061 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 700062 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 700071 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 700072 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 700081 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 700082 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 700091 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 700092 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 700101 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 700102 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 700111 -67 229 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 700112 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 700121 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 700122 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 700131 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 700132 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 0.998 0.447 1.285 4.977 0.282 0.549 2 700012 1661 1983 323 0.992 0.452 0.964 4.339 0.323 0.576 3 700021 1573 1983 411 0.996 0.360 3.365 29.631 0.245 0.532 4 700022 1626 1919 294 0.999 0.285 0.955 6.109 0.203 0.510 5 700031 1669 1983 315 0.995 0.309 1.080 5.413 0.235 0.460 6 700032 1646 1983 338 0.998 0.349 1.107 5.445 0.279 0.445 7 700041 1555 1983 429 0.998 0.347 1.038 5.466 0.279 0.389 8 700042 1554 1983 430 0.996 0.361 1.122 4.760 0.253 0.509 9 700051 1685 1983 299 0.998 0.293 0.687 4.157 0.287 0.185 10 700052 1626 1983 358 0.999 0.309 1.162 6.106 0.255 0.326 11 700061 1810 1983 174 0.999 0.302 1.077 4.486 0.238 0.444 12 700062 1857 1983 127 0.997 0.367 1.288 5.085 0.302 0.332 13 700071 1878 1983 106 0.999 0.368 1.251 5.659 0.322 0.361 14 700072 1852 1983 132 0.998 0.332 1.015 4.219 0.311 0.225 15 700081 1870 1983 114 0.982 0.440 2.091 10.297 0.283 0.522 16 700082 1883 1983 101 0.994 0.410 1.331 5.917 0.319 0.464 17 700091 1723 1983 261 0.995 0.438 1.508 6.813 0.263 0.646 18 700092 1702 1983 282 0.996 0.310 1.067 5.326 0.249 0.409 19 700101 1702 1983 282 0.997 0.345 1.555 6.902 0.220 0.572 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 0.996 0.362 0.996 4.576 0.259 0.526 21 700111 1642 1983 342 0.991 0.338 0.905 4.457 0.302 0.278 22 700112 1729 1983 255 0.999 0.330 1.272 6.416 0.288 0.328 23 700121 1663 1983 321 0.995 0.433 1.058 4.687 0.331 0.478 24 700122 1667 1983 317 0.996 0.461 1.153 4.546 0.342 0.559 25 700131 1821 1983 163 0.997 0.218 0.227 2.943 0.174 0.456 26 700132 1715 1983 269 0.998 0.288 0.796 4.920 0.262 0.318 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 0.996 0.356 1.206 6.294 0.273 0.438 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.004 0.062 0.548 4.946 0.041 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 0.997 0.348 1.093 5.206 0.279 0.458 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.003 0.100 0.290 1.560 0.053 0.195 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.982 0.218 0.227 2.943 0.174 0.185 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.995 0.309 0.996 4.546 0.249 0.332 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 0.998 0.410 1.285 6.106 0.302 0.526 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 0.999 0.461 3.365 29.631 0.342 0.646 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.301 0.119 0.007 -0.346 3.186 -0.129 0.581 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.129 SERIES 700022 AND 700082 37 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.581 SERIES 700062 AND 700071 106 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.334 0.117 0.234 0.421 0.325 0.428 0.428 0.370 0.362 0.338 SDEV 0.121 0.256 0.167 0.169 0.185 0.162 0.185 0.209 0.193 0.222 SERR 0.070 0.148 0.053 0.037 0.023 0.015 0.014 0.016 0.015 0.016 EPS 0.628 0.398 0.716 0.897 0.883 0.932 0.934 0.918 0.918 0.915 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.283 0.261 0.322 0.265 SDEV 0.237 0.225 0.170 0.213 SERR 0.016 0.014 0.010 0.012 EPS 0.900 0.898 0.924 0.901 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 0.966 0.218 0.418 3.341 0.197 0.415 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.499 0.274 -0.013 128 302 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 0.97 1.00 1.14 2.10 27.41 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.414 0.289 0.205 0.145 0.106 0.142 0.038 -0.026 -0.035 -0.042 PACF 0.414 0.142 0.054 0.020 0.012 0.085 -0.076 -0.077 -0.020 -0.011 95% C.L. 0.096 0.112 0.118 0.122 0.123 0.124 0.126 0.126 0.126 0.126 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.190 0.356 0.141 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.407 0.256 0.212 0.109 0.071 0.108 0.027 -0.026 -0.001 -0.056 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.407 2 0.362 0.109 3 0.352 0.076 0.092 4 0.355 0.078 0.101 -0.027 5 0.355 0.078 0.101 -0.028 0.001 6 0.355 0.080 0.094 -0.033 -0.025 0.073 7 0.359 0.078 0.092 -0.028 -0.021 0.092 -0.054 8 0.356 0.083 0.091 -0.030 -0.016 0.096 -0.034 -0.055 9 0.357 0.084 0.090 -0.029 -0.015 0.095 -0.035 -0.060 0.013 10 0.357 0.080 0.088 -0.024 -0.016 0.093 -0.030 -0.055 0.032 -0.055 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3764.21 3688.50 3685.38 3683.77 3685.45 3687.45 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3687.16 3687.92 3688.61 3690.54 3691.24 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.352 0.076 0.092 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 18.21 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 122.27 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.352 0.200 0.189 0.114 0.073 0.051 0.034 0.023 0.015 0.0102 0.007 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 700011 3 0.340 0.449 0.047 0.190 2 700012 3 0.365 0.443 0.148 0.105 3 700021 3 0.291 0.533 -0.035 0.064 4 700022 3 0.313 0.370 0.143 0.164 5 700031 3 0.236 0.407 0.058 0.099 6 700032 3 0.277 0.316 0.111 0.228 7 700041 3 0.206 0.284 0.197 0.083 8 700042 3 0.335 0.334 0.185 0.182 9 700051 3 0.106 0.115 0.162 0.184 10 700052 3 0.166 0.230 0.240 0.052 11 700061 3 0.201 0.437 0.016 0.013 12 700062 3 0.128 0.337 0.035 -0.124 13 700071 3 0.140 0.371 0.000 -0.095 14 700072 3 0.058 0.239 -0.060 0.040 15 700081 3 0.327 0.453 0.273 -0.171 16 700082 3 0.257 0.510 -0.074 -0.072 17 700091 3 0.435 0.556 0.048 0.123 18 700092 3 0.221 0.294 0.187 0.111 19 700101 3 0.351 0.461 0.155 0.050 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 700102 3 0.304 0.427 0.162 0.036 21 700111 3 0.120 0.230 0.064 0.173 22 700112 3 0.130 0.283 0.076 0.106 23 700121 3 0.241 0.419 0.111 0.021 24 700122 3 0.361 0.420 0.160 0.114 25 700131 3 0.224 0.418 0.065 0.050 26 700132 3 0.141 0.243 0.144 0.115 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.241 0.368 0.101 0.071 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.098 0.107 0.089 0.100 MEDIAN 3 0.238 0.389 0.111 0.091 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.186 0.159 0.114 0.087 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.058 0.115 -0.074 -0.171 LOWER HINGE 3 0.141 0.284 0.047 0.036 UPPER HINGE 3 0.327 0.443 0.162 0.123 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.435 0.556 0.273 0.228 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.363 1.446 6.120 0.349 0.000 2 700012 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.360 0.989 5.013 0.378 0.000 3 700021 1573 1983 411 1.001 0.298 2.052 17.147 0.296 0.037 4 700022 1626 1919 294 1.000 0.236 1.239 7.674 0.239 0.006 5 700031 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.271 0.920 5.884 0.286 -0.014 6 700032 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.299 1.118 6.267 0.324 -0.023 7 700041 1555 1983 429 1.000 0.310 1.117 6.065 0.324 -0.008 8 700042 1554 1983 430 1.000 0.295 0.980 5.202 0.298 -0.015 9 700051 1685 1983 299 1.000 0.278 0.864 5.050 0.300 -0.014 10 700052 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.282 1.128 5.996 0.286 0.001 11 700061 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.270 1.104 5.417 0.287 -0.002 12 700062 1857 1983 127 1.000 0.343 1.445 6.327 0.349 -0.001 13 700071 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.341 1.321 5.859 0.376 0.001 14 700072 1852 1983 132 1.000 0.323 0.986 4.126 0.347 0.003 15 700081 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.361 1.932 10.085 0.350 0.008 16 700082 1883 1983 101 1.000 0.359 1.550 7.070 0.357 0.016 17 700091 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.329 1.338 7.336 0.331 0.002 18 700092 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.274 1.268 6.410 0.283 0.006 19 700101 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.278 1.184 6.294 0.283 0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.302 0.749 4.878 0.322 0.002 21 700111 1642 1983 342 1.000 0.318 0.881 5.049 0.335 -0.012 22 700112 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.308 1.074 7.006 0.335 0.005 23 700121 1663 1983 321 1.001 0.376 0.976 4.440 0.394 0.004 24 700122 1667 1983 317 1.000 0.370 0.958 4.841 0.403 0.009 25 700131 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.192 0.390 3.426 0.206 0.000 26 700132 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.267 0.787 4.404 0.292 -0.004 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 1.000 0.308 1.146 6.284 0.320 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.000 0.045 0.351 2.589 0.046 0.011 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 1.000 0.305 1.111 5.940 0.324 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.000 0.065 0.364 1.397 0.062 0.008 MINIMUM VALUE 101 1.000 0.192 0.390 3.426 0.206 -0.023 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.278 0.958 5.013 0.287 -0.004 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 1.000 0.343 1.321 6.410 0.349 0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 1.001 0.376 2.052 17.147 0.403 0.037 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.319 0.116 0.006 -0.460 3.973 -0.198 0.640 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.198 SERIES 700022 AND 700082 37 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.640 SERIES 700011 AND 700012 288 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.456 0.276 0.200 0.420 0.401 0.454 0.441 0.381 0.386 0.317 SDEV 0.036 0.205 0.161 0.129 0.143 0.129 0.145 0.179 0.177 0.166 SERR 0.021 0.119 0.051 0.028 0.018 0.012 0.011 0.014 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.738 0.656 0.673 0.897 0.913 0.938 0.937 0.921 0.926 0.907 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.359 0.350 0.344 0.260 SDEV 0.162 0.180 0.149 0.187 SERR 0.011 0.011 0.009 0.011 EPS 0.927 0.931 0.931 0.898 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 0.977 0.199 0.320 3.182 0.230 -0.015 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.421 0.205 0.005 170 260 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.91 1.00 1.08 1.99 106.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.015 -0.022 -0.061 -0.031 -0.032 0.133 -0.013 -0.052 -0.025 -0.002 PACF -0.015 -0.022 -0.062 -0.034 -0.036 0.128 -0.015 -0.053 -0.015 0.001 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.002 -0.003 0.007 -0.032 -0.037 0.126 -0.015 -0.058 -0.014 -0.003 PACF -0.002 -0.003 0.007 -0.032 -0.037 0.126 -0.015 -0.059 -0.018 0.005 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.001 -0.002 -0.003 0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 0.977 0.219 0.512 3.304 0.194 0.401 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.400 0.249 0.213 0.104 0.066 0.136 0.025 -0.035 -0.014 -0.025 PACF 0.400 0.106 0.098 -0.033 0.001 0.109 -0.078 -0.066 -0.002 0.002 95% C.L. 0.096 0.111 0.116 0.119 0.120 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.122 0.122 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.178 0.347 0.071 0.098 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.40 MINUTES