RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: NM570N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: NM570N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 700 1 Sierra Blanca, (Ruidoso) DENSITY_MINIMUM PSME - 700 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 3120 3320-10540 1554 19 700 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 700021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1774 1774 / 1871 1871 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 700032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 2 GAPS / 1852 1856 / 1884 1888 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 700052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 30 IN 1 GAPS / 1713 1742 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 700111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1953 1957 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 700112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1823 1826 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 700122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1954 1958 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 0.361 0.035 1.842 11.597 0.084 0.231 2 700012 1661 1983 323 0.392 0.040 1.298 7.772 0.080 0.346 3 700021 1573 1983 411 0.369 0.040 0.343 3.509 0.076 0.555 4 700022 1626 1919 294 0.359 0.029 0.877 4.363 0.075 0.248 5 700031 1669 1983 315 0.369 0.037 0.466 3.995 0.085 0.326 6 700032 1646 1983 338 0.356 0.041 0.450 4.123 0.094 0.371 7 700041 1555 1983 429 0.307 0.046 0.786 4.093 0.113 0.509 8 700042 1554 1983 430 0.279 0.036 1.014 4.889 0.104 0.386 9 700051 1685 1983 299 0.311 0.033 0.585 3.681 0.069 0.620 10 700052 1626 1983 358 0.318 0.026 -0.290 4.267 0.062 0.460 11 700061 1810 1983 174 0.317 0.024 0.389 3.390 0.064 0.402 12 700062 1857 1983 127 0.355 0.026 0.473 3.307 0.068 0.291 13 700071 1878 1983 106 0.285 0.023 0.652 3.620 0.078 0.099 14 700072 1852 1983 132 0.298 0.026 -0.028 7.106 0.079 0.170 15 700081 1870 1983 114 0.281 0.027 2.851 16.902 0.072 0.306 16 700082 1883 1983 101 0.280 0.029 1.143 5.084 0.080 0.373 17 700091 1723 1983 261 0.365 0.047 0.001 3.331 0.083 0.625 18 700092 1702 1983 282 0.314 0.034 0.977 5.231 0.091 0.266 19 700101 1702 1983 282 0.412 0.051 1.147 6.179 0.099 0.391 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 0.379 0.047 1.314 6.980 0.097 0.328 21 700111 1642 1983 342 0.379 0.035 0.171 4.056 0.074 0.350 22 700112 1729 1983 255 0.359 0.038 0.941 7.296 0.094 0.163 23 700121 1663 1983 321 0.339 0.042 1.185 4.975 0.082 0.519 24 700122 1667 1983 317 0.318 0.040 0.285 3.394 0.091 0.483 25 700131 1821 1983 163 0.344 0.049 1.437 5.629 0.099 0.489 26 700132 1715 1983 269 0.349 0.035 0.267 3.564 0.082 0.342 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1554 TO 1983 430 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 268 0.338 0.036 0.791 5.474 0.084 0.371 STANDARD DEVIATION 96 0.037 0.008 0.661 3.005 0.013 0.135 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 0.346 0.036 0.719 4.315 0.082 0.361 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.054 0.012 0.804 2.560 0.018 0.192 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.279 0.023 -0.290 3.307 0.062 0.099 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.311 0.029 0.343 3.620 0.075 0.291 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 0.365 0.041 1.147 6.179 0.094 0.483 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 0.412 0.051 2.851 16.902 0.113 0.625 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.391 0.145 0.008 -0.162 2.699 -0.045 0.737 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.045 SERIES 700042 AND 700091 261 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.737 SERIES 700031 AND 700132 269 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.333 0.299 0.234 0.459 0.492 0.558 0.470 0.328 0.338 0.388 SDEV 0.283 0.449 0.193 0.158 0.193 0.150 0.174 0.199 0.205 0.199 SERR 0.163 0.259 0.061 0.034 0.024 0.014 0.013 0.015 0.016 0.014 EPS 0.626 0.681 0.716 0.911 0.938 0.958 0.944 0.903 0.910 0.930 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.390 0.371 0.361 0.408 SDEV 0.193 0.189 0.192 0.185 SERR 0.013 0.012 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.935 0.936 0.936 0.946 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 0.334 0.033 -0.158 3.088 0.071 0.541 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.431 0.215 -0.028 71 359 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.14 0.26 1.00 1.07 1.33 2.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 288. 149. 101. 174. 323. 430. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.539 0.563 0.473 0.556 0.490 0.549 0.466 0.526 0.531 0.530 PACF 0.539 0.383 0.131 0.270 0.108 0.182 0.031 0.124 0.164 0.075 95% C.L. 0.096 0.121 0.144 0.157 0.175 0.187 0.201 0.211 0.223 0.235 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.490 0.174 0.191 0.032 0.204 0.079 0.198 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 700011 1 0.01195382 0.02395899 0.00000000 0.35957479 2 700012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004310 0.39868489 3 700021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00001246 0.37190762 4 700022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002363 0.35525575 5 700031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013424 0.39000383 6 700032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009196 0.34091267 7 700041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013807 0.27714518 8 700042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002761 0.27272370 9 700051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005408 0.31878117 10 700052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006795 0.30340543 11 700061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00016007 0.33147764 12 700062 1 0.05588255 0.13767268 0.00000000 0.35158578 13 700071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009452 0.28041509 14 700072 1 0.01478047 0.02804689 0.00000000 0.29419091 15 700081 1 0.07884543 0.12884341 0.00000000 0.27575994 16 700082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004205 0.27755842 17 700091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035025 0.41040435 18 700092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004719 0.32093284 19 700101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000927 0.41354585 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 700102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00016441 0.40314734 21 700111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017126 0.40766391 22 700112 1 0.02398964 0.03158201 0.00000000 0.35572043 23 700121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013434 0.31718710 24 700122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009120 0.33123747 25 700131 1 0.13165028 0.01696257 0.00000000 0.29993525 26 700132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017828 0.37276730 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.097 1.711 10.453 0.084 0.225 2 700012 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.102 1.241 7.374 0.079 0.339 3 700021 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.109 0.356 3.492 0.077 0.551 4 700022 1626 1919 294 1.000 0.081 0.882 4.295 0.075 0.244 5 700031 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.094 0.463 3.469 0.085 0.245 6 700032 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.113 0.622 4.945 0.093 0.334 7 700041 1555 1983 429 1.000 0.137 0.937 4.194 0.113 0.424 8 700042 1554 1983 430 1.000 0.130 0.991 4.792 0.104 0.379 9 700051 1685 1983 299 1.000 0.104 0.654 3.841 0.069 0.613 10 700052 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.082 -0.234 3.919 0.063 0.475 11 700061 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.073 0.414 3.427 0.063 0.326 12 700062 1857 1983 127 1.000 0.070 0.383 3.262 0.067 0.198 13 700071 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.079 0.658 3.459 0.077 0.079 14 700072 1852 1983 132 1.000 0.088 0.015 6.804 0.078 0.155 15 700081 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.081 1.856 8.613 0.072 0.090 16 700082 1883 1983 101 1.000 0.105 1.181 5.180 0.079 0.368 17 700091 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.108 0.335 4.211 0.083 0.447 18 700092 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.107 1.112 5.698 0.091 0.256 19 700101 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.123 1.161 6.229 0.099 0.390 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.119 1.360 6.737 0.097 0.278 21 700111 1642 1983 342 1.000 0.083 0.692 5.297 0.073 0.241 22 700112 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.106 0.951 6.616 0.093 0.180 23 700121 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.116 1.021 4.351 0.082 0.467 24 700122 1667 1983 317 1.000 0.127 0.345 3.167 0.090 0.493 25 700131 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.100 1.001 4.718 0.099 0.055 26 700132 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.092 0.536 3.321 0.082 0.234 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 1.000 0.101 0.794 5.072 0.083 0.311 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.000 0.018 0.486 1.820 0.013 0.146 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 1.000 0.103 0.787 4.535 0.082 0.302 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.000 0.030 0.699 2.737 0.018 0.199 MINIMUM VALUE 101 1.000 0.070 -0.234 3.167 0.063 0.055 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.083 0.414 3.492 0.075 0.225 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 1.000 0.113 1.112 6.229 0.093 0.424 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 1.000 0.137 1.856 10.453 0.113 0.613 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 700011 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 700012 -67 216 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 700021 -67 275 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 700022 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 700031 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 700032 -67 226 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 700041 -67 287 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 700042 -67 288 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 700051 -67 200 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 700052 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 700061 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 700062 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 700071 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 700072 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 700081 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 700082 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 700091 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 700092 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 700101 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 700102 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 700111 -67 229 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 700112 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 700121 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 700122 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 700131 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 700132 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.096 1.702 10.471 0.084 0.206 2 700012 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.094 1.666 9.800 0.079 0.207 3 700021 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.090 0.943 5.030 0.077 0.327 4 700022 1626 1919 294 1.000 0.077 0.880 4.258 0.075 0.187 5 700031 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.086 0.803 4.933 0.085 0.101 6 700032 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.105 0.791 5.792 0.093 0.234 7 700041 1555 1983 429 1.000 0.126 0.934 4.254 0.113 0.311 8 700042 1554 1983 430 0.999 0.119 1.289 5.584 0.104 0.252 9 700051 1685 1983 299 0.999 0.089 0.426 3.699 0.069 0.475 10 700052 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.075 -0.365 4.675 0.063 0.361 11 700061 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.066 0.368 3.445 0.063 0.206 12 700062 1857 1983 127 1.000 0.068 0.556 3.661 0.068 0.150 13 700071 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.077 0.741 3.745 0.077 0.035 14 700072 1852 1983 132 1.000 0.083 -0.207 8.321 0.078 0.073 15 700081 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.079 1.932 9.352 0.072 0.055 16 700082 1883 1983 101 1.000 0.098 1.302 5.266 0.079 0.287 17 700091 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.099 0.976 6.725 0.083 0.327 18 700092 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.096 1.964 11.678 0.091 0.043 19 700101 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.117 1.226 6.116 0.099 0.333 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.109 1.870 9.567 0.097 0.137 21 700111 1642 1983 342 1.000 0.075 1.178 8.013 0.073 0.066 22 700112 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.099 1.172 8.364 0.094 0.058 23 700121 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.109 1.039 5.602 0.082 0.388 24 700122 1667 1983 317 0.999 0.113 0.801 4.815 0.090 0.341 25 700131 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.099 1.026 4.827 0.099 0.034 26 700132 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.087 0.740 3.721 0.082 0.144 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 1.000 0.094 0.991 6.220 0.083 0.205 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.000 0.016 0.576 2.418 0.013 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 1.000 0.095 0.959 5.425 0.082 0.206 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.000 0.027 0.548 4.063 0.018 0.254 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.999 0.066 -0.365 3.445 0.063 0.034 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.079 0.741 4.258 0.075 0.073 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 1.000 0.105 1.289 8.321 0.093 0.327 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 1.000 0.126 1.964 11.678 0.113 0.475 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.390 0.110 0.006 -0.111 3.078 0.051 0.705 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.051 SERIES 700042 AND 700051 299 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.705 SERIES 700031 AND 700032 315 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.407 0.343 0.257 0.468 0.496 0.561 0.479 0.334 0.335 0.391 SDEV 0.171 0.420 0.177 0.158 0.187 0.148 0.166 0.191 0.205 0.201 SERR 0.099 0.242 0.056 0.034 0.023 0.014 0.013 0.015 0.016 0.015 EPS 0.697 0.723 0.741 0.914 0.939 0.959 0.946 0.905 0.909 0.931 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.399 0.344 0.354 0.384 SDEV 0.185 0.173 0.166 0.178 SERR 0.013 0.011 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.938 0.929 0.934 0.940 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 0.997 0.065 1.092 4.948 0.068 0.029 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.349 0.151 -0.084 147 283 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.74 1.00 1.10 1.83 11.89 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.029 0.073 -0.103 0.051 -0.054 0.070 -0.081 0.046 0.119 0.061 PACF 0.029 0.072 -0.108 0.053 -0.043 0.056 -0.070 0.033 0.147 0.021 95% C.L. 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.100 0.100 0.101 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.020 0.034 0.075 -0.108 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.031 0.092 -0.001 0.107 -0.042 0.036 0.001 0.033 0.138 0.060 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.031 2 0.028 0.091 3 0.029 0.091 -0.006 4 0.029 0.082 -0.009 0.100 5 0.034 0.082 -0.005 0.101 -0.048 6 0.035 0.079 -0.005 0.099 -0.049 0.022 7 0.035 0.080 -0.006 0.099 -0.050 0.021 0.007 8 0.035 0.079 -0.005 0.097 -0.049 0.020 0.007 0.018 9 0.032 0.078 -0.008 0.105 -0.064 0.021 -0.005 0.013 0.149 10 0.026 0.078 -0.008 0.104 -0.061 0.016 -0.005 0.009 0.147 0.041 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2726.62 2728.21 2726.64 2728.62 2726.34 2727.34 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2729.14 2731.11 2732.98 2725.39 2726.67 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.029 0.082 -0.009 0.100 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.91 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.95 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.029 0.083 -0.004 0.106 0.005 0.017 0.000 0.012 0.001 0.0027 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 700011 4 0.155 0.143 0.353 -0.008 -0.062 2 700012 4 0.094 0.185 0.087 -0.038 0.202 3 700021 4 0.174 0.235 0.207 0.013 0.111 4 700022 4 0.085 0.134 0.104 0.090 0.120 5 700031 4 0.050 0.081 0.188 0.001 0.020 6 700032 4 0.094 0.198 0.181 -0.047 0.074 7 700041 4 0.135 0.241 0.171 0.038 0.045 8 700042 4 0.107 0.200 0.057 0.082 0.153 9 700051 4 0.273 0.354 0.183 0.034 0.076 10 700052 4 0.197 0.254 0.265 0.047 -0.022 11 700061 4 0.088 0.155 0.088 0.063 0.160 12 700062 4 0.056 0.178 -0.111 0.091 -0.082 13 700071 4 0.041 0.024 0.059 -0.113 -0.137 14 700072 4 0.018 0.075 -0.106 -0.035 -0.025 15 700081 4 0.040 0.050 0.117 -0.026 -0.084 16 700082 4 0.137 0.279 0.006 -0.091 -0.109 17 700091 4 0.183 0.254 0.163 -0.014 0.158 18 700092 4 0.038 0.017 0.081 0.097 0.122 19 700101 4 0.141 0.267 0.167 0.028 0.016 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 700102 4 0.030 0.137 0.050 -0.063 0.078 21 700111 4 0.044 0.071 0.079 -0.055 0.171 22 700112 4 0.112 -0.026 0.168 0.178 0.186 23 700121 4 0.224 0.256 0.151 0.079 0.162 24 700122 4 0.171 0.241 0.130 0.112 0.098 25 700131 4 0.043 0.060 0.089 -0.132 0.128 26 700132 4 0.069 0.113 0.119 0.017 0.163 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.108 0.161 0.117 0.013 0.066 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.067 0.097 0.098 0.075 0.101 MEDIAN 4 0.094 0.167 0.118 0.015 0.088 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.111 0.166 0.092 0.117 0.179 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.018 -0.026 -0.111 -0.132 -0.137 LOWER HINGE 4 0.044 0.075 0.079 -0.038 -0.022 UPPER HINGE 4 0.155 0.241 0.171 0.079 0.158 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.273 0.354 0.353 0.178 0.202 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.088 1.542 10.305 0.088 -0.005 2 700012 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.089 1.904 11.875 0.086 -0.007 3 700021 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.082 0.922 6.006 0.085 -0.004 4 700022 1626 1919 294 1.000 0.074 0.926 4.392 0.081 -0.011 5 700031 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.084 0.907 5.590 0.088 -0.001 6 700032 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.100 0.658 5.663 0.102 0.001 7 700041 1555 1983 429 1.000 0.117 0.837 3.777 0.127 -0.002 8 700042 1554 1983 430 1.000 0.112 1.212 5.410 0.116 -0.007 9 700051 1685 1983 299 1.000 0.076 0.347 4.065 0.082 -0.004 10 700052 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.067 -0.173 4.667 0.070 0.001 11 700061 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.063 0.383 3.754 0.069 0.001 12 700062 1857 1983 127 1.000 0.067 0.638 3.965 0.073 0.008 13 700071 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.076 0.674 3.705 0.078 -0.012 14 700072 1852 1983 132 1.000 0.082 0.056 7.185 0.082 0.000 15 700081 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.078 2.005 9.873 0.073 -0.011 16 700082 1883 1983 101 1.000 0.093 1.584 6.348 0.091 -0.020 17 700091 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.091 1.009 6.604 0.092 0.022 18 700092 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.094 1.973 11.349 0.091 -0.004 19 700101 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.109 1.037 5.140 0.113 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.108 1.850 9.638 0.104 0.000 21 700111 1642 1983 342 1.000 0.073 1.125 7.828 0.076 -0.004 22 700112 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.093 1.593 10.468 0.091 0.002 23 700121 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.096 1.480 8.431 0.093 -0.003 24 700122 1667 1983 317 1.000 0.102 1.161 6.736 0.103 0.000 25 700131 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.097 0.905 4.702 0.101 0.002 26 700132 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.084 0.799 4.101 0.087 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 1.000 0.088 1.052 6.599 0.090 -0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.000 0.015 0.575 2.580 0.014 0.007 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 1.000 0.089 0.967 5.834 0.088 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.000 0.021 0.868 4.038 0.020 0.005 MINIMUM VALUE 101 1.000 0.063 -0.173 3.705 0.069 -0.020 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.076 0.674 4.392 0.081 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 1.000 0.097 1.542 8.431 0.101 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 1.000 0.117 2.005 11.875 0.127 0.022 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.436 0.101 0.006 -0.086 3.038 0.118 0.739 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.118 SERIES 700022 AND 700081 50 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.739 SERIES 700031 AND 700032 315 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.575 0.398 0.273 0.496 0.539 0.612 0.553 0.400 0.384 0.443 SDEV 0.156 0.354 0.168 0.165 0.160 0.124 0.121 0.167 0.187 0.166 SERR 0.090 0.204 0.053 0.036 0.020 0.011 0.009 0.013 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.820 0.768 0.755 0.922 0.948 0.966 0.959 0.927 0.925 0.943 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.454 0.371 0.399 0.411 SDEV 0.152 0.163 0.139 0.157 SERR 0.011 0.010 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.950 0.936 0.945 0.946 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 0.997 0.067 1.022 4.832 0.074 -0.110 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.291 0.114 -0.056 131 299 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.96 1.00 1.09 2.05 9.04 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.109 -0.059 -0.129 -0.033 -0.079 0.063 -0.112 0.032 0.108 0.046 PACF -0.109 -0.072 -0.147 -0.074 -0.119 0.008 -0.143 -0.031 0.088 0.036 95% C.L. 0.096 0.098 0.098 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.103 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.058 -0.148 -0.116 -0.169 -0.092 -0.120 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.009 -0.017 -0.017 -0.034 -0.120 0.028 -0.110 0.035 0.124 0.057 PACF -0.009 -0.017 -0.017 -0.035 -0.121 0.024 -0.117 0.029 0.115 0.045 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.101 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.017 -0.010 -0.018 -0.018 -0.035 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 0.997 0.066 1.111 5.062 0.069 0.000 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.072 -0.045 0.074 -0.117 0.043 -0.111 0.053 0.102 0.071 PACF 0.000 0.072 -0.045 0.069 -0.112 0.034 -0.093 0.039 0.136 0.038 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.100 0.101 0.101 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.37 MINUTES