RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: NM570T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: NM570T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 700 1 Sierra Blanca, (Ruidoso) DENSITY_LATE PSME - 700 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 3120 3320-10540 1554 19 700 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 700021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1774 1774 / 1871 1871 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 700052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 30 IN 1 GAPS / 1713 1742 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 700102 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1752 1752 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 700112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1823 1826 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 8.164 0.825 -0.886 3.927 0.072 0.621 2 700012 1661 1983 323 8.401 1.007 -3.645 28.498 0.077 0.350 3 700021 1573 1983 411 7.439 0.789 -0.566 2.973 0.059 0.753 4 700022 1626 1919 294 6.553 0.906 0.373 2.422 0.066 0.819 5 700031 1669 1983 315 7.521 0.703 -0.350 3.104 0.078 0.435 6 700032 1646 1983 338 7.467 0.591 -0.346 3.260 0.070 0.379 7 700041 1555 1983 429 6.141 0.750 0.479 3.402 0.074 0.695 8 700042 1554 1983 430 6.364 0.608 0.318 3.512 0.071 0.561 9 700051 1685 1983 299 6.862 0.801 -0.643 3.412 0.083 0.604 10 700052 1626 1983 358 7.328 0.848 -0.471 3.080 0.064 0.754 11 700061 1810 1983 174 8.171 0.540 -0.114 3.580 0.059 0.322 12 700062 1857 1983 127 8.457 0.466 -0.117 3.078 0.051 0.242 13 700071 1878 1983 106 7.991 0.460 -0.240 3.332 0.061 0.103 14 700072 1852 1983 132 7.653 0.645 -0.661 3.082 0.062 0.551 15 700081 1870 1983 114 7.670 0.640 -1.129 5.040 0.055 0.641 16 700082 1883 1983 101 7.201 0.670 -0.663 4.108 0.069 0.552 17 700091 1723 1983 261 7.574 0.538 -0.112 3.743 0.058 0.474 18 700092 1702 1983 282 7.272 0.586 0.120 2.862 0.058 0.580 19 700101 1702 1983 282 8.156 1.607 -3.656 18.457 0.173 0.047 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 8.625 0.614 -0.335 3.109 0.062 0.386 21 700111 1642 1983 342 7.584 0.832 -0.381 3.082 0.070 0.688 22 700112 1729 1983 255 7.346 0.636 -0.570 3.454 0.077 0.338 23 700121 1663 1983 321 8.248 0.689 -0.621 3.692 0.064 0.515 24 700122 1667 1983 317 7.741 0.772 -0.716 3.493 0.068 0.642 25 700131 1821 1983 163 6.417 0.769 0.074 2.252 0.090 0.546 26 700132 1715 1983 269 8.194 0.487 -0.119 2.828 0.055 0.295 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1554 TO 1983 430 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 269 7.559 0.722 -0.576 4.876 0.071 0.496 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.677 0.228 0.985 5.683 0.023 0.197 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 7.579 0.679 -0.366 3.367 0.067 0.548 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.892 0.210 0.547 0.613 0.014 0.291 MINIMUM VALUE 101 6.141 0.460 -3.656 2.252 0.051 0.047 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 7.272 0.591 -0.661 3.080 0.059 0.350 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 8.164 0.801 -0.114 3.692 0.074 0.641 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 8.625 1.607 0.479 28.498 0.173 0.819 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.236 0.212 0.012 -0.087 2.512 -0.337 0.766 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.337 SERIES 700122 AND 700131 163 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.766 SERIES 700081 AND 700082 101 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.412 0.443 0.211 0.291 0.375 0.453 0.371 0.312 0.428 0.267 SDEV 0.116 0.310 0.316 0.272 0.231 0.319 0.310 0.247 0.220 0.260 SERR 0.067 0.179 0.100 0.059 0.028 0.029 0.024 0.019 0.017 0.019 EPS 0.702 0.799 0.687 0.831 0.904 0.938 0.918 0.896 0.937 0.885 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.228 0.290 0.230 0.218 SDEV 0.243 0.227 0.248 0.231 SERR 0.017 0.014 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.870 0.911 0.885 0.875 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 7.470 0.453 -0.311 3.107 0.049 0.441 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.020 0.015 0.802 64 366 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.56 1.00 1.08 1.64 6.86 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.12 0.00 0.87 0.99 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 288. 149. 101. 174. 323. 430. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.440 0.418 0.383 0.389 0.395 0.314 0.331 0.343 0.380 0.312 PACF 0.440 0.278 0.171 0.161 0.148 0.010 0.067 0.089 0.129 0.004 95% C.L. 0.096 0.114 0.127 0.137 0.147 0.157 0.163 0.169 0.175 0.183 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.315 0.217 0.170 0.105 0.124 0.147 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 700011 1 2.69615507 0.00151914 0.00000000 5.98252058 2 700012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00193687 8.08746529 3 700021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00409327 8.27604580 4 700022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00485078 7.26844978 5 700031 1 0.97610939 0.02937153 0.00000000 7.41678333 6 700032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00114655 7.27246428 7 700041 1 1.90640235 0.00712945 0.00000000 5.54954576 8 700042 1 1.46715009 0.01690839 0.00000000 6.16437387 9 700051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00494355 7.60340595 10 700052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00608979 8.45276737 11 700061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00099937 8.08324528 12 700062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00361332 8.22567654 13 700071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00167242 7.90156317 14 700072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00615853 8.06226921 15 700081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00702124 8.07372189 16 700082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00870577 7.64458799 17 700091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00136918 7.75365353 18 700092 1 1.23475897 0.00784205 0.00000000 6.77707720 19 700101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00328860 8.62182617 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 700102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00212788 8.93508148 21 700111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00503860 8.44853401 22 700112 1 1.02026260 0.05529447 0.00000000 7.26444149 23 700121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00141275 8.47583294 24 700122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00347827 8.29417992 25 700131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00918317 5.66348314 26 700132 1 0.68858755 0.01683572 0.00000000 8.04495525 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.096 -0.743 3.764 0.072 0.584 2 700012 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.118 -3.780 30.363 0.076 0.334 3 700021 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.085 -0.598 4.469 0.059 0.617 4 700022 1626 1919 294 1.000 0.120 0.164 2.812 0.065 0.761 5 700031 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.090 -0.280 3.229 0.078 0.390 6 700032 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.078 -0.301 3.266 0.070 0.354 7 700041 1555 1983 429 1.000 0.093 0.010 2.847 0.073 0.481 8 700042 1554 1983 430 1.000 0.081 -0.024 3.077 0.071 0.386 9 700051 1685 1983 299 1.000 0.101 -0.392 3.623 0.083 0.461 10 700052 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.075 -0.504 4.407 0.064 0.391 11 700061 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.066 -0.067 3.639 0.059 0.319 12 700062 1857 1983 127 1.000 0.053 0.027 3.264 0.051 0.172 13 700071 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.057 -0.130 3.215 0.060 0.094 14 700072 1852 1983 132 1.000 0.079 -0.422 2.730 0.062 0.469 15 700081 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.079 -0.608 3.983 0.055 0.596 16 700082 1883 1983 101 1.000 0.087 -0.206 3.786 0.068 0.477 17 700091 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.070 -0.047 3.632 0.058 0.452 18 700092 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.069 -0.059 2.980 0.058 0.435 19 700101 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.190 -4.088 21.282 0.172 0.028 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.068 -0.199 2.813 0.062 0.339 21 700111 1642 1983 342 1.000 0.089 -0.178 3.246 0.070 0.492 22 700112 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.084 -0.591 3.486 0.077 0.321 23 700121 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.082 -0.552 3.673 0.064 0.497 24 700122 1667 1983 317 1.000 0.092 -0.394 3.020 0.068 0.576 25 700131 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.100 0.090 2.697 0.090 0.361 26 700132 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.056 -0.235 2.744 0.055 0.205 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 1.000 0.087 -0.543 5.079 0.071 0.407 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.000 0.027 1.028 6.259 0.023 0.164 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 1.000 0.083 -0.257 3.265 0.067 0.413 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.000 0.023 0.493 0.784 0.015 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 101 1.000 0.053 -4.088 2.697 0.051 0.028 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.070 -0.552 2.980 0.059 0.334 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 1.000 0.093 -0.059 3.764 0.073 0.492 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 1.000 0.190 0.164 30.363 0.172 0.761 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 700011 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 700012 -67 216 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 700021 -67 275 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 700022 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 700031 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 700032 -67 226 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 700041 -67 287 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 700042 -67 288 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 700051 -67 200 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 700052 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 700061 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 700062 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 700071 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 700072 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 700081 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 700082 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 700091 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 700092 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 700101 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 700102 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 700111 -67 229 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 700112 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 700121 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 700122 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 700131 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 700132 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.093 -0.711 3.760 0.072 0.553 2 700012 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.106 -5.097 44.966 0.076 0.227 3 700021 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.082 -0.621 4.785 0.059 0.586 4 700022 1626 1919 294 0.999 0.093 -0.412 2.960 0.065 0.595 5 700031 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.083 -0.229 3.355 0.078 0.280 6 700032 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.072 -0.352 3.554 0.070 0.243 7 700041 1555 1983 429 1.000 0.088 0.055 3.028 0.074 0.429 8 700042 1554 1983 430 1.000 0.079 -0.081 3.010 0.071 0.364 9 700051 1685 1983 299 1.000 0.094 -0.657 3.940 0.083 0.378 10 700052 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.072 -0.527 4.195 0.064 0.341 11 700061 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.057 0.029 3.797 0.059 0.123 12 700062 1857 1983 127 1.000 0.051 0.161 3.321 0.051 0.113 13 700071 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.054 -0.023 3.351 0.060 -0.036 14 700072 1852 1983 132 1.000 0.064 -0.144 3.427 0.061 0.147 15 700081 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.057 -0.140 3.445 0.054 0.235 16 700082 1883 1983 101 1.000 0.072 -0.294 3.621 0.068 0.227 17 700091 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.062 0.040 3.739 0.058 0.308 18 700092 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.065 -0.059 3.109 0.058 0.368 19 700101 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.188 -4.210 22.198 0.172 -0.017 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.061 -0.098 2.643 0.062 0.187 21 700111 1642 1983 342 1.000 0.084 -0.360 3.266 0.070 0.428 22 700112 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.081 -0.598 3.492 0.077 0.272 23 700121 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.074 -0.691 3.835 0.064 0.368 24 700122 1667 1983 317 1.000 0.076 -0.422 3.500 0.068 0.371 25 700131 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.095 0.073 2.472 0.090 0.287 26 700132 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.052 -0.189 2.968 0.055 0.096 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 1.000 0.079 -0.598 5.759 0.071 0.287 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.000 0.027 1.228 8.814 0.023 0.163 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 1.000 0.075 -0.261 3.469 0.067 0.283 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.000 0.026 0.538 0.688 0.015 0.184 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.999 0.051 -5.097 2.472 0.051 -0.036 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.062 -0.598 3.109 0.059 0.187 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 1.000 0.088 -0.059 3.797 0.074 0.371 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 1.000 0.188 0.161 44.966 0.172 0.595 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.251 0.165 0.009 0.107 2.825 -0.136 0.696 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.136 SERIES 700071 AND 700111 106 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.696 SERIES 700062 AND 700071 106 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.436 0.342 0.246 0.313 0.384 0.455 0.392 0.336 0.419 0.284 SDEV 0.126 0.351 0.268 0.276 0.237 0.314 0.289 0.241 0.226 0.263 SERR 0.073 0.203 0.085 0.060 0.029 0.029 0.022 0.018 0.017 0.019 EPS 0.722 0.722 0.729 0.845 0.907 0.938 0.924 0.906 0.935 0.893 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.242 0.310 0.238 0.227 SDEV 0.234 0.222 0.221 0.217 SERR 0.016 0.014 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.878 0.918 0.889 0.881 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 1.004 0.049 -0.100 3.730 0.049 0.121 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.057 -0.029 0.086 145 285 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.75 1.00 1.12 1.87 32.16 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.121 0.173 0.065 0.054 0.063 -0.045 -0.009 -0.003 0.035 0.026 PACF 0.121 0.160 0.029 0.018 0.043 -0.072 -0.018 0.014 0.041 0.021 95% C.L. 0.096 0.098 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.042 0.102 0.162 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.124 0.262 0.064 0.084 0.034 -0.021 0.007 -0.004 0.032 0.027 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.124 2 0.093 0.251 3 0.090 0.250 0.009 4 0.090 0.247 0.008 0.012 5 0.090 0.247 0.006 0.012 0.008 6 0.091 0.248 0.007 0.025 0.012 -0.053 7 0.091 0.248 0.007 0.025 0.012 -0.053 0.002 8 0.091 0.248 0.006 0.024 0.012 -0.056 0.000 0.012 9 0.090 0.248 0.008 0.024 0.011 -0.057 -0.008 0.009 0.034 10 0.089 0.248 0.008 0.026 0.011 -0.057 -0.008 0.002 0.031 0.026 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2378.19 2373.56 2347.60 2349.57 2351.50 2353.48 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2354.26 2356.26 2358.19 2359.70 2361.40 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.093 0.251 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 7.73 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 108.38 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.093 0.259 0.047 0.069 0.018 0.019 0.006 0.005 0.002 0.0015 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 700011 2 0.419 0.336 0.394 2 700012 2 0.086 0.197 0.133 3 700021 2 0.373 0.480 0.188 4 700022 2 0.442 0.384 0.358 5 700031 2 0.173 0.192 0.316 6 700032 2 0.135 0.175 0.280 7 700041 2 0.256 0.322 0.250 8 700042 2 0.189 0.282 0.229 9 700051 2 0.341 0.210 0.444 10 700052 2 0.253 0.207 0.392 11 700061 2 0.055 0.100 0.199 12 700062 2 0.024 0.106 0.076 13 700071 2 0.003 -0.035 0.021 14 700072 2 0.092 0.134 0.109 15 700081 2 0.064 0.215 0.085 16 700082 2 0.063 0.210 0.092 17 700091 2 0.118 0.272 0.123 18 700092 2 0.208 0.289 0.216 19 700101 2 0.011 -0.018 -0.045 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 700102 2 0.076 0.151 0.197 21 700111 2 0.291 0.287 0.329 22 700112 2 0.123 0.217 0.207 23 700121 2 0.197 0.286 0.224 24 700122 2 0.175 0.300 0.194 25 700131 2 0.092 0.263 0.092 26 700132 2 0.021 0.088 0.082 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.165 0.217 0.200 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.127 0.115 0.123 MEDIAN 2 0.129 0.213 0.198 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.189 0.136 0.188 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.003 -0.035 -0.045 LOWER HINGE 2 0.064 0.151 0.092 UPPER HINGE 2 0.253 0.287 0.280 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.442 0.480 0.444 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.071 -0.566 4.009 0.083 -0.030 2 700012 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.102 -5.707 54.387 0.082 -0.017 3 700021 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.065 -0.526 4.245 0.072 -0.002 4 700022 1626 1919 294 1.000 0.069 -0.293 3.299 0.078 -0.025 5 700031 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.076 -0.288 3.796 0.084 -0.019 6 700032 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.067 -0.219 3.428 0.074 -0.012 7 700041 1555 1983 429 1.000 0.077 0.247 3.372 0.087 -0.041 8 700042 1554 1983 430 1.000 0.072 -0.029 3.182 0.081 -0.026 9 700051 1685 1983 299 1.000 0.078 -0.335 3.523 0.089 -0.092 10 700052 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.062 -0.499 4.190 0.068 -0.013 11 700061 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.056 0.101 3.528 0.060 0.003 12 700062 1857 1983 127 1.000 0.051 0.221 3.546 0.054 0.006 13 700071 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.053 -0.019 3.302 0.059 -0.001 14 700072 1852 1983 132 1.000 0.062 -0.125 3.805 0.065 0.032 15 700081 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.055 -0.092 3.408 0.061 -0.003 16 700082 1883 1983 101 1.000 0.069 -0.341 3.551 0.076 0.001 17 700091 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.059 -0.077 3.805 0.066 -0.009 18 700092 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.059 -0.033 3.286 0.067 -0.042 19 700101 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.188 -4.163 21.877 0.171 0.004 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.059 0.062 2.712 0.067 -0.010 21 700111 1642 1983 342 1.000 0.072 -0.337 3.416 0.080 -0.053 22 700112 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.076 -0.460 3.639 0.085 -0.018 23 700121 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.067 -0.756 4.318 0.074 -0.033 24 700122 1667 1983 317 1.000 0.069 -0.371 3.749 0.078 -0.012 25 700131 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.090 -0.153 2.364 0.101 -0.002 26 700132 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.052 -0.163 3.089 0.057 -0.006 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 1.000 0.072 -0.574 6.186 0.078 -0.016 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.000 0.026 1.325 10.477 0.022 0.024 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 1.000 0.068 -0.253 3.537 0.075 -0.012 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.000 0.017 0.428 0.503 0.017 0.024 MINIMUM VALUE 101 1.000 0.051 -5.707 2.364 0.054 -0.092 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.059 -0.460 3.302 0.066 -0.026 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 1.000 0.076 -0.033 3.805 0.083 -0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 1.000 0.188 0.247 54.387 0.171 0.032 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.286 0.179 0.010 -0.251 2.448 -0.137 0.694 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.137 SERIES 700071 AND 700111 106 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.694 SERIES 700062 AND 700071 106 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.559 0.362 0.312 0.380 0.385 0.485 0.510 0.422 0.502 0.351 SDEV 0.155 0.269 0.207 0.195 0.206 0.302 0.273 0.219 0.155 0.224 SERR 0.089 0.156 0.065 0.043 0.025 0.028 0.021 0.017 0.012 0.016 EPS 0.810 0.739 0.789 0.880 0.907 0.945 0.952 0.933 0.952 0.919 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.273 0.303 0.255 0.262 SDEV 0.209 0.201 0.200 0.206 SERR 0.014 0.013 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.895 0.916 0.898 0.900 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 1.003 0.049 -0.137 4.221 0.056 -0.124 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.020 0.008 0.040 134 296 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.72 1.00 1.10 1.82 39.37 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.124 -0.106 -0.003 -0.004 0.067 -0.073 -0.029 -0.007 0.068 0.038 PACF -0.124 -0.123 -0.034 -0.023 0.061 -0.060 -0.034 -0.030 0.057 0.048 95% C.L. 0.096 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.032 -0.140 -0.124 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.004 -0.007 -0.027 -0.016 0.055 -0.073 -0.027 -0.005 0.058 0.031 PACF -0.004 -0.007 -0.028 -0.017 0.055 -0.074 -0.027 -0.003 0.056 0.024 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.098 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 -0.004 -0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 1.002 0.050 -0.063 3.430 0.051 0.111 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.111 0.244 0.032 0.036 0.053 -0.056 -0.010 -0.012 0.025 0.020 PACF 0.111 0.235 -0.016 -0.024 0.052 -0.072 -0.024 0.024 0.034 0.012 95% C.L. 0.096 0.098 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.068 0.085 0.237 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.37 MINUTES