RUN: fix002 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: NM570X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: NM570X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 700 1 Sierra Blanca, (Ruidoso) DENSITY_MAXIMUM PSME - 700 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 3120 3320-10540 1554 19 700 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 700021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1774 1774 / 1871 1871 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 700052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 30 IN 1 GAPS / 1713 1742 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 700112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1823 1826 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 0.909 0.089 -1.222 4.936 0.066 0.626 2 700012 1661 1983 323 0.938 0.083 -1.295 5.486 0.050 0.718 3 700021 1573 1983 411 0.826 0.090 -0.667 3.156 0.060 0.744 4 700022 1626 1919 294 0.725 0.109 0.168 2.226 0.071 0.823 5 700031 1669 1983 315 0.846 0.080 -0.673 3.467 0.073 0.480 6 700032 1646 1983 338 0.841 0.063 -0.767 3.754 0.065 0.391 7 700041 1555 1983 429 0.685 0.087 0.350 3.086 0.073 0.731 8 700042 1554 1983 430 0.719 0.068 0.124 3.584 0.064 0.616 9 700051 1685 1983 299 0.776 0.090 -0.767 3.546 0.085 0.589 10 700052 1626 1983 358 0.831 0.099 -0.617 3.152 0.063 0.777 11 700061 1810 1983 174 0.924 0.055 -0.006 3.461 0.054 0.269 12 700062 1857 1983 127 0.952 0.049 -0.239 2.906 0.047 0.265 13 700071 1878 1983 106 0.911 0.046 -0.161 2.986 0.054 0.058 14 700072 1852 1983 132 0.874 0.070 -0.684 3.689 0.064 0.489 15 700081 1870 1983 114 0.873 0.070 -1.453 5.893 0.053 0.658 16 700082 1883 1983 101 0.821 0.077 -0.813 4.019 0.067 0.560 17 700091 1723 1983 261 0.848 0.055 -0.357 3.893 0.053 0.455 18 700092 1702 1983 282 0.823 0.067 -0.079 2.708 0.050 0.680 19 700101 1702 1983 282 0.936 0.094 -0.869 4.192 0.064 0.684 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 0.960 0.061 -0.431 3.254 0.055 0.388 21 700111 1642 1983 342 0.846 0.092 -0.756 3.434 0.068 0.681 22 700112 1729 1983 255 0.825 0.072 -0.734 4.006 0.078 0.310 23 700121 1663 1983 321 0.915 0.072 -0.856 4.706 0.061 0.485 24 700122 1667 1983 317 0.863 0.078 -0.954 4.314 0.061 0.652 25 700131 1821 1983 163 0.718 0.102 0.042 2.094 0.100 0.615 26 700132 1715 1983 269 0.921 0.049 -0.128 2.781 0.047 0.345 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1554 TO 1983 430 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 269 0.850 0.076 -0.533 3.644 0.063 0.542 STANDARD DEVIATION 97 0.077 0.017 0.473 0.904 0.012 0.188 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 0.847 0.074 -0.670 3.507 0.063 0.602 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.092 0.027 0.684 0.933 0.014 0.290 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.685 0.046 -1.453 2.094 0.047 0.058 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 0.823 0.063 -0.813 3.086 0.054 0.391 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 0.915 0.090 -0.128 4.019 0.068 0.681 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 0.960 0.109 0.350 5.893 0.100 0.823 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.273 0.212 0.012 -0.348 2.998 -0.410 0.830 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.410 SERIES 700122 AND 700131 163 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.830 SERIES 700081 AND 700082 101 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.359 0.480 0.191 0.326 0.393 0.583 0.470 0.347 0.413 0.353 SDEV 0.076 0.264 0.276 0.251 0.221 0.194 0.236 0.239 0.226 0.256 SERR 0.044 0.152 0.087 0.055 0.027 0.018 0.018 0.018 0.017 0.019 EPS 0.653 0.822 0.661 0.853 0.910 0.962 0.944 0.910 0.933 0.920 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.319 0.320 0.278 0.253 SDEV 0.237 0.218 0.241 0.229 SERR 0.016 0.014 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.914 0.922 0.908 0.895 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 0.840 0.050 -0.222 2.910 0.046 0.452 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.090 -0.067 0.155 89 341 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.42 1.00 1.05 1.47 97.90 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 288. 149. 101. 174. 323. 430. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.451 0.445 0.386 0.352 0.371 0.328 0.336 0.327 0.349 0.329 PACF 0.451 0.303 0.152 0.093 0.133 0.058 0.076 0.066 0.099 0.049 95% C.L. 0.096 0.114 0.130 0.140 0.148 0.156 0.163 0.169 0.175 0.181 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.316 0.242 0.216 0.099 0.057 0.132 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 700011 1 0.58275408 0.00066088 0.00000000 0.37903976 2 700012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022883 0.90073091 3 700021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00046919 0.92184585 4 700022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00059685 0.81276268 5 700031 1 0.12031017 0.02678620 0.00000000 0.83203071 6 700032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014352 0.81620669 7 700041 1 0.23552603 0.00652473 0.00000000 0.60619676 8 700042 1 0.16164991 0.01560448 0.00000000 0.69482315 9 700051 1 0.86120200 0.00073405 0.00000000 0.00326874 10 700052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00072697 0.96616143 11 700061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009124 0.91621155 12 700062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00038866 0.92685789 13 700071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006706 0.91481405 14 700072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00068361 0.91977793 15 700081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00093429 0.92635304 16 700082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00125055 0.88447130 17 700091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00013938 0.86622840 18 700092 1 0.16116090 0.00888702 0.00000000 0.76379561 19 700101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00065565 1.02866077 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 700102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00017533 0.98556155 21 700111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00054969 0.93982780 22 700112 1 0.12094455 0.06344105 0.00000000 0.81653094 23 700121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014602 0.93852431 24 700122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035111 0.91834944 25 700131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00138777 0.60387182 26 700132 1 0.07141701 0.01920203 0.00000000 0.90724075 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.094 -1.084 4.883 0.066 0.592 2 700012 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.086 -1.225 5.093 0.050 0.697 3 700021 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.088 -0.837 4.843 0.060 0.616 4 700022 1626 1919 294 1.000 0.131 -0.092 2.657 0.071 0.762 5 700031 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.090 -0.643 3.590 0.073 0.427 6 700032 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.074 -0.714 3.823 0.064 0.359 7 700041 1555 1983 429 1.000 0.094 0.015 2.747 0.073 0.502 8 700042 1554 1983 430 1.000 0.079 -0.238 3.449 0.064 0.460 9 700051 1685 1983 299 1.000 0.101 -0.581 3.816 0.084 0.433 10 700052 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.076 -0.630 5.066 0.062 0.419 11 700061 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.060 0.034 3.505 0.054 0.266 12 700062 1857 1983 127 1.000 0.050 0.063 3.038 0.047 0.192 13 700071 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.050 -0.214 3.048 0.054 0.055 14 700072 1852 1983 132 1.000 0.074 -0.451 3.056 0.063 0.392 15 700081 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.074 -0.835 4.646 0.053 0.597 16 700082 1883 1983 101 1.000 0.083 -0.334 3.830 0.066 0.439 17 700091 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.064 -0.245 3.805 0.053 0.435 18 700092 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.066 -0.309 3.211 0.050 0.512 19 700101 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.085 -0.833 5.357 0.064 0.544 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.062 -0.325 2.966 0.054 0.360 21 700111 1642 1983 342 1.000 0.090 -0.613 3.622 0.068 0.487 22 700112 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.084 -0.783 4.152 0.077 0.288 23 700121 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.077 -0.801 4.712 0.061 0.465 24 700122 1667 1983 317 1.000 0.084 -0.612 3.663 0.061 0.586 25 700131 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.111 0.070 2.727 0.099 0.371 26 700132 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.050 -0.179 2.940 0.047 0.258 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 1.000 0.080 -0.477 3.779 0.063 0.443 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.000 0.019 0.361 0.824 0.012 0.156 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 1.000 0.081 -0.516 3.643 0.063 0.437 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.000 0.024 0.569 1.598 0.014 0.184 MINIMUM VALUE 101 1.000 0.050 -1.225 2.657 0.047 0.055 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.066 -0.783 3.048 0.054 0.360 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 1.000 0.090 -0.214 4.646 0.068 0.544 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 1.000 0.131 0.070 5.357 0.099 0.762 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 700011 -67 192 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 700012 -67 216 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 700021 -67 275 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 700022 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 700031 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 700032 -67 226 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 700041 -67 287 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 700042 -67 288 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 700051 -67 200 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 700052 -67 239 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 700061 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 700062 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 700071 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 700072 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 700081 -67 76 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 700082 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 700091 -67 174 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 700092 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 700101 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 700102 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 700111 -67 229 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 700112 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 700121 -67 215 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 700122 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 700131 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 700132 -67 180 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.091 -1.051 4.899 0.066 0.563 2 700012 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.072 -1.497 6.160 0.050 0.558 3 700021 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.085 -0.875 5.132 0.060 0.584 4 700022 1626 1919 294 0.999 0.102 -0.548 2.976 0.071 0.596 5 700031 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.083 -0.535 3.861 0.073 0.324 6 700032 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.068 -0.691 4.198 0.064 0.251 7 700041 1555 1983 429 1.000 0.088 0.063 2.975 0.073 0.443 8 700042 1554 1983 430 1.000 0.078 -0.264 3.363 0.064 0.437 9 700051 1685 1983 299 1.000 0.095 -0.803 4.165 0.084 0.361 10 700052 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.072 -0.660 5.013 0.062 0.358 11 700061 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.053 0.025 3.590 0.054 0.075 12 700062 1857 1983 127 1.000 0.047 0.097 3.153 0.047 0.072 13 700071 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.046 -0.040 3.337 0.054 -0.105 14 700072 1852 1983 132 1.000 0.063 -0.142 3.546 0.063 0.120 15 700081 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.056 -0.524 3.745 0.052 0.280 16 700082 1883 1983 101 1.000 0.067 -0.634 4.149 0.066 0.146 17 700091 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.059 -0.187 3.910 0.053 0.331 18 700092 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.061 -0.288 3.401 0.050 0.440 19 700101 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.079 -0.731 5.595 0.064 0.477 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.057 -0.227 2.872 0.054 0.246 21 700111 1642 1983 342 1.000 0.086 -0.714 3.724 0.068 0.440 22 700112 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.081 -0.827 4.329 0.077 0.240 23 700121 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.070 -0.961 5.041 0.061 0.342 24 700122 1667 1983 317 1.000 0.070 -0.643 4.051 0.061 0.394 25 700131 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.106 0.101 2.470 0.099 0.309 26 700132 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.046 -0.200 3.177 0.047 0.137 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 1.000 0.072 -0.491 3.955 0.063 0.324 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.000 0.017 0.403 0.904 0.012 0.176 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 1.000 0.071 -0.541 3.803 0.063 0.336 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.000 0.026 0.544 0.992 0.014 0.200 MINIMUM VALUE 101 0.999 0.046 -1.497 2.470 0.047 -0.105 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.059 -0.731 3.337 0.054 0.240 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 1.000 0.085 -0.187 4.329 0.068 0.440 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 1.000 0.106 0.101 6.160 0.099 0.596 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.290 0.145 0.008 0.355 3.120 -0.074 0.732 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.074 SERIES 700082 AND 700111 101 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.732 SERIES 700062 AND 700071 106 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.402 0.345 0.233 0.349 0.404 0.586 0.490 0.371 0.402 0.372 SDEV 0.086 0.319 0.227 0.254 0.229 0.179 0.207 0.222 0.234 0.246 SERR 0.050 0.184 0.072 0.056 0.028 0.016 0.016 0.017 0.018 0.018 EPS 0.693 0.725 0.714 0.865 0.914 0.963 0.948 0.918 0.930 0.926 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.338 0.342 0.288 0.265 SDEV 0.226 0.214 0.215 0.213 SERR 0.016 0.013 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.920 0.928 0.912 0.901 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 1.003 0.045 -0.230 3.733 0.045 0.157 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.127 -0.066 0.119 184 246 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.82 1.00 1.10 1.92 8.86 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.157 0.187 0.083 0.039 0.068 -0.010 0.028 -0.008 0.039 0.033 PACF 0.157 0.167 0.034 -0.007 0.046 -0.034 0.015 -0.012 0.039 0.024 95% C.L. 0.096 0.099 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.054 0.131 0.168 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.150 0.291 0.090 0.079 0.076 -0.014 0.013 -0.036 0.010 0.066 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.150 2 0.109 0.275 3 0.104 0.273 0.019 4 0.104 0.277 0.020 -0.014 5 0.105 0.276 0.008 -0.018 0.043 6 0.107 0.275 0.009 -0.004 0.049 -0.050 7 0.106 0.275 0.009 -0.004 0.053 -0.049 -0.015 8 0.106 0.274 0.010 -0.004 0.053 -0.042 -0.012 -0.025 9 0.106 0.275 0.011 -0.005 0.053 -0.042 -0.017 -0.027 0.019 10 0.105 0.277 0.012 -0.002 0.048 -0.042 -0.018 -0.052 0.010 0.090 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2395.90 2388.07 2356.29 2358.14 2360.06 2361.25 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2362.15 2364.06 2365.79 2367.63 2366.14 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.109 0.275 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 9.64 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 110.67 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.109 0.287 0.061 0.085 0.026 0.026 0.010 0.008 0.004 0.0027 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 700011 2 0.453 0.316 0.440 2 700012 2 0.381 0.404 0.277 3 700021 2 0.376 0.464 0.212 4 700022 2 0.424 0.411 0.315 5 700031 2 0.206 0.219 0.324 6 700032 2 0.146 0.178 0.289 7 700041 2 0.276 0.316 0.287 8 700042 2 0.259 0.324 0.259 9 700051 2 0.327 0.201 0.446 10 700052 2 0.250 0.225 0.373 11 700061 2 0.053 0.059 0.215 12 700062 2 0.010 0.068 0.059 13 700071 2 0.012 -0.107 -0.020 14 700072 2 0.074 0.111 0.100 15 700081 2 0.088 0.256 0.090 16 700082 2 0.038 0.133 0.109 17 700091 2 0.138 0.276 0.167 18 700092 2 0.273 0.334 0.245 19 700101 2 0.270 0.374 0.215 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 700102 2 0.093 0.208 0.160 21 700111 2 0.278 0.313 0.289 22 700112 2 0.113 0.186 0.227 23 700121 2 0.165 0.275 0.197 24 700122 2 0.188 0.326 0.175 25 700131 2 0.105 0.287 0.084 26 700132 2 0.035 0.125 0.094 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.193 0.242 0.216 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.132 0.127 0.115 MEDIAN 2 0.176 0.266 0.215 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.188 0.146 0.180 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.010 -0.107 -0.020 LOWER HINGE 2 0.088 0.178 0.109 UPPER HINGE 2 0.276 0.324 0.289 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.453 0.464 0.446 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 700011 1696 1983 288 1.000 0.067 -0.952 5.238 0.075 -0.028 2 700012 1661 1983 323 1.000 0.057 -1.235 7.355 0.061 -0.044 3 700021 1573 1983 411 1.000 0.067 -0.695 4.496 0.072 0.000 4 700022 1626 1919 294 1.000 0.077 -0.274 3.477 0.084 -0.009 5 700031 1669 1983 315 1.000 0.074 -0.576 4.580 0.081 -0.030 6 700032 1646 1983 338 1.000 0.063 -0.451 3.736 0.070 -0.022 7 700041 1555 1983 429 1.000 0.076 0.220 3.424 0.086 -0.038 8 700042 1554 1983 430 1.000 0.068 -0.146 3.252 0.076 -0.035 9 700051 1685 1983 299 1.000 0.079 -0.463 3.839 0.089 -0.083 10 700052 1626 1983 358 1.000 0.063 -0.636 4.727 0.067 -0.006 11 700061 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.051 0.132 3.393 0.054 0.005 12 700062 1857 1983 127 1.000 0.046 0.089 3.347 0.049 -0.002 13 700071 1878 1983 106 1.000 0.046 0.029 3.341 0.051 0.000 14 700072 1852 1983 132 1.000 0.062 -0.086 3.732 0.065 0.026 15 700081 1870 1983 114 1.000 0.053 -0.277 3.327 0.060 0.003 16 700082 1883 1983 101 1.000 0.066 -0.644 4.255 0.071 -0.004 17 700091 1723 1983 261 1.000 0.055 -0.204 4.209 0.061 -0.007 18 700092 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.053 -0.301 3.711 0.059 -0.046 19 700101 1702 1983 282 1.000 0.068 -0.432 4.396 0.075 -0.021 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 700102 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.055 -0.082 2.942 0.061 -0.013 21 700111 1642 1983 342 1.000 0.074 -0.616 4.529 0.080 -0.044 22 700112 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.077 -0.770 4.406 0.085 -0.017 23 700121 1663 1983 321 1.000 0.065 -1.030 5.732 0.069 -0.024 24 700122 1667 1983 317 1.000 0.064 -0.613 4.304 0.071 -0.012 25 700131 1821 1983 163 1.000 0.100 -0.111 2.338 0.113 -0.003 26 700132 1715 1983 269 1.000 0.046 -0.246 3.377 0.050 -0.008 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 270 1.000 0.064 -0.399 4.056 0.071 -0.018 STANDARD DEVIATION 98 0.000 0.012 0.369 1.000 0.014 0.022 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 288 1.000 0.064 -0.367 3.787 0.070 -0.013 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 149 0.000 0.020 0.526 1.118 0.019 0.027 MINIMUM VALUE 101 1.000 0.046 -1.235 2.338 0.049 -0.083 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.055 -0.636 3.377 0.061 -0.030 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 323 1.000 0.074 -0.111 4.496 0.080 -0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 430 1.000 0.100 0.220 7.355 0.113 0.026 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.336 0.152 0.008 -0.276 3.001 -0.100 0.716 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.100 SERIES 700022 AND 700071 42 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.716 SERIES 700062 AND 700071 106 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 49.06 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. CORR 3. 3. 10. 21. 66. 120. 171. 171. 171. 190. RBAR 0.556 0.328 0.292 0.403 0.409 0.619 0.618 0.470 0.473 0.441 SDEV 0.119 0.230 0.188 0.161 0.191 0.157 0.114 0.158 0.173 0.183 SERR 0.069 0.133 0.059 0.035 0.024 0.014 0.009 0.012 0.013 0.013 EPS 0.808 0.709 0.773 0.890 0.916 0.967 0.969 0.944 0.947 0.943 NSS 3.4 5.0 8.2 12.0 15.7 18.3 19.0 19.0 19.8 21.0 YEAR 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 210. 253. 300. 300. RBAR 0.366 0.352 0.321 0.312 SDEV 0.164 0.169 0.199 0.199 SERR 0.011 0.011 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.929 0.931 0.924 0.919 NSS 22.7 25.0 25.7 25.2 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 1.002 0.045 -0.204 4.143 0.052 -0.142 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.038 -0.017 0.060 179 251 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.82 1.00 1.12 1.94 41.15 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.95 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.141 -0.095 0.009 -0.031 0.055 -0.061 0.000 -0.011 0.034 0.061 PACF -0.141 -0.117 -0.023 -0.046 0.043 -0.056 -0.008 -0.027 0.031 0.063 95% C.L. 0.096 0.098 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.034 -0.158 -0.118 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 -0.009 -0.024 -0.040 0.044 -0.061 -0.002 -0.006 0.036 0.055 PACF -0.003 -0.009 -0.024 -0.040 0.043 -0.062 -0.004 -0.006 0.037 0.048 95% C.L. 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 0.097 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.001 -0.003 -0.009 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1554 1983 430 1.002 0.046 -0.161 3.459 0.046 0.137 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.137 0.265 0.049 0.031 0.053 -0.040 0.013 -0.001 0.021 0.043 PACF 0.137 0.251 -0.014 -0.043 0.049 -0.051 -0.001 0.023 0.019 0.034 95% C.L. 0.096 0.098 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 0.105 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.082 0.102 0.253 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.31 MINUTES