RUN: NORW001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: NM571E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: NM571E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 725 1 Sandia Crest WIDTH_EARLY PSME - 725 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 3000 3515-10730 1735 19 725 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 725211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1844 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 725212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1861 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 725261 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1955 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 725262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1900 1900 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 725272 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1847 1849 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 0.940 0.503 1.426 5.379 0.278 0.705 2 725212 1820 1983 164 1.153 0.588 1.482 5.077 0.303 0.703 3 725221 1836 1983 148 1.388 0.588 0.261 2.772 0.332 0.561 4 725222 1839 1983 145 1.359 0.562 0.424 3.099 0.300 0.608 5 725231 1837 1983 147 0.973 0.357 0.813 5.036 0.316 0.445 6 725232 1840 1983 144 0.997 0.378 0.795 5.117 0.324 0.476 7 725241 1818 1983 166 1.174 0.535 0.561 3.374 0.324 0.656 8 725242 1813 1983 171 1.126 0.553 0.576 2.570 0.305 0.709 9 725251 1846 1983 138 1.486 0.677 0.433 2.527 0.343 0.550 10 725252 1735 1872 138 1.152 0.469 0.484 2.721 0.213 0.756 11 725261 1812 1983 172 1.100 0.850 0.694 2.272 0.303 0.899 12 725262 1833 1983 151 0.957 0.823 1.051 2.838 0.290 0.936 13 725271 1837 1983 147 1.379 0.587 0.277 2.931 0.370 0.493 14 725272 1820 1983 164 1.126 0.578 0.566 3.145 0.366 0.679 15 725281 1807 1983 177 1.136 0.859 0.998 3.200 0.245 0.930 16 725282 1816 1983 168 1.147 0.665 0.757 2.944 0.254 0.890 17 725301 1740 1983 244 1.050 0.673 1.325 4.016 0.260 0.850 18 725302 1800 1983 184 0.730 0.289 0.383 2.788 0.298 0.648 19 725311 1763 1983 221 0.528 0.264 0.527 3.234 0.386 0.646 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 0.567 0.401 2.330 10.759 0.400 0.743 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1735 TO 1983 249 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 168 1.073 0.560 0.808 3.790 0.310 0.694 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.252 0.171 0.510 1.902 0.048 0.150 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 162 1.126 0.570 0.635 3.122 0.304 0.691 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.198 0.234 0.566 1.746 0.053 0.218 MINIMUM VALUE 138 0.528 0.264 0.261 2.272 0.213 0.445 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.965 0.435 0.459 2.780 0.284 0.584 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.163 0.669 1.025 4.526 0.337 0.803 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.486 0.859 2.330 10.759 0.400 0.936 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.648 0.171 0.012 -0.971 4.252 0.073 0.975 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.073 SERIES 725262 AND 725311 151 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.975 SERIES 725261 AND 725262 151 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.711 0.705 0.693 0.623 0.677 0.678 0.652 SDEV 0.099 0.134 0.132 0.186 0.186 0.158 0.165 SERR 0.040 0.055 0.025 0.015 0.014 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.918 0.954 0.973 0.970 0.976 0.976 0.973 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 1.117 0.482 0.644 3.407 0.263 0.723 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.462 0.218 0.224 29 220 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.68 1.01 1.09 1.77 21.28 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 164. 28. 138. 146. 174. 244. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.720 0.648 0.590 0.498 0.478 0.468 0.404 0.422 0.430 0.416 PACF 0.720 0.267 0.123 -0.032 0.091 0.102 -0.046 0.104 0.100 0.041 95% C.L. 0.127 0.181 0.215 0.240 0.256 0.270 0.282 0.292 0.301 0.311 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.578 0.475 0.225 0.133 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 725211 1 1.67768621 0.04206252 0.00000000 0.68400568 2 725212 1 1.54287267 0.02012273 0.00000000 0.70377868 3 725221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00745448 1.94333148 4 725222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00867485 1.99222982 5 725231 1 0.92231029 0.06401543 0.00000000 0.87809503 6 725232 1 0.70056725 0.03388154 0.00000000 0.85719800 7 725241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00401005 1.50917637 8 725242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00621021 1.66033578 9 725251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01065349 2.22672176 10 725252 1 1.60706985 0.01311774 0.00000000 0.41430345 11 725261 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 725262 1 3.01366854 0.02221823 0.00000000 0.09691521 13 725271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00827029 1.99057305 14 725272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00666887 1.69347954 15 725281 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 725282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01165845 2.13228178 17 725301 1 2.35740137 0.01708540 0.00000000 0.49794543 18 725302 1 0.65376765 0.02199257 0.00000000 0.57268536 19 725311 1 0.52523857 0.03098271 0.00000000 0.45256752 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 725312 1 1.71052504 0.04969718 0.00000000 0.42801693 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 1.001 0.366 0.178 2.216 0.273 0.569 2 725212 1820 1983 164 1.001 0.336 0.237 2.799 0.300 0.426 3 725221 1836 1983 148 0.999 0.362 0.026 2.786 0.330 0.416 4 725222 1839 1983 145 1.001 0.319 -0.066 2.755 0.298 0.399 5 725231 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.313 -0.005 3.244 0.312 0.286 6 725232 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.347 0.855 7.078 0.321 0.357 7 725241 1818 1983 166 0.998 0.391 -0.079 2.887 0.321 0.530 8 725242 1813 1983 171 0.995 0.382 0.245 2.542 0.302 0.524 9 725251 1846 1983 138 0.993 0.326 -0.115 2.836 0.340 0.235 10 725252 1735 1872 138 1.000 0.240 -1.035 4.039 0.212 0.467 11 725261 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.411 -0.025 2.953 0.303 0.585 12 725262 1833 1983 151 1.038 0.501 1.226 4.868 0.288 0.689 13 725271 1837 1983 147 0.997 0.336 -0.321 2.671 0.368 0.231 14 725272 1820 1983 164 0.994 0.390 -0.388 2.638 0.358 0.443 15 725281 1807 1983 177 1.006 0.324 0.388 4.481 0.244 0.567 16 725282 1816 1983 168 1.042 0.402 1.426 6.956 0.253 0.603 17 725301 1740 1983 244 1.002 0.289 -0.570 3.429 0.259 0.449 18 725302 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.313 -0.591 2.924 0.296 0.414 19 725311 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.446 0.136 2.883 0.385 0.579 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 0.999 0.436 0.271 3.813 0.399 0.531 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.003 0.361 0.090 3.540 0.308 0.465 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.013 0.060 0.586 1.365 0.048 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.354 0.011 2.905 0.303 0.458 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.002 0.075 0.476 1.156 0.054 0.161 MINIMUM VALUE 138 0.993 0.240 -1.035 2.216 0.212 0.231 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.999 0.321 -0.218 2.770 0.281 0.407 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.001 0.396 0.258 3.926 0.335 0.568 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.042 0.501 1.426 7.078 0.399 0.689 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 725211 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 725212 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 725221 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 725222 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 725231 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 725232 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 725241 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 725242 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 725251 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 725252 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 725261 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 725262 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 725271 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 725272 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 725281 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 725282 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 725301 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 725302 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 725311 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 725312 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 0.998 0.335 -0.107 2.105 0.273 0.517 2 725212 1820 1983 164 0.998 0.323 0.144 2.640 0.300 0.372 3 725221 1836 1983 148 0.997 0.350 -0.020 2.918 0.329 0.376 4 725222 1839 1983 145 0.995 0.298 -0.239 2.862 0.298 0.330 5 725231 1837 1983 147 0.998 0.304 0.184 4.444 0.312 0.242 6 725232 1840 1983 144 0.998 0.330 0.441 4.876 0.321 0.322 7 725241 1818 1983 166 0.990 0.367 -0.184 2.693 0.322 0.483 8 725242 1813 1983 171 0.995 0.360 0.248 2.894 0.302 0.474 9 725251 1846 1983 138 0.999 0.311 -0.223 3.055 0.341 0.189 10 725252 1735 1872 138 0.999 0.237 -1.053 4.079 0.212 0.457 11 725261 1812 1983 172 0.996 0.392 -0.161 3.008 0.303 0.544 12 725262 1833 1983 151 0.992 0.344 -0.018 3.490 0.286 0.510 13 725271 1837 1983 147 0.999 0.326 -0.398 2.882 0.368 0.191 14 725272 1820 1983 164 0.996 0.387 -0.239 2.752 0.358 0.427 15 725281 1807 1983 177 0.999 0.315 0.200 4.024 0.244 0.561 16 725282 1816 1983 168 0.997 0.305 0.003 3.824 0.253 0.468 17 725301 1740 1983 244 0.999 0.276 -0.706 3.474 0.259 0.400 18 725302 1800 1983 184 0.999 0.308 -0.644 2.996 0.296 0.382 19 725311 1763 1983 221 0.997 0.439 0.206 3.358 0.385 0.564 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 0.998 0.414 -0.023 3.310 0.399 0.486 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 0.997 0.336 -0.129 3.284 0.308 0.415 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.002 0.048 0.361 0.677 0.048 0.114 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 0.998 0.328 -0.065 3.031 0.303 0.442 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.003 0.057 0.403 0.785 0.055 0.147 MINIMUM VALUE 138 0.990 0.237 -1.053 2.105 0.212 0.189 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.996 0.306 -0.239 2.872 0.280 0.351 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 0.999 0.364 0.164 3.657 0.335 0.498 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 0.999 0.439 0.441 4.876 0.399 0.564 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.633 0.117 0.008 -0.812 4.582 0.191 0.866 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.191 SERIES 725251 AND 725252 27 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.866 SERIES 725221 AND 725222 145 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.619 0.736 0.687 0.603 0.724 0.701 0.647 SDEV 0.127 0.108 0.139 0.135 0.128 0.137 0.126 SERR 0.052 0.044 0.026 0.011 0.010 0.011 0.010 EPS 0.881 0.960 0.972 0.967 0.980 0.978 0.972 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 0.992 0.268 -0.724 3.520 0.256 0.377 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.100 0.029 0.146 61 188 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.66 1.00 1.07 1.73 4.59 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.376 0.239 0.171 0.079 0.025 -0.042 -0.150 -0.159 -0.082 -0.070 PACF 0.376 0.114 0.057 -0.025 -0.028 -0.066 -0.139 -0.064 0.046 0.007 95% C.L. 0.127 0.144 0.150 0.153 0.154 0.154 0.154 0.156 0.159 0.159 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.155 0.333 0.114 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.378 0.255 0.196 0.115 0.072 -0.009 -0.151 -0.166 -0.080 -0.062 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.378 2 0.329 0.130 3 0.319 0.106 0.074 4 0.320 0.106 0.075 -0.003 5 0.320 0.106 0.076 -0.002 -0.005 6 0.319 0.106 0.081 0.005 0.017 -0.068 7 0.308 0.109 0.082 0.020 0.036 -0.012 -0.173 8 0.294 0.108 0.085 0.021 0.042 -0.004 -0.149 -0.081 9 0.298 0.117 0.085 0.019 0.041 -0.009 -0.155 -0.098 0.060 10 0.297 0.120 0.090 0.019 0.040 -0.009 -0.158 -0.102 0.051 0.031 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2092.71 2056.25 2053.99 2054.61 2056.60 2058.60 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2059.46 2053.86 2054.24 2055.34 2057.09 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.329 0.130 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 15.77 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 118.72 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.329 0.238 0.121 0.071 0.039 0.022 0.012 0.007 0.004 0.0022 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 725211 2 0.269 0.491 0.051 2 725212 2 0.150 0.330 0.113 3 725221 2 0.167 0.332 0.126 4 725222 2 0.142 0.275 0.172 5 725231 2 0.063 0.240 0.009 6 725232 2 0.143 0.284 0.125 7 725241 2 0.299 0.375 0.225 8 725242 2 0.256 0.387 0.185 9 725251 2 0.061 0.174 0.092 10 725252 2 0.225 0.400 0.126 11 725261 2 0.355 0.431 0.209 12 725262 2 0.309 0.396 0.227 13 725271 2 0.049 0.177 0.074 14 725272 2 0.200 0.376 0.123 15 725281 2 0.321 0.583 -0.032 16 725282 2 0.235 0.420 0.111 17 725301 2 0.169 0.362 0.097 18 725302 2 0.190 0.352 0.080 19 725311 2 0.331 0.514 0.098 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 725312 2 0.239 0.460 0.054 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.209 0.368 0.113 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.092 0.105 0.068 MEDIAN 2 0.213 0.375 0.112 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.138 0.119 0.072 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.049 0.174 -0.032 LOWER HINGE 2 0.146 0.307 0.077 UPPER HINGE 2 0.284 0.425 0.149 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.355 0.583 0.227 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.286 -0.125 2.845 0.318 0.000 2 725212 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.298 0.281 2.876 0.330 0.001 3 725221 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.321 -0.072 3.255 0.369 -0.013 4 725222 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.277 -0.325 3.019 0.327 -0.014 5 725231 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.295 0.231 4.717 0.337 0.000 6 725232 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.310 0.432 4.898 0.354 -0.020 7 725241 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.312 -0.042 2.870 0.370 -0.043 8 725242 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.312 0.034 2.957 0.356 -0.013 9 725251 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.304 -0.310 3.330 0.368 -0.013 10 725252 1735 1872 138 1.000 0.209 -0.694 4.002 0.238 0.008 11 725261 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.321 -0.173 3.918 0.360 -0.043 12 725262 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.287 -0.497 4.367 0.327 -0.022 13 725271 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.319 -0.487 2.965 0.390 -0.007 14 725272 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.347 -0.374 3.433 0.409 -0.011 15 725281 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.260 0.153 4.602 0.271 0.005 16 725282 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.267 -0.002 3.679 0.290 -0.001 17 725301 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.252 -0.711 3.975 0.292 0.000 18 725302 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.284 -0.679 3.436 0.326 -0.017 19 725311 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.357 -0.290 3.683 0.439 0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 1.001 0.359 -0.470 3.708 0.443 0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.000 0.299 -0.206 3.627 0.346 -0.010 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.036 0.335 0.648 0.052 0.014 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.301 -0.231 3.558 0.346 -0.009 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.039 0.494 0.997 0.048 0.016 MINIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.209 -0.711 2.845 0.238 -0.043 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.280 -0.478 2.992 0.322 -0.016 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.320 0.016 3.989 0.370 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.001 0.359 0.432 4.898 0.443 0.008 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.662 0.111 0.008 -1.141 5.437 0.230 0.881 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.230 SERIES 725252 AND 725271 36 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.881 SERIES 725231 AND 725232 144 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.590 0.618 0.634 0.648 0.772 0.750 0.641 SDEV 0.182 0.197 0.137 0.102 0.084 0.094 0.102 SERR 0.074 0.080 0.026 0.008 0.006 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.868 0.934 0.965 0.973 0.985 0.983 0.971 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 0.997 0.245 -0.783 4.068 0.289 -0.049 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.065 0.018 0.134 51 198 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.33 1.01 1.06 1.39 3.12 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.049 -0.024 0.053 -0.002 0.018 -0.014 -0.114 -0.113 0.003 0.023 PACF -0.049 -0.026 0.051 0.003 0.020 -0.015 -0.115 -0.130 -0.015 0.030 95% C.L. 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.129 0.131 0.131 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.003 0.051 0.001 0.015 -0.022 -0.121 -0.120 -0.006 0.018 PACF 0.001 0.003 0.051 0.001 0.015 -0.025 -0.122 -0.123 -0.005 0.032 95% C.L. 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.129 0.131 0.131 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.003 0.001 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 0.998 0.268 -0.688 3.472 0.253 0.390 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.388 0.268 0.171 0.071 0.015 -0.064 -0.159 -0.169 -0.095 -0.071 PACF 0.388 0.138 0.033 -0.038 -0.035 -0.080 -0.131 -0.064 0.049 0.017 95% C.L. 0.127 0.145 0.152 0.155 0.156 0.156 0.156 0.159 0.162 0.163 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.168 0.335 0.138 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 1.75 MINUTES