RUN: NORW003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: NM571I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: NM571I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 725 1 Sandia Crest DENSITY_EARLY PSME - 725 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 3000 3515-10730 1735 19 725 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 725211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1844 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 725212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1861 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 725261 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1955 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 725262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1900 1900 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 725272 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1847 1849 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 3.949 0.275 0.888 4.314 0.063 0.219 2 725212 1820 1983 164 3.779 0.223 1.106 5.325 0.056 0.084 3 725221 1836 1983 148 3.791 0.241 0.643 4.286 0.055 0.274 4 725222 1839 1983 145 3.617 0.257 0.287 3.248 0.056 0.314 5 725231 1837 1983 147 4.122 0.313 0.556 3.957 0.059 0.465 6 725232 1840 1983 144 4.259 0.349 2.604 19.459 0.058 0.278 7 725241 1818 1983 166 4.025 0.336 1.132 8.018 0.065 0.289 8 725242 1813 1983 171 4.245 0.369 1.431 5.920 0.064 0.489 9 725251 1846 1983 138 3.428 0.382 1.279 5.975 0.070 0.498 10 725252 1735 1872 138 3.778 0.337 0.640 3.136 0.049 0.708 11 725261 1812 1983 172 4.025 0.349 0.460 9.126 0.070 0.338 12 725262 1833 1983 151 4.283 0.376 0.993 4.491 0.062 0.459 13 725271 1837 1983 147 4.097 0.294 1.919 8.363 0.067 0.058 14 725272 1820 1983 164 3.878 0.290 1.100 6.555 0.067 0.119 15 725281 1807 1983 177 3.982 0.236 0.763 4.625 0.059 0.063 16 725282 1816 1983 168 3.758 0.209 0.107 3.218 0.048 0.394 17 725301 1740 1983 244 3.898 0.318 0.185 3.787 0.051 0.587 18 725302 1800 1983 184 3.902 0.352 -0.064 2.614 0.057 0.596 19 725311 1763 1983 221 4.049 0.371 1.084 5.057 0.075 0.317 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 3.905 0.344 1.167 4.935 0.071 0.321 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1735 TO 1983 249 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 168 3.939 0.311 0.914 5.820 0.061 0.343 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.215 0.055 0.629 3.676 0.008 0.183 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 162 3.927 0.327 0.941 4.780 0.061 0.319 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.288 0.085 0.642 2.394 0.011 0.231 MINIMUM VALUE 138 3.428 0.209 -0.064 2.614 0.048 0.058 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 3.785 0.266 0.508 3.872 0.056 0.246 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 4.073 0.351 1.150 6.265 0.067 0.477 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 4.283 0.382 2.604 19.459 0.075 0.708 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.308 0.235 0.017 -0.524 3.075 -0.395 0.845 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.395 SERIES 725212 AND 725252 53 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.845 SERIES 725301 AND 725302 184 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.381 0.376 0.277 0.357 0.475 0.430 0.337 SDEV 0.243 0.300 0.198 0.186 0.188 0.200 0.238 SERR 0.099 0.122 0.037 0.015 0.014 0.015 0.018 EPS 0.737 0.840 0.860 0.915 0.946 0.935 0.906 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 3.917 0.205 1.055 5.722 0.049 0.088 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.420 0.258 -0.732 60 189 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.46 1.01 1.05 1.51 16.49 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.95 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 164. 28. 138. 146. 174. 244. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.088 0.116 0.184 0.143 0.213 0.059 0.091 0.140 0.152 0.061 PACF 0.088 0.110 0.169 0.112 0.173 -0.009 0.019 0.062 0.096 -0.014 95% C.L. 0.127 0.128 0.129 0.134 0.136 0.141 0.142 0.143 0.145 0.147 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.089 0.021 0.057 0.148 0.106 0.174 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 725211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00162842 3.82997060 2 725212 1 0.47032726 0.11251768 0.00000000 3.75638270 3 725221 1 0.37547547 0.10330404 0.00000000 3.76749921 4 725222 1 0.51918167 0.00641841 0.00000000 3.28001046 5 725231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00334634 4.36973810 6 725232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00368686 4.52583933 7 725241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00292999 4.27001524 8 725242 1 0.44689193 0.02448779 0.00000000 4.14162207 9 725251 1 0.93416339 0.02198099 0.00000000 3.13762474 10 725252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00275208 3.58713627 11 725261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00302309 3.76614618 12 725262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00464534 3.92603731 13 725271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00082845 4.03556538 14 725272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00107204 3.97226620 15 725281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00107553 3.88602924 16 725282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00242072 3.55342531 17 725301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00268361 4.22702074 18 725302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00442820 4.31129360 19 725311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004717 4.05428600 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 725312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00042879 3.85306787 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.067 0.772 3.700 0.063 0.161 2 725212 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.056 1.089 5.191 0.057 0.013 3 725221 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.062 0.814 4.937 0.055 0.227 4 725222 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.067 0.324 3.407 0.056 0.218 5 725231 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.068 0.880 4.994 0.059 0.333 6 725232 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.073 3.619 27.474 0.058 0.111 7 725241 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.076 1.641 10.707 0.064 0.162 8 725242 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.082 1.086 4.874 0.063 0.442 9 725251 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.088 2.266 12.317 0.070 0.233 10 725252 1735 1872 138 1.000 0.084 0.241 3.035 0.048 0.663 11 725261 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.078 0.113 8.767 0.070 0.186 12 725262 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.074 0.944 4.491 0.062 0.250 13 725271 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.071 1.828 8.222 0.067 0.042 14 725272 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.075 1.242 7.051 0.069 0.060 15 725281 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.058 0.806 5.474 0.058 0.002 16 725282 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.046 0.389 3.656 0.048 0.105 17 725301 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.066 1.098 6.059 0.051 0.379 18 725302 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.068 0.629 4.356 0.056 0.258 19 725311 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.092 1.082 5.052 0.074 0.316 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.088 1.143 4.846 0.071 0.313 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.000 0.072 1.100 6.930 0.061 0.224 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.012 0.793 5.417 0.008 0.160 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.072 1.013 5.023 0.061 0.222 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.014 0.492 3.213 0.012 0.206 MINIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.046 0.113 3.035 0.048 0.002 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.066 0.701 4.423 0.056 0.108 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.080 1.193 7.636 0.068 0.314 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.000 0.092 3.619 27.474 0.074 0.663 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 725211 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 725212 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 725221 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 725222 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 725231 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 725232 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 725241 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 725242 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 725251 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 725252 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 725261 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 725262 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 725271 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 725272 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 725281 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 725282 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 725301 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 725302 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 725311 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 725312 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.066 0.737 3.535 0.063 0.135 2 725212 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.055 1.095 5.300 0.057 -0.034 3 725221 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.058 0.670 4.487 0.055 0.163 4 725222 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.064 0.422 3.689 0.056 0.163 5 725231 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.065 0.838 4.813 0.059 0.279 6 725232 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.066 3.570 27.303 0.058 -0.042 7 725241 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.071 1.677 11.182 0.064 0.072 8 725242 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.080 1.092 4.942 0.063 0.410 9 725251 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.085 2.292 12.554 0.070 0.180 10 725252 1735 1872 138 1.000 0.067 0.443 3.113 0.048 0.502 11 725261 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.077 0.096 8.904 0.070 0.165 12 725262 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.068 1.130 5.390 0.062 0.111 13 725271 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.070 1.833 8.142 0.067 0.016 14 725272 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.074 1.381 7.328 0.069 0.034 15 725281 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.056 0.745 5.280 0.059 -0.058 16 725282 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.044 0.426 3.752 0.048 0.025 17 725301 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.059 1.368 6.735 0.051 0.213 18 725302 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.059 1.039 5.519 0.056 0.041 19 725311 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.082 1.260 5.764 0.074 0.139 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.081 1.425 6.541 0.071 0.196 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.000 0.067 1.177 7.214 0.061 0.136 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.010 0.776 5.336 0.008 0.144 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.067 1.093 5.455 0.061 0.137 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.016 0.700 3.085 0.012 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.044 0.096 3.113 0.048 -0.058 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.059 0.703 4.650 0.056 0.029 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.075 1.403 7.735 0.068 0.188 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.000 0.085 3.570 27.303 0.074 0.502 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.397 0.145 0.011 -0.718 4.384 -0.150 0.725 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.150 SERIES 725241 AND 725252 55 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.725 SERIES 725231 AND 725232 144 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.431 0.380 0.291 0.359 0.494 0.472 0.349 SDEV 0.188 0.277 0.190 0.172 0.188 0.166 0.221 SERR 0.077 0.113 0.036 0.014 0.014 0.013 0.017 EPS 0.775 0.842 0.868 0.916 0.949 0.944 0.911 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 0.998 0.045 1.616 8.050 0.046 -0.143 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.427 0.225 -0.181 63 186 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.57 1.00 1.10 1.68 5.12 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.142 -0.023 0.007 0.013 0.132 -0.115 -0.060 -0.012 0.009 -0.048 PACF -0.142 -0.044 -0.002 0.013 0.139 -0.077 -0.082 -0.043 -0.007 -0.063 95% C.L. 0.127 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.132 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.134 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.022 -0.142 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.124 -0.031 -0.005 0.006 0.184 -0.158 -0.091 -0.047 -0.022 -0.063 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.124 2 -0.130 -0.047 3 -0.131 -0.049 -0.015 4 -0.131 -0.049 -0.015 0.001 5 -0.131 -0.046 -0.006 0.026 0.188 6 -0.109 -0.043 -0.007 0.021 0.172 -0.115 7 -0.123 -0.023 -0.004 0.020 0.167 -0.128 -0.117 8 -0.133 -0.034 0.010 0.022 0.167 -0.130 -0.127 -0.086 9 -0.138 -0.041 0.003 0.031 0.168 -0.129 -0.129 -0.093 -0.055 10 -0.144 -0.052 -0.012 0.016 0.187 -0.126 -0.129 -0.098 -0.071 -0.113 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1191.29 1189.43 1190.87 1192.81 1194.81 1187.89 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1186.56 1185.15 1185.31 1186.55 1185.34 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.124 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.54 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.56 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.124 0.015 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 725211 1 0.021 0.137 2 725212 1 0.001 -0.035 3 725221 1 0.028 0.168 4 725222 1 0.071 0.165 5 725231 1 0.097 0.280 6 725232 1 0.002 -0.042 7 725241 1 0.007 0.073 8 725242 1 0.215 0.413 9 725251 1 0.058 0.181 10 725252 1 0.339 0.503 11 725261 1 0.033 0.166 12 725262 1 0.013 0.111 13 725271 1 0.005 0.016 14 725272 1 0.005 0.035 15 725281 1 0.012 -0.059 16 725282 1 0.035 0.025 17 725301 1 0.097 0.218 18 725302 1 0.010 0.042 19 725311 1 0.020 0.139 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 725312 1 0.040 0.197 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.055 0.137 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.084 0.145 MEDIAN 1 0.025 0.138 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.056 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.001 -0.059 LOWER HINGE 1 0.008 0.030 UPPER HINGE 1 0.065 0.189 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.339 0.503 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.065 0.696 3.706 0.067 -0.007 2 725212 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.055 1.087 5.232 0.056 0.001 3 725221 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.058 0.680 5.066 0.059 0.003 4 725222 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.063 0.449 4.304 0.062 -0.036 5 725231 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.062 0.859 5.153 0.068 -0.039 6 725232 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.066 3.595 27.472 0.057 0.001 7 725241 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.071 1.699 11.595 0.067 -0.004 8 725242 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.072 0.506 4.905 0.078 -0.097 9 725251 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.083 2.203 13.128 0.077 -0.030 10 725252 1735 1872 138 1.000 0.058 0.796 4.480 0.064 -0.167 11 725261 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.076 0.125 8.641 0.077 -0.012 12 725262 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.067 1.180 5.750 0.066 -0.003 13 725271 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.070 1.836 8.191 0.067 0.001 14 725272 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.074 1.401 7.454 0.070 0.002 15 725281 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.056 0.771 5.155 0.057 0.005 16 725282 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.044 0.412 3.798 0.048 -0.005 17 725301 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.057 1.318 6.570 0.058 -0.053 18 725302 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.059 1.048 5.543 0.058 -0.004 19 725311 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.081 1.232 5.731 0.080 -0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.079 1.416 6.707 0.078 -0.007 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.000 0.066 1.165 7.429 0.066 -0.023 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.010 0.772 5.315 0.009 0.042 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.066 1.068 5.637 0.067 -0.004 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.015 0.721 2.836 0.015 0.033 MINIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.044 0.125 3.706 0.048 -0.167 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.058 0.688 4.986 0.058 -0.033 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.073 1.409 7.822 0.073 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.000 0.083 3.595 27.472 0.080 0.005 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.430 0.139 0.010 -0.620 3.869 -0.067 0.743 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.067 SERIES 725211 AND 725252 35 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.743 SERIES 725231 AND 725232 144 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.425 0.471 0.364 0.382 0.528 0.510 0.357 SDEV 0.230 0.230 0.167 0.161 0.179 0.162 0.217 SERR 0.094 0.094 0.032 0.013 0.014 0.012 0.017 EPS 0.771 0.886 0.901 0.923 0.955 0.952 0.914 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 0.998 0.046 1.489 8.084 0.050 -0.279 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.451 0.224 -0.182 62 187 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.60 1.02 1.12 1.72 8.33 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.278 -0.011 0.001 -0.028 0.137 -0.111 -0.026 -0.013 0.006 -0.017 PACF -0.278 -0.096 -0.032 -0.041 0.128 -0.041 -0.062 -0.051 -0.016 -0.044 95% C.L. 0.127 0.136 0.136 0.136 0.136 0.138 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.140 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.087 -0.305 -0.096 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.027 -0.097 -0.011 0.008 0.118 -0.096 -0.066 -0.020 -0.002 -0.054 PACF -0.027 -0.098 -0.017 -0.002 0.117 -0.091 -0.050 -0.040 -0.017 -0.077 95% C.L. 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.130 0.131 0.131 0.132 0.132 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.010 -0.027 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 0.998 0.045 1.693 8.219 0.045 -0.139 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.139 -0.077 0.000 -0.007 0.128 -0.102 -0.050 -0.014 0.005 -0.040 PACF -0.139 -0.098 -0.026 -0.019 0.125 -0.069 -0.056 -0.045 -0.014 -0.065 95% C.L. 0.127 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.029 -0.153 -0.098 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.33 MINUTES