RUN: NORW001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: NM571L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: NM571L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 725 1 Sandia Crest WIDTH_LATE PSME - 725 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 3000 3515-10730 1735 19 725 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 725211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1844 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 725212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1861 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 725261 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1955 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 725262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1900 1900 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 725272 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1847 1849 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 0.273 0.141 1.082 3.682 0.388 0.434 2 725212 1820 1983 164 0.351 0.211 1.454 5.786 0.509 0.435 3 725221 1836 1983 148 0.332 0.151 0.641 3.200 0.390 0.429 4 725222 1839 1983 145 0.297 0.172 2.028 10.070 0.424 0.428 5 725231 1837 1983 147 0.219 0.105 1.850 7.979 0.395 0.274 6 725232 1840 1983 144 0.223 0.099 1.135 5.385 0.387 0.310 7 725241 1818 1983 166 0.296 0.131 0.582 3.245 0.366 0.437 8 725242 1813 1983 171 0.259 0.132 1.306 6.613 0.406 0.443 9 725251 1846 1983 138 0.293 0.172 0.971 3.709 0.560 0.313 10 725252 1735 1872 138 0.302 0.145 1.360 5.508 0.330 0.576 11 725261 1812 1983 172 0.291 0.189 1.130 3.812 0.328 0.661 12 725262 1833 1983 151 0.231 0.128 1.222 3.816 0.263 0.742 13 725271 1837 1983 147 0.438 0.244 0.830 3.268 0.547 0.254 14 725272 1820 1983 164 0.280 0.169 1.674 7.495 0.431 0.444 15 725281 1807 1983 177 0.286 0.231 1.949 6.423 0.285 0.807 16 725282 1816 1983 168 0.232 0.105 1.373 5.295 0.289 0.628 17 725301 1740 1983 244 0.213 0.148 1.720 5.535 0.330 0.761 18 725302 1800 1983 184 0.141 0.041 0.014 2.582 0.243 0.456 19 725311 1763 1983 221 0.202 0.093 0.569 3.323 0.370 0.530 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 0.176 0.067 1.237 7.524 0.245 0.561 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1735 TO 1983 249 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 168 0.267 0.144 1.206 5.212 0.374 0.496 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.066 0.052 0.513 2.006 0.091 0.160 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 162 0.276 0.143 1.230 5.340 0.378 0.444 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.076 0.067 0.663 3.016 0.106 0.173 MINIMUM VALUE 138 0.141 0.041 0.014 2.582 0.243 0.254 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.221 0.105 0.901 3.502 0.309 0.428 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 0.297 0.172 1.564 6.518 0.415 0.602 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 0.438 0.244 2.028 10.070 0.560 0.807 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.465 0.174 0.013 -0.320 2.964 -0.020 0.872 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.020 SERIES 725251 AND 725312 138 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.872 SERIES 725261 AND 725262 151 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.379 0.564 0.508 0.410 0.453 0.524 0.473 SDEV 0.276 0.116 0.160 0.222 0.195 0.158 0.196 SERR 0.113 0.047 0.030 0.018 0.015 0.012 0.015 EPS 0.735 0.918 0.943 0.931 0.941 0.954 0.945 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 0.266 0.110 0.979 4.305 0.305 0.556 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.598 0.391 0.003 87 162 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.53 1.33 1.00 1.20 2.53 102.00 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.96 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 164. 28. 138. 146. 174. 244. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.554 0.445 0.454 0.414 0.404 0.364 0.291 0.303 0.394 0.364 PACF 0.554 0.199 0.221 0.102 0.112 0.033 -0.041 0.051 0.192 0.059 95% C.L. 0.127 0.161 0.180 0.197 0.211 0.223 0.232 0.238 0.244 0.254 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.390 0.362 0.071 0.171 0.068 0.113 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 725211 1 0.33788848 0.05651535 0.00000000 0.23598640 2 725212 1 0.31610051 0.02672847 0.00000000 0.28031647 3 725221 1 0.34045377 0.00983245 0.00000000 0.15328515 4 725222 1 0.89311552 0.20958719 0.00000000 0.27075642 5 725231 1 0.27219382 0.08322034 0.00000000 0.19757484 6 725232 1 0.10224685 0.02645787 0.00000000 0.19709013 7 725241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00063873 0.34947863 8 725242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00079595 0.32716545 9 725251 1 0.46559042 0.00895284 0.00000000 0.02679324 10 725252 1 0.44983050 0.00864224 0.00000000 0.03993772 11 725261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00289049 0.53868675 12 725262 1 0.38400832 0.02246059 0.00000000 0.12142916 13 725271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00259666 0.63045198 14 725272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00171263 0.42423984 15 725281 1 0.75068426 0.02533778 0.00000000 0.12286845 16 725282 1 0.27529892 0.01758701 0.00000000 0.14400463 17 725301 1 0.51543224 0.02145629 0.00000000 0.11579113 18 725302 1 0.04334227 0.02334798 0.00000000 0.13157767 19 725311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009070 0.19242123 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 725312 1 0.15911470 0.03151812 0.00000000 0.15596430 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.477 1.321 5.456 0.384 0.331 2 725212 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.532 0.835 3.186 0.506 0.284 3 725221 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.408 0.591 3.129 0.387 0.281 4 725222 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.476 0.869 3.948 0.419 0.329 5 725231 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.426 1.806 9.380 0.391 0.085 6 725232 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.446 1.685 8.760 0.384 0.257 7 725241 1818 1983 166 0.999 0.421 0.474 3.154 0.364 0.382 8 725242 1813 1983 171 0.999 0.482 1.225 5.816 0.403 0.383 9 725251 1846 1983 138 0.999 0.492 0.702 3.087 0.556 0.089 10 725252 1735 1872 138 1.001 0.351 0.473 3.264 0.328 0.329 11 725261 1812 1983 172 1.058 0.491 1.348 5.283 0.329 0.558 12 725262 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.346 0.560 3.955 0.262 0.524 13 725271 1837 1983 147 0.997 0.484 0.643 3.344 0.544 0.074 14 725272 1820 1983 164 0.994 0.460 0.858 4.222 0.429 0.226 15 725281 1807 1983 177 0.998 0.420 2.721 18.631 0.284 0.400 16 725282 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.327 0.854 4.031 0.288 0.374 17 725301 1740 1983 244 1.001 0.343 0.143 2.877 0.329 0.342 18 725302 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.280 -0.053 2.886 0.241 0.424 19 725311 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.458 0.547 3.286 0.368 0.527 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.320 0.470 5.047 0.244 0.501 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.002 0.422 0.904 5.137 0.372 0.335 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.013 0.071 0.637 3.663 0.090 0.142 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.436 0.769 3.951 0.376 0.336 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.001 0.131 0.762 2.200 0.104 0.143 MINIMUM VALUE 138 0.994 0.280 -0.053 2.877 0.241 0.074 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.999 0.349 0.511 3.170 0.308 0.269 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.480 1.273 5.370 0.411 0.412 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.058 0.532 2.721 18.631 0.556 0.558 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 725211 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 725212 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 725221 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 725222 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 725231 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 725232 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 725241 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 725242 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 725251 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 725252 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 725261 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 725262 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 725271 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 725272 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 725281 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 725282 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 725301 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 725302 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 725311 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 725312 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 0.999 0.467 1.351 5.845 0.384 0.299 2 725212 1820 1983 164 0.993 0.502 0.703 2.804 0.506 0.220 3 725221 1836 1983 148 0.995 0.384 0.527 3.246 0.387 0.215 4 725222 1839 1983 145 0.997 0.386 0.365 3.254 0.421 0.123 5 725231 1837 1983 147 0.999 0.428 2.085 11.654 0.390 0.082 6 725232 1840 1983 144 0.998 0.436 1.602 8.220 0.384 0.238 7 725241 1818 1983 166 0.994 0.415 0.876 4.533 0.364 0.349 8 725242 1813 1983 171 0.997 0.477 1.331 6.410 0.403 0.371 9 725251 1846 1983 138 0.996 0.477 0.674 3.063 0.556 0.039 10 725252 1735 1872 138 0.996 0.329 0.345 3.183 0.328 0.277 11 725261 1812 1983 172 0.993 0.356 0.610 3.352 0.329 0.252 12 725262 1833 1983 151 0.996 0.316 0.415 4.022 0.262 0.460 13 725271 1837 1983 147 0.999 0.481 0.693 3.779 0.544 0.070 14 725272 1820 1983 164 0.997 0.461 1.120 5.608 0.429 0.204 15 725281 1807 1983 177 0.998 0.402 2.455 16.601 0.284 0.383 16 725282 1816 1983 168 0.999 0.317 0.809 4.049 0.288 0.341 17 725301 1740 1983 244 0.999 0.330 0.146 2.922 0.329 0.277 18 725302 1800 1983 184 0.997 0.269 -0.052 2.921 0.241 0.370 19 725311 1763 1983 221 0.998 0.453 0.553 3.330 0.368 0.522 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 0.997 0.300 0.317 4.318 0.244 0.445 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 0.997 0.399 0.846 5.156 0.372 0.277 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.002 0.071 0.642 3.464 0.090 0.133 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 0.997 0.409 0.683 3.901 0.376 0.277 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.002 0.135 0.835 2.511 0.104 0.161 MINIMUM VALUE 138 0.993 0.269 -0.052 2.804 0.241 0.039 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.996 0.330 0.390 3.215 0.308 0.210 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 0.999 0.464 1.225 5.726 0.412 0.371 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 0.999 0.502 2.455 16.601 0.556 0.522 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.454 0.129 0.009 0.153 2.763 0.142 0.834 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.142 SERIES 725251 AND 725252 27 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.834 SERIES 725241 AND 725242 166 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.365 0.570 0.533 0.384 0.471 0.548 0.492 SDEV 0.208 0.123 0.160 0.223 0.174 0.149 0.156 SERR 0.085 0.050 0.030 0.018 0.013 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.724 0.920 0.948 0.924 0.945 0.958 0.948 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 0.977 0.269 -0.049 3.274 0.283 0.265 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.408 0.175 0.068 63 186 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.68 1.01 1.10 1.78 9.34 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.264 0.156 0.153 0.062 0.021 -0.051 -0.230 -0.086 0.010 -0.086 PACF 0.264 0.093 0.099 -0.011 -0.019 -0.077 -0.227 0.028 0.096 -0.048 95% C.L. 0.127 0.135 0.138 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.142 0.148 0.148 0.148 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.087 0.230 0.070 0.099 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.193 0.143 0.159 0.049 0.013 -0.046 -0.279 -0.084 0.031 -0.119 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.193 2 0.172 0.110 3 0.158 0.090 0.119 4 0.160 0.091 0.121 -0.013 5 0.160 0.094 0.124 -0.009 -0.026 6 0.158 0.094 0.133 -0.002 -0.014 -0.071 7 0.138 0.089 0.132 0.035 0.012 -0.026 -0.282 8 0.141 0.090 0.132 0.035 0.010 -0.028 -0.284 0.013 9 0.140 0.128 0.135 0.033 0.006 -0.045 -0.296 -0.006 0.135 10 0.148 0.128 0.118 0.031 0.006 -0.043 -0.288 0.001 0.143 -0.058 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2099.06 2091.62 2090.57 2089.00 2090.96 2092.80 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2093.54 2074.86 2076.82 2074.23 2075.39 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.158 0.090 0.119 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.25 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.66 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.158 0.115 0.152 0.053 0.036 0.029 0.014 0.009 0.006 0.0035 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 725211 3 0.117 0.252 0.179 -0.028 2 725212 3 0.058 0.200 0.077 0.036 3 725221 3 0.070 0.187 0.062 0.128 4 725222 3 0.060 0.091 0.081 0.189 5 725231 3 0.028 0.081 0.004 0.071 6 725232 3 0.081 0.228 -0.004 0.137 7 725241 3 0.183 0.249 0.157 0.153 8 725242 3 0.197 0.265 0.153 0.160 9 725251 3 0.032 0.026 0.070 0.140 10 725252 3 0.079 0.283 -0.026 0.017 11 725261 3 0.166 0.159 0.287 0.064 12 725262 3 0.257 0.341 0.190 0.084 13 725271 3 0.023 0.069 0.124 -0.055 14 725272 3 0.081 0.150 0.149 0.115 15 725281 3 0.238 0.256 0.158 0.200 16 725282 3 0.133 0.301 0.086 0.059 17 725301 3 0.099 0.243 0.053 0.127 18 725302 3 0.196 0.270 0.195 0.089 19 725311 3 0.286 0.513 -0.033 0.099 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 725312 3 0.235 0.371 0.086 0.122 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.131 0.227 0.102 0.095 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.083 0.114 0.083 0.067 MEDIAN 3 0.108 0.246 0.086 0.107 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.131 0.122 0.100 0.076 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.023 0.026 -0.033 -0.055 LOWER HINGE 3 0.065 0.155 0.058 0.062 UPPER HINGE 3 0.196 0.276 0.158 0.138 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.286 0.513 0.287 0.200 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.439 1.545 7.786 0.438 0.001 2 725212 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.487 0.680 2.810 0.560 0.000 3 725221 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.370 0.436 3.411 0.420 -0.001 4 725222 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.374 0.214 3.162 0.437 0.001 5 725231 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.425 2.114 12.011 0.406 0.009 6 725232 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.420 1.534 7.995 0.412 0.012 7 725241 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.376 0.659 3.999 0.418 -0.013 8 725242 1813 1983 171 1.001 0.427 0.972 5.366 0.469 -0.008 9 725251 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.470 0.669 3.112 0.551 0.011 10 725252 1735 1872 138 1.000 0.316 0.282 3.017 0.366 0.001 11 725261 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.327 0.678 4.002 0.355 -0.010 12 725262 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.273 0.559 3.975 0.290 -0.002 13 725271 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.476 0.658 3.681 0.554 0.001 14 725272 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.442 1.329 7.219 0.467 0.001 15 725281 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.355 2.738 19.630 0.314 0.028 16 725282 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.295 0.681 3.829 0.330 -0.002 17 725301 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.313 0.242 3.104 0.360 0.003 18 725302 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.242 0.087 3.112 0.272 -0.010 19 725311 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.384 0.671 4.756 0.420 0.007 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.264 0.250 5.502 0.279 0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.000 0.374 0.850 5.574 0.406 0.002 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.074 0.684 4.041 0.087 0.009 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.375 0.670 3.987 0.415 0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.118 0.792 3.223 0.110 0.010 MINIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.242 0.087 2.810 0.272 -0.013 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.315 0.359 3.137 0.342 -0.002 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.433 1.151 6.361 0.452 0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.001 0.487 2.738 19.630 0.560 0.028 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.478 0.123 0.009 0.058 2.583 0.228 0.826 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.228 SERIES 725251 AND 725252 27 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.826 SERIES 725241 AND 725242 166 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.397 0.444 0.470 0.433 0.514 0.576 0.524 SDEV 0.171 0.154 0.173 0.214 0.152 0.129 0.121 SERR 0.070 0.063 0.033 0.017 0.012 0.010 0.009 EPS 0.750 0.874 0.934 0.937 0.953 0.963 0.954 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 0.981 0.253 -0.031 3.159 0.305 0.004 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.352 0.149 0.068 68 181 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.33 0.64 1.01 1.08 1.72 11.59 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.004 -0.032 -0.003 0.001 0.027 -0.039 -0.225 -0.042 0.104 -0.029 PACF 0.004 -0.032 -0.003 0.000 0.027 -0.039 -0.224 -0.047 0.095 -0.033 95% C.L. 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.133 0.134 0.135 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.000 0.001 -0.002 0.019 -0.039 -0.221 -0.044 0.096 -0.031 PACF 0.000 0.000 0.001 -0.002 0.019 -0.039 -0.221 -0.048 0.101 -0.030 95% C.L. 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.133 0.133 0.134 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 0.981 0.260 -0.021 3.167 0.287 0.185 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.184 0.134 0.143 0.020 0.016 -0.045 -0.218 -0.077 0.038 -0.073 PACF 0.184 0.103 0.106 -0.035 -0.009 -0.062 -0.212 -0.004 0.118 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.127 0.131 0.133 0.136 0.136 0.136 0.136 0.141 0.142 0.142 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.056 0.154 0.086 0.107 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES