RUN: NORW001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: NM571N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: NM571N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 725 1 Sandia Crest DENSITY_MINIMUM PSME - 725 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 3000 3515-10730 1735 19 725 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 725211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1844 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 725212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1861 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 725231 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1913 1917 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 725251 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1941 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 725261 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1955 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 725262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1900 1900 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 725272 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 2 GAPS / 1847 1849 / 1870 1874 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 0.338 0.027 1.196 5.186 0.078 0.076 2 725212 1820 1983 164 0.324 0.023 0.951 5.230 0.067 0.090 3 725221 1836 1983 148 0.327 0.025 0.817 4.820 0.068 0.225 4 725222 1839 1983 145 0.309 0.025 0.406 3.192 0.077 0.126 5 725231 1837 1983 147 0.354 0.032 0.815 5.470 0.072 0.397 6 725232 1840 1983 144 0.364 0.037 3.853 29.091 0.072 0.108 7 725241 1818 1983 166 0.347 0.034 2.224 14.714 0.074 0.193 8 725242 1813 1983 171 0.371 0.036 1.607 6.660 0.073 0.428 9 725251 1846 1983 138 0.294 0.036 1.745 7.359 0.074 0.441 10 725252 1735 1872 138 0.320 0.036 0.675 2.749 0.064 0.711 11 725261 1812 1983 172 0.344 0.041 0.423 10.346 0.090 0.382 12 725262 1833 1983 151 0.363 0.038 1.069 5.350 0.081 0.445 13 725271 1837 1983 147 0.349 0.030 2.109 9.214 0.074 0.095 14 725272 1820 1983 164 0.333 0.032 1.002 5.806 0.093 0.014 15 725281 1807 1983 177 0.348 0.027 0.871 4.738 0.066 0.341 16 725282 1816 1983 168 0.324 0.026 0.135 3.260 0.056 0.543 17 725301 1740 1983 244 0.334 0.034 0.094 3.661 0.067 0.553 18 725302 1800 1983 184 0.338 0.040 -0.125 2.655 0.074 0.627 19 725311 1763 1983 221 0.353 0.039 1.566 7.126 0.087 0.284 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 0.341 0.036 1.443 5.804 0.083 0.281 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1735 TO 1983 249 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 168 0.339 0.033 1.144 7.122 0.074 0.318 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.019 0.005 0.908 5.913 0.009 0.201 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 159 0.340 0.034 0.976 5.410 0.074 0.312 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 29 0.025 0.009 1.037 3.043 0.011 0.326 MINIMUM VALUE 133 0.294 0.023 -0.125 2.655 0.056 0.014 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 145 0.325 0.027 0.549 4.199 0.068 0.117 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 0.351 0.036 1.586 7.242 0.079 0.443 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 0.371 0.041 3.853 29.091 0.093 0.711 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.336 0.256 0.019 -0.718 3.129 -0.447 0.881 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.447 SERIES 725241 AND 725252 55 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.881 SERIES 725301 AND 725302 184 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.468 0.380 0.277 0.399 0.511 0.488 0.393 SDEV 0.169 0.326 0.195 0.173 0.184 0.194 0.240 SERR 0.069 0.133 0.037 0.014 0.014 0.015 0.018 EPS 0.801 0.842 0.860 0.928 0.952 0.948 0.925 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 0.337 0.021 1.447 6.894 0.060 -0.010 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.346 0.210 -0.043 52 197 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.29 1.00 1.07 1.36 21.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 164. 28. 138. 146. 174. 244. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.010 0.004 0.115 0.101 0.126 0.001 -0.005 0.026 0.110 0.045 PACF -0.010 0.003 0.115 0.104 0.132 -0.006 -0.029 -0.016 0.088 0.041 95% C.L. 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.130 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.133 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 725211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013263 0.32792535 2 725212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005287 0.32857347 3 725221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003171 0.32419196 4 725222 1 0.03718389 0.00705941 0.00000000 0.28611946 5 725231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00029681 0.37682018 6 725232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00034286 0.38860723 7 725241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00029355 0.37131873 8 725242 1 0.05089947 0.03712365 0.00000000 0.36267018 9 725251 1 0.08835088 0.02953361 0.00000000 0.27301744 10 725252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00043992 0.28899080 11 725261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00045335 0.30507728 12 725262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040990 0.33164436 13 725271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011303 0.34068307 14 725272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004870 0.33721998 15 725281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030243 0.32065421 16 725282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037219 0.29283577 17 725301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00026550 0.36625379 18 725302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00050755 0.38504633 19 725311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005642 0.35897779 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 725312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000740 0.34005177 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.078 1.070 4.496 0.077 0.039 2 725212 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.070 0.971 5.176 0.067 0.076 3 725221 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.076 0.776 4.756 0.068 0.221 4 725222 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.079 0.574 3.538 0.077 0.056 5 725231 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.081 1.123 6.480 0.069 0.289 6 725232 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.092 4.814 38.289 0.071 -0.050 7 725241 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.088 2.813 20.589 0.074 0.038 8 725242 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.091 1.300 5.933 0.073 0.374 9 725251 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.094 2.850 16.613 0.072 0.129 10 725252 1735 1872 138 1.000 0.096 0.283 3.513 0.064 0.601 11 725261 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.099 -0.327 12.153 0.090 0.142 12 725262 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.090 0.846 4.827 0.080 0.275 13 725271 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.083 2.011 9.341 0.073 0.067 14 725272 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.094 1.015 5.996 0.094 -0.012 15 725281 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.064 0.631 4.387 0.065 0.028 16 725282 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.057 0.649 4.928 0.055 0.104 17 725301 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.087 0.999 5.654 0.067 0.370 18 725302 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.086 0.424 4.350 0.074 0.293 19 725311 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.111 1.568 7.113 0.087 0.278 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.106 1.441 5.810 0.083 0.280 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.000 0.086 1.292 8.697 0.074 0.180 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.013 1.131 8.265 0.009 0.163 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.087 1.007 5.732 0.073 0.135 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.015 0.864 3.601 0.011 0.237 MINIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.057 -0.327 3.513 0.055 -0.050 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.079 0.640 4.626 0.068 0.047 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.094 1.504 8.227 0.079 0.284 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.000 0.111 4.814 38.289 0.094 0.601 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 725211 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 725212 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 725221 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 725222 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 725231 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 725232 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 725241 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 725242 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 725251 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 725252 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 725261 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 725262 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 725271 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 725272 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 725281 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 725282 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 725301 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 725302 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 725311 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 725312 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.077 1.056 4.488 0.077 0.025 2 725212 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.066 0.942 5.297 0.068 -0.006 3 725221 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.071 1.051 6.582 0.068 0.114 4 725222 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.078 0.656 3.718 0.077 0.014 5 725231 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.077 1.152 6.358 0.069 0.209 6 725232 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.086 4.672 36.280 0.071 -0.149 7 725241 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.083 2.898 22.108 0.074 -0.056 8 725242 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.089 1.326 6.205 0.073 0.335 9 725251 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.091 2.700 15.568 0.072 0.091 10 725252 1735 1872 138 1.000 0.080 0.392 3.682 0.063 0.432 11 725261 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.097 -0.375 12.588 0.090 0.113 12 725262 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.082 0.886 5.024 0.080 0.135 13 725271 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.081 1.977 8.917 0.073 0.018 14 725272 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.093 1.125 6.113 0.094 -0.041 15 725281 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.063 0.660 4.462 0.065 0.000 16 725282 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.056 0.640 4.778 0.055 0.075 17 725301 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.075 1.362 7.041 0.066 0.156 18 725302 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.074 0.638 5.040 0.074 0.052 19 725311 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.100 1.763 7.487 0.087 0.122 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.098 1.846 7.986 0.083 0.156 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.000 0.081 1.368 8.986 0.074 0.090 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.012 1.090 7.841 0.009 0.132 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.081 1.090 6.281 0.073 0.083 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.015 1.146 3.551 0.011 0.139 MINIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.056 -0.375 3.682 0.055 -0.149 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.074 0.658 4.901 0.068 0.007 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.090 1.804 8.452 0.079 0.146 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.000 0.100 4.672 36.280 0.094 0.432 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.444 0.158 0.011 -1.029 4.997 -0.154 0.765 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.154 SERIES 725241 AND 725252 55 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.765 SERIES 725311 AND 725312 221 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.473 0.344 0.284 0.404 0.535 0.531 0.419 SDEV 0.164 0.316 0.184 0.157 0.184 0.167 0.203 SERR 0.067 0.129 0.035 0.013 0.014 0.013 0.016 EPS 0.804 0.820 0.864 0.930 0.957 0.956 0.932 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 0.998 0.056 1.796 8.853 0.056 -0.146 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.487 0.231 -0.182 75 174 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.35 0.76 1.01 1.09 1.85 6.90 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.95 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.145 -0.083 0.017 0.037 0.111 -0.062 -0.112 -0.045 0.004 -0.031 PACF -0.145 -0.106 -0.012 0.030 0.127 -0.018 -0.110 -0.099 -0.051 -0.058 95% C.L. 0.127 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.132 0.132 0.134 0.134 0.134 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.032 -0.161 -0.106 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.125 -0.088 -0.041 0.037 0.162 -0.121 -0.119 -0.071 -0.024 -0.042 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.125 2 -0.139 -0.106 3 -0.146 -0.115 -0.068 4 -0.145 -0.114 -0.066 0.013 5 -0.147 -0.103 -0.048 0.037 0.164 6 -0.135 -0.100 -0.051 0.029 0.153 -0.075 7 -0.144 -0.082 -0.048 0.023 0.141 -0.091 -0.120 8 -0.158 -0.092 -0.031 0.026 0.135 -0.101 -0.137 -0.117 9 -0.169 -0.106 -0.041 0.039 0.138 -0.104 -0.146 -0.132 -0.098 10 -0.180 -0.121 -0.058 0.027 0.154 -0.100 -0.150 -0.144 -0.118 -0.113 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1307.06 1305.11 1304.32 1305.16 1307.12 1302.32 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1302.91 1301.31 1299.88 1299.45 1298.23 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.139 -0.106 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.67 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.74 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.139 -0.086 0.027 0.005 -0.004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 725211 2 0.001 0.026 -0.016 2 725212 2 0.015 -0.007 -0.006 3 725221 2 0.016 0.113 0.020 4 725222 2 0.007 0.013 0.075 5 725231 2 0.054 0.191 0.088 6 725232 2 0.029 -0.158 -0.061 7 725241 2 0.010 -0.053 0.074 8 725242 2 0.169 0.263 0.221 9 725251 2 0.039 0.083 0.096 10 725252 2 0.305 0.277 0.358 11 725261 2 0.016 0.110 0.027 12 725262 2 0.023 0.132 0.032 13 725271 2 0.015 0.021 -0.119 14 725272 2 0.010 -0.046 -0.092 15 725281 2 0.003 0.000 0.049 16 725282 2 0.032 0.064 0.150 17 725301 2 0.063 0.129 0.180 18 725302 2 0.012 0.050 0.040 19 725311 2 0.017 0.128 -0.044 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 725312 2 0.029 0.162 -0.034 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.043 0.075 0.052 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.072 0.107 0.113 MEDIAN 2 0.017 0.074 0.036 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.025 0.124 0.117 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.001 -0.158 -0.119 LOWER HINGE 2 0.011 0.006 -0.025 UPPER HINGE 2 0.036 0.130 0.092 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.305 0.277 0.358 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.077 1.040 4.483 0.078 0.000 2 725212 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.066 0.940 5.293 0.067 0.001 3 725221 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.071 1.114 7.158 0.071 0.000 4 725222 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.077 0.697 3.818 0.078 -0.003 5 725231 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.075 1.161 6.445 0.077 -0.005 6 725232 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.085 4.494 34.448 0.067 -0.003 7 725241 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.082 2.900 22.127 0.072 -0.001 8 725242 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.081 0.985 6.222 0.085 -0.028 9 725251 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.090 2.739 16.178 0.077 -0.015 10 725252 1735 1872 138 1.000 0.067 0.545 5.200 0.071 -0.050 11 725261 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.097 -0.397 12.859 0.095 -0.001 12 725262 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.081 0.884 5.060 0.086 -0.002 13 725271 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.080 1.982 9.377 0.073 0.003 14 725272 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.092 1.066 5.857 0.091 -0.001 15 725281 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.063 0.698 4.542 0.065 -0.001 16 725282 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.055 0.584 4.502 0.058 -0.011 17 725301 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.073 1.326 6.769 0.072 -0.015 18 725302 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.074 0.644 5.084 0.076 -0.004 19 725311 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.099 1.742 7.368 0.092 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.097 1.761 7.734 0.091 0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.000 0.079 1.345 9.026 0.077 -0.007 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.012 1.060 7.503 0.010 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.079 1.053 6.334 0.077 -0.002 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.016 1.054 3.484 0.014 0.008 MINIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.055 -0.397 3.818 0.058 -0.050 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.072 0.697 5.072 0.071 -0.008 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.087 1.751 8.556 0.086 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.000 0.099 4.494 34.448 0.095 0.003 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.459 0.159 0.012 -1.206 5.357 -0.174 0.767 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.174 SERIES 725212 AND 725252 53 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.767 SERIES 725311 AND 725312 221 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.463 0.434 0.321 0.405 0.546 0.546 0.434 SDEV 0.166 0.264 0.173 0.150 0.178 0.164 0.191 SERR 0.068 0.108 0.033 0.012 0.014 0.013 0.015 EPS 0.797 0.869 0.883 0.930 0.958 0.958 0.936 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 0.998 0.056 1.686 8.570 0.058 -0.223 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.458 0.216 -0.169 77 172 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.80 1.00 1.10 1.90 11.34 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.222 -0.124 0.008 0.015 0.144 -0.053 -0.096 -0.037 0.007 -0.019 PACF -0.222 -0.183 -0.071 -0.026 0.147 0.027 -0.064 -0.091 -0.066 -0.083 95% C.L. 0.127 0.133 0.135 0.135 0.135 0.137 0.138 0.139 0.139 0.139 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.086 -0.263 -0.183 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.013 -0.020 -0.043 0.034 0.142 -0.052 -0.115 -0.087 -0.043 -0.023 PACF -0.013 -0.020 -0.044 0.032 0.142 -0.050 -0.112 -0.084 -0.064 -0.054 95% C.L. 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.130 0.130 0.132 0.133 0.133 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.003 -0.013 -0.020 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 0.998 0.054 1.801 8.678 0.054 -0.130 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.129 -0.100 -0.032 0.030 0.152 -0.053 -0.106 -0.058 -0.012 -0.019 PACF -0.129 -0.119 -0.064 0.004 0.152 -0.006 -0.085 -0.088 -0.069 -0.077 95% C.L. 0.127 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.133 0.133 0.135 0.135 0.135 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.035 -0.145 -0.119 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.18 MINUTES