RUN: NORW003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: NM571T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: NM571T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 725 1 Sandia Crest DENSITY_LATE PSME - 725 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 3000 3515-10730 1735 19 725 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 725211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1844 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 725212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1861 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 725261 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1955 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 725262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1889 1889 / 1900 1900 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 725272 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1847 1849 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 8.202 0.943 -4.839 40.284 0.104 0.081 2 725212 1820 1983 164 8.274 0.588 -0.478 3.194 0.061 0.412 3 725221 1836 1983 148 7.521 0.657 -1.013 4.419 0.094 0.092 4 725222 1839 1983 145 7.440 0.570 -0.634 3.181 0.082 0.154 5 725231 1837 1983 147 8.537 0.660 -0.968 4.026 0.077 0.203 6 725232 1840 1983 144 8.617 0.987 -5.158 42.439 0.105 -0.005 7 725241 1818 1983 166 7.905 0.809 -1.231 4.390 0.095 0.300 8 725242 1813 1983 171 8.389 0.636 -0.869 3.483 0.065 0.346 9 725251 1846 1983 138 7.553 0.756 -0.742 2.965 0.093 0.294 10 725252 1735 1872 138 8.396 0.564 -0.827 4.508 0.061 0.330 11 725261 1812 1983 172 8.297 1.033 -1.315 4.818 0.063 0.744 12 725262 1833 1983 151 7.997 2.678 -2.439 7.315 0.385 -0.009 13 725271 1837 1983 147 8.546 0.542 -0.175 2.677 0.064 0.191 14 725272 1820 1983 164 8.046 0.792 -1.184 4.381 0.086 0.383 15 725281 1807 1983 177 7.616 1.153 -0.956 3.079 0.064 0.842 16 725282 1816 1983 168 7.652 0.824 -1.360 4.835 0.072 0.618 17 725301 1740 1983 244 8.049 0.727 -0.662 3.372 0.087 0.262 18 725302 1800 1983 184 7.684 0.810 -0.462 3.008 0.102 0.263 19 725311 1763 1983 221 8.009 0.760 -1.106 4.239 0.078 0.417 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 7.074 0.843 -0.082 2.924 0.101 0.444 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1735 TO 1983 249 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 168 7.990 0.867 -1.325 7.677 0.097 0.318 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.427 0.457 1.353 11.573 0.069 0.226 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 162 8.028 0.776 -0.962 4.132 0.084 0.297 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.709 0.246 0.625 1.533 0.033 0.242 MINIMUM VALUE 138 7.074 0.542 -5.158 2.677 0.061 -0.009 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 7.634 0.647 -1.273 3.130 0.065 0.172 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 8.343 0.893 -0.648 4.663 0.098 0.415 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 8.617 2.678 -0.082 42.439 0.385 0.842 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.268 0.209 0.015 -0.175 3.103 -0.338 0.820 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.338 SERIES 725251 AND 725252 27 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.820 SERIES 725281 AND 725282 168 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.297 0.559 0.327 0.274 0.353 0.392 0.403 SDEV 0.326 0.153 0.264 0.224 0.248 0.206 0.217 SERR 0.133 0.062 0.050 0.018 0.019 0.016 0.017 EPS 0.658 0.917 0.886 0.880 0.913 0.925 0.928 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 8.072 0.497 -1.079 5.267 0.060 0.168 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.397 -0.261 2.809 68 181 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 1.34 1.00 1.07 2.42 15.45 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 164. 28. 138. 146. 174. 244. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.167 0.240 0.083 0.056 0.081 0.026 -0.017 -0.068 -0.124 -0.002 PACF 0.167 0.218 0.016 -0.010 0.057 -0.003 -0.055 -0.075 -0.102 0.061 95% C.L. 0.127 0.130 0.137 0.138 0.138 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.140 0.141 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.077 0.132 0.222 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 725211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00268648 8.01204872 2 725212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00597847 7.78121853 3 725221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00145089 7.41325998 4 725222 1 1.41169608 0.00164495 0.00000000 6.18481064 5 725231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00026929 8.55741024 6 725232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00112682 8.69870853 7 725241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00439272 7.53808737 8 725242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00038318 8.35605240 9 725251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00532164 7.18275452 10 725252 1 0.53179854 0.02007016 0.00000000 8.21735001 11 725261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01104848 9.21325397 12 725262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00911203 8.71149349 13 725271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00400029 8.24962425 14 725272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00197783 7.88421249 15 725281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01763378 9.18505669 16 725282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00961726 8.46420574 17 725301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00384842 8.52044868 18 725302 1 0.86362368 0.02526751 0.00000000 7.50236416 19 725311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00264555 7.71575594 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 725312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00166622 6.87106705 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.113 -5.084 42.876 0.104 0.070 2 725212 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.063 -0.296 4.081 0.061 0.232 3 725221 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.087 -0.995 4.342 0.093 0.082 4 725222 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.076 -0.656 3.116 0.082 0.127 5 725231 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.077 -0.960 4.012 0.077 0.202 6 725232 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.115 -5.149 42.495 0.104 -0.008 7 725241 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.099 -1.308 4.510 0.094 0.249 8 725242 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.076 -0.845 3.459 0.065 0.344 9 725251 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.096 -0.738 3.016 0.093 0.240 10 725252 1735 1872 138 1.000 0.065 -0.938 4.644 0.061 0.302 11 725261 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.119 -1.117 4.426 0.065 0.747 12 725262 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.332 -2.435 7.474 0.376 -0.024 13 725271 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.060 -0.358 2.686 0.064 0.098 14 725272 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.097 -1.111 4.290 0.087 0.356 15 725281 1807 1983 177 0.999 0.099 -0.580 3.251 0.063 0.613 16 725282 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.092 -0.847 4.217 0.071 0.460 17 725301 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.084 -0.722 3.662 0.087 0.137 18 725302 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.102 -0.430 3.031 0.101 0.205 19 725311 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.092 -1.270 4.306 0.078 0.391 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.118 -0.175 2.948 0.101 0.423 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.000 0.103 -1.301 7.842 0.096 0.262 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.057 1.391 11.960 0.068 0.199 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.094 -0.892 4.149 0.084 0.236 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.031 0.576 1.284 0.033 0.261 MINIMUM VALUE 138 0.999 0.060 -5.149 2.686 0.061 -0.024 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.077 -1.194 3.184 0.065 0.113 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.108 -0.618 4.468 0.098 0.373 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.000 0.332 -0.175 42.876 0.376 0.747 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 725211 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 725212 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 725221 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 725222 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 725231 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 725232 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 725241 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 725242 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 725251 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 725252 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 725261 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 725262 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 725271 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 725272 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 725281 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 725282 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 725301 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 725302 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 725311 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 725312 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.112 -5.155 43.607 0.104 0.056 2 725212 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.062 -0.368 3.966 0.061 0.206 3 725221 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.083 -1.162 4.899 0.093 0.006 4 725222 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.075 -0.664 3.052 0.082 0.104 5 725231 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.075 -1.077 4.414 0.077 0.151 6 725232 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.111 -5.570 47.519 0.104 -0.050 7 725241 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.092 -1.309 4.587 0.094 0.112 8 725242 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.066 -0.857 4.053 0.065 0.144 9 725251 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.084 -0.862 3.729 0.093 -0.001 10 725252 1735 1872 138 1.000 0.063 -0.930 4.780 0.061 0.248 11 725261 1812 1983 172 0.999 0.103 -1.036 5.234 0.065 0.665 12 725262 1833 1983 151 0.999 0.337 -2.274 7.054 0.376 -0.064 13 725271 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.058 -0.373 2.730 0.064 0.049 14 725272 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.087 -1.130 4.481 0.087 0.186 15 725281 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.077 -0.586 5.107 0.063 0.407 16 725282 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.086 -0.472 4.753 0.071 0.398 17 725301 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.083 -0.715 3.579 0.087 0.112 18 725302 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.101 -0.468 3.170 0.101 0.183 19 725311 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.089 -1.192 4.300 0.078 0.345 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 0.999 0.108 -0.373 3.110 0.101 0.320 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.000 0.098 -1.329 8.406 0.096 0.179 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.059 1.450 12.760 0.068 0.179 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.085 -0.896 4.448 0.084 0.148 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.027 0.648 1.349 0.033 0.232 MINIMUM VALUE 138 0.999 0.058 -5.570 2.730 0.061 -0.064 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.075 -1.177 3.654 0.065 0.052 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.102 -0.529 5.003 0.098 0.284 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.000 0.337 -0.368 47.519 0.376 0.665 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.313 0.186 0.013 -0.176 3.264 -0.176 0.775 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.176 SERIES 725252 AND 725262 40 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.775 SERIES 725301 AND 725302 184 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.319 0.573 0.315 0.292 0.368 0.420 0.420 SDEV 0.333 0.150 0.283 0.229 0.247 0.194 0.198 SERR 0.136 0.061 0.053 0.018 0.019 0.015 0.015 EPS 0.681 0.921 0.880 0.889 0.918 0.932 0.932 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 1.004 0.057 -1.166 5.139 0.060 0.076 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.321 -0.178 0.233 96 153 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.77 1.84 1.02 1.20 3.04 55.61 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.96 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.075 0.099 0.002 -0.007 0.028 -0.001 -0.031 -0.077 -0.135 -0.034 PACF 0.075 0.094 -0.012 -0.016 0.031 -0.002 -0.037 -0.073 -0.120 -0.005 95% C.L. 0.127 0.127 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.130 0.132 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.114 0.024 -0.059 0.024 -0.011 0.020 -0.034 -0.070 -0.142 -0.019 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.114 2 0.113 0.011 3 0.114 0.018 -0.063 4 0.116 0.017 -0.068 0.038 5 0.117 0.016 -0.067 0.040 -0.016 6 0.117 0.015 -0.066 0.040 -0.018 0.018 7 0.117 0.015 -0.065 0.038 -0.017 0.022 -0.034 8 0.115 0.016 -0.066 0.040 -0.022 0.023 -0.026 -0.067 9 0.107 0.013 -0.063 0.037 -0.017 0.015 -0.024 -0.053 -0.125 10 0.108 0.013 -0.063 0.037 -0.016 0.014 -0.024 -0.053 -0.126 0.008 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1272.76 1271.49 1273.47 1274.47 1276.10 1278.04 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1279.96 1281.67 1282.54 1280.64 1282.62 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.114 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.30 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.32 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.114 0.013 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 725211 1 0.005 0.056 2 725212 1 0.071 0.207 3 725221 1 0.023 0.006 4 725222 1 0.016 0.106 5 725231 1 0.024 0.153 6 725232 1 0.003 -0.050 7 725241 1 0.042 0.113 8 725242 1 0.104 0.144 9 725251 1 0.003 -0.001 10 725252 1 0.133 0.249 11 725261 1 0.463 0.665 12 725262 1 0.007 -0.064 13 725271 1 0.005 0.049 14 725272 1 0.039 0.187 15 725281 1 0.173 0.416 16 725282 1 0.177 0.410 17 725301 1 0.019 0.112 18 725302 1 0.043 0.184 19 725311 1 0.129 0.356 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 725312 1 0.117 0.323 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.080 0.181 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.107 0.181 MEDIAN 1 0.040 0.148 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.112 0.234 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.003 -0.064 LOWER HINGE 1 0.012 0.052 UPPER HINGE 1 0.123 0.286 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.463 0.665 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.112 -5.192 43.939 0.106 0.002 2 725212 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.060 -0.562 4.178 0.068 -0.036 3 725221 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.083 -1.164 4.900 0.093 -0.001 4 725222 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.074 -0.687 3.079 0.085 0.006 5 725231 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.074 -1.144 4.491 0.081 -0.005 6 725232 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.111 -5.521 46.908 0.102 0.001 7 725241 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.091 -1.332 4.705 0.100 -0.020 8 725242 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.065 -0.895 4.279 0.070 -0.042 9 725251 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.084 -0.862 3.728 0.093 0.000 10 725252 1735 1872 138 1.000 0.061 -0.865 4.904 0.069 -0.067 11 725261 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.077 -0.522 4.761 0.087 -0.125 12 725262 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.335 -2.257 7.005 0.390 -0.006 13 725271 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.058 -0.376 2.701 0.065 0.002 14 725272 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.085 -1.143 4.546 0.096 -0.012 15 725281 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.070 -0.728 5.726 0.074 0.001 16 725282 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.078 -0.648 4.957 0.084 -0.033 17 725301 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.082 -0.764 3.608 0.091 -0.009 18 725302 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.099 -0.472 3.148 0.109 -0.017 19 725311 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.083 -1.147 4.471 0.089 -0.029 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.102 -0.546 3.163 0.117 -0.038 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.000 0.094 -1.341 8.460 0.103 -0.021 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.059 1.436 12.689 0.069 0.031 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.083 -0.864 4.518 0.090 -0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.023 0.550 1.263 0.023 0.035 MINIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.058 -5.521 2.701 0.065 -0.125 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.072 -1.155 3.668 0.078 -0.035 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.095 -0.605 4.931 0.101 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.000 0.335 -0.376 46.908 0.390 0.006 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.337 0.187 0.014 -0.365 3.455 -0.165 0.797 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.165 SERIES 725252 AND 725262 40 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.797 SERIES 725301 AND 725302 184 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.298 0.573 0.321 0.312 0.397 0.439 0.429 SDEV 0.365 0.151 0.278 0.219 0.252 0.191 0.186 SERR 0.149 0.062 0.052 0.018 0.019 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.659 0.921 0.883 0.899 0.927 0.937 0.934 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 1.004 0.057 -1.168 5.066 0.066 -0.141 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.308 -0.165 0.217 94 155 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.83 1.58 1.01 1.27 2.85 43.25 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.97 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.141 0.092 -0.022 -0.035 0.035 -0.006 -0.013 -0.041 -0.120 0.007 PACF -0.141 0.073 0.000 -0.045 0.027 0.009 -0.020 -0.048 -0.130 -0.021 95% C.L. 0.127 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.133 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.025 -0.141 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.010 0.072 -0.014 -0.035 0.031 -0.003 -0.022 -0.062 -0.130 -0.013 PACF 0.010 0.072 -0.016 -0.040 0.034 0.001 -0.029 -0.062 -0.124 -0.005 95% C.L. 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.130 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.005 0.010 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 1.004 0.057 -1.091 4.866 0.059 0.132 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.131 0.084 -0.008 -0.032 0.026 -0.004 -0.032 -0.080 -0.139 -0.029 PACF 0.131 0.068 -0.028 -0.034 0.038 -0.007 -0.038 -0.072 -0.116 0.011 95% C.L. 0.127 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.131 0.133 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.022 0.132 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES