RUN: NORW001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: NM571W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: NM571W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 725 1 Sandia Crest WIDTH_RING PSME - 725 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 3000 3515-10730 1735 19 725 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 725211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1844 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 725212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1861 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 725261 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1955 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 725262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1900 1900 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 725272 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1847 1849 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 1.213 0.614 1.273 4.704 0.274 0.688 2 725212 1820 1983 164 1.503 0.744 1.357 4.701 0.315 0.697 3 725221 1836 1983 148 1.720 0.706 0.265 2.769 0.306 0.588 4 725222 1839 1983 145 1.656 0.691 0.584 3.578 0.286 0.603 5 725231 1837 1983 147 1.192 0.441 1.090 5.863 0.306 0.443 6 725232 1840 1983 144 1.220 0.453 0.825 5.187 0.310 0.487 7 725241 1818 1983 166 1.470 0.630 0.472 3.201 0.297 0.673 8 725242 1813 1983 171 1.385 0.644 0.551 2.598 0.279 0.726 9 725251 1846 1983 138 1.779 0.800 0.367 2.394 0.345 0.555 10 725252 1735 1872 138 1.453 0.583 0.555 2.829 0.211 0.760 11 725261 1812 1983 172 1.391 1.016 0.706 2.354 0.265 0.896 12 725262 1833 1983 151 1.188 0.934 1.018 2.763 0.245 0.932 13 725271 1837 1983 147 1.817 0.772 0.328 2.731 0.373 0.499 14 725272 1820 1983 164 1.406 0.718 0.743 3.732 0.353 0.686 15 725281 1807 1983 177 1.423 1.064 1.142 3.544 0.228 0.929 16 725282 1816 1983 168 1.379 0.749 0.778 3.130 0.237 0.880 17 725301 1740 1983 244 1.263 0.809 1.371 4.137 0.253 0.856 18 725302 1800 1983 184 0.871 0.316 0.328 2.764 0.270 0.644 19 725311 1763 1983 221 0.730 0.337 0.372 3.029 0.354 0.645 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 0.743 0.455 2.244 10.629 0.337 0.734 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1735 TO 1983 249 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 168 1.340 0.674 0.818 3.832 0.292 0.696 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.305 0.205 0.491 1.876 0.046 0.147 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 162 1.388 0.698 0.724 3.165 0.292 0.687 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.285 0.267 0.694 1.656 0.067 0.213 MINIMUM VALUE 138 0.730 0.316 0.265 2.354 0.211 0.443 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.202 0.519 0.422 2.763 0.259 0.595 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.487 0.786 1.116 4.419 0.326 0.808 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.817 1.064 2.244 10.629 0.373 0.932 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.637 0.171 0.012 -0.923 4.063 0.090 0.973 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.090 SERIES 725262 AND 725311 151 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.973 SERIES 725261 AND 725262 151 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.706 0.699 0.683 0.615 0.649 0.662 0.638 SDEV 0.114 0.128 0.135 0.188 0.196 0.160 0.171 SERR 0.047 0.052 0.026 0.015 0.015 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.916 0.953 0.972 0.969 0.973 0.974 0.971 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 1.388 0.582 0.664 3.354 0.252 0.720 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.541 0.265 0.191 34 215 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 1.62 1.01 1.06 2.68 49.38 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 164. 28. 138. 146. 174. 244. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.717 0.633 0.591 0.504 0.482 0.469 0.405 0.426 0.442 0.427 PACF 0.717 0.245 0.158 -0.015 0.085 0.083 -0.041 0.118 0.109 0.043 95% C.L. 0.127 0.181 0.213 0.238 0.255 0.269 0.282 0.291 0.301 0.311 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.570 0.487 0.178 0.166 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 725211 1 2.01185942 0.04458493 0.00000000 0.92447603 2 725212 1 1.85304177 0.02145421 0.00000000 0.99488354 3 725221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00916720 2.40268612 4 725222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01066371 2.43458915 5 725231 1 1.19333494 0.06806029 0.00000000 1.07664907 6 725232 1 0.80247802 0.03310358 0.00000000 1.05611873 7 725241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00464878 1.85865498 8 725242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00700617 1.98750126 9 725251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01298565 2.68170524 10 725252 1 2.04731917 0.01194755 0.00000000 0.45654660 11 725261 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 725262 1 3.39772391 0.02225088 0.00000000 0.21846280 13 725271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01086695 2.62102509 14 725272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00838611 2.11828184 15 725281 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 725282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01302810 2.47956514 17 725301 1 2.86633420 0.01779873 0.00000000 0.61696178 18 725302 1 0.69700754 0.02205832 0.00000000 0.70418388 19 725311 1 0.53062385 0.03252520 0.00000000 0.65792650 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 725312 1 1.87977135 0.04853299 0.00000000 0.58703113 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 1.001 0.367 0.324 2.418 0.269 0.556 2 725212 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.350 0.354 2.875 0.310 0.441 3 725221 1836 1983 148 0.999 0.350 0.136 2.903 0.304 0.438 4 725222 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.318 0.117 2.863 0.285 0.399 5 725231 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.314 0.374 4.198 0.303 0.269 6 725232 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.346 1.137 8.482 0.308 0.371 7 725241 1818 1983 166 0.998 0.372 -0.113 2.781 0.295 0.560 8 725242 1813 1983 171 0.996 0.375 0.344 2.723 0.277 0.565 9 725251 1846 1983 138 0.994 0.322 -0.116 2.704 0.343 0.211 10 725252 1735 1872 138 1.000 0.238 -0.810 3.649 0.210 0.481 11 725261 1812 1983 172 0.999 0.360 -0.003 2.625 0.263 0.582 12 725262 1833 1983 151 1.019 0.408 0.840 3.927 0.242 0.692 13 725271 1837 1983 147 0.997 0.334 -0.088 2.724 0.371 0.223 14 725272 1820 1983 164 0.994 0.380 -0.240 2.817 0.346 0.443 15 725281 1807 1983 177 1.004 0.296 0.175 3.296 0.226 0.566 16 725282 1816 1983 168 1.029 0.349 1.067 5.866 0.236 0.587 17 725301 1740 1983 244 1.002 0.283 -0.551 3.365 0.252 0.472 18 725302 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.291 -0.588 2.951 0.268 0.430 19 725311 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.432 0.191 2.922 0.352 0.607 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.383 0.196 3.600 0.336 0.539 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.002 0.343 0.137 3.485 0.290 0.472 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.008 0.046 0.502 1.409 0.045 0.130 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.350 0.156 2.913 0.290 0.477 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.002 0.058 0.464 0.872 0.065 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 138 0.994 0.238 -0.810 2.418 0.210 0.211 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.999 0.316 -0.115 2.753 0.258 0.414 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.374 0.349 3.625 0.323 0.566 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.029 0.432 1.137 8.482 0.371 0.692 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 725211 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 725212 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 725221 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 725222 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 725231 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 725232 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 725241 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 725242 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 725251 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 725252 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 725261 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 725262 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 725271 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 725272 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 725281 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 725282 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 725301 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 725302 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 725311 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 725312 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 0.998 0.342 0.164 2.420 0.269 0.505 2 725212 1820 1983 164 0.997 0.333 0.216 2.612 0.310 0.382 3 725221 1836 1983 148 0.996 0.336 0.094 3.114 0.304 0.395 4 725222 1839 1983 145 0.995 0.295 -0.099 2.912 0.284 0.328 5 725231 1837 1983 147 0.998 0.308 0.706 6.284 0.303 0.233 6 725232 1840 1983 144 0.998 0.331 0.726 5.973 0.308 0.343 7 725241 1818 1983 166 0.991 0.352 -0.086 2.756 0.295 0.517 8 725242 1813 1983 171 0.996 0.358 0.438 3.281 0.277 0.528 9 725251 1846 1983 138 0.999 0.312 -0.194 2.857 0.343 0.175 10 725252 1735 1872 138 0.999 0.233 -0.840 3.692 0.210 0.468 11 725261 1812 1983 172 0.997 0.346 -0.071 2.751 0.263 0.546 12 725262 1833 1983 151 0.994 0.308 0.040 3.615 0.241 0.546 13 725271 1837 1983 147 0.999 0.326 -0.145 2.936 0.371 0.192 14 725272 1820 1983 164 0.996 0.379 -0.040 3.079 0.345 0.422 15 725281 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.291 0.111 3.214 0.226 0.560 16 725282 1816 1983 168 0.998 0.286 0.034 3.778 0.236 0.477 17 725301 1740 1983 244 0.999 0.270 -0.667 3.430 0.252 0.419 18 725302 1800 1983 184 0.999 0.286 -0.640 3.015 0.268 0.400 19 725311 1763 1983 221 0.998 0.425 0.231 3.240 0.352 0.596 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 0.998 0.366 -0.040 3.351 0.336 0.501 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 0.997 0.324 -0.003 3.415 0.290 0.427 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.002 0.043 0.398 0.994 0.045 0.123 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 0.998 0.328 -0.003 3.164 0.290 0.445 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.003 0.056 0.312 0.638 0.065 0.160 MINIMUM VALUE 138 0.991 0.233 -0.840 2.420 0.210 0.175 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.996 0.293 -0.122 2.885 0.257 0.362 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 0.999 0.349 0.190 3.523 0.323 0.523 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.000 0.425 0.726 6.284 0.371 0.596 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.621 0.112 0.008 -0.683 4.468 0.213 0.864 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.213 SERIES 725251 AND 725252 27 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.864 SERIES 725221 AND 725222 145 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.625 0.732 0.681 0.580 0.691 0.692 0.636 SDEV 0.122 0.109 0.136 0.154 0.140 0.136 0.127 SERR 0.050 0.045 0.026 0.012 0.011 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.884 0.960 0.972 0.964 0.977 0.977 0.971 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 0.992 0.258 -0.648 3.496 0.243 0.400 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.155 0.045 0.126 60 189 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.43 1.01 1.07 1.50 15.76 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.398 0.235 0.170 0.086 0.025 -0.048 -0.186 -0.138 -0.071 -0.078 PACF 0.398 0.091 0.059 -0.018 -0.031 -0.072 -0.178 -0.002 0.045 -0.015 95% C.L. 0.127 0.145 0.151 0.154 0.155 0.155 0.156 0.159 0.161 0.161 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.169 0.362 0.091 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.385 0.254 0.195 0.110 0.049 -0.016 -0.198 -0.153 -0.063 -0.076 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.385 2 0.338 0.124 3 0.328 0.099 0.074 4 0.329 0.100 0.077 -0.009 5 0.329 0.102 0.079 0.000 -0.027 6 0.327 0.102 0.084 0.006 -0.008 -0.058 7 0.314 0.101 0.085 0.024 0.015 0.015 -0.222 8 0.309 0.101 0.085 0.025 0.017 0.017 -0.215 -0.022 9 0.311 0.118 0.084 0.024 0.015 0.010 -0.223 -0.046 0.079 10 0.311 0.118 0.085 0.024 0.015 0.010 -0.223 -0.047 0.078 0.003 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2069.23 2031.19 2029.32 2029.96 2031.94 2033.76 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2034.92 2024.32 2026.20 2026.64 2028.64 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.338 0.124 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 16.17 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 119.28 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.338 0.238 0.122 0.071 0.039 0.022 0.012 0.007 0.004 0.0022 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 725211 2 0.265 0.457 0.096 2 725212 2 0.156 0.343 0.105 3 725221 2 0.181 0.351 0.116 4 725222 2 0.146 0.276 0.172 5 725231 2 0.060 0.232 0.008 6 725232 2 0.152 0.308 0.105 7 725241 2 0.325 0.398 0.232 8 725242 2 0.305 0.433 0.182 9 725251 2 0.060 0.164 0.076 10 725252 2 0.223 0.443 0.054 11 725261 2 0.347 0.432 0.209 12 725262 2 0.341 0.427 0.222 13 725271 2 0.050 0.171 0.113 14 725272 2 0.203 0.359 0.152 15 725281 2 0.320 0.537 0.048 16 725282 2 0.239 0.439 0.089 17 725301 2 0.182 0.387 0.078 18 725302 2 0.198 0.365 0.087 19 725311 2 0.363 0.576 0.042 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 725312 2 0.254 0.470 0.061 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.218 0.378 0.112 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.098 0.109 0.063 MEDIAN 2 0.213 0.392 0.100 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.158 0.116 0.093 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.050 0.164 0.008 LOWER HINGE 2 0.154 0.325 0.069 UPPER HINGE 2 0.312 0.441 0.162 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.363 0.576 0.232 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.294 0.201 3.839 0.323 0.006 2 725212 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.306 0.336 2.855 0.348 0.001 3 725221 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.306 0.054 3.458 0.349 -0.014 4 725222 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.273 -0.214 3.052 0.316 -0.020 5 725231 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.300 0.747 6.550 0.328 0.000 6 725232 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.309 0.695 5.912 0.340 -0.017 7 725241 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.293 -0.092 2.794 0.347 -0.038 8 725242 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.299 0.106 2.908 0.335 -0.006 9 725251 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.306 -0.258 3.037 0.369 -0.012 10 725252 1735 1872 138 1.000 0.205 -0.584 3.903 0.240 0.002 11 725261 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.283 -0.127 3.463 0.315 -0.034 12 725262 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.251 -0.521 4.242 0.279 -0.018 13 725271 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.318 -0.219 2.844 0.395 -0.003 14 725272 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.339 -0.071 3.872 0.389 -0.013 15 725281 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.240 0.133 3.791 0.254 0.003 16 725282 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.249 -0.054 3.491 0.273 0.002 17 725301 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.244 -0.638 3.816 0.285 -0.002 18 725302 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.261 -0.601 3.331 0.301 -0.017 19 725311 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.338 -0.222 3.620 0.412 -0.004 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.316 -0.495 4.090 0.380 -0.001 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.000 0.287 -0.091 3.743 0.329 -0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.035 0.393 0.962 0.047 0.012 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.296 -0.109 3.556 0.332 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.051 0.496 0.843 0.066 0.017 MINIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.205 -0.638 2.794 0.240 -0.038 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.256 -0.376 3.045 0.293 -0.017 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.307 0.120 3.888 0.359 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.000 0.339 0.747 6.550 0.412 0.006 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.658 0.103 0.007 -0.859 4.674 0.305 0.888 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.305 SERIES 725251 AND 725252 27 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.888 SERIES 725231 AND 725232 144 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.597 0.597 0.624 0.633 0.751 0.746 0.648 SDEV 0.163 0.209 0.145 0.120 0.090 0.088 0.097 SERR 0.066 0.085 0.027 0.010 0.007 0.007 0.007 EPS 0.871 0.928 0.964 0.971 0.983 0.982 0.972 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 0.997 0.233 -0.691 3.778 0.272 -0.029 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.136 0.038 0.108 56 193 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.49 1.00 1.06 1.55 3.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.029 -0.048 0.057 0.001 0.009 -0.001 -0.161 -0.086 0.033 0.004 PACF -0.029 -0.049 0.055 0.002 0.014 -0.004 -0.161 -0.100 0.012 0.016 95% C.L. 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.131 0.132 0.132 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 0.002 0.055 0.001 0.004 -0.010 -0.163 -0.091 0.021 -0.002 PACF 0.003 0.002 0.055 0.001 0.004 -0.013 -0.163 -0.094 0.022 0.017 95% C.L. 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.130 0.131 0.132 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.003 0.003 0.002 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 0.997 0.256 -0.632 3.483 0.240 0.398 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.396 0.267 0.172 0.069 0.003 -0.064 -0.185 -0.152 -0.077 -0.080 PACF 0.396 0.131 0.034 -0.043 -0.046 -0.070 -0.160 -0.019 0.062 -0.013 95% C.L. 0.127 0.145 0.153 0.156 0.157 0.157 0.157 0.160 0.163 0.163 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.172 0.344 0.131 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 3.67 MINUTES