RUN: NORW001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: NM571X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: NM571X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 725 1 Sandia Crest DENSITY_MAXIMUM PSME - 725 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 3000 3515-10730 1735 19 725 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 725211 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1844 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 725212 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1861 1861 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 725261 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1955 1956 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 725262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1900 1900 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 725272 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1847 1849 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 0.927 0.074 -0.838 5.254 0.078 0.186 2 725212 1820 1983 164 0.920 0.061 -0.442 3.440 0.060 0.314 3 725221 1836 1983 148 0.852 0.075 -1.182 5.203 0.091 0.070 4 725222 1839 1983 145 0.839 0.062 -0.675 3.263 0.077 0.156 5 725231 1837 1983 147 0.957 0.071 -1.201 4.785 0.074 0.173 6 725232 1840 1983 144 0.969 0.075 -1.366 6.013 0.076 0.250 7 725241 1818 1983 166 0.896 0.096 -1.362 4.706 0.096 0.328 8 725242 1813 1983 171 0.939 0.072 -1.050 4.130 0.062 0.416 9 725251 1846 1983 138 0.848 0.083 -0.716 3.157 0.094 0.247 10 725252 1735 1872 138 0.941 0.059 -0.792 4.466 0.055 0.320 11 725261 1812 1983 172 0.934 0.121 -1.696 5.911 0.062 0.750 12 725262 1833 1983 151 1.006 0.113 -1.694 6.552 0.067 0.736 13 725271 1837 1983 147 0.956 0.057 -0.264 2.921 0.060 0.167 14 725272 1820 1983 164 0.906 0.090 -1.429 5.008 0.088 0.364 15 725281 1807 1983 177 0.849 0.140 -1.050 3.268 0.067 0.846 16 725282 1816 1983 168 0.862 0.097 -1.653 5.787 0.071 0.632 17 725301 1740 1983 244 0.901 0.079 -0.751 3.754 0.084 0.231 18 725302 1800 1983 184 0.867 0.092 -0.591 3.453 0.103 0.231 19 725311 1763 1983 221 0.890 0.088 -1.468 5.401 0.083 0.349 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 0.796 0.103 -0.453 3.044 0.110 0.425 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 20 FROM 1735 TO 1983 249 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 168 0.903 0.085 -1.034 4.476 0.078 0.360 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.053 0.022 0.445 1.142 0.015 0.218 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 162 0.903 0.081 -1.050 4.586 0.077 0.317 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.083 0.025 0.702 1.974 0.025 0.212 MINIMUM VALUE 138 0.796 0.057 -1.696 2.921 0.055 0.070 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 0.857 0.071 -1.397 3.354 0.065 0.209 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 0.940 0.097 -0.695 5.328 0.089 0.420 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.006 0.140 -0.264 6.552 0.110 0.846 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.346 0.216 0.016 -0.584 3.700 -0.433 0.842 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.433 SERIES 725251 AND 725252 27 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.842 SERIES 725281 AND 725282 168 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.350 0.595 0.332 0.332 0.478 0.493 0.441 SDEV 0.301 0.138 0.263 0.187 0.187 0.171 0.220 SERR 0.123 0.056 0.050 0.015 0.014 0.013 0.017 EPS 0.711 0.927 0.888 0.907 0.946 0.949 0.937 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 0.909 0.058 -1.161 5.556 0.062 0.129 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.426 -0.282 0.331 73 176 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.38 1.01 1.10 1.47 28.07 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.96 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 164. 28. 138. 146. 174. 244. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.128 0.198 0.092 -0.009 0.096 0.027 -0.014 -0.088 -0.123 0.007 PACF 0.128 0.185 0.050 -0.063 0.081 0.020 -0.049 -0.110 -0.095 0.069 95% C.L. 0.127 0.129 0.134 0.135 0.135 0.136 0.136 0.136 0.137 0.139 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.055 0.105 0.189 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 725211 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00052757 0.88911062 2 725212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00053356 0.87609565 3 725221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013606 0.84209323 4 725222 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00022654 0.85570979 5 725231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007590 0.96296340 6 725232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011346 0.97683662 7 725241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00051430 0.85271853 8 725242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002659 0.93683589 9 725251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00058901 0.80732465 10 725252 1 0.07605318 0.01144231 0.00000000 0.90307510 11 725261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00134186 1.04491353 12 725262 1 0.19218226 0.01414205 0.00000000 0.92702919 13 725271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037390 0.92831796 14 725272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017317 0.89156681 15 725281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00221003 1.04550660 16 725282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00121671 0.96483606 17 725301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00040095 0.95026410 18 725302 1 0.13296403 0.06052909 0.00000000 0.85586512 19 725311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00026817 0.85982603 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 725312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012747 0.78099996 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.076 -1.068 5.810 0.077 0.108 2 725212 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.060 -0.516 4.432 0.060 0.171 3 725221 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.087 -1.170 5.124 0.091 0.064 4 725222 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.073 -0.665 3.191 0.077 0.130 5 725231 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.074 -1.178 4.738 0.073 0.170 6 725232 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.077 -1.316 5.866 0.076 0.244 7 725241 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.104 -1.404 4.802 0.096 0.286 8 725242 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.076 -1.034 4.120 0.062 0.414 9 725251 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.094 -0.741 3.117 0.094 0.188 10 725252 1735 1872 138 1.000 0.060 -0.984 4.764 0.055 0.274 11 725261 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.124 -1.400 5.310 0.064 0.754 12 725262 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.105 -1.445 6.646 0.068 0.680 13 725271 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.058 -0.416 3.121 0.060 0.099 14 725272 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.099 -1.385 4.925 0.089 0.338 15 725281 1807 1983 177 0.999 0.104 -0.765 3.733 0.067 0.588 16 725282 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.094 -1.211 5.409 0.071 0.446 17 725301 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.082 -0.888 4.087 0.084 0.116 18 725302 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.103 -0.608 3.572 0.102 0.168 19 725311 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.097 -1.578 5.439 0.083 0.327 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.129 -0.499 3.060 0.110 0.414 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.000 0.089 -1.013 4.563 0.078 0.299 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.020 0.358 1.042 0.015 0.198 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.091 -1.051 4.751 0.076 0.259 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.028 0.647 1.707 0.025 0.265 MINIMUM VALUE 138 0.999 0.058 -1.578 3.060 0.055 0.064 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.075 -1.350 3.652 0.065 0.149 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.103 -0.703 5.360 0.090 0.414 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.000 0.129 -0.416 6.646 0.110 0.754 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 725211 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 725212 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 725221 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 725222 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 725231 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 725232 -67 96 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 725241 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 725242 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 725251 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 725252 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 725261 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 725262 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 725271 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 725272 -67 109 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 725281 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 725282 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 725301 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 725302 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 725311 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 725312 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.074 -1.062 5.639 0.077 0.062 2 725212 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.059 -0.581 4.215 0.060 0.134 3 725221 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.084 -1.389 5.920 0.091 -0.012 4 725222 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.073 -0.631 3.183 0.077 0.116 5 725231 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.072 -1.278 5.142 0.073 0.139 6 725232 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.072 -1.368 6.511 0.076 0.131 7 725241 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.095 -1.399 4.836 0.096 0.146 8 725242 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.066 -1.118 4.911 0.062 0.219 9 725251 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.082 -0.822 3.757 0.094 -0.058 10 725252 1735 1872 138 1.000 0.058 -0.976 4.919 0.055 0.215 11 725261 1812 1983 172 0.999 0.110 -1.328 6.070 0.064 0.684 12 725262 1833 1983 151 0.999 0.095 -1.826 8.019 0.067 0.603 13 725271 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.056 -0.449 3.211 0.060 0.052 14 725272 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.089 -1.404 5.191 0.089 0.179 15 725281 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.085 -0.631 5.915 0.067 0.408 16 725282 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.090 -0.768 5.626 0.071 0.404 17 725301 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.082 -0.890 4.054 0.084 0.102 18 725302 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.102 -0.628 3.710 0.102 0.150 19 725311 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.094 -1.527 5.500 0.083 0.274 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 0.999 0.120 -0.676 3.407 0.110 0.328 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.000 0.083 -1.038 4.987 0.078 0.214 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.017 0.386 1.238 0.015 0.190 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.083 -1.019 5.031 0.076 0.148 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.022 0.725 1.872 0.025 0.192 MINIMUM VALUE 138 0.999 0.056 -1.826 3.183 0.055 -0.058 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.072 -1.379 3.905 0.065 0.109 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.094 -0.654 5.777 0.090 0.301 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.000 0.120 -0.449 8.019 0.110 0.684 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.416 0.160 0.012 -0.063 3.334 -0.190 0.792 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.190 SERIES 725251 AND 725252 27 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.792 SERIES 725301 AND 725302 184 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.361 0.602 0.327 0.351 0.501 0.511 0.467 SDEV 0.307 0.138 0.283 0.186 0.164 0.159 0.201 SERR 0.125 0.056 0.054 0.015 0.013 0.012 0.015 EPS 0.720 0.929 0.886 0.914 0.951 0.952 0.943 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 1.004 0.058 -1.340 5.943 0.060 0.076 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.401 -0.224 0.275 91 158 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.29 0.82 1.00 1.12 1.94 7.34 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.95 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.076 0.079 0.012 -0.046 0.040 0.013 -0.028 -0.108 -0.132 -0.032 PACF 0.076 0.074 0.001 -0.053 0.047 0.014 -0.036 -0.111 -0.110 0.001 95% C.L. 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.130 0.132 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.118 0.032 -0.039 0.027 0.022 0.048 0.000 -0.106 -0.123 -0.050 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.118 2 0.116 0.018 3 0.117 0.023 -0.046 4 0.119 0.022 -0.050 0.037 5 0.118 0.023 -0.050 0.035 0.017 6 0.118 0.022 -0.048 0.034 0.012 0.040 7 0.118 0.022 -0.048 0.034 0.013 0.041 -0.009 8 0.117 0.026 -0.047 0.038 0.007 0.044 0.004 -0.108 9 0.106 0.027 -0.042 0.038 0.011 0.039 0.006 -0.097 -0.098 10 0.104 0.024 -0.042 0.039 0.011 0.040 0.005 -0.096 -0.095 -0.023 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1304.23 1302.71 1304.63 1306.11 1307.77 1309.69 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1311.29 1313.27 1312.32 1311.93 1313.80 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.118 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 1.40 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 101.42 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.118 0.014 0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 725211 1 0.017 0.062 2 725212 1 0.024 0.134 3 725221 1 0.009 -0.013 4 725222 1 0.022 0.117 5 725231 1 0.021 0.140 6 725232 1 0.019 0.132 7 725241 1 0.041 0.146 8 725242 1 0.081 0.219 9 725251 1 0.005 -0.059 10 725252 1 0.111 0.216 11 725261 1 0.487 0.685 12 725262 1 0.383 0.604 13 725271 1 0.012 0.052 14 725272 1 0.035 0.179 15 725281 1 0.175 0.417 16 725282 1 0.179 0.419 17 725301 1 0.017 0.102 18 725302 1 0.030 0.151 19 725311 1 0.081 0.284 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 725312 1 0.116 0.330 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.093 0.216 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.129 0.192 MEDIAN 1 0.033 0.149 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.096 0.198 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.005 -0.059 LOWER HINGE 1 0.018 0.109 UPPER HINGE 1 0.114 0.307 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.487 0.685 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 725211 1838 1983 146 1.000 0.074 -1.105 5.774 0.080 -0.007 2 725212 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.058 -0.653 4.348 0.064 -0.011 3 725221 1836 1983 148 1.000 0.084 -1.383 5.907 0.090 0.001 4 725222 1839 1983 145 1.000 0.072 -0.681 3.294 0.080 0.009 5 725231 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.072 -1.329 5.262 0.077 0.005 6 725232 1840 1983 144 1.000 0.072 -1.324 6.151 0.079 0.005 7 725241 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.094 -1.436 5.019 0.102 -0.021 8 725242 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.064 -1.187 5.216 0.070 -0.041 9 725251 1846 1983 138 1.000 0.082 -0.794 3.706 0.091 0.001 10 725252 1735 1872 138 1.000 0.056 -0.885 4.884 0.062 -0.056 11 725261 1812 1983 172 1.000 0.080 -0.972 5.891 0.085 -0.123 12 725262 1833 1983 151 1.000 0.075 -1.072 4.345 0.086 -0.101 13 725271 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.056 -0.448 3.218 0.061 0.005 14 725272 1820 1983 164 1.000 0.088 -1.429 5.268 0.097 -0.010 15 725281 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.077 -0.763 6.577 0.078 0.023 16 725282 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.081 -0.873 5.594 0.082 -0.013 17 725301 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.081 -0.931 4.093 0.088 -0.008 18 725302 1800 1983 184 1.000 0.100 -0.613 3.687 0.108 -0.012 19 725311 1763 1983 221 1.000 0.090 -1.532 5.837 0.092 -0.016 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 725312 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.113 -0.842 3.760 0.126 -0.029 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 169 1.000 0.079 -1.013 4.892 0.085 -0.020 STANDARD DEVIATION 31 0.000 0.014 0.316 1.019 0.016 0.036 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 164 1.000 0.079 -0.952 5.117 0.084 -0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 28 0.000 0.014 0.548 1.879 0.014 0.028 MINIMUM VALUE 138 1.000 0.056 -1.532 3.218 0.061 -0.123 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 146 1.000 0.072 -1.327 3.926 0.077 -0.025 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 174 1.000 0.086 -0.778 5.805 0.092 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 244 1.000 0.113 -0.448 6.577 0.126 0.023 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 190 0.442 0.149 0.011 -0.186 3.765 -0.153 0.806 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.153 SERIES 725251 AND 725252 27 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.806 SERIES 725301 AND 725302 184 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 57.98 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 6. 28. 153. 171. 171. 171. RBAR 0.335 0.603 0.314 0.359 0.538 0.538 0.479 SDEV 0.325 0.134 0.284 0.171 0.143 0.148 0.186 SERR 0.133 0.055 0.054 0.014 0.011 0.011 0.014 EPS 0.696 0.930 0.880 0.916 0.957 0.957 0.946 NSS 4.6 8.7 16.0 19.5 19.2 19.0 19.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 1.003 0.058 -1.369 5.815 0.066 -0.150 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.371 -0.199 0.249 77 172 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.68 1.01 1.13 1.81 5.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.149 0.063 -0.005 -0.073 0.040 0.008 -0.015 -0.067 -0.107 0.008 PACF -0.149 0.042 0.011 -0.076 0.019 0.025 -0.014 -0.081 -0.126 -0.016 95% C.L. 0.127 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.133 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.024 -0.150 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.006 0.043 -0.006 -0.071 0.032 0.012 -0.026 -0.089 -0.122 -0.008 PACF 0.006 0.043 -0.006 -0.073 0.034 0.018 -0.031 -0.096 -0.115 0.002 95% C.L. 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.129 0.131 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.002 0.006 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1735 1983 249 1.003 0.058 -1.283 5.569 0.059 0.129 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.129 0.056 -0.007 -0.067 0.025 0.010 -0.038 -0.107 -0.133 -0.022 PACF 0.129 0.040 -0.019 -0.067 0.044 0.009 -0.046 -0.104 -0.102 0.018 95% C.L. 0.127 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.131 0.134 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.018 0.129 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.28 MINUTES