RUN: NORW003 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: NORW005E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: NORW005E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 539 1 Skjerstad,Botn.Soldatenf WIDTH_EARLY PISY - 539 2 Norway Scots pine, Scotch pine 40 6704-1527 1761 1978 - 539 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 3 539022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1884 1884 / 1906 1906 / 1936 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 539041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1893 1893 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 539072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 10 IN 1 GAPS / 1834 1843 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 539091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 21 IN 2 GAPS / 1828 1841 / 1883 1889 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 539092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 27 IN 1 GAPS / 1823 1849 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 539101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1884 1885 / 1887 1887 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 539011 1833 1978 146 0.398 0.146 0.375 2.911 0.240 0.632 2 539012 1846 1977 132 0.552 0.200 0.259 3.475 0.236 0.690 3 539022 1848 1978 131 0.420 0.205 0.382 2.993 0.250 0.791 4 539041 1883 1977 95 0.790 0.321 0.943 4.557 0.275 0.559 5 539051 1829 1977 149 0.460 0.229 1.916 7.643 0.207 0.795 6 539052 1823 1977 155 0.478 0.193 0.865 3.427 0.216 0.726 7 539061 1840 1977 138 0.659 0.239 0.343 2.676 0.220 0.745 8 539062 1841 1977 137 0.734 0.250 0.289 3.155 0.206 0.753 9 539071 1855 1977 123 0.801 0.222 0.595 2.611 0.182 0.664 10 539072 1761 1977 217 0.599 0.257 0.154 2.077 0.165 0.889 11 539082 1849 1977 129 0.465 0.203 0.640 3.048 0.215 0.771 12 539091 1790 1977 188 0.450 0.296 1.141 5.033 0.278 0.685 13 539092 1787 1977 191 0.596 0.302 0.759 3.353 0.213 0.833 14 539101 1770 1978 209 0.461 0.230 1.119 4.121 0.194 0.854 15 539102 1761 1978 218 0.470 0.291 1.139 4.255 0.264 0.854 16 539111 1844 1977 134 0.682 0.250 1.120 4.920 0.247 0.612 17 539112 1843 1977 135 0.647 0.318 0.849 3.494 0.282 0.683 18 539121 1853 1977 125 0.829 0.236 0.692 3.598 0.191 0.673 19 539122 1852 1977 126 0.770 0.288 0.687 3.161 0.222 0.745 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 539131 1827 1977 151 0.540 0.184 0.386 3.067 0.214 0.699 21 539132 1840 1977 138 0.588 0.205 0.547 3.529 0.264 0.628 22 539141 1825 1977 153 0.693 0.343 0.177 2.285 0.252 0.837 23 539142 1826 1977 152 0.544 0.226 0.956 4.112 0.228 0.771 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1761 TO 1978 218 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 148 0.592 0.245 0.710 3.630 0.229 0.734 STANDARD DEVIATION 29 0.133 0.050 0.416 1.164 0.032 0.087 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 138 0.588 0.236 0.687 3.427 0.222 0.745 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 23 0.220 0.085 0.571 1.095 0.041 0.115 MINIMUM VALUE 94 0.398 0.146 0.154 2.077 0.165 0.559 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 130 0.468 0.205 0.378 3.021 0.210 0.678 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 154 0.687 0.290 0.949 4.116 0.251 0.793 MAXIMUM VALUE 218 0.829 0.343 1.916 7.643 0.282 0.889 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.331 0.204 0.013 -0.158 2.615 -0.300 0.809 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.300 SERIES 539041 AND 539141 95 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.809 SERIES 539101 AND 539102 209 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1786. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 10. 10. 120. 231. 253. 253. RBAR 0.703 0.262 0.398 0.264 0.418 0.466 0.502 SDEV 0.000 0.245 0.321 0.275 0.231 0.209 0.197 SERR 0.000 0.077 0.102 0.025 0.015 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.898 0.727 0.910 0.885 0.942 0.952 0.959 NSS 3.7 7.5 15.3 21.6 22.7 23.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1761 1978 218 0.537 0.198 0.789 3.921 0.160 0.842 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.601 0.280 0.058 54 164 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.51 1.01 1.11 1.62 14.65 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.11 0.76 0.89 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 138. 22. 95. 132. 154. 218. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.838 0.691 0.572 0.443 0.336 0.282 0.274 0.291 0.308 0.342 PACF 0.838 -0.036 0.007 -0.101 -0.010 0.101 0.125 0.098 0.026 0.085 95% C.L. 0.135 0.210 0.248 0.271 0.284 0.291 0.296 0.301 0.306 0.312 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.732 0.856 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 539011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00031413 0.37478790 2 539012 1 0.23223399 0.06192430 0.00000000 0.52458829 3 539022 1 0.61073190 0.06217464 0.00000000 0.34398186 4 539041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00286860 0.64721674 5 539051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00144898 0.56900871 6 539052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00092598 0.55061334 7 539061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00179397 0.53401458 8 539062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00044934 0.76450837 9 539071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00133031 0.88304812 10 539072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00258198 0.29829362 11 539082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00178019 0.34963664 12 539091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00079399 0.36178628 13 539092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00198335 0.35988441 14 539101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00123470 0.32659090 15 539102 1 1.10144162 0.08764548 0.00000000 0.41484252 16 539111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00221075 0.83101672 17 539112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00358307 0.89016694 18 539121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00136700 0.91508126 19 539122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00094383 0.83001268 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 539131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00170031 0.41057748 21 539132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00046248 0.55582881 22 539141 1 0.18316087 0.01524024 0.00000000 0.62275839 23 539142 1 0.21093787 0.00918206 0.00000000 0.43103284 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 539011 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.369 0.455 3.154 0.238 0.622 2 539012 1846 1977 132 1.000 0.357 0.348 3.772 0.235 0.671 3 539022 1848 1978 131 1.000 0.425 -0.017 2.793 0.256 0.762 4 539041 1883 1977 95 0.998 0.395 0.926 4.595 0.286 0.555 5 539051 1829 1977 149 0.997 0.470 2.163 9.175 0.206 0.789 6 539052 1823 1977 155 1.000 0.392 0.898 3.666 0.214 0.716 7 539061 1840 1977 138 0.999 0.346 0.384 2.842 0.218 0.724 8 539062 1841 1977 137 1.000 0.340 0.281 3.116 0.205 0.746 9 539071 1855 1977 123 1.000 0.270 0.646 3.024 0.181 0.636 10 539072 1761 1977 217 1.005 0.439 1.651 8.447 0.161 0.834 11 539082 1849 1977 129 0.998 0.422 0.972 3.987 0.214 0.709 12 539091 1790 1977 188 1.002 0.692 1.619 7.150 0.305 0.677 13 539092 1787 1977 191 1.010 0.603 2.338 11.455 0.212 0.819 14 539101 1770 1978 209 1.007 0.532 1.954 8.259 0.194 0.846 15 539102 1761 1978 218 0.999 0.549 0.858 3.253 0.263 0.825 16 539111 1844 1977 134 0.999 0.335 0.846 3.928 0.245 0.559 17 539112 1843 1977 135 0.993 0.445 1.060 3.823 0.280 0.627 18 539121 1853 1977 125 1.000 0.276 0.725 3.951 0.189 0.655 19 539122 1852 1977 126 1.000 0.371 0.696 3.202 0.220 0.734 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 539131 1827 1977 151 0.998 0.307 0.283 3.154 0.213 0.600 21 539132 1840 1977 138 1.000 0.350 0.587 3.551 0.262 0.624 22 539141 1825 1977 153 1.000 0.498 0.282 2.480 0.250 0.832 23 539142 1826 1977 152 1.000 0.386 0.553 3.456 0.227 0.751 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 1.000 0.416 0.892 4.619 0.229 0.709 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.003 0.104 0.640 2.449 0.035 0.090 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 138 1.000 0.392 0.725 3.666 0.220 0.716 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 22 0.001 0.110 0.596 1.136 0.045 0.144 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.993 0.270 -0.017 2.480 0.161 0.555 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 131 0.999 0.348 0.420 3.154 0.209 0.631 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.458 1.016 4.291 0.253 0.775 MAXIMUM VALUE 218 1.010 0.692 2.338 11.455 0.305 0.846 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 539011 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 539012 -67 88 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 539022 -67 87 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 539041 -67 63 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 539051 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 539052 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 539061 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 539062 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 539071 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 539072 -67 145 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 539082 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 539091 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 539092 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 539101 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 539102 -67 146 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 539111 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 539112 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 539121 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 539122 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 539131 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 539132 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 539141 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 539142 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 539011 1833 1978 146 0.989 0.316 0.366 2.649 0.239 0.553 2 539012 1846 1977 132 0.994 0.328 0.137 3.229 0.234 0.627 3 539022 1848 1978 131 0.989 0.393 -0.077 2.679 0.256 0.725 4 539041 1883 1977 95 0.997 0.302 0.304 3.622 0.286 0.279 5 539051 1829 1977 149 0.992 0.363 1.232 5.314 0.206 0.671 6 539052 1823 1977 155 0.989 0.320 0.612 3.172 0.214 0.604 7 539061 1840 1977 138 0.996 0.312 0.050 2.817 0.218 0.666 8 539062 1841 1977 137 0.996 0.324 0.151 2.979 0.205 0.720 9 539071 1855 1977 123 0.998 0.258 0.538 2.904 0.180 0.613 10 539072 1761 1977 217 0.984 0.332 0.674 3.676 0.161 0.803 11 539082 1849 1977 129 0.989 0.352 0.675 4.669 0.213 0.595 12 539091 1790 1977 188 0.977 0.657 4.083 33.098 0.304 0.449 13 539092 1787 1977 191 0.986 0.392 0.589 3.219 0.212 0.779 14 539101 1770 1978 209 0.992 0.377 0.628 2.923 0.194 0.793 15 539102 1761 1978 218 0.990 0.448 0.629 2.885 0.263 0.685 16 539111 1844 1977 134 0.999 0.324 0.908 4.533 0.245 0.521 17 539112 1843 1977 135 0.996 0.393 0.963 3.817 0.281 0.559 18 539121 1853 1977 125 0.998 0.239 0.322 3.306 0.189 0.544 19 539122 1852 1977 126 0.995 0.320 0.631 3.141 0.221 0.670 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 539131 1827 1977 151 0.998 0.288 0.275 3.619 0.213 0.533 21 539132 1840 1977 138 0.996 0.276 0.324 4.087 0.261 0.378 22 539141 1825 1977 153 0.975 0.428 0.113 2.460 0.250 0.791 23 539142 1826 1977 152 0.998 0.379 0.532 3.396 0.227 0.734 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 0.992 0.353 0.637 4.704 0.229 0.621 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.007 0.084 0.814 6.229 0.035 0.135 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 138 0.994 0.328 0.538 3.229 0.221 0.627 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 22 0.007 0.072 0.363 0.833 0.044 0.174 MINIMUM VALUE 95 0.975 0.239 -0.077 2.460 0.161 0.279 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 131 0.989 0.314 0.290 2.913 0.209 0.548 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 154 0.996 0.386 0.653 3.746 0.253 0.722 MAXIMUM VALUE 218 0.999 0.657 4.083 33.098 0.304 0.803 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.409 0.137 0.009 -0.322 3.211 -0.045 0.797 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.045 SERIES 539072 AND 539132 138 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.797 SERIES 539061 AND 539062 137 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1786. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 10. 10. 120. 231. 253. 253. RBAR 0.117 0.215 0.357 0.315 0.426 0.526 0.552 SDEV 0.000 0.286 0.256 0.253 0.206 0.146 0.159 SERR 0.000 0.090 0.081 0.023 0.014 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.331 0.672 0.895 0.908 0.944 0.962 0.966 NSS 3.7 7.5 15.3 21.6 22.7 23.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1761 1978 218 0.978 0.251 0.343 2.829 0.152 0.736 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.407 0.199 0.077 53 165 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.24 0.49 1.01 1.11 1.60 30.82 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.11 0.73 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.732 0.531 0.349 0.187 0.019 -0.048 -0.054 -0.046 -0.050 0.023 PACF 0.732 -0.012 -0.077 -0.085 -0.142 0.057 0.070 0.007 -0.048 0.123 95% C.L. 0.135 0.195 0.220 0.230 0.233 0.233 0.233 0.233 0.233 0.233 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.542 0.736 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.708 0.503 0.372 0.270 0.098 0.065 0.051 -0.014 -0.094 -0.085 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.708 2 0.706 0.004 3 0.705 -0.016 0.028 4 0.706 -0.016 0.033 -0.007 5 0.704 -0.010 0.030 0.132 -0.197 6 0.729 -0.026 0.026 0.133 -0.286 0.127 7 0.728 -0.024 0.025 0.133 -0.286 0.121 0.008 8 0.729 -0.012 -0.004 0.146 -0.283 0.119 0.083 -0.103 9 0.721 -0.006 0.004 0.126 -0.273 0.118 0.082 -0.050 -0.072 10 0.724 -0.004 0.002 0.122 -0.264 0.114 0.082 -0.050 -0.096 0.032 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1800.54 1650.81 1652.80 1654.63 1656.62 1650.01 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1648.48 1650.47 1650.16 1651.01 1652.78 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.708 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 50.15 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 200.58 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.708 0.501 0.355 0.251 0.178 0.126 0.089 0.063 0.045 0.0317 0.022 0.016 0.011 0.008 0.006 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.0010 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 539011 1 0.314 0.560 2 539012 1 0.395 0.629 3 539022 1 0.532 0.727 4 539041 1 0.079 0.281 5 539051 1 0.478 0.688 6 539052 1 0.381 0.617 7 539061 1 0.449 0.668 8 539062 1 0.521 0.721 9 539071 1 0.379 0.614 10 539072 1 0.680 0.823 11 539082 1 0.421 0.643 12 539091 1 0.212 0.452 13 539092 1 0.629 0.793 14 539101 1 0.640 0.799 15 539102 1 0.491 0.685 16 539111 1 0.290 0.530 17 539112 1 0.329 0.560 18 539121 1 0.297 0.545 19 539122 1 0.450 0.671 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 539131 1 0.333 0.553 21 539132 1 0.145 0.379 22 539141 1 0.630 0.794 23 539142 1 0.562 0.749 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.419 0.630 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.159 0.137 MEDIAN 1 0.421 0.643 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.206 0.167 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.079 0.281 LOWER HINGE 1 0.321 0.556 UPPER HINGE 1 0.527 0.724 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.680 0.823 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 539011 1833 1978 146 1.000 0.261 0.356 2.620 0.301 0.002 2 539012 1846 1977 132 1.000 0.255 0.206 3.060 0.303 0.007 3 539022 1848 1978 131 1.000 0.270 -0.063 3.399 0.322 -0.061 4 539041 1883 1977 95 1.000 0.290 0.472 4.233 0.314 0.000 5 539051 1829 1977 149 1.000 0.261 0.658 5.981 0.261 0.041 6 539052 1823 1977 155 1.000 0.251 0.765 4.921 0.270 0.000 7 539061 1840 1977 138 1.000 0.232 0.129 2.384 0.274 -0.046 8 539062 1841 1977 137 1.000 0.225 0.189 3.047 0.259 -0.045 9 539071 1855 1977 123 1.000 0.203 0.455 3.365 0.231 -0.028 10 539072 1761 1977 217 1.000 0.185 0.389 3.312 0.204 -0.097 11 539082 1849 1977 129 1.000 0.262 0.256 4.607 0.288 -0.114 12 539091 1790 1977 188 1.014 0.539 5.181 45.256 0.311 0.146 13 539092 1787 1977 191 1.000 0.236 0.152 3.358 0.278 -0.016 14 539101 1770 1978 209 1.000 0.226 0.166 3.097 0.259 -0.073 15 539102 1761 1978 218 1.000 0.326 0.676 5.249 0.333 -0.135 16 539111 1844 1977 134 1.000 0.273 0.701 3.951 0.295 0.052 17 539112 1843 1977 135 1.000 0.325 0.862 3.966 0.339 0.082 18 539121 1853 1977 125 1.000 0.200 0.235 3.233 0.225 0.012 19 539122 1852 1977 126 1.000 0.238 0.486 2.984 0.277 0.020 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 539131 1827 1977 151 1.000 0.238 0.060 3.305 0.278 -0.126 21 539132 1840 1977 138 1.000 0.256 0.061 3.146 0.300 -0.013 22 539141 1825 1977 153 1.000 0.260 0.240 3.311 0.281 -0.014 23 539142 1826 1977 152 1.000 0.248 -0.031 3.997 0.282 -0.038 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 1.001 0.263 0.548 5.469 0.282 -0.019 STANDARD DEVIATION 32 0.003 0.069 1.043 8.716 0.033 0.066 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 138 1.000 0.255 0.256 3.358 0.281 -0.014 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 22 0.000 0.032 0.413 0.994 0.036 0.063 MINIMUM VALUE 95 1.000 0.185 -0.063 2.384 0.204 -0.135 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 131 1.000 0.234 0.159 3.121 0.266 -0.053 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 154 1.000 0.266 0.572 4.115 0.302 0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 218 1.014 0.539 5.181 45.256 0.339 0.146 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.365 0.105 0.007 -0.013 3.286 0.088 0.715 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.088 SERIES 539072 AND 539091 188 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.715 SERIES 539061 AND 539062 137 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 61.26 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1786. 1820. 1845. 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 1. 10. 10. 120. 231. 253. 253. RBAR 0.368 0.206 0.223 0.310 0.365 0.442 0.464 SDEV 0.000 0.187 0.187 0.133 0.127 0.125 0.152 SERR 0.000 0.059 0.059 0.012 0.008 0.008 0.010 EPS 0.684 0.660 0.815 0.907 0.929 0.948 0.952 NSS 3.7 7.5 15.3 21.6 22.7 23.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1761 1978 218 0.992 0.165 0.238 2.890 0.186 0.024 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.219 0.099 0.088 63 155 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.58 1.00 1.06 1.64 144.46 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.95 0.11 0.65 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.024 0.059 0.077 0.055 -0.112 -0.093 -0.039 0.008 -0.130 0.032 PACF 0.024 0.058 0.075 0.049 -0.124 -0.103 -0.031 0.039 -0.101 0.035 95% C.L. 0.135 0.136 0.136 0.137 0.137 0.139 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.142 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.057 0.075 0.055 -0.111 -0.089 -0.037 0.012 -0.131 0.033 PACF -0.001 0.057 0.075 0.053 -0.121 -0.105 -0.035 0.040 -0.101 0.032 95% C.L. 0.135 0.135 0.136 0.137 0.137 0.139 0.140 0.140 0.140 0.142 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.003 -0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1761 1978 218 0.992 0.241 0.055 2.560 0.144 0.731 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.728 0.543 0.387 0.228 0.060 -0.026 -0.055 -0.065 -0.092 -0.043 PACF 0.728 0.028 -0.038 -0.104 -0.145 0.015 0.051 0.018 -0.067 0.084 95% C.L. 0.135 0.194 0.220 0.233 0.237 0.237 0.237 0.237 0.238 0.238 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.532 0.729 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.26 MINUTES