RUN: OR001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: OR042T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: OR042T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 748 1 Crater Lake, NE-Medford DENSITY_LATE TSME - 748 2 United States of America mountain hemlock 2200 4258-12210 1564 1983 748 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 748061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1801 1801 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 748062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1801 1801 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 748071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1810 1810 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 748081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1953 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 748082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1639 1639 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 748092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 1 GAPS / 1808 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 748101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 68 IN 1 GAPS / 1824 1891 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 748011 1710 1983 274 7.374 0.533 -0.753 3.240 0.047 0.667 2 748012 1738 1983 246 7.071 0.405 -0.245 3.955 0.042 0.530 3 748021 1695 1983 289 6.671 0.533 -0.033 2.410 0.048 0.694 4 748022 1690 1983 294 6.704 0.506 -0.445 2.851 0.054 0.578 5 748031 1687 1983 297 7.004 0.542 0.510 2.972 0.048 0.699 6 748032 1679 1983 305 6.797 0.558 -0.090 3.731 0.055 0.619 7 748041 1720 1983 264 6.857 0.521 -0.178 3.133 0.048 0.655 8 748042 1700 1983 284 7.165 0.615 0.610 3.681 0.055 0.630 9 748051 1564 1983 420 6.740 0.551 -0.484 2.829 0.066 0.462 10 748052 1655 1983 329 6.791 0.742 -0.617 2.875 0.078 0.606 11 748061 1683 1983 301 6.913 0.512 -0.520 3.262 0.060 0.439 12 748062 1711 1983 273 6.900 0.693 -0.262 2.542 0.063 0.666 13 748071 1703 1983 281 6.836 0.405 -0.176 3.104 0.046 0.477 14 748072 1740 1983 244 7.087 0.406 -0.115 3.175 0.050 0.416 15 748081 1646 1982 337 6.225 0.808 -0.195 2.451 0.063 0.809 16 748082 1618 1983 366 6.424 0.768 0.018 3.232 0.055 0.820 17 748091 1566 1983 418 6.397 0.600 -0.617 3.363 0.060 0.671 18 748092 1592 1983 392 6.205 0.635 -0.299 3.209 0.066 0.648 19 748101 1683 1983 301 7.100 0.449 -0.066 3.104 0.049 0.486 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 748102 1668 1983 316 6.436 0.555 -0.393 2.922 0.057 0.659 21 748111 1720 1983 264 6.562 0.560 -0.418 3.092 0.086 0.212 22 748112 1666 1983 318 6.499 0.579 -0.666 3.963 0.074 0.432 23 748121 1802 1983 182 6.602 0.547 0.114 3.982 0.074 0.384 24 748122 1672 1968 297 6.296 0.537 -0.463 4.155 0.064 0.544 25 748132 1668 1983 316 6.567 0.516 -0.104 3.080 0.066 0.401 26 748141 1753 1983 231 6.906 0.476 -0.795 4.378 0.056 0.426 27 748142 1704 1983 280 6.228 0.452 -0.584 3.435 0.070 0.209 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 27 FROM 1564 TO 1983 420 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 297 6.717 0.556 -0.269 3.264 0.059 0.550 STANDARD DEVIATION 54 0.315 0.104 0.342 0.508 0.011 0.156 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 294 6.740 0.542 -0.262 3.175 0.057 0.578 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 49 0.442 0.080 0.405 0.611 0.016 0.228 MINIMUM VALUE 182 6.205 0.405 -0.795 2.410 0.042 0.209 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 268 6.468 0.509 -0.502 2.947 0.050 0.435 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 317 6.910 0.590 -0.097 3.558 0.066 0.663 MAXIMUM VALUE 420 7.374 0.808 0.610 4.378 0.086 0.820 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 351 0.297 0.133 0.007 -0.018 3.159 -0.086 0.671 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.086 SERIES 748022 AND 748042 284 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.671 SERIES 748081 AND 748082 337 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 3. 6. 6. 36. 120. 253. 300. 325. 325. 351. RBAR 0.488 0.342 0.183 0.249 0.256 0.192 0.146 0.251 0.250 0.213 SDEV 0.107 0.204 0.159 0.187 0.257 0.214 0.204 0.211 0.225 0.223 SERR 0.062 0.083 0.065 0.031 0.023 0.013 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.772 0.720 0.667 0.837 0.879 0.854 0.815 0.899 0.899 0.880 NSS 3.5 4.9 9.0 15.5 21.2 24.6 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.0 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 351. 351. 351. 325. RBAR 0.356 0.387 0.373 0.320 SDEV 0.200 0.185 0.158 0.188 SERR 0.011 0.010 0.008 0.010 EPS 0.937 0.945 0.941 0.927 NSS 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1564 1983 420 6.744 0.333 -0.615 4.027 0.041 0.365 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.293 -0.178 1.734 96 324 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.12 0.23 1.00 1.04 1.27 3.29 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 297. 44. 182. 274. 317. 420. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.364 0.380 0.345 0.327 0.303 0.304 0.255 0.246 0.248 0.239 PACF 0.364 0.285 0.179 0.129 0.086 0.089 0.021 0.024 0.046 0.040 95% C.L. 0.098 0.110 0.122 0.131 0.138 0.144 0.150 0.154 0.158 0.162 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.260 0.165 0.180 0.119 0.097 0.076 0.101 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 748011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00333428 7.83269739 2 748012 1 0.35511696 0.00164942 0.00000000 6.77972078 3 748021 1 0.98703045 0.00794693 0.00000000 6.28596830 4 748022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00025510 6.74167490 5 748031 1 1.38931859 0.01608218 0.00000000 6.71832037 6 748032 1 1.52288938 0.04546656 0.00000000 6.68941545 7 748041 1 1.41349924 0.00800143 0.00000000 6.27131844 8 748042 1 1.98699641 0.03931013 0.00000000 6.99057150 9 748051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00100228 6.95074224 10 748052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00475210 7.57494831 11 748061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007564 6.89510489 12 748062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00132283 7.07462072 13 748071 1 0.81604987 0.01681013 0.00000000 6.66539478 14 748072 1 0.81800151 0.01352963 0.00000000 6.85042572 15 748081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00629299 7.28199816 16 748082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00564485 7.46288490 17 748091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00314205 7.05486155 18 748092 1 5.80175304 0.00052168 0.00000000 0.92702115 19 748101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036093 7.18919516 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 748102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00074770 6.55408096 21 748111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00060496 6.64235401 22 748112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00237077 6.87763500 23 748121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00224512 6.80762625 24 748122 1 0.96208513 0.00733406 0.00000000 5.90603399 25 748132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00018186 6.59600830 26 748141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00053193 6.96750498 27 748142 1 0.57187593 0.00552656 0.00000000 5.93841028 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 748011 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.064 -0.201 2.725 0.047 0.564 2 748012 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.057 -0.199 4.091 0.042 0.524 3 748021 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.071 0.072 3.098 0.048 0.616 4 748022 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.075 -0.478 2.930 0.054 0.575 5 748031 1687 1983 297 1.000 0.061 0.534 3.874 0.048 0.510 6 748032 1679 1983 305 1.000 0.073 -0.464 3.503 0.055 0.518 7 748041 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.058 -0.357 4.324 0.048 0.389 8 748042 1700 1983 284 1.000 0.068 0.043 3.707 0.055 0.387 9 748051 1564 1983 420 1.000 0.080 -0.487 2.899 0.066 0.435 10 748052 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.088 -0.442 3.702 0.078 0.359 11 748061 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.076 -0.669 3.769 0.060 0.462 12 748062 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.100 -0.277 2.510 0.065 0.627 13 748071 1703 1983 281 1.000 0.051 -0.492 3.358 0.046 0.326 14 748072 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.049 -0.460 3.083 0.050 0.210 15 748081 1646 1982 337 1.000 0.087 0.003 2.863 0.063 0.572 16 748082 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.077 0.246 2.880 0.055 0.562 17 748091 1566 1983 418 1.000 0.074 -0.200 3.260 0.060 0.466 18 748092 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.093 -0.178 4.083 0.066 0.581 19 748101 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.062 -0.245 3.095 0.049 0.468 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 748102 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.086 -0.346 2.886 0.057 0.651 21 748111 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.085 -0.396 3.155 0.086 0.207 22 748112 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.083 -0.689 5.003 0.073 0.328 23 748121 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.080 -0.145 3.755 0.073 0.350 24 748122 1672 1968 297 1.000 0.077 -0.549 4.857 0.063 0.432 25 748132 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.079 -0.101 3.091 0.066 0.398 26 748141 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.069 -0.792 4.392 0.056 0.421 27 748142 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.070 -0.692 3.439 0.070 0.134 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 301 1.000 0.074 -0.295 3.494 0.059 0.447 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.000 0.013 0.303 0.648 0.011 0.134 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 297 1.000 0.075 -0.346 3.358 0.057 0.462 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 43 0.000 0.016 0.321 0.815 0.016 0.190 MINIMUM VALUE 182 1.000 0.049 -0.792 2.510 0.042 0.134 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.066 -0.483 3.007 0.049 0.373 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 317 1.000 0.082 -0.162 3.822 0.066 0.563 MAXIMUM VALUE 420 1.000 0.100 0.534 5.003 0.086 0.651 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 748011 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 748012 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 748021 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 748022 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 748031 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 748032 -67 204 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 748041 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 748042 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 748051 -67 281 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 748052 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 748061 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 748062 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 748071 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 748072 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 748081 -67 225 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 748082 -67 245 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 748091 -67 280 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 748092 -67 262 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 748101 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 748102 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 748111 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 748112 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 748121 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 748122 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 748132 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 748141 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 748142 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 748011 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.055 -0.190 3.017 0.047 0.415 2 748012 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.055 -0.241 4.015 0.042 0.476 3 748021 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.070 0.001 3.167 0.048 0.597 4 748022 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.068 -0.239 2.901 0.054 0.481 5 748031 1687 1983 297 1.000 0.058 0.379 3.940 0.048 0.459 6 748032 1679 1983 305 1.000 0.067 -0.563 3.758 0.055 0.424 7 748041 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.057 -0.346 4.379 0.048 0.386 8 748042 1700 1983 284 1.000 0.066 0.033 3.990 0.055 0.338 9 748051 1564 1983 420 1.000 0.077 -0.373 2.817 0.066 0.391 10 748052 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.081 -0.369 4.651 0.078 0.253 11 748061 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.074 -0.705 3.831 0.060 0.435 12 748062 1711 1983 273 0.999 0.080 -0.392 3.230 0.065 0.438 13 748071 1703 1983 281 1.000 0.051 -0.474 3.337 0.046 0.312 14 748072 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.048 -0.448 3.111 0.050 0.185 15 748081 1646 1982 337 1.000 0.083 0.054 2.794 0.063 0.528 16 748082 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.072 0.166 3.094 0.055 0.498 17 748091 1566 1983 418 1.000 0.069 -0.121 3.439 0.060 0.370 18 748092 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.091 -0.103 4.131 0.066 0.555 19 748101 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.060 -0.286 3.193 0.049 0.434 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 748102 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.071 -0.325 3.104 0.057 0.492 21 748111 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.081 -0.506 3.628 0.086 0.126 22 748112 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.081 -0.663 5.159 0.073 0.297 23 748121 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.077 -0.293 3.869 0.073 0.291 24 748122 1672 1968 297 1.000 0.076 -0.594 4.996 0.063 0.415 25 748132 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.073 -0.208 3.513 0.066 0.315 26 748141 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.067 -0.796 4.822 0.056 0.388 27 748142 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.069 -0.700 3.453 0.070 0.114 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 301 1.000 0.069 -0.307 3.679 0.059 0.386 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.000 0.011 0.282 0.672 0.011 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 297 1.000 0.070 -0.325 3.513 0.057 0.415 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 43 0.000 0.014 0.334 0.863 0.016 0.154 MINIMUM VALUE 182 0.999 0.048 -0.796 2.794 0.042 0.114 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.063 -0.490 3.139 0.049 0.314 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 317 1.000 0.077 -0.156 4.003 0.066 0.467 MAXIMUM VALUE 420 1.000 0.091 0.379 5.159 0.086 0.597 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 351 0.251 0.105 0.006 0.041 3.624 -0.137 0.591 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.137 SERIES 748021 AND 748122 274 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.591 SERIES 748111 AND 748112 264 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 3. 6. 6. 36. 120. 253. 300. 325. 325. 351. RBAR 0.526 0.266 0.154 0.231 0.274 0.196 0.153 0.248 0.262 0.219 SDEV 0.080 0.244 0.162 0.202 0.224 0.204 0.197 0.201 0.224 0.215 SERR 0.046 0.099 0.066 0.034 0.020 0.013 0.011 0.011 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.797 0.642 0.620 0.823 0.889 0.857 0.823 0.897 0.905 0.883 NSS 3.5 4.9 9.0 15.5 21.2 24.6 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.0 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 351. 351. 351. 325. RBAR 0.344 0.385 0.377 0.335 SDEV 0.197 0.178 0.147 0.169 SERR 0.011 0.010 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.934 0.944 0.942 0.931 NSS 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1564 1983 420 1.000 0.042 -0.901 4.528 0.042 0.128 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.195 -0.101 0.157 109 311 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.33 1.00 1.06 1.38 63.53 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.127 0.146 0.084 0.076 0.043 0.040 -0.013 -0.044 -0.019 -0.020 PACF 0.127 0.132 0.053 0.044 0.013 0.015 -0.034 -0.055 -0.010 -0.006 95% C.L. 0.098 0.099 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.036 0.111 0.132 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.138 0.129 0.081 0.032 0.008 0.001 -0.011 -0.087 -0.033 -0.069 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.138 2 0.123 0.112 3 0.117 0.106 0.051 4 0.117 0.105 0.051 0.003 5 0.117 0.106 0.052 0.004 -0.012 6 0.117 0.106 0.052 0.005 -0.011 -0.007 7 0.117 0.106 0.052 0.005 -0.010 -0.005 -0.012 8 0.116 0.105 0.051 0.006 -0.005 0.004 -0.002 -0.086 9 0.115 0.105 0.051 0.006 -0.005 0.004 -0.001 -0.085 -0.010 10 0.114 0.102 0.051 0.006 -0.005 0.005 0.002 -0.080 -0.005 -0.045 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2360.64 2354.54 2351.26 2352.17 2354.17 2356.11 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2358.09 2360.03 2358.92 2360.87 2362.03 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.123 0.112 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.14 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.24 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.123 0.127 0.029 0.018 0.005 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 748011 2 0.194 0.355 0.150 2 748012 2 0.246 0.424 0.115 3 748021 2 0.390 0.470 0.217 4 748022 2 0.263 0.386 0.199 5 748031 2 0.221 0.410 0.107 6 748032 2 0.203 0.372 0.124 7 748041 2 0.154 0.358 0.074 8 748042 2 0.154 0.278 0.187 9 748051 2 0.215 0.304 0.228 10 748052 2 0.086 0.232 0.096 11 748061 2 0.221 0.362 0.176 12 748062 2 0.262 0.313 0.289 13 748071 2 0.131 0.267 0.146 14 748072 2 0.099 0.153 0.174 15 748081 2 0.306 0.431 0.186 16 748082 2 0.282 0.412 0.182 17 748091 2 0.151 0.323 0.128 18 748092 2 0.361 0.418 0.248 19 748101 2 0.215 0.368 0.159 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 748102 2 0.286 0.406 0.175 21 748111 2 0.030 0.111 0.119 22 748112 2 0.131 0.239 0.197 23 748121 2 0.126 0.251 0.140 24 748122 2 0.253 0.289 0.305 25 748132 2 0.151 0.241 0.236 26 748141 2 0.201 0.331 0.148 27 748142 2 0.038 0.104 0.103 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.199 0.319 0.171 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.089 0.097 0.057 MEDIAN 2 0.203 0.331 0.174 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.117 0.137 0.072 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.030 0.104 0.074 LOWER HINGE 2 0.141 0.259 0.126 UPPER HINGE 2 0.257 0.396 0.198 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.390 0.470 0.305 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 748011 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.049 -0.120 3.212 0.054 -0.007 2 748012 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.047 -0.291 4.880 0.052 -0.013 3 748021 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.054 0.021 4.317 0.058 0.006 4 748022 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.058 -0.152 3.572 0.065 0.004 5 748031 1687 1983 297 1.000 0.051 0.102 3.192 0.058 -0.005 6 748032 1679 1983 305 1.000 0.060 -0.456 4.005 0.065 -0.014 7 748041 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.053 -0.379 4.739 0.055 -0.001 8 748042 1700 1983 284 1.000 0.060 -0.021 5.616 0.063 -0.018 9 748051 1564 1983 420 1.000 0.069 -0.358 3.202 0.076 -0.029 10 748052 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.078 -0.354 4.853 0.086 -0.012 11 748061 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.066 -0.586 4.190 0.072 -0.015 12 748062 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.069 0.106 4.480 0.075 -0.010 13 748071 1703 1983 281 1.000 0.048 -0.340 3.329 0.053 -0.019 14 748072 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.047 -0.393 3.164 0.054 -0.034 15 748081 1646 1982 337 1.000 0.069 -0.072 3.026 0.076 -0.007 16 748082 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.061 0.065 3.254 0.067 -0.013 17 748091 1566 1983 418 1.000 0.063 -0.080 3.633 0.070 -0.001 18 748092 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.073 -0.064 4.222 0.080 -0.027 19 748101 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.053 -0.445 3.518 0.059 -0.013 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 748102 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.061 -0.082 3.126 0.069 -0.028 21 748111 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.080 -0.590 3.632 0.090 -0.003 22 748112 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.076 -0.637 4.371 0.082 -0.016 23 748121 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.073 -0.237 3.813 0.081 -0.023 24 748122 1672 1968 297 1.000 0.066 -0.605 4.301 0.073 -0.018 25 748132 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.068 -0.140 3.913 0.074 -0.006 26 748141 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.061 -1.120 6.129 0.067 -0.029 27 748142 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.068 -0.811 3.744 0.074 -0.012 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 301 1.000 0.062 -0.298 3.979 0.068 -0.013 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.000 0.010 0.297 0.783 0.011 0.010 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 297 1.000 0.061 -0.291 3.813 0.069 -0.013 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 43 0.000 0.015 0.375 1.053 0.017 0.012 MINIMUM VALUE 182 1.000 0.047 -1.120 3.026 0.052 -0.034 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.054 -0.450 3.292 0.058 -0.019 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 317 1.000 0.069 -0.076 4.344 0.075 -0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 420 1.000 0.080 0.106 6.129 0.090 0.006 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 351 0.318 0.098 0.005 0.253 3.268 0.072 0.667 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.072 SERIES 748021 AND 748121 182 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.667 SERIES 748111 AND 748112 264 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 3. 6. 6. 36. 120. 253. 300. 325. 325. 351. RBAR 0.569 0.218 0.230 0.351 0.316 0.254 0.218 0.278 0.297 0.275 SDEV 0.110 0.299 0.191 0.146 0.212 0.185 0.156 0.160 0.183 0.188 SERR 0.064 0.122 0.078 0.024 0.019 0.012 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.824 0.579 0.728 0.893 0.907 0.893 0.878 0.910 0.919 0.911 NSS 3.5 4.9 9.0 15.5 21.2 24.6 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.0 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 351. 351. 351. 325. RBAR 0.414 0.451 0.439 0.377 SDEV 0.176 0.156 0.124 0.146 SERR 0.009 0.008 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.950 0.957 0.955 0.942 NSS 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1564 1983 420 1.000 0.041 -0.782 4.560 0.047 -0.176 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.250 -0.127 0.175 125 295 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.35 1.00 1.05 1.40 8.01 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.175 -0.097 0.020 0.011 0.008 0.025 -0.003 -0.034 -0.019 -0.037 PACF -0.175 -0.132 -0.023 -0.003 0.011 0.032 0.011 -0.028 -0.032 -0.058 95% C.L. 0.098 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.048 -0.199 -0.132 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 -0.005 -0.021 0.009 0.020 0.025 -0.008 -0.045 -0.024 -0.025 PACF -0.003 -0.005 -0.021 0.008 0.020 0.024 -0.007 -0.045 -0.024 -0.027 95% C.L. 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 -0.003 -0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1564 1983 420 1.000 0.041 -0.868 4.592 0.040 0.132 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.132 0.123 0.014 0.028 0.025 0.022 -0.010 -0.046 -0.023 -0.021 PACF 0.132 0.107 -0.016 0.016 0.020 0.013 -0.019 -0.048 -0.009 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.098 0.099 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 0.101 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.029 0.118 0.107 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.40 MINUTES