RUN: OR001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: OR042W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: OR042W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 748 1 Crater Lake, NE-Medford WIDTH_RING TSME - 748 2 United States of America mountain hemlock 2200 4258-12210 1564 1983 748 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 748061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1801 1801 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 748062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1801 1801 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 748071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1810 1810 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 748081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1953 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 748082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1639 1639 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 748092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 1 GAPS / 1808 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 748101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 68 IN 1 GAPS / 1824 1891 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 748011 1710 1983 274 0.817 0.393 0.872 3.467 0.321 0.623 2 748012 1738 1983 246 0.846 0.455 1.266 4.733 0.279 0.687 3 748021 1695 1983 289 0.773 0.369 0.908 4.233 0.264 0.709 4 748022 1690 1983 294 0.691 0.294 1.028 4.288 0.276 0.626 5 748031 1687 1983 297 1.038 0.395 0.847 4.053 0.270 0.580 6 748032 1679 1983 305 1.043 0.422 0.702 3.727 0.275 0.607 7 748041 1720 1983 264 1.026 0.420 0.520 2.931 0.226 0.719 8 748042 1700 1983 284 0.749 0.226 0.477 3.515 0.229 0.582 9 748051 1564 1983 420 0.751 0.327 0.584 3.217 0.337 0.486 10 748052 1655 1983 329 0.982 0.472 1.025 3.860 0.285 0.674 11 748061 1683 1983 301 0.691 0.265 0.704 3.907 0.268 0.652 12 748062 1711 1983 273 0.481 0.195 0.902 4.379 0.285 0.638 13 748071 1703 1983 281 0.686 0.212 0.336 2.958 0.240 0.552 14 748072 1740 1983 244 0.771 0.250 0.406 2.764 0.225 0.600 15 748081 1646 1982 337 0.728 0.333 0.702 3.628 0.345 0.516 16 748082 1618 1983 366 0.796 0.368 0.688 3.498 0.344 0.584 17 748091 1566 1983 418 0.769 0.400 0.661 3.940 0.294 0.742 18 748092 1592 1983 392 0.750 0.401 1.234 5.132 0.343 0.640 19 748101 1683 1983 301 0.821 0.353 0.042 2.374 0.321 0.634 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 748102 1668 1983 316 0.601 0.275 1.081 5.542 0.323 0.554 21 748111 1720 1983 264 0.908 0.394 0.535 2.680 0.299 0.606 22 748112 1666 1983 318 0.878 0.379 0.140 2.264 0.366 0.524 23 748121 1802 1983 182 0.808 0.316 0.483 3.394 0.350 0.375 24 748122 1672 1968 297 1.000 0.332 0.329 3.340 0.293 0.421 25 748132 1668 1983 316 0.576 0.250 0.588 2.768 0.263 0.726 26 748141 1753 1983 231 1.335 0.395 0.252 2.962 0.251 0.437 27 748142 1704 1983 280 1.060 0.393 0.369 2.753 0.270 0.588 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 27 FROM 1564 TO 1983 420 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 297 0.829 0.344 0.655 3.567 0.290 0.596 STANDARD DEVIATION 54 0.179 0.075 0.319 0.812 0.041 0.093 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 294 0.796 0.368 0.661 3.498 0.285 0.606 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 49 0.206 0.111 0.446 1.052 0.057 0.093 MINIMUM VALUE 182 0.481 0.195 0.042 2.264 0.225 0.375 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 268 0.739 0.284 0.442 2.945 0.266 0.553 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 317 0.945 0.395 0.887 3.996 0.322 0.646 MAXIMUM VALUE 420 1.335 0.472 1.266 5.542 0.366 0.742 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 351 0.421 0.234 0.012 -0.595 2.597 -0.153 0.837 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.153 SERIES 748041 AND 748061 264 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.837 SERIES 748111 AND 748112 264 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 3. 6. 6. 36. 120. 253. 300. 325. 325. 351. RBAR 0.601 0.514 0.568 0.573 0.551 0.553 0.596 0.601 0.458 0.457 SDEV 0.214 0.177 0.099 0.179 0.191 0.151 0.122 0.192 0.195 0.169 SERR 0.123 0.072 0.040 0.030 0.017 0.009 0.007 0.011 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.842 0.839 0.922 0.954 0.963 0.968 0.974 0.975 0.958 0.958 NSS 3.5 4.9 9.0 15.5 21.2 24.6 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.0 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 351. 351. 351. 325. RBAR 0.446 0.445 0.492 0.410 SDEV 0.179 0.198 0.222 0.262 SERR 0.010 0.011 0.012 0.015 EPS 0.956 0.956 0.963 0.949 NSS 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1564 1983 420 0.866 0.282 0.682 3.880 0.243 0.487 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.510 0.244 0.095 134 286 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.54 1.00 1.08 1.62 5.75 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 297. 44. 182. 274. 317. 420. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.485 0.457 0.443 0.443 0.425 0.417 0.410 0.337 0.352 0.374 PACF 0.485 0.290 0.207 0.173 0.120 0.101 0.084 -0.033 0.032 0.078 95% C.L. 0.098 0.118 0.134 0.147 0.160 0.170 0.180 0.188 0.194 0.200 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 7 0.381 0.199 0.142 0.112 0.122 0.087 0.085 0.086 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 748011 1 0.98024571 0.00711044 0.00000000 0.38744059 2 748012 1 1.38329816 0.00552877 0.00000000 0.09257226 3 748021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00240841 1.12181449 4 748022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00157934 0.92356551 5 748031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00065845 1.13635790 6 748032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027516 1.08465707 7 748041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00398972 1.55488849 8 748042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00012117 0.76617527 9 748051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00097465 0.95597422 10 748052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00340594 1.54398620 11 748061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00122388 0.50430030 12 748062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00093379 0.35221991 13 748071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00078342 0.79457903 14 748072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00225268 1.04730618 15 748081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00088843 0.87635022 16 748082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00058157 0.90512657 17 748091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00239611 1.27062130 18 748092 1 1.24571729 0.01248892 0.00000000 0.47888163 19 748101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00181742 0.51430869 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 748102 1 0.18510394 0.02934181 0.00000000 0.58134288 21 748111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00337557 1.35529351 22 748112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00256569 1.28690040 23 748121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00087844 0.88806993 24 748122 1 0.27978930 0.00888688 0.00000000 0.90152973 25 748132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00197879 0.88965160 26 748141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00154805 1.51498544 27 748142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00289977 1.46738172 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 748011 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.370 0.294 2.826 0.320 0.432 2 748012 1738 1983 246 1.001 0.374 0.616 3.661 0.278 0.491 3 748021 1695 1983 289 0.997 0.354 0.054 3.538 0.263 0.586 4 748022 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.345 0.333 3.543 0.275 0.500 5 748031 1687 1983 297 1.000 0.371 0.782 4.095 0.269 0.560 6 748032 1679 1983 305 1.000 0.403 0.689 3.711 0.274 0.603 7 748041 1720 1983 264 0.997 0.269 0.979 8.949 0.225 0.408 8 748042 1700 1983 284 1.000 0.301 0.445 3.531 0.228 0.577 9 748051 1564 1983 420 0.998 0.399 0.461 3.086 0.336 0.445 10 748052 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.312 0.406 3.298 0.284 0.370 11 748061 1683 1983 301 1.002 0.368 0.783 4.148 0.270 0.602 12 748062 1711 1983 273 1.004 0.387 0.670 3.570 0.285 0.568 13 748071 1703 1983 281 1.000 0.295 0.305 3.297 0.241 0.512 14 748072 1740 1983 244 0.999 0.239 -0.088 3.219 0.224 0.312 15 748081 1646 1982 337 0.998 0.445 0.703 3.697 0.347 0.519 16 748082 1618 1983 366 0.999 0.462 0.775 3.590 0.343 0.579 17 748091 1566 1983 418 0.997 0.391 0.869 4.430 0.293 0.529 18 748092 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.398 0.554 3.861 0.341 0.371 19 748101 1683 1983 301 1.002 0.394 0.306 2.852 0.329 0.472 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 748102 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.457 1.177 6.056 0.322 0.546 21 748111 1720 1983 264 0.999 0.337 0.794 4.236 0.298 0.351 22 748112 1666 1983 318 0.997 0.351 0.174 3.428 0.365 0.204 23 748121 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.381 0.339 3.244 0.348 0.340 24 748122 1672 1968 297 1.000 0.321 0.248 3.491 0.292 0.381 25 748132 1668 1983 316 0.999 0.280 -0.111 3.077 0.262 0.408 26 748141 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.285 0.249 3.398 0.250 0.386 27 748142 1704 1983 280 0.997 0.285 0.106 3.057 0.269 0.339 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 301 0.999 0.355 0.478 3.811 0.290 0.459 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.002 0.058 0.325 1.204 0.041 0.106 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 297 1.000 0.368 0.445 3.538 0.284 0.472 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 43 0.001 0.086 0.468 0.515 0.059 0.177 MINIMUM VALUE 182 0.997 0.239 -0.111 2.826 0.224 0.204 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 273 0.999 0.306 0.271 3.271 0.266 0.376 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 317 1.000 0.392 0.739 3.786 0.325 0.553 MAXIMUM VALUE 420 1.004 0.462 1.177 8.949 0.365 0.603 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 748011 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 748012 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 748021 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 748022 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 748031 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 748032 -67 204 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 748041 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 748042 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 748051 -67 281 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 748052 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 748061 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 748062 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 748071 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 748072 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 748081 -67 225 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 748082 -67 245 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 748091 -67 280 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 748092 -67 262 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 748101 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 748102 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 748111 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 748112 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 748121 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 748122 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 748132 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 748141 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 748142 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 748011 1710 1983 274 0.997 0.352 0.196 3.037 0.319 0.388 2 748012 1738 1983 246 0.998 0.362 0.480 3.481 0.278 0.465 3 748021 1695 1983 289 0.996 0.342 0.021 3.489 0.263 0.553 4 748022 1690 1983 294 0.998 0.337 0.300 3.606 0.275 0.477 5 748031 1687 1983 297 0.998 0.343 0.768 3.827 0.269 0.503 6 748032 1679 1983 305 0.992 0.342 0.611 3.866 0.274 0.499 7 748041 1720 1983 264 0.999 0.260 0.724 7.637 0.225 0.376 8 748042 1700 1983 284 0.998 0.264 0.226 3.397 0.228 0.452 9 748051 1564 1983 420 0.996 0.379 0.314 2.977 0.336 0.397 10 748052 1655 1983 329 0.999 0.309 0.397 3.335 0.284 0.362 11 748061 1683 1983 301 0.994 0.317 0.354 3.472 0.270 0.470 12 748062 1711 1983 273 0.996 0.315 0.266 3.230 0.285 0.378 13 748071 1703 1983 281 0.997 0.276 0.085 3.061 0.242 0.435 14 748072 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.236 -0.115 3.192 0.224 0.298 15 748081 1646 1982 337 0.997 0.395 0.560 3.780 0.346 0.385 16 748082 1618 1983 366 0.994 0.370 0.519 3.886 0.343 0.346 17 748091 1566 1983 418 0.993 0.357 0.632 3.944 0.293 0.471 18 748092 1592 1983 392 0.993 0.368 0.375 3.726 0.341 0.306 19 748101 1683 1983 301 0.996 0.374 0.276 2.996 0.329 0.413 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 748102 1668 1983 316 0.994 0.422 1.161 5.744 0.322 0.446 21 748111 1720 1983 264 0.997 0.318 0.634 4.072 0.298 0.299 22 748112 1666 1983 318 0.998 0.347 0.234 3.944 0.365 0.169 23 748121 1802 1983 182 0.996 0.362 0.224 2.972 0.348 0.301 24 748122 1672 1968 297 0.999 0.315 0.184 3.404 0.293 0.349 25 748132 1668 1983 316 0.999 0.277 -0.076 3.186 0.262 0.387 26 748141 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.284 0.332 3.727 0.250 0.386 27 748142 1704 1983 280 0.999 0.274 0.106 3.372 0.269 0.274 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 301 0.997 0.329 0.363 3.717 0.290 0.392 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.002 0.046 0.280 0.955 0.041 0.085 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 297 0.997 0.342 0.314 3.481 0.284 0.387 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 43 0.003 0.065 0.329 0.636 0.059 0.112 MINIMUM VALUE 182 0.992 0.236 -0.115 2.972 0.224 0.169 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 273 0.996 0.297 0.210 3.211 0.266 0.347 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 317 0.999 0.362 0.540 3.847 0.325 0.459 MAXIMUM VALUE 420 1.000 0.422 1.161 7.637 0.365 0.553 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 351 0.463 0.098 0.005 -0.192 3.571 0.173 0.781 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.173 SERIES 748042 AND 748102 284 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.781 SERIES 748071 AND 748072 244 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 3. 6. 6. 36. 120. 253. 300. 325. 325. 351. RBAR 0.666 0.522 0.511 0.556 0.581 0.567 0.621 0.591 0.473 0.475 SDEV 0.120 0.176 0.099 0.193 0.168 0.129 0.115 0.170 0.195 0.160 SERR 0.069 0.072 0.040 0.032 0.015 0.008 0.007 0.009 0.011 0.009 EPS 0.876 0.844 0.903 0.951 0.967 0.970 0.977 0.974 0.960 0.961 NSS 3.5 4.9 9.0 15.5 21.2 24.6 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.0 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 351. 351. 351. 325. RBAR 0.449 0.487 0.509 0.411 SDEV 0.179 0.175 0.163 0.214 SERR 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.012 EPS 0.956 0.962 0.965 0.950 NSS 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1564 1983 420 0.987 0.244 -0.065 2.974 0.251 0.175 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.242 0.095 0.123 126 294 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.67 1.01 1.08 1.75 47.10 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.10 0.00 0.90 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.175 0.142 0.116 0.139 0.109 0.076 0.082 -0.004 0.065 0.082 PACF 0.175 0.115 0.078 0.098 0.056 0.021 0.036 -0.057 0.041 0.055 95% C.L. 0.098 0.101 0.102 0.104 0.105 0.106 0.107 0.108 0.108 0.108 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.062 0.138 0.096 0.063 0.099 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.206 0.202 0.139 0.162 0.111 0.049 0.056 0.030 0.112 0.073 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.206 2 0.171 0.166 3 0.159 0.153 0.075 4 0.151 0.138 0.059 0.101 5 0.148 0.136 0.054 0.095 0.038 6 0.149 0.138 0.055 0.099 0.042 -0.026 7 0.149 0.138 0.054 0.098 0.041 -0.027 0.008 8 0.149 0.138 0.055 0.099 0.041 -0.026 0.009 -0.010 9 0.150 0.137 0.057 0.095 0.032 -0.030 -0.003 -0.023 0.091 10 0.147 0.138 0.057 0.096 0.031 -0.034 -0.005 -0.028 0.086 0.036 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3889.41 3873.25 3863.46 3863.10 3860.81 3862.20 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3863.93 3865.90 3867.86 3866.38 3867.85 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.151 0.138 0.059 0.101 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.35 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 109.11 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.151 0.161 0.104 0.148 0.062 0.052 0.036 0.031 0.019 0.0145 0.010 0.008 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.0006 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 748011 4 0.200 0.283 0.201 0.077 0.006 2 748012 4 0.333 0.259 0.319 0.170 -0.057 3 748021 4 0.357 0.420 0.272 -0.032 -0.001 4 748022 4 0.291 0.334 0.209 0.025 0.105 5 748031 4 0.293 0.396 0.162 -0.004 0.098 6 748032 4 0.290 0.387 0.135 0.035 0.106 7 748041 4 0.179 0.310 0.150 0.056 -0.030 8 748042 4 0.220 0.427 0.039 0.032 0.010 9 748051 4 0.197 0.323 0.059 0.114 0.093 10 748052 4 0.154 0.323 0.057 0.086 0.012 11 748061 4 0.277 0.385 0.210 -0.093 0.125 12 748062 4 0.196 0.299 0.219 -0.050 0.085 13 748071 4 0.225 0.370 0.163 -0.061 0.096 14 748072 4 0.103 0.283 0.089 -0.074 0.046 15 748081 4 0.194 0.284 0.146 0.111 0.042 16 748082 4 0.195 0.224 0.183 0.077 0.128 17 748091 4 0.270 0.345 0.187 0.037 0.079 18 748092 4 0.198 0.174 0.205 0.094 0.146 19 748101 4 0.200 0.330 0.143 0.080 -0.004 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 748102 4 0.283 0.284 0.268 0.064 0.046 21 748111 4 0.110 0.267 0.090 -0.009 0.093 22 748112 4 0.068 0.156 0.069 -0.027 0.176 23 748121 4 0.104 0.276 0.053 0.024 0.073 24 748122 4 0.162 0.286 0.107 0.034 0.107 25 748132 4 0.207 0.276 0.135 0.099 0.108 26 748141 4 0.162 0.366 0.027 0.045 0.036 27 748142 4 0.082 0.263 0.047 -0.005 0.027 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.205 0.308 0.146 0.034 0.065 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.076 0.067 0.078 0.064 0.057 MEDIAN 4 0.198 0.299 0.146 0.035 0.079 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.112 0.079 0.124 0.086 0.086 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.068 0.156 0.027 -0.093 -0.057 LOWER HINGE 4 0.162 0.276 0.079 -0.007 0.020 UPPER HINGE 4 0.273 0.355 0.203 0.079 0.105 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.357 0.427 0.319 0.170 0.176 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 748011 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.314 -0.118 3.166 0.360 0.001 2 748012 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.295 0.121 3.763 0.315 0.005 3 748021 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.275 0.015 4.208 0.300 -0.002 4 748022 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.284 0.169 3.983 0.324 -0.006 5 748031 1687 1983 297 1.000 0.289 0.390 3.545 0.326 -0.009 6 748032 1679 1983 305 1.000 0.288 0.251 4.123 0.324 -0.009 7 748041 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.237 0.663 7.894 0.257 -0.004 8 748042 1700 1983 284 1.000 0.234 0.148 3.565 0.264 0.000 9 748051 1564 1983 420 1.000 0.340 0.151 3.385 0.382 -0.003 10 748052 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.286 0.124 3.251 0.328 0.003 11 748061 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.269 0.263 3.862 0.307 -0.001 12 748062 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.282 0.313 3.528 0.320 0.001 13 748071 1703 1983 281 1.000 0.243 -0.072 3.189 0.275 -0.005 14 748072 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.224 -0.057 3.659 0.253 -0.003 15 748081 1646 1982 337 1.000 0.354 0.579 4.821 0.384 -0.004 16 748082 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.332 0.560 4.679 0.377 -0.007 17 748091 1566 1983 418 1.000 0.305 0.452 4.027 0.332 0.000 18 748092 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.332 0.430 4.659 0.372 -0.016 19 748101 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.334 0.123 3.471 0.380 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 748102 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.357 0.979 7.350 0.368 -0.003 21 748111 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.301 0.658 4.572 0.334 -0.005 22 748112 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.335 0.272 3.986 0.377 -0.006 23 748121 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.343 0.193 2.944 0.385 0.001 24 748122 1672 1968 297 1.000 0.289 0.136 3.336 0.326 -0.012 25 748132 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.246 -0.229 3.216 0.293 -0.001 26 748141 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.260 0.444 3.839 0.288 0.003 27 748142 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.262 0.105 3.345 0.302 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 301 1.000 0.293 0.262 4.051 0.328 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.000 0.039 0.273 1.148 0.041 0.005 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 297 1.000 0.289 0.193 3.763 0.326 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 43 0.000 0.066 0.315 0.800 0.069 0.006 MINIMUM VALUE 182 1.000 0.224 -0.229 2.944 0.253 -0.016 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.266 0.122 3.365 0.301 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 317 1.000 0.332 0.437 4.165 0.370 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 420 1.000 0.357 0.979 7.894 0.385 0.005 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 351 0.548 0.075 0.004 -0.024 3.427 0.322 0.829 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.322 SERIES 748091 AND 748141 231 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.829 SERIES 748071 AND 748072 244 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 3. 6. 6. 36. 120. 253. 300. 325. 325. 351. RBAR 0.778 0.596 0.666 0.632 0.642 0.618 0.630 0.612 0.534 0.573 SDEV 0.023 0.198 0.054 0.132 0.126 0.090 0.082 0.113 0.129 0.119 SERR 0.013 0.081 0.022 0.022 0.012 0.006 0.005 0.006 0.007 0.006 EPS 0.926 0.879 0.947 0.964 0.974 0.975 0.978 0.977 0.969 0.973 NSS 3.5 4.9 9.0 15.5 21.2 24.6 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.0 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 351. 351. 351. 325. RBAR 0.580 0.608 0.602 0.459 SDEV 0.126 0.114 0.113 0.153 SERR 0.007 0.006 0.006 0.008 EPS 0.974 0.977 0.976 0.958 NSS 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1564 1983 420 0.996 0.236 -0.231 3.159 0.285 -0.151 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.178 0.062 0.118 134 286 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.25 0.47 1.00 1.09 1.56 30.49 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.150 -0.066 -0.012 -0.013 0.030 0.004 0.032 -0.071 0.033 0.081 PACF -0.150 -0.091 -0.038 -0.027 0.021 0.009 0.039 -0.059 0.019 0.082 95% C.L. 0.098 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.101 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.033 -0.165 -0.093 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.024 0.008 0.031 -0.054 0.036 0.077 PACF 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.024 0.008 0.030 -0.054 0.036 0.077 95% C.L. 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1564 1983 420 0.997 0.243 -0.062 2.912 0.241 0.215 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.215 0.210 0.151 0.171 0.107 0.083 0.076 0.009 0.055 0.077 PACF 0.215 0.172 0.083 0.104 0.026 0.007 0.018 -0.050 0.029 0.057 95% C.L. 0.098 0.102 0.106 0.108 0.111 0.112 0.112 0.113 0.113 0.113 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.093 0.155 0.144 0.065 0.105 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.38 MINUTES