RUN: OR001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: OR042X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: OR042X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 748 1 Crater Lake, NE-Medford DENSITY_MAXIMUM TSME - 748 2 United States of America mountain hemlock 2200 4258-12210 1564 1983 748 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 748061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1801 1801 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 748062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1801 1801 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 748071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1810 1810 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 748081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1953 1953 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 748082 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1639 1639 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 748092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 1 GAPS / 1808 1821 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 748101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 68 IN 1 GAPS / 1824 1891 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 748011 1710 1983 274 0.829 0.066 -0.847 3.238 0.053 0.659 2 748012 1738 1983 246 0.800 0.050 -0.662 3.682 0.045 0.543 3 748021 1695 1983 289 0.758 0.070 -0.201 2.578 0.051 0.724 4 748022 1690 1983 294 0.760 0.067 -0.618 3.393 0.060 0.614 5 748031 1687 1983 297 0.798 0.062 0.249 2.824 0.050 0.674 6 748032 1679 1983 305 0.773 0.065 -0.383 3.551 0.057 0.603 7 748041 1720 1983 264 0.781 0.062 -0.384 2.912 0.050 0.665 8 748042 1700 1983 284 0.814 0.064 0.181 3.197 0.056 0.565 9 748051 1564 1983 420 0.772 0.071 -0.574 2.835 0.075 0.449 10 748052 1655 1983 329 0.782 0.093 -0.646 2.926 0.081 0.631 11 748061 1683 1983 301 0.788 0.064 -0.515 3.479 0.064 0.443 12 748062 1711 1983 273 0.777 0.079 -0.402 2.401 0.067 0.631 13 748071 1703 1983 281 0.783 0.050 -0.351 3.285 0.050 0.508 14 748072 1740 1983 244 0.816 0.052 -0.162 2.895 0.052 0.473 15 748081 1646 1982 337 0.699 0.099 -0.265 2.517 0.071 0.782 16 748082 1618 1983 366 0.730 0.092 -0.463 2.832 0.062 0.800 17 748091 1566 1983 418 0.725 0.079 -0.735 3.287 0.067 0.698 18 748092 1592 1983 392 0.707 0.081 -0.457 2.773 0.076 0.624 19 748101 1683 1983 301 0.807 0.057 -0.475 3.285 0.057 0.444 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 748102 1668 1983 316 0.718 0.069 -0.355 2.996 0.065 0.643 21 748111 1720 1983 264 0.751 0.072 -0.470 3.039 0.096 0.228 22 748112 1666 1983 318 0.741 0.076 -0.643 3.362 0.085 0.441 23 748121 1802 1983 182 0.750 0.071 -0.221 3.365 0.078 0.462 24 748122 1672 1968 297 0.718 0.065 -0.749 4.205 0.068 0.534 25 748132 1668 1983 316 0.748 0.065 -0.294 2.980 0.070 0.444 26 748141 1753 1983 231 0.801 0.057 -1.076 4.703 0.059 0.400 27 748142 1704 1983 280 0.719 0.058 -0.634 3.391 0.076 0.253 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 27 FROM 1564 TO 1983 420 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 297 0.765 0.069 -0.450 3.183 0.064 0.553 STANDARD DEVIATION 54 0.037 0.013 0.284 0.492 0.012 0.143 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 294 0.772 0.066 -0.463 3.197 0.064 0.565 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 49 0.058 0.012 0.315 0.512 0.018 0.205 MINIMUM VALUE 182 0.699 0.050 -1.076 2.401 0.045 0.228 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 268 0.735 0.062 -0.638 2.865 0.055 0.446 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 317 0.793 0.074 -0.323 3.378 0.073 0.651 MAXIMUM VALUE 420 0.829 0.099 0.249 4.703 0.096 0.800 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 351 0.338 0.136 0.007 -0.078 2.821 -0.007 0.695 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.007 SERIES 748022 AND 748042 284 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.695 SERIES 748081 AND 748082 337 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 3. 6. 6. 36. 120. 253. 300. 325. 325. 351. RBAR 0.589 0.341 0.234 0.364 0.322 0.272 0.231 0.357 0.310 0.265 SDEV 0.098 0.259 0.171 0.179 0.237 0.204 0.212 0.211 0.226 0.222 SERR 0.057 0.106 0.070 0.030 0.022 0.013 0.012 0.012 0.013 0.012 EPS 0.835 0.719 0.733 0.899 0.910 0.902 0.886 0.936 0.923 0.907 NSS 3.5 4.9 9.0 15.5 21.2 24.6 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.0 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 351. 351. 351. 325. RBAR 0.407 0.422 0.402 0.354 SDEV 0.197 0.187 0.161 0.195 SERR 0.010 0.010 0.009 0.011 EPS 0.949 0.952 0.948 0.937 NSS 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1564 1983 420 0.769 0.044 -0.690 3.607 0.048 0.351 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.396 -0.224 0.236 95 325 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.16 0.23 1.00 1.04 1.27 6.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 297. 44. 182. 274. 317. 420. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.351 0.345 0.321 0.306 0.274 0.281 0.203 0.226 0.223 0.233 PACF 0.351 0.253 0.173 0.130 0.078 0.089 -0.015 0.044 0.050 0.065 95% C.L. 0.098 0.109 0.119 0.127 0.134 0.139 0.144 0.147 0.150 0.153 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.235 0.175 0.156 0.117 0.101 0.066 0.103 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 748011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00041504 0.88582736 2 748012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00012151 0.81484389 3 748021 1 0.15913408 0.00518687 0.00000000 0.67597437 4 748022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003733 0.76598293 5 748031 1 0.14693837 0.01089561 0.00000000 0.75506979 6 748032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00030959 0.82025301 7 748041 1 0.20720774 0.00457866 0.00000000 0.66132247 8 748042 1 0.18080483 0.04226161 0.00000000 0.79961854 9 748051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010141 0.79299045 10 748052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00059841 0.88043922 11 748061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004711 0.78039521 12 748062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006362 0.78458512 13 748071 1 0.09124600 0.01448234 0.00000000 0.76097107 14 748072 1 0.11487792 0.01344765 0.00000000 0.78300869 15 748081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00075174 0.82529849 16 748082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00065114 0.84981191 17 748091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00043285 0.81522739 18 748092 1 0.19515258 0.00357191 0.00000000 0.59655023 19 748101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002958 0.80471855 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 748102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010977 0.73512053 21 748111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014766 0.77058762 22 748112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035913 0.79800528 23 748121 1 0.09460756 0.00547657 0.00000000 0.69022828 24 748122 1 0.10563838 0.00923114 0.00000000 0.68193352 25 748132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004661 0.75552082 26 748141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003696 0.80571544 27 748142 1 0.09003499 0.00325825 0.00000000 0.65961850 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 748011 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.071 -0.210 2.939 0.053 0.559 2 748012 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.061 -0.666 3.764 0.045 0.524 3 748021 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.079 -0.493 3.243 0.051 0.633 4 748022 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.088 -0.662 3.513 0.060 0.611 5 748031 1687 1983 297 1.000 0.061 -0.007 3.215 0.049 0.492 6 748032 1679 1983 305 1.000 0.076 -0.579 3.633 0.057 0.511 7 748041 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.060 -0.460 4.070 0.050 0.400 8 748042 1700 1983 284 1.000 0.068 -0.306 2.857 0.056 0.385 9 748051 1564 1983 420 1.000 0.091 -0.576 2.940 0.075 0.433 10 748052 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.095 -0.466 3.666 0.081 0.390 11 748061 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.082 -0.664 3.791 0.065 0.472 12 748062 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.103 -0.416 2.402 0.068 0.604 13 748071 1703 1983 281 1.000 0.057 -0.560 3.710 0.050 0.393 14 748072 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.053 -0.542 3.115 0.051 0.232 15 748081 1646 1982 337 1.000 0.099 -0.174 2.819 0.071 0.549 16 748082 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.088 -0.096 2.944 0.062 0.580 17 748091 1566 1983 418 1.000 0.084 -0.309 3.365 0.067 0.482 18 748092 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.108 -0.536 3.199 0.075 0.586 19 748101 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.069 -0.465 3.339 0.057 0.396 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 748102 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.095 -0.277 2.971 0.064 0.633 21 748111 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.095 -0.408 3.142 0.095 0.210 22 748112 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.093 -0.615 4.344 0.084 0.302 23 748121 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.091 -0.491 3.319 0.077 0.423 24 748122 1672 1968 297 1.000 0.083 -0.750 5.012 0.068 0.434 25 748132 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.087 -0.281 3.012 0.070 0.439 26 748141 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.070 -1.071 4.700 0.059 0.398 27 748142 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.078 -0.742 3.545 0.075 0.190 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 301 1.000 0.081 -0.475 3.429 0.064 0.454 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.000 0.015 0.226 0.588 0.012 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 297 1.000 0.083 -0.491 3.319 0.064 0.439 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 43 0.000 0.023 0.289 0.697 0.019 0.159 MINIMUM VALUE 182 1.000 0.053 -1.071 2.402 0.045 0.190 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.070 -0.597 2.991 0.054 0.395 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 317 1.000 0.092 -0.308 3.688 0.073 0.554 MAXIMUM VALUE 420 1.000 0.108 -0.007 5.012 0.095 0.633 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 748011 -67 183 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 748012 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 748021 -67 193 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 748022 -67 196 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 748031 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 748032 -67 204 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 748041 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 748042 -67 190 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 748051 -67 281 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 748052 -67 220 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 748061 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 748062 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 748071 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 748072 -67 163 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 748081 -67 225 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 748082 -67 245 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 748091 -67 280 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 748092 -67 262 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 748101 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 748102 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 748111 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 748112 -67 213 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 748121 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 748122 -67 198 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 748132 -67 211 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 748141 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 748142 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 748011 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.061 -0.259 3.293 0.053 0.408 2 748012 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.059 -0.690 3.792 0.045 0.480 3 748021 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.078 -0.539 3.386 0.051 0.622 4 748022 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.080 -0.481 3.644 0.060 0.531 5 748031 1687 1983 297 1.000 0.059 -0.109 3.443 0.049 0.447 6 748032 1679 1983 305 1.000 0.072 -0.638 3.863 0.057 0.453 7 748041 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.060 -0.437 4.154 0.050 0.395 8 748042 1700 1983 284 1.000 0.066 -0.348 3.060 0.056 0.341 9 748051 1564 1983 420 1.000 0.088 -0.475 2.834 0.075 0.388 10 748052 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.089 -0.358 4.587 0.081 0.304 11 748061 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.080 -0.719 3.803 0.065 0.445 12 748062 1711 1983 273 0.999 0.084 -0.543 2.963 0.068 0.423 13 748071 1703 1983 281 1.000 0.057 -0.535 3.655 0.050 0.381 14 748072 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.052 -0.522 3.150 0.051 0.206 15 748081 1646 1982 337 1.000 0.094 -0.049 2.993 0.071 0.493 16 748082 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.081 -0.121 3.272 0.062 0.514 17 748091 1566 1983 418 1.000 0.077 -0.276 3.529 0.067 0.381 18 748092 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.104 -0.450 3.196 0.075 0.553 19 748101 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.068 -0.469 3.396 0.057 0.383 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 748102 1668 1983 316 0.999 0.082 -0.206 3.027 0.065 0.506 21 748111 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.092 -0.467 3.360 0.095 0.156 22 748112 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.092 -0.593 4.454 0.084 0.280 23 748121 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.087 -0.599 3.545 0.077 0.366 24 748122 1672 1968 297 1.000 0.081 -0.777 5.155 0.068 0.412 25 748132 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.082 -0.336 3.320 0.070 0.366 26 748141 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.069 -0.977 4.885 0.059 0.365 27 748142 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.077 -0.763 3.560 0.075 0.162 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 301 1.000 0.077 -0.472 3.604 0.064 0.398 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.000 0.013 0.219 0.590 0.012 0.111 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 297 1.000 0.080 -0.475 3.443 0.065 0.395 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 43 0.000 0.019 0.254 0.563 0.018 0.101 MINIMUM VALUE 182 0.999 0.052 -0.977 2.834 0.045 0.156 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.067 -0.596 3.234 0.054 0.365 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 317 1.000 0.085 -0.342 3.798 0.073 0.467 MAXIMUM VALUE 420 1.000 0.104 -0.049 5.155 0.095 0.622 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 351 0.307 0.106 0.006 0.044 3.405 -0.044 0.664 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.044 SERIES 748021 AND 748122 274 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.664 SERIES 748111 AND 748112 264 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 3. 6. 6. 36. 120. 253. 300. 325. 325. 351. RBAR 0.636 0.284 0.212 0.348 0.350 0.273 0.251 0.345 0.324 0.273 SDEV 0.063 0.287 0.166 0.184 0.221 0.197 0.204 0.203 0.225 0.214 SERR 0.036 0.117 0.068 0.031 0.020 0.012 0.012 0.011 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.861 0.662 0.706 0.892 0.919 0.902 0.897 0.933 0.928 0.910 NSS 3.5 4.9 9.0 15.5 21.2 24.6 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.0 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 351. 351. 351. 325. RBAR 0.396 0.424 0.405 0.370 SDEV 0.199 0.183 0.152 0.172 SERR 0.011 0.010 0.008 0.010 EPS 0.946 0.952 0.948 0.941 NSS 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1564 1983 420 1.001 0.049 -0.928 4.344 0.048 0.167 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.299 -0.136 0.195 120 300 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.27 1.00 1.05 1.32 5.36 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.167 0.139 0.113 0.076 0.047 0.057 -0.034 -0.023 -0.015 0.007 PACF 0.167 0.115 0.076 0.035 0.010 0.030 -0.064 -0.027 -0.008 0.021 95% C.L. 0.098 0.100 0.102 0.103 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 0.104 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.048 0.139 0.104 0.076 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.185 0.130 0.094 0.048 0.017 0.019 -0.020 -0.052 -0.019 -0.024 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.185 2 0.167 0.099 3 0.161 0.090 0.057 4 0.161 0.089 0.055 0.011 5 0.161 0.089 0.055 0.013 -0.009 6 0.161 0.089 0.055 0.012 -0.010 0.007 7 0.161 0.089 0.055 0.014 -0.007 0.012 -0.029 8 0.160 0.089 0.055 0.015 -0.005 0.016 -0.021 -0.050 9 0.160 0.089 0.055 0.015 -0.005 0.016 -0.021 -0.050 0.001 10 0.160 0.089 0.055 0.015 -0.005 0.016 -0.021 -0.050 0.002 -0.008 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2518.31 2505.63 2503.47 2504.13 2506.07 2508.04 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2510.02 2511.66 2512.59 2514.59 2516.56 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.167 0.099 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.39 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.59 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.167 0.127 0.038 0.019 0.007 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 748011 2 0.185 0.358 0.128 2 748012 2 0.262 0.412 0.144 3 748021 2 0.424 0.480 0.232 4 748022 2 0.310 0.431 0.190 5 748031 2 0.216 0.394 0.120 6 748032 2 0.225 0.399 0.120 7 748041 2 0.166 0.356 0.100 8 748042 2 0.174 0.271 0.215 9 748051 2 0.205 0.312 0.202 10 748052 2 0.110 0.289 0.064 11 748061 2 0.226 0.373 0.170 12 748062 2 0.264 0.290 0.315 13 748071 2 0.173 0.316 0.171 14 748072 2 0.089 0.176 0.146 15 748081 2 0.275 0.395 0.201 16 748082 2 0.295 0.427 0.175 17 748091 2 0.161 0.333 0.127 18 748092 2 0.366 0.402 0.274 19 748101 2 0.154 0.353 0.083 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 748102 2 0.308 0.403 0.205 21 748111 2 0.035 0.140 0.102 22 748112 2 0.101 0.240 0.146 23 748121 2 0.174 0.311 0.157 24 748122 2 0.222 0.313 0.240 25 748132 2 0.164 0.302 0.179 26 748141 2 0.180 0.330 0.103 27 748142 2 0.054 0.150 0.093 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.204 0.332 0.163 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.091 0.084 0.060 MEDIAN 2 0.185 0.333 0.157 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.100 0.101 0.081 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.035 0.140 0.064 LOWER HINGE 2 0.163 0.296 0.120 UPPER HINGE 2 0.263 0.397 0.202 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.424 0.480 0.315 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 748011 1710 1983 274 1.000 0.055 -0.293 3.491 0.062 -0.010 2 748012 1738 1983 246 1.000 0.051 -0.691 4.669 0.055 -0.022 3 748021 1695 1983 289 1.000 0.059 -0.477 4.879 0.062 0.008 4 748022 1690 1983 294 1.000 0.066 -0.555 4.720 0.073 0.004 5 748031 1687 1983 297 1.000 0.052 -0.184 2.938 0.060 -0.007 6 748032 1679 1983 305 1.000 0.063 -0.470 4.136 0.068 -0.012 7 748041 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.055 -0.560 4.409 0.058 -0.003 8 748042 1700 1983 284 1.000 0.060 -0.593 3.870 0.064 -0.030 9 748051 1564 1983 420 1.000 0.079 -0.467 3.232 0.087 -0.026 10 748052 1655 1983 329 1.000 0.084 -0.340 4.998 0.091 -0.008 11 748061 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.071 -0.623 3.963 0.078 -0.010 12 748062 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.072 -0.158 3.863 0.079 -0.019 13 748071 1703 1983 281 1.000 0.052 -0.347 3.406 0.059 -0.011 14 748072 1740 1983 244 1.000 0.050 -0.590 3.510 0.056 -0.024 15 748081 1646 1982 337 1.000 0.080 -0.177 3.531 0.085 -0.007 16 748082 1618 1983 366 1.000 0.069 -0.067 3.570 0.077 -0.010 17 748091 1566 1983 418 1.000 0.071 -0.257 3.640 0.079 -0.006 18 748092 1592 1983 392 1.000 0.083 -0.379 3.708 0.092 -0.029 19 748101 1683 1983 301 1.000 0.062 -0.529 3.431 0.068 -0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 748102 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.069 -0.004 3.286 0.080 -0.033 21 748111 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.090 -0.561 3.354 0.102 -0.002 22 748112 1666 1983 318 1.000 0.087 -0.635 4.084 0.095 -0.007 23 748121 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.080 -0.521 3.340 0.089 -0.024 24 748122 1672 1968 297 1.000 0.072 -0.678 4.249 0.079 -0.016 25 748132 1668 1983 316 1.000 0.075 -0.223 3.742 0.081 -0.006 26 748141 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.063 -1.254 6.015 0.068 -0.018 27 748142 1704 1983 280 1.000 0.075 -0.875 3.920 0.081 -0.013 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 301 1.000 0.068 -0.463 3.924 0.075 -0.013 STANDARD DEVIATION 53 0.000 0.012 0.263 0.676 0.013 0.010 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 297 1.000 0.069 -0.477 3.742 0.078 -0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 43 0.000 0.018 0.317 0.731 0.020 0.014 MINIMUM VALUE 182 1.000 0.050 -1.254 2.938 0.055 -0.033 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 273 1.000 0.060 -0.591 3.461 0.063 -0.020 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 317 1.000 0.077 -0.275 4.193 0.083 -0.006 MAXIMUM VALUE 420 1.000 0.090 -0.004 6.015 0.102 0.008 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 351 0.382 0.101 0.005 -0.009 2.971 0.125 0.724 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.125 SERIES 748021 AND 748121 182 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.724 SERIES 748111 AND 748112 264 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 64.46 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1620. 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. CORR 3. 6. 6. 36. 120. 253. 300. 325. 325. 351. RBAR 0.684 0.249 0.313 0.462 0.412 0.354 0.303 0.375 0.367 0.345 SDEV 0.052 0.349 0.195 0.148 0.205 0.179 0.164 0.162 0.185 0.188 SERR 0.030 0.142 0.080 0.025 0.019 0.011 0.009 0.009 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.885 0.621 0.803 0.930 0.937 0.931 0.918 0.941 0.940 0.934 NSS 3.5 4.9 9.0 15.5 21.2 24.6 25.8 26.4 26.9 27.0 YEAR 1870. 1895. 1920. 1945. CORR 351. 351. 351. 325. RBAR 0.478 0.503 0.475 0.406 SDEV 0.178 0.152 0.122 0.144 SERR 0.010 0.008 0.007 0.008 EPS 0.961 0.965 0.961 0.949 NSS 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1564 1983 420 1.001 0.049 -0.866 4.629 0.057 -0.180 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.324 -0.143 0.193 119 301 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.37 1.00 1.11 1.48 12.66 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.11 0.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.179 -0.100 0.030 0.012 -0.001 0.048 -0.038 -0.002 -0.009 -0.012 PACF -0.179 -0.136 -0.016 0.002 0.005 0.053 -0.019 -0.002 -0.019 -0.020 95% C.L. 0.098 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.051 -0.204 -0.137 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.003 -0.003 -0.013 0.013 0.012 0.043 -0.033 -0.009 -0.011 0.003 PACF -0.003 -0.003 -0.013 0.013 0.012 0.043 -0.033 -0.008 -0.010 0.001 95% C.L. 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 0.098 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1564 1983 420 1.001 0.049 -0.897 4.225 0.047 0.181 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.180 0.126 0.031 0.036 0.023 0.041 -0.024 -0.008 -0.007 0.009 PACF 0.180 0.097 -0.007 0.021 0.012 0.031 -0.042 -0.006 0.001 0.011 95% C.L. 0.098 0.101 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.102 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.042 0.163 0.097 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.42 MINUTES