RUN: OR001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: OR043E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: OR043E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 762 1 Barlow Pass, am Mt.Hood WIDTH_EARLY PSME - 762 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 1300 4519-12139 1504 19 762 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 762011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1672 1673 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 762041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1649 1649 / 1655 1655 / 1704 1704 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 762062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1972 1972 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 0.530 0.315 0.664 2.522 0.209 0.873 2 762012 1579 1983 405 0.576 0.208 0.520 3.029 0.185 0.795 3 762021 1625 1983 359 0.538 0.253 0.695 3.113 0.242 0.794 4 762022 1559 1983 425 0.536 0.355 0.856 3.208 0.258 0.901 5 762031 1741 1983 243 0.499 0.189 1.218 5.724 0.196 0.785 6 762032 1625 1983 359 0.519 0.208 1.197 4.868 0.196 0.821 7 762041 1510 1983 474 0.536 0.380 1.798 7.486 0.193 0.930 8 762042 1504 1983 480 0.495 0.361 2.432 11.290 0.191 0.915 9 762051 1745 1983 239 0.462 0.358 3.494 23.683 0.221 0.867 10 762052 1750 1983 234 0.474 0.187 0.949 4.145 0.167 0.823 11 762061 1729 1983 255 0.377 0.213 0.283 2.300 0.213 0.871 12 762062 1654 1983 330 0.462 0.326 0.297 1.819 0.242 0.918 13 762071 1711 1983 273 0.769 0.614 1.837 5.488 0.170 0.959 14 762072 1721 1983 263 0.743 0.483 1.700 5.550 0.206 0.917 15 762081 1733 1983 251 0.808 0.224 0.779 4.751 0.154 0.737 16 762082 1705 1983 279 0.671 0.405 1.822 6.169 0.149 0.929 17 762091 1734 1983 250 0.911 0.499 1.414 4.697 0.131 0.942 18 762092 1807 1983 177 0.703 0.181 -0.127 3.696 0.113 0.788 19 762101 1720 1983 264 0.613 0.321 2.487 11.154 0.146 0.884 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 0.639 0.461 3.166 14.482 0.143 0.893 21 762111 1737 1983 247 0.452 0.159 1.410 6.580 0.180 0.738 22 762112 1734 1983 250 0.347 0.186 1.765 6.456 0.200 0.852 23 762121 1742 1983 242 0.686 0.221 0.278 2.461 0.145 0.824 24 762122 1746 1983 238 0.640 0.244 0.813 2.903 0.162 0.874 25 762131 1652 1983 332 0.732 0.330 0.739 2.652 0.187 0.864 26 762132 1613 1983 371 0.562 0.304 0.868 3.038 0.205 0.907 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1504 TO 1983 480 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 0.588 0.307 1.283 5.895 0.185 0.862 STANDARD DEVIATION 79 0.136 0.117 0.895 4.757 0.036 0.062 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 0.550 0.309 1.073 4.724 0.189 0.872 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.191 0.153 1.104 3.427 0.052 0.094 MINIMUM VALUE 177 0.347 0.159 -0.127 1.819 0.113 0.737 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 0.495 0.208 0.695 3.029 0.154 0.821 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 0.686 0.361 1.798 6.456 0.206 0.915 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 0.911 0.614 3.494 23.683 0.258 0.959 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.413 0.318 0.018 -0.627 2.541 -0.516 0.947 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.516 SERIES 762031 AND 762092 177 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.947 SERIES 762071 AND 762072 263 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1560. 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. CORR 1. 3. 6. 10. 28. 45. 45. 55. 171. 300. RBAR 0.825 0.470 0.665 0.298 0.197 0.352 0.491 0.309 0.349 0.572 SDEV 0.000 0.119 0.101 0.289 0.337 0.238 0.188 0.233 0.255 0.199 SERR 0.000 0.069 0.041 0.092 0.064 0.036 0.028 0.031 0.019 0.012 EPS 0.926 0.769 0.916 0.764 0.695 0.846 0.921 0.892 0.928 0.971 NSS 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.6 9.3 10.1 12.1 18.5 24.0 25.1 YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.430 0.269 0.238 0.221 0.184 0.132 SDEV 0.197 0.283 0.319 0.283 0.322 0.313 SERR 0.011 0.016 0.018 0.016 0.018 0.017 EPS 0.951 0.905 0.890 0.881 0.854 0.797 NSS 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 0.691 0.341 2.213 10.090 0.134 0.912 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.144 0.055 0.208 150 330 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.61 1.00 1.08 1.69 7.92 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 264. 112. 177. 247. 359. 480. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.911 0.867 0.812 0.768 0.721 0.693 0.688 0.657 0.645 0.622 PACF 0.911 0.221 -0.025 0.020 -0.014 0.083 0.184 -0.091 0.045 -0.009 95% C.L. 0.091 0.149 0.186 0.214 0.236 0.253 0.269 0.283 0.295 0.307 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.885 0.592 0.364 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 762011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00237487 0.98552722 2 762012 1 0.50883394 0.00750319 0.00000000 0.41745284 3 762021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00157027 0.82100433 4 762022 1 1.21955597 0.00480758 0.00000000 0.01733328 5 762031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00128227 0.34232834 6 762032 1 0.34303480 0.01139063 0.00000000 0.43749210 7 762041 1 1.72527599 0.02946808 0.00000000 0.41198057 8 762042 1 1.52125728 0.01852615 0.00000000 0.32527030 9 762051 1 1.14374745 0.01738737 0.00000000 0.19377467 10 762052 1 0.58328331 0.00777821 0.00000000 0.20687510 11 762061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00251505 0.69886708 12 762062 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 762071 1 2.57660961 0.02349647 0.00000000 0.37265855 14 762072 1 1.94632101 0.02446080 0.00000000 0.44437146 15 762081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00040146 0.75746328 16 762082 1 1.60543799 0.02431932 0.00000000 0.43725279 17 762091 1 1.64794147 0.01805135 0.00000000 0.55288732 18 762092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00238041 0.91502053 19 762101 1 1.69317472 0.06312933 0.00000000 0.51411879 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 762102 1 2.47957277 0.05082308 0.00000000 0.45772612 21 762111 1 0.36524504 0.00344018 0.00000000 0.20595855 22 762112 1 0.51382428 0.01956946 0.00000000 0.24402897 23 762121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00113555 0.82383734 24 762122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00102572 0.51721627 25 762131 1 1.10392106 0.00407326 0.00000000 0.12809840 26 762132 1 0.95786095 0.00652911 0.00000000 0.20265715 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 1.078 0.603 3.115 15.600 0.209 0.847 2 762012 1579 1983 405 1.000 0.294 0.454 3.349 0.185 0.693 3 762021 1625 1983 359 1.006 0.356 0.182 3.081 0.242 0.674 4 762022 1559 1983 425 0.987 0.399 0.774 4.175 0.257 0.699 5 762031 1741 1983 243 1.005 0.343 0.867 3.761 0.195 0.749 6 762032 1625 1983 359 0.999 0.345 0.628 3.396 0.195 0.742 7 762041 1510 1983 474 0.999 0.496 0.361 2.617 0.193 0.896 8 762042 1504 1983 480 0.999 0.385 0.838 4.012 0.191 0.823 9 762051 1745 1983 239 0.995 0.303 1.210 8.492 0.220 0.549 10 762052 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.269 0.894 3.873 0.167 0.673 11 762061 1729 1983 255 0.992 0.266 0.215 3.776 0.214 0.534 12 762062 1654 1983 330 1.140 0.978 8.039 80.385 0.240 0.625 13 762071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.242 0.198 3.479 0.169 0.574 14 762072 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.290 0.361 3.675 0.205 0.608 15 762081 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.277 0.983 6.113 0.153 0.720 16 762082 1705 1983 279 1.001 0.288 0.561 3.547 0.148 0.769 17 762091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.313 -0.055 4.086 0.131 0.853 18 762092 1807 1983 177 0.998 0.196 -0.339 2.838 0.113 0.679 19 762101 1720 1983 264 1.001 0.314 0.585 3.413 0.145 0.778 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.261 0.887 3.375 0.142 0.742 21 762111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.320 0.966 3.772 0.179 0.711 22 762112 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.370 1.186 5.860 0.199 0.725 23 762121 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.311 0.532 2.866 0.145 0.816 24 762122 1746 1983 238 1.001 0.352 0.432 2.422 0.162 0.842 25 762131 1652 1983 332 1.002 0.315 0.257 2.513 0.186 0.729 26 762132 1613 1983 371 1.002 0.349 0.286 2.808 0.205 0.769 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 1.008 0.355 0.939 7.203 0.184 0.724 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.031 0.150 1.577 15.158 0.036 0.095 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 1.000 0.314 0.573 3.611 0.189 0.727 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.002 0.068 0.608 1.005 0.052 0.104 MINIMUM VALUE 177 0.987 0.196 -0.339 2.422 0.113 0.534 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 0.999 0.288 0.286 3.081 0.153 0.674 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 1.001 0.356 0.894 4.086 0.205 0.778 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 1.140 0.978 8.039 80.385 0.257 0.896 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 762011 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 762012 -67 271 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 762021 -67 240 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 762022 -67 284 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 762031 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 762032 -67 240 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 762041 -67 317 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 762042 -67 321 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 762051 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 762052 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 762061 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 762062 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 762071 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 762072 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 762081 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 762082 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 762091 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 762092 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 762101 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 762102 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 762111 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 762112 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 762121 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 762122 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 762131 -67 222 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 762132 -67 248 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 0.988 0.306 0.378 2.993 0.209 0.633 2 762012 1579 1983 405 0.995 0.257 0.192 3.452 0.185 0.607 3 762021 1625 1983 359 0.992 0.321 0.171 3.109 0.242 0.613 4 762022 1559 1983 425 0.992 0.349 0.392 3.221 0.257 0.568 5 762031 1741 1983 243 0.991 0.258 0.393 2.840 0.196 0.563 6 762032 1625 1983 359 0.994 0.295 0.450 3.280 0.195 0.669 7 762041 1510 1983 474 0.982 0.469 0.574 2.952 0.193 0.887 8 762042 1504 1983 480 0.995 0.321 0.514 4.077 0.191 0.744 9 762051 1745 1983 239 0.996 0.283 1.522 12.298 0.220 0.488 10 762052 1750 1983 234 0.998 0.257 0.731 3.392 0.167 0.644 11 762061 1729 1983 255 0.997 0.246 0.124 4.005 0.214 0.450 12 762062 1654 1983 330 0.993 0.392 2.743 22.591 0.240 0.563 13 762071 1711 1983 273 0.999 0.236 0.324 3.844 0.169 0.554 14 762072 1721 1983 263 0.996 0.272 0.351 3.717 0.205 0.559 15 762081 1733 1983 251 0.995 0.235 0.598 4.505 0.153 0.642 16 762082 1705 1983 279 0.995 0.266 0.518 3.324 0.148 0.738 17 762091 1734 1983 250 0.992 0.288 -0.097 3.102 0.131 0.835 18 762092 1807 1983 177 0.997 0.167 0.126 2.651 0.113 0.579 19 762101 1720 1983 264 0.997 0.235 0.433 3.096 0.145 0.664 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 0.998 0.191 0.263 2.836 0.142 0.563 21 762111 1737 1983 247 0.999 0.314 0.953 3.777 0.179 0.704 22 762112 1734 1983 250 0.997 0.345 0.937 5.011 0.199 0.701 23 762121 1742 1983 242 0.994 0.280 0.375 2.551 0.145 0.774 24 762122 1746 1983 238 0.987 0.274 0.190 2.393 0.161 0.733 25 762131 1652 1983 332 0.992 0.261 0.031 2.696 0.186 0.610 26 762132 1613 1983 371 0.994 0.305 -0.098 2.635 0.205 0.685 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 0.994 0.286 0.503 4.398 0.184 0.645 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.004 0.061 0.574 4.154 0.036 0.102 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 0.995 0.277 0.385 3.250 0.189 0.638 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.004 0.058 0.384 1.004 0.052 0.140 MINIMUM VALUE 177 0.982 0.167 -0.098 2.393 0.113 0.450 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 0.992 0.257 0.190 2.840 0.153 0.563 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 0.997 0.314 0.574 3.844 0.205 0.704 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 0.999 0.469 2.743 22.591 0.257 0.887 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.237 0.170 0.009 0.093 2.632 -0.178 0.725 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.178 SERIES 762062 AND 762091 250 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.725 SERIES 762091 AND 762092 177 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1560. 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. CORR 1. 3. 6. 10. 28. 45. 45. 55. 171. 300. RBAR 0.741 0.303 0.529 0.214 0.226 0.362 0.562 0.285 0.367 0.527 SDEV 0.000 0.105 0.136 0.341 0.320 0.215 0.150 0.199 0.191 0.189 SERR 0.000 0.061 0.055 0.108 0.061 0.032 0.022 0.027 0.015 0.011 EPS 0.883 0.620 0.860 0.675 0.731 0.851 0.940 0.881 0.933 0.965 NSS 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.6 9.3 10.1 12.1 18.5 24.0 25.1 YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.455 0.258 0.213 0.249 0.207 0.180 SDEV 0.202 0.262 0.303 0.251 0.280 0.299 SERR 0.012 0.015 0.017 0.014 0.016 0.017 EPS 0.955 0.901 0.875 0.896 0.872 0.851 NSS 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 0.987 0.177 -0.190 3.063 0.134 0.569 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.016 -0.009 0.231 123 357 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.59 1.00 1.04 1.64 13.35 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.568 0.491 0.439 0.353 0.254 0.225 0.225 0.153 0.158 0.131 PACF 0.568 0.249 0.139 0.015 -0.063 0.016 0.074 -0.039 0.039 -0.010 95% C.L. 0.091 0.117 0.133 0.145 0.152 0.155 0.158 0.161 0.162 0.163 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.379 0.389 0.191 0.142 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.483 0.402 0.415 0.309 0.174 0.159 0.107 0.000 -0.002 -0.027 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.483 2 0.376 0.221 3 0.328 0.139 0.216 4 0.325 0.137 0.210 0.018 5 0.327 0.160 0.225 0.054 -0.110 6 0.325 0.161 0.228 0.056 -0.106 -0.013 7 0.325 0.158 0.230 0.062 -0.102 -0.004 -0.026 8 0.322 0.158 0.220 0.067 -0.081 0.010 0.003 -0.090 9 0.322 0.158 0.220 0.067 -0.081 0.010 0.003 -0.089 -0.003 10 0.322 0.156 0.221 0.067 -0.082 0.012 0.008 -0.086 0.004 -0.021 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3981.84 3856.55 3834.57 3813.63 3815.47 3811.61 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3813.53 3815.19 3813.27 3815.26 3817.05 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.328 0.139 0.216 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 30.44 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 143.76 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.328 0.247 0.343 0.218 0.173 0.161 0.124 0.101 0.085 0.0689 0.056 0.046 0.038 0.031 0.026 0.021 0.017 0.014 0.012 0.0095 0.008 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.0013 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 762011 3 0.456 0.440 0.225 0.096 2 762012 3 0.429 0.441 0.325 -0.054 3 762021 3 0.414 0.475 0.109 0.145 4 762022 3 0.411 0.337 0.241 0.177 5 762031 3 0.374 0.415 0.095 0.212 6 762032 3 0.490 0.500 0.102 0.182 7 762041 3 0.810 0.574 0.208 0.151 8 762042 3 0.579 0.587 0.155 0.070 9 762051 3 0.264 0.429 0.036 0.137 10 762052 3 0.478 0.466 0.128 0.185 11 762061 3 0.252 0.349 0.160 0.088 12 762062 3 0.410 0.505 0.083 0.129 13 762071 3 0.358 0.402 0.144 0.160 14 762072 3 0.333 0.480 0.054 0.125 15 762081 3 0.419 0.602 0.064 0.004 16 762082 3 0.582 0.558 0.109 0.160 17 762091 3 0.729 0.673 0.135 0.077 18 762092 3 0.383 0.432 0.252 0.007 19 762101 3 0.469 0.525 0.108 0.126 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 762102 3 0.337 0.482 0.077 0.097 21 762111 3 0.529 0.629 0.062 0.065 22 762112 3 0.503 0.627 0.087 0.029 23 762121 3 0.646 0.611 0.377 -0.180 24 762122 3 0.559 0.580 0.181 0.034 25 762131 3 0.444 0.406 0.325 0.013 26 762132 3 0.545 0.417 0.358 0.033 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.469 0.498 0.162 0.087 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.131 0.092 0.099 0.087 MEDIAN 3 0.450 0.481 0.131 0.097 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.162 0.151 0.138 0.117 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.252 0.337 0.036 -0.180 LOWER HINGE 3 0.383 0.429 0.087 0.033 UPPER HINGE 3 0.545 0.580 0.225 0.151 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.810 0.673 0.377 0.212 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.226 0.074 3.592 0.252 0.004 2 762012 1579 1983 405 1.000 0.194 -0.027 3.695 0.222 0.000 3 762021 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.247 -0.077 4.177 0.289 -0.013 4 762022 1559 1983 425 1.001 0.267 0.061 4.236 0.296 -0.012 5 762031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.204 0.209 2.915 0.234 -0.009 6 762032 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.211 0.223 4.018 0.235 0.002 7 762041 1510 1983 474 1.000 0.204 -0.102 4.552 0.222 0.002 8 762042 1504 1983 480 1.000 0.208 -0.300 4.225 0.241 0.004 9 762051 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.243 1.274 11.489 0.265 -0.010 10 762052 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.186 0.370 3.431 0.207 -0.027 11 762061 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.214 -0.108 4.579 0.251 -0.014 12 762062 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.302 2.988 28.171 0.287 0.040 13 762071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.189 0.455 4.404 0.204 -0.009 14 762072 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.222 0.232 4.278 0.256 0.005 15 762081 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.179 1.209 11.378 0.187 0.001 16 762082 1705 1983 279 1.000 0.172 0.302 4.258 0.189 -0.011 17 762091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.150 -0.208 3.644 0.169 0.014 18 762092 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.131 -0.204 3.175 0.141 0.003 19 762101 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.171 0.464 3.835 0.179 0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.156 0.286 3.173 0.179 -0.005 21 762111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.219 1.026 7.359 0.231 0.006 22 762112 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.243 1.320 9.982 0.248 0.003 23 762121 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.167 -0.080 3.544 0.181 -0.010 24 762122 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.182 0.012 3.794 0.204 -0.001 25 762131 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.194 0.037 3.515 0.223 -0.003 26 762132 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.206 -0.031 4.112 0.232 -0.002 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 1.000 0.203 0.362 5.751 0.224 -0.001 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.038 0.707 5.165 0.039 0.012 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 1.000 0.204 0.141 4.144 0.227 0.000 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.000 0.043 0.531 0.960 0.062 0.013 MINIMUM VALUE 177 1.000 0.131 -0.300 2.915 0.141 -0.027 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 1.000 0.179 -0.077 3.592 0.189 -0.010 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 1.000 0.222 0.455 4.552 0.251 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 1.001 0.302 2.988 28.171 0.296 0.040 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.344 0.111 0.006 -0.020 3.302 -0.011 0.671 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.011 SERIES 762062 AND 762081 251 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.671 SERIES 762091 AND 762092 177 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1560. 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. CORR 1. 3. 6. 10. 28. 45. 45. 55. 171. 300. RBAR 0.697 0.305 0.367 0.326 0.283 0.469 0.452 0.353 0.385 0.428 SDEV 0.000 0.155 0.182 0.156 0.149 0.117 0.151 0.194 0.184 0.138 SERR 0.000 0.090 0.074 0.049 0.028 0.017 0.022 0.026 0.014 0.008 EPS 0.859 0.622 0.760 0.787 0.786 0.899 0.909 0.910 0.938 0.949 NSS 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.6 9.3 10.1 12.1 18.5 24.0 25.1 YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.473 0.489 0.412 0.366 0.299 0.260 SDEV 0.120 0.134 0.156 0.148 0.153 0.183 SERR 0.007 0.007 0.009 0.008 0.008 0.010 EPS 0.958 0.961 0.948 0.938 0.917 0.901 NSS 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 0.997 0.132 -0.196 3.315 0.158 -0.127 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.029 -0.014 0.158 124 356 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.51 1.00 1.07 1.58 285.42 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.127 -0.021 0.031 0.024 -0.067 -0.026 0.063 -0.050 0.080 0.028 PACF -0.127 -0.038 0.024 0.031 -0.059 -0.042 0.051 -0.034 0.079 0.042 95% C.L. 0.091 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.094 0.094 0.095 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.018 -0.127 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.003 0.003 0.020 -0.065 -0.031 0.054 -0.030 0.084 0.033 PACF -0.001 0.003 0.003 0.020 -0.065 -0.031 0.055 -0.030 0.087 0.030 95% C.L. 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.093 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 -0.001 0.003 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 0.997 0.155 -0.124 3.065 0.126 0.476 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.475 0.388 0.403 0.291 0.184 0.177 0.176 0.095 0.120 0.075 PACF 0.475 0.209 0.213 0.009 -0.070 0.011 0.056 -0.036 0.050 -0.044 95% C.L. 0.091 0.110 0.121 0.132 0.137 0.139 0.141 0.143 0.143 0.144 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.295 0.330 0.130 0.215 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.74 MINUTES