RUN: OR001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: OR043I.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: OR043I.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 762 1 Barlow Pass, am Mt.Hood DENSITY_EARLY PSME - 762 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 1300 4519-12139 1504 19 762 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 762011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1672 1673 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 762041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1649 1649 / 1655 1655 / 1704 1704 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 762062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1972 1972 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 4.139 0.389 0.786 3.747 0.055 0.707 2 762012 1579 1983 405 3.665 0.294 2.602 21.885 0.047 0.592 3 762021 1625 1983 359 3.897 0.363 0.490 2.777 0.048 0.771 4 762022 1559 1983 425 3.811 0.289 1.738 15.936 0.054 0.426 5 762031 1741 1983 243 4.083 0.364 2.390 13.251 0.051 0.698 6 762032 1625 1983 359 3.843 0.336 0.808 3.812 0.055 0.624 7 762041 1510 1983 474 3.792 0.281 0.058 3.212 0.044 0.696 8 762042 1504 1983 480 4.075 0.363 0.369 2.779 0.048 0.734 9 762051 1745 1983 239 3.733 0.221 0.697 4.013 0.043 0.516 10 762052 1750 1983 234 3.750 0.169 0.357 3.819 0.036 0.447 11 762061 1729 1983 255 4.433 0.296 -0.382 3.664 0.059 0.391 12 762062 1654 1983 330 4.062 0.331 0.301 2.673 0.063 0.517 13 762071 1711 1983 273 3.965 0.358 0.577 3.218 0.052 0.744 14 762072 1721 1983 263 4.053 0.316 0.397 3.620 0.048 0.656 15 762081 1733 1983 251 3.589 0.228 0.466 5.404 0.046 0.459 16 762082 1705 1983 279 3.584 0.262 1.393 7.479 0.045 0.654 17 762091 1734 1983 250 3.500 0.360 0.963 3.986 0.042 0.838 18 762092 1807 1983 177 3.428 0.228 -0.530 2.921 0.041 0.688 19 762101 1720 1983 264 3.819 0.225 1.125 5.238 0.042 0.538 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 3.821 0.218 0.419 3.470 0.043 0.563 21 762111 1737 1983 247 3.848 0.265 0.415 3.431 0.044 0.610 22 762112 1734 1983 250 4.064 0.284 0.757 5.008 0.049 0.501 23 762121 1742 1983 242 3.792 0.247 0.372 3.414 0.045 0.591 24 762122 1746 1983 238 3.737 0.220 0.403 3.672 0.048 0.395 25 762131 1652 1983 332 3.844 0.282 0.246 3.520 0.042 0.742 26 762132 1613 1983 371 4.037 0.289 0.226 2.989 0.045 0.666 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1504 TO 1983 480 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 3.860 0.288 0.671 5.344 0.048 0.606 STANDARD DEVIATION 79 0.222 0.058 0.714 4.593 0.006 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 3.832 0.286 0.443 3.668 0.047 0.617 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.317 0.107 0.452 1.789 0.008 0.181 MINIMUM VALUE 177 3.428 0.169 -0.530 2.673 0.036 0.391 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 3.737 0.228 0.357 3.218 0.043 0.516 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 4.053 0.336 0.808 5.008 0.051 0.698 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 4.433 0.389 2.602 21.885 0.063 0.838 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.141 0.172 0.010 -0.167 2.968 -0.400 0.575 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.400 SERIES 762062 AND 762092 177 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.575 SERIES 762011 AND 762082 279 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1560. 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. CORR 1. 3. 6. 10. 28. 45. 45. 55. 171. 300. RBAR 0.421 0.240 0.320 0.241 0.137 0.171 0.185 0.335 0.204 0.208 SDEV 0.000 0.285 0.193 0.151 0.329 0.230 0.160 0.161 0.222 0.209 SERR 0.000 0.165 0.079 0.048 0.062 0.034 0.024 0.022 0.017 0.012 EPS 0.657 0.543 0.721 0.707 0.595 0.675 0.734 0.903 0.860 0.868 NSS 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.6 9.3 10.1 12.1 18.5 24.0 25.1 YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.190 0.147 0.136 0.134 0.144 0.210 SDEV 0.188 0.212 0.263 0.244 0.265 0.212 SERR 0.011 0.012 0.015 0.014 0.015 0.012 EPS 0.857 0.818 0.803 0.801 0.813 0.873 NSS 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 3.802 0.164 -0.293 3.222 0.032 0.555 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.490 0.322 -0.923 113 367 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.21 0.64 1.00 1.07 1.71 37.99 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 264. 112. 177. 247. 359. 480. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.554 0.609 0.538 0.517 0.505 0.454 0.506 0.438 0.489 0.427 PACF 0.554 0.435 0.190 0.109 0.105 0.017 0.144 0.018 0.105 -0.001 95% C.L. 0.091 0.116 0.140 0.156 0.170 0.182 0.191 0.202 0.210 0.219 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.475 0.192 0.315 0.132 0.093 0.110 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 762011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00082737 3.98133850 2 762012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00113676 3.43457174 3 762021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00041906 3.82114267 4 762022 1 0.36251649 0.01517974 0.00000000 3.75493312 5 762031 1 0.75791681 0.03477044 0.00000000 3.99503803 6 762032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00115067 3.63585901 7 762041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00106293 3.54070425 8 762042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00118022 3.79151082 9 762051 1 0.64053470 0.05070562 0.00000000 3.68131995 10 762052 1 0.24702497 0.02497061 0.00000000 3.70845771 11 762061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00004368 4.43900299 12 762062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00007593 4.07584333 13 762071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00188986 4.22389269 14 762072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00026284 4.01857471 15 762081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00060012 3.51318955 16 762082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00012059 3.56673765 17 762091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00281885 3.14643478 18 762092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00244451 3.21091294 19 762101 1 0.93074512 0.08195293 0.00000000 3.77762198 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 762102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00043375 3.87793899 21 762111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00038239 3.89523053 22 762112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00069095 3.97756529 23 762121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00094010 3.67755485 24 762122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00086831 3.63279128 25 762131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00082429 3.70658159 26 762132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00107452 3.83674359 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.091 0.688 3.313 0.054 0.681 2 762012 1579 1983 405 1.000 0.070 2.539 22.292 0.047 0.488 3 762021 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.093 0.548 2.875 0.048 0.764 4 762022 1559 1983 425 1.000 0.073 2.239 20.813 0.054 0.372 5 762031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.078 1.525 8.482 0.051 0.600 6 762032 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.081 0.790 3.929 0.055 0.561 7 762041 1510 1983 474 1.000 0.064 0.395 4.048 0.044 0.575 8 762042 1504 1983 480 1.000 0.079 0.255 4.153 0.048 0.655 9 762051 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.051 0.692 4.873 0.043 0.338 10 762052 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.043 0.556 4.845 0.036 0.372 11 762061 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.067 -0.379 3.673 0.059 0.389 12 762062 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.082 0.303 2.658 0.063 0.514 13 762071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.081 0.306 3.014 0.052 0.673 14 762072 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.078 0.339 3.603 0.048 0.652 15 762081 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.063 0.776 6.034 0.046 0.436 16 762082 1705 1983 279 1.000 0.073 1.400 7.379 0.045 0.651 17 762091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.083 0.039 3.202 0.041 0.770 18 762092 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.056 -0.276 2.913 0.040 0.561 19 762101 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.048 0.414 3.586 0.042 0.325 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.056 0.309 3.313 0.043 0.548 21 762111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.068 0.428 3.446 0.044 0.606 22 762112 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.069 0.899 5.363 0.049 0.483 23 762121 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.063 0.432 3.453 0.045 0.557 24 762122 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.057 0.400 3.745 0.048 0.342 25 762131 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.070 0.010 3.385 0.042 0.716 26 762132 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.066 0.373 3.565 0.045 0.601 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 1.000 0.069 0.615 5.460 0.047 0.547 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.013 0.669 4.937 0.006 0.133 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 1.000 0.069 0.421 3.638 0.047 0.561 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.000 0.016 0.470 1.560 0.008 0.216 MINIMUM VALUE 177 1.000 0.043 -0.379 2.658 0.036 0.325 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 1.000 0.063 0.306 3.313 0.043 0.436 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 1.000 0.079 0.776 4.873 0.051 0.652 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 1.000 0.093 2.539 22.292 0.063 0.770 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 762011 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 762012 -67 271 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 762021 -67 240 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 762022 -67 284 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 762031 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 762032 -67 240 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 762041 -67 317 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 762042 -67 321 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 762051 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 762052 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 762061 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 762062 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 762071 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 762072 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 762081 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 762082 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 762091 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 762092 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 762101 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 762102 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 762111 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 762112 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 762121 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 762122 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 762131 -67 222 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 762132 -67 248 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.078 0.769 3.624 0.054 0.573 2 762012 1579 1983 405 1.000 0.068 2.570 22.946 0.047 0.456 3 762021 1625 1983 359 0.999 0.068 0.389 3.015 0.048 0.570 4 762022 1559 1983 425 1.000 0.069 2.652 25.400 0.054 0.300 5 762031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.073 1.581 9.437 0.051 0.550 6 762032 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.071 0.862 4.573 0.055 0.426 7 762041 1510 1983 474 1.000 0.059 0.344 4.227 0.044 0.517 8 762042 1504 1983 480 1.000 0.071 0.802 5.376 0.048 0.568 9 762051 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.050 0.741 5.062 0.043 0.322 10 762052 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.042 0.600 5.058 0.036 0.357 11 762061 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.063 0.068 3.615 0.059 0.305 12 762062 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.071 0.302 3.164 0.063 0.349 13 762071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.067 0.428 3.378 0.052 0.532 14 762072 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.073 0.329 3.491 0.048 0.616 15 762081 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.060 0.904 6.692 0.046 0.376 16 762082 1705 1983 279 1.000 0.064 1.413 8.464 0.045 0.558 17 762091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.066 0.531 4.247 0.041 0.649 18 762092 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.052 -0.243 3.418 0.040 0.484 19 762101 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.046 0.489 3.639 0.042 0.283 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.052 0.458 3.729 0.043 0.474 21 762111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.057 0.752 5.242 0.044 0.444 22 762112 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.064 1.214 7.494 0.049 0.400 23 762121 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.057 0.508 3.772 0.045 0.479 24 762122 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.055 0.431 3.808 0.048 0.294 25 762131 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.066 0.167 3.645 0.042 0.682 26 762132 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.058 0.595 4.212 0.045 0.486 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 1.000 0.062 0.756 6.182 0.047 0.463 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.009 0.672 5.556 0.006 0.116 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 1.000 0.064 0.563 4.219 0.047 0.476 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.000 0.012 0.473 1.752 0.008 0.201 MINIMUM VALUE 177 0.999 0.042 -0.243 3.015 0.036 0.283 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 1.000 0.057 0.389 3.624 0.043 0.357 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 1.000 0.069 0.862 5.376 0.051 0.558 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 1.000 0.078 2.652 25.400 0.063 0.682 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.161 0.122 0.007 0.045 3.135 -0.169 0.487 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.169 SERIES 762011 AND 762091 250 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.487 SERIES 762011 AND 762072 263 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1560. 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. CORR 1. 3. 6. 10. 28. 45. 45. 55. 171. 300. RBAR 0.375 0.235 0.354 0.266 0.149 0.172 0.187 0.260 0.194 0.215 SDEV 0.000 0.288 0.163 0.163 0.299 0.198 0.152 0.172 0.192 0.183 SERR 0.000 0.166 0.067 0.051 0.056 0.029 0.023 0.023 0.015 0.011 EPS 0.613 0.536 0.750 0.734 0.619 0.678 0.736 0.867 0.852 0.873 NSS 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.6 9.3 10.1 12.1 18.5 24.0 25.1 YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.209 0.154 0.134 0.132 0.134 0.197 SDEV 0.182 0.200 0.240 0.243 0.250 0.209 SERR 0.010 0.011 0.013 0.014 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.871 0.826 0.800 0.798 0.801 0.865 NSS 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 0.996 0.033 0.286 3.138 0.032 0.250 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.146 0.089 -0.038 138 342 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.19 0.43 1.00 1.05 1.48 18.87 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.249 0.306 0.248 0.196 0.184 0.114 0.189 0.101 0.168 0.094 PACF 0.249 0.260 0.145 0.061 0.053 -0.015 0.097 -0.005 0.077 -0.013 95% C.L. 0.091 0.097 0.105 0.109 0.112 0.115 0.116 0.118 0.119 0.121 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.147 0.147 0.233 0.145 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.254 0.303 0.322 0.238 0.149 0.177 0.196 0.082 0.137 0.127 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.254 2 0.189 0.255 3 0.131 0.211 0.229 4 0.111 0.192 0.217 0.089 5 0.114 0.200 0.224 0.093 -0.034 6 0.114 0.197 0.218 0.087 -0.036 0.026 7 0.112 0.201 0.211 0.069 -0.053 0.016 0.086 8 0.116 0.201 0.208 0.071 -0.045 0.024 0.090 -0.040 9 0.117 0.198 0.208 0.073 -0.047 0.017 0.084 -0.044 0.032 10 0.116 0.199 0.205 0.072 -0.046 0.015 0.078 -0.050 0.029 0.028 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2383.79 2353.82 2323.65 2299.80 2298.00 2299.46 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2301.14 2299.59 2300.80 2302.30 2303.92 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 4 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.111 0.192 0.217 0.089 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 17.75 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 121.58 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 4) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.111 0.205 0.261 0.181 0.125 0.124 0.100 0.078 0.066 0.0551 0.045 0.037 0.030 0.025 0.021 0.017 0.014 0.012 0.009 0.0078 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.0011 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 762011 4 0.420 0.329 0.199 0.106 0.154 2 762012 4 0.278 0.318 0.259 0.034 0.021 3 762021 4 0.403 0.398 0.150 0.209 -0.024 4 762022 4 0.106 0.278 0.049 0.031 0.042 5 762031 4 0.364 0.386 0.191 0.118 0.020 6 762032 4 0.259 0.272 0.182 0.142 0.067 7 762041 4 0.338 0.331 0.213 0.112 0.059 8 762042 4 0.381 0.426 0.225 -0.052 0.118 9 762051 4 0.152 0.243 0.184 0.114 -0.055 10 762052 4 0.147 0.305 0.104 0.013 0.076 11 762061 4 0.117 0.270 0.077 0.079 0.021 12 762062 4 0.190 0.233 0.103 0.157 0.123 13 762071 4 0.329 0.388 0.161 0.067 0.082 14 762072 4 0.451 0.454 0.034 0.267 0.020 15 762081 4 0.202 0.269 0.217 0.098 -0.032 16 762082 4 0.357 0.437 0.058 0.142 0.080 17 762091 4 0.462 0.488 0.235 -0.007 0.033 18 762092 4 0.259 0.425 0.028 0.068 0.097 19 762101 4 0.134 0.209 0.226 0.061 -0.040 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 762102 4 0.279 0.372 0.261 -0.062 0.031 21 762111 4 0.257 0.328 0.166 0.181 -0.067 22 762112 4 0.205 0.306 0.112 0.094 0.083 23 762121 4 0.273 0.368 0.130 0.046 0.112 24 762122 4 0.150 0.225 0.172 0.169 -0.103 25 762131 4 0.544 0.391 0.246 0.122 0.078 26 762132 4 0.337 0.321 0.280 0.009 0.079 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 4 0.284 0.337 0.164 0.089 0.041 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.118 0.076 0.074 0.077 0.064 MEDIAN 4 0.276 0.328 0.177 0.096 0.051 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.174 0.119 0.121 0.108 0.062 MINIMUM VALUE 4 0.106 0.209 0.028 -0.062 -0.103 LOWER HINGE 4 0.190 0.272 0.104 0.034 0.020 UPPER HINGE 4 0.364 0.391 0.225 0.142 0.082 MAXIMUM VALUE 4 0.544 0.488 0.280 0.267 0.154 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.059 0.978 5.210 0.064 -0.009 2 762012 1579 1983 405 1.000 0.058 2.577 25.351 0.056 -0.002 3 762021 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.052 0.492 4.083 0.057 -0.004 4 762022 1559 1983 425 1.000 0.066 2.806 27.395 0.061 -0.004 5 762031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.058 1.760 10.096 0.062 -0.009 6 762032 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.061 1.134 5.733 0.063 -0.004 7 762041 1510 1983 474 1.000 0.048 0.803 5.825 0.051 -0.002 8 762042 1504 1983 480 1.000 0.056 0.937 7.320 0.059 -0.005 9 762051 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.046 0.828 5.536 0.049 -0.002 10 762052 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.039 0.767 5.827 0.041 -0.001 11 762061 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.059 0.213 3.497 0.067 -0.002 12 762062 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.064 0.463 3.743 0.070 0.001 13 762071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.055 0.391 3.215 0.063 -0.001 14 762072 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.055 0.590 5.645 0.058 -0.003 15 762081 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.053 1.369 9.497 0.052 0.002 16 762082 1705 1983 279 1.000 0.052 1.154 7.807 0.056 -0.007 17 762091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.049 0.420 4.704 0.053 -0.001 18 762092 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.045 -0.136 3.669 0.050 -0.011 19 762101 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.043 0.594 4.536 0.047 -0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.044 0.372 2.963 0.050 -0.003 21 762111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.049 1.200 7.443 0.051 -0.002 22 762112 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.057 1.493 9.273 0.056 0.006 23 762121 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.049 0.568 4.201 0.053 -0.006 24 762122 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.050 0.473 3.692 0.054 -0.004 25 762131 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.045 0.209 3.312 0.051 -0.003 26 762132 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.048 0.679 4.498 0.054 -0.015 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 1.000 0.052 0.890 7.080 0.056 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.007 0.684 6.030 0.007 0.004 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 1.000 0.052 0.723 5.373 0.055 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.000 0.010 0.691 3.700 0.010 0.003 MINIMUM VALUE 177 1.000 0.039 -0.136 2.963 0.041 -0.015 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 1.000 0.048 0.463 3.743 0.051 -0.005 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 1.000 0.058 1.154 7.443 0.061 -0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 1.000 0.066 2.806 27.395 0.070 0.006 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.212 0.087 0.005 -0.083 3.146 -0.060 0.475 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.060 SERIES 762062 AND 762111 247 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.475 SERIES 762091 AND 762092 177 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1560. 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. CORR 1. 3. 6. 10. 28. 45. 45. 55. 171. 300. RBAR 0.451 0.220 0.406 0.337 0.227 0.193 0.227 0.277 0.263 0.247 SDEV 0.000 0.225 0.120 0.168 0.165 0.157 0.127 0.140 0.141 0.141 SERR 0.000 0.130 0.049 0.053 0.031 0.023 0.019 0.019 0.011 0.008 EPS 0.685 0.514 0.789 0.795 0.732 0.707 0.781 0.876 0.895 0.892 NSS 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.6 9.3 10.1 12.1 18.5 24.0 25.1 YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.212 0.216 0.192 0.195 0.185 0.231 SDEV 0.144 0.158 0.160 0.154 0.156 0.175 SERR 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.873 0.878 0.861 0.863 0.855 0.886 NSS 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 0.997 0.030 0.330 3.283 0.038 -0.221 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.123 0.064 -0.026 169 311 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.32 0.66 1.00 1.11 1.77 69.88 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.220 0.018 -0.001 -0.061 0.011 -0.042 0.097 -0.017 0.089 -0.014 PACF -0.220 -0.032 -0.004 -0.065 -0.018 -0.047 0.081 0.019 0.095 0.025 95% C.L. 0.091 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.096 0.097 0.097 0.098 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.050 -0.221 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 -0.003 0.005 -0.004 -0.019 -0.020 0.095 0.018 0.092 0.003 PACF -0.001 -0.003 0.005 -0.004 -0.019 -0.020 0.095 0.019 0.094 0.002 95% C.L. 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.092 0.092 0.093 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.000 -0.001 -0.003 0.005 -0.004 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 0.997 0.033 0.244 2.983 0.032 0.271 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.271 0.315 0.346 0.267 0.200 0.185 0.235 0.144 0.183 0.108 PACF 0.271 0.261 0.246 0.106 0.004 -0.002 0.097 0.000 0.054 -0.049 95% C.L. 0.091 0.098 0.106 0.115 0.120 0.123 0.125 0.129 0.130 0.132 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.199 0.109 0.190 0.232 0.107 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.32 MINUTES