RUN: OR001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: OR043L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: OR043L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 762 1 Barlow Pass, am Mt.Hood WIDTH_LATE PSME - 762 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 1300 4519-12139 1504 19 762 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 762011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 2 GAPS / 1672 1673 / 1932 1936 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 762021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1844 1849 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 762022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 11 IN 2 GAPS / 1954 1958 / 1973 1978 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 762041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 4 GAPS / 1627 1631 / 1649 1649 / 1655 1655 / 1704 1704 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 762042 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1924 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 762051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 15 IN 3 GAPS / 1888 1892 / 1922 1926 / 1961 1965 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 762052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1977 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 762061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 1 GAPS / 1938 1945 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 762062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1972 1972 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 762132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1923 1927 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 0.255 0.188 1.484 5.050 0.233 0.859 2 762012 1579 1983 405 0.201 0.091 0.779 3.232 0.243 0.718 3 762021 1625 1983 359 0.146 0.065 1.044 4.142 0.221 0.741 4 762022 1559 1983 425 0.189 0.120 1.062 3.701 0.213 0.860 5 762031 1741 1983 243 0.174 0.110 3.221 15.719 0.266 0.696 6 762032 1625 1983 359 0.150 0.078 2.559 12.914 0.249 0.679 7 762041 1510 1983 474 0.137 0.084 2.322 10.349 0.178 0.892 8 762042 1504 1983 480 0.138 0.113 2.902 12.577 0.194 0.906 9 762051 1745 1983 239 0.152 0.163 4.725 29.435 0.202 0.891 10 762052 1750 1983 234 0.157 0.088 2.749 14.506 0.210 0.768 11 762061 1729 1983 255 0.178 0.101 0.468 2.326 0.195 0.863 12 762062 1654 1983 330 0.188 0.128 0.914 3.542 0.226 0.844 13 762071 1711 1983 273 0.273 0.232 1.873 6.354 0.206 0.928 14 762072 1721 1983 263 0.292 0.170 2.389 12.049 0.252 0.816 15 762081 1733 1983 251 0.329 0.161 4.722 41.654 0.229 0.489 16 762082 1705 1983 279 0.250 0.118 0.908 3.438 0.170 0.868 17 762091 1734 1983 250 0.284 0.131 1.254 4.790 0.168 0.827 18 762092 1807 1983 177 0.240 0.071 0.660 3.824 0.182 0.653 19 762101 1720 1983 264 0.341 0.218 2.517 11.243 0.194 0.861 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 0.344 0.230 2.099 8.089 0.180 0.873 21 762111 1737 1983 247 0.286 0.130 3.024 20.020 0.224 0.533 22 762112 1734 1983 250 0.230 0.140 2.559 13.289 0.242 0.684 23 762121 1742 1983 242 0.333 0.141 1.157 4.926 0.195 0.761 24 762122 1746 1983 238 0.267 0.146 2.256 8.930 0.193 0.792 25 762131 1652 1983 332 0.195 0.110 2.061 9.266 0.190 0.806 26 762132 1613 1983 371 0.146 0.081 1.502 5.023 0.198 0.831 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1504 TO 1983 480 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 301 0.226 0.131 2.047 10.400 0.210 0.786 STANDARD DEVIATION 78 0.069 0.047 1.123 8.907 0.027 0.111 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 0.216 0.124 2.080 8.510 0.204 0.822 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.127 0.070 1.497 8.771 0.036 0.145 MINIMUM VALUE 177 0.137 0.065 0.468 2.326 0.168 0.489 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 0.157 0.091 1.062 4.142 0.193 0.718 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 0.284 0.161 2.559 12.914 0.229 0.863 MAXIMUM VALUE 475 0.344 0.232 4.725 41.654 0.266 0.928 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.390 0.278 0.015 -0.500 2.466 -0.409 0.892 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.409 SERIES 762031 AND 762092 177 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.892 SERIES 762101 AND 762102 263 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1560. 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. CORR 1. 3. 6. 10. 28. 45. 45. 55. 171. 300. RBAR 0.801 0.393 0.513 0.209 0.261 0.384 0.320 0.325 0.375 0.434 SDEV 0.000 0.074 0.151 0.341 0.241 0.192 0.255 0.234 0.194 0.213 SERR 0.000 0.043 0.062 0.108 0.046 0.029 0.038 0.032 0.015 0.012 EPS 0.914 0.709 0.852 0.669 0.766 0.863 0.851 0.899 0.935 0.951 NSS 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.6 9.3 10.1 12.1 18.5 24.0 25.1 YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.278 0.195 0.207 0.246 0.211 0.113 SDEV 0.243 0.316 0.328 0.250 0.245 0.260 SERR 0.014 0.018 0.018 0.014 0.014 0.014 EPS 0.908 0.863 0.872 0.894 0.874 0.767 NSS 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 0.230 0.095 2.010 9.260 0.155 0.842 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.269 0.164 0.068 155 325 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.46 1.26 1.00 1.14 2.40 12.12 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.14 0.00 0.86 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 264. 112. 177. 247. 359. 480. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.841 0.801 0.723 0.670 0.632 0.593 0.583 0.561 0.537 0.515 PACF 0.841 0.321 -0.014 0.008 0.072 0.027 0.099 0.036 -0.017 0.006 95% C.L. 0.091 0.142 0.175 0.199 0.217 0.232 0.244 0.255 0.265 0.274 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.778 0.495 0.337 0.088 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 762011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00128147 0.49881956 2 762012 1 0.26837096 0.00493974 0.00000000 0.08568297 3 762021 1 0.19572133 0.00703116 0.00000000 0.07366773 4 762022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00077556 0.35061559 5 762031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00027700 0.13986804 6 762032 1 0.13412242 0.01147290 0.00000000 0.11837472 7 762041 1 0.40456724 0.03169884 0.00000000 0.10855452 8 762042 1 0.54695284 0.02397791 0.00000000 0.09045040 9 762051 1 0.60786575 0.03842986 0.00000000 0.08198143 10 762052 1 0.26315051 0.02222885 0.00000000 0.10556804 11 762061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00117690 0.32498208 12 762062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00109360 0.36812249 13 762071 1 0.87530786 0.01858497 0.00000000 0.10353666 14 762072 1 0.66671604 0.03333220 0.00000000 0.21731175 15 762081 1 0.22663306 0.05197375 0.00000000 0.31235814 16 762082 1 0.36474338 0.01007301 0.00000000 0.12826443 17 762091 1 0.41993448 0.01464654 0.00000000 0.17344436 18 762092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00083543 0.31390089 19 762101 1 1.23659563 0.07133748 0.00000000 0.27786645 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 762102 1 0.90277219 0.02575987 0.00000000 0.21279314 21 762111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00043590 0.34008393 22 762112 1 0.32608455 0.00798476 0.00000000 0.08920118 23 762121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00092097 0.44512156 24 762122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00042989 0.21589725 25 762131 1 0.31238249 0.00739372 0.00000000 0.07880011 26 762132 1 0.23804310 0.00587703 0.00000000 0.04773648 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 1.344 1.664 4.891 30.431 0.235 0.864 2 762012 1579 1983 405 1.001 0.340 1.059 4.882 0.243 0.442 3 762021 1625 1983 359 1.001 0.291 0.414 3.751 0.221 0.510 4 762022 1559 1983 425 1.058 0.438 1.353 6.385 0.213 0.704 5 762031 1741 1983 243 1.004 0.674 3.996 22.598 0.265 0.741 6 762032 1625 1983 359 0.999 0.427 1.756 7.947 0.248 0.557 7 762041 1510 1983 474 0.999 0.390 0.783 3.596 0.178 0.818 8 762042 1504 1983 480 0.999 0.320 0.981 4.998 0.193 0.647 9 762051 1745 1983 239 1.002 0.322 1.210 6.032 0.196 0.599 10 762052 1750 1983 234 0.999 0.347 2.112 10.516 0.206 0.614 11 762061 1729 1983 255 1.016 0.297 0.617 4.415 0.193 0.657 12 762062 1654 1983 330 1.067 0.535 3.971 27.353 0.229 0.661 13 762071 1711 1983 273 0.999 0.305 1.093 4.836 0.206 0.554 14 762072 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.350 1.341 5.785 0.251 0.535 15 762081 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.430 2.721 16.999 0.228 0.489 16 762082 1705 1983 279 1.000 0.325 1.209 6.549 0.170 0.734 17 762091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.270 -0.015 3.858 0.167 0.622 18 762092 1807 1983 177 0.999 0.232 0.332 2.628 0.181 0.505 19 762101 1720 1983 264 1.001 0.395 0.887 4.151 0.192 0.745 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 0.998 0.326 1.902 9.153 0.180 0.615 21 762111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.436 2.695 16.181 0.224 0.526 22 762112 1734 1983 250 0.999 0.475 3.030 20.474 0.241 0.532 23 762121 1742 1983 242 0.998 0.379 1.146 4.222 0.195 0.700 24 762122 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.502 1.846 7.318 0.192 0.777 25 762131 1652 1983 332 1.003 0.323 1.038 6.230 0.190 0.649 26 762132 1613 1983 371 1.003 0.365 1.099 3.985 0.196 0.719 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 1.019 0.429 1.672 9.434 0.209 0.635 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.069 0.269 1.215 7.838 0.027 0.109 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 1.000 0.358 1.209 6.131 0.201 0.635 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.004 0.114 1.131 6.295 0.037 0.184 MINIMUM VALUE 177 0.998 0.232 -0.015 2.628 0.167 0.442 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 0.999 0.322 0.981 4.222 0.192 0.535 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 1.003 0.436 2.112 10.516 0.229 0.719 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 1.344 1.664 4.891 30.431 0.265 0.864 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 762011 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 762012 -67 271 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 762021 -67 240 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 762022 -67 284 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 762031 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 762032 -67 240 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 762041 -67 317 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 762042 -67 321 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 762051 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 762052 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 762061 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 762062 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 762071 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 762072 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 762081 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 762082 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 762091 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 762092 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 762101 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 762102 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 762111 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 762112 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 762121 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 762122 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 762131 -67 222 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 762132 -67 248 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 1.017 0.423 1.442 7.134 0.235 0.590 2 762012 1579 1983 405 0.995 0.295 1.100 5.814 0.243 0.283 3 762021 1625 1983 359 0.996 0.269 0.444 3.650 0.221 0.435 4 762022 1559 1983 425 0.996 0.367 1.791 9.783 0.213 0.614 5 762031 1741 1983 243 0.988 0.425 2.593 12.897 0.265 0.563 6 762032 1625 1983 359 0.993 0.354 1.523 7.749 0.248 0.465 7 762041 1510 1983 474 0.992 0.364 0.928 3.796 0.178 0.797 8 762042 1504 1983 480 0.996 0.294 1.319 9.106 0.193 0.579 9 762051 1745 1983 239 0.997 0.292 1.653 10.331 0.197 0.527 10 762052 1750 1983 234 0.996 0.325 2.034 10.017 0.207 0.576 11 762061 1729 1983 255 0.994 0.249 0.050 3.069 0.193 0.551 12 762062 1654 1983 330 0.989 0.317 1.181 6.410 0.228 0.502 13 762071 1711 1983 273 0.999 0.298 1.143 5.143 0.206 0.544 14 762072 1721 1983 263 0.999 0.349 1.512 6.573 0.251 0.522 15 762081 1733 1983 251 0.994 0.390 3.319 24.007 0.228 0.422 16 762082 1705 1983 279 0.993 0.291 1.053 5.671 0.170 0.686 17 762091 1734 1983 250 0.996 0.258 0.233 3.070 0.167 0.596 18 762092 1807 1983 177 0.997 0.217 0.454 2.721 0.181 0.444 19 762101 1720 1983 264 0.996 0.290 1.024 4.946 0.193 0.580 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 0.997 0.270 1.553 8.373 0.180 0.508 21 762111 1737 1983 247 0.998 0.429 2.692 16.284 0.224 0.520 22 762112 1734 1983 250 0.997 0.460 3.001 20.126 0.241 0.521 23 762121 1742 1983 242 0.994 0.345 1.135 4.315 0.195 0.665 24 762122 1746 1983 238 0.978 0.370 1.417 6.162 0.193 0.686 25 762131 1652 1983 332 0.994 0.268 1.212 8.394 0.190 0.506 26 762132 1613 1983 371 0.995 0.312 0.815 4.225 0.196 0.626 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 0.995 0.328 1.408 8.068 0.209 0.550 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.006 0.062 0.804 5.243 0.027 0.101 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 0.996 0.315 1.265 6.492 0.201 0.548 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.004 0.076 0.629 5.469 0.035 0.090 MINIMUM VALUE 177 0.978 0.217 0.050 2.721 0.167 0.283 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 0.994 0.290 1.024 4.315 0.193 0.506 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 0.997 0.367 1.653 9.783 0.228 0.596 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 1.017 0.460 3.319 24.007 0.265 0.797 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.202 0.153 0.008 0.266 3.021 -0.187 0.692 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.187 SERIES 762082 AND 762132 279 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.692 SERIES 762091 AND 762092 177 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1560. 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. CORR 1. 3. 6. 10. 28. 45. 45. 55. 171. 300. RBAR 0.610 0.328 0.396 0.200 0.314 0.343 0.362 0.296 0.352 0.387 SDEV 0.000 0.106 0.164 0.365 0.217 0.192 0.211 0.195 0.187 0.204 SERR 0.000 0.061 0.067 0.116 0.041 0.029 0.032 0.026 0.014 0.012 EPS 0.805 0.647 0.782 0.656 0.810 0.841 0.873 0.886 0.929 0.941 NSS 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.6 9.3 10.1 12.1 18.5 24.0 25.1 YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.309 0.193 0.196 0.273 0.226 0.131 SDEV 0.233 0.300 0.293 0.223 0.215 0.243 SERR 0.013 0.017 0.016 0.012 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.920 0.862 0.864 0.907 0.883 0.796 NSS 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 0.978 0.182 0.550 4.213 0.142 0.509 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.346 0.207 0.031 146 334 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 0.70 1.00 1.11 1.80 10.55 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.508 0.399 0.312 0.226 0.171 0.082 0.106 0.086 0.072 0.045 PACF 0.508 0.189 0.072 0.001 0.004 -0.065 0.067 0.018 0.009 -0.023 95% C.L. 0.091 0.112 0.124 0.130 0.133 0.135 0.136 0.136 0.137 0.137 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.289 0.399 0.158 0.074 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.454 0.363 0.269 0.214 0.109 -0.029 0.014 -0.026 -0.093 -0.097 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.454 2 0.364 0.198 3 0.352 0.175 0.061 4 0.350 0.169 0.048 0.037 5 0.352 0.172 0.059 0.058 -0.061 6 0.343 0.181 0.067 0.084 -0.008 -0.150 7 0.351 0.181 0.063 0.080 -0.017 -0.168 0.052 8 0.352 0.179 0.063 0.081 -0.016 -0.167 0.056 -0.010 9 0.351 0.184 0.049 0.080 -0.010 -0.161 0.070 0.019 -0.082 10 0.350 0.184 0.050 0.077 -0.010 -0.160 0.071 0.022 -0.077 -0.014 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 4034.12 3925.17 3908.02 3908.22 3909.58 3909.81 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3900.82 3901.51 3903.46 3902.19 3904.09 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.364 0.198 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 23.74 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 131.13 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.364 0.331 0.193 0.136 0.087 0.059 0.039 0.026 0.017 0.0113 0.007 0.005 0.003 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 762011 2 0.438 0.413 0.316 2 762012 2 0.115 0.231 0.192 3 762021 2 0.237 0.350 0.198 4 762022 2 0.438 0.423 0.311 5 762031 2 0.357 0.442 0.222 6 762032 2 0.274 0.363 0.229 7 762041 2 0.680 0.526 0.340 8 762042 2 0.360 0.484 0.169 9 762051 2 0.303 0.470 0.120 10 762052 2 0.365 0.608 -0.055 11 762061 2 0.355 0.461 0.165 12 762062 2 0.360 0.399 0.244 13 762071 2 0.337 0.455 0.167 14 762072 2 0.291 0.444 0.150 15 762081 2 0.194 0.364 0.137 16 762082 2 0.522 0.563 0.188 17 762091 2 0.443 0.409 0.321 18 762092 2 0.237 0.381 0.144 19 762101 2 0.338 0.570 0.018 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 762102 2 0.274 0.495 0.038 21 762111 2 0.311 0.415 0.211 22 762112 2 0.291 0.442 0.154 23 762121 2 0.461 0.544 0.183 24 762122 2 0.488 0.605 0.119 25 762131 2 0.291 0.433 0.148 26 762132 2 0.429 0.533 0.149 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.353 0.455 0.176 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.115 0.086 0.091 MEDIAN 2 0.347 0.443 0.168 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.147 0.117 0.078 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.115 0.231 -0.055 LOWER HINGE 2 0.291 0.409 0.144 UPPER HINGE 2 0.438 0.526 0.222 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.680 0.608 0.340 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.319 1.928 14.150 0.304 -0.029 2 762012 1579 1983 405 1.000 0.277 1.257 7.102 0.268 0.004 3 762021 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.237 0.350 4.328 0.268 -0.027 4 762022 1559 1983 425 1.000 0.275 1.341 9.057 0.265 0.002 5 762031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.341 2.081 10.241 0.323 0.008 6 762032 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.304 1.281 7.240 0.306 -0.025 7 762041 1510 1983 474 1.000 0.207 0.339 4.754 0.229 -0.028 8 762042 1504 1983 480 1.000 0.236 1.019 7.451 0.246 -0.008 9 762051 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.244 1.831 11.924 0.253 -0.017 10 762052 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.265 1.587 8.811 0.272 0.012 11 762061 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.205 -0.034 4.096 0.241 -0.035 12 762062 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.261 0.777 5.183 0.275 -0.030 13 762071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.246 1.052 5.318 0.258 -0.028 14 762072 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.294 1.187 6.084 0.311 -0.009 15 762081 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.350 4.811 43.676 0.267 0.003 16 762082 1705 1983 279 1.000 0.206 0.971 7.036 0.220 -0.041 17 762091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.195 0.369 3.699 0.207 -0.041 18 762092 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.192 0.320 2.657 0.212 -0.024 19 762101 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.236 1.267 7.199 0.250 -0.001 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.231 1.855 10.195 0.228 -0.002 21 762111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.355 4.609 39.526 0.275 -0.014 22 762112 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.387 4.227 32.151 0.297 0.005 23 762121 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.253 1.173 5.863 0.267 -0.001 24 762122 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.267 2.895 18.132 0.241 -0.017 25 762131 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.228 1.443 9.578 0.234 -0.025 26 762132 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.241 0.702 5.312 0.254 -0.030 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 1.000 0.263 1.563 11.183 0.260 -0.015 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.052 1.275 10.727 0.030 0.016 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 1.000 0.250 1.262 7.219 0.261 -0.017 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.000 0.064 1.078 4.930 0.033 0.028 MINIMUM VALUE 177 1.000 0.192 -0.034 2.657 0.207 -0.041 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 1.000 0.231 0.777 5.312 0.241 -0.028 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 1.000 0.294 1.855 10.241 0.275 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 1.000 0.387 4.811 43.676 0.323 0.012 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.240 0.118 0.007 0.632 3.787 -0.022 0.688 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.022 SERIES 762061 AND 762112 250 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.688 SERIES 762111 AND 762112 247 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1560. 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. CORR 1. 3. 6. 10. 28. 45. 45. 55. 171. 300. RBAR 0.514 0.421 0.339 0.239 0.286 0.371 0.420 0.351 0.308 0.293 SDEV 0.000 0.127 0.132 0.149 0.121 0.142 0.160 0.166 0.189 0.179 SERR 0.000 0.073 0.054 0.047 0.023 0.021 0.024 0.022 0.014 0.010 EPS 0.737 0.732 0.738 0.706 0.788 0.856 0.898 0.909 0.914 0.912 NSS 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.6 9.3 10.1 12.1 18.5 24.0 25.1 YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.285 0.314 0.281 0.272 0.251 0.186 SDEV 0.214 0.201 0.209 0.189 0.161 0.166 SERR 0.012 0.011 0.012 0.011 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.911 0.922 0.910 0.907 0.897 0.856 NSS 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 0.989 0.147 0.615 4.664 0.167 -0.058 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.347 0.203 -0.025 161 319 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.39 0.93 1.00 1.13 2.06 35.53 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.058 -0.049 0.051 -0.001 0.035 -0.070 0.041 0.040 -0.001 0.008 PACF -0.058 -0.052 0.046 0.003 0.040 -0.069 0.037 0.034 0.014 0.007 95% C.L. 0.091 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.003 0.048 -0.002 0.035 -0.064 0.041 0.040 0.006 0.016 PACF 0.002 0.003 0.047 -0.002 0.035 -0.067 0.042 0.036 0.012 0.010 95% C.L. 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 0.002 0.003 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 0.988 0.170 0.569 4.244 0.138 0.476 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.475 0.388 0.276 0.180 0.147 0.065 0.097 0.083 0.058 0.048 PACF 0.475 0.211 0.042 -0.022 0.022 -0.049 0.067 0.028 -0.013 -0.007 95% C.L. 0.091 0.110 0.121 0.126 0.128 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.131 0.131 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.261 0.375 0.211 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.43 MINUTES