RUN: OR001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: OR043W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: OR043W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 762 1 Barlow Pass, am Mt.Hood WIDTH_RING PSME - 762 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 1300 4519-12139 1504 19 762 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 762011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1672 1673 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 762041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1649 1649 / 1655 1655 / 1704 1704 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 762062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1972 1972 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 0.783 0.484 0.822 2.840 0.189 0.898 2 762012 1579 1983 405 0.778 0.282 0.524 3.033 0.169 0.826 3 762021 1625 1983 359 0.683 0.306 0.656 3.064 0.207 0.823 4 762022 1559 1983 425 0.721 0.464 0.832 3.092 0.208 0.921 5 762031 1741 1983 243 0.672 0.271 1.523 6.947 0.192 0.786 6 762032 1625 1983 359 0.670 0.275 1.525 6.481 0.174 0.842 7 762041 1510 1983 474 0.672 0.459 1.884 7.827 0.164 0.935 8 762042 1504 1983 480 0.632 0.468 2.545 11.521 0.171 0.925 9 762051 1745 1983 239 0.609 0.507 3.905 25.784 0.195 0.898 10 762052 1750 1983 234 0.630 0.263 1.375 5.982 0.153 0.852 11 762061 1729 1983 255 0.551 0.308 0.275 2.142 0.182 0.892 12 762062 1654 1983 330 0.649 0.441 0.321 1.905 0.192 0.927 13 762071 1711 1983 273 1.042 0.834 1.813 5.535 0.151 0.967 14 762072 1721 1983 263 1.035 0.633 1.766 5.925 0.186 0.923 15 762081 1733 1983 251 1.137 0.335 1.349 6.943 0.150 0.756 16 762082 1705 1983 279 0.920 0.510 1.554 5.154 0.136 0.937 17 762091 1734 1983 250 1.195 0.622 1.362 4.634 0.123 0.939 18 762092 1807 1983 177 0.943 0.241 0.023 3.790 0.113 0.802 19 762101 1720 1983 264 0.954 0.528 2.488 10.878 0.132 0.901 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 0.983 0.675 2.770 11.808 0.117 0.914 21 762111 1737 1983 247 0.738 0.262 1.306 5.776 0.171 0.748 22 762112 1734 1983 250 0.577 0.309 1.712 6.355 0.180 0.856 23 762121 1742 1983 242 1.019 0.342 0.419 2.782 0.133 0.860 24 762122 1746 1983 238 0.907 0.373 1.180 3.808 0.153 0.885 25 762131 1652 1983 332 0.927 0.422 0.878 3.037 0.165 0.887 26 762132 1613 1983 371 0.706 0.373 0.879 2.926 0.175 0.922 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1504 TO 1983 480 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 0.813 0.423 1.373 6.153 0.165 0.878 STANDARD DEVIATION 79 0.185 0.150 0.876 4.870 0.027 0.059 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 0.758 0.398 1.356 5.345 0.170 0.895 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.284 0.201 0.944 3.906 0.036 0.080 MINIMUM VALUE 177 0.551 0.241 0.023 1.905 0.113 0.748 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 0.670 0.306 0.822 3.037 0.150 0.842 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 0.954 0.507 1.766 6.943 0.186 0.923 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 1.195 0.834 3.905 25.784 0.208 0.967 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.423 0.319 0.018 -0.653 2.604 -0.545 0.942 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.545 SERIES 762031 AND 762092 177 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.942 SERIES 762071 AND 762072 263 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1560. 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. CORR 1. 3. 6. 10. 28. 45. 45. 55. 171. 300. RBAR 0.845 0.473 0.656 0.243 0.217 0.373 0.445 0.323 0.378 0.562 SDEV 0.000 0.094 0.131 0.338 0.328 0.239 0.206 0.254 0.243 0.215 SERR 0.000 0.054 0.054 0.107 0.062 0.036 0.031 0.034 0.019 0.012 EPS 0.935 0.771 0.913 0.710 0.720 0.857 0.907 0.899 0.936 0.970 NSS 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.6 9.3 10.1 12.1 18.5 24.0 25.1 YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.395 0.240 0.237 0.239 0.197 0.119 SDEV 0.227 0.321 0.350 0.288 0.330 0.325 SERR 0.013 0.018 0.019 0.016 0.018 0.018 EPS 0.943 0.892 0.890 0.891 0.865 0.778 NSS 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 0.927 0.428 2.186 10.167 0.122 0.915 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.116 0.049 0.294 143 337 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.59 1.00 1.13 1.72 4.57 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 264. 112. 177. 247. 359. 480. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.913 0.868 0.808 0.759 0.715 0.683 0.678 0.646 0.631 0.609 PACF 0.913 0.204 -0.055 0.010 0.024 0.064 0.190 -0.099 0.025 0.016 95% C.L. 0.091 0.149 0.186 0.214 0.235 0.253 0.268 0.281 0.294 0.305 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.887 0.619 0.337 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 762011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00365762 1.48491240 2 762012 1 0.76713419 0.00654894 0.00000000 0.50969672 3 762021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00201735 1.04604757 4 762022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00313050 1.38790262 5 762031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00155928 0.48219636 6 762032 1 0.47713763 0.01141017 0.00000000 0.55583888 7 762041 1 2.12740541 0.02981432 0.00000000 0.52060461 8 762042 1 2.07131553 0.01997057 0.00000000 0.41813731 9 762051 1 1.70172477 0.02290772 0.00000000 0.30305135 10 762052 1 0.77792805 0.01201246 0.00000000 0.37166694 11 762061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00369365 1.02396393 12 762062 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 762071 1 3.44363928 0.02214349 0.00000000 0.48031187 14 762072 1 2.59597492 0.02616085 0.00000000 0.66282022 15 762081 1 0.54275864 0.07719746 0.00000000 1.11038721 16 762082 1 1.90894234 0.02078795 0.00000000 0.59558094 17 762091 1 2.06549644 0.01739627 0.00000000 0.73048240 18 762092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00321584 1.22892141 19 762101 1 2.91982913 0.06601071 0.00000000 0.79167366 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 762102 1 3.35283732 0.04225221 0.00000000 0.68735617 21 762111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00127301 0.89546460 22 762112 1 0.79605210 0.01389428 0.00000000 0.35652477 23 762121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00205653 1.26895893 24 762122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00145561 0.73311353 25 762131 1 1.37377214 0.00484567 0.00000000 0.24530260 26 762132 1 1.19654095 0.00637269 0.00000000 0.24887705 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 1.122 0.748 3.518 17.689 0.190 0.890 2 762012 1579 1983 405 1.000 0.278 0.425 3.473 0.169 0.700 3 762021 1625 1983 359 1.008 0.333 0.156 3.266 0.206 0.710 4 762022 1559 1983 425 1.064 0.442 1.580 9.246 0.208 0.714 5 762031 1741 1983 243 1.005 0.390 1.559 6.167 0.191 0.793 6 762032 1625 1983 359 0.999 0.344 0.833 4.148 0.174 0.768 7 762041 1510 1983 474 0.999 0.464 0.405 2.675 0.164 0.905 8 762042 1504 1983 480 0.999 0.358 0.810 3.841 0.171 0.828 9 762051 1745 1983 239 0.996 0.301 1.191 7.482 0.194 0.635 10 762052 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.269 1.074 4.569 0.152 0.713 11 762061 1729 1983 255 0.999 0.252 0.282 4.109 0.182 0.612 12 762062 1654 1983 330 1.040 0.357 2.066 12.202 0.192 0.642 13 762071 1711 1983 273 0.999 0.233 0.275 3.640 0.151 0.636 14 762072 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.278 0.682 4.218 0.185 0.639 15 762081 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.280 0.864 3.961 0.149 0.748 16 762082 1705 1983 279 1.001 0.284 0.628 3.879 0.135 0.804 17 762091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.293 -0.160 4.145 0.122 0.849 18 762092 1807 1983 177 0.998 0.192 -0.250 2.729 0.112 0.695 19 762101 1720 1983 264 1.001 0.324 0.567 3.347 0.130 0.828 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 0.999 0.266 1.091 4.561 0.117 0.798 21 762111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.332 1.075 4.090 0.170 0.728 22 762112 1734 1983 250 0.999 0.377 1.551 8.638 0.179 0.745 23 762121 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.314 0.574 2.615 0.133 0.842 24 762122 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.378 0.766 3.018 0.152 0.863 25 762131 1652 1983 332 1.002 0.297 0.219 2.505 0.165 0.765 26 762132 1613 1983 371 1.002 0.334 0.418 2.950 0.175 0.812 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 1.009 0.335 0.854 5.122 0.164 0.756 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.027 0.104 0.774 3.462 0.027 0.084 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 1.000 0.319 0.724 4.025 0.169 0.757 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.003 0.080 0.686 1.303 0.036 0.127 MINIMUM VALUE 177 0.996 0.192 -0.250 2.505 0.112 0.612 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 0.999 0.278 0.405 3.266 0.149 0.700 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 1.002 0.358 1.091 4.569 0.185 0.828 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 1.122 0.748 3.518 17.689 0.208 0.905 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 762011 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 762012 -67 271 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 762021 -67 240 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 762022 -67 284 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 762031 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 762032 -67 240 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 762041 -67 317 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 762042 -67 321 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 762051 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 762052 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 762061 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 762062 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 762071 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 762072 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 762081 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 762082 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 762091 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 762092 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 762101 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 762102 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 762111 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 762112 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 762121 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 762122 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 762131 -67 222 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 762132 -67 248 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 0.990 0.305 0.558 3.268 0.189 0.672 2 762012 1579 1983 405 0.995 0.237 0.097 3.360 0.168 0.604 3 762021 1625 1983 359 0.992 0.292 0.128 3.192 0.206 0.641 4 762022 1559 1983 425 0.993 0.329 0.620 3.979 0.208 0.670 5 762031 1741 1983 243 0.990 0.270 0.734 3.615 0.191 0.600 6 762032 1625 1983 359 0.994 0.288 0.648 4.082 0.174 0.700 7 762041 1510 1983 474 0.984 0.435 0.622 2.961 0.164 0.896 8 762042 1504 1983 480 0.996 0.302 0.641 4.956 0.171 0.753 9 762051 1745 1983 239 0.996 0.274 1.662 12.858 0.193 0.566 10 762052 1750 1983 234 0.998 0.253 0.904 4.001 0.152 0.683 11 762061 1729 1983 255 0.996 0.226 0.030 3.859 0.182 0.530 12 762062 1654 1983 330 0.995 0.259 0.341 4.493 0.192 0.545 13 762071 1711 1983 273 0.999 0.229 0.449 4.167 0.151 0.621 14 762072 1721 1983 263 0.998 0.267 0.797 4.717 0.185 0.605 15 762081 1733 1983 251 0.996 0.249 0.987 5.065 0.149 0.682 16 762082 1705 1983 279 0.995 0.259 0.598 3.579 0.135 0.775 17 762091 1734 1983 250 0.993 0.271 -0.128 3.079 0.122 0.832 18 762092 1807 1983 177 0.997 0.167 0.203 2.661 0.113 0.617 19 762101 1720 1983 264 0.996 0.231 0.435 3.120 0.130 0.715 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 0.998 0.191 0.612 4.409 0.117 0.660 21 762111 1737 1983 247 0.999 0.327 1.085 4.194 0.170 0.723 22 762112 1734 1983 250 0.997 0.358 1.361 7.623 0.179 0.734 23 762121 1742 1983 242 0.994 0.282 0.488 2.495 0.133 0.810 24 762122 1746 1983 238 0.984 0.284 0.445 2.681 0.152 0.770 25 762131 1652 1983 332 0.993 0.242 0.031 2.898 0.165 0.647 26 762132 1613 1983 371 0.994 0.286 -0.084 2.514 0.175 0.735 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 0.994 0.274 0.549 4.147 0.164 0.684 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.004 0.053 0.430 2.078 0.027 0.090 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 0.995 0.271 0.578 3.737 0.169 0.677 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.004 0.051 0.531 1.329 0.036 0.118 MINIMUM VALUE 177 0.984 0.167 -0.128 2.495 0.113 0.530 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 0.993 0.242 0.203 3.079 0.149 0.617 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 0.997 0.292 0.734 4.409 0.185 0.735 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 0.999 0.435 1.662 12.858 0.208 0.896 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.230 0.174 0.010 0.147 2.520 -0.192 0.749 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.192 SERIES 762021 AND 762092 177 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.749 SERIES 762091 AND 762092 177 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1560. 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. CORR 1. 3. 6. 10. 28. 45. 45. 55. 171. 300. RBAR 0.738 0.303 0.516 0.179 0.256 0.373 0.522 0.292 0.386 0.514 SDEV 0.000 0.070 0.163 0.387 0.304 0.217 0.169 0.211 0.204 0.202 SERR 0.000 0.040 0.066 0.122 0.057 0.032 0.025 0.028 0.016 0.012 EPS 0.882 0.620 0.854 0.624 0.762 0.857 0.930 0.884 0.938 0.964 NSS 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.6 9.3 10.1 12.1 18.5 24.0 25.1 YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.422 0.235 0.213 0.272 0.224 0.168 SDEV 0.225 0.300 0.326 0.255 0.281 0.309 SERR 0.013 0.017 0.018 0.014 0.016 0.017 EPS 0.949 0.889 0.876 0.907 0.882 0.840 NSS 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 0.987 0.167 -0.156 3.132 0.120 0.607 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.031 0.018 0.194 129 351 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.53 1.00 1.07 1.60 17.17 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.13 0.00 0.87 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.605 0.510 0.431 0.331 0.242 0.187 0.200 0.145 0.121 0.101 PACF 0.605 0.226 0.092 -0.018 -0.047 -0.009 0.098 -0.020 -0.005 -0.011 95% C.L. 0.091 0.120 0.137 0.148 0.154 0.157 0.159 0.161 0.162 0.163 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.406 0.446 0.183 0.095 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.543 0.452 0.414 0.312 0.179 0.113 0.091 0.002 -0.040 -0.060 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.543 2 0.422 0.224 3 0.388 0.160 0.152 4 0.388 0.160 0.154 -0.005 5 0.388 0.178 0.172 0.040 -0.115 6 0.381 0.180 0.182 0.051 -0.092 -0.061 7 0.382 0.182 0.182 0.048 -0.095 -0.068 0.019 8 0.383 0.178 0.175 0.051 -0.084 -0.056 0.043 -0.064 9 0.381 0.179 0.174 0.048 -0.082 -0.050 0.049 -0.051 -0.034 10 0.380 0.178 0.175 0.047 -0.084 -0.049 0.053 -0.047 -0.025 -0.023 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 3929.00 3763.41 3740.80 3731.61 3733.60 3729.18 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 3729.42 3731.25 3731.30 3732.76 3734.51 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.388 0.160 0.152 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 34.54 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 152.76 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.388 0.310 0.334 0.238 0.192 0.163 0.130 0.106 0.086 0.0701 0.057 0.046 0.038 0.031 0.025 0.020 0.016 0.013 0.011 0.0089 0.007 0.006 0.005 0.004 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.0011 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 762011 3 0.503 0.474 0.226 0.084 2 762012 3 0.406 0.471 0.259 -0.042 3 762021 3 0.443 0.517 0.084 0.140 4 762022 3 0.506 0.453 0.191 0.154 5 762031 3 0.411 0.424 0.181 0.134 6 762032 3 0.521 0.566 0.065 0.160 7 762041 3 0.822 0.608 0.219 0.107 8 762042 3 0.586 0.618 0.140 0.051 9 762051 3 0.342 0.523 -0.012 0.144 10 762052 3 0.514 0.574 0.019 0.186 11 762061 3 0.339 0.387 0.150 0.150 12 762062 3 0.335 0.447 0.150 0.060 13 762071 3 0.419 0.484 0.111 0.137 14 762072 3 0.379 0.543 0.039 0.090 15 762081 3 0.478 0.639 0.152 -0.115 16 762082 3 0.633 0.611 0.098 0.137 17 762091 3 0.727 0.657 0.185 0.041 18 762092 3 0.422 0.476 0.225 0.009 19 762101 3 0.519 0.649 0.044 0.065 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 762102 3 0.445 0.618 0.034 0.050 21 762111 3 0.549 0.647 0.107 0.009 22 762112 3 0.548 0.698 0.120 -0.086 23 762121 3 0.693 0.696 0.358 -0.240 24 762122 3 0.607 0.643 0.143 0.027 25 762131 3 0.474 0.453 0.290 0.015 26 762132 3 0.599 0.465 0.341 0.028 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.509 0.552 0.151 0.058 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.122 0.092 0.096 0.098 MEDIAN 3 0.505 0.555 0.146 0.063 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.167 0.167 0.135 0.123 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.335 0.387 -0.012 -0.240 LOWER HINGE 3 0.419 0.471 0.084 0.015 UPPER HINGE 3 0.586 0.639 0.219 0.137 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.822 0.698 0.358 0.186 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.215 0.315 4.751 0.233 0.009 2 762012 1579 1983 405 1.000 0.183 -0.064 3.750 0.204 0.000 3 762021 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.219 -0.180 4.747 0.253 -0.014 4 762022 1559 1983 425 1.000 0.231 0.353 5.475 0.253 -0.004 5 762031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.207 0.403 3.416 0.232 0.003 6 762032 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.199 0.448 4.456 0.219 0.003 7 762041 1510 1983 474 1.000 0.184 -0.108 4.792 0.202 0.003 8 762042 1504 1983 480 1.000 0.194 -0.132 4.548 0.221 0.003 9 762051 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.222 1.194 10.135 0.239 -0.006 10 762052 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.178 0.533 3.772 0.195 -0.037 11 762061 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.184 -0.225 5.112 0.214 -0.018 12 762062 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.211 0.204 7.126 0.227 0.001 13 762071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.175 0.445 4.896 0.188 -0.001 14 762072 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.211 0.712 5.288 0.240 0.006 15 762081 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.180 1.203 7.317 0.185 0.004 16 762082 1705 1983 279 1.000 0.157 0.255 4.167 0.176 -0.012 17 762091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.142 -0.145 4.030 0.157 0.012 18 762092 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.127 -0.125 3.072 0.140 0.002 19 762101 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.160 0.643 5.043 0.169 0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.142 0.911 6.989 0.153 -0.002 21 762111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.220 1.348 9.500 0.225 -0.007 22 762112 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.240 2.278 16.001 0.234 -0.002 23 762121 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.157 0.252 3.561 0.173 -0.014 24 762122 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.178 0.652 4.610 0.192 -0.002 25 762131 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.175 0.185 3.645 0.199 -0.004 26 762132 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.181 -0.230 3.216 0.207 0.000 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 1.000 0.187 0.428 5.516 0.205 -0.003 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.029 0.592 2.784 0.031 0.010 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 1.000 0.183 0.334 4.749 0.205 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.000 0.037 0.760 1.703 0.046 0.009 MINIMUM VALUE 177 1.000 0.127 -0.230 3.072 0.140 -0.037 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 1.000 0.175 -0.108 3.772 0.185 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 1.000 0.211 0.652 5.475 0.232 0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 1.000 0.240 2.278 16.001 0.253 0.012 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.338 0.115 0.006 -0.034 3.275 -0.007 0.699 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.007 SERIES 762061 AND 762111 247 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.699 SERIES 762091 AND 762092 177 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1560. 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. CORR 1. 3. 6. 10. 28. 45. 45. 55. 171. 300. RBAR 0.711 0.314 0.363 0.305 0.276 0.464 0.475 0.377 0.390 0.394 SDEV 0.000 0.199 0.195 0.154 0.149 0.128 0.155 0.195 0.204 0.151 SERR 0.000 0.115 0.080 0.049 0.028 0.019 0.023 0.026 0.016 0.009 EPS 0.867 0.633 0.757 0.770 0.780 0.897 0.917 0.918 0.939 0.942 NSS 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.6 9.3 10.1 12.1 18.5 24.0 25.1 YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.423 0.475 0.429 0.395 0.319 0.257 SDEV 0.144 0.158 0.173 0.148 0.154 0.179 SERR 0.008 0.009 0.010 0.008 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.949 0.959 0.951 0.944 0.924 0.900 NSS 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 0.996 0.122 -0.173 3.520 0.145 -0.116 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.037 0.018 0.113 130 350 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.60 1.00 1.08 1.68 13.83 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.116 -0.014 0.023 0.002 -0.047 -0.068 0.070 -0.024 0.049 0.025 PACF -0.116 -0.027 0.019 0.006 -0.046 -0.080 0.052 -0.010 0.052 0.032 95% C.L. 0.091 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.093 0.094 0.094 0.094 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.014 -0.116 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.001 0.001 -0.002 -0.053 -0.069 0.061 -0.010 0.055 0.030 PACF 0.000 0.001 0.001 -0.002 -0.053 -0.069 0.061 -0.010 0.056 0.027 95% C.L. 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.093 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 0.996 0.147 -0.066 3.090 0.114 0.524 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.523 0.425 0.380 0.273 0.184 0.137 0.157 0.096 0.090 0.053 PACF 0.523 0.208 0.136 -0.013 -0.050 -0.017 0.084 -0.024 0.018 -0.043 95% C.L. 0.091 0.114 0.126 0.135 0.140 0.142 0.143 0.144 0.145 0.145 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.319 0.385 0.152 0.138 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 4.18 MINUTES