RUN: OR001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: OR043X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: OR043X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 762 1 Barlow Pass, am Mt.Hood DENSITY_MAXIMUM PSME - 762 2 United States of America bigcone Douglas-fir 1300 4519-12139 1504 19 762 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 762011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1672 1673 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 762021 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1677 1681 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 762041 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 3 GAPS / 1649 1649 / 1655 1655 / 1704 1704 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 762062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1972 1972 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 21 762111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1828 1832 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 0.877 0.088 -0.124 2.984 0.076 0.480 2 762012 1579 1983 405 0.947 0.076 -1.337 6.886 0.072 0.249 3 762021 1625 1983 359 0.876 0.067 -0.236 3.879 0.051 0.636 4 762022 1559 1983 425 0.877 0.116 -1.054 3.990 0.071 0.749 5 762031 1741 1983 243 0.924 0.050 -0.831 3.429 0.054 0.216 6 762032 1625 1983 359 0.886 0.068 -0.588 3.645 0.065 0.424 7 762041 1510 1983 474 0.779 0.071 -1.166 4.887 0.064 0.580 8 762042 1504 1983 480 0.820 0.080 -0.846 3.679 0.070 0.583 9 762051 1745 1983 239 0.822 0.062 -0.404 3.038 0.060 0.522 10 762052 1750 1983 234 0.880 0.062 -0.411 3.153 0.065 0.338 11 762061 1729 1983 255 0.942 0.069 -1.019 4.033 0.049 0.627 12 762062 1654 1983 330 0.880 0.152 -1.065 2.750 0.052 0.921 13 762071 1711 1983 273 0.891 0.060 -0.382 3.111 0.063 0.327 14 762072 1721 1983 263 0.872 0.079 -1.127 4.210 0.062 0.589 15 762081 1733 1983 251 0.824 0.054 -0.699 3.664 0.065 0.185 16 762082 1705 1983 279 0.884 0.056 -0.493 3.570 0.061 0.161 17 762091 1734 1983 250 0.804 0.070 -0.971 4.568 0.084 0.254 18 762092 1807 1983 177 0.831 0.079 -0.986 4.199 0.079 0.451 19 762101 1720 1983 264 0.877 0.060 -0.834 4.019 0.073 0.081 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 0.883 0.063 -0.900 4.495 0.074 0.122 21 762111 1737 1983 247 0.816 0.047 -0.242 2.926 0.053 0.313 22 762112 1734 1983 250 0.814 0.046 -0.575 3.623 0.057 0.163 23 762121 1742 1983 242 0.912 0.051 -0.834 3.888 0.056 0.132 24 762122 1746 1983 238 0.883 0.056 -1.079 4.859 0.063 0.111 25 762131 1652 1983 332 0.829 0.082 -0.503 3.851 0.075 0.511 26 762132 1613 1983 371 0.820 0.074 -0.750 3.910 0.072 0.471 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1504 TO 1983 480 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 0.863 0.071 -0.748 3.894 0.065 0.392 STANDARD DEVIATION 79 0.044 0.022 0.326 0.835 0.009 0.222 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 0.877 0.068 -0.832 3.865 0.064 0.381 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 116 0.062 0.023 0.526 0.770 0.015 0.396 MINIMUM VALUE 177 0.779 0.046 -1.337 2.750 0.049 0.081 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 243 0.822 0.056 -1.019 3.429 0.057 0.185 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 0.884 0.079 -0.493 4.199 0.072 0.580 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 0.947 0.152 -0.124 6.886 0.084 0.921 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.357 0.225 0.012 -0.429 2.993 -0.353 0.828 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.353 SERIES 762062 AND 762092 177 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.828 SERIES 762101 AND 762102 263 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1560. 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. CORR 1. 3. 6. 10. 28. 45. 45. 55. 171. 300. RBAR 0.592 0.820 0.733 0.320 0.228 0.261 0.354 0.602 0.619 0.546 SDEV 0.000 0.038 0.143 0.485 0.357 0.249 0.264 0.215 0.181 0.223 SERR 0.000 0.022 0.058 0.154 0.067 0.037 0.039 0.029 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.793 0.945 0.938 0.782 0.733 0.781 0.869 0.965 0.975 0.968 NSS 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.6 9.3 10.1 12.1 18.5 24.0 25.1 YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.533 0.406 0.451 0.474 0.327 0.273 SDEV 0.247 0.255 0.243 0.229 0.257 0.277 SERR 0.014 0.014 0.013 0.013 0.014 0.015 EPS 0.967 0.947 0.955 0.959 0.927 0.907 NSS 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 0.866 0.059 -0.661 4.978 0.058 0.341 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.108 0.047 0.030 129 351 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.77 1.00 1.09 1.87 9.80 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 264. 112. 177. 247. 359. 480. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.341 0.392 0.308 0.322 0.357 0.276 0.291 0.311 0.355 0.363 PACF 0.341 0.312 0.138 0.136 0.178 0.038 0.057 0.109 0.146 0.128 95% C.L. 0.091 0.101 0.113 0.120 0.127 0.135 0.140 0.145 0.150 0.157 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.258 0.149 0.221 0.069 0.105 0.179 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 762011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00039976 0.95417100 2 762012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000113 0.94658601 3 762021 1 0.18253006 0.00427460 0.00000000 0.78490543 4 762022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00060251 1.00543964 5 762031 1 0.08730048 0.00303907 0.00000000 0.86273479 6 762032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000107 0.88546133 7 762041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013194 0.74719429 8 762042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00027430 0.88625985 9 762051 1 0.11970963 0.00872469 0.00000000 0.77208263 10 762052 1 0.11098429 0.01775084 0.00000000 0.85363519 11 762061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00045529 1.00055146 12 762062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00128308 1.09153390 13 762071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00021072 0.91956472 14 762072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00009138 0.85949641 15 762081 1 0.06925463 0.04485295 0.00000000 0.81773061 16 762082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00014728 0.90441817 17 762091 1 0.04029442 0.03003297 0.00000000 0.79911655 18 762092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00072244 0.76694596 19 762101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00025888 0.84270626 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 762102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020290 0.85648739 21 762111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007686 0.80572772 22 762112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005441 0.80729157 23 762121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00014381 0.89500672 24 762122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011161 0.86926818 25 762131 1 0.18804973 0.01820662 0.00000000 0.79786277 26 762132 1 0.08219758 0.00211720 0.00000000 0.76283479 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.084 -0.980 4.923 0.075 0.310 2 762012 1579 1983 405 1.000 0.080 -1.334 6.878 0.072 0.249 3 762021 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.063 -0.716 4.953 0.051 0.454 4 762022 1559 1983 425 1.000 0.103 -1.166 5.070 0.071 0.596 5 762031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.053 -0.803 3.399 0.053 0.153 6 762032 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.077 -0.586 3.645 0.064 0.423 7 762041 1510 1983 474 1.000 0.089 -1.163 4.742 0.064 0.570 8 762042 1504 1983 480 1.000 0.086 -0.723 3.668 0.070 0.479 9 762051 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.067 -0.622 3.495 0.060 0.391 10 762052 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.063 -0.687 3.404 0.064 0.163 11 762061 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.065 -0.911 4.140 0.049 0.524 12 762062 1654 1983 330 0.999 0.111 -0.252 2.782 0.052 0.814 13 762071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.065 -0.556 3.254 0.063 0.278 14 762072 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.091 -1.171 4.308 0.062 0.581 15 762081 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.064 -0.836 3.794 0.064 0.137 16 762082 1705 1983 279 1.000 0.062 -0.641 3.900 0.061 0.126 17 762091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.086 -1.043 4.732 0.083 0.246 18 762092 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.086 -0.860 4.143 0.078 0.303 19 762101 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.064 -0.802 4.589 0.072 -0.034 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.069 -0.814 4.486 0.073 0.059 21 762111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.058 -0.190 2.830 0.052 0.320 22 762112 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.056 -0.572 3.627 0.057 0.154 23 762121 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.054 -0.831 3.779 0.056 0.098 24 762122 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.063 -1.024 4.702 0.063 0.089 25 762131 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.084 -1.058 5.079 0.075 0.308 26 762132 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.089 -0.972 4.353 0.072 0.452 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 1.000 0.074 -0.820 4.180 0.065 0.317 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.015 0.272 0.867 0.009 0.203 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 1.000 0.068 -0.823 4.141 0.064 0.306 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.000 0.023 0.383 1.105 0.015 0.302 MINIMUM VALUE 177 0.999 0.053 -1.334 2.782 0.049 -0.034 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 1.000 0.063 -1.024 3.627 0.057 0.153 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 1.000 0.086 -0.641 4.732 0.072 0.454 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 1.000 0.111 -0.190 6.878 0.083 0.814 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 762011 -67 255 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 762012 -67 271 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 762021 -67 240 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 762022 -67 284 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 762031 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 762032 -67 240 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 762041 -67 317 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 762042 -67 321 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 762051 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 762052 -67 156 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 762061 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 762062 -67 221 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 762071 -67 182 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 762072 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 762081 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 762082 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 762091 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 762092 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 762101 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 762102 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 762111 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 762112 -67 167 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 762121 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 762122 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 762131 -67 222 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 762132 -67 248 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.079 -0.901 4.868 0.075 0.183 2 762012 1579 1983 405 1.000 0.075 -1.406 7.564 0.072 0.140 3 762021 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.058 -0.776 5.004 0.051 0.342 4 762022 1559 1983 425 1.000 0.087 -1.246 6.246 0.071 0.408 5 762031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.052 -0.824 3.443 0.053 0.117 6 762032 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.072 -0.779 3.955 0.064 0.333 7 762041 1510 1983 474 1.000 0.085 -0.979 4.436 0.064 0.529 8 762042 1504 1983 480 1.000 0.080 -0.526 4.006 0.070 0.395 9 762051 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.064 -0.687 3.803 0.060 0.333 10 762052 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.062 -0.687 3.396 0.064 0.149 11 762061 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.055 -1.056 4.717 0.049 0.342 12 762062 1654 1983 330 0.999 0.077 -0.633 4.128 0.052 0.614 13 762071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.065 -0.552 3.257 0.062 0.267 14 762072 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.084 -0.786 4.185 0.062 0.504 15 762081 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.063 -0.809 3.798 0.064 0.112 16 762082 1705 1983 279 1.000 0.061 -0.714 4.085 0.061 0.082 17 762091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.084 -1.131 4.986 0.083 0.200 18 762092 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.078 -0.956 4.553 0.078 0.151 19 762101 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.064 -0.811 4.609 0.072 -0.041 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.067 -0.919 4.726 0.073 0.004 21 762111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.053 -0.369 3.366 0.052 0.192 22 762112 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.054 -0.646 3.789 0.057 0.112 23 762121 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.054 -0.810 3.870 0.056 0.076 24 762122 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.062 -1.087 4.808 0.063 0.079 25 762131 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.082 -1.103 5.309 0.075 0.262 26 762132 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.079 -1.163 4.661 0.072 0.300 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 1.000 0.069 -0.860 4.445 0.065 0.238 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.012 0.240 0.935 0.009 0.165 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 1.000 0.066 -0.810 4.310 0.064 0.196 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.000 0.019 0.368 1.005 0.016 0.230 MINIMUM VALUE 177 0.999 0.052 -1.406 3.257 0.049 -0.041 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 1.000 0.061 -1.056 3.803 0.057 0.112 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 1.000 0.079 -0.687 4.808 0.072 0.342 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 1.000 0.087 -0.369 7.564 0.083 0.614 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.400 0.190 0.011 0.172 2.460 -0.016 0.836 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.016 SERIES 762062 AND 762092 177 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.836 SERIES 762101 AND 762102 263 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1560. 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. CORR 1. 3. 6. 10. 28. 45. 45. 55. 171. 300. RBAR 0.575 0.799 0.721 0.342 0.227 0.239 0.353 0.600 0.614 0.551 SDEV 0.000 0.051 0.159 0.450 0.339 0.240 0.259 0.221 0.179 0.225 SERR 0.000 0.029 0.065 0.142 0.064 0.036 0.039 0.030 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.781 0.937 0.934 0.798 0.731 0.760 0.869 0.965 0.974 0.969 NSS 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.6 9.3 10.1 12.1 18.5 24.0 25.1 YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.528 0.431 0.450 0.476 0.343 0.269 SDEV 0.246 0.239 0.252 0.220 0.241 0.283 SERR 0.014 0.013 0.014 0.012 0.013 0.016 EPS 0.966 0.952 0.955 0.959 0.931 0.905 NSS 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 1.002 0.056 -1.671 9.051 0.059 0.003 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.315 -0.140 0.188 189 291 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 1.00 1.00 1.09 2.09 24.30 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 0.069 -0.031 0.037 0.061 -0.024 -0.053 -0.017 0.059 0.095 PACF 0.003 0.069 -0.031 0.033 0.065 -0.030 -0.060 -0.010 0.061 0.092 95% C.L. 0.091 0.091 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.093 0.093 0.093 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.032 0.060 -0.024 0.007 -0.086 0.050 -0.083 -0.017 0.028 0.022 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.032 2 -0.030 0.059 3 -0.029 0.058 -0.020 4 -0.029 0.058 -0.020 0.002 5 -0.029 0.057 -0.015 0.000 -0.084 6 -0.025 0.057 -0.015 -0.002 -0.083 0.045 7 -0.022 0.051 -0.015 -0.003 -0.078 0.043 -0.072 8 -0.024 0.052 -0.017 -0.004 -0.079 0.044 -0.073 -0.030 9 -0.023 0.055 -0.019 -0.001 -0.079 0.045 -0.074 -0.029 0.038 10 -0.024 0.055 -0.018 -0.001 -0.077 0.045 -0.074 -0.030 0.038 0.017 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2798.52 2800.02 2800.35 2802.15 2804.15 2802.77 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2803.81 2803.33 2804.89 2806.19 2808.06 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 0 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 762011 0 0.034 2 762012 0 0.020 3 762021 0 0.119 4 762022 0 0.167 5 762031 0 0.014 6 762032 0 0.111 7 762041 0 0.280 8 762042 0 0.158 9 762051 0 0.111 10 762052 0 0.022 11 762061 0 0.117 12 762062 0 0.378 13 762071 0 0.072 14 762072 0 0.255 15 762081 0 0.013 16 762082 0 0.007 17 762091 0 0.040 18 762092 0 0.023 19 762101 0 0.002 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 762102 0 0.000 21 762111 0 0.037 22 762112 0 0.013 23 762121 0 0.006 24 762122 0 0.006 25 762131 0 0.069 26 762132 0 0.090 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 0 0.083 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.097 MEDIAN 0 0.039 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.105 MINIMUM VALUE 0 0.000 LOWER HINGE 0 0.013 UPPER HINGE 0 0.117 MAXIMUM VALUE 0 0.378 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 762011 1603 1983 381 1.000 0.079 -0.901 4.868 0.075 0.183 2 762012 1579 1983 405 1.000 0.075 -1.406 7.564 0.072 0.140 3 762021 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.058 -0.776 5.004 0.051 0.342 4 762022 1559 1983 425 1.000 0.087 -1.246 6.246 0.071 0.408 5 762031 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.052 -0.824 3.443 0.053 0.117 6 762032 1625 1983 359 1.000 0.072 -0.779 3.955 0.064 0.333 7 762041 1510 1983 474 1.000 0.085 -0.979 4.436 0.064 0.529 8 762042 1504 1983 480 1.000 0.080 -0.526 4.006 0.070 0.395 9 762051 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.064 -0.687 3.803 0.060 0.333 10 762052 1750 1983 234 1.000 0.062 -0.687 3.396 0.064 0.149 11 762061 1729 1983 255 1.000 0.055 -1.056 4.717 0.049 0.342 12 762062 1654 1983 330 1.000 0.077 -0.633 4.128 0.052 0.614 13 762071 1711 1983 273 1.000 0.065 -0.552 3.257 0.062 0.267 14 762072 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.084 -0.786 4.185 0.062 0.504 15 762081 1733 1983 251 1.000 0.063 -0.809 3.798 0.064 0.112 16 762082 1705 1983 279 1.000 0.061 -0.714 4.085 0.061 0.082 17 762091 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.084 -1.131 4.986 0.083 0.200 18 762092 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.078 -0.956 4.553 0.078 0.151 19 762101 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.064 -0.811 4.609 0.072 -0.041 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 762102 1721 1983 263 1.000 0.067 -0.919 4.726 0.073 0.004 21 762111 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.053 -0.369 3.366 0.052 0.192 22 762112 1734 1983 250 1.000 0.054 -0.646 3.789 0.057 0.112 23 762121 1742 1983 242 1.000 0.054 -0.810 3.870 0.056 0.076 24 762122 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.062 -1.087 4.808 0.063 0.079 25 762131 1652 1983 332 1.000 0.082 -1.103 5.309 0.075 0.262 26 762132 1613 1983 371 1.000 0.079 -1.163 4.661 0.072 0.300 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 303 1.000 0.069 -0.860 4.445 0.065 0.238 STANDARD DEVIATION 80 0.000 0.012 0.240 0.935 0.009 0.165 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 263 1.000 0.066 -0.810 4.310 0.064 0.196 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 112 0.000 0.019 0.368 1.005 0.016 0.230 MINIMUM VALUE 177 1.000 0.052 -1.406 3.257 0.049 -0.041 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 247 1.000 0.061 -1.056 3.803 0.057 0.112 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 359 1.000 0.079 -0.687 4.808 0.072 0.342 MAXIMUM VALUE 480 1.000 0.087 -0.369 7.564 0.083 0.614 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.400 0.190 0.011 0.172 2.460 -0.016 0.836 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.016 SERIES 762062 AND 762092 177 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.836 SERIES 762101 AND 762102 263 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 54.02 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1560. 1585. 1610. 1635. 1660. 1685. 1710. 1735. 1760. 1785. CORR 1. 3. 6. 10. 28. 45. 45. 55. 171. 300. RBAR 0.575 0.799 0.721 0.342 0.227 0.239 0.353 0.600 0.614 0.551 SDEV 0.000 0.051 0.159 0.450 0.339 0.240 0.259 0.221 0.179 0.225 SERR 0.000 0.029 0.065 0.142 0.064 0.036 0.039 0.030 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.781 0.937 0.934 0.798 0.731 0.760 0.869 0.965 0.974 0.969 NSS 2.6 3.8 5.5 7.6 9.3 10.1 12.1 18.5 24.0 25.1 YEAR 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 300. 325. 325. 325. 325. 325. RBAR 0.528 0.431 0.450 0.476 0.343 0.269 SDEV 0.246 0.239 0.252 0.220 0.241 0.283 SERR 0.014 0.013 0.014 0.012 0.013 0.016 EPS 0.966 0.952 0.955 0.959 0.931 0.905 NSS 25.6 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 1.002 0.056 -1.670 9.045 0.059 0.003 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.315 -0.140 0.187 188 292 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 1.02 1.00 1.09 2.12 22.74 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.94 0.12 0.00 0.88 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 0.069 -0.030 0.037 0.061 -0.024 -0.053 -0.016 0.059 0.095 PACF 0.003 0.069 -0.031 0.033 0.065 -0.030 -0.060 -0.009 0.062 0.092 95% C.L. 0.091 0.091 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.093 0.093 0.093 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1504 1983 480 1.002 0.056 -1.670 9.045 0.059 0.003 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.003 0.069 -0.030 0.037 0.061 -0.024 -0.053 -0.016 0.059 0.095 PACF 0.003 0.069 -0.031 0.033 0.065 -0.030 -0.060 -0.009 0.062 0.092 95% C.L. 0.091 0.091 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.093 0.093 0.093 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.41 MINUTES