RUN: OR001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: OR044E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: OR044E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 682 1 Mt. Ashland, sźdl.Medfor WIDTH_EARLY ABMA - 682 2 United States of America California red fir 1860 4204-12243 1739 198 682 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 682011 1762 1983 222 0.991 0.507 0.699 3.262 0.294 0.736 2 682012 1764 1983 220 1.070 0.645 0.508 2.495 0.255 0.867 3 682021 1807 1983 177 1.650 0.555 0.496 2.402 0.161 0.802 4 682022 1806 1983 178 1.463 0.559 0.506 2.463 0.183 0.820 5 682031 1849 1983 135 2.135 0.661 -0.044 3.239 0.176 0.753 6 682032 1843 1983 141 2.055 0.626 1.349 5.338 0.170 0.727 7 682041 1815 1983 169 1.465 0.625 0.470 2.609 0.162 0.887 8 682042 1802 1983 182 1.452 0.528 0.690 3.990 0.165 0.812 9 682051 1810 1983 174 1.070 0.546 0.460 1.978 0.193 0.878 10 682052 1786 1983 198 1.365 0.528 0.800 3.302 0.195 0.767 11 682061 1828 1983 156 1.656 0.777 0.678 3.268 0.204 0.797 12 682062 1816 1983 168 1.566 0.553 0.500 2.739 0.181 0.790 13 682071 1849 1983 135 2.131 0.712 1.480 5.630 0.195 0.719 14 682072 1849 1983 135 2.117 0.915 1.848 5.971 0.173 0.835 15 682091 1806 1983 178 1.564 0.651 -0.019 2.152 0.188 0.842 16 682092 1797 1983 187 1.478 0.691 0.363 2.498 0.212 0.822 17 682101 1745 1983 239 1.015 0.739 0.830 2.568 0.187 0.939 18 682102 1739 1983 245 1.048 0.684 0.957 2.965 0.179 0.910 19 682111 1775 1983 209 1.222 0.716 1.190 3.702 0.183 0.926 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 682112 1774 1983 210 1.163 0.732 1.018 3.063 0.193 0.923 21 682121 1837 1983 147 1.683 0.581 0.978 4.170 0.211 0.683 22 682122 1816 1983 168 1.621 0.474 0.279 3.952 0.174 0.703 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1739 TO 1983 245 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 181 1.499 0.637 0.729 3.353 0.192 0.815 STANDARD DEVIATION 33 0.370 0.105 0.461 1.109 0.031 0.076 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 177 1.471 0.635 0.684 3.151 0.185 0.816 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 53 0.493 0.159 0.508 1.454 0.021 0.125 MINIMUM VALUE 135 0.991 0.474 -0.044 1.978 0.161 0.683 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 156 1.163 0.553 0.470 2.498 0.174 0.753 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 1.656 0.712 0.978 3.952 0.195 0.878 MAXIMUM VALUE 245 2.135 0.915 1.848 5.971 0.294 0.939 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.532 0.248 0.016 -1.067 3.299 -0.136 0.934 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.136 SERIES 682041 AND 682122 168 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.934 SERIES 682111 AND 682112 209 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 21. 91. 153. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.337 0.470 0.234 0.456 0.444 0.461 0.358 SDEV 0.270 0.179 0.284 0.224 0.224 0.248 0.196 SERR 0.110 0.039 0.030 0.018 0.015 0.016 0.013 EPS 0.791 0.920 0.850 0.947 0.946 0.950 0.925 NSS 7.4 13.0 18.7 21.4 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1739 1983 245 1.578 0.496 0.429 2.983 0.141 0.779 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.221 -0.089 0.695 36 209 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.20 0.29 1.01 1.11 1.40 5.22 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 178. 53. 135. 156. 209. 245. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.776 0.693 0.667 0.658 0.648 0.602 0.567 0.529 0.556 0.540 PACF 0.776 0.228 0.199 0.163 0.121 -0.009 0.004 -0.034 0.144 0.015 95% C.L. 0.128 0.190 0.227 0.257 0.283 0.307 0.325 0.341 0.354 0.368 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.689 0.445 0.101 0.176 0.054 0.140 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 682011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00489397 1.53716397 2 682012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00766514 1.91717935 3 682021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00789804 2.35258675 4 682022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00756459 2.14006472 5 682031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00824207 2.69549799 6 682032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00578929 2.46628785 7 682041 1 1.28529668 0.01558675 0.00000000 1.01524794 8 682042 1 1.43362427 0.02377341 0.00000000 1.12938178 9 682051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00942936 1.89506876 10 682052 1 1.57259476 0.01817091 0.00000000 0.94356459 11 682061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01049865 2.48055410 12 682062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00779157 2.22422075 13 682071 1 2.12162852 0.03526309 0.00000000 1.69723356 14 682072 1 3.60599661 0.06169472 0.00000000 1.69688916 15 682091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01015723 2.47266817 16 682092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01072145 2.48573065 17 682101 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 682102 1 2.40455604 0.01119123 0.00000000 0.23238415 19 682111 1 2.57696724 0.01583861 0.00000000 0.47743869 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 682112 1 2.61703396 0.01284332 0.00000000 0.26435998 21 682121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00373784 1.40612054 22 682122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00076814 1.55580628 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 682011 1762 1983 222 1.005 0.486 2.818 16.648 0.292 0.695 2 682012 1764 1983 220 0.990 0.425 1.717 7.246 0.254 0.708 3 682021 1807 1983 177 1.002 0.225 0.074 3.162 0.160 0.603 4 682022 1806 1983 178 1.002 0.268 0.073 3.082 0.183 0.628 5 682031 1849 1983 135 0.997 0.279 0.334 3.309 0.175 0.701 6 682032 1843 1983 141 0.999 0.278 1.636 6.728 0.169 0.680 7 682041 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.374 0.366 2.444 0.160 0.849 8 682042 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.275 -0.072 2.816 0.164 0.696 9 682051 1810 1983 174 1.026 0.286 0.296 4.417 0.193 0.593 10 682052 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.264 0.452 3.754 0.194 0.563 11 682061 1828 1983 156 0.994 0.377 1.115 4.132 0.203 0.702 12 682062 1816 1983 168 0.998 0.251 0.553 3.472 0.180 0.615 13 682071 1849 1983 135 1.000 0.220 0.631 3.441 0.194 0.395 14 682072 1849 1983 135 1.000 0.237 0.349 2.927 0.171 0.602 15 682091 1806 1983 178 0.991 0.269 0.341 4.066 0.187 0.631 16 682092 1797 1983 187 0.994 0.252 0.159 3.338 0.211 0.503 17 682101 1745 1983 239 0.998 0.318 0.215 3.044 0.187 0.776 18 682102 1739 1983 245 1.001 0.328 0.121 3.154 0.177 0.793 19 682111 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.243 0.511 4.543 0.182 0.557 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 682112 1774 1983 210 1.007 0.305 1.306 5.530 0.192 0.661 21 682121 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.318 0.521 3.345 0.210 0.631 22 682122 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.291 0.274 3.968 0.173 0.696 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 181 1.000 0.299 0.627 4.480 0.191 0.649 STANDARD DEVIATION 33 0.007 0.066 0.692 2.975 0.031 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 177 1.000 0.279 0.357 3.457 0.185 0.646 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 53 0.003 0.067 0.416 1.263 0.021 0.098 MINIMUM VALUE 135 0.990 0.220 -0.072 2.444 0.160 0.395 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 156 0.998 0.252 0.215 3.154 0.173 0.602 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 1.001 0.318 0.631 4.417 0.194 0.701 MAXIMUM VALUE 245 1.026 0.486 2.818 16.648 0.292 0.849 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 682011 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 682012 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 682021 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 682022 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 682031 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 682032 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 682041 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 682042 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 682051 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 682052 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 682061 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 682062 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 682071 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 682072 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 682091 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 682092 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 682101 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 682102 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 682111 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 682112 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 682121 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 682122 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 682011 1762 1983 222 0.998 0.466 2.530 14.512 0.292 0.684 2 682012 1764 1983 220 0.995 0.400 1.528 6.516 0.254 0.665 3 682021 1807 1983 177 0.999 0.217 0.038 3.023 0.160 0.573 4 682022 1806 1983 178 0.999 0.261 -0.023 3.058 0.183 0.620 5 682031 1849 1983 135 0.997 0.218 -0.073 3.969 0.175 0.552 6 682032 1843 1983 141 0.998 0.240 0.803 4.790 0.168 0.599 7 682041 1815 1983 169 0.982 0.255 0.573 3.499 0.159 0.671 8 682042 1802 1983 182 0.997 0.259 -0.114 3.066 0.164 0.664 9 682051 1810 1983 174 0.998 0.251 0.355 4.339 0.192 0.502 10 682052 1786 1983 198 0.998 0.252 0.352 3.448 0.194 0.522 11 682061 1828 1983 156 0.998 0.356 0.978 3.873 0.203 0.686 12 682062 1816 1983 168 0.999 0.241 0.476 3.419 0.180 0.587 13 682071 1849 1983 135 0.999 0.216 0.631 3.433 0.194 0.371 14 682072 1849 1983 135 0.999 0.233 0.330 2.916 0.171 0.595 15 682091 1806 1983 178 0.998 0.253 0.451 4.820 0.187 0.568 16 682092 1797 1983 187 0.999 0.245 0.114 3.342 0.211 0.464 17 682101 1745 1983 239 0.996 0.305 0.109 3.007 0.187 0.756 18 682102 1739 1983 245 0.990 0.283 0.033 3.329 0.177 0.735 19 682111 1775 1983 209 0.999 0.238 0.463 3.982 0.182 0.533 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 682112 1774 1983 210 0.998 0.272 1.016 4.645 0.192 0.590 21 682121 1837 1983 147 0.990 0.269 0.638 4.007 0.209 0.509 22 682122 1816 1983 168 0.995 0.247 0.355 3.985 0.173 0.595 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 181 0.996 0.272 0.526 4.317 0.191 0.593 STANDARD DEVIATION 33 0.004 0.061 0.602 2.424 0.031 0.091 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 177 0.998 0.252 0.403 3.686 0.185 0.593 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 53 0.002 0.033 0.529 1.010 0.020 0.132 MINIMUM VALUE 135 0.982 0.216 -0.114 2.916 0.159 0.371 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 156 0.996 0.240 0.109 3.329 0.173 0.533 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 0.999 0.272 0.638 4.339 0.194 0.665 MAXIMUM VALUE 245 0.999 0.466 2.530 14.512 0.292 0.756 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.401 0.134 0.009 -0.203 3.701 -0.081 0.792 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.081 SERIES 682012 AND 682101 220 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.792 SERIES 682071 AND 682072 135 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 21. 91. 153. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.280 0.365 0.384 0.411 0.501 0.503 0.427 SDEV 0.274 0.174 0.211 0.185 0.170 0.187 0.164 SERR 0.112 0.038 0.022 0.015 0.011 0.012 0.011 EPS 0.743 0.882 0.921 0.937 0.957 0.957 0.943 NSS 7.4 13.0 18.7 21.4 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1739 1983 245 0.991 0.169 0.195 3.127 0.138 0.497 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.249 0.106 0.080 76 169 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.90 1.01 1.12 2.02 7.99 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.11 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.495 0.313 0.282 0.195 0.112 0.063 -0.039 -0.114 -0.034 -0.085 PACF 0.495 0.090 0.129 -0.002 -0.031 -0.024 -0.112 -0.093 0.091 -0.067 95% C.L. 0.128 0.156 0.166 0.173 0.177 0.178 0.179 0.179 0.180 0.180 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.251 0.495 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.603 0.384 0.342 0.254 0.111 0.064 -0.043 -0.143 -0.098 -0.144 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.603 2 0.584 0.032 3 0.579 -0.059 0.155 4 0.583 -0.060 0.168 -0.024 5 0.580 -0.042 0.162 0.039 -0.108 6 0.581 -0.042 0.160 0.040 -0.114 0.009 7 0.583 -0.059 0.166 0.064 -0.120 0.097 -0.151 8 0.569 -0.050 0.156 0.070 -0.105 0.092 -0.098 -0.090 9 0.577 -0.042 0.148 0.079 -0.111 0.078 -0.094 -0.139 0.087 10 0.586 -0.058 0.137 0.088 -0.124 0.087 -0.077 -0.144 0.151 -0.112 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1926.89 1818.10 1819.85 1815.92 1817.78 1816.89 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1818.87 1815.22 1815.23 1815.38 1814.27 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.603 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 36.38 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 157.18 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.603 0.364 0.219 0.132 0.080 0.048 0.029 0.018 0.011 0.0064 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 682011 1 0.470 0.686 2 682012 1 0.445 0.667 3 682021 1 0.336 0.576 4 682022 1 0.396 0.624 5 682031 1 0.309 0.555 6 682032 1 0.360 0.600 7 682041 1 0.474 0.672 8 682042 1 0.444 0.666 9 682051 1 0.283 0.506 10 682052 1 0.305 0.523 11 682061 1 0.476 0.687 12 682062 1 0.353 0.587 13 682071 1 0.158 0.371 14 682072 1 0.366 0.599 15 682091 1 0.346 0.572 16 682092 1 0.233 0.465 17 682101 1 0.588 0.758 18 682102 1 0.557 0.735 19 682111 1 0.290 0.537 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 682112 1 0.351 0.592 21 682121 1 0.273 0.514 22 682122 1 0.390 0.605 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.373 0.595 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.103 0.091 MEDIAN 1 0.357 0.595 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.140 0.130 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.158 0.371 LOWER HINGE 1 0.305 0.537 UPPER HINGE 1 0.445 0.667 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.588 0.758 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 682011 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.339 1.155 7.456 0.393 -0.013 2 682012 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.298 1.006 5.797 0.322 -0.005 3 682021 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.177 -0.164 3.458 0.195 0.047 4 682022 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.204 -0.015 3.255 0.219 0.067 5 682031 1849 1983 135 1.000 0.181 -0.496 4.978 0.208 0.016 6 682032 1843 1983 141 1.000 0.192 0.036 4.154 0.221 -0.013 7 682041 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.189 0.895 5.136 0.207 -0.134 8 682042 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.193 0.364 3.487 0.209 -0.031 9 682051 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.216 0.577 4.279 0.246 -0.100 10 682052 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.214 0.182 3.622 0.256 -0.106 11 682061 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.259 0.992 5.082 0.257 0.065 12 682062 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.195 0.205 2.540 0.233 -0.069 13 682071 1849 1983 135 1.000 0.201 0.475 3.167 0.234 -0.057 14 682072 1849 1983 135 1.000 0.187 0.290 2.542 0.214 -0.063 15 682091 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.207 0.051 5.148 0.234 -0.098 16 682092 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.217 0.152 3.472 0.256 -0.066 17 682101 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.199 -0.139 3.577 0.240 -0.135 18 682102 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.192 0.103 3.350 0.229 -0.140 19 682111 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.200 0.414 3.478 0.221 0.024 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 682112 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.219 0.518 3.150 0.240 0.018 21 682121 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.231 0.542 4.007 0.253 -0.054 22 682122 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.196 0.247 3.980 0.220 -0.122 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 181 1.000 0.214 0.336 4.051 0.241 -0.044 STANDARD DEVIATION 33 0.000 0.039 0.415 1.155 0.043 0.066 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 177 1.000 0.200 0.269 3.599 0.234 -0.055 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 53 0.000 0.025 0.491 1.629 0.034 0.115 MINIMUM VALUE 135 1.000 0.177 -0.496 2.540 0.195 -0.140 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.192 0.051 3.350 0.219 -0.100 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.217 0.542 4.978 0.253 0.016 MAXIMUM VALUE 245 1.000 0.339 1.155 7.456 0.393 0.067 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.418 0.101 0.007 0.191 3.429 0.115 0.747 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.115 SERIES 682012 AND 682122 168 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.747 SERIES 682071 AND 682072 135 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 21. 91. 153. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.435 0.338 0.452 0.493 0.497 0.468 0.374 SDEV 0.243 0.165 0.103 0.107 0.126 0.149 0.148 SERR 0.099 0.036 0.011 0.009 0.008 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.851 0.869 0.939 0.954 0.956 0.951 0.929 NSS 7.4 13.0 18.7 21.4 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1739 1983 245 0.997 0.151 -0.025 3.153 0.186 -0.155 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.232 0.091 0.053 79 166 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.62 1.01 1.07 1.69 18.21 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.88 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.154 -0.077 0.114 0.036 0.003 0.056 -0.033 -0.154 0.104 0.004 PACF -0.154 -0.104 0.087 0.064 0.038 0.062 -0.023 -0.171 0.033 0.004 95% C.L. 0.128 0.131 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.137 0.138 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.042 -0.170 -0.104 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.016 -0.087 0.113 0.056 0.018 0.054 -0.051 -0.150 0.085 -0.004 PACF -0.016 -0.088 0.111 0.052 0.040 0.053 -0.058 -0.157 0.058 -0.022 95% C.L. 0.128 0.128 0.129 0.130 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.134 0.135 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.008 -0.016 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1739 1983 245 0.998 0.185 0.201 3.215 0.135 0.595 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.593 0.358 0.311 0.225 0.137 0.064 -0.050 -0.122 -0.065 -0.115 PACF 0.593 0.010 0.146 -0.026 -0.021 -0.051 -0.130 -0.071 0.090 -0.104 95% C.L. 0.128 0.167 0.179 0.187 0.192 0.193 0.194 0.194 0.195 0.196 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.352 0.593 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.57 MINUTES