RUN: OR001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: OR044X.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: OR044X.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 682 1 Mt. Ashland, sźdl.Medfor DENSITY_MAXIMUM ABMA - 682 2 United States of America California red fir 1860 4204-12243 1739 198 682 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES --- NO GAPS IN DATA FOUND --- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 682011 1762 1983 222 0.727 0.071 -0.441 2.810 0.077 0.537 2 682012 1764 1983 220 0.779 0.056 -0.564 3.343 0.071 0.295 3 682021 1807 1983 177 0.739 0.099 -1.284 4.129 0.067 0.790 4 682022 1806 1983 178 0.752 0.066 -0.039 3.182 0.061 0.531 5 682031 1849 1983 135 0.788 0.057 -0.482 4.575 0.052 0.551 6 682032 1843 1983 141 0.807 0.044 -0.345 3.805 0.056 0.177 7 682041 1815 1983 169 0.708 0.056 -0.140 2.676 0.056 0.553 8 682042 1802 1983 182 0.628 0.101 -0.044 1.933 0.061 0.869 9 682051 1810 1983 174 0.721 0.064 -0.315 3.153 0.063 0.595 10 682052 1786 1983 198 0.745 0.062 -0.130 3.686 0.063 0.562 11 682061 1828 1983 156 0.813 0.048 -0.688 4.069 0.046 0.527 12 682062 1816 1983 168 0.779 0.051 -0.115 3.082 0.053 0.485 13 682071 1849 1983 135 0.752 0.056 -0.168 3.596 0.071 0.282 14 682072 1849 1983 135 0.735 0.062 -0.227 3.154 0.079 0.377 15 682091 1806 1983 178 0.785 0.058 -0.528 3.378 0.059 0.430 16 682092 1797 1983 187 0.789 0.048 -0.774 4.005 0.064 0.077 17 682101 1745 1983 239 0.740 0.097 -0.746 2.959 0.064 0.797 18 682102 1739 1983 245 0.760 0.060 -0.678 3.865 0.058 0.578 19 682111 1775 1983 209 0.790 0.059 -1.029 4.842 0.056 0.538 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 682112 1774 1983 210 0.823 0.056 -0.606 2.869 0.051 0.514 21 682121 1837 1983 147 0.802 0.050 -0.303 2.678 0.050 0.467 22 682122 1816 1983 168 0.793 0.042 -0.332 3.676 0.041 0.544 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1739 TO 1983 245 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 181 0.762 0.062 -0.454 3.430 0.060 0.503 STANDARD DEVIATION 33 0.044 0.017 0.325 0.678 0.009 0.187 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 177 0.769 0.057 -0.393 3.360 0.060 0.534 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 53 0.051 0.013 0.511 0.906 0.011 0.132 MINIMUM VALUE 135 0.628 0.042 -1.284 1.933 0.041 0.077 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 156 0.739 0.051 -0.678 2.959 0.053 0.430 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 0.790 0.064 -0.168 3.865 0.064 0.562 MAXIMUM VALUE 245 0.823 0.101 -0.039 4.842 0.079 0.869 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.333 0.170 0.011 -0.289 2.769 -0.111 0.742 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.111 SERIES 682011 AND 682031 135 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.742 SERIES 682042 AND 682101 182 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 21. 91. 153. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.542 0.403 0.309 0.288 0.422 0.338 0.330 SDEV 0.187 0.252 0.235 0.233 0.183 0.190 0.214 SERR 0.076 0.055 0.025 0.019 0.012 0.012 0.014 EPS 0.898 0.898 0.893 0.897 0.941 0.918 0.916 NSS 7.4 13.0 18.7 21.4 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1739 1983 245 0.777 0.041 -0.342 3.390 0.045 0.408 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.486 -0.248 0.250 91 154 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.34 0.65 1.02 1.15 1.79 9.77 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.99 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 178. 53. 135. 156. 209. 245. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.407 0.367 0.412 0.352 0.298 0.323 0.357 0.347 0.347 0.312 PACF 0.407 0.241 0.256 0.118 0.044 0.090 0.135 0.110 0.091 0.018 95% C.L. 0.128 0.147 0.162 0.178 0.189 0.197 0.205 0.215 0.224 0.233 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.285 0.213 0.145 0.231 0.123 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 682011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00005037 0.72159147 2 682012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00033880 0.81666499 3 682021 1 0.11132879 0.01820899 0.00000000 0.70595008 4 682022 1 0.14492825 0.01017737 0.00000000 0.68493164 5 682031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00077651 0.84117299 6 682032 1 0.06034155 0.02317229 0.00000000 0.78960425 7 682041 1 0.12401471 0.02802616 0.00000000 0.68269414 8 682042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00158528 0.77274543 9 682051 1 0.13111547 0.02034386 0.00000000 0.68537796 10 682052 1 0.13563491 0.04539804 0.00000000 0.73040432 11 682061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006233 0.80792719 12 682062 1 0.06317998 0.01844919 0.00000000 0.76011837 13 682071 1 0.11000590 0.03686161 0.00000000 0.73044878 14 682072 1 0.10113066 0.01321384 0.00000000 0.68833011 15 682091 1 0.07305108 0.02097514 0.00000000 0.76621455 16 682092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000195 0.78917545 17 682101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00105946 0.86742765 18 682102 1 0.08855934 0.03889332 0.00000000 0.75051934 19 682111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00054657 0.84695941 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 682112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00048961 0.87503439 21 682121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010106 0.79408628 22 682122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00020000 0.77637368 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 682011 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.097 -0.481 2.815 0.077 0.533 2 682012 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.067 -0.580 3.216 0.071 0.172 3 682021 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.129 -1.207 4.081 0.067 0.771 4 682022 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.075 -0.697 5.033 0.061 0.334 5 682031 1849 1983 135 1.000 0.061 -0.132 4.336 0.052 0.382 6 682032 1843 1983 141 1.000 0.051 -0.597 3.748 0.056 0.050 7 682041 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.066 -0.270 2.997 0.056 0.366 8 682042 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.087 -0.256 2.864 0.061 0.559 9 682051 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.076 -0.322 3.483 0.063 0.437 10 682052 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.075 -0.569 3.370 0.063 0.445 11 682061 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.059 -0.709 4.139 0.046 0.522 12 682062 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.062 -0.237 3.087 0.053 0.422 13 682071 1849 1983 135 1.000 0.065 -0.578 3.694 0.070 0.071 14 682072 1849 1983 135 1.000 0.078 -0.525 3.334 0.078 0.262 15 682091 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.071 -0.436 3.521 0.058 0.372 16 682092 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.061 -0.774 4.004 0.064 0.076 17 682101 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.089 -0.205 2.957 0.064 0.524 18 682102 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.076 -0.658 4.079 0.058 0.539 19 682111 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.063 -0.855 4.846 0.056 0.325 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 682112 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.058 -0.590 3.008 0.051 0.322 21 682121 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.062 -0.399 2.799 0.050 0.456 22 682122 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.052 -0.039 3.454 0.041 0.523 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 181 1.000 0.072 -0.505 3.585 0.060 0.385 STANDARD DEVIATION 33 0.000 0.017 0.268 0.640 0.009 0.179 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 177 1.000 0.067 -0.547 3.469 0.060 0.402 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 53 0.000 0.015 0.389 1.071 0.011 0.201 MINIMUM VALUE 135 1.000 0.051 -1.207 2.799 0.041 0.050 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.061 -0.658 3.008 0.053 0.322 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.076 -0.270 4.079 0.064 0.523 MAXIMUM VALUE 245 1.000 0.129 -0.039 5.033 0.078 0.771 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 682011 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 682012 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 682021 -67 118 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 682022 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 682031 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 682032 -67 94 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 682041 -67 113 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 682042 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 682051 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 682052 -67 132 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 682061 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 682062 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 682071 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 682072 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 682091 -67 119 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 682092 -67 125 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 682101 -67 160 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 682102 -67 164 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 682111 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 682112 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 682121 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 682122 -67 112 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 682011 1762 1983 222 0.999 0.083 -0.500 3.066 0.077 0.363 2 682012 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.066 -0.576 3.179 0.071 0.136 3 682021 1807 1983 177 0.999 0.112 -0.838 3.673 0.067 0.691 4 682022 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.069 -0.902 5.586 0.061 0.213 5 682031 1849 1983 135 1.000 0.055 -0.101 5.162 0.052 0.244 6 682032 1843 1983 141 1.000 0.048 -0.584 3.515 0.056 -0.067 7 682041 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.060 -0.280 2.861 0.056 0.231 8 682042 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.075 -0.364 3.496 0.061 0.424 9 682051 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.071 -0.374 3.755 0.063 0.349 10 682052 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.070 -0.533 3.401 0.063 0.366 11 682061 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.057 -0.630 4.041 0.046 0.483 12 682062 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.059 -0.220 3.174 0.053 0.363 13 682071 1849 1983 135 1.000 0.063 -0.601 3.710 0.070 0.011 14 682072 1849 1983 135 1.000 0.075 -0.574 3.408 0.078 0.207 15 682091 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.063 -0.510 3.560 0.058 0.226 16 682092 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.061 -0.845 4.114 0.064 0.060 17 682101 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.075 0.251 4.049 0.064 0.310 18 682102 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.070 -0.630 4.095 0.058 0.454 19 682111 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.058 -0.862 4.663 0.056 0.209 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 682112 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.055 -0.663 3.190 0.051 0.248 21 682121 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.053 -0.410 2.760 0.050 0.279 22 682122 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.042 -0.037 2.800 0.041 0.297 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 181 1.000 0.065 -0.490 3.693 0.060 0.277 STANDARD DEVIATION 33 0.000 0.014 0.286 0.726 0.009 0.165 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 177 1.000 0.063 -0.553 3.538 0.060 0.263 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 53 0.000 0.014 0.266 0.870 0.011 0.154 MINIMUM VALUE 135 0.999 0.042 -0.902 2.760 0.041 -0.067 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.057 -0.630 3.179 0.053 0.209 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.071 -0.364 4.049 0.064 0.363 MAXIMUM VALUE 245 1.000 0.112 0.251 5.586 0.078 0.691 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.354 0.115 0.008 -0.035 3.178 -0.013 0.681 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.013 SERIES 682021 AND 682061 156 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.681 SERIES 682091 AND 682092 178 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 21. 91. 153. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.471 0.410 0.378 0.320 0.370 0.384 0.364 SDEV 0.200 0.220 0.185 0.197 0.177 0.170 0.172 SERR 0.082 0.048 0.019 0.016 0.012 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.869 0.900 0.919 0.910 0.928 0.932 0.926 NSS 7.4 13.0 18.7 21.4 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1739 1983 245 1.002 0.042 -0.902 4.328 0.043 0.099 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.167 -0.074 0.122 74 171 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.68 1.01 1.07 1.76 8.75 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.098 0.073 0.148 0.079 0.004 0.006 0.083 0.026 0.068 -0.004 PACF 0.098 0.063 0.137 0.051 -0.025 -0.021 0.070 0.015 0.063 -0.037 95% C.L. 0.128 0.129 0.130 0.132 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.134 0.134 0.135 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.014 0.099 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.028 0.042 0.171 0.079 0.060 0.059 0.118 -0.023 0.020 -0.046 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.028 2 0.027 0.041 3 0.020 0.037 0.169 4 0.008 0.034 0.168 0.071 5 0.004 0.026 0.166 0.071 0.046 6 0.003 0.025 0.162 0.070 0.046 0.024 7 0.001 0.020 0.155 0.055 0.044 0.024 0.093 8 0.006 0.022 0.158 0.058 0.052 0.025 0.093 -0.052 9 0.005 0.022 0.158 0.058 0.052 0.026 0.093 -0.051 -0.007 10 0.005 0.018 0.166 0.061 0.057 0.032 0.108 -0.049 -0.006 -0.091 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1197.06 1198.87 1200.45 1195.35 1196.10 1197.58 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1199.43 1199.30 1200.65 1202.64 1202.61 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 3 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.020 0.037 0.169 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.10 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.20 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 3) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.020 0.037 0.170 0.008 0.013 0.029 0.002 0.003 0.005 0.0006 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 682011 3 0.195 0.252 0.189 0.129 2 682012 3 0.057 0.099 0.139 0.114 3 682021 3 0.510 0.575 0.045 0.160 4 682022 3 0.083 0.177 0.083 0.153 5 682031 3 0.079 0.210 0.106 0.049 6 682032 3 0.013 -0.066 0.075 0.053 7 682041 3 0.092 0.174 0.142 0.118 8 682042 3 0.230 0.341 0.088 0.158 9 682051 3 0.244 0.182 0.262 0.196 10 682052 3 0.183 0.268 0.192 0.090 11 682061 3 0.260 0.404 0.083 0.121 12 682062 3 0.198 0.312 0.002 0.250 13 682071 3 0.029 0.009 0.164 -0.002 14 682072 3 0.127 0.121 0.263 0.102 15 682091 3 0.162 0.142 0.122 0.275 16 682092 3 0.005 0.060 0.009 0.008 17 682101 3 0.161 0.245 0.079 0.193 18 682102 3 0.260 0.348 0.090 0.193 19 682111 3 0.084 0.178 0.053 0.163 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 682112 3 0.109 0.225 0.019 0.164 21 682121 3 0.110 0.234 0.068 0.154 22 682122 3 0.181 0.258 0.217 -0.094 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 3 0.153 0.216 0.113 0.125 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.111 0.137 0.075 0.085 MEDIAN 3 0.144 0.218 0.089 0.141 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.115 0.126 0.095 0.074 MINIMUM VALUE 3 0.005 -0.066 0.002 -0.094 LOWER HINGE 3 0.083 0.142 0.068 0.090 UPPER HINGE 3 0.198 0.268 0.164 0.164 MAXIMUM VALUE 3 0.510 0.575 0.263 0.275 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 682011 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.075 -0.395 3.039 0.087 -0.011 2 682012 1764 1983 220 1.000 0.064 -0.487 2.965 0.074 -0.007 3 682021 1807 1983 177 1.000 0.079 0.024 4.590 0.085 -0.016 4 682022 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.066 -0.913 5.572 0.066 -0.012 5 682031 1849 1983 135 1.000 0.053 -0.013 4.848 0.058 0.003 6 682032 1843 1983 141 1.000 0.048 -0.582 3.638 0.055 -0.001 7 682041 1815 1983 169 1.000 0.057 -0.255 3.478 0.061 0.001 8 682042 1802 1983 182 1.000 0.066 -0.393 3.880 0.071 -0.020 9 682051 1810 1983 174 1.000 0.062 -0.468 3.629 0.070 -0.016 10 682052 1786 1983 198 1.000 0.063 -0.281 3.403 0.071 -0.004 11 682061 1828 1983 156 1.000 0.049 -0.745 4.144 0.055 0.002 12 682062 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.053 -0.517 3.838 0.058 0.017 13 682071 1849 1983 135 1.000 0.062 -0.559 3.522 0.071 -0.001 14 682072 1849 1983 135 1.000 0.071 -0.540 3.032 0.082 0.002 15 682091 1806 1983 178 1.000 0.058 -0.606 3.981 0.062 -0.027 16 682092 1797 1983 187 1.000 0.060 -0.869 4.162 0.065 0.000 17 682101 1745 1983 239 1.000 0.070 0.649 5.517 0.072 -0.025 18 682102 1739 1983 245 1.000 0.060 -0.275 3.548 0.067 -0.016 19 682111 1775 1983 209 1.000 0.056 -0.901 4.976 0.062 -0.013 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 682112 1774 1983 210 1.000 0.052 -0.627 3.403 0.058 -0.026 21 682121 1837 1983 147 1.000 0.050 -0.347 2.727 0.056 -0.001 22 682122 1816 1983 168 1.000 0.039 -0.103 2.755 0.046 -0.022 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 181 1.000 0.060 -0.418 3.848 0.066 -0.009 STANDARD DEVIATION 33 0.000 0.009 0.353 0.821 0.010 0.011 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 177 1.000 0.060 -0.477 3.634 0.066 -0.009 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 53 0.000 0.013 0.331 0.759 0.014 0.016 MINIMUM VALUE 135 1.000 0.039 -0.913 2.727 0.046 -0.027 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.053 -0.606 3.403 0.058 -0.016 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 209 1.000 0.066 -0.275 4.162 0.071 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 245 1.000 0.079 0.649 5.572 0.087 0.017 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.425 0.095 0.006 0.097 4.064 0.132 0.761 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.132 SERIES 682062 AND 682071 135 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.761 SERIES 682091 AND 682092 178 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 65.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1790. 1815. 1840. 1865. 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 6. 21. 91. 153. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.449 0.455 0.412 0.417 0.413 0.449 0.447 SDEV 0.215 0.167 0.141 0.144 0.135 0.137 0.139 SERR 0.088 0.036 0.015 0.012 0.009 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.858 0.916 0.929 0.939 0.939 0.947 0.947 NSS 7.4 13.0 18.7 21.4 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1739 1983 245 1.001 0.041 -0.723 4.258 0.048 -0.119 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.218 -0.088 0.128 65 180 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.53 1.00 1.08 1.61 21.53 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.119 -0.072 -0.020 0.025 -0.064 -0.039 0.057 -0.008 0.021 -0.048 PACF -0.119 -0.088 -0.041 0.011 -0.065 -0.055 0.036 -0.008 0.026 -0.044 95% C.L. 0.128 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.132 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.022 -0.119 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.002 -0.007 0.000 -0.069 -0.041 0.047 -0.007 0.025 -0.031 PACF 0.000 -0.002 -0.007 0.000 -0.069 -0.041 0.047 -0.008 0.025 -0.035 95% C.L. 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.129 0.129 0.129 0.129 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1739 1983 245 1.001 0.041 -0.839 4.367 0.045 0.027 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.027 0.029 0.153 0.015 -0.054 -0.004 0.043 -0.008 0.047 -0.017 PACF 0.027 0.029 0.151 0.007 -0.065 -0.026 0.045 0.010 0.051 -0.037 95% C.L. 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.132 0.132 0.132 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.25 MINUTES