RUN: OR001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: OR045L.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: OR045L.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 681 1 Mt.Hood, Timberline Lodg WIDTH_LATE TSME - 681 2 United States of America mountain hemlock 1600 4520-12141 1706 1983 681 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 13 681081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1899 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 681111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 6 GAPS / 1797 1797 / 1880 1880 / 1898 1898 / 1917 1917 / / 1932 1932 / 1961 1969 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 681112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1899 1899 / 1942 1942 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 681011 1730 1983 254 0.242 0.132 2.314 13.534 0.262 0.579 2 681012 1753 1983 231 0.207 0.124 3.225 17.077 0.297 0.598 3 681021 1850 1983 134 0.137 0.073 2.908 14.007 0.240 0.819 4 681022 1792 1983 192 0.197 0.177 2.195 9.657 0.299 0.666 5 681031 1780 1983 204 0.361 0.213 1.437 5.574 0.379 0.494 6 681032 1762 1983 222 0.312 0.246 2.033 7.621 0.322 0.747 7 681051 1724 1982 259 0.255 0.134 2.474 11.269 0.263 0.602 8 681052 1720 1983 264 0.275 0.201 2.430 11.162 0.307 0.717 9 681061 1732 1983 252 0.200 0.186 9.380 98.920 0.269 0.600 10 681062 1758 1983 226 0.167 0.048 0.825 3.813 0.213 0.478 11 681071 1759 1966 208 0.249 0.127 2.006 9.474 0.344 0.363 12 681072 1790 1983 194 0.348 0.325 2.612 10.534 0.395 0.650 13 681081 1855 1983 129 0.198 0.107 2.005 8.217 0.317 0.432 14 681082 1827 1983 157 0.171 0.091 1.762 8.509 0.323 0.616 15 681091 1818 1983 166 0.305 0.187 1.936 7.409 0.353 0.559 16 681092 1813 1983 171 0.277 0.212 3.163 13.752 0.314 0.615 17 681111 1726 1982 257 0.216 0.137 1.998 7.640 0.342 0.659 18 681112 1737 1983 247 0.247 0.227 4.452 25.516 0.273 0.796 19 681121 1709 1983 275 0.254 0.108 1.657 7.529 0.278 0.526 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 681122 1706 1983 278 0.277 0.146 1.270 4.769 0.336 0.622 21 681131 1741 1983 243 0.400 0.275 1.341 4.786 0.400 0.516 22 681132 1746 1983 238 0.340 0.218 1.701 6.287 0.418 0.518 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1706 TO 1983 278 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 0.256 0.168 2.506 13.957 0.316 0.599 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.068 0.068 1.724 19.585 0.053 0.112 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 228 0.251 0.162 2.020 8.992 0.316 0.601 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.105 0.088 0.911 6.124 0.070 0.140 MINIMUM VALUE 128 0.137 0.048 0.825 3.813 0.213 0.363 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 0.200 0.124 1.701 7.409 0.273 0.518 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 252 0.305 0.213 2.612 13.534 0.344 0.659 MAXIMUM VALUE 278 0.400 0.325 9.380 98.920 0.418 0.819 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.275 0.185 0.012 -0.261 3.096 -0.292 0.783 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.292 SERIES 681011 AND 681091 166 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.783 SERIES 681131 AND 681132 238 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.99 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 21. 78. 105. 136. 190. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.298 0.331 0.154 0.151 0.141 0.212 0.293 0.256 SDEV 0.228 0.208 0.185 0.214 0.223 0.180 0.217 0.257 SERR 0.050 0.024 0.018 0.018 0.016 0.012 0.014 0.017 EPS 0.835 0.884 0.764 0.779 0.777 0.855 0.901 0.883 NSS 11.9 15.3 17.7 19.7 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1983 278 0.261 0.124 1.715 6.803 0.201 0.735 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.547 0.297 0.025 186 92 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.26 2.60 1.00 1.37 3.97 48.05 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.13 0.00 0.86 0.99 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 228. 62. 129. 192. 254. 278. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.733 0.658 0.600 0.621 0.585 0.636 0.606 0.590 0.521 0.514 PACF 0.733 0.261 0.121 0.229 0.060 0.238 0.052 0.042 -0.071 0.001 95% C.L. 0.120 0.173 0.206 0.229 0.252 0.271 0.292 0.309 0.325 0.337 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.652 0.440 0.085 -0.003 0.145 -0.031 0.283 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 681011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00103402 0.37404189 2 681012 1 0.20721261 0.04624413 0.00000000 0.18771498 3 681021 1 0.15071847 0.03348638 0.00000000 0.10473116 4 681022 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 681031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00167452 0.53281510 6 681032 1 0.68795079 0.02776078 0.00000000 0.20195188 7 681051 1 0.45546111 0.03622603 0.00000000 0.20727791 8 681052 1 0.51745480 0.00850611 0.00000000 0.07008430 9 681061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00047373 0.25984758 10 681062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002307 0.16388555 11 681071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00097901 0.35144091 12 681072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00179055 0.52210456 13 681081 1 0.30716032 0.01095596 0.00000000 0.03368365 14 681082 1 0.15457238 0.03009181 0.00000000 0.13869601 15 681091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00112677 0.21121576 16 681092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00130417 0.38917646 17 681111 1 0.33081213 0.00973403 0.00000000 0.09080740 18 681112 1 0.46888223 0.00727327 0.00000000 0.02925686 19 681121 1 0.27444121 0.04888190 0.00000000 0.23393400 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 681122 1 0.34681466 0.01114123 0.00000000 0.17084436 21 681131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00181794 0.62145936 22 681132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00142078 0.50957346 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 681011 1730 1983 254 0.997 0.386 1.728 8.995 0.261 0.425 2 681012 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.581 3.784 22.998 0.296 0.605 3 681021 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.409 1.653 5.705 0.239 0.695 4 681022 1792 1983 192 0.998 0.373 2.187 13.588 0.299 0.250 5 681031 1780 1983 204 0.990 0.517 1.905 7.951 0.377 0.346 6 681032 1762 1983 222 1.002 0.599 1.715 7.066 0.321 0.628 7 681051 1724 1982 259 1.000 0.372 2.001 9.998 0.262 0.410 8 681052 1720 1983 264 0.995 0.548 3.662 22.746 0.307 0.483 9 681061 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.780 8.443 85.665 0.268 0.570 10 681062 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.287 0.832 3.856 0.212 0.475 11 681071 1759 1966 208 0.999 0.431 1.724 6.411 0.342 0.224 12 681072 1790 1983 194 0.979 0.830 2.867 12.488 0.393 0.618 13 681081 1855 1983 129 1.001 0.396 2.012 9.865 0.326 0.147 14 681082 1827 1983 157 0.999 0.501 1.890 8.034 0.321 0.583 15 681091 1818 1983 166 0.999 0.577 2.032 8.620 0.351 0.516 16 681092 1813 1983 171 0.994 0.658 3.072 13.399 0.312 0.553 17 681111 1726 1982 257 1.000 0.437 1.050 4.225 0.343 0.430 18 681112 1737 1983 247 1.005 0.592 3.693 19.760 0.277 0.664 19 681121 1709 1983 275 1.000 0.380 1.356 6.436 0.277 0.444 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 681122 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.444 1.817 9.609 0.335 0.420 21 681131 1741 1983 243 0.978 0.596 1.467 4.795 0.399 0.418 22 681132 1746 1983 238 0.998 0.554 1.809 7.055 0.417 0.339 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 218 0.997 0.511 2.395 13.603 0.315 0.466 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.007 0.136 1.577 16.998 0.053 0.145 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 228 1.000 0.509 1.897 8.807 0.316 0.459 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 62 0.004 0.196 1.151 6.963 0.067 0.173 MINIMUM VALUE 129 0.978 0.287 0.832 3.856 0.212 0.147 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 0.997 0.396 1.715 6.436 0.277 0.410 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.592 2.867 13.399 0.343 0.583 MAXIMUM VALUE 278 1.005 0.830 8.443 85.665 0.417 0.695 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 681011 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 681012 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 681021 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 681022 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 681031 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 681032 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 681051 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 681052 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 681061 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 681062 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 681071 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 681072 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 681081 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 681082 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 681091 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 681092 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 681111 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 681112 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 681121 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 681122 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 681131 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 681132 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 681011 1730 1983 254 0.995 0.363 1.979 11.382 0.261 0.355 2 681012 1753 1983 231 0.995 0.496 3.145 18.242 0.297 0.541 3 681021 1850 1983 134 0.995 0.374 1.689 6.351 0.239 0.643 4 681022 1792 1983 192 0.999 0.363 2.119 12.813 0.299 0.210 5 681031 1780 1983 204 0.997 0.471 1.529 5.916 0.377 0.274 6 681032 1762 1983 222 0.989 0.475 1.465 5.428 0.322 0.490 7 681051 1724 1982 259 0.998 0.319 1.981 9.427 0.262 0.266 8 681052 1720 1983 264 0.995 0.500 3.317 19.894 0.307 0.440 9 681061 1732 1983 252 0.994 0.739 8.420 85.489 0.268 0.559 10 681062 1758 1983 226 0.995 0.255 0.701 3.368 0.212 0.365 11 681071 1759 1966 208 1.000 0.433 1.802 6.827 0.342 0.219 12 681072 1790 1983 194 0.996 0.680 2.385 10.361 0.393 0.564 13 681081 1855 1983 129 0.996 0.373 1.860 8.693 0.326 0.081 14 681082 1827 1983 157 0.989 0.404 1.472 6.812 0.321 0.424 15 681091 1818 1983 166 0.993 0.544 1.866 7.874 0.351 0.480 16 681092 1813 1983 171 0.994 0.590 2.792 12.061 0.312 0.514 17 681111 1726 1982 257 0.997 0.425 1.027 4.213 0.343 0.412 18 681112 1737 1983 247 0.996 0.538 3.390 18.143 0.277 0.642 19 681121 1709 1983 275 0.998 0.366 1.280 5.930 0.277 0.394 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 681122 1706 1983 278 0.997 0.427 1.696 8.922 0.335 0.392 21 681131 1741 1983 243 0.996 0.523 1.312 4.261 0.399 0.321 22 681132 1746 1983 238 0.995 0.539 1.975 8.701 0.417 0.289 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 218 0.995 0.464 2.236 12.778 0.315 0.403 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.003 0.116 1.550 16.879 0.053 0.146 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 228 0.996 0.452 1.863 8.697 0.317 0.403 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 62 0.002 0.165 0.913 6.131 0.067 0.225 MINIMUM VALUE 129 0.989 0.255 0.701 3.368 0.212 0.081 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 0.995 0.373 1.472 5.930 0.277 0.289 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 0.997 0.538 2.385 12.061 0.343 0.514 MAXIMUM VALUE 278 1.000 0.739 8.420 85.489 0.417 0.643 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.177 0.127 0.008 0.395 3.931 -0.131 0.738 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.131 SERIES 681011 AND 681091 166 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.738 SERIES 681131 AND 681132 238 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.99 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 21. 78. 105. 136. 190. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.325 0.283 0.171 0.159 0.144 0.215 0.247 0.217 SDEV 0.213 0.205 0.189 0.203 0.210 0.181 0.210 0.203 SERR 0.047 0.023 0.018 0.017 0.015 0.012 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.851 0.858 0.785 0.789 0.781 0.858 0.878 0.859 NSS 11.9 15.3 17.7 19.7 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1983 278 0.948 0.227 0.663 3.390 0.211 0.325 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.619 0.381 -0.066 147 131 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.61 1.82 1.01 1.18 3.00 86.41 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.10 0.00 0.88 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.324 0.146 0.116 0.076 0.057 0.137 0.002 -0.029 0.009 0.029 PACF 0.324 0.046 0.063 0.018 0.019 0.116 -0.093 -0.029 0.018 0.028 95% C.L. 0.120 0.132 0.134 0.136 0.136 0.137 0.139 0.139 0.139 0.139 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.107 0.325 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.296 0.150 0.067 0.072 0.017 0.092 -0.020 -0.027 0.021 0.065 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.296 2 0.276 0.068 3 0.275 0.067 0.006 4 0.275 0.064 -0.007 0.046 5 0.276 0.063 -0.005 0.052 -0.022 6 0.278 0.059 -0.005 0.046 -0.047 0.091 7 0.285 0.055 -0.001 0.046 -0.043 0.112 -0.077 8 0.283 0.058 -0.002 0.047 -0.043 0.113 -0.070 -0.024 9 0.284 0.061 -0.007 0.049 -0.045 0.114 -0.073 -0.037 0.047 10 0.282 0.063 -0.004 0.043 -0.042 0.111 -0.073 -0.040 0.032 0.051 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2328.39 2304.89 2305.59 2307.58 2308.99 2310.86 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2310.56 2310.90 2312.75 2314.13 2315.42 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.296 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.76 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 109.61 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.296 0.088 0.026 0.008 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 681011 1 0.128 0.356 2 681012 1 0.295 0.542 3 681021 1 0.427 0.652 4 681022 1 0.045 0.210 5 681031 1 0.083 0.277 6 681032 1 0.248 0.491 7 681051 1 0.088 0.269 8 681052 1 0.200 0.440 9 681061 1 0.346 0.559 10 681062 1 0.157 0.378 11 681071 1 0.052 0.219 12 681072 1 0.330 0.566 13 681081 1 0.011 0.083 14 681082 1 0.184 0.427 15 681091 1 0.241 0.486 16 681092 1 0.266 0.515 17 681111 1 0.172 0.415 18 681112 1 0.433 0.643 19 681121 1 0.172 0.396 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 681122 1 0.169 0.393 21 681131 1 0.114 0.329 22 681132 1 0.113 0.290 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.194 0.406 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.118 0.146 MEDIAN 1 0.172 0.406 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.153 0.226 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.011 0.083 LOWER HINGE 1 0.113 0.290 UPPER HINGE 1 0.266 0.515 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.433 0.652 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 681011 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.340 2.109 12.670 0.314 -0.013 2 681012 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.417 2.338 12.947 0.377 0.022 3 681021 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.283 0.921 4.830 0.309 0.028 4 681022 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.355 2.134 12.627 0.334 -0.007 5 681031 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.453 1.513 5.831 0.423 -0.020 6 681032 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.414 1.306 5.763 0.414 -0.047 7 681051 1724 1982 259 1.000 0.307 1.978 10.073 0.304 -0.037 8 681052 1720 1983 264 1.001 0.446 2.568 14.214 0.389 0.054 9 681061 1732 1983 252 1.013 0.556 6.906 63.945 0.331 0.337 10 681062 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.235 0.863 3.934 0.251 -0.053 11 681071 1759 1966 208 1.000 0.422 1.934 7.881 0.383 0.013 12 681072 1790 1983 194 1.004 0.552 2.140 10.641 0.518 -0.039 13 681081 1855 1983 129 1.000 0.372 1.971 9.376 0.337 -0.007 14 681082 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.365 1.418 6.722 0.385 -0.021 15 681091 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.474 1.861 8.610 0.440 -0.041 16 681092 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.506 3.044 15.902 0.420 0.010 17 681111 1726 1982 257 1.000 0.387 1.210 5.786 0.399 -0.005 18 681112 1737 1983 247 1.002 0.407 2.830 19.809 0.383 -0.093 19 681121 1709 1983 275 1.000 0.336 1.439 7.349 0.335 -0.052 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 681122 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.392 1.493 7.749 0.406 -0.050 21 681131 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.493 1.355 4.559 0.469 -0.026 22 681132 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.516 2.085 9.800 0.481 -0.051 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 218 1.001 0.410 2.064 11.865 0.382 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.003 0.085 1.223 12.309 0.064 0.083 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 228 1.000 0.410 1.952 8.993 0.384 -0.021 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 62 0.000 0.119 0.722 6.839 0.086 0.057 MINIMUM VALUE 129 1.000 0.235 0.863 3.934 0.251 -0.093 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 1.000 0.355 1.418 5.831 0.334 -0.047 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.474 2.140 12.670 0.420 0.010 MAXIMUM VALUE 278 1.013 0.556 6.906 63.945 0.518 0.337 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.208 0.118 0.008 0.512 4.146 -0.083 0.734 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.083 SERIES 681071 AND 681082 140 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.734 SERIES 681131 AND 681132 238 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.99 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 21. 78. 105. 136. 190. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.295 0.240 0.202 0.212 0.182 0.266 0.312 0.239 SDEV 0.217 0.219 0.162 0.181 0.175 0.151 0.179 0.194 SERR 0.047 0.025 0.016 0.015 0.013 0.010 0.012 0.013 EPS 0.833 0.829 0.817 0.841 0.826 0.889 0.909 0.873 NSS 11.9 15.3 17.7 19.7 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1983 278 0.962 0.206 0.611 3.515 0.249 -0.107 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.527 0.314 -0.038 152 126 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.52 1.20 1.00 1.18 2.38 36.10 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.107 0.008 -0.018 0.048 -0.048 0.163 -0.049 -0.024 0.018 0.065 PACF -0.107 -0.003 -0.018 0.044 -0.039 0.156 -0.016 -0.034 0.021 0.055 95% C.L. 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.012 -0.107 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 -0.005 -0.014 0.041 -0.026 0.156 -0.036 -0.028 0.023 0.063 PACF 0.000 -0.005 -0.014 0.041 -0.027 0.157 -0.037 -0.028 0.030 0.049 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.123 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1983 278 0.961 0.214 0.677 3.560 0.205 0.295 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.293 0.083 0.022 0.048 0.028 0.139 0.002 -0.014 0.030 0.054 PACF 0.293 -0.004 -0.001 0.046 0.001 0.139 -0.085 -0.003 0.045 0.024 95% C.L. 0.120 0.130 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.131 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.087 0.294 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.37 MINUTES