RUN: OR001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: OR045N.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: OR045N.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 681 1 Mt.Hood, Timberline Lodg DENSITY_MINIMUM TSME - 681 2 United States of America mountain hemlock 1600 4520-12141 1706 1983 681 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 681011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1845 1849 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 681032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1847 1851 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 681081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1899 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 681111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 21 IN 7 GAPS / 1735 1741 / 1797 1797 / 1880 1880 / 1898 1898 / / 1917 1917 / 1932 1932 / 1961 1969 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 681112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1899 1899 / 1942 1942 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 681121 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1733 1738 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 681122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1766 1770 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 681011 1730 1983 254 0.309 0.030 1.020 4.628 0.066 0.508 2 681012 1753 1983 231 0.283 0.025 1.117 5.797 0.062 0.444 3 681021 1850 1983 134 0.301 0.033 1.295 5.215 0.095 0.233 4 681022 1792 1983 192 0.254 0.021 0.799 5.133 0.083 0.030 5 681031 1780 1983 204 0.309 0.027 1.138 5.616 0.074 0.224 6 681032 1762 1983 222 0.289 0.037 1.423 7.503 0.069 0.645 7 681051 1724 1982 259 0.330 0.033 1.047 5.210 0.067 0.527 8 681052 1720 1983 264 0.330 0.032 1.182 5.262 0.072 0.437 9 681061 1732 1983 252 0.310 0.037 1.353 6.708 0.061 0.727 10 681062 1758 1983 226 0.302 0.026 0.837 3.874 0.060 0.517 11 681071 1759 1966 208 0.313 0.023 0.369 4.338 0.066 0.281 12 681072 1790 1983 194 0.316 0.044 1.073 3.991 0.072 0.710 13 681081 1855 1983 129 0.289 0.036 0.956 5.018 0.088 0.399 14 681082 1827 1983 157 0.288 0.038 1.729 6.825 0.094 0.403 15 681091 1818 1983 166 0.324 0.048 2.360 10.868 0.065 0.770 16 681092 1813 1983 171 0.353 0.051 2.817 13.753 0.070 0.630 17 681111 1726 1982 257 0.365 0.045 0.948 3.810 0.106 0.264 18 681112 1737 1983 247 0.338 0.050 1.252 4.666 0.128 0.210 19 681121 1709 1983 275 0.336 0.040 0.992 4.056 0.092 0.297 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 681122 1706 1983 278 0.370 0.042 1.415 5.912 0.094 0.238 21 681131 1741 1983 243 0.302 0.029 0.528 3.230 0.066 0.564 22 681132 1746 1983 238 0.300 0.026 0.429 3.491 0.063 0.492 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1706 TO 1983 278 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 216 0.314 0.035 1.185 5.678 0.078 0.434 STANDARD DEVIATION 43 0.028 0.009 0.563 2.451 0.018 0.196 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 228 0.310 0.035 1.095 5.172 0.071 0.440 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 57 0.030 0.015 0.404 1.856 0.026 0.300 MINIMUM VALUE 128 0.254 0.021 0.369 3.230 0.060 0.030 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 0.300 0.027 0.948 4.056 0.066 0.264 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 249 0.330 0.042 1.353 5.912 0.092 0.564 MAXIMUM VALUE 273 0.370 0.051 2.817 13.753 0.128 0.770 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.242 0.209 0.014 -0.459 2.980 -0.317 0.806 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.317 SERIES 681082 AND 681092 157 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.806 SERIES 681091 AND 681092 166 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.99 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 21. 78. 105. 136. 190. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.398 0.232 0.390 0.322 0.232 0.355 0.363 0.308 SDEV 0.175 0.196 0.196 0.186 0.214 0.210 0.200 0.172 SERR 0.038 0.022 0.019 0.016 0.016 0.014 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.887 0.822 0.919 0.904 0.866 0.924 0.926 0.907 NSS 11.9 15.3 17.7 19.7 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1983 278 0.320 0.027 1.331 4.944 0.049 0.682 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.194 -0.092 0.063 126 152 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.81 1.00 1.07 1.88 16.01 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.10 0.00 0.88 0.97 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 228. 62. 129. 192. 254. 278. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.679 0.636 0.606 0.566 0.556 0.471 0.471 0.470 0.526 0.455 PACF 0.679 0.324 0.194 0.097 0.106 -0.073 0.055 0.081 0.214 -0.057 95% C.L. 0.120 0.166 0.198 0.223 0.243 0.261 0.273 0.284 0.295 0.308 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.583 0.308 0.188 0.134 0.103 0.154 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 681011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021128 0.28168061 2 681012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00018099 0.26151592 3 681021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00006299 0.30529684 4 681022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006042 0.24776341 5 681031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00002921 0.31216073 6 681032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00038307 0.33108050 7 681051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00007533 0.31997487 8 681052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00010013 0.31624064 9 681061 1 0.11973063 0.00521363 0.00000000 0.24337895 10 681062 1 0.07324343 0.05242142 0.00000000 0.29561552 11 681071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00003074 0.31585702 12 681072 1 0.11912406 0.01765318 0.00000000 0.28277907 13 681081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00024648 0.27369162 14 681082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00030458 0.26364526 15 681091 1 0.21862619 0.07028164 0.00000000 0.30582762 16 681092 1 0.21312781 0.06474546 0.00000000 0.33446628 17 681111 1 0.04387665 0.08090235 0.00000000 0.36337116 18 681112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00000547 0.33725494 19 681121 1 0.08118536 0.06031674 0.00000000 0.33111086 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 681122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00011296 0.35402703 21 681131 1 0.07100120 0.00801610 0.00000000 0.27126133 22 681132 1 0.05033414 0.03559465 0.00000000 0.29399687 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 681011 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.084 0.825 4.358 0.065 0.378 2 681012 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.076 1.240 6.922 0.062 0.285 3 681021 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.111 1.289 5.158 0.095 0.228 4 681022 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.082 0.753 5.291 0.083 0.009 5 681031 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.087 1.180 5.672 0.074 0.218 6 681032 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.094 2.119 12.387 0.069 0.374 7 681051 1724 1982 259 1.000 0.099 1.217 6.041 0.067 0.514 8 681052 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.095 1.182 4.971 0.072 0.412 9 681061 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.085 1.449 7.038 0.061 0.470 10 681062 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.075 1.045 5.095 0.059 0.379 11 681071 1759 1966 208 1.000 0.075 0.389 4.395 0.066 0.278 12 681072 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.101 1.336 5.088 0.071 0.459 13 681081 1855 1983 129 1.000 0.121 1.023 5.355 0.092 0.330 14 681082 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.122 1.741 7.220 0.094 0.310 15 681091 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.081 1.078 4.520 0.064 0.321 16 681092 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.082 0.946 4.362 0.070 0.236 17 681111 1726 1982 257 1.000 0.120 1.037 4.109 0.104 0.260 18 681112 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.148 1.243 4.586 0.131 0.181 19 681121 1709 1983 275 1.000 0.113 1.244 5.085 0.091 0.220 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 681122 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.110 1.227 5.519 0.093 0.222 21 681131 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.079 0.570 3.089 0.066 0.328 22 681132 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.081 0.515 4.372 0.063 0.392 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 218 1.000 0.096 1.120 5.483 0.078 0.309 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.020 0.385 1.835 0.018 0.113 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 228 1.000 0.091 1.181 5.092 0.071 0.316 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 62 0.000 0.030 0.297 1.277 0.026 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 129 1.000 0.075 0.389 3.089 0.059 0.009 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 1.000 0.081 0.946 4.395 0.065 0.228 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.111 1.244 5.672 0.092 0.379 MAXIMUM VALUE 278 1.000 0.148 2.119 12.387 0.131 0.514 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 681011 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 681012 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 681021 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 681022 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 681031 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 681032 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 681051 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 681052 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 681061 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 681062 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 681071 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 681072 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 681081 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 681082 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 681091 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 681092 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 681111 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 681112 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 681121 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 681122 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 681131 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 681132 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 681011 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.076 0.944 4.984 0.066 0.245 2 681012 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.075 1.214 6.838 0.062 0.264 3 681021 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.108 1.197 4.850 0.095 0.206 4 681022 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.081 0.736 5.268 0.083 -0.022 5 681031 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.083 1.456 6.610 0.074 0.152 6 681032 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.092 2.105 12.354 0.069 0.340 7 681051 1724 1982 259 1.000 0.079 1.142 5.080 0.067 0.280 8 681052 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.089 1.364 5.912 0.072 0.343 9 681061 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.084 1.465 7.193 0.061 0.454 10 681062 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.069 1.043 4.884 0.059 0.264 11 681071 1759 1966 208 1.000 0.070 0.414 4.046 0.066 0.203 12 681072 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.098 1.297 5.091 0.071 0.418 13 681081 1855 1983 129 0.999 0.108 1.696 7.806 0.092 0.126 14 681082 1827 1983 157 0.999 0.106 1.257 6.139 0.094 0.151 15 681091 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.077 1.266 5.276 0.064 0.248 16 681092 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.075 1.257 5.793 0.070 0.082 17 681111 1726 1982 257 1.000 0.117 1.075 4.298 0.104 0.221 18 681112 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.140 1.323 4.925 0.131 0.078 19 681121 1709 1983 275 1.000 0.108 1.309 5.396 0.091 0.164 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 681122 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.107 1.390 5.967 0.093 0.171 21 681131 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.077 0.625 3.228 0.066 0.292 22 681132 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.078 0.528 4.716 0.063 0.353 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 218 1.000 0.091 1.187 5.757 0.078 0.229 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.018 0.380 1.810 0.018 0.115 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 228 1.000 0.084 1.257 5.272 0.071 0.233 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 62 0.000 0.030 0.321 1.255 0.027 0.140 MINIMUM VALUE 129 0.999 0.069 0.414 3.228 0.059 -0.022 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 1.000 0.077 1.043 4.884 0.066 0.152 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.107 1.364 6.139 0.092 0.292 MAXIMUM VALUE 278 1.000 0.140 2.105 12.354 0.131 0.454 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.311 0.132 0.009 -0.906 4.186 -0.150 0.592 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.150 SERIES 681071 AND 681082 140 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.592 SERIES 681021 AND 681121 134 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.99 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 21. 78. 105. 136. 190. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.340 0.219 0.408 0.329 0.250 0.371 0.381 0.316 SDEV 0.177 0.174 0.182 0.176 0.209 0.209 0.195 0.167 SERR 0.039 0.020 0.018 0.015 0.015 0.014 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.860 0.811 0.924 0.906 0.877 0.929 0.931 0.910 NSS 11.9 15.3 17.7 19.7 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1983 278 0.995 0.054 1.047 5.074 0.048 0.222 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.502 0.220 -0.156 115 163 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.45 1.23 1.00 1.15 2.38 8.10 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.221 0.147 0.090 0.110 0.107 -0.069 0.029 -0.009 0.202 0.056 PACF 0.221 0.103 0.040 0.074 0.062 -0.133 0.043 -0.016 0.214 -0.017 95% C.L. 0.120 0.126 0.128 0.129 0.130 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.132 0.137 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.061 0.198 0.105 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.172 0.134 0.082 0.115 0.081 -0.126 0.038 -0.067 0.147 0.036 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.172 2 0.153 0.107 3 0.149 0.100 0.044 4 0.145 0.092 0.032 0.086 5 0.141 0.091 0.028 0.080 0.040 6 0.148 0.105 0.033 0.096 0.065 -0.177 7 0.160 0.101 0.027 0.094 0.058 -0.186 0.064 8 0.164 0.087 0.031 0.100 0.060 -0.179 0.075 -0.070 9 0.176 0.074 0.062 0.090 0.042 -0.184 0.060 -0.099 0.176 10 0.172 0.077 0.061 0.094 0.041 -0.186 0.058 -0.101 0.172 0.023 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1557.80 1551.47 1550.26 1551.71 1551.66 1553.22 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1546.42 1547.29 1547.92 1541.20 1543.06 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.153 0.107 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 4.06 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 104.24 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.153 0.131 0.036 0.020 0.007 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 681011 2 0.071 0.232 0.067 2 681012 2 0.077 0.250 0.071 3 681021 2 0.072 0.193 0.065 4 681022 2 0.005 -0.021 0.025 5 681031 2 0.035 0.141 0.073 6 681032 2 0.127 0.305 0.105 7 681051 2 0.090 0.273 0.040 8 681052 2 0.166 0.265 0.230 9 681061 2 0.220 0.410 0.107 10 681062 2 0.093 0.224 0.153 11 681071 2 0.068 0.175 0.160 12 681072 2 0.250 0.322 0.260 13 681081 2 0.057 0.110 0.136 14 681082 2 0.086 0.123 0.185 15 681091 2 0.084 0.238 0.045 16 681092 2 0.024 0.082 -0.003 17 681111 2 0.072 0.206 0.081 18 681112 2 0.013 0.080 -0.018 19 681121 2 0.038 0.154 0.059 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 681122 2 0.045 0.152 0.113 21 681131 2 0.126 0.234 0.200 22 681132 2 0.189 0.266 0.249 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.091 0.201 0.109 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.065 0.095 0.079 MEDIAN 2 0.075 0.215 0.093 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.082 0.124 0.101 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.005 -0.021 -0.018 LOWER HINGE 2 0.045 0.141 0.059 UPPER HINGE 2 0.126 0.265 0.160 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.250 0.410 0.260 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 681011 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.073 1.025 5.377 0.075 0.008 2 681012 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.072 1.512 8.056 0.072 0.002 3 681021 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.105 1.386 5.759 0.104 -0.011 4 681022 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.081 0.724 5.195 0.082 -0.001 5 681031 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.082 1.684 7.294 0.079 -0.006 6 681032 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.086 2.407 14.940 0.081 -0.004 7 681051 1724 1982 259 1.000 0.076 1.080 5.456 0.078 -0.006 8 681052 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.082 1.421 7.275 0.082 -0.007 9 681061 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.074 1.791 9.409 0.077 0.005 10 681062 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.065 1.131 5.740 0.066 0.005 11 681071 1759 1966 208 1.000 0.068 0.534 4.254 0.072 0.004 12 681072 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.085 1.324 6.390 0.083 0.023 13 681081 1855 1983 129 1.000 0.106 2.105 10.041 0.099 -0.021 14 681082 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.103 1.482 7.264 0.100 -0.033 15 681091 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.074 1.372 5.781 0.073 -0.007 16 681092 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.074 1.306 6.234 0.073 0.000 17 681111 1726 1982 257 1.000 0.113 1.114 4.487 0.116 -0.009 18 681112 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.139 1.295 4.908 0.136 0.001 19 681121 1709 1983 275 1.000 0.107 1.562 6.465 0.101 -0.005 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 681122 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.104 1.408 6.330 0.101 -0.007 21 681131 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.072 0.627 4.203 0.075 -0.013 22 681132 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.071 1.022 6.608 0.071 -0.028 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 218 1.000 0.087 1.332 6.703 0.086 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.019 0.440 2.373 0.017 0.012 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 228 1.000 0.081 1.348 6.282 0.080 -0.006 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 62 0.000 0.031 0.432 1.898 0.026 0.011 MINIMUM VALUE 129 1.000 0.065 0.534 4.203 0.066 -0.033 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 1.000 0.073 1.080 5.377 0.073 -0.009 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.104 1.512 7.275 0.100 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 278 1.000 0.139 2.407 14.940 0.136 0.023 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.322 0.131 0.009 -0.974 4.310 -0.109 0.624 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.109 SERIES 681071 AND 681082 140 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.624 SERIES 681131 AND 681132 238 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.99 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 21. 78. 105. 136. 190. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.359 0.200 0.357 0.331 0.268 0.408 0.417 0.295 SDEV 0.142 0.175 0.166 0.152 0.206 0.212 0.199 0.166 SERR 0.031 0.020 0.016 0.013 0.015 0.014 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.869 0.793 0.908 0.907 0.886 0.938 0.940 0.902 NSS 11.9 15.3 17.7 19.7 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1983 278 0.995 0.051 1.246 6.338 0.052 -0.010 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.522 0.238 -0.179 110 168 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.59 1.27 1.00 1.22 2.49 13.39 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.010 -0.001 0.016 0.078 0.096 -0.117 0.016 -0.060 0.200 0.042 PACF -0.010 -0.002 0.016 0.078 0.098 -0.116 0.011 -0.071 0.195 0.054 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.128 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.000 0.000 0.017 0.079 0.095 -0.116 0.015 -0.058 0.200 0.043 PACF 0.000 0.000 0.017 0.079 0.096 -0.117 0.012 -0.069 0.196 0.051 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.124 0.128 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1983 278 0.995 0.052 1.105 5.365 0.048 0.178 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.177 0.147 0.078 0.105 0.103 -0.080 0.032 -0.028 0.187 0.047 PACF 0.177 0.119 0.035 0.074 0.066 -0.136 0.039 -0.029 0.198 0.003 95% C.L. 0.120 0.124 0.126 0.127 0.128 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.130 0.134 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.047 0.156 0.121 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.33 MINUTES