RUN: OR001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: OR045T.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: OR045T.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 681 1 Mt.Hood, Timberline Lodg DENSITY_LATE TSME - 681 2 United States of America mountain hemlock 1600 4520-12141 1706 1983 681 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 13 681081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1899 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 681111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 6 GAPS / 1797 1797 / 1880 1880 / 1898 1898 / 1917 1917 / / 1932 1932 / 1961 1969 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 681112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1899 1899 / 1942 1942 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 681011 1730 1983 254 5.764 0.558 0.014 2.723 0.069 0.565 2 681012 1753 1983 231 5.967 0.391 -0.604 3.815 0.056 0.429 3 681021 1850 1983 134 6.681 0.521 -0.341 3.071 0.067 0.446 4 681022 1792 1983 192 6.427 0.616 -1.019 4.399 0.093 0.208 5 681031 1780 1983 204 6.581 0.459 -1.278 6.988 0.059 0.320 6 681032 1762 1983 222 6.188 0.626 -0.146 2.625 0.062 0.705 7 681051 1724 1982 259 6.599 0.497 -0.491 4.553 0.056 0.517 8 681052 1720 1983 264 6.469 0.503 0.217 3.261 0.065 0.443 9 681061 1732 1983 252 6.716 0.542 1.155 5.755 0.049 0.693 10 681062 1758 1983 226 6.662 0.376 -0.631 4.082 0.044 0.424 11 681071 1759 1966 208 7.062 0.546 -0.857 4.069 0.060 0.487 12 681072 1790 1983 194 6.837 0.653 -0.459 3.726 0.063 0.577 13 681081 1855 1983 129 6.256 0.531 -1.105 6.071 0.074 0.349 14 681082 1827 1983 157 5.848 0.661 -0.251 2.505 0.080 0.599 15 681091 1818 1983 166 7.246 0.560 -0.126 3.452 0.045 0.705 16 681092 1813 1983 171 7.269 0.694 0.313 3.106 0.054 0.742 17 681111 1726 1982 257 7.247 0.713 -1.102 4.491 0.060 0.701 18 681112 1737 1983 247 6.388 0.557 0.242 3.104 0.065 0.554 19 681121 1709 1983 275 6.937 0.648 -0.814 3.434 0.060 0.675 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 681122 1706 1983 278 7.539 0.498 -1.252 4.831 0.054 0.372 21 681131 1741 1983 243 6.810 0.488 -0.563 3.542 0.057 0.510 22 681132 1746 1983 238 7.028 0.438 -0.422 3.011 0.047 0.560 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1706 TO 1983 278 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 6.660 0.549 -0.433 3.937 0.061 0.526 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.476 0.092 0.594 1.161 0.011 0.144 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 228 6.671 0.544 -0.475 3.634 0.060 0.536 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.640 0.129 0.730 1.387 0.011 0.246 MINIMUM VALUE 128 5.764 0.376 -1.278 2.505 0.044 0.208 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 6.388 0.497 -0.857 3.104 0.054 0.429 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 252 7.028 0.626 -0.126 4.491 0.065 0.675 MAXIMUM VALUE 278 7.539 0.713 1.155 6.988 0.093 0.742 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.230 0.171 0.011 -0.467 3.511 -0.364 0.626 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.364 SERIES 681082 AND 681131 157 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.626 SERIES 681091 AND 681092 166 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.99 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 21. 78. 105. 136. 190. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.269 0.307 0.199 0.181 0.188 0.347 0.305 0.215 SDEV 0.205 0.203 0.192 0.216 0.214 0.211 0.224 0.208 SERR 0.045 0.023 0.019 0.018 0.016 0.014 0.015 0.014 EPS 0.813 0.871 0.814 0.814 0.831 0.921 0.906 0.858 NSS 11.9 15.3 17.7 19.7 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1983 278 6.779 0.381 0.285 4.049 0.032 0.710 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.422 -0.204 2.028 66 212 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.11 0.19 1.01 1.05 1.24 3.30 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 228. 62. 129. 192. 254. 278. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.707 0.620 0.598 0.574 0.521 0.551 0.465 0.434 0.439 0.418 PACF 0.707 0.240 0.202 0.127 0.022 0.174 -0.105 0.012 0.061 0.004 95% C.L. 0.120 0.170 0.200 0.224 0.244 0.260 0.276 0.287 0.296 0.306 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.583 0.422 0.118 0.162 0.164 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 681011 1 1.34861887 0.01534715 0.00000000 5.42744780 2 681012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00038878 5.92165422 3 681021 1 0.43454903 0.05948484 0.00000000 6.62845135 4 681022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00313044 6.72885847 5 681031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00033238 6.54715633 6 681032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00709284 6.97895908 7 681051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00373561 7.08462524 8 681052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00056026 6.39474344 9 681061 1 1.02070439 0.02760273 0.00000000 6.57172871 10 681062 1 0.57258165 0.04054420 0.00000000 6.60037041 11 681071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00172632 7.24208355 12 681072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00746504 7.56521273 13 681081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00397319 5.98566723 14 681082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00095616 5.77261639 15 681091 1 1.20018947 0.03212502 0.00000000 7.02521467 16 681092 1 2.32015347 0.07361416 0.00000000 7.09145403 17 681111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00629269 8.01959038 18 681112 1 0.83745319 0.02359246 0.00000000 6.24175167 19 681121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00463142 7.57630014 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 681122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00062574 7.62581635 21 681131 1 0.38511673 0.01756752 0.00000000 6.72228956 22 681132 1 0.97042489 0.00709346 0.00000000 6.56149864 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 681011 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.077 -0.091 3.746 0.068 0.294 2 681012 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.065 -0.629 3.795 0.056 0.422 3 681021 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.077 -0.264 3.009 0.066 0.431 4 681022 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.093 -0.909 4.401 0.093 0.141 5 681031 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.070 -1.278 6.921 0.059 0.317 6 681032 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.071 -0.112 3.385 0.061 0.379 7 681051 1724 1982 259 1.000 0.063 -0.532 4.158 0.055 0.320 8 681052 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.078 0.224 3.342 0.065 0.437 9 681061 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.072 0.658 4.546 0.049 0.614 10 681062 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.054 -0.669 4.232 0.044 0.367 11 681071 1759 1966 208 1.000 0.076 -0.822 3.863 0.059 0.469 12 681072 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.073 -1.069 6.012 0.063 0.315 13 681081 1855 1983 129 1.000 0.085 -1.235 6.063 0.074 0.356 14 681082 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.112 -0.358 2.453 0.079 0.591 15 681091 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.067 -0.233 3.249 0.044 0.611 16 681092 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.078 -0.327 3.026 0.054 0.602 17 681111 1726 1982 257 1.000 0.080 -0.513 3.757 0.060 0.537 18 681112 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.081 -0.105 2.792 0.066 0.473 19 681121 1709 1983 275 1.000 0.079 -0.534 3.634 0.059 0.523 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 681122 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.066 -1.169 4.516 0.054 0.364 21 681131 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.070 -0.516 3.597 0.057 0.491 22 681132 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.054 -0.390 3.243 0.047 0.400 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 218 1.000 0.075 -0.494 3.988 0.061 0.430 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.012 0.476 1.110 0.011 0.121 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 228 1.000 0.074 -0.515 3.752 0.059 0.427 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 62 0.000 0.012 0.589 1.152 0.012 0.167 MINIMUM VALUE 129 1.000 0.054 -1.278 2.453 0.044 0.141 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 1.000 0.067 -0.822 3.249 0.054 0.356 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.079 -0.233 4.401 0.066 0.523 MAXIMUM VALUE 278 1.000 0.112 0.658 6.921 0.093 0.614 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 681011 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 681012 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 681021 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 681022 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 681031 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 681032 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 681051 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 681052 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 681061 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 681062 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 681071 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 681072 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 681081 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 681082 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 681091 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 681092 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 681111 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 681112 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 681121 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 681122 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 681131 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 681132 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 681011 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.074 -0.014 4.649 0.068 0.221 2 681012 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.061 -0.682 4.001 0.056 0.346 3 681021 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.073 -0.360 3.313 0.066 0.367 4 681022 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.091 -0.889 4.517 0.092 0.104 5 681031 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.067 -1.360 7.528 0.059 0.248 6 681032 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.068 -0.151 3.495 0.061 0.333 7 681051 1724 1982 259 1.000 0.060 -0.475 4.037 0.055 0.257 8 681052 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.076 0.177 3.305 0.065 0.416 9 681061 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.071 0.687 4.561 0.049 0.604 10 681062 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.051 -0.671 4.446 0.044 0.300 11 681071 1759 1966 208 1.000 0.072 -0.926 4.455 0.059 0.406 12 681072 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.069 -1.165 6.805 0.063 0.223 13 681081 1855 1983 129 1.000 0.080 -1.264 6.011 0.074 0.258 14 681082 1827 1983 157 0.999 0.088 -0.006 2.850 0.079 0.298 15 681091 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.060 -0.226 3.444 0.044 0.511 16 681092 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.075 -0.394 3.097 0.054 0.572 17 681111 1726 1982 257 1.000 0.073 -0.307 3.370 0.060 0.454 18 681112 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.078 -0.306 2.866 0.066 0.431 19 681121 1709 1983 275 1.000 0.075 -0.586 3.619 0.059 0.480 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 681122 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.064 -1.036 4.557 0.054 0.314 21 681131 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.066 -0.518 3.973 0.057 0.430 22 681132 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.052 -0.422 3.226 0.047 0.361 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 218 1.000 0.070 -0.495 4.187 0.061 0.361 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.010 0.493 1.223 0.011 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 228 1.000 0.072 -0.449 3.987 0.059 0.354 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 62 0.000 0.012 0.663 1.244 0.012 0.173 MINIMUM VALUE 129 0.999 0.051 -1.360 2.850 0.044 0.104 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 1.000 0.064 -0.889 3.313 0.054 0.258 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.075 -0.226 4.557 0.066 0.431 MAXIMUM VALUE 278 1.000 0.091 0.687 7.528 0.092 0.604 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.222 0.136 0.009 -0.254 2.758 -0.116 0.540 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.116 SERIES 681082 AND 681111 156 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.540 SERIES 681091 AND 681092 166 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.99 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 21. 78. 105. 136. 190. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.256 0.280 0.210 0.156 0.213 0.341 0.319 0.231 SDEV 0.170 0.195 0.184 0.201 0.198 0.212 0.222 0.203 SERR 0.037 0.022 0.018 0.017 0.014 0.014 0.015 0.013 EPS 0.803 0.856 0.825 0.785 0.852 0.919 0.911 0.868 NSS 11.9 15.3 17.7 19.7 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1983 278 1.001 0.036 -1.063 5.702 0.032 0.244 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.223 -0.128 0.185 90 188 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.18 0.32 1.00 1.07 1.39 15.94 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.243 0.075 0.100 0.116 0.005 0.150 -0.033 -0.071 0.004 -0.035 PACF 0.243 0.016 0.083 0.077 -0.048 0.160 -0.130 -0.049 0.026 -0.070 95% C.L. 0.120 0.127 0.127 0.129 0.130 0.130 0.133 0.133 0.133 0.133 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.059 0.243 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.244 0.083 0.076 0.094 0.006 0.137 -0.052 -0.124 -0.030 -0.084 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.244 2 0.238 0.025 3 0.237 0.012 0.053 4 0.233 0.011 0.038 0.066 5 0.236 0.013 0.038 0.075 -0.038 6 0.242 0.002 0.033 0.073 -0.073 0.145 7 0.261 -0.008 0.042 0.077 -0.072 0.177 -0.135 8 0.247 0.011 0.035 0.085 -0.068 0.177 -0.108 -0.104 9 0.250 0.013 0.030 0.087 -0.070 0.176 -0.109 -0.111 0.026 10 0.252 0.002 0.019 0.105 -0.077 0.184 -0.105 -0.109 0.052 -0.101 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1331.21 1316.09 1317.92 1319.13 1319.92 1321.51 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1317.63 1314.48 1313.45 1315.26 1314.38 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.244 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 5.97 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.35 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.244 0.060 0.015 0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 681011 1 0.070 0.222 2 681012 1 0.162 0.347 3 681021 1 0.167 0.370 4 681022 1 0.016 0.104 5 681031 1 0.066 0.249 6 681032 1 0.113 0.333 7 681051 1 0.070 0.261 8 681052 1 0.174 0.417 9 681061 1 0.368 0.604 10 681062 1 0.096 0.300 11 681071 1 0.182 0.424 12 681072 1 0.069 0.224 13 681081 1 0.068 0.259 14 681082 1 0.098 0.298 15 681091 1 0.288 0.512 16 681092 1 0.353 0.576 17 681111 1 0.223 0.456 18 681112 1 0.194 0.431 19 681121 1 0.232 0.482 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 681122 1 0.115 0.317 21 681131 1 0.188 0.430 22 681132 1 0.153 0.363 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.157 0.363 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.093 0.123 MEDIAN 1 0.157 0.355 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.123 0.170 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.016 0.104 LOWER HINGE 1 0.070 0.261 UPPER HINGE 1 0.194 0.431 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.368 0.604 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 681011 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.072 0.068 5.454 0.076 -0.034 2 681012 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.058 -0.638 3.895 0.067 -0.074 3 681021 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.068 -0.605 3.484 0.080 -0.065 4 681022 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.090 -0.956 4.752 0.098 -0.007 5 681031 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.065 -1.501 8.196 0.066 -0.017 6 681032 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.064 -0.184 3.548 0.071 -0.017 7 681051 1724 1982 259 1.000 0.058 -0.453 4.075 0.062 0.009 8 681052 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.069 0.011 3.311 0.077 0.002 9 681061 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.057 0.377 3.795 0.063 -0.044 10 681062 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.049 -0.445 4.801 0.052 -0.023 11 681071 1759 1966 208 1.000 0.065 -0.793 4.487 0.070 0.035 12 681072 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.067 -1.230 7.933 0.071 -0.031 13 681081 1855 1983 129 1.000 0.077 -1.366 7.118 0.084 0.007 14 681082 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.084 0.008 3.045 0.088 0.029 15 681091 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.051 -0.102 3.763 0.057 -0.094 16 681092 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.061 -0.326 3.827 0.070 -0.105 17 681111 1726 1982 257 1.000 0.065 -0.110 3.635 0.075 -0.064 18 681112 1737 1983 247 1.000 0.071 -0.457 3.244 0.079 -0.041 19 681121 1709 1983 275 1.000 0.066 -0.352 3.436 0.073 -0.004 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 681122 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.060 -1.040 5.045 0.062 -0.036 21 681131 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.060 -0.521 3.994 0.067 -0.025 22 681132 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.049 -0.392 3.158 0.057 -0.057 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 218 1.000 0.065 -0.500 4.454 0.071 -0.030 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.010 0.488 1.490 0.011 0.037 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 228 1.000 0.065 -0.449 3.861 0.071 -0.028 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 62 0.000 0.011 0.683 1.316 0.013 0.054 MINIMUM VALUE 129 1.000 0.049 -1.501 3.045 0.052 -0.105 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 1.000 0.058 -0.793 3.484 0.063 -0.057 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.069 -0.110 4.801 0.077 -0.004 MAXIMUM VALUE 278 1.000 0.090 0.377 8.196 0.098 0.035 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.248 0.127 0.008 -0.205 2.954 -0.071 0.568 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.071 SERIES 681082 AND 681111 156 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.568 SERIES 681091 AND 681092 166 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.99 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 21. 78. 105. 136. 190. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.258 0.298 0.222 0.155 0.226 0.331 0.355 0.290 SDEV 0.164 0.213 0.197 0.179 0.182 0.192 0.198 0.174 SERR 0.036 0.024 0.019 0.015 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.805 0.867 0.835 0.784 0.861 0.916 0.924 0.900 NSS 11.9 15.3 17.7 19.7 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1983 278 1.001 0.034 -0.940 5.915 0.038 -0.110 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.222 -0.117 0.168 93 185 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.42 1.00 1.07 1.49 6.74 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.110 -0.055 0.056 0.078 -0.090 0.160 -0.066 -0.088 0.048 -0.009 PACF -0.110 -0.068 0.043 0.088 -0.066 0.153 -0.053 -0.086 0.022 -0.039 95% C.L. 0.120 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.124 0.127 0.127 0.128 0.128 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.017 -0.110 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.007 -0.062 0.060 0.077 -0.066 0.146 -0.060 -0.092 0.039 -0.011 PACF -0.007 -0.062 0.059 0.074 -0.058 0.153 -0.079 -0.075 0.026 -0.045 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.125 0.125 0.126 0.126 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.004 -0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1983 278 1.001 0.035 -1.022 5.371 0.032 0.228 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.227 0.014 0.076 0.083 -0.013 0.117 -0.047 -0.092 0.007 -0.026 PACF 0.227 -0.040 0.086 0.049 -0.043 0.137 -0.127 -0.048 0.031 -0.058 95% C.L. 0.120 0.126 0.126 0.127 0.127 0.127 0.129 0.129 0.130 0.130 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.053 0.227 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.34 MINUTES