RUN: OR001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: OR045W.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: OR045W.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 681 1 Mt.Hood, Timberline Lodg WIDTH_RING TSME - 681 2 United States of America mountain hemlock 1600 4520-12141 1706 1983 681 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 13 681081 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1899 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 17 681111 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 14 IN 6 GAPS / 1797 1797 / 1880 1880 / 1898 1898 / 1917 1917 / / 1932 1932 / 1961 1969 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 681112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1899 1899 / 1942 1942 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 681011 1730 1983 254 1.009 0.626 1.181 5.003 0.287 0.826 2 681012 1753 1983 231 0.987 0.537 1.831 8.785 0.278 0.710 3 681021 1850 1983 134 0.633 0.328 1.342 5.333 0.331 0.722 4 681022 1792 1983 192 0.908 0.694 1.183 3.552 0.319 0.859 5 681031 1780 1983 204 1.490 0.705 0.598 2.941 0.309 0.646 6 681032 1762 1983 222 1.356 0.735 0.660 2.810 0.286 0.761 7 681051 1724 1982 259 1.248 0.585 0.313 2.431 0.261 0.769 8 681052 1720 1983 264 1.121 0.674 0.896 3.518 0.277 0.837 9 681061 1732 1983 252 1.013 0.356 1.473 9.033 0.204 0.688 10 681062 1758 1983 226 0.861 0.230 0.162 3.146 0.192 0.558 11 681071 1759 1966 208 1.172 0.410 0.569 2.859 0.282 0.467 12 681072 1790 1983 194 1.458 0.707 1.097 3.951 0.263 0.733 13 681081 1855 1983 129 0.851 0.435 0.858 3.130 0.286 0.704 14 681082 1827 1983 157 0.738 0.497 0.771 2.798 0.338 0.850 15 681091 1818 1983 166 1.155 0.393 0.919 4.779 0.249 0.489 16 681092 1813 1983 171 1.008 0.440 1.642 6.767 0.275 0.641 17 681111 1726 1982 257 0.709 0.451 1.168 4.043 0.375 0.750 18 681112 1737 1983 247 0.775 0.496 1.659 6.708 0.368 0.757 19 681121 1709 1983 275 1.064 0.484 0.565 3.115 0.297 0.712 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 681122 1706 1983 278 1.118 0.629 0.705 2.887 0.321 0.800 21 681131 1741 1983 243 1.369 0.684 0.432 2.632 0.300 0.662 22 681132 1746 1983 238 1.357 0.514 0.409 2.935 0.270 0.594 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 22 FROM 1706 TO 1983 278 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 217 1.064 0.528 0.929 4.234 0.289 0.706 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.248 0.141 0.465 1.953 0.044 0.108 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 228 1.038 0.506 0.877 3.332 0.286 0.717 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 60 0.387 0.240 0.614 2.117 0.050 0.123 MINIMUM VALUE 128 0.633 0.230 0.162 2.431 0.192 0.467 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 0.861 0.435 0.569 2.887 0.270 0.646 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 252 1.248 0.674 1.183 5.003 0.319 0.769 MAXIMUM VALUE 278 1.490 0.735 1.831 9.033 0.375 0.859 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.476 0.213 0.014 -0.560 2.983 -0.254 0.861 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.254 SERIES 681082 AND 681091 157 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.861 SERIES 681011 AND 681081 129 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.99 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 21. 78. 105. 136. 190. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.497 0.543 0.289 0.327 0.364 0.476 0.517 0.395 SDEV 0.191 0.190 0.219 0.180 0.225 0.196 0.205 0.246 SERR 0.042 0.022 0.021 0.015 0.016 0.013 0.013 0.016 EPS 0.922 0.948 0.878 0.906 0.924 0.952 0.959 0.935 NSS 11.9 15.3 17.7 19.7 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1983 278 1.157 0.490 0.745 3.333 0.205 0.781 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.324 0.109 0.291 102 176 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.38 0.84 1.00 1.08 1.93 129.25 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 228. 62. 129. 192. 254. 278. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.778 0.733 0.680 0.692 0.662 0.668 0.640 0.594 0.569 0.528 PACF 0.778 0.324 0.121 0.217 0.074 0.126 0.036 -0.071 -0.004 -0.073 95% C.L. 0.120 0.178 0.217 0.246 0.273 0.295 0.316 0.334 0.349 0.362 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.703 0.446 0.152 -0.003 0.148 0.020 0.165 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 681011 1 2.11084938 0.00694464 0.00000000 0.02137988 2 681012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00380239 1.42778730 3 681021 1 0.76016325 0.04331272 0.00000000 0.50529063 4 681022 1 2.41033673 0.01300124 0.00000000 0.02737390 5 681031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00723160 2.23119044 6 681032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00788548 2.23558283 7 681051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00629820 2.06687355 8 681052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00711537 2.06350613 9 681061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00073198 1.10537314 10 681062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00032348 0.89768851 11 681071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00262015 1.44630575 12 681072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00310222 1.76081669 13 681081 1 1.41514063 0.01760787 0.00000000 0.29294273 14 681082 1 1.55502415 0.02341628 0.00000000 0.33089569 15 681091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00194476 0.99279302 16 681092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00112869 1.10548818 17 681111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00423945 1.23692977 18 681112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00422395 1.29441428 19 681121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00358566 1.55871129 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 681122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00558436 1.89689636 21 681131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00444379 1.91131961 22 681132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00300659 1.71668231 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 681011 1730 1983 254 0.994 0.379 0.638 3.257 0.285 0.520 2 681012 1753 1983 231 0.996 0.514 3.454 21.220 0.277 0.637 3 681021 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.432 0.749 3.027 0.330 0.582 4 681022 1792 1983 192 1.004 0.348 0.779 4.499 0.318 0.343 5 681031 1780 1983 204 0.993 0.381 0.867 4.034 0.308 0.471 6 681032 1762 1983 222 0.994 0.402 0.970 4.846 0.284 0.554 7 681051 1724 1982 259 0.993 0.284 0.314 3.518 0.260 0.362 8 681052 1720 1983 264 1.018 0.348 0.403 3.381 0.276 0.480 9 681061 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.340 1.199 7.508 0.203 0.674 10 681062 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.267 0.174 3.178 0.191 0.549 11 681071 1759 1966 208 0.999 0.314 0.380 3.012 0.280 0.366 12 681072 1790 1983 194 0.997 0.453 0.933 3.671 0.262 0.705 13 681081 1855 1983 129 1.000 0.312 0.362 2.792 0.295 0.284 14 681082 1827 1983 157 1.006 0.541 1.167 5.093 0.335 0.753 15 681091 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.331 0.853 4.198 0.247 0.461 16 681092 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.424 1.522 6.409 0.273 0.624 17 681111 1726 1982 257 1.023 0.437 0.588 3.138 0.376 0.496 18 681112 1737 1983 247 1.010 0.469 1.010 5.274 0.378 0.540 19 681121 1709 1983 275 0.998 0.360 0.047 2.707 0.296 0.512 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 681122 1706 1983 278 1.012 0.434 0.951 4.762 0.320 0.570 21 681131 1741 1983 243 0.988 0.449 0.670 3.005 0.299 0.607 22 681132 1746 1983 238 0.998 0.342 0.334 2.835 0.269 0.497 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 218 1.001 0.389 0.835 4.789 0.289 0.527 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.008 0.072 0.689 3.876 0.045 0.119 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 228 1.000 0.380 0.764 3.595 0.285 0.530 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 62 0.007 0.097 0.590 1.820 0.049 0.136 MINIMUM VALUE 129 0.988 0.267 0.047 2.707 0.191 0.284 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 0.996 0.340 0.380 3.027 0.269 0.471 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.004 0.437 0.970 4.846 0.318 0.607 MAXIMUM VALUE 278 1.023 0.541 3.454 21.220 0.378 0.753 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 681011 -67 170 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 681012 -67 154 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 681021 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 681022 -67 128 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 681031 -67 136 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 681032 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 681051 -67 173 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 681052 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 681061 -67 168 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 681062 -67 151 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 681071 -67 139 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 681072 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 681081 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 681082 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 681091 -67 111 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 681092 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 681111 -67 172 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 681112 -67 165 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 681121 -67 184 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 681122 -67 186 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 681131 -67 162 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 681132 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 681011 1730 1983 254 0.995 0.361 0.806 4.367 0.285 0.468 2 681012 1753 1983 231 0.992 0.434 2.639 15.422 0.277 0.576 3 681021 1850 1983 134 0.995 0.405 0.562 2.773 0.329 0.530 4 681022 1792 1983 192 0.997 0.318 0.371 3.212 0.318 0.242 5 681031 1780 1983 204 0.999 0.367 0.707 3.261 0.308 0.437 6 681032 1762 1983 222 0.992 0.355 0.748 4.016 0.284 0.466 7 681051 1724 1982 259 0.999 0.279 0.376 3.797 0.259 0.334 8 681052 1720 1983 264 0.998 0.327 0.303 3.415 0.276 0.449 9 681061 1732 1983 252 0.996 0.322 1.821 12.281 0.203 0.637 10 681062 1758 1983 226 0.998 0.248 0.104 3.262 0.191 0.497 11 681071 1759 1966 208 0.999 0.307 0.380 2.889 0.280 0.326 12 681072 1790 1983 194 0.995 0.356 0.772 3.610 0.261 0.586 13 681081 1855 1983 129 0.999 0.308 0.398 3.075 0.295 0.268 14 681082 1827 1983 157 0.980 0.370 0.551 3.797 0.334 0.379 15 681091 1818 1983 166 0.997 0.314 0.783 4.018 0.247 0.389 16 681092 1813 1983 171 0.996 0.371 1.451 6.774 0.273 0.530 17 681111 1726 1982 257 0.998 0.408 0.426 2.766 0.376 0.445 18 681112 1737 1983 247 0.996 0.437 0.723 4.261 0.378 0.465 19 681121 1709 1983 275 0.997 0.352 0.079 2.920 0.296 0.488 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 681122 1706 1983 278 0.995 0.387 0.349 3.040 0.320 0.507 21 681131 1741 1983 243 0.996 0.350 0.633 3.340 0.299 0.394 22 681132 1746 1983 238 0.997 0.319 0.532 3.711 0.269 0.439 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 218 0.996 0.350 0.705 4.546 0.289 0.448 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.004 0.047 0.585 3.165 0.045 0.099 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 228 0.997 0.353 0.556 3.512 0.285 0.457 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 62 0.003 0.054 0.396 0.943 0.049 0.118 MINIMUM VALUE 129 0.980 0.248 0.079 2.766 0.191 0.242 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 0.995 0.318 0.376 3.075 0.269 0.389 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 0.998 0.371 0.772 4.018 0.318 0.507 MAXIMUM VALUE 278 0.999 0.437 2.639 15.422 0.378 0.637 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.376 0.147 0.010 -0.571 4.265 -0.190 0.817 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.190 SERIES 681082 AND 681091 157 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.817 SERIES 681131 AND 681132 238 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.99 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 21. 78. 105. 136. 190. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.551 0.506 0.312 0.337 0.376 0.459 0.455 0.365 SDEV 0.160 0.181 0.192 0.179 0.201 0.210 0.220 0.190 SERR 0.035 0.021 0.019 0.015 0.015 0.014 0.014 0.013 EPS 0.936 0.940 0.889 0.909 0.928 0.949 0.948 0.927 NSS 11.9 15.3 17.7 19.7 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1983 278 0.990 0.237 -0.051 2.969 0.214 0.387 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.403 0.131 0.115 93 185 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.69 1.02 1.13 1.82 27.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.385 0.206 0.133 0.102 0.041 0.079 0.030 -0.040 0.035 0.006 PACF 0.385 0.067 0.039 0.034 -0.024 0.066 -0.028 -0.070 0.078 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.120 0.137 0.141 0.143 0.144 0.144 0.145 0.145 0.145 0.145 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.153 0.387 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.311 0.113 0.071 0.006 -0.057 -0.021 -0.058 -0.120 0.029 0.030 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.311 2 0.306 0.018 3 0.305 0.008 0.034 4 0.306 0.008 0.044 -0.030 5 0.304 0.011 0.044 -0.011 -0.062 6 0.305 0.011 0.043 -0.011 -0.066 0.015 7 0.306 0.007 0.043 -0.009 -0.066 0.031 -0.053 8 0.301 0.010 0.037 -0.010 -0.062 0.032 -0.025 -0.091 9 0.311 0.013 0.033 -0.003 -0.061 0.028 -0.026 -0.124 0.108 10 0.311 0.013 0.033 -0.003 -0.060 0.028 -0.026 -0.124 0.107 0.003 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2353.38 2327.04 2328.95 2330.62 2332.37 2333.31 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2335.25 2336.47 2336.13 2334.88 2336.88 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.311 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 9.69 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 110.73 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.311 0.097 0.030 0.009 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 681011 1 0.222 0.470 2 681012 1 0.336 0.579 3 681021 1 0.287 0.531 4 681022 1 0.070 0.242 5 681031 1 0.198 0.439 6 681032 1 0.222 0.466 7 681051 1 0.117 0.335 8 681052 1 0.203 0.450 9 681061 1 0.412 0.641 10 681062 1 0.263 0.501 11 681071 1 0.115 0.329 12 681072 1 0.346 0.588 13 681081 1 0.081 0.270 14 681082 1 0.172 0.379 15 681091 1 0.162 0.394 16 681092 1 0.292 0.533 17 681111 1 0.198 0.445 18 681112 1 0.238 0.467 19 681121 1 0.244 0.490 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 681122 1 0.273 0.509 21 681131 1 0.175 0.403 22 681132 1 0.208 0.440 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.220 0.450 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.086 0.100 MEDIAN 1 0.215 0.458 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.101 0.115 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.070 0.242 LOWER HINGE 1 0.172 0.394 UPPER HINGE 1 0.273 0.509 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.412 0.641 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 681011 1730 1983 254 1.000 0.318 0.747 5.340 0.345 -0.018 2 681012 1753 1983 231 1.000 0.353 2.318 16.519 0.349 0.015 3 681021 1850 1983 134 1.000 0.343 0.206 3.252 0.412 -0.043 4 681022 1792 1983 192 1.000 0.308 0.207 3.088 0.362 -0.027 5 681031 1780 1983 204 1.000 0.329 0.414 3.418 0.364 0.031 6 681032 1762 1983 222 1.000 0.314 0.476 3.999 0.348 -0.037 7 681051 1724 1982 259 1.000 0.263 0.282 4.060 0.295 -0.024 8 681052 1720 1983 264 1.000 0.292 0.238 3.831 0.320 -0.014 9 681061 1732 1983 252 1.000 0.247 0.949 7.175 0.266 -0.034 10 681062 1758 1983 226 1.000 0.214 0.116 3.754 0.240 -0.064 11 681071 1759 1966 208 1.000 0.290 0.376 2.991 0.316 0.027 12 681072 1790 1983 194 1.000 0.288 0.350 3.855 0.319 -0.003 13 681081 1855 1983 129 1.000 0.296 0.258 2.962 0.339 -0.023 14 681082 1827 1983 157 1.000 0.343 0.492 3.514 0.386 -0.069 15 681091 1818 1983 166 1.000 0.288 0.526 4.745 0.304 0.030 16 681092 1813 1983 171 1.000 0.313 0.849 6.296 0.350 0.053 17 681111 1726 1982 257 1.000 0.365 0.373 3.068 0.427 -0.008 18 681112 1737 1983 247 1.001 0.384 0.250 3.697 0.466 -0.069 19 681121 1709 1983 275 1.000 0.306 0.094 3.373 0.350 -0.034 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 681122 1706 1983 278 1.000 0.333 0.195 3.747 0.395 -0.070 21 681131 1741 1983 243 1.000 0.319 0.492 3.218 0.357 -0.050 22 681132 1746 1983 238 1.000 0.286 0.390 4.247 0.330 -0.058 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 218 1.000 0.309 0.482 4.552 0.347 -0.022 STANDARD DEVIATION 44 0.000 0.039 0.467 2.878 0.051 0.036 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 228 1.000 0.311 0.374 3.750 0.348 -0.026 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 62 0.000 0.045 0.254 0.995 0.045 0.047 MINIMUM VALUE 129 1.000 0.214 0.094 2.962 0.240 -0.070 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 192 1.000 0.288 0.238 3.252 0.319 -0.050 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 254 1.000 0.333 0.492 4.247 0.364 -0.003 MAXIMUM VALUE 278 1.001 0.384 2.318 16.519 0.466 0.053 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 231 0.451 0.144 0.009 -1.134 5.027 -0.087 0.826 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.087 SERIES 681071 AND 681082 140 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.826 SERIES 681131 AND 681132 238 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 68.99 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1760. 1785. 1810. 1835. 1860. 1885. 1910. 1935. CORR 21. 78. 105. 136. 190. 231. 231. 231. RBAR 0.509 0.402 0.359 0.434 0.469 0.573 0.583 0.420 SDEV 0.151 0.214 0.170 0.134 0.187 0.193 0.196 0.165 SERR 0.033 0.024 0.017 0.011 0.014 0.013 0.013 0.011 EPS 0.925 0.911 0.908 0.938 0.949 0.967 0.969 0.941 NSS 11.9 15.3 17.7 19.7 21.3 22.0 22.0 22.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1983 278 0.993 0.216 -0.199 3.659 0.259 -0.104 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.256 0.088 0.110 128 150 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.82 1.00 1.10 1.92 14.33 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.104 0.020 0.029 0.054 -0.039 0.075 0.016 -0.075 0.069 0.023 PACF -0.104 0.009 0.033 0.061 -0.029 0.066 0.028 -0.075 0.053 0.028 95% C.L. 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 0.123 0.123 0.123 0.124 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.011 -0.104 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.012 0.038 0.054 -0.026 0.074 0.017 -0.068 0.065 0.022 PACF 0.001 0.012 0.038 0.054 -0.027 0.072 0.013 -0.071 0.063 0.013 95% C.L. 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.120 0.121 0.121 0.121 0.122 0.122 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.000 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1706 1983 278 0.994 0.227 -0.130 2.994 0.215 0.320 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.319 0.125 0.090 0.078 0.023 0.076 0.026 -0.035 0.048 0.014 PACF 0.319 0.026 0.048 0.037 -0.021 0.074 -0.025 -0.052 0.077 -0.028 95% C.L. 0.120 0.132 0.133 0.134 0.135 0.135 0.136 0.136 0.136 0.136 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.103 0.320 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.30 MINUTES