RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS024E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS024E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 864 1 Kotuykan-River WIDTH_EARLY LAGM - 864 2 Russia Dahurian larch 130 7036-10415 1563 1990 - 864 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 1 864011 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 3 GAPS / 1712 1713 / 1795 1795 / 1843 1844 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 2 864012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 18 IN 9 GAPS / 1626 1627 / 1676 1682 / 1688 1688 / 1704 1704 / / 1784 1784 / 1790 1790 / 1825 1825 / 1899 1900 / / 1980 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 864022 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 2 GAPS / 1911 1911 / 1974 1975 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 4 864031 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1782 1783 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 864051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1812 1812 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 8 864052 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1899 1900 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 10 864062 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 1 GAPS / 1696 1697 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 864071 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 104 IN 2 GAPS / 1701 1803 / 1838 1838 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 864072 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1971 1971 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 864091 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1973 1973 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 864092 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 2 IN 2 GAPS / 1855 1855 / 1898 1898 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 864112 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 3 IN 1 GAPS / 1758 1760 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 864131 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 7 IN 4 GAPS / 1738 1738 / 1779 1781 / 1899 1900 / 1981 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 23 864132 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 8 IN 6 GAPS / 1772 1772 / 1814 1814 / 1900 1900 / 1911 1911 / / 1973 1974 / 1980 1981 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 25 864142 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1879 1879 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 27 864152 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 47 IN 2 GAPS / 1809 1854 / 1899 1899 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 864161 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 4 GAPS / 1601 1601 / 1618 1619 / 1699 1699 / 1772 1772 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 29 864162 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 31 IN 2 GAPS / 1820 1849 / 2031 2031 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 30 864172 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 3 GAPS / 1800 1800 / 1877 1877 / 2008 2009 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 31 864182 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 21 IN 4 GAPS / 1781 1781 / 1812 1829 / 1870 1870 / 1905 1905 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 32 864191 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 97 IN 1 GAPS / 1772 1868 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 33 864192 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 44 IN 3 GAPS / 1762 1762 / 1799 1839 / 1973 1974 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 864011 1650 1990 341 0.202 0.116 0.650 3.081 0.568 0.299 2 864012 1608 1990 383 0.159 0.091 0.931 3.843 0.585 0.185 3 864022 1902 1990 89 0.181 0.089 0.741 3.237 0.514 0.252 4 864031 1782 1990 209 0.265 0.129 1.322 7.012 0.425 0.392 5 864032 1791 1990 200 0.302 0.180 1.284 4.791 0.411 0.626 6 864041 1727 1990 264 0.361 0.214 1.087 4.528 0.619 0.248 7 864051 1799 1906 108 0.247 0.156 1.012 3.522 0.489 0.528 8 864052 1744 1956 213 0.147 0.075 0.746 3.162 0.385 0.615 9 864061 1632 1770 139 0.205 0.137 1.362 4.581 0.560 0.545 10 864062 1620 1741 122 0.261 0.151 0.745 3.361 0.591 0.387 11 864071 1599 1967 369 0.166 0.093 1.053 4.302 0.461 0.541 12 864072 1865 1990 126 0.102 0.049 0.810 3.542 0.532 0.192 13 864081 1809 1990 182 0.270 0.141 1.413 6.869 0.428 0.565 14 864082 1796 1990 195 0.286 0.139 0.925 4.906 0.448 0.438 15 864091 1814 1986 173 0.269 0.141 0.587 3.584 0.500 0.429 16 864092 1835 1990 156 0.241 0.115 0.588 3.509 0.459 0.359 17 864101 1888 2107 220 0.424 0.227 0.688 3.143 0.373 0.656 18 864111 1945 1990 46 0.190 0.123 1.440 4.858 0.610 0.151 19 864112 1690 1990 301 0.214 0.155 1.173 3.843 0.456 0.722 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 864121 1674 1990 317 0.187 0.099 0.658 3.059 0.429 0.519 21 864122 1743 1848 106 0.149 0.068 0.232 2.468 0.434 0.510 22 864131 1671 1990 320 0.128 0.061 0.735 3.490 0.476 0.307 23 864132 1620 1990 371 0.139 0.071 0.641 3.334 0.462 0.437 24 864141 1815 1990 176 0.522 0.261 0.424 2.506 0.417 0.569 25 864142 1807 1990 184 0.458 0.250 0.502 2.747 0.489 0.530 26 864151 1862 1990 129 0.304 0.161 0.996 4.790 0.570 0.294 27 864152 1701 1956 256 0.354 0.171 0.217 2.481 0.552 0.223 28 864161 1563 1794 232 0.287 0.166 0.520 2.751 0.597 0.269 29 864162 1625 2220 596 0.279 0.171 1.042 4.347 0.552 0.428 30 864172 1784 2330 547 0.311 0.176 0.794 3.798 0.500 0.516 31 864182 1600 1990 391 0.265 0.130 0.645 3.525 0.474 0.425 32 864191 1709 1990 282 0.353 0.181 0.755 3.635 0.507 0.338 33 864192 1711 1990 280 0.267 0.152 0.648 3.043 0.549 0.407 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 33 FROM 1563 TO 2330 768 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 231 0.257 0.141 0.829 3.807 0.498 0.421 STANDARD DEVIATION 118 0.096 0.052 0.318 1.073 0.068 0.149 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 207 0.265 0.141 0.746 3.525 0.489 0.428 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 144 0.116 0.072 0.397 1.205 0.105 0.231 MINIMUM VALUE 45 0.102 0.049 0.217 2.468 0.373 0.151 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 154 0.187 0.099 0.645 3.143 0.448 0.299 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 298 0.302 0.171 1.042 4.347 0.552 0.530 MAXIMUM VALUE 565 0.522 0.261 1.440 7.012 0.619 0.722 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 469 0.523 0.145 0.007 -0.535 3.389 0.052 0.905 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.052 SERIES 864051 AND 864112 108 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.905 SERIES 864081 AND 864082 182 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 88.83 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 18.73 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. CORR 15. 28. 36. 55. 91. 120. 105. 153. 253. 276. RBAR 0.541 0.618 0.499 0.571 0.620 0.509 0.506 0.498 0.638 0.513 SDEV 0.212 0.158 0.206 0.196 0.160 0.206 0.165 0.164 0.143 0.196 SERR 0.055 0.030 0.034 0.026 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.013 0.009 0.012 EPS 0.905 0.941 0.924 0.951 0.964 0.947 0.951 0.958 0.977 0.964 NSS 8.1 9.9 12.3 14.6 16.4 17.1 19.2 22.8 24.5 25.5 YEAR 1895. 1920. 1945. 1970. 1995. 2020. 2045. 2070. 2095. 2120. CORR 300. 325. 276. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. RBAR 0.559 0.644 0.646 0.405 0.186 -0.086 -0.187 -0.149 0.175 0.124 SDEV 0.162 0.117 0.132 0.154 0.188 0.105 0.336 0.269 0.269 0.269 SERR 0.009 0.006 0.008 0.089 0.108 0.060 0.194 0.155 0.000 0.000 EPS 0.971 0.980 0.980 0.942 0.735 -0.312 -0.897 -0.637 0.369 0.243 NSS 26.7 27.1 26.9 24.1 12.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.3 YEAR 2145. 2170. 2195. CORR 1. 1. 1. RBAR 0.156 0.084 -0.204 SDEV 0.269 0.269 0.269 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 EPS 0.270 0.154 -0.514 NSS 2.0 2.0 2.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1563 2330 768 0.259 0.118 0.586 3.607 0.445 0.418 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.389 0.288 0.026 168 600 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.43 1.07 1.00 1.10 2.17 253.78 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.28 0.00 0.72 1.00 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 213. 161. 46. 156. 317. 596. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.417 0.392 0.346 0.385 0.352 0.323 0.294 0.218 0.253 0.237 PACF 0.417 0.264 0.150 0.192 0.111 0.062 0.036 -0.060 0.040 0.027 95% C.L. 0.072 0.084 0.093 0.099 0.107 0.113 0.117 0.121 0.123 0.126 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 6 0.291 0.208 0.156 0.074 0.156 0.099 0.064 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 864011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013036 0.17918915 2 864012 1 0.04937805 0.00698778 0.00000000 0.13980977 3 864022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00046528 0.15778755 4 864031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00039969 0.22269632 5 864032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00016815 0.31899950 6 864041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00028773 0.32308820 7 864051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00098701 0.29985133 8 864052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006193 0.13950871 9 864061 1 0.32286355 0.01591550 0.00000000 0.07610412 10 864062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00233093 0.40125561 11 864071 1 0.16087595 0.03082881 0.00000000 0.14314675 12 864072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00000447 0.10158011 13 864081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00035821 0.30288568 14 864082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00034985 0.32013163 15 864091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00047445 0.30893061 16 864092 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00031730 0.26526189 17 864101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00003207 0.42013824 18 864111 1 0.26002470 0.07523531 0.00000000 0.12014724 19 864112 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00073137 0.10302350 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 864121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021235 0.15282914 21 864122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00126226 0.21658760 22 864131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00016612 0.15358283 23 864132 1 0.14321356 0.00492246 0.00000000 0.07178284 24 864141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00165622 0.66873443 25 864142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00006578 0.45641643 26 864151 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00048228 0.27314803 27 864152 1 0.02431588 0.00841603 0.00000000 0.32272995 28 864161 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00046528 0.22839610 29 864162 1 0.10750460 0.01360129 0.00000000 0.25909010 30 864172 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00016188 0.35652876 31 864182 1 0.13893171 0.00593875 0.00000000 0.20540124 32 864191 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00049394 0.26500309 33 864192 1 0.24763685 0.02417052 0.00000000 0.20627145 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 864011 1650 1990 341 1.000 0.567 0.615 3.006 0.564 0.291 2 864012 1608 1990 383 1.000 0.579 0.833 3.461 0.602 0.196 3 864022 1902 1990 89 0.999 0.493 0.790 3.323 0.510 0.259 4 864031 1782 1990 209 1.000 0.467 1.051 5.487 0.421 0.349 5 864032 1791 1990 200 1.000 0.604 1.418 5.310 0.409 0.636 6 864041 1727 1990 264 1.000 0.585 1.033 4.461 0.617 0.232 7 864051 1799 1906 108 0.996 0.609 1.022 3.676 0.481 0.519 8 864052 1744 1956 213 1.000 0.515 0.666 2.988 0.387 0.610 9 864061 1632 1770 139 1.000 0.527 0.866 3.759 0.555 0.270 10 864062 1620 1741 122 1.005 0.513 0.647 3.476 0.597 0.035 11 864071 1599 1967 369 0.999 0.495 0.903 4.844 0.461 0.396 12 864072 1865 1990 126 1.000 0.480 0.821 3.548 0.530 0.184 13 864081 1809 1990 182 0.999 0.513 1.235 5.863 0.425 0.550 14 864082 1796 1990 195 0.999 0.476 0.832 4.527 0.445 0.427 15 864091 1814 1986 173 0.998 0.513 0.508 3.443 0.500 0.403 16 864092 1835 1990 156 1.000 0.474 0.605 3.432 0.455 0.329 17 864101 1888 2107 220 1.000 0.536 0.691 3.158 0.372 0.653 18 864111 1945 1990 46 1.001 0.478 -0.145 1.992 0.595 -0.183 19 864112 1690 1990 301 1.007 0.679 1.614 6.707 0.454 0.683 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 864121 1674 1990 317 0.998 0.515 0.694 3.412 0.427 0.512 21 864122 1743 1848 106 1.002 0.388 -0.001 2.463 0.431 0.159 22 864131 1671 1990 320 0.999 0.468 0.702 3.562 0.480 0.260 23 864132 1620 1990 371 1.000 0.456 0.297 2.790 0.471 0.297 24 864141 1815 1990 176 0.997 0.474 0.417 2.561 0.415 0.537 25 864142 1807 1990 184 1.000 0.556 0.627 3.155 0.484 0.571 26 864151 1862 1990 129 1.000 0.525 0.971 4.624 0.566 0.273 27 864152 1701 1956 256 1.000 0.500 0.375 2.565 0.550 0.262 28 864161 1563 1794 232 0.998 0.588 0.611 2.969 0.592 0.292 29 864162 1625 2220 596 1.000 0.623 1.177 5.042 0.558 0.443 30 864172 1784 2330 547 0.999 0.554 0.628 3.248 0.500 0.509 31 864182 1600 1990 391 1.000 0.480 0.517 3.022 0.478 0.373 32 864191 1709 1990 282 1.000 0.469 0.418 2.943 0.508 0.250 33 864192 1711 1990 280 0.999 0.593 0.665 2.686 0.548 0.441 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 243 1.000 0.524 0.730 3.682 0.497 0.364 STANDARD DEVIATION 125 0.002 0.060 0.359 1.082 0.068 0.187 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 213 1.000 0.513 0.691 3.432 0.484 0.349 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 161 0.001 0.089 0.298 1.473 0.110 0.252 MINIMUM VALUE 46 0.996 0.388 -0.145 1.992 0.372 -0.183 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 156 0.999 0.478 0.605 2.988 0.445 0.260 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 317 1.000 0.567 0.903 4.461 0.555 0.512 MAXIMUM VALUE 596 1.007 0.679 1.614 6.707 0.617 0.683 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 864011 -67 228 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 864012 -67 256 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 864022 -67 59 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 864031 -67 140 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 864032 -67 134 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 864041 -67 176 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 864051 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 864052 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 864061 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 864062 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 864071 -67 247 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 864072 -67 84 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 864081 -67 121 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 864082 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 864091 -67 115 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 864092 -67 104 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 864101 -67 147 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 864111 -67 30 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 864112 -67 201 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 864121 -67 212 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 864122 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 864131 -67 214 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 864132 -67 248 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 864141 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 864142 -67 123 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 864151 -67 86 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 864152 -67 171 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 28 864161 -67 155 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 29 864162 -67 399 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 30 864172 -67 366 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 31 864182 -67 261 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 32 864191 -67 188 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 33 864192 -67 187 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 864011 1650 1990 341 0.989 0.533 0.516 2.819 0.564 0.235 2 864012 1608 1990 383 0.996 0.565 0.760 3.255 0.602 0.173 3 864022 1902 1990 89 0.991 0.408 0.173 2.489 0.511 -0.054 4 864031 1782 1990 209 0.991 0.436 0.919 5.073 0.421 0.298 5 864032 1791 1990 200 0.978 0.529 1.048 4.028 0.409 0.560 6 864041 1727 1990 264 0.996 0.552 0.857 3.955 0.617 0.179 7 864051 1799 1906 108 0.987 0.499 0.907 3.421 0.483 0.334 8 864052 1744 1956 213 0.989 0.473 0.480 2.740 0.387 0.549 9 864061 1632 1770 139 0.998 0.521 0.840 3.705 0.555 0.257 10 864062 1620 1741 122 0.999 0.506 0.656 3.678 0.597 0.036 11 864071 1599 1967 369 0.995 0.456 0.529 3.601 0.461 0.305 12 864072 1865 1990 126 0.997 0.458 0.621 3.062 0.530 0.035 13 864081 1809 1990 182 0.991 0.451 0.875 4.751 0.426 0.380 14 864082 1796 1990 195 0.994 0.414 0.427 3.711 0.446 0.227 15 864091 1814 1986 173 0.992 0.451 0.416 2.910 0.499 0.162 16 864092 1835 1990 156 0.997 0.449 0.660 4.015 0.456 0.197 17 864101 1888 2107 220 0.985 0.489 0.502 2.858 0.372 0.596 18 864111 1945 1990 46 0.995 0.447 -0.237 2.230 0.593 -0.338 19 864112 1690 1990 301 0.972 0.567 1.437 6.162 0.454 0.583 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 864121 1674 1990 317 0.986 0.438 0.494 3.001 0.428 0.346 21 864122 1743 1848 106 0.995 0.369 -0.069 2.417 0.430 0.025 22 864131 1671 1990 320 0.998 0.451 0.562 3.223 0.480 0.205 23 864132 1620 1990 371 1.000 0.455 0.298 2.797 0.471 0.291 24 864141 1815 1990 176 0.994 0.435 0.272 2.609 0.415 0.435 25 864142 1807 1990 184 0.990 0.465 0.647 3.751 0.484 0.270 26 864151 1862 1990 129 0.996 0.490 0.597 3.618 0.566 0.168 27 864152 1701 1956 256 0.990 0.451 0.133 2.477 0.550 0.111 28 864161 1563 1794 232 0.984 0.531 0.475 3.030 0.592 0.200 29 864162 1625 2220 596 0.990 0.562 0.724 3.385 0.558 0.340 30 864172 1784 2330 547 0.996 0.530 0.562 3.363 0.500 0.476 31 864182 1600 1990 391 0.991 0.447 0.363 2.911 0.478 0.289 32 864191 1709 1990 282 0.992 0.439 0.279 2.802 0.508 0.169 33 864192 1711 1990 280 0.974 0.508 0.556 2.839 0.548 0.284 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 243 0.991 0.478 0.554 3.354 0.497 0.252 STANDARD DEVIATION 125 0.007 0.049 0.322 0.818 0.068 0.193 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 213 0.992 0.458 0.556 3.223 0.484 0.257 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 161 0.006 0.073 0.308 0.887 0.109 0.171 MINIMUM VALUE 46 0.972 0.369 -0.237 2.230 0.372 -0.338 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 156 0.989 0.447 0.416 2.819 0.446 0.169 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 317 0.996 0.521 0.724 3.705 0.555 0.340 MAXIMUM VALUE 596 1.000 0.567 1.437 6.162 0.617 0.596 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 469 0.547 0.115 0.005 -0.570 4.562 -0.052 0.884 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.052 SERIES 864111 AND 864172 46 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.884 SERIES 864081 AND 864082 182 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 88.83 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 18.73 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. CORR 15. 28. 36. 55. 91. 120. 105. 153. 253. 276. RBAR 0.602 0.605 0.507 0.602 0.638 0.524 0.504 0.514 0.644 0.535 SDEV 0.149 0.165 0.204 0.177 0.150 0.185 0.169 0.155 0.135 0.160 SERR 0.038 0.031 0.034 0.024 0.016 0.017 0.016 0.013 0.008 0.010 EPS 0.924 0.938 0.927 0.957 0.966 0.950 0.951 0.960 0.978 0.967 NSS 8.1 9.9 12.3 14.6 16.4 17.1 19.2 22.8 24.5 25.5 YEAR 1895. 1920. 1945. 1970. 1995. 2020. 2045. 2070. 2095. 2120. CORR 300. 325. 276. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. RBAR 0.582 0.657 0.644 0.426 0.159 -0.074 -0.187 -0.103 0.180 0.082 SDEV 0.138 0.101 0.120 0.162 0.207 0.096 0.313 0.239 0.239 0.239 SERR 0.008 0.006 0.007 0.094 0.120 0.055 0.181 0.138 0.000 0.000 EPS 0.974 0.981 0.980 0.947 0.698 -0.261 -0.899 -0.388 0.377 0.169 NSS 26.7 27.1 26.9 24.1 12.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.3 YEAR 2145. 2170. 2195. CORR 1. 1. 1. RBAR 0.125 0.069 -0.225 SDEV 0.239 0.239 0.239 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 EPS 0.222 0.129 -0.581 NSS 2.0 2.0 2.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1563 2330 768 0.985 0.393 0.266 2.983 0.441 0.219 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.211 0.128 0.150 145 623 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.44 1.00 1.12 1.56 27.95 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.26 0.00 0.74 1.00 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.219 0.220 0.161 0.197 0.153 0.128 0.106 0.021 0.068 0.059 PACF 0.219 0.180 0.089 0.126 0.064 0.033 0.019 -0.069 0.018 0.018 95% C.L. 0.072 0.076 0.079 0.080 0.083 0.084 0.085 0.086 0.086 0.086 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 5 0.106 0.144 0.140 0.059 0.117 0.065 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.153 0.272 0.110 0.139 0.142 0.056 0.092 0.015 0.012 0.024 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.153 2 0.114 0.254 3 0.103 0.249 0.043 4 0.100 0.235 0.037 0.058 5 0.095 0.231 0.016 0.049 0.092 6 0.097 0.232 0.016 0.054 0.094 -0.020 7 0.097 0.230 0.015 0.053 0.088 -0.023 0.025 8 0.098 0.229 0.017 0.055 0.088 -0.017 0.028 -0.027 9 0.097 0.230 0.017 0.058 0.090 -0.016 0.037 -0.023 -0.037 10 0.098 0.231 0.016 0.058 0.089 -0.017 0.036 -0.026 -0.039 0.013 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 7648.96 7632.80 7583.44 7583.99 7583.39 7578.89 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 7580.57 7582.07 7583.52 7584.45 7586.32 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.114 0.254 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.65 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 109.47 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.114 0.267 0.059 0.075 0.024 0.022 0.008 0.006 0.003 0.0020 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 864011 2 0.110 0.186 0.212 2 864012 2 0.059 0.145 0.169 3 864022 2 0.116 -0.037 0.336 4 864031 2 0.175 0.208 0.306 5 864032 2 0.470 0.303 0.460 6 864041 2 0.079 0.142 0.216 7 864051 2 0.133 0.284 0.153 8 864052 2 0.361 0.415 0.253 9 864061 2 0.091 0.227 0.129 10 864062 2 0.029 0.031 0.143 11 864071 2 0.155 0.237 0.226 12 864072 2 0.055 0.028 0.213 13 864081 2 0.227 0.267 0.305 14 864082 2 0.124 0.166 0.276 15 864091 2 0.055 0.143 0.152 16 864092 2 0.105 0.156 0.247 17 864101 2 0.422 0.407 0.318 18 864111 2 0.133 -0.329 0.079 19 864112 2 0.399 0.420 0.286 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 864121 2 0.210 0.240 0.312 21 864122 2 0.018 0.022 0.131 22 864131 2 0.070 0.177 0.140 23 864132 2 0.087 0.285 0.027 24 864141 2 0.217 0.371 0.161 25 864142 2 0.129 0.211 0.238 26 864151 2 0.089 0.130 0.237 27 864152 2 0.048 0.091 0.180 28 864161 2 0.113 0.161 0.195 29 864162 2 0.179 0.259 0.241 30 864172 2 0.285 0.361 0.241 31 864182 2 0.123 0.239 0.178 32 864191 2 0.063 0.138 0.187 33 864192 2 0.169 0.211 0.261 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.155 0.191 0.218 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.115 0.147 0.083 MEDIAN 2 0.123 0.208 0.216 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.100 0.124 0.100 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.018 -0.329 0.027 LOWER HINGE 2 0.079 0.142 0.161 UPPER HINGE 2 0.179 0.267 0.261 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.470 0.420 0.460 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 864011 1650 1990 341 1.001 0.503 0.405 3.017 0.599 -0.024 2 864012 1608 1990 383 1.001 0.547 0.705 3.258 0.630 -0.006 3 864022 1902 1990 89 1.000 0.384 -0.027 2.280 0.476 -0.019 4 864031 1782 1990 209 1.000 0.396 0.718 4.806 0.443 -0.006 5 864032 1791 1990 200 1.000 0.388 0.389 3.049 0.432 -0.064 6 864041 1727 1990 264 1.000 0.530 0.706 3.597 0.633 -0.008 7 864051 1799 1906 108 1.000 0.464 0.873 3.826 0.517 0.002 8 864052 1744 1956 213 1.000 0.379 0.310 3.239 0.440 -0.031 9 864061 1632 1770 139 1.000 0.499 0.588 3.181 0.606 -0.011 10 864062 1620 1741 122 1.000 0.501 0.562 3.619 0.611 -0.013 11 864071 1599 1967 369 1.000 0.422 0.359 3.571 0.507 -0.029 12 864072 1865 1990 126 1.000 0.447 0.572 3.007 0.534 -0.023 13 864081 1809 1990 182 1.000 0.397 0.393 3.883 0.461 -0.005 14 864082 1796 1990 195 1.000 0.387 0.301 3.470 0.457 -0.002 15 864091 1814 1986 173 1.000 0.439 0.400 3.000 0.513 0.009 16 864092 1835 1990 156 1.000 0.426 0.786 4.297 0.456 0.013 17 864101 1888 2107 220 1.002 0.363 0.179 3.247 0.411 0.004 18 864111 1945 1990 46 1.000 0.413 -0.299 2.264 0.486 0.018 19 864112 1690 1990 301 1.003 0.432 0.620 4.423 0.508 0.006 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 864121 1674 1990 317 1.000 0.388 0.275 2.913 0.453 -0.024 21 864122 1743 1848 106 1.000 0.366 -0.033 2.412 0.423 0.002 22 864131 1671 1990 320 1.000 0.437 0.403 3.133 0.520 -0.014 23 864132 1620 1990 371 1.000 0.434 0.123 2.643 0.532 0.000 24 864141 1815 1990 176 1.000 0.385 0.136 2.918 0.471 -0.001 25 864142 1807 1990 184 1.000 0.434 0.476 3.773 0.513 -0.005 26 864151 1862 1990 129 1.001 0.468 0.472 3.605 0.584 0.015 27 864152 1701 1956 256 1.000 0.440 0.096 2.552 0.548 0.011 28 864161 1563 1794 232 1.001 0.506 0.339 3.040 0.621 -0.034 29 864162 1625 2220 596 1.002 0.508 0.521 3.385 0.623 -0.022 30 864172 1784 2330 547 1.001 0.450 0.277 3.167 0.557 -0.027 31 864182 1600 1990 391 1.000 0.421 0.207 2.788 0.520 -0.021 32 864191 1709 1990 282 1.000 0.425 0.211 2.713 0.522 -0.005 33 864192 1711 1990 280 1.000 0.469 0.489 3.153 0.563 -0.045 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 243 1.000 0.438 0.380 3.249 0.520 -0.011 STANDARD DEVIATION 125 0.001 0.049 0.256 0.585 0.066 0.018 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 213 1.000 0.434 0.393 3.167 0.517 -0.006 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 161 0.000 0.072 0.351 0.679 0.102 0.025 MINIMUM VALUE 46 1.000 0.363 -0.299 2.264 0.411 -0.064 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 156 1.000 0.396 0.211 2.918 0.461 -0.023 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 317 1.000 0.468 0.562 3.597 0.563 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 596 1.003 0.547 0.873 4.806 0.633 0.018 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 469 0.590 0.108 0.005 -1.059 7.351 -0.122 0.887 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.122 SERIES 864111 AND 864172 46 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.887 SERIES 864081 AND 864082 182 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 88.83 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 18.73 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1645. 1670. 1695. 1720. 1745. 1770. 1795. 1820. 1845. 1870. CORR 15. 28. 36. 55. 91. 120. 105. 153. 253. 276. RBAR 0.671 0.642 0.557 0.656 0.645 0.546 0.500 0.557 0.691 0.602 SDEV 0.101 0.165 0.196 0.143 0.133 0.167 0.183 0.168 0.130 0.120 SERR 0.026 0.031 0.033 0.019 0.014 0.015 0.018 0.014 0.008 0.007 EPS 0.943 0.947 0.939 0.965 0.968 0.953 0.950 0.966 0.982 0.975 NSS 8.1 9.9 12.3 14.6 16.4 17.1 19.2 22.8 24.5 25.5 YEAR 1895. 1920. 1945. 1970. 1995. 2020. 2045. 2070. 2095. 2120. CORR 300. 325. 276. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. RBAR 0.624 0.650 0.650 0.336 0.048 0.031 -0.007 0.009 -0.030 0.051 SDEV 0.095 0.085 0.099 0.153 0.076 0.064 0.152 0.068 0.068 0.068 SERR 0.005 0.005 0.006 0.088 0.044 0.037 0.088 0.039 0.000 0.000 EPS 0.978 0.980 0.980 0.924 0.378 0.086 -0.021 0.027 -0.087 0.108 NSS 26.7 27.1 26.9 24.1 12.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.3 YEAR 2145. 2170. 2195. CORR 1. 1. 1. RBAR 0.108 0.143 -0.036 SDEV 0.068 0.068 0.068 SERR 0.000 0.000 0.000 EPS 0.195 0.250 -0.074 NSS 2.0 2.0 2.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1563 2330 768 0.995 0.371 0.095 2.934 0.472 -0.078 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.154 0.085 0.149 148 620 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.87 1.00 1.08 1.95 10.34 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.93 0.24 0.00 0.76 1.00 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.078 -0.097 0.003 0.085 0.052 0.030 0.038 -0.057 0.030 0.040 PACF -0.078 -0.103 -0.013 0.076 0.067 0.057 0.059 -0.049 0.019 0.023 95% C.L. 0.072 0.073 0.073 0.073 0.074 0.074 0.074 0.074 0.074 0.074 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.017 -0.086 -0.104 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.001 0.007 0.000 0.086 0.069 0.042 0.045 -0.045 0.030 0.038 PACF -0.001 0.007 0.000 0.086 0.070 0.042 0.046 -0.053 0.017 0.027 95% C.L. 0.072 0.072 0.072 0.072 0.073 0.073 0.073 0.073 0.073 0.074 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.000 -0.001 0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1563 2330 768 0.995 0.389 0.225 2.975 0.441 0.168 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.168 0.307 0.109 0.185 0.126 0.097 0.088 0.008 0.050 0.049 PACF 0.168 0.287 0.027 0.092 0.065 0.000 0.018 -0.057 0.006 0.043 95% C.L. 0.072 0.074 0.081 0.081 0.083 0.084 0.085 0.085 0.085 0.086 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.110 0.120 0.288 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.42 MINUTES