RUN: RUSS001 FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: RUSS032E.rwl.conv LOG FILE PROCESSED: RUSS032E.rwl.conv_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 875 1 Nadim-River WIDTH_EARLY PCOB - 875 2 Russia Black Spuce 80 6608-7140 1720 1990 - 875 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 2 875012 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1911 1915 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 875032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 21 IN 1 GAPS / 1932 1952 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 875051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 4 IN 1 GAPS / 1923 1926 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 0.783 0.417 0.385 2.079 0.276 0.790 2 875012 1899 1990 92 0.868 0.418 0.658 2.773 0.205 0.830 3 875021 1738 1990 253 0.343 0.166 0.927 4.086 0.336 0.636 4 875022 1720 1990 271 0.410 0.214 0.907 4.359 0.301 0.717 5 875031 1775 1990 216 0.436 0.197 2.170 11.923 0.269 0.530 6 875032 1801 1990 190 0.375 0.182 0.329 2.796 0.263 0.715 7 875041 1852 1990 139 0.382 0.168 0.813 3.810 0.286 0.630 8 875042 1860 1982 123 0.378 0.155 1.414 6.122 0.263 0.613 9 875051 1883 1990 108 0.501 0.204 1.386 6.084 0.257 0.640 10 875052 1890 1990 101 0.561 0.288 1.134 3.998 0.278 0.716 11 875071 1843 1897 55 0.617 0.202 0.557 3.088 0.321 0.340 12 875072 1843 1990 148 0.435 0.218 0.465 2.332 0.277 0.737 13 875081 1885 1990 106 0.752 0.298 1.205 4.222 0.210 0.746 14 875082 1876 1990 115 0.642 0.293 1.259 4.098 0.212 0.821 15 875091 1753 1990 238 0.308 0.196 1.037 3.832 0.324 0.809 16 875092 1766 1951 186 0.315 0.207 1.375 5.231 0.346 0.717 17 875101 1762 1935 174 0.284 0.153 0.596 3.011 0.411 0.674 18 875102 1760 1935 176 0.340 0.213 0.787 2.986 0.404 0.763 19 875111 1797 1990 194 0.249 0.112 1.059 4.354 0.270 0.670 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 0.233 0.183 1.860 6.865 0.342 0.799 21 875131 1777 1990 214 0.233 0.128 0.930 3.321 0.375 0.666 22 875132 1808 1990 183 0.353 0.175 0.747 2.933 0.372 0.588 23 875142 1786 1860 75 0.528 0.227 0.317 2.420 0.290 0.678 24 875143 1798 2010 213 0.358 0.177 0.577 3.152 0.318 0.704 25 875172 1918 1990 73 0.409 0.212 1.757 6.124 0.233 0.791 26 875181 1922 1990 69 0.517 0.201 0.829 3.059 0.298 0.552 27 875182 1922 1990 69 0.681 0.241 0.065 2.783 0.257 0.617 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 27 FROM 1720 TO 2010 291 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 151 0.455 0.216 0.946 4.142 0.296 0.685 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.173 0.073 0.500 2.011 0.055 0.106 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 0.409 0.202 0.907 3.810 0.286 0.704 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.202 0.047 0.646 1.397 0.067 0.121 MINIMUM VALUE 55 0.233 0.112 0.065 2.079 0.205 0.340 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.342 0.176 0.586 2.960 0.263 0.633 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 0.544 0.223 1.232 4.356 0.330 0.754 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 0.868 0.418 2.170 11.923 0.411 0.830 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.410 0.333 0.018 -0.787 2.594 -0.488 0.906 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.488 SERIES 875091 AND 875182 69 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.906 SERIES 875101 AND 875102 174 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.31 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 36. 78. 78. 105. 136. 171. 231. RBAR 0.452 0.451 0.499 0.508 0.446 0.457 0.581 0.398 SDEV 0.156 0.256 0.201 0.226 0.333 0.245 0.232 0.270 SERR 0.090 0.043 0.023 0.026 0.032 0.021 0.018 0.018 EPS 0.871 0.909 0.935 0.943 0.938 0.948 0.970 0.937 NSS 8.2 12.2 14.5 16.1 18.8 21.8 23.2 22.7 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.376 0.129 0.502 3.122 0.237 0.581 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.442 0.364 0.025 93 198 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.28 0.59 1.01 1.09 1.68 6.88 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.12 0.00 0.81 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 148. 107. 55. 96. 204. 271. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.579 0.577 0.472 0.454 0.374 0.322 0.259 0.223 0.235 0.206 PACF 0.579 0.364 0.084 0.094 -0.005 -0.029 -0.038 -0.011 0.086 0.029 95% C.L. 0.117 0.152 0.179 0.196 0.210 0.219 0.225 0.229 0.232 0.235 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 4 0.434 0.329 0.303 0.053 0.093 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 875011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01112418 1.30053508 2 875012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01235437 1.48261333 3 875021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00057678 0.27022681 4 875022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00072965 0.50890034 5 875031 1 0.63689560 0.05624945 0.00000000 0.38552415 6 875032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00177245 0.53781861 7 875041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00158466 0.49272442 8 875042 1 0.45786965 0.00619319 0.00000000 0.05875694 9 875051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00348451 0.69771671 10 875052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00565440 0.84896833 11 875071 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00251515 0.54630303 12 875072 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00341266 0.68877000 13 875081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00153392 0.83414018 14 875082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00188692 0.75118077 15 875091 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00142984 0.47838634 16 875092 1 0.49381539 0.01573824 0.00000000 0.15643960 17 875101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00203226 0.46190286 18 875102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00281669 0.58973116 19 875111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00126409 0.37206346 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 875112 1 0.62388688 0.02030576 0.00000000 0.09741334 21 875131 1 0.36240453 0.01467616 0.00000000 0.12331276 22 875132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00179754 0.51821536 23 875142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00430441 0.69143420 24 875143 1 0.28562382 0.04615759 0.00000000 0.32978478 25 875172 1 0.63755780 0.01908749 0.00000000 0.06848172 26 875181 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00455864 0.35740408 27 875182 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00778297 0.40846547 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 0.985 0.332 0.052 2.707 0.273 0.549 2 875012 1899 1990 92 0.996 0.298 0.114 2.269 0.206 0.629 3 875021 1738 1990 253 0.998 0.475 1.325 7.098 0.335 0.595 4 875022 1720 1990 271 0.995 0.487 0.784 3.981 0.300 0.679 5 875031 1775 1990 216 1.000 0.350 0.650 3.814 0.268 0.471 6 875032 1801 1990 190 0.988 0.409 0.691 3.285 0.254 0.683 7 875041 1852 1990 139 0.996 0.396 0.909 4.513 0.285 0.544 8 875042 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.350 0.968 4.824 0.261 0.495 9 875051 1883 1990 108 0.998 0.312 0.949 5.481 0.251 0.482 10 875052 1890 1990 101 0.992 0.367 0.740 3.323 0.275 0.547 11 875071 1843 1897 55 1.000 0.322 0.589 3.077 0.314 0.316 12 875072 1843 1990 148 0.993 0.390 1.159 4.361 0.276 0.599 13 875081 1885 1990 106 0.999 0.381 1.074 4.132 0.208 0.722 14 875082 1876 1990 115 0.998 0.432 1.216 4.286 0.210 0.799 15 875091 1753 1990 238 0.988 0.522 0.737 2.954 0.323 0.731 16 875092 1766 1951 186 1.003 0.532 0.994 3.913 0.344 0.580 17 875101 1762 1935 174 0.986 0.391 0.250 2.699 0.408 0.309 18 875102 1760 1935 176 0.992 0.441 0.578 3.239 0.402 0.472 19 875111 1797 1990 194 0.998 0.324 0.382 2.729 0.268 0.422 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 0.992 0.409 0.562 3.223 0.341 0.486 21 875131 1777 1990 214 0.999 0.394 0.678 3.629 0.373 0.348 22 875132 1808 1990 183 0.999 0.412 0.741 3.607 0.370 0.404 23 875142 1786 1860 75 0.995 0.407 0.767 3.431 0.286 0.615 24 875143 1798 2010 213 0.999 0.481 0.608 3.322 0.316 0.692 25 875172 1918 1990 73 1.001 0.326 0.247 2.886 0.230 0.583 26 875181 1922 1990 69 1.001 0.356 1.253 5.317 0.293 0.409 27 875182 1922 1990 69 0.996 0.286 0.745 4.990 0.254 0.400 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 0.996 0.392 0.732 3.818 0.293 0.539 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.005 0.067 0.334 1.060 0.055 0.132 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 0.998 0.391 0.740 3.607 0.285 0.547 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.007 0.081 0.375 1.174 0.071 0.175 MINIMUM VALUE 54 0.985 0.286 0.052 2.269 0.206 0.309 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.993 0.341 0.583 3.150 0.257 0.446 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 0.999 0.422 0.958 4.324 0.329 0.622 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.003 0.532 1.325 7.098 0.408 0.799 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 875011 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 875012 -67 61 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 875021 -67 169 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 875022 -67 181 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 875031 -67 144 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 875032 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 875041 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 875042 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 875051 -67 72 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 875052 -67 67 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 875071 -67 36 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 875072 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 875081 -67 71 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 875082 -67 77 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 875091 -67 159 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 875092 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 875101 -67 116 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 875102 -67 117 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 875111 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 875112 -67 148 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 875131 -67 143 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 875132 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 875142 -67 50 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 875143 -67 142 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 875172 -67 48 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 875181 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 27 875182 -67 46 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 0.995 0.297 -0.099 3.200 0.273 0.457 2 875012 1899 1990 92 0.995 0.270 -0.010 2.233 0.205 0.553 3 875021 1738 1990 253 0.993 0.449 2.100 14.127 0.335 0.530 4 875022 1720 1990 271 0.994 0.403 0.702 3.800 0.301 0.543 5 875031 1775 1990 216 0.995 0.295 0.786 4.653 0.267 0.299 6 875032 1801 1990 190 0.994 0.343 0.408 3.023 0.254 0.548 7 875041 1852 1990 139 0.990 0.297 0.495 4.086 0.285 0.284 8 875042 1860 1982 123 0.994 0.321 0.925 4.334 0.260 0.427 9 875051 1883 1990 108 0.994 0.264 0.531 4.495 0.250 0.343 10 875052 1890 1990 101 0.992 0.305 0.320 2.663 0.274 0.385 11 875071 1843 1897 55 0.996 0.304 0.493 2.860 0.315 0.243 12 875072 1843 1990 148 0.995 0.359 0.938 3.944 0.276 0.519 13 875081 1885 1990 106 0.992 0.249 0.378 3.264 0.207 0.435 14 875082 1876 1990 115 0.993 0.255 0.352 3.725 0.210 0.513 15 875091 1753 1990 238 0.973 0.442 0.668 2.916 0.323 0.633 16 875092 1766 1951 186 0.976 0.452 0.846 3.587 0.344 0.491 17 875101 1762 1935 174 0.997 0.382 0.339 2.918 0.408 0.198 18 875102 1760 1935 176 0.988 0.391 0.307 2.658 0.401 0.308 19 875111 1797 1990 194 0.996 0.303 0.277 2.667 0.268 0.363 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 0.995 0.359 0.404 2.893 0.341 0.288 21 875131 1777 1990 214 0.997 0.369 0.379 3.006 0.373 0.283 22 875132 1808 1990 183 0.995 0.392 0.572 3.257 0.370 0.356 23 875142 1786 1860 75 0.989 0.326 0.467 2.919 0.283 0.453 24 875143 1798 2010 213 0.987 0.421 0.741 4.016 0.316 0.588 25 875172 1918 1990 73 0.997 0.315 0.193 2.961 0.230 0.562 26 875181 1922 1990 69 0.991 0.299 1.064 4.680 0.292 0.231 27 875182 1922 1990 69 0.998 0.268 0.676 4.588 0.253 0.332 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 0.992 0.338 0.565 3.832 0.293 0.414 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.006 0.061 0.413 2.175 0.056 0.124 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 0.994 0.321 0.493 3.257 0.283 0.427 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.004 0.089 0.376 1.134 0.072 0.221 MINIMUM VALUE 54 0.973 0.249 -0.099 2.233 0.205 0.198 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 0.992 0.297 0.345 2.917 0.257 0.303 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 0.995 0.386 0.722 4.051 0.329 0.524 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 0.998 0.452 2.100 14.127 0.408 0.633 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.408 0.159 0.009 -0.226 2.761 -0.033 0.801 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.033 SERIES 875072 AND 875181 69 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.801 SERIES 875051 AND 875052 101 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.31 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 36. 78. 78. 105. 136. 171. 231. RBAR 0.420 0.509 0.494 0.494 0.458 0.543 0.515 0.408 SDEV 0.210 0.184 0.197 0.188 0.228 0.177 0.184 0.222 SERR 0.121 0.031 0.022 0.021 0.022 0.015 0.014 0.015 EPS 0.855 0.927 0.934 0.940 0.941 0.963 0.961 0.940 NSS 8.2 12.2 14.5 16.1 18.8 21.8 23.2 22.7 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.981 0.291 0.560 3.436 0.254 0.403 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.098 0.049 0.183 75 216 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.62 1.00 1.09 1.71 8.01 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.88 0.11 0.00 0.83 0.94 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.402 0.428 0.295 0.261 0.173 0.112 0.024 -0.004 -0.020 -0.043 PACF 0.402 0.318 0.066 0.042 -0.024 -0.048 -0.087 -0.040 0.004 -0.008 95% C.L. 0.117 0.135 0.152 0.160 0.166 0.168 0.169 0.169 0.169 0.169 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.261 0.271 0.331 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.320 0.440 0.262 0.219 0.112 0.062 -0.064 -0.044 -0.065 -0.107 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.320 2 0.199 0.377 3 0.173 0.363 0.070 4 0.174 0.367 0.072 -0.011 5 0.173 0.372 0.095 0.000 -0.065 6 0.169 0.372 0.101 0.021 -0.055 -0.057 7 0.162 0.364 0.104 0.035 -0.005 -0.034 -0.134 8 0.159 0.363 0.103 0.035 -0.003 -0.026 -0.131 -0.022 9 0.160 0.368 0.104 0.036 -0.004 -0.030 -0.144 -0.028 0.036 10 0.161 0.367 0.099 0.034 -0.004 -0.028 -0.139 -0.013 0.043 -0.040 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 2436.79 2407.39 2364.85 2365.44 2367.40 2368.18 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 2369.24 2365.96 2367.83 2369.44 2370.97 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.199 0.377 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 22.97 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 129.82 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.199 0.416 0.158 0.188 0.097 0.090 0.055 0.045 0.030 0.0228 0.016 0.012 0.008 0.006 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.0008 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 875011 2 0.247 0.421 0.103 2 875012 2 0.344 0.441 0.212 3 875021 2 0.309 0.440 0.174 4 875022 2 0.360 0.401 0.271 5 875031 2 0.157 0.221 0.268 6 875032 2 0.358 0.404 0.268 7 875041 2 0.121 0.244 0.147 8 875042 2 0.226 0.347 0.188 9 875051 2 0.163 0.271 0.217 10 875052 2 0.207 0.288 0.256 11 875071 2 0.124 0.230 0.057 12 875072 2 0.358 0.340 0.347 13 875081 2 0.252 0.317 0.274 14 875082 2 0.309 0.407 0.217 15 875091 2 0.490 0.388 0.387 16 875092 2 0.354 0.314 0.363 17 875101 2 0.156 0.130 0.347 18 875102 2 0.209 0.205 0.338 19 875111 2 0.232 0.246 0.333 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 875112 2 0.147 0.214 0.262 21 875131 2 0.149 0.207 0.267 22 875132 2 0.270 0.216 0.394 23 875142 2 0.257 0.347 0.244 24 875143 2 0.382 0.452 0.232 25 875172 2 0.325 0.577 -0.018 26 875181 2 0.062 0.215 0.083 27 875182 2 0.118 0.310 0.072 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.248 0.318 0.233 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.104 0.103 0.107 MEDIAN 2 0.247 0.314 0.256 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.178 0.177 0.123 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.062 0.130 -0.018 LOWER HINGE 2 0.157 0.225 0.181 UPPER HINGE 2 0.335 0.402 0.304 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.490 0.577 0.394 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 875011 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.260 -0.203 2.857 0.310 0.005 2 875012 1899 1990 92 1.000 0.218 0.042 2.966 0.242 0.001 3 875021 1738 1990 253 1.000 0.374 1.825 11.579 0.393 0.013 4 875022 1720 1990 271 1.000 0.322 0.918 4.565 0.351 -0.033 5 875031 1775 1990 216 1.000 0.270 0.510 3.929 0.290 0.008 6 875032 1801 1990 190 1.000 0.275 0.876 4.037 0.289 -0.023 7 875041 1852 1990 139 1.000 0.282 0.400 3.996 0.311 0.019 8 875042 1860 1982 123 1.000 0.285 0.626 3.654 0.299 0.025 9 875051 1883 1990 108 1.000 0.242 0.643 5.107 0.273 0.015 10 875052 1890 1990 101 1.000 0.272 0.534 3.597 0.305 -0.004 11 875071 1843 1897 55 1.000 0.295 0.325 2.848 0.360 0.015 12 875072 1843 1990 148 1.000 0.287 1.157 5.116 0.306 -0.007 13 875081 1885 1990 106 1.000 0.215 0.482 4.022 0.237 -0.001 14 875082 1876 1990 115 1.000 0.213 0.103 3.490 0.250 0.018 15 875091 1753 1990 238 1.000 0.315 0.213 2.683 0.361 -0.010 16 875092 1766 1951 186 1.000 0.366 0.772 3.674 0.397 -0.050 17 875101 1762 1935 174 1.000 0.351 0.209 2.634 0.409 -0.011 18 875102 1760 1935 176 1.000 0.349 0.244 3.089 0.418 -0.037 19 875111 1797 1990 194 1.000 0.265 0.106 2.839 0.299 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 875112 1770 1990 221 1.000 0.331 0.571 3.684 0.364 0.001 21 875131 1777 1990 214 1.000 0.341 0.376 3.157 0.397 -0.016 22 875132 1808 1990 183 1.000 0.336 0.563 3.268 0.385 -0.036 23 875142 1786 1860 75 1.000 0.281 0.397 2.831 0.315 0.008 24 875143 1798 2010 213 1.000 0.330 0.507 3.640 0.376 -0.006 25 875172 1918 1990 73 1.000 0.259 0.438 3.466 0.290 -0.006 26 875181 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.289 0.870 4.391 0.323 -0.005 27 875182 1922 1990 69 1.000 0.252 0.506 3.778 0.293 -0.003 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 152 1.000 0.292 0.519 3.885 0.327 -0.004 STANDARD DEVIATION 63 0.000 0.046 0.396 1.680 0.052 0.019 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 148 1.000 0.285 0.506 3.640 0.311 -0.003 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 107 0.000 0.068 0.350 0.982 0.078 0.018 MINIMUM VALUE 54 1.000 0.213 -0.203 2.634 0.237 -0.050 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 96 1.000 0.262 0.285 3.027 0.292 -0.010 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 203 1.000 0.331 0.634 4.009 0.370 0.008 MAXIMUM VALUE 271 1.000 0.374 1.825 11.579 0.418 0.025 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 324 0.434 0.152 0.008 -0.404 2.901 -0.025 0.836 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.025 SERIES 875112 AND 875181 69 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.836 SERIES 875142 AND 875143 63 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 92.31 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 35.27 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1780. 1805. 1830. 1855. 1880. 1905. 1930. 1955. CORR 3. 36. 78. 78. 105. 136. 171. 231. RBAR 0.524 0.563 0.566 0.551 0.504 0.552 0.520 0.445 SDEV 0.066 0.093 0.126 0.128 0.138 0.139 0.170 0.224 SERR 0.038 0.015 0.014 0.014 0.013 0.012 0.013 0.015 EPS 0.900 0.940 0.950 0.952 0.950 0.964 0.962 0.948 NSS 8.2 12.2 14.5 16.1 18.8 21.8 23.2 22.7 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.988 0.242 0.517 3.806 0.278 -0.082 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.226 0.094 0.084 79 212 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.76 1.00 1.13 1.89 37.71 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.14 0.00 0.82 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.082 -0.026 0.041 0.067 0.022 0.001 -0.078 -0.033 -0.016 -0.064 PACF -0.082 -0.033 0.036 0.074 0.037 0.008 -0.083 -0.056 -0.034 -0.066 95% C.L. 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 0.120 0.120 0.120 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.002 0.006 0.043 0.073 0.027 -0.003 -0.082 -0.044 -0.027 -0.064 PACF 0.002 0.006 0.043 0.073 0.027 -0.006 -0.090 -0.054 -0.030 -0.058 95% C.L. 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.117 0.118 0.118 0.118 0.119 0.119 0.119 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 0.002 0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1720 2010 291 0.990 0.283 0.504 3.281 0.252 0.359 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.357 0.474 0.263 0.270 0.138 0.093 -0.003 -0.022 -0.029 -0.065 PACF 0.357 0.397 0.026 0.028 -0.051 -0.067 -0.085 -0.036 0.031 -0.020 95% C.L. 0.117 0.131 0.153 0.159 0.165 0.167 0.168 0.168 0.168 0.168 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.273 0.214 0.406 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.24 MINUTES